Total +250.64 Pts (3rd June 2020- 25th Aug 2022)
- April -1.26 pts.
- May +6.17 pts
- June +23.25 Pts
- July +4.85 pts
- Aug +22.82pts
- Sep +7.7pts
- Flat Season Total stakes (2/10) 117.5 Pts
- Returns 190.13 Pts = +72.63 pts = 61.81% Roi
1.33 compiegne Raffles Odeon 1pt win 7/2 General….
Royal margeaux will attempt to make all here at listed level after winning a grade 1 in Italy last time and obviously its very plausible that she may manage it, however despite raffles odeon only just getting off the mark in novice company , he has kept good quality opposition. He was a good 2nd and clear of the rest last time having ran in to one who I rate highly and who I’d be confident is a very smart sort in Il Est Francais.
I’d been half hoping that Raffles Odeon would make the move over here to willie as a novice, and i would have fancied his chances of making it up to graded level, as again I think he’s potentially very useful. I think he’s capable of getting to royale margeaux late on here, and if he does so, I wouldn’t particularly fancy her to fight back, so ideally she will be given some respect and she won’t be given too much rope out front.
There will be a selection tomorrow (sat) and that will round off the daily bets for this season. I have been happy with this seasons daily bets, I think I have performed almost very well in the way I narrowed down selections and in my staking apart from July. Despite it still being a profitable month, I was genuinely dissapointed in my performance there as i can obviously see a larger ammount of possible selections that im cutting down from, but mainly it was my under staking that was pretty poor.
With that said, I won’t be particularly hard on myself there, as on a whole its very solid work and i would be operating with a ROI and strike rate that is right out of the top draw. I had purposely staked right down from an already very responsible staking plan, and we reached the seasonal target i had set out for me to get to with absolute ease without ever being in the negative. I’d be happy with each and every selection I put up, win or lose.
I will target Ascot Antepost again next season, and again I found that pretty easy. Likewise I will also watch the Arab races again all season to target the race again on Arc day, which we’ve had the winner of on here for the last few years. I personally think it adds something a little different to the day, in a race that most likely skip over.
For those that are members who are following on to CHELT there will be some Antepost NH selections and race cards, as well as obviously our Chelt selections themselves. I will be selective for sure but we may or may not end up with a very slightly bigger hand there than usual over all, depending on opportunities. I had already purposely elected to lose what I’d be earning from subscriptions to the daily bets during the NH season to give myself the time to leave no stone unturned with our chelt bets.
As always, There would and will be zero excuses why we dont go in to the festival with a decent hand, and from there I will leave it down to a bit of luck on the day.
12.25 compiegne jollydam du breuil 6/1 sky 0.5pts EW (4p,) 3p various…
She gave away weight last time in what imo looked to be a very strong looking grade 3 against her own sex. It was fairly testing conditions off a 4 month break and she didn’t find the change of gear which she had shown prior In lesser company. This is her chase debut, and if she runs to the level of her prior starts over hurdles, then i respect the company she has kept, and imo she is weighted to be well involved here.
1.33 Auteuil Goliath du rheu 0.5 pts EW 8/1 PP / 7/1 bet365 ..
2.50 Auteuil Niko Has 0.5 pts EW 7/1 bet365
2.40 Ascot Sea la rosa 0.5 pts EW 13/2 hills (5P) sky..
3.20 Ascot Jadoomi 0.5 pts EW 8/1 sky / hills / pp…
GDR has a progressive profile despite finishing 4th last time. He was on level weights with the one to beat in this st Donats, while this time he receives 4 pounds and is open to further improvement. That was the best race that he has ran in last time, and I think he will be better for the experience. He showed his class prior when winning a lesser event, and i believe he is capable of closing the gap.
Niko has last ran in the grand Steeple Chase de paris and he finished a solid 4th despite making a notable mistake 2 out. He has been freshened up with a hurdles victory over an inadequate trip, which shows his class, and he comes in here back up in trip over fences with valid credentials. .
Sea la rosa has been a solid type all season and a model of consistency. She is dropping back in trip and has a willing attitude and the stamina to finish her race well, whilst she dosen’t lack tactical pace to get in to a decent position. Lilac Road was just touched off in France last time, coming off the back of what imo was a career best when finishing 4th behind alpanista and la petite coco. She has backed that run up, and imo she is on the incline. As an outside chance, She only has to have the race run as a test of stamina, for her to come forward a shade, and come home late to be potentially involved at the finish here, but eternal pearl, mimikyu, eshaada, and Emily upjohn, are all dangers. Its a very competitive race.
I have been impressed with what jadoomi has found off the bridle and how he has hit the line strongly. The way he is now finishing his race, I think there is more there to give, and he is capable of causing a shock here.
1.50 Newmarket crispy cat 0.5 pts EW 9/2 bet365 4 (places) 5/1 hills 3 places.. 9/2 sky betv betf…
Crispy cat has been solid all season and has kept good company. He was very unfortunate to run in to trouble at Royal ascot where he probably should have won, and he has far from disgraced himself since in better races. I’d expect him to travel well, and he does find off the bridle, so this looks to be a good opportunity to potentially go very close at group level.
ARC DE TRIOMPHE ANTEPOST
-1 POINT 0.5 PTS EW
LA PETITE COCO all Ante-post flat races run through the daily bets as part of the subcription, so I have obviously taken a point off the monthly total for our 0.5 pts EW Long term Ante-post selection, which unfortunately did not make it to the race.
Sunday 2.25 longchamp Lady Princess 2 pts EW 4/1 b364 (5 places) coral/ Lads / sky/ PP/ betfred (4P).
I have a very good record in this race, and it is one that most people likely put the kettle on during, however this is an exceptional renewal of the Arabian world cup that is not to be missed.
Soko and hadi carerre should both be very prominent here and both will have a chance of making all. Abbes is rock solid and will be bang there, as should be first class, while I’d expect this race to be set up for Ebraz to come home nicely and potentially roll back the years.
Hoggar de l’ardus is very smart, he has had a solid prep race, and he will have every chance of coming in to the race and retaining his title, however for me this race is all about the timing of lady princess. She travels nicely so there will be no excuses for her not to find the right position to use her change of gear, and imo that position is directly In line with hoggar de l’ardus on the run for home. I believe she stalks him, then does him for a change of gear on the run in. Lady princess Should go very close here, and she holds every chance of winning this. So win or lose, I have purposely held back over the last week, while waiting to put her up in this race, to make sure we are betting responsibly as we take a decent cut at her.
12.58 longchamp Solenzana 0.25pts EW 9/2 b365, 4/1various (3p)
I banged in a winner of the main arabian race last year at the arc meeting in Hoggar De L’ardus and I am well up to date with the horses in this sphere. Solenzana gave 1kg away and was beaten by 3 of todays rivals last time, However she suffered some minor misfortune in running and was ridden very much as a prep with this race in mind. She is off level weights, I would expect her to be more prominently ridden here, and while she doesn’t have a change of gear, she will keep up to the task, and that should see her closely involved in a decent race that should hopefully the appetite for a very strong fancy in what looks to be an absolutely outstanding renewal of the arabian world cup tomorrow.
11.15 Auteil Jazzy matty 0.25 pts EW b365…
1.42 Auteuil Jollydam du breuil 0.5 pts EW 5/1 b365…
Jazzy matty formerly known as “Jamestown” was purchased at the same sale which the Triumph hurdle 2nd Fil dor was purchased last season, by the same Sire, for the same connections from the same farm. This dosent mean that he will end up a triumph hurdle horse himself, however he starts out here for Gab Leenders to build experience before potentially moving over to Gordon elliot. There seems to be a fair bit of hype around him, due to me mentioning him for the boodles about 8 months ago.. and He indeed may become notable for the likes of the boodles depending on the results shown in France going forward.
He’s well bred, he has had plenty of time to school, and you’d like to think he’d potentially be capable of being involved in the finish here. This is far from a gimme, and he will likely be well backed and go off underpriced at SP.
Jollydam du breuil recieved a fair bit of weight when beating angela du berlais and villa Rica as the outsider of the 3, so while at face value the revised terms could see that form reversed, I did like the manner of her victory and I thought that she hit the line nicely, therefore I think she is capable of potentially upholding that form even with the revised terms. Namur has also carries 10st 7 and had been knocking on the door before she managed to get off the mark last time in a good manner from the progressive isaline de chandou. She would look to be the clear one to beat here, again of revised terms.
3.40 curragh maybe just maybe. 0.25 ots EW 13/2 sky 4P. … 8/1 PP (3P)
The fav will be strongly suited by the drop back to 7F here. She will travel supremely well and she will very likely be odds on going well in to the final furlong. Maybe just maybe has been beaten fair and square in good company on her last few starts, but I have been impressed with her attitude. I thought she was made a bit too much use of when tracking Caroline Street on the rail last time out, but again i was pleased again with what she found off the bridle, even though it was asked for a little too soon. I’d like to see her held right up here, and I can see a scenario where the fav and dower house could get at it pretty early on, so maybe just maybe could go from off the bridle in the rear, to coming late with a wet sail. I think it’s plausible that she can stay on in to atleast the places.
Auteuil 3.25 Diamond Carl 2 pts win 15/8 b365 7/4 general
Chelt Antepost members should have a bit of interest in this from one we have backed previously in behind him, and a view on Diamond Carl. To put it bluntly I think he’s going to be well involved in the future of French NH racing, so this is his step up and an acid test. It’s a big rise in grade against grade 1 winners, and I’ll look silly if he’s beaten, however I genuinely think he’s going to run away with this and go away at the line. I think he’s very, very good, and ultimately we will find out here.
3.15 Centrefold 0.25 pts EW 6/1 sky/PP/Boyles/Betfred….
Centrefold is one that I heard a fair bit about before her debut, and she had been hammered early while I was waiting for her to be widely priced up. She is well regarded and she has shown a fair bit of promise on her 2 starts to date. She travels very sweetly and she gives the impression in running that she will find more than she has to date. I wasn’t too enthusiastic about her ride last time as I thought she was ridden over confidently and was asked too late. She was green and was picking up again just before the line. I’d like to see the button pressed earlier here. This is a tougher race than she hasn’t managed to win to date, so it’s a fair ask, she will need to find improvement, however i do expect to see it. Annie maher is one who breezed very well and cost a fortune before being found to have a wind problem after her debut. She travels very well, and will be absolutely bang there on the run in, however she has the same lack of finish to date as Centrefold. Annie maher could well win this with ehat she has already shown, but with the expected improvement I see in centrefold, I will take a chance that she has learned enough from her 2 runs, to now find off the bridle and take a step forward.
5.45 kempton Lord Uhtred 2 pts insure/ cover bet 7/4 (3P) bet365 ..
