Protected: Beginners Guide to Racing series (pt1)

How to read a Racecard

We will be starting off with a simple traditional look at how to read a Racecard

A Racecard is a piece of information for all fans and punters that provides all the key details you need to know about each horse. In Horse Racing, It can be a printed or an online card, giving information about the day’s races, principally the horses running in each particular race. Racecards are often given in newspapers, online format, or you can purchase a race card at the racecourse itself, which is a small booklet issued for use at a race meeting.

A typical racecard lists information, not only about the horse’s name, but also its age and the weight it has to carry in the race. The rider and trainer are listed, plus figures indicating the horse’s recent form.

The following are all usually seen as the traditional key components of a racecard…

Saddle Cloth Number – The horse’s individual race number. This will be prominently displayed on the horse’s saddle.
Name – The name of the horse. The horse’s name will often be a creative combination of its parent’s names, or something completely different.
Age – The age of the horse isn’t always a way of finding a winner, but some punters look closely at the age of former winners to try to predict a trend.
Weight – The weight each horse has to carry is displayed in stone and pounds (eg 9-9). The weight is decided by the conditions of the race, whether the horse is in a handicap or must carry a penalty.
Trainer – The trainer of the horse can often be a useful guide, with some trainers having better records with younger horses, horses at different tracks and horses from a certain family. Horses from powerful trainers such as Willie Mullins or John Gosden are likely to be well supported.
Jockey – A star jockey like Frankie Dettori will always attract attention on the racecard and sometimes it pays to follow a top jockey who has travelled a long way to a meeting just for one ride. Sometimes next to a jockey’s name there is a number in brackets, and this is known as a claim, which is a weight allowance given to an inexperienced jockey that is used to reduce their horse’s allotted weight. New jockeys receive a 7lb claim, but as they register more winners it drops to 5lb and then 3lb before they lose that benefit altogether.
Form figures – The form figures represent a horse’s finishing position in previous races. This can indicate whether a horse is in-form and can be used as a guide to help pick the winner.
Draw (Flat only) – Knowing what position in the stalls the horse is in is a useful tool. The layout of some tracks favours different positions in the stalls – a key example would be the Kentucky Derby, where the higher the draw number the further you are from the rail. Stall 20 of 20 is commonly known as “out in the car park” and it is often much harder to win that race from a high-numbered draw.
Breeding – For many, the breeding is an integral part of the racecard as you can, in theory, work out how good a horse might be by looking at the form of its parents and siblings.

C – C stands for Course and will appear next to the name of horses who have achieved a win at the track. Some tracks are quite unusual and knowing your horse is able to handle the track is often a positive sign.

D – D stands for Distance and will appear if a horse has won over the distance of the race under consideration. This is important, because if a horse has won over the trip before it may have an advantage over opponents who lack that proven stamina.

CD – CD denotes a course-and-distance win, meaning the horse has won over both course and distance at the same time, im some occasions, they may even have won the race in previous years.

BF – stands for Beaten Favourite. If they were favourite for their last race, the expectation might have been for them to win and it may be seen as a sign that they have the ability to do better this time.

Number next to name – the number next to a horse’s name shows how many days have passed since the horse’s last run. If the horse has been out for a while it could be lacking race fitness.
Comment – The comment under each horse, or beside a horse’s name, give a little reasoning behind the horse’s form and its chances. As a beginner it can be useful to read this before betting.
Betting forecast – The betting forecast is not the exact or current odds of the horse, but a prediction of what the writer interprets they will likely be.

As you can see above, in this case MIN is No. 6.

Wind procedures are now also detailed on race cards.

When a horse is having his or her first run since undergoing any form of wind surgery. This will be done by putting the letters ‘WS’ next to his or her name in the same way as ‘V’ is used for visor.

Which type of surgery a horse has had will not be denoted on racecards but trainers will be required at point of declaration to inform the BHA which of five types of surgery is involved.

Although ‘WS’ will appear only on racecards for the horse’s first run post-surgery, a trainer must make the official notification after each new surgery, meaning ‘WS’ could appear against a horse’s name before more than one start, although this will be rare.

the five types of surgery covered by the new rule are…

Tie back (prosthetic laryngoplasty)

Hobday (ventriculectomy/ cordectomy)

Epiglottic surgery

Tie forward (dorsal displacement soft palate surgery)

Soft palate cautery.