Firstly the 7/4 is considerable value, and I’ll note that this price is only available in 1 place, so I’ll be backing at whatever odds i can get at 9am.. and ill settle at the insurebet odds that are available just before the race goes off. Imo anything above evens is fair. We backed him on debut after I had seen his breeze, and he received an awful ride to come home well. I had waited all week to put him up again before he opened up short enough and was only cut further. He was ridden far more prominently there and ran an absolute stormer. He got in to a long battle with a useful one, and the winner managed to come over the top late on to mug the pair at the line. I have little doubt that he’s the best horse out of that race, and with how that race has worked out, it sets a very fair standard here. He should go close.
2.25 Newbury mitbaahy 0.25 pts EW 7/1 b365 (4p)
3.25 Newbury ottoman fleet 0.25 pts EW 11/2 sky 5P.. 6/1 (4P) various…
3.05 Ayr all the time 0.25 pts EW 7/1 b365 (4p,) 13/2 various…
4.15 Ayr loyal touch 0.25 pts EW 13/2 pp betv (4P)
it’s fairly rare where I find it hard to split what I am narrowing down from. There is no standout , they are all a simular price and all have a simular fair EW chance, so I wouldn’t put any one off doing an EW lucky 15 or whatever.. as none will likely be too far away.
Mitbaahy is drawn in stall 1 here, and frustratingly he may be on the wrong side again, there’s a bit of pace from stalls 3, and 6, and he’s very capable of a late rattle. I was extremely dissapointed in him last time when he couldn’t have been further away from the pace, so if mountain peak or look out louis manage to take him in to the race, then he has claims, as id be adamant that he is up to winning at this level, when he has pace on immediately infront of him.
3.25 ottoman fleet I have always liked him and I thought he was potentially very useful on debut. The winner was highly flattered and had the run of the race, ottoman fleet has shown that to be the case since. He drops in to listed company and id expect him to be very capable of showing up well
3.05 Ayr all the time She’s deffinately progressive and I had strongly considered her when we backed the winner who beat her last time. We had first run, and she’s a smart type, so there is no disgrace in her effort. I think she should go well here.
4.15 Ayr loyal touch comes in here off top weight and although he didn’t beat a great deal last time. I had been happy with his runs prior where I thought that he would be well worth following forward. He drops in to handicap company, he should be very handy, and he’s well capable of staying up there.
3.45 Drunk in love 13/2 0.25pts EW (4p) sky,PP..
4.20 Hasten slowly. 9/2 0.25Pts EW (5P) sky,PP..
Drunk in love is on a fair looking mark after polar bear has gone and franked her form and has risen 4 pounds up to a mark of 81.she drops in to handicap company for the first time and a hood has been applied here. I expect her to be prominent, and to go well here.
Mcaleys tavern has also kept good company and he has dropped 3 pounds down to a mark of 81. Cheek pieces have been attached for the first time, and he should find this effective drop in grade to his liking. He is dropping markedly in trip to 5F having been keen last time over 7F. A 7 pounds claim is taken off here, and he is an interesting proposition, that could be a danger late on.
4.20 Hasten slowly.
She beat a useful type in semblance of order and I feel that her mark of 75 is very fair for handicap company, having been dropped a pound last time for running off 76 in a small field but very competitive handicap. This looks deeper in numbers, but not In quality. The mile should be right up her street.
3.20 Yarmouth. (4p) various..
Sound angela 1pt EW 9/2 sky (5P) Shaara 0.5 pts EW 13/2 sky (5P)
Shaara has improved considerably with each and every run as she has gone out in trip. She is game, should be prominent, and she deserves her chance here at listed level. Sound Angela is likely to be held up and she ran at Group 3 level last time in France. She came in ti the race with a very progressive profile, and she travelled very nicely, however she got an awful run through and was boxed in by Situveux who took the outside position while going nowhere. Sound Angela lost significant momentum and was switched to the middle where she came home very nicely in to 3rd. She should go well here. Ville de grace has strong Group form, and won this race easily last season, if she decides to start, then she would look to be the one to beat on paper, though sound angela and shaara ate not likely finished improving.
4.55 Auteuil Imprenable 6/1 0.25Pts EW various.
Imprenable has always been highly regarded and has kept very solid company, so despite his form figures, he would have amongst the pick of the form over hurdles here on his chase debut. He has always jumped well and safe over the fixed brush hurdles, which should bode well for chasing. He has a decent cruising speed and should be bang up there throughout. Id like to think that he has a very fair chance here. In Love was bought recently from the grand steep sale, and I was absolutely certain that she was a future graded horse for mares only company. So much so, that despite not watching the sale to buy myself, i decided to back my own opinion as far as i could personally go, and i was the under bidder and gutted to see her make just 50k. she ran shortly after the sale, when thrown straight in at Mares only Grade 1 level and finished a solid 5th place. She is the best value for money at any sale, that iv ever seen, so I would rate her a very genuine danger here, in what undoubtedly will be a strong open Novice chase.
2.10 Yarmouth Spartan Arrow 6/1 various 0.25 pts EW.
zoology is one that I have seen entered highly multiple times and he has been pulled twice when about to make his debut. I had been weary of him twice when we was going to back against him, and he is likely to be a useful type who I’d fear again here. Spartan arrow is a half-brother to Twilight Gleaming who was a smart and precocious 2yo. He was purchased at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze Up Sale for 380,000gns and he moved well while running a very solid breeze. The 6F will be no issue here, he was very proffesional and looked and early precocious type, and I liked him. With that said, I’m fairly suprised that he has took so long to come out, and the tongue strap seen on debut may or may not allude to his wind, and that is the reason for the minor stakes. From the same sale lot 227 sold for just £55.000 to a yard that has had no 2 yo winner on turf in 5 years (0-49). Now named abravaggio I quite liked his breeze. He didnt have an outstanding action, and he was green, however His rider looked to have a decent ammount underneath her, and I noticed that he fly lept the post and took a fair bit of pulling up afterwards. I think he’s got a decent engine, and he’s had a fair bit of time, so assuming he is now more professional, then he’d have a squeak here at 40/1 in a tough looking maiden. He was very close to making the cut.
1.50 curragh La Petite Coco 1pt win. 6/4 364/ coral/ betv
I obviously rate her very highly, Sunday looks a day where a lot of favs should win across the cards, and she should go very close. Obviously there will be bigger priced selections across the month.
3.30 Haydock Naval Crown 1 pt EW 4/1 (5p) hills / betfred / sky
He’s obviously very smart, and he has been consistent in his runs. There was absolutely no fluke about his win in the diamond jubilee at a huge price, as he has had 2 very solid runs since. He was beaten fair and square by alcohol free before being comitted a bit too early in France in the Maurice de gheest. He came there to win, and he slightly faded very late on over the extra half a furlong with a little cut in the ground. Back to 6F on a sound surface, his cruising speed his is asset and he should be bang there at the finish. He’s game, so if he’s beaten, it will be very late on. minzaal would be the one to look out for to come from out of the pack late, but i’d be hopeful that Naval crown gets to the front and stays there, so I wouldn’t be scared of too much else.
3.20 salisbury. Juliet sierra 0.25 pts EW 10/1 hills (4p)
Juliet sierra was keen and green on debut but finished a very promising second in a good maiden. She was more professional next time out in winning her maiden, she travelled with ease in midfield, where relaxed with cover, picked up and put the race to bed. The 2nd has get to run since but he was well entered up and looks to be no mug. Tagline is best watched, and I personally think that ivory Madonna needs stepping up in trip now beyond 6F, so Maria branwell looks to be the clear danger. However if Juliet sierra continues her progress here, then she may put it up to the field.
Tuesday 2.35 ripon. Your spirit. 0.25 pts EW 11/2 hills
I am away for a couple of days from monday, so i have worked ahead..
She has kept very decent company and has previously been highly tried over 6F. Her run at Beverly over 5F was solid behind a couple of very useful types. Her last run at pontefract she was made plenty of use of and chased the runaway winner throughout, only losing 2nd very late on. The 2nd has ran a decent 4th off a mark of 70, and now your spirit has been dropped to a mark of 70 herself for her handicap debut. She will meet nothing like what she has taken on to date, she will appreciate the drop in class, and she Should go well here.
2.40 Epsom chartwell house 1 pt win 15/8 b365 13/8 hills…
He broke slowly from a poor draw and stayed on well on his debut against the smart karrar. He backed up that run when narrowly going down to eminency at Windsor, and he was tried highly at goodwood in a race which plenty of winners have subsequently come out of the race.
he again broke a shade slowly, and was left behind a couple of horses who posess a change of gear.
Once they went, he came home well, and he ran satisfactory for a race of that level.
This drop in class looks a decent opportunity. The step up in trip to 7F should leave him plenty of time to get himself in to the right position, and he should come home well, to go very close here.
1.50 Goodwood. Queen olly 0.5pts EW hills unibet betfred…
Fairycross will be pretty tough to beat here, though both Queen olly and ivory Madonna have always looked like they should improve for the step up to 7F they get here. I think that ivory Madonna despite beating Queen olly in the Albany, is still a bit of a work in progress. She will look to be in trouble here a couple of furlongs out, however she’ll stay on, and i wouldn’t dismiss her. Queen olly herself is very professional, she has a solid crusing speed and will travell well. She dosen’t have an instant change of gear, however the manner in which she sticks at the task when opening up off the bridle, leads me to believe that she will come in to her own over this distance. With the improvement that i see, She would look to be capable of being involved here.
4.50 tippperary Library 1 pt win 11/10 various
I wouldn’t be putting many short priced ones up, but I thought library ran an outstanding race last time out in her maiden. I thought that I knew the result a long way out, and that was that our bet remind, and library we’re both going to fall in to a hole and be in real trouble as they had made the awful decision to take eachother on in what looked to be a battle to the end of the first 5F. However library stayed bang up there with a brilliant attitude and was only beaten in the last few yards. That can be marked up significantly, and the decision made was one because she had a huge hard luck story on debut, when the rail was stolen by amusement who runs here. Library was ridden with supreme over confidence last time, I think she is potentially very smart, and I’ll be dissapointed if she dosent win this.
1.43 Ffos lass. mustajaab 0.25pts EW 14/1 b364
There was a pretty strong word for Ancestral land on his debut when he was beaten by a smart one, so i’d have feared him alright. However I though the £45,000 yearling purchase Mustajab made a pleasing introduction at Ascot, he was held right up, and was ridden along out the back early enough, however I liked what he found off the bridle to keep at the task. He will likely get further in time, however ridden a shade more prominently here with that experience under his belt, what he finds, could well see him involved.
2.35 Carlisle. James mchenry 12/1 0.5 pts EW b364
He is a well bred colt who is a half brother to rockbury lad, and a relation to Gutaifan who was very smart at 2. James Mchenry was purchased for £120,000 from the Tattersalls Craven Breeze up sales as lot 56. I liked the way he opened up under hands and heels in his breeze, he has had some time to acclimatise to his new surroundings. I think he is very capable of making an immediate impact on his debut here.