Wind procedures CAN see a dramatic improvement, especially after a long break. However I wouldn’t advise backing this blind.

The most common procedure Palatal Cautery which simply involves burning the oral surface of the soft palate aims to produce significant scar tissue and hence a stiffening of the tissue making the billowing sail behaviour less likely. This is currently the most widely adopted technique in the UK and is favoured because it is very easy to perform, carries little risk and the horse can remain in training. It is a pretty crude procedure but it does seem to produce results however they may be short lived (9 to 10 months) and so the surgery often needs to be repeated.

In summary, all of the above are traditionally ways in looking into form, some people choose to use STATS to back up there claims, or even back blind whilst following this. If that’s of interest im sure a quick Google search will help you, but unfortunately that is something I will not be covering in this series.

Protected: Beginners Guide to Racing Series (pt2)

Making use of betting exchanges. (As requested)

what is back and lay betting on betting exchanges

If you haven’t used them, Betting exchanges can seem daunting at first, even if you are experienced when it comes to using standard online bookmakers.

When you arrive at your chosen exchange you will see that things are laid out a little differently than you are used to. For a start, there is a back price and a lay price presented for each market, usually denoted by different colours.

These prices can change at any time, and for live or particularly fluid markets those with lots of people betting on them – the odds can increase and decrease every few seconds.

Imo the first thing you need to understand when using a betting exchange is the odds and they will always be presented in decimals. These are easy to follow and if you are used to using fractional odds, it will not take look to get used to the decimal version found at betting exchanges.

However, there is one aspect to lay betting you need to be aware of and that’s a liability. You are essentially taking the role of a bookmaker when you lay a bet. So, if you put a £10 bet on odds of 8.0 and it wins, you win £70.

However, this is reversed when laying a bet and to make £10 you would need to bet £70. You will see an amount of money under each set of odds at betfair exchange and this is the liquidity available for that bet. The more popular the market, the higher the liquidity and you must always check there is enough liquidity or your bet runs the risk of not being matched.

The great thing about lay betting is it can be used to lay off your stake ks you have backed at bigger odds, therefore giving you the option of effectively having a free bet.

To place a lay bet, simply click the lay odds you want to go for (and adjust them if you like) and enter your stake, then the betslip will show you how much your liability is. It’s key to note that when laying a bet your stake is the amount you stand to win, not how much you stand to lose as it would be with a back bet.

Backing should be pretty self evident with it being the same as a traditional bookmakers, only the odds are kn decimal form.

Betting exchange commission

Traditional bookmakers generate their earnings from the over-round on any given market. Betfair, on the other hand, have very little over round. They produce their profits through a charging commission on any net winnings.

Only winning bets get charged commissions, if you have a loser, you will receive no charge at all

The default market base for customers in the UK and Ireland is 5%.

Betfair 5%. Commission

Smarkets 2% commission

Betdaq 3% commission

Matchbook 1.5% commission

Liquidity

Liquidity is the sum of money available for you to bet for the chosen event and odds. When placing a wager at a betting exchange, you are betting against another gambler. When two people are betting against each other, the betting exchange will match them.

There must be enough liquidity on the betting exchange for the odds on which you want to bet to be able to put the bet. In other words, there must be enough money available to match the wager you want to place. This could be a back bet or a lay bet.

To find the liquidity for the odds on which you would like to bet, you just need to look directly under the odds. Here you will find a number and this is the total liquidity available. Usually the closer to the event you are, the larger the liquidity will be.

How this applys to you

For an example of using my own bets from my service, the odds often drop instantly as selections go out, we are obviously in long term profit, however you have the option and may want to make use of betting exchanges to lay off your stake on the day, should the odds dramatically decrease. Which would effectively be giving you free bets.

In terms of Cheltenham antepost this is also the case, that you may decide to lay off stake, where antepost bets as we all know can unfortunately be lost due to injury, where you may take this into prior consideration and decide to lay off your stake there also.

All of the above is something to bear in mind, and possibly add to your current betting regime, if you do not currently use the betting exchanges.

Protected: Beginners Guide to Racing Series (pt3)

Racing terminology A-Z

Abandoned:

A race meeting may be abandoned due to poor weather conditions. All bets on races that get abandoned are refunded.

Accumulator:

A bet on 4 or more selections in separate races. All selections must win to get a return. May also be known as a parlay

Added Weight:

Weight carried by a horse that is over the amount required by the conditions of a race. Typically due to a jockey exceeding the weight limit.

All Age Race:

A race for all horses aged two years and older.

All Out:

When a horse is running at full speed.

All Weather:

An artificial racing surface designed to be suitable for racing in all weather conditions.

Allowance Race:

A race in which the required weights to be carried by the competing horses is determined by factors such as age, gender and previous performances.

Allowance:

Reduction in the required weight to be carried in accordance with the conditions of a race.

Amateur:

A jockey that does not receive fees for riding in races.

Ante-Post Betting:

Betting well in advance of a race. When this is

Apprentice:

A trainee jockey.

At The Post:

Horses are said to be at the post when they arrive at the start.

Banker:

A horse considered by many to be strongly favored to win a race.

Bearing In/Out:

When a horse deviates from a straight course.

Betting Ring:

The area at a racecourse where the on-course bookmakers are situated.

Bit:

A piece of equipment that is fitted into a horse’s mouth and attached to the bridle. Helps a jockey to guide and control a horse.

Bleeder:

A horse that often suffers from broken blood vessels when racing.

Blinkers:

A garment fitted to a horse’s head to reduce vision to the side and focus it to the front. Interestingly blinkers are used the complete opposite way in America, here they are seen to assist a horse when running more prominently to be alert about the race ahead. Where as in america they are used mainly as a learning device for juveniles to relax

Bookmaker:

A person or organization licensed to take bets. Often abbreviated to bookie.

Boxed In:

When a horse gets trapped behind or between other horses.

Breather:

Jockeys may give a horse a breather during a race, allowing it time to fill its lungs.

Breeder:

An individual or organization that breeds racehorses.

Bridle:

A piece of equipment that fits over a horse’s head and is used to control the horse. Holds the bit in the horse’s mouth.

Canadian:

A bet that combines 26 separate wagers on 5 selections. Also known as a Super Yankee.

Chalk Player:

A bettor that backs mostly favorites.

Chalk:

The favorite horse in a race, i.e. the one with the lowest odds.

Chaser:

A horse that runs in steeplechase races.

Claiming Race:

A race in which the competing horses are all for sale.

Classic:

A race of traditional significance.

Clerk Of The Course:

The racecourse official that has overall responsibility for the course.

Clerk Of The Scales:

The racecourse official responsible for weighing jockeys before and after a race.

Closer

A horse that runs well towards the end of a race.

Colt:

An ungelded male horse aged four years or younger.

Combination Bet:

A bet that consists of multiple wagers on multiple selections combined into one.

Combination Tricast:

A bet on which three horses will finish in the top three positions in a race, in any order. Also known as reverse triactor, combination tricast.

Conditions Race:

A type of race in which horses may be allocated extra weight based on factors such as age, gender and previous performances.

Conformation:

The build and physical structure of a horse.

Connections:

The people connected with a horse such as the owner(s) and the trainer.

Course Specialist:

A horse that is proven at a specific racecourse.

Dead Heat:

When two or more horses cannot be separated at the finishing post, resulting in a tie.

Double:

A bet on 2 selections in separate races. Both selections must win to get a return.

Draw:

The starting position of a horse in the stalls for a flat race.

Driving:

Pushing a horse to its maximum limits.

Dual Forecast:

See Exacta.

Each Way Bet:

A win bet and a place bet combined.

Earmuffs:

Equipment that is placed over a horse’s ears to prevent possible distraction from noise.

Entire Horse:

An ungelded horse.

Exacta:

A bet on which two horses will finish in the top two positions in a race, in the correct order. Also known as duel forecast, exactor, perfecta.

Exotics:

A collective term used to describe certain wagers that are more complex than straight bets.

Field:

Collective term for all the horse in a race.