2.50 Deauville. Rosacea 2 pts cover bet 11/10 (3p) b364/hills.. money back if 2nd or 3rd..
We backed her in the French oaks, and she finished a couple of lengths behind nashwa from an awful draw. I thought that the best horse finished 3rd, and despite Nashwa following up since, I still feel that is the case. I think Rosacea is a very smart filly, and if you watched our selection in France last week, then she should run a simular race, to be pulled out wide, and come home very well. She has a decent chance of getting up late to win here. Agave will be prominent, and is dangerous, but I’d be far more worried of sea silk road, who is also set to come late. So it could well be, who gets first run, and the battle of who has the biggest change of gear. I know rosacea has one.
1.40 Newbury rose prick 0.5 pts EW 5/1 sky (4P)
She Is one that we backed previously, and now down in nursery company, I would very much expect her to have found her level. She should be very competitive. I thought she made a very encouraging debut at Salisbury where she missed the break, was held right up and made significant progress late on… At Newmarket, it was a decent race and she was very tenderly handled late on, if they wanted to, she could have been a decent 4th or 5th for sure. Then at Salisbury she was beaten late on by a decent one that has gone on to win a competitive Nursery off a mark of 77.
Rose prick is In here off a mark of 73 and connections avail of a 3 pounds claimer. I feel like the step up to 7F should be little issue, such as the way she stayed on, on her debut. Her next race she was made plenty of use of, and the tender handling late on screamed getting a mark for nursery company. Her run at Salisbury was satisfactory for this level. I’d be hopeful she is held on to for a bit longer here, and that should see her go very well.
1.50 York Mawj 1pt Ew 5/1 365 (4P)
2.25 Redemption time 0.25pts EW 11/1 5 places 364
3.35 Antepost selection La petite coco 1pt EW 7/1 PP (3 P)
Mawj is one that I wanted to put up Ante-post, however I was actually told that she was unlikely to run, so it’s good to see that they have decided to declare her. The fav is a warm order and travels very well, what I would say is that is strongly question what she has beaten. I have no such questions over mawj, I feel that her form is strong, she travels and comes home well and I feel that she could well put it right up to the fav, and lady Hollywood, who also has a decent look to her form, and is open to further improvement.
Redemption time has ran in to smart sorts in his maiden races and despite his form figures not being out of the ordinary, he would look to be a useful type, that is open to further improvement as he matures and gets the 6f trip. He has always shaped to me as though he wants 6F, however his raw nature has yet to allow him to be tried over the trip. He has had a decent break since running down the field in the Norfolk stakes. He was well looked after when their was a wall of 3 horses infront of him. I thought he was staying on nicely, and for me, his finishing position is not to be taken literally. I feel that he can be involved here on his first start over 6F.
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7.00 roscommon. relevant range. 1pt cover bet 3 places 6/4 bet365 (M.B if 2nd or 3rd)
Other bookmakers are yet to price up their on the day cover/ insurebet markets, however I will put up now for my own ease and settle it at even money, as anything above that is fair when widely available. …
He is a useful sort that drops back in to maiden company here having ran some solid races against useful opposition, in better races than this. He finished last of 3 at kilarney behind didtheyhavemuchtodo and mctigue. The winner bolted up and all but won a stakes race next time. The 2nd has always been useful and has ran some very solid races at handicap level, where achieving a genuine and realistic mark of 98. Relevant rage was running over a mile here and he was far disgraced while losing 2nd late on. He backed uo this run again at killarney when finishing 3rd in a rated race behind the useful cowboy justice. The winner is a consistent type and a genuine 93 rated horse. The 2nd is a very consistent 81 rated horse that made us of a 5 pound claimer, and he has backed up that run at Doncaster in a decent looking class 3 handicap. Relevant rage was 3 pounds overweight at killarney and again only folded from 2nd late on over the mile. He drops back to 7F here, he has enough toe, and will get the trip well. I think he has improved while running in behind better rivals, and he should go close to beating the useful moe sedway who has a reasonable favourites chance.
1.33 Deauville Lassaut 1pt cover bet 7/4 (2 places) bet 364
We backed lassaut in the French Derby where he was poorly positioned in a big field, he still stayed on nicely and wasn’t disgraced. His prior run In the French Guineas confirms that he wants this trip of 10F, and despite the fancy form figures of those around him, lassaut is capable of coming with a rattling late run to go very close here.
5.20 leopardstown. Remind 0.25pts EW 13/2 sky / hills/PP
5.50 leopardstown. semblance of order 0.25 pts EW 5/1 b365
Semblance of order lined up in a maiden at fairyhouse where he caught my eye. He ran loose before the start, his stall opened a fraction late, and therefore he had no option but to be settled in the rear. His rider looked liked he had a fair bit underneath him, so much so that he briefly considered making a move going in to the bend, however he rightly settled for an unfortunate position of stone last, with the race all but gone. On the run for home, He went very wide around the field and was given a couple of small slaps a fair way out. He was green and had absolutely zero chance of picking them up, but under hands and heels, he opened up nicely off the bridle to hit the line strongly in a promising never nearer 8th. I think he will have learned a whole lot for the experience, his finishing position can have a line straight through it, and now drawn in stall 4, he has his chance.
Remind is one that I like from her barrier trial, she has plenty of toe and tracked the leaders while very prominent. She took up the lead as she liked, and lengthened away under hands and heels, her time was 1:17:19. She has since ran and finished 3rd in her maiden. She was ridden with confidence and made the running last time to make use of her strong crusing speed. Satin was held right up in her barrier trial, while letting her stablemate get the first run and go for home. She was ridden under hands and heels down the outside to come home pretty nicely in a falsely ran race. She should improve for a stronger test of stamina. Library finished a strong 3rd on debut considering she met with trouble in running. The winner is moving up to stakes company and it looks to be decent form. She will likely be a warm favourite here, and is likely the one to beat.
5.55 Gowran. Chiketto 0.25 Pts EW 6/1 b364
Chikketo ran in a barrier trial on the same card as Remind in what looked to be a stronger race. he wouldn’t have as much pace but he travelled fine in behind, and came home very nicely with something left under hands and heels behind a very impressive winner that has gone on to be 2nd in a strong maiden under rules. I’m near certain that the winner Queen Maidbh will make it up to group class, so on paper it looks good form with more left in the tank. The winner won in 01:19:12 but finished well within herself and was held together. This would make the time comparison pretty useless imo, and chiketto should come home well here, while he should deffinately get further in time. Clounmacon ran a very strong race in a strong enough maiden when going down by just a nose. She’s obviously to be highly respected, as is the 101 rated Victoria Road, who is deffinately a maiden winner in waiting. The above pair look tough to beat, but I feel that they face some genuine opposition here from Chiketto who is far from a forlorn hope.
2.00 Salisbury. Celtic Champion 2 pts cover bet 11/4 b364.. 3 places. (Money back if 2nd or 3rd)
Celtic champion was slowly away on debut and stayed on very nicely to catch the eye in a fair race. He ran in a very decent looking maiden at goodwood, where there was some notable money around for him overnight. He backed up his intial impression while finishing a solid 4th while switching away from the rail side, which was a debatable split second decision that didnt benefit him. The winner had looked smart beforehand, and he backed it up as a strong fav. The 2nd has bitterly dissapointed since however he got a very nice toe in to the race up the rail, and was flattered. I still feel that there is almost certainly significant substance to that goodwood race. Celtic champion hit the line with something left, he is going to come home well here and should deffinately make his presence felt late on. I do like him. Cruise showed plenty of toe on debut when running a solid race. So you could arguably see why they dropped her in trip in a strong goodwood novice race. However I’d argue that what was fairly impressive in her maiden is the way that she stayed back on again after her early toe over 6F, so i’d debate their decision making in dropping her back to a strong 5F novice race, and she could plausibly make a mark here back up to 6F. Heroism is a debutant with a Group 2 mill reef stakes entry, he Cost £100,000 as lot 104 of the Goffs Orby sale and is related to the smart pair of bossy guest and Eastern Impact. Heroism is not to be dismissed here. In summary, the 2 immediately above are now NRs, so I would have fair confidence in celtic champion.
4.00 Dusseldorf Wagnis 13/2 0.5pts EW sky
4.15 Haydock charyn 0.5pts EW bet364 9/2 4/1 various.
We went down by just a nose in the Deutches derby, and i feel that i also have a decent handle on the oaks. Toy will obviously be the best known of these for finishing 2nd in the Irish oaks to the very smart Magical Lagoon. I’d be certian that this is strong form, as i’d be a big fan of the 3rd cairde go deo, and the 4th, I’d give a chance to in a St Ledger. In summary, she has very obvious claims here. Of those behind her in the market, Nachtrose is unexposed and looks potentially smart. She was last seen winning the Italian oaks with ease, coming off the back of a narrow victory over a colt who went on to be a strong 4th in the German derby. In the Derby itself Wagnis went off a well fancied 2nd favourite with an awful wide draw and received no luck at all in running. The rail was occupied by a horse that was going no where and her finishing position can be marked up dramatically. My honest opinion is that she would have been no worse than 4th, with a clear run through, as she has quite the change of gear. Her prior form is solid, having beaten subsequent listed and group 3 winners. Her stablemate Mountaha received what I would consider to be a poor frankie detorri ride last time out when beaten by well disposed. She was left too much to do under hands and heels, and under the capable hands of Andrash Starke, she should be able to reverse that form here late on, which will see her bang in the mix. Wagnis has been extremely unlucky with the draw again and this time breaks from 13, a definite disadvantage at Dusseldorf, as drawn on the outside is usually the kiss of death. It may be this time, what I would say is that those drawn widest of all in previous years, wouldnt posess the change of gear that wagnis has. Toy and Mountaha are fine in stalls seven and eight respectively, and likewise Nachtrose drawn in three. It is absolutely no easy ask, but At the current prices I am willing to take a chance on WAGNIS, with her draw now factored In to her price. Expect to see her come late, from a worrying position in running.
Charyn is a nice 2YO for Roger varian and he makes his debut here at Haydock in a race which there are a few debutants all of which are highly entered up. Charyn is a full brother to the smart wings of war, is well regarded, and would look to be very capable of making an impact in maiden company. Road to East has Gimcrack and Mill Reef entries, Yorkshire has a Group 2 mill reef entry, while kitai who cost £150,000 as lot 378, is related to the smart woody creek and is entered up in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes. I wouldn’t be scared of much else in the field here.
3.40 Newmarket Lakota Sioux 1.5 pts EW 4/1 hills
Lakota sioux is a nice filly that I have been patiently waiting to back for this.
She has always been highly regarded, and i was going to put her on debut before only 7 were declared, so it was no suprise to see that she went very well going down narrowly while attempting to make all in her maiden.
She stuck at the task very well, and duly came foward to bolt up next time. While there wasn’t any great strength or depth, she saw out her race very well, and in contrast to her flashing tail, she has a very likeable attitude in a finish.
She was highly tried in the chesham, where once again she flashed her tail throughout, but came home very well with a willing attitude.
Her tail will be all over the place here, and anyone watching back vids of her certainly may be put off by this, and I have very much expected her to drift for this reason alone. However, again I really like her attitude in a finish, she seems very genuine and game to me, and I’d ignore that entirely, while expecting her to run all the way to the line.
She’s riddled with talent, and I think she should go very well in a race where mark Johnston had an exceptional record of 2 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd, from his 4 runners in previous renewals of this race. Lakota sioux, despite her flashing tail, looks to have a very solid chance here in what wouldn’t look to be a ridiculously strong Group 3. I haven’t seen a better opportunity all week, so win or lose it has always been the plan to hold back, and go with decent stakes here.
I won’t go as far as saying she should win, but I’ll genuinely be very dissapointed if she doesn’t go close.
Kempton 6.50 Morcar 0.5 pts EW 20/1 PP, sky, hills…12/1 b364
Animate didn’t break particularly well from the stalls and ran a very eye catching debut in a very strong maiden. He travelled very well, amongst some very useful horses and came home nicely. He has a good bit about him, and the form has worked out particularly well with those in and around him. He should be very capable of making his mark here. Morcar has been kept back for the 7F + maidens, i know him pretty well, and he is a useful colt by saxon warrior who originally cost £82,000 as lot 707 of the October yearling sales. He was sold on privately to Johnny de la hey who is well known over jumps for owning the likes of Cyrname and Pic D’Orhy, and although Morcar is likely to improve with racing as he fills out in to his sizeable frame, he is a well regarded individual, and he could be capable of making an immediate impact here, even though it looks to be a strong maiden and a big ask to win.
New endeavour would look to be a useful type in opposition. Silver knott made a very pleasing introduction while tenderly handled late on in a strong maiden, he has had notable Group 1 entries, his form has just been franked by lord bertie, and he would look the one to beat. Pavise is a very well bred relation to the very smart Sacred bridge.
I did also have Animate written out as a bet, but he was backed from 7/1 as I was notifying.
Galway 2.30 la prima Donna 1.5pts EW 4/1 sky
We have had a couple of dissapointing runs with wanees who got lit up early, and mitbaahy who didn’t break ideally and chose to track horses that weren’t going to bring him In to the race. My staking hasn’t been great this month, and I feel we should be a fair bit more ahead than we are for the month we’ve had. So it’s not ideal to be potentially going from a very useful monthly points position to just a satisfactory one, should we miss atleast the places here with la prima Donna. However, overall I am very much on target to what i have set out to get to by the start of the NH season so i will stick to the plan with her as per the punchestown review.
“La prima Donna was up 4 pounds, and appreciated the longer trip here . She has been crying out for extra distance both in France prior and here. If there was cut in the ground, I would be very confident in her in 2m5+ handicap hurdles or chases. I like her a whole lot, and I’d give her a very big chance in a pertemps final. Willie dosen’t usually target that race, but wherever she goes in handicap company with some cut over 2m5+, i will be on, and she will not be far away.”
I have waited to make sure she has got every bit of the rain, i wanted to see. I genuinely think she had been laid out for this, and has a huge chance here.
Friday 3.35 Goodwood mitbaahy 0.75pts EW 4/1 sky/ b365/ betfred (4 P)
Mitbaahy is one which I have taken serious note of throughout the season, he has a real change of gear and he easily accounted for caturra previously. He stepped up to group 3 level in the Coral charge and he was positioned on the inside rail which left the rider with no option but to sit and wait while raasel hit top gear down the outside. Once in the clear mitbaahy came home well, and I’d be of the opinion that he can reverse that form, therefore he deserves his spot here to take a chance at group 2 level. It’s a big ask, however I have had this race in mind for some time, and I think he is capable of making the grade.
Thurs 5.20 Goodwood. Miss Dynamic 0.25 Pts EW 17/2 sky (5 places)
Mark Johnston has already made his mark with a Cracksman filly, when the smart Dance In The Grass won the Star Stakes at Sandown. Miss dynamic was purchased for £78,000 as lot 1310 of the tattersalls yearling sales, she’s by cracksman out of Dynaforce who has had 4 winner from 7 foals of racing age, including the smart Aljazeera who finished 2nd in a group 2 before winning at listed level.
Miss Dynamic herself looks a nice filly physically, she has been saved to start at this meeting, and notably has William buick on board in a race which her trainer has a decent record in. she may be able to make her presence felt here on debut.
Thursday. Goodwood 1.50 Wanees 0.5Pts EW 9/1 sky (5P) 10/1 PP
I wouldn’t be much of a fan of big field flat handicaps, however i reasonably fancied him for the Britannia as he’s a nice genuine type that can be played late and does enough in the finish. Imo He ran a stormer at Ascot in a very competitive race, and shaped as though he is ready for this step up in trip to 10F. He is up 2 pounds to a mark of 93, and I do not think we have found the limit to him yet. I think the top weight is over rated, but apart from that, it’s a very competitive race, where all have a chance. Over this longer trip, I expect to see improvement from wannees and I expect him to catch the eye with a late run where he finds off the bridle. It wouldn’t particularly suprise me if it led to a win. Jimmy hendrix has franked the form, and Wanees shouldn’t be too far away from doing so himself.
Tuesday 2.25 Goodwood Mysterious Night 4/1 0.5 pts EW. Hills/coral/betv
He has always shaped like he would show improvement to me over 7F. It was very evident that he was smart on debut, as i had recieved a strong word about marbaan at the start of the season, and he beat him fair and square. Marbaan has come out and won twice easily, where as mysterious night stepped up in competition last time against Persian force. That was an almighty ask, he ran as expected and was tenderly handled in the closing stages. I’d say his form is very likely to be stronger than the chesham winners and that mysterious night is the one to beat here over 7F with improvement expected. Marbaan himself is very useful, and he shouldn’t be far away himself.
Ascot 2.25 Jumbly 4/1 1 pt EW hills….
Jumbly last ran in the German 1000 Guineas where she was held right up and travelling well. She was set to make a move when a gap closed up quickly immediately in front of her. She had to switch wide, it was all too late, and she came home pretty well. I wasnt particular happy with the ride here, as I have always thought that her cruising speed is her asset, rather than a rapid change of gear. Ridden more prominently here, I could see her absolutely bang there in the final furlong, odds on in running, and ultimately what she finds will be the difference between winning and losing. This is a drop in grade from the 2 versions of the 1000 Guineas and her performances were of a good standard, therefore down i grade, she has a fair chance over the mile. Oscula has ran some fine races in defeat this season, as well as getting off the mark in listed company. She was held last time at listed level, however she stayed on well and the winner is a useful type. Although this is a step up in grade in name, it’s a poor group 3, and her listed form as well as her attitude, would give her a genuine chance here, and I twouldnt be a shock to see her get back up late to win at the line. Novemba will make the pace, she has ran at a much higher level than anything in this field, she is capable of making all and holding on, though it has been a long time between wins and she hasn’t had a great attitude when being loaded in to the stalls. The likes of oscula who recieve 8 pounds, is game in a finish, I’m not sure if novemba would fight back if headed. The fav is going to be held up, her form isn’t out of the ordinary, and it’s plausible that she may come home just too late here. I personally think that she may want 10F in this company, if she managed to win this and goes up in grade again, then she deffinately will want further. +4.8
Tomorrow. 2.25 Sandown Tagline 0.25pts EW 5/1 sky…
Fairy cross was somewhat disappointing on her debut In a race won by the very smart mawj. She broke well next time out and won with authority, while tenderly handled in the closing stages. The Form has a bit of a reasonable look to it, as the 2nd has gone and beat a horse called american belle, who I thought made a very pleasing introduction at Doncaster, and would have taken a little bit of beating in a normal maiden. One with a strong look to her form is tagline, I get the impression that she is capable of showing improvement for this step up in trip to 7F, as she has finished her races in good fashion against strong opposition over 6F. If Fairy cross hasn’t improved off the back of her victory, then she may be ablee to get to her late on. Jamie Spencer is booked and you can visualise the hold up ride for her to be played late. Fairy cross will get a good tow in to the race off dance in the grass, therefore get the first run on tagline, and it will be interesting to see if she has enough under the bonnet to stay infront, as there was something left last time. Bet me was visually very impressive over 6F and the further she went, the further she’d have won by, however there was very little substance to that form, with that said I wouldn’t rule her out. Lady alara is worth watching as I thought she should have been beaten by a potentially smart type called clochette. The latter is entered on Friday in a fairly normal maiden, so if Lady alara is not disgraced here, that’s worth noting. The aforementioned dance in the grass was a very big price on debut, If you wanted to play devil’s advocate you could say they gave her an easy lead and allowed her to have her own way in front. Those in behind probably thought they had her covered and she would come back to them, however she kept on very well infront of some useful colts. The 2nd has won since, the 3rd was deemed good enough to run in the Group 2 superlative stakes, and the 4th is a useful type. Therefore she’s not to be underestimated here. -0.5
Today 6.38 Sandown. Annie Mayer 0.25 pts EW 9/2 bet365 / hills/ coral
She is now a backable price, cost plenty at the Breeze-Ups and I liked the look of her. On debut she ran in to the useful omniqueen and shaped pretty well. I think she will have learned from that experience, there is more to come, and I would expect her to go close here. =
just to note I have completed the punchestown review in 5 individual threads of the race days.
6.30 Naas Pirate jenny 0.25 PTS EW 15/2 (4P) b364
Pirate jenny stayed on very well off the bridle over 5F at Cork and looked to be crying out for extra distance. She ran next time out at the curragh over 6F in a reasonably strong looking listed race, where she finished behind both beautiful sunshine and Prettiest, however what I would say is that the above pair were ridden for their life all the way to the line, where as pirate jenny was tenderly handled in the final furlong off the pace. There was a strong gallop here from start to finish, they were all spread out and when the winner made her move she directly came infront of pirate jenny who then had no gap between herself and majestic colt. She was absolutely never going to win, however her rider seemed to immediately accept that she was unlikely to place, and didn’t bother riding her home. Her previous races would suggest that she would have found something if asked, she would look value for her finishing position there, and that sees her as an ew price, with a decent EW chance. +2.25
8.25 vichy. Folamour 0.5pts win 3/1 b364
I have had to go very wide, due to the heat and entries over here tomorrow. This is a half decent listed event in France at Vichy where Folamour who hasnt been out of the front 2 since the beginning of the year, holds a leading chance. He has twice ran in to the smart Irésine in Lyon, however fortunately they won’t be meeting again here and the form is of a solid level. Imo Folamour has a very decent chance of returning to success and going 1 better than last year in this race.