Filly:

A female horse aged four years or younger.

Firm:

A condition of a turf course; indicates there is little to no give in the ground.

Fixed Odds Betting:

Betting with a bookmaker with agreed odds at the time of placing a wager.

Flat Racing:

Racing where there are no obstacles for the horses to negotiate.

Form:

The racing record of a horse.

Front Runner:

A horse who tends to run races from the front, or close to it.

Full Cover Bet:

A bet that combines multiple wagers on multiple selections so that you don’t need all your selections to win to get a return.

Furlong:

A unit of distance equivalent to 220 yards/660 feet/one eighth of a mile.

Gelding:

A male horse that has been neutered.

Going:

The going describes the condition of the surface at a race track.

Goliath:

A bet that combines 247 separate wagers on 8 selections.

Graded Race:

A race of a certain quality. Can be Grade I, II or III with Grade I being the highest quality.

Group Race:

A race of a certain quality. Can be Group 1, 2, or 3, with Group 1 being the highest quality.

Hand:

A unit of measure used to describe the height of a horse. Equal to 4 inches.

Handicap Race:

A race where the horses are allocated a weight to carry as decided by the official Handicappers. The goal is to level the playing field so all the horses have a theoretically equal chance of winning.

Handicap Rating:

A rating assigned to a horse once it has run three times, used to determine what weight it will carry in a handicap race. The better the horse the higher the rating.

Hard:

A condition of a turf course; indicates there is no give in the ground.

Heinz:

A bet that combines 57 separate wagers on 6 selections.

Hurdler:

A horse that races over hurdles.

Jockey:

The rider of a horse in a race.

Jump Racing:

Racing where there are obstacles for the horses to negotiate, such as fences and ditches.

Juvenile:

A two year old horse on the flat. juvenile hurdling is for 3/4 year olds.

Length:

An approximate unit of measure used to describe the distance between horses. For example “he went eight lengths clear in the final straight”. Equal to the average length of a horse.

Level Weights:

When all horses are carrying equal weight.

Listed Race:

A race of slightly lower quality than Group Races and Graded Races.

Lock:

Slang term for a sure winner.

Longshot:

A horse with high odds that is not expected to have much chance in a race.

Lucky 15:

A bet that combines 15 separate wagers on 4 selections.

Lucky 31:

A bet that combines 31 separate wagers on 5 selections.

Lucky 63:

A bet that combines 63 separate wagers on 6 selections.

Maiden Race:

A race for horses (or jockeys in some cases) that have never won a race.

Maiden:

A horse or jockey that has never won a race.

Mare:

A female horse aged five years or older.

Muddy:

A condition of a course; indicates it’s wet but there is little or no standing water.

National Hunt:

The official term for jump racing in the UK and Ireland.

Nod:

The action of a horse lowering its head. Used to describe a very close finish between two horses. For example “he won on the nod”.

Non Runner:

A horse that was expected to run in a race but is withdrawn for some reason.

Nose:

An approximate measure to describe the distance between horses, typically used at the end of a race. For example “he just won it by a nose”. Roughly 5% of one length.

Objection:

A complaint made by one jockey against another, relating to some action in a race.

Odds On:

Odds of less than even money, meaning you can only win less than your initial stake (plus your stake returned).

On The Bridle:

A term to describe a horse that is running comfortably.

On The Nose:

Slang term for betting on a horse to win only.

Paddock:

Area of a racecourse where horses are saddled prior to a race.

Parimutuel Betting:

A form of betting where all stakes are pooled and, after deductions, the pool is split between winning bets. Also known as tote betting.

Parlay:

A bet on 4 or more selections in separate races. All selections must win to get a return. Also known as an accumulator.

Patent:

A bet that combines 7 separate wagers on 3 singles.

Photo Finish:

When two or more horses are so close at the finishing post that a photo is used to determine the winner.

Place Bet :

A bet on a specified horse to finish first second or 3rd in a specified race of atleast 8 runners

Place Bet (Other):

A bet on a specified horse to finish in the places (first 2, 3 or 4 positions, depending on race and number of horses).

Post Time:

Scheduled starting time for a race.