Lord achilles who also has solid enough form, having finished 4th in the “Bedel” behind Opasan, also has a claim to put forward as a somewhat lively outsider. Although he will be amongst the first off the bridle and held right up, he will almost certainly keep finding and i have been impressed with his attude, so there’s a very small but genuine live chance of him getting up to win very late. Narcos likes to be prominent, he would be somehat dangerous if aloud to take up a soft lead going for home, as he’s not a particularly weak finisher . Despite finishing 5th in this last season, I do prefer the shape of this race for him, as he is plausibly going to be bang there going into the final furlong, which sees him hold reasonable EW claims. Making Miracles had been long absent but has some very solid form in saudi arabia, including a 4th placed finish in the Group 1 saudi cup. He made an encouraging introduction on french soil, and although he would have something to find with the likes of Folamour on his last run, he was well fancied in the market, and may be capable of building upon that.
Opasan represents Slovakia and had finished infront of the aforementioned pair of Narcos and Lord achilles, before following up at bratislava. He won this race last year and On paper He looks to be in fine form, and the one to beat. however he has on occasion taken a while to get going in better contests at Longchamp, so id be hoping that Folamour may get the first run to close down the likes of Narcos, and can hopefully hold off the very useful oposan, and the progressive stayer Lord achilles.
2.45 curragh Kerkiyra 0.25 Pts EW 7/1 sky (4P) 10/1 PP (3p)
Although she is yet to win, She has kept strong maiden company. To me she has always shaped though she will improve for the step up in trip as she is a real galloper. Off a mark of 86 dropped down to handicap company, I would expect her to be competitive here. I personally feel that should her last run have been over an extra 2F, then she would have been likely to have got up against the very useful Galleria Borhgese. The latter has gone on to win at listed level, whilst she is declared for a group 2 on this same card. Imo it was a very solid seasonal reappearance from kerkiyra. Amortentia won very cosily on his handicap debut and has since risen 7 pounds. He also gives me the impression that he is going to improve for the step up in trip to 10F here. He should come late to be well involved with 7 pounds claimed off him. He would look the one to beat, though id expect kerkiyra to be infront of him approaching the final furlong, and she’s game.
1.15 Newbury Hectic 0.25 pts EW 10/1 (365)
1.59 Chester Qaiser. 0.25 pts EW 25/1 bet365.
I did have 3 bets written out, however unfortunately there were only 6 declared for Lord uhtreds race, which is the one I had been waiting for all week. he unfortunately opened up at 2/1. If i saw the later 11/4, I would have put him up, so i’ll keep an eye on him in the morning.
Hectic is a precocious type that goes well, and he was set to run in a class 5 at Windsor before being pulled. One thing i dont personally like in a visual manner, is his low head carriage. However it wouldnt effect him in any way physically and It bears no relation ability wise. Hectic should be easy to spot, though it’s nothing to worry about through the race. He would look to have enough ability to be showing up well.
Qaiser Cost £42,000 at the sales, his Sire was unbeaten in three runs on Dirt. While he’s the 1st foal of stakes winner Glamanation. I’m going to have to take a small chance on him here, at what I assume will be a wild price, due the notable entries he has had, and his yard having a couple of decent 2yo winners very recently. I’m very aware that his trainer is an optimist of the highest order, however his current Nunthorpe entry would look absolutely crazy for an unraced 2yo, unless he goes particularly well here.
2.25 Haydock. Al Najada 4/1 0.5 Pts EW 364
Al najada cost £80,000 at the sales as lot 414 and is related to sound and silence who was a smart 2yo for Godolphin. he is well entered up in the Gimcrack, while I have been tracking k burkes other entries in that race who have ran, and 2 so far have both come out and won their maiden. he should be competitive here. .-1
4.40 York caturra 0.5 pts EW 6/1 hills (4P)
he ran a solid 2nd in a group 3 in France on his seasonal reappearance, before catching the eye in the sandy lane stakes. He travelled as good as anything in the race where the winner elcabello took first run, and he was closed out late on by the very smart Flaming rib. he finished 5th there but could be marked up considerably for being tenderly handled in the closing stages when he diddnt get a clear passage to the line. He backed up his run there, dropped back to 5F in a Listed race at Sandown, where he finished a solid 3rd. There were no excuses there, the winner won well and has since gone very close at Group 3 level, beaten by a progressive horse that had won its prior start in a Listed race. While the 2md at Sandown is a solid 99 horse that was recieving 5 pounds from caturra and was aloud to dictate where he is very dangerous. There’s a decent look to that form under a penalty, and carrying 8st 10 in here, I’d expect caturra to be very competitive.
Newmarket 1.20 Rose prick 11/1 0.25 pts EW bet365
Rose prick I thought made a very encouraging debut at Salisbury where she missed rhe break, was held right up and made significant progress late on, I thought she shaped like the best horse in the race despite minnetonka hosing up at face value when having the run of the race. I’d expect rose prick to come forward from that experience, and although she may be want further in the near future. I thought it was a very good run, and I will give her a chance here I what looks a very strong maiden. Ivory Madonna o viously sets the standard, while Canadian show was a very expensive and well bred yearling. Good magic has made a good start with his 2yo’s in the USA, and i have liked the runs of Perform and curly Jack, so Miss Newyork in here, who is by GM out of Grade 2 winner Luna vega, breezed well at the Arqana sales as lot 18F and looks one not to be entirely discounted. -0.5
5.55 Fairyhouse. Blindsided 0.5 pts EW 9/2 PP..
I wanted an easier maiden than this, though I have liked the 2 runs of blindsided and he had been crying out for the 6F on debut. Pauliac will be very interesting in a Nursery after this run, and I thought he was going to be a much bigger opening proce here, though there is a small chance that rhe improvement shown here for the step up in trip, will see him in the mix. borletti has earned a rating of 101, and both blind sided and blanc de noir had been well entered up in the railway stakes before they finished infront of Pauliac previously. The latter started slowly and came together with one of Jim bolgers, he has blinkers now applied, but nothing finished that race better than Blindsided. He backed up his run with a reasonable 2nd next time out, where i though he was made a shade too mich use of, and set the race up for the winner. I’d like to see him come late, and Any further improvement should see him well in to the mix here. -1
Hamburg 2.45 So Moonstruck 0.5 pts EW 5/1 sky (5 places) hills 4P…
So moonstruck ran in the barbarian classic on his 2nd start off the back of winning his maiden, and ran a solid 4th while he shaped as if a step up in trip would see him in a better light. He stepped up in trip at Cologne in a Group 2 and ran extremely well. He was a little bit early in front and was beaten by a head. He’s improving with each start, while The Form has a strong look to it, with the 4th maraseem being a useful type. /
He will have learned alot from this at cologne and there has been a total number of 11 German Derby winners of this race who ran at Cologne last time out. He has gone from being 1 1/4 L behind the very useful sammarco to going down by just a head. He is improving with each start and I feel with a little more patience, this may be the day he beats him, and therefore that should see him going close here in the German Derby.
4.25 Haydock. Tacarib Bay 7/1 0.5 Pts EW 4 places (365)
His last 2 form figures wouldn’t be appealing at face value, however they were in very strong races which he had no right to be placed in. His runs prior in the European duty free handicap as well as the Horris hill stakes read well enough for a mark of 103 dropping in ti handicap company with a 3yo allowance. He has plenty of toe and clipped heels on his last start in the Jersey stakes by going in to the back of Dubawi Legend while seeking a slightly more prominet position. That lit him up a bit early and saw him on the back front where there was a wall of better horses infront of him. He still came home well enough and wasn’t disgraced. This is a huge drop in grade, he should be able to travel well in to the race, and be seen in a better light here. +4.2
2.55 Sandown Omniking 0.25 pts EW 7/1 365…
This looks to be a strong Novice, I could mention the whole field pretty positively here, and this lad is one I wanted to see in an easier race. Hes well bred, His dam is a half sister to the champion Pride, who in turn bred the dual group 2 winner One Foot In Heaven. He was sold as a yearling from Book One of Tattersalls and he has since been breezed as lot 145 where he caught the eye due to him reponding when being asked. He picked up and ran through the line giving the impression that he looks more of a seven-furlong or a mile horse. I wouldn’t be worried about him not looking too rapid in his breeze, as he should find off the bridle late on, it was very much the visual impression of him picking up that interested me, rather than being a particularly quick time over a short distance. This looks a strong Novice here, so its no easy ask, however i feel its appropriate that they have waited for a 7F race. His willing attitude in his breeze, may plausibly see him able to respond off the bridle, and get himself involved here late on, and i am willing to give him his chance. -0.5
Yarmouth 2.50 Lord uhtred 0.75pts EW 11/4 sky/ PP/ hills/ coral/ betfred….
He was purchased from the Arqana may breeze up sales as lot 124 where he caught my eye, he was professional and ran a strong bullet breeze down the rail under hands and heels. By Siyouni out of Faay, He’s well bred out of a full sister to Nunthorpe winner Mecca’s Angel and group winner Markaz, their purchase last year at the Breeze ups was the very useful eldar eldarov, and from what I saw at Deauville from Lord Uhtred, I’d expect the to have another useful one on their hands that would look capable of making an immediate impact here. I don’t think this is a particularly strong maiden, and Charlie appleby hasn’t entered up the fav in the likes of the National Stakes, so i’d be hopeful enough that he’s not an absolute superstar like we ran in to with Walbank. -0.34
1.25 Auteuil. Vae Patron 0.5pts EW 4/1 365/ PP
Vae Patron has been held up the last twice and has ran solid races. In the GRANDE COURSE DE HAIES for 4 yo’s at Cagnes, he was very patiently ridden to come in to the prize money against the very useful Norville giving away weight at the end of a long season and I’d be certain that Norville represents strong form. Vae Patron has prior wins at compiegne and at Cagnes where he was more prominently ridden, and has kept good company throughout. His comeback run over fences was very convincing, he stayed all the way to the line in a class 2 against a progressive Francois Nicolle inmate who had gone very close at Auteuil on his prior start. Vae Patron is tactically versatile, is fairly weighted for his achievements, and should come home well here. He’s tough and he won’t be out of a winning chance until the line. -1
3.45 curragh. La petite coco 1 pt EW 11/2 sky / 5/1 hills (4 P)
She is making her seasonal reappearance here over 10F in a very strong renewal which isnt ideal at all, and she’s going to improve off the back of this when she goes back up to a mile and a half. However she finds off the bridle and may be able to get up late here as she did over 10F against Love. I always rated her as the best 3yo filly In the land last season, and a cut above snowfall, even when snowfall was racking up wins by a distance against poor opposition and was regarded by many as the arc winner in waiting…. La petite coco unfortunately missed the fillies and mares on brittish champions day due to a set back, and hopefully she can pick up where she left off with more to come. She’s 40/1 For the Prix de le Arc de triomphe, she gets that trip very well, and if she comes with a winning challenge in this over 10F on her seasonal debut, which is a very tough ask. Then you’d want to be taking that straight away, as rightly or wrongly thats how highly i rate her.
2.05 Newmarket Malrescia 9/2 0.5 pts EW coral (4P) (3P various)
She was a solid runner up to the very smart dramatised on debut before racing up 2 visually impressive wins. The opposition wasn’t outstanding however she has a strong crusing speed and put the races to bed very quickly and professionally. She has plenty of toe, she was kept up to work last time over this trip of 6F, and she will be bang there 1F out, where I expect her to make a potential winning move. -0.05
1.35 Newcastle corporate raider. 0.25 pts EW 11/2 bet364
He caught the eye on debut over 5F, he was outpaced then came home very well under hands and heels. Last time he ran in a very strong race and wasn’t positioned the greatest out the back electing to track whistle and flute I’m to the race, however he wasn’t going anywhere. He switvhed to the rail, and wouldn’t have been placed by any means, however I belive that you could mark up his form alongside the 5th placed honour your dreams who got a clear run at it, and those infront ate very useful indeed. This 6F trip should seek out further improvement and he’s an EW contender here. -0.5
3.55 Carlisle Wednesday. Clitheroe 17/2 0.5 pts EW hills
Clitheroe was one I liked for the Sandringham along with her stablemate who won the race. She went for the rail around 2f out and that gap closed immediately to put her I’m all sorts of trouble. She regrouped and came home well in to 3rd. Imo she was strong value for her placing here and now recieveing 3 pounds from the winner there, we will see if I have the correct impression that she should have won.
Oscula is the one to beat, however clotheroe should be strongly in the mix here. -1
3.00 chantilly Rosacea 0.25pts EW 10/1 sky (5 places)
Rosacea came from the back to win the PRIX PHAREL, PRIX DES RESERVOIRS and the PRIX DE LA GROTTE where she quickens up and finds a significant ammount off the bridle. She ran in the French Guineas and imo ran a stormer in a very unfortunate 4th place. She made a move down the rail to attempt a willing challenge, howevwr Time square infront of her moved to her left leaving no room at all. I know How well she finishes her races, from her prior performances, and I believe that she may well have got up should the passage have been clear. She has hit the line hard on every start and she gives the impression that this step up in trip to 10F is within her range. A low draw is very preferable and the likes of agave, Nashwa and zellie are all well positioned, while unfortunately rosacea is drawn 17 here. Stakes will be kept small as this is far from ideal, however you have around 40 seconds down the straight (at avg running speed) to the bend, to get a slot a bit closer to midfield on the outside with some cover. While its very preferencial to be handy on the inside, There is a long run in of 450 meters off the final bend to give those who are wide like rosacea will very likely be, a reasonably fair shot at it, Should you quicken up in the manner that I feel rosacea is capable of. + 0.25
- Bring On The Night A. Stakes 6/1 0.5 Pts EW +0.1pts
- Foxes Tales Wolferton 11/1 0.5 pts EW -1pt
- Hafit Queens vase 13/2 0.5 Pts EW +0.15
- Mother Earth Duke of Camb 5/1 0.5 Pts EW -1pt
- Magical Lagoon Ribblesdale 14/1 0.5 pts EW +8.4
- Kyprios Ascot Gold Cup 12/1 0.5 pts EW +7.2
- The Foxes Chesham 20/1 0.25 Pts EW -0.5
- Star Girls Aalmal Jersey stakes 8/1 0.25 Pts EW +0.15
- Home Affairs Platium jubilee 8/1 0.5 pts EW -1
- Campanelle Platium Jubilee 10/1 0.5 pts EW +0.5
AIKHAL is a NR to a Total of -1 pt. -1
7.10 Cork Thunderkiss 2pts cover bet 5/4 bet365 (3places) Thunderkiss won this race last year and is a quality operator. She has been extremely consistent and I’d be very hopeful that she can place at the highest level before the end of the season. So at group 3 level here, over her correct trip, which she stays every yard of with a willing attitude, then she should be extremely competitive and take the beating here. -2
Sun. 3.00 chantilly. Lassaut 0.5pts EW 12/1 hills 4 places.
Lassaut finished 5th behind modern games and a few others here in the poulains however he broke poorly, found himself in a very poor position, and he subsequently received quite a sympathetic ride under hands and heels yet still stayed on stoutly to be in the mix for minor honours. He has experience of the track, and I like the way that he has finished his races, he gives me the absolute impression the there is more left at the line He steps up in distance by another 100 meters here, and I think he’s going to keep finding off a held uo ride. I feel he has every chance of being strongly involved here, while potentially causing a shock. -1
4.30 Epsom. Stone Age 0.5pts EW 9/2 sky 6p (various 4p)
Stone age was impressive last time, and the horse in behind french acclaim is a useful type who may be an outside player for the St ledger later in the season. Stone age was allowed to dictate which would lead me to be slightly dubious of his authority in victory. However he is uncomplicated, and gave me the impression that he’d have won wherever he was ridden. He has a strong cruising speed, is tactically versatile and stuck at the task well. I feel he’ll be able to travel well within himself here, and give himself the chance to take it up, lengthen and potentially get first run on the field, where as others in here I can see a hard luck story where they’re off the pace and waiting for a gap. If changingoftheguard takes up the running, i see no issue with stone age getting to him. I don’t see any way that Stone age gets himself in trouble, he will get the trip, and he holds every chance here. -0.05
4.30 Epsom Tuesday 0.5pts EW 9/1 b365 (4 places)
Tuesday imo has done nothing wrong to date, she ran well in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas amd again ran very well imo, I’m a pretty strong renewal of the Irish 1000 Guineas. She was ridden with confidence there, was made good use of, and she was beaten by a very smart one. Imo of she was held on to, her superiority over the likes of the closing concert hall, would have exceeded the finishing distances. Id be pretty confident that the company she has kept, has been superior to alot of the trial winner who’s victories have lacked strength and depth. Over this trip, the yard have thoughts of June to go forward. I feel that Tuesday will likely be far more conservatively ridden and allowed to come in the race late here with the step up in distance and the quiet ride, set to see her in the mix at the finish here. +5.4
6.55 kempton, Baltimore Boy 0.25pts EW 40/1 PP (4 places).
Baltimore boy is related to the useful doublet, and was a highly regarded 2yo which I was waiting for last season. He unfortunately had a few setbacks and subsequently wasn’t seen, though he makes his debut here at 3 and has an absolutely ridiculous ask. On paper he should have no chance, and perhaps he dosen’t, as i have waited to see if any money came for him, which hasn’t. However on my notes from last season, I will still give him his chance here at a huge price. Perhaps a place would be a big shock as this is a strong novice race where Audience comes in with a rating of 103, that’s backed up further by the very useful monaddah, puffing and Mount athos. So if nothing else, Baltimore Boy shouldnt be disgraced here, and is one who may be worth following forward. +1.75
2.10 Newbury chindwin 0.25 pts EW 10/1 pp/Hills/sky
He is an early Derby entrant that represents connections of the formerly smart salouen who went down by just a nose on his debut in a maiden. Chindwin commanded £78,000 as a foal, £205,000 as a yearling and is by Saxon warrior out of a mare that has produced the useful Highland rocker. Chindwins Derby entry alludes to him being a middle distance horse of the future, however he may well be capable of showing up well over just short of 7F on his 2yo debut. Bresson is supremely well bred and rates the one to beat, though on paper, this dosnet look to be a ridiculously strong maiden. So I’d be willing to take a small chance here on chindwin.
1.00 Newbury rich. 7/1 0.5 pts EW b365
There is a really smart filly yet to come for hannon that im very keenly awaiting the entries of, however rich is an above average filly in her own right despite her costing just £26,000 at the sales. She will get further in time, however despite being by cracksman she is precocious enough to do herself justice on her debut in a big field 2yo race. She would have to go well here if she has any chance at all of running in the Chesham which she qualifies for by being sired by a winner over 1 mile 2 furlongs+
4.20 Auteuil Ma beaute. 1.5pts win 7/4 bet365 (13/8 coral)
flash Davier progressed last year, and the daughter of Doctor Dino concluded her 3-year-old year with a success on the brooms of Compiègne before being put aside during the winter. She behaved well during her two comeback races in heavy handicaps giving away weight and will not be upset to return to the hurdles at Auteuil, However she just dosent have the crusing speed of Ma Beaute. Back over hurdles from fences, This race looks set up for Ma Beaute to dictate, she should make all or very near all, with the likes of Flash davier getting there all too late, after Ma Beaute hopefully will already be home and hosed.
6.10 Lingfield. The Xo 0.25 pts EW 9/2 bet365
He Cost £110,000 as lot 170 at the craven breeze up sale, looked a nice type and ran a decent time while being very professional. He would look well ready to run in this maiden and his breeze would suggest that he should be capable in this company as a debutant, I liked him.
He was consigned by a good farm in Mayfield stables who have previously consigned the likes of hot streak, legends of War, King carney, and rich legacy. The smaller yard of John Ryan only has a 5.5% strike rate with 2yo’s in the past 2 seasons (2 from 37) However they are often highly placed. This race looks reasonable, William buick is jocked up, and the Xo may well be a useful type for the owners of last seasons decent 2yo breeze up purchase, Manaccan. Malrescia ran in to a very smart type on debut in dramatised, before bolting up in lesser company, she would look the one to beat.
3.00 Auteuil Sel Jem 5/1 0.5 Pts EW hills (4 places)
Sel Jem was beaten last time by stablemate feu Follett and they are on the same terms here however he was held up to close late on And there was no urgency to pick up his stablemate who he closed upon all the way to the line. I would have absolutely no doubt that he is the better horse, and the longer trip here should show that. The sheer variety of obstacles including a big water fence, bullfinches, and two large fences down the back, would see me respecting the home challenge here against some very smart mullins raiders, and I think there is more to come of sel jem at with his 5yo allowance. His form in the Prix Maurice Gillois, his wins in the murat chase, as well as his aforementioned 2nd in the ingre chase were all at auteuil, all read well, and all show potential improvement for the step up in trip here. +3
Sel jem bolted up here in the French Gold Cup, and he’d be a very short price fav for next years renewal already, being just a 5yo. He’s obviously very smart, and has improved when he has been asked more of, as i thought he would prior to the race.