Pulled Up:

When a horse is stopped during a race.

Purse:

The total amount of prize money awarded for a race.

Refuse:

When a horse will not start a race, or will not jump an obstacle.

Reverse Exacta:

A bet on which two horses will finish in the top two positions in a race, in either order. Also known as reverse forecast, reverse perfecta, quinella.

Reverse Forecast:

See Reverse Exacta.

Reverse Trifecta:

A bet on which three horses will finish in the top three positions in a race, in any order. Also known as reverse triactor, combination tricast.

Scratch:

To remove a horse from a race before it starts.

Short Head:

An approximate measure to describe the distance between horses, typically used at the end of a race. For example “she only won by a short head”. Roughly 10% of one length.

Silks:

The jacket and cap worn by jockeys to represent the owner of the horse they are riding.

SP:

See Starting Price.

Sprint:

A short race run at a quick pace. Typically less than one mile.

Stallion:

A male horse used for breeding.

Starting Price:

The final betting odds in place at the time a race starts. Commonly abbreviated to SP.

Stayer:

A horse with good stamina that tends to do well in long races.

Steeplechase:

A type of race in which the horses have to jump over obstacles.

Stud Book:

A registry of Thoroughbred horses. Maintained by the relevant club or association in each region.

Stud:

A male horse used for breeding or a breeding farm/stable.

Super Heinz:

A bet that combines 120 separate wagers on 7 selections.

Super Yankee:

A bet that combines 26 separate wagers on 5 selections. Also known as Canadian.

Thoroughbred:

The breed of horse used for most competitive horse racing.

Tote Betting:

See Parimutuel Betting.

Treble:

a bet on 3 selections in separate races. All 3 selections must win to get a return.

tricast:

A bet on which three horses will finish in the top three positions in a race, in the correct order. Also known as trifector.

Triple Crown: A series of classic or famous races. Different regions have their own Triple Crowns.Trixie:A bet that combines 4 separate wagers on 3 selections.

A straight bet on a specified horse to win a specified race.

Yankee: A bet that combines 11 separate wagers on 4 selections.

Yearling:

A horse aged one year.

Yielding: A condition of a turf course; indicates wet ground with plenty of give.

Protected: Beginners Guide to Racing Series (pt4)

Traditional and Modern Betting Angles.

1. Eye catcher

a horse which runs well after meeting trouble in running is an obvious one to note. Using up energy during the race and running well indicates a horse which can run better than the bare form will show.

Trouble in running could include being boxed in and having to run round horses, being bumped, running into a group of horses and having to be pulled back or check stride when making an effort.

In jumps racing you could look out for mistakes at fences, other horses running into each other and anything else which could use up energy in a race. If a horse meets this sort of trouble and runs well, then without the trouble they should run even better.

2. Single entry/ single ride

When you are looking through the days race card, keep your eye out for how many horses each trainer has entered into a race at that course that day.

If a trainer is going to the effort to just take the one horse to races, they likely think that the horse is in with a good shout of winning.

You should shortlist these horses and take a look at them in more detail.

It’s also worth noting how far a trainer is traveling in order to run the horse. They aren’t very likely to travel a long distance with just one horse if they don’t think they have a chance of winning some prize money.

These horses might not always have a lot of previous form, in which case, you may be able to back them at relatively high odds.

A second and similar angle that you can use in conjunction with the first, or even on it’s own is to look at how many horses a jockey is racing at a meeting and how far they are traveling to do so.

If you spot a jockey who isn’t riding at his usual track and is only entered in one race that day, there’s a good chance he’s not just racing at a different course for a change of scenery.

3. Conditioning

Paddock watchers are a dying breed but there are still some out there who will travel the racecourses using their skills of being able to spot a fit racehorse to try and gain an edge. In certain types of races such as 2 year old races and hunter chases, early season races, understanding which horses are fit is a huge advantage.

Researching and understanding what to look for in the paddock could give you a distinct advantage of the average punter

4. Quick turnaround

Some trainers specifically aim for their horses to win two races in quick succession to take advantage of running again under a penalty rather than a new handicap mark.

You can notice these tactics when you look at the entries a horse holds. If a horse is very well entered in multiple races after today’s race, it could be a sign of a trainer’s intention to run their horse again soon under penalty.

5. Rating

ratings are an easy way to be able to quickly analyse a race. Many a winner finding system has been attempted using form ratings.

There are many different form rating services available for free. You can use one on its own or combine more than one to come up with your own bespoke system

6. Using flat handicap ratings to predict juvenile hurdle races

Many horses convert from flat racing to hurdle racing.

Until they jump a hurdle no one is completely sure as to how the animal will take to National Hunt racing, one metric punters use is how highly they were rated on the flat.

A rule many use is to add 40Lbs from its flat rating, so if a horse is rated 65 on the flat this has him running to a mark of around 105.
The rule is nowhere near foolproof and i would strongly advise against it.

7. Using Trainer Comments & Stable Tours

It is important to listen and take in as much information if you are going to regularly find winners. Much of this info can come from trainers via stable tours and when the trainer is interviewed in the press or on TV.

Future winners can be highlighted by the trainer especially those trainers who are more effusive, the trainer knows most about their horses so are always worth a listen.

Just as important are the quotes trainers give their horses both pre and post race. Future winners can be found. however it would be foolish to take post race quotes as gospel.

8. Course & Distance Winners

Researching course and distance winners is a cornerstone for many punters in their quest to find winners.

All C&D winners feature on racecards signified by the letters C&D next to the horse’s name.

9. Sectional times

Any race can be re-assessed by examining the pace the race was run at. In simple terms, a slowly run race favours front-runners and very fast run races favour hold-up horses.

Using sectional timing you can calculate the pace of a race and therefore calculate the difference it would have made if each horse had run efficiently rather than at the pace at which they actually raced. Performances can be upgrade or downgraded to reflect the advantage or disadvantage the pace of the race conveyed.

10. Barrier Trials

The Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board, holds Barrier Trials for unraced two-year-old and three-year-old horses on several occasions throughout the year. The Trials are staged to meet the strong demand from overseas for quality unraced thoroughbreds.

Trials are run over distances of 5, 6, and 7 furlongs

Trials are recorded, timed, and made available online to view.

Below is a useful link

https://www.itm.ie/en/Barrier_Trials/Entries_Results/

11. Future entries

On the flat In juvenile races, there will be a small ammount of horses entered for maidens with lofty future entries, some trainers block enter a whole host of horses where as some smaller trainers may have just a or 2, this is usually a shrewd angle as they can be a significant prices overnight, and the entry fee paid for future races, is often not made in blind hope.

12. Trends

trends of past winners of a specific race are very popular as they help to identify the type of horse which has won this specific race in the past, people can choose to use these to help them to narrow down the field.

Imo each horse is an individual, and it is foolish to group them together, via age, sex, number of runs…… because they’re just not the same ability as the previous horse’s your grouping them together with.

13. Making your own tissue

This is something we will be going into detail about at a later date, imo this is vital, you need to write down your own odds and therefore your implied chance given, to compare with the bookmakers odds that will be available.
Imo its important that you do this ahead of time, at declaration stages, and do not check for odds or betting forecasts beforehand.

14. trainer patterns

Trainers are often creatures of habit, that often take the same path year after year, when betting antepost, you should be looking ahead in advance, and studying where is the logical route to go from here. should a horse then win, you are prepared, and have an educated guess on future assignments, before trainers quotes and further market cuts take place.

15. International racing

Imo it’s important to broaden your horizons, in particular I’m a keen viewer and form student of us and french racing, often horses are purchased from France to come over these shores, if you have a basic understanding of the form, or can pay off significantly, as bookmakers traders can often price incorrectly due to a lack of international knowledge, especially when one has moved to the smaller yards, ie indiana jones who was foolishly proved up at 16/1 for a maiden hurdle over here, after running between graded performers in France.

Below is a useful link

http://www.france-galop.com/en

US performers in the UAE derby, and the dirt mile are often massively overpriced, with conditions in there favour and pts on the road to the Kentucky derby on offer, usually the market is made up of a couple of horses in blue who have hosed up in poor small fields during the carnival nights. The US horses come over without the flashy form figures or winning margins, however have been running in far more competitive fields In very similar conditions.

below is a useful link

https://www.equibase.com

In summary

I have tried to indicate which of these are useful and which are somewhat myths.