Hermes baie 9/2 coral / Lads 0.5 pts EW Theleme 13/2 sky bet V 0.25 pts EW 13/2
I have always been wary of L’autonomie at 3 miles plus, and the pair of Theleme and Hermes Baie are smart youngsters unexposed at the trip without too much between them. Klassical dream we obviously know all about, and I don’t trust him in a finish, so I will take a very small chance on the young french pair, to potentially cause a minor shock here.
Hermes baie won well and both ran absolutely stormers, Theleme was extremely unfortunate to be just ran out of the places very late on imo. He certainly deserved a place. Going forwards they’ve both ran extremely well in the French champion hurdle and looked to potentially be the 1-2 turning in, so you’d be very unlikely to get a decent price again. +2.2
Awesome Spirit 11/1 0.25 pts EW
Blanc de noir 14/1 0.25 pts EW bet 365
Blanc de noir has an entry in the railway stakes and is owned by the same connections as Wesley wards campanelle. Awesome spirit also has an entry in the railway stakes and the yards other raced entries in crispy cat and Harry time have gone very well, while his other stablemate in this entries yet to run, I know is smart from the Breeze ups. Aiden runs a coventry horse in this every year, so the fav will be very useful indeed, more was expected from the well regarded woodcock flight on debut, while the 40/1 shot pauliac looks a nice type and could be a danger.
I thought Banc de noir ran a race full of promise, travels very well and would look very capable in a normal maiden. Awesome spirit should come on for the run and the experience, and may be seen in a better light up in trip later. I’d say both are decent, and this race was a maiden out of the ordinary. -1
1.00 Goodwood indian renegade 0.5pts EW 12/1 (bet365)
Indian renegade was one of the cheapest purchases in this field at £70,000, though he is one that has been pre trained by Breeze up consignor Robson Aguiar and I’m lead to believe that he could be pretty useful. I have been patiently waiting on him running in his maiden since the start of the season and he was originally declared to take on his very smart stablemate Persian force.
They ultimately decided against him running at Newbury and have subsequently chosen a deep maiden here at Goodwood to find out what they have. Charlie appleby had 3 in the intial entries and the other 2 have just ran pretty well, so mischief magic would look to be the chief threat of the debutants, while I am hopeful that Indian renegade can make his presence felt here. He absolutely bombed here and I have no excuses what so ever. It will be interesting to see what he does next time out, and he may be of interest in Nursery company later in the season. The winner was easy to spot as he had been behind the very smart walbank… -1
Friday. 5.25 curragh Boundless ocean 9/2 0.25 pts EW hills.
2.45 goodwood the attorney 9/2 0.25 pts EW hills
Boundless ocean has some solid form, he has ran in to anchorage prior, however I feel he was unfortunate in running with a gap closing on him during the final furlong of the eyreford stakes, so he can potentially reverse that form here.
The attorney faces Montassib who overcame a 598 day absence to win at wetherby, and at face value he did it extremely well, however I’d be of the opinion that he beat absolute trees there, and we will find out here what sort of ability he has off an opening mark of 87. The attorney keeps his mark of 92 for running jumbly close in his prior race, while beforehand he also ran in to another smart one (run to freedom). I would be hopeful that he can do himself justice here on his seasonal debut.
boundless ocean was very unfortunate in running and could easily have won this , he is deffintely the one to take out of the race. The attorney was poor, its likely lack of race fitness, but still there would be zero interest going forward. -1
Wolverhampton 2.50 Fine balance 5/1 0.25 pts EW bet365
She cost £220,000 as a yearling at the sales and is related to a variety of smart performers in Lord admiral, sharp sailor, cannock chase, star catcher, and pisco sour via the 2nd dam, while the other 3 yearlings that the consignor sold in this same sale have gone on to be the useful Dhababi, Vintage Choice and Paris Lights. Fine balance was set to run at Newbury in a race which the trainer won last year with a horse who went on to run in the Sandringham, and in a race where i am not too inpressed by those who ha e ran, she may well be capable of being involved here as a debutant. She ran very well, she could easily have won, snd she was pretty tenderly handled in the closing stages. she’s very capable in this company. +0
3.30 (wed) Ayr Angel power 0.5 pts EW 9/2 hills.
She comes in to this after a recent run at listed level where the winner hasn’t franked the form in a group 2. Though she attempted to make all in a small field, and i still think this was a very useful run in terms of the company here. She had dissapointed in France on very soft ground im a Group 3 at the tail end of a long season, however id be willing to draw a line through that, as she finished 2nd in a decent listed race at saint cloud on her prior run with the horse who narrowly beat her dinishing a good 2nd in the aforementioned race where she disspointed. Beforehand Angel power was 5th when going of fav in a strong group 2 at the curragh. Taking In to account the weight she gave away, this wasn’t a disspointing run at all imo, and what would be deemed as her worst finishing positions, should still see her very capable of mixing it here at listed level off level weights. Achelois,My Astra, and blue brilliant look to be the clear dangers, but Angel power is capable of finding off the bridle with a run now behind her, and I’d be disspointed If she isn’t closely involved here. She ran well here, the winner absolutely bolted up and looks well up to group class. -0.05
1.40 Nottingham. Dreams Of Thunder. 0.25 pts EW 11/2 hills (4 places) She is yet to get off the mark, though she drops in to handicap company here off a mark of 72. She has been tried once over 6F however this was in very good company that she had no right to be in. All of her other form suggests that the step back up to 6F in this company is what She requires, and with a further 7 pounds being claimed off her. While she will likely be in need of a run for her new yard, There are no excuses why she wouldn’t be closely involved in this company. She won this very well and was entitled to do so with the claim and drop in ti handicap company. She Will find life tougher now. +1.65
3.35 Newmarket Distinguished lady. 0.5 pts EW 11/2 coral 5/1 bet365…
catalogued as 81A, the last lot on the first day of the sale, She was ridden in her breeze by her consignor, looked to be a nice individual, and Her bullet breeze caught the eye. She has a very relaxed temperament, was professional, while her time was comparatively decent. She is out of a winner in France, herself a daughter of a Listed winner in Ireland and could be running in to smart types here, though she looks to be just that herself. She ran well and ran in to a very smart godolphin horse, she could still be a reasonable proce going forward, and can win her maiden. +0
1.35 Newbury sat. Ehraz 0.5 pts EW 5/1 hills/ coral/ betfred
I though that was a strong race on seasonal debut, he travelled very well throughout the race, and was tenderly handled in the closing stages. Hierarchy ran in the same race and finished infront of him. He also has solid claims and over 7F that’s the way I’d go. However over 6F I’d expect ehraz to come on for the run and be strongly involved here. He all but won here, and obviously ran extremely well. He looks a live EW player for the commonwealth Cup. +0
5.40 Hamilton Friday, Seagrave fox 5/1 0.25 pts Win B364
1.30 Newbury Friday, Marbaan 14/1 0.25 pts EW 365
marbaan ran a stormer here to place in what was a very deep big field novice race, he’s clearly very useful, however he will now be found in the market as its obvious that he will win a normal maiden. so we move on to a whole load of exciting 2yo’s , while hopefully some of them will be declared in calmer waters. Seagrave fox was poor, with no excuses. +0.2
Despite finishing all but last on debut, He caught the eye, as he took a keen grip and travelled very well, while he was tenderly handled in the finish once his won chance was clearly no longer there. I am of the opinion that he will come on for the experience and is considerably better than his finishing position on this occasion.
I was hoping for a far easier maiden than this for marbaan where we may have increased stakes. However In all Honesty This race looks very deep on paper to place, nevermind win. Though a chance will be taken on Marbaan who I’m lead to belive is a smart type, and he’ll need to be, to get in to the mix here. amongst a whole bunch of others, The Foxes is a Churchill colt from proven stakes producer Tanaghum that made 440,000 guineas for Barronstown Stud when bought by Sackville Donald. The colt is a sibling to nine winners highlighted by Group I winner Matterhorn, Group II winner Bangkok, Group III winner Tactic and stakes-winner Yaazy as well as the dam of Champion Miler Ribchester.
4.18 Salisbury Dream by Day 0.25 pts EW 7/1 sky (4 places) He travels well through his races and has slightly disspointed right at the finish, as you could argue that at face value he has looked better than his finishing positions. The drop back down to 6F here would look to be very suitable, while the first time blinkers may also help, with any improvement shown at all, seeing him have claims of being involved here. He ran well. They attempted to make all down in trip as the headgear alluded to, which is how I saw him running beforehand. He just ran in to a couple of better ones. +0.1
2.55 Ascot. WALBANK 2 pts EW 6/1 Bet 365 .
walbank is a lovely, very well-balanced horse that i thought did an exceptional breeze as lot 29 which was the second-fastest of the lot. He looks very smart, and I’d go as far as saying that I’d expect him to be a Royal Ascot 2yo. He is from the family of G1 winner Albigna. His dam was a very good 2-year-old for Mark Johnston, and he comes from a very good farm. I’d feel we would be extremely unfortunate to run in to 2 or 3 in any maiden that are better than him. There are well bred horses all over here, the chief danger would look to be Noble Style who cost a huge £525,000 and represents a yard that has ran a norfolk stakes horse as well as a coventry stakes runner recently in this very maiden. With that said, I have a lot of confidence in my opinion of walbank So if we are beaten by a very good one, we have been unfortunate, and so be it. Walbank ran a stormer as expected, he came there to win and in any normal maiden he would have done. We have just been very unfortunate to run in to what is now the Fav for the Coventry. +0.4
5.20 Gowran Middlemarch 6/1 PP 0.25 pts EW.
While on a whole, I am waiting patiently for a whole bunch of 2yo’s that may well appear in the coming weeks… This is undoubtedly a strong 3yo maiden, with adonis, warren beach, schielle, and moe sedway all having solid form, while looking capable at this level. Middlemarch is well bred, and I am lead to believe that he is held in good regard, his future entry in the Dante would look to back that up and although Aidens 3yo’s in maidens almost always come on markedly for the run, I’d be willing to take a very small chance, in what is a deep looking maiden. he was held right up and was never given any chance, but he came home very well, and shaped very nicely for the future. -0.5
3.00 Newmarket Sat. Came from the dark 0.5pts EW 5/1 (4 places) sky/hills/coral/ betf.
There is a 2yo called Marbaan that has elected to skip Doncaster on sat, but he’s worth popping in a tracker, and you should have a decent hand for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday from the classics thread, but back to this race….
Its always dangerous backing any older horse first time out for the season.. however came from the dark has an outstanding attitude in the finish of a race. He was fortunate not to win this last season, having not found an entirely clear passage through. As long as he is fit to do himself justice, then he should be held up and make his presence felt here late on.
7.45 Punchestown. Pink in the Park 1.5pts coverbet (3 places) 11/4 b365
I have been about to post EW on her at 4/1 with 4places, and insurebet with 4 places at 5/2.. and each bet I wrote out and posted on the thread. However when about to notify, I double checked and the price immediately went.