If I had to narrow it down,

Imo 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. Are the most important and where i would spend my time. And make use of the links provided.

we will be covering them individually in the future.

Ofcourse there may well be people reading this who know all of the above, however we are starting from the beginning and working our way through to things where im sure even the most seasoned punters, will pick up things in due course.

Across this series………..in the near future, i will be going into what I personally look for on a racecard, which can differ greatly from the standard traditional interpretation. We will be touching on video analysis and what imo are some things well worth looking out for, when re viewing previous races. We will also be discussing FREE tools that are out there and available to help you view all of this….

I have also had a request to look into where I find the french horses coming over here from, so let me know if that’s of wider interest.

If theres anything else in particular that anyone would like to see, feel free to PM me anonymously.

Protected: Beginners Guide to Racing Series (pt5)

Reading form and how to turn that into odds.

When I begin my form study for a meeting, the first thing I do is look for losers.

If you can weed out the losers, the winners will be easier to find.

It goes without saying that anyone who takes punting seriously and is determined to make a long-term profit from the pursuit, when investigating a race must pay attention to all the various form components
However, studying form to such a degree takes a lot of time and can become wearisome, despite the pleasure it may bring when your prognostications ultimately prove correct and put you in the money.

What I am suggesting – this first search for losers – will make things a lot easier and, I believe, improve your results.

Potential losing factors take many forms, but the main aspects to consider are big fields, left/right handed bias, wrong distances, 1st time in a considerably higher grade, bad draws, ground conditions and too much weight.

(We haven’t seen the prices yet, so you shouldn’t be discarding due to price alone)

So at the very outset of my form study I quickly glance over the upcoming cards and put a small cross against the potential losing factors (as I see them) of the various horses in the lists of starters and riders.
It’s amazing then, how a race will take on a much clearer appearance.

However it is vital that you do know the horses that you are crossing out, so if you dont, you will have to ideally view the video analysis of the whole field, however the whole purpose is to over time, that you will have the form memorised so that you automatically know the ones to discount, without having to waste the time of looking in to them further to make sure.

This will then allow you to start
video analysis of the horse you have left. Saving you alot of time.

However, i’m personally spending no less than five hours on each race day and watching up to 100 re-runs for each race meeting.

Watching re-runs is essential in form study, as a form book never tells the full truth of how a race was run.

This can be very frustrating as you can spend all this time and land on no bet, however it’s often valuable information that as above, is saving you time for a later date.

During video analysis
There are so many factors that can influence the outcome of a race and any horse’s individual performance, and the only way to pick this up is by watching re-runs and doing your homework thoroughly.

The pace of a race for example can influence the result of a race dramatically.

Relying on performance and/or speed figures on paper that are solely based on a final time can be helpful but it is only one piece of the puzzle and you may be missing out on important information that can cost you.
Many times final time ratings are influenced by what goes on early in the race (the pace).

So imo your far better off going on your own visual impression yourself during video analysis, than just using finishing times on the day, or trying to compare that to different races, when it’s just not comparable for the reasons above.

Imo it’s important to view the whole race, not just the finish

Most horses have one particular running style early in the race. The speed at which the race is run (pace scenario) tends to favor one horse’s running style over another. How the race is run early often dictates which horse will prevail at the finish line.
So therefore it’s useful to try and work out who is going to make the pace,

is there something that is likely to make a slow or frenetic pace, and how that will effect the horse your looking at.

You dont want to be backing a horse with an abundance of stamina for example, in a race with no pace on and a likely sprint finish.

Another reason The start of a race can be as important as the finish, is that for example, You dont want to be backing a 5f sprinter, or a horse in a big field sprint handicap, that is a notorious slow starter out of the stalls.

Or alternatively a horse can be marked up, or the run wrote off entirety, for a horse that usually makes the running, however was drawn very wide, reared in the stalls for the 1st time, or was hampered and unable to get to the lead.

Was something very keen through the early stages of the race? if so a chance may be taken if they’re dropping in trip, or there is alot more pace on at the same trip.

Or this may allow you to discount them up in trip. Or in a race which is likely to have similarly little pace on.

Was something unlucky during the race?

As per the last part in this series, you could be looking for an Eye catcher

a horse which runs well after meeting trouble in running is an obvious one to note. Using up energy during the race and running well indicates a horse which can run better than the bare form will show.

Trouble in running could include being boxed in and having to run round horses, being bumped, running into a group of horses and having to be pulled back or check stride when making an effort.

In jumps racing you could look out for mistakes at fences, other horses running into each other and anything else which could use up energy in a race. If a horse meets this sort of trouble and runs well, then without the trouble, In theory they should run even better.

Now you have all the evidence and analysis to may be thinking of
Making your own odds, however there are a couple more factors to take into account.

If you are compiling a tissue for a non-handicap race, you should initially consider what each horse’s official handicap mark is and how this relates to the weight it is carrying. Some horses will be carrying more weight against their rivals than they would be in a handicap, and are therefore likely to face stiff tasks

On the flip side, some horses will be ‘better off’ than they would be if they were meeting the same rivals in a handicap and are therefore likely to have decent chances.

To work out how much of an advantage/disadvantage each horse has, it is useful to calculate how much better/worse off they are. For example, a Grade One race might have five runners, all of which must carry 11-10. If those horses are officially rated 168, 165, 164, 160 and 157, it is clear that some have pretty hard tasks if the handicap marks are roughly accurate. For example, the horse rated 157 would carry 11 lb less than the one rated 168 if the race was a handicap, so would be effectively 11lb badly treated in this race. As a result, it likely faces a difficult task and its odds will likely reflect that.

Once you have considered the weights each horse must carry relative to their handicap marks, you should also take into account their recent finishing positions and SPs as you would when assessing handicap races. You may reshuffle your order slightly based on this information.

For handicap races, you need to assess the relevant weights, any penalty they may carry, and any riders taking off a claim.

Taking all of the above into consideration
Using the form study and video analysis you have gathered, plus taking to account whether it is a handicap or non handicap race, you can now make your own tissue.

For every horse, you can assign odds that you think are fair.

For example, if the probability figure suggests the horse has a 20% chance of winning, then that is essentially 5/1. If the horse is calculated as having a probability figure of 25% then again that equates to around 4/1

Convert these odds to a percentage.

Add all the individual percentages together to get the total line percentage.

Imo i personally dont work out via 100 percent, i include takeout and breakage in the equation. In this case, a total line percentage of between 105 and up to 110 percent is what i personally strive for.

Beneath or beyond that, though, I would suggest re-calculating or massaging your fair odds. Perhaps the horse you listed at 2-1 should be 5-2 instead. Maybe a couple of the horses you tabbed at 15-1 should really be 20-1. Continue making adjustments like this until the total line percentage meets your goal.

You can now use your own odds to compare against the bookmakers when they open up there odds around 4.45pm.

Trial and error and ultimately results will dictate in the long term whether your own preference is to back just the one with the widest difference in odds. Multiple horses in a single race, or to smaller stakes absolutely anything within a margin of where your getting for instance 25% above your tissue prices throughout the card.

Imo being selective is the way to go, but it can be frustrating to narrow down, and see one of the ones you have reluctantly cut from calculations go and win.

In summary, it takes an awful lot of hard work, time and patience, to get from reading the race card, to being able to compile your own accurate odds, over time it will come naturally, and you will do it without thinking much about it, however a love for the sport itself is very beneficial, as watching hours on end of racing replays after and before watching the live racing, is not for everybody. understandably people have jobs and are unable to do so, however if being a punter is to be your job one day, and on the future you wanted to take it to the next level, this is somewhat how you can expect to spend your day.

Hopefully this wasnt too long winded or complicated but iv covered pretty much everything I wanted to today. Also apologies for the late notification, i have been working on this for a few hours so thought I might aswell finish tonight and get it out asap, so I can solely focus on the cards and video analysis tomorrow.

I have also had a request to look into where I find the french horses coming over here from, so let me know if that’s of wider interest.

If theres anything else in particular that anyone would like to see, feel free to PM me anonymously.