I was on route to town to back myself with PP, so hopefully you have 365, i ha e been sat here making sure that proce stays for 20 mins. For those who don’t, and myself, I’ll be hoping she drifts back out again. See race card. …. – 1.26
7.45 punchestown Firm Footings 0.5 pts EW 9/2 Sky / B/F (4P)
see race card……. o.24T
1.40 limerick karakoul 1pt insurebet 3 places 2/1 (sky/betfred/hills)
Existing members will know that this is a bet that returns your stake if 2nd or 3rd, or pays out at 2/1 for a win. Karakoul has some solid form despite not winning to date. His last run, despite finishing 5th, does read well, as there was significant substance to the race. The front 2 in that race are irish 2000 Guineas horses, while the 4th has ran well against a horse that as far as im aware, has always been targetted towards the French 1000 Guineas. There are a couple of useful sorts in here around karakoul in the market, however I see him very much in that mix. He holds solid claims, i will be dissapointed if he finishes out of the 3, and absolutely not suprised, should he win. I would like to see him break prominently. O.29T
3.15 Haydock holiday 14/1 0.25 pts EW bet365…
Holiday is well regarded at home and has been tried very highly. He steps up in distance withing handicap company off a mark of 72. He should travel well in to this race, and I’d be hopeful that he out runs his odds here, as he is better than he has shown to date. I am still awaiting the Irish odds…
There will be no bet on Friday, as we will be having a reasonably busy end of the month. I’m currently prepping the Race Cards for all the days of Punchestown, where there will also ofcourse be related selections in here. 1.29T
4.30 Epsom Flying Secret. 0.25 pts EW 13/2 sky (4 places)
Flying secret makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 76. He kept himself in good company as a novice, and there are plenty of future winners and placed horses in and a round him, while he always shaped like he could be seen in a better light over today’s mile. He should appreciate this drop in grade in ti handicap company, as well as the step up in distance. He looks fairly treated off a mark of 76. While im sure he will come on for the run, a small chance will be taken. He didn’t break well out of the stalls, but over that distance and with the way that he finished, there is no excuse here. 1.79T
3.10 Fairyhouse Grangee 0.5pts EW 11/2 365/hills (4P)
Grangee is a small compact type that would be almost certian to stay over hurdles next season, everything seen from her bumpers to her hurdle races all suggest that she is going to improve as she goes out in trip. In the mares Nov she travelled well throughout and stayed on all the way to the line in a fine manner, and her previous defeat in open nov company was no disgrace, she was just committed too early. If she didn’t go close here at fairyhouse and there would be no excuses, as id be hopeful that she may run very respectably and show improvement here over the longer trip.
Dino blue doesn’t particularly look to want a test of stamina for now, she seemed to be made too much use of in the mares nov, and a reverse of tactics here, may see her be involved in a mich better light. Brandy love would have deffintely been my selction on a left handed track, though she still needs to prove here, that her wild hanging to left, isn’t something that will possibly cause an issue again. I saw no fluke about the winner love envoi at chelt, and she should be bang there again.
The best horse deffintely won here, she was well ridden to get away with the right handed track, she is ultimately too good for these. Love Envoi ran an absolute stormer again and is clearly very useful. Hors piste was given far too little respect, and looked a near certainty to place from an early stage. Grangee has zero excuses here, and did not find off the bridle. Perhaps she has ran 1 race too many, however she definitely wouldn’t be beating the top 2 here, over any trip. 2.29T
4.45 Newbury Heathen 10/1 0.25 pts EW bet365
the horses to follow thread is 2 for 2 with winners so far this season and Lionel tries to keep that record in tact in the 5.20. However I do not like the same of that race, with there being some potentially smart unraced sorts. In the 4.45, I’m hoping that may be a reasonable assessment of what Heathen could be. He was purchased as a yearling for £200k at Tattersalls, and is very well bred. Amongst others, he is related to the smart Dubhe and French Group 3 winner thunder drum, so it would be no suprise to see him go well here on debut. While William Buick looked a notable early jockey booking at his time of entry.
chef de parties cost £95k and ran well enough in 5th on debut. Indemnify cost £260,000 as a foal and is nicely bred. Morghom is a relation to the very smart mustajeeb, and there are a whole load of nice homebred types running in the names of their Breeders or stud. However I’m still willing to take a chance on Heathen as his breeding caught the eye early, I have had him noted down for some time as one of many 2yo’s that I am waiting for. I’m lead to believe that he could well be above average, and he’ll need to be.
he ran well to a point, he travelled well throughout the early and mid stages, was done for toe and eased late on. He looks very capable of winning a lesser maiden, and should he not in the next couple of starts, then he would be of huge interest with a step up in trip within handicap company. 3.29T
Duby duty free stakes. Sat 2.25 Newbury. Jumbly 0.5pts EW 9/2 bet364. There are some smart ones in here which you probably should have heard of, however one that I like is Jumbly. She was improving rapidly at the tail end of last season, and authoritively beat a pretty smart one in breeze easy. Should she have continued here progress, then she should be strongly involved here, and it’s not completely beyond the realms of possibility, that she could develop in to a 1000 Guineas horse. She is currently 33/1 for that race, while her rivals here include 20/1 shot wild beauty.
She ran extremely well here, and she was beat by a good one vwry Late on. The issue is that she was found in the market here late on, and very likely will be again. However, I am open to her being decent at Group level. +3.79T
Illustrating5.30 bath 0.25pts EW 4/1 (4 P) sky/quinnbet
I probably should have put up when I saw her at 11/2 yesterday, however I wasn’t too pleased with the pace terms for the ammount of runners here. So I waited, to see if those with 4, would match that price or go 5/1. So in the future, I’ll just go with the early price and lesser place terms to save the hassle of constantly re-checking the price over the last 18 hours.
Teresa mendoza is a nice filly, if this was 6F I may have edged her way, however here at Bath over 5F, in theory, it should be all too late that she appears.
Illustrating should have no problems with the 5F but will later get 6. Her form is solid, she has a 3yo allowance, and should she come back in good form, she should be closely involved here. You’d be inclined to think that she should have somewhat trained on, as connections also had the option of attagirl here.
White lavender has some good form, and seems to gave early toe, that should see her go nicely through the early and middle part of the race. It’s debatable what she will find in the finish here. Hello my darling ran poorly first time out this season and is to be watched. Get Ahead is only rated 87, though should be capable of bettering that this season, as she’s pretty useful. Fearless angel is highly rated, and does have a recent run under her belt in France, where she was only narrowly beaten at a decent level. They will be hoping that First time cheek pieces can do the trick. Tenaya canyon is another who’s rating is lower, though may well have achieved more than the likes of fearless angel, via running well when beaten in better company.
she was a shade disspointing here, and I would just see that as lack of race fitness. She ran OK, and she will find more off the bridle in later contests. Where she is of interest at a similar level. +3.84T
6.20 Gowran Lyrical poetry 0.25pts EW 8/1 (365)
Kiss you later has ran in some deep races, has some very useful form. Caromil cost a lofty €300k at the sales and holds an Irish oaks entry.
Antilia holds an Irish oaks entry. Honey comb is very well bred, and is related to the very smart ballet shoes who was deemed good enough to run in the Moyglare as a 2yo.
Paso robles is well Bred and a half sister to the former pretty smart French 2yo Fastnet thunder.
Lyrical poetry is well noted in the horses to follow. I was hoping that she would be seen in calmer waters, as she’s definitely running in to a few here as above. However I’m willing to still take a small chance, as I feel she is out of the ordinary, and would be very capable in an ordinary maiden. This is a cut above, however she should still go pretty well.
she won this nicely, and was given zero respect out front for a horse of her ability. She never looked in any danger here. She is well worth a try back up in grade, down the line.
1.15 Newmarket powerdress 0.25pts EW 6/1 PP
Powerdress was a 130k yearling out of a half sister to stakes performer Daniels flyer, she is also related to tropez power and concierge. Powerdress is running in a race that symphony perfect was set to run in last season before being a late NR. She was 2nd in the supersprint, and 5th in the £200,000 Weatherbys Scientific 200,000 2-Y-O Stakes before going on to win at listed level. Powerdress holds the same scientific stakes entry for later in the season, and she is well Bred.
Bojink “Roger tells me at this stage in the horse’s training she is doing everything right and on what he has seen to date she is well above average”
Flying barty is a half sister to boonie who did very well for connections last season amongst finishing 3rd in the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot.
Dreaming princess cost 60k at the sales, family ties is related to the same connections half decent ballet steps.
Yahsat is related to the pretty smart pair of royal address and straits of Moyle.
Radio Googoo cost £50k at the sales, and holds a wetherbys supersprint entry, though her relations have been dissapointing.
While Lost Angel is a £150,000 full sister to both Maggie Angel, and Joseph o’briens 105 rated San andreas. So she is to be noted, while the opposition are all to be respected.
she won this well, she will get further, though she was just a little green early on. She will be obviously well found in the market now, and wouldn’t be of interest uo in grade.
1.55 curragh panic alarm 0.5pts EW pp 20/1
This is a 2yo I have been waiting for, and I’m lead to belive that he is smart, as per his mention Briefly in the horses to follow. Aidens horse I’m lead to belive is potentially an early royal Ascot type, so we’re deffo running in to atleast 1 here. however we have decent odds to take that In to account, I expect panic alarm to go well here, while obviously I also expect aidens to aswell.
We have without doubt just ran in to atleast 2 very smart types that were prominent and knew their job. The 3rd is likely very useful too. Panic alarm wasn’t positioned ideally, however he ran very well and there are no excuses. I would ideally have liked to have seen him not run against what are clearly some very smart types, however such as his reputation at home, they had no second thoughts about pitching him in here. Unfortunately he will likely be found in the market from here on in and should have no issue winning a maiden against lesser types. There wil be plenty of winners out of this race. -1.06T
Mise le meas 9/2 0.25 pts EW sky/ betfred (5P)
Voice of angels 9/2 0.25 pts EW sky/ betfred (5P)
Stakes will be kept very small atm for those that haven’t had a prior run. Mise le meas looks to be a potential stakes filly, and she was being considered to go to the Breeders cup. 7F would look to be her trip for now and she has a nice racing weight, so there will be no excuses.
Voice of angels may likely have preffered a mile or 9F however this looks a good opportunity for a nice filly who should also be capable of making up in to a stakes horse. She went well in her barrier trial at dundalk behind a smart one in Magical lagoon. Her prior form is decent and she has a nice racing weight. There will be no excuses here.
they both ran very well, Mise le meas looked the winner all over, though was beaten cery late on by one at the foot of the weights. Voice of angles race nicely, she will do well back up in trip.