FREE Longshot

These are NOT advised bets through my premium service, and are not to be recorded as such.

The plan is to get the odd big priced winner. They will all be 1pt win, which in the long term MAY be profitable. It can also be much longer in between winners, so if you can’t mentally handle potential long losing runs, this is not for you.

11.45 Chepstow No Hubs No Hoobs 33/1

He was a £110,000  purchase at the Derby sale,  before going on to  run in what I think was a very strong bumper on debut. He ran absolutely no sort of race, was detached from the field and beaten over a mile out, which rightly will see him a very big price here. I would be surprised if that was his true limit of ability, as he was very green and didn’t even know what he was doing at the start.  If indeed he is as slow as he looked there, a bumper wouldn’t suit him, and 2M3 on heavy ground around Chepstow with obstacles in front of him, is a completely different challenge, which is somewhat unlikely to see any horse outpaced.  

The form standard in this race from the horses who have already ran over obstacles and bumpers,  is imo of an achievable  standard, however on what he has showed to date, he would have no chance here,  but he should he have learned  plenty from the experience itself,  and may well be better than he showed to date. He undoubtedly needs to show considerable improvement here, and I’m willing to take a chance that he may, as it seemed to bad to be true last time, and as mentioned above, this is a whole different type of race, where he will have more time, and will rely on his jumping more than his raw pace.

previous bets

11.25 Pau HERITIER

Emanuel Clayeux has a decent record first time up over hurdles with young horses, he sends what I believe to be a potentially useful one in to a very competitive race in debut here. There may well be a few very nice ones for the future in here. However at 22/1, I am happy to take a chance on him here, given both the trainers record 1st time out and the potential value in his price.

Wonderwall 3.50 Ascot Saturday.

1 pt win @14/1

He is jocked up, and I am somewhat thinking he may be reasonably smart, I know that they chose the names carefully, and kept that name provisionally for the the 4 purchased.

“It’s been fun watching them up Warren Hill. They look lovely horses, I particularly like the Yeats, which we’ve called Wonderwall. He looks a real athlete.”

So his current odds of 14/1 are somewhat appealing when you consider Richard’s (23 per cent) strike-rate over jumps is impressive.
So imo I think that wonderwall is worth a small win bet here, all be it he may be running in to one of nickys.

GOLDEN JEWEL 2.15 Down Royal
1pt win @ 33/1 PP

He ran a shocker last time on seasonal reappearance, however if you’re willing to forgive that.
I previously had been waiting patiently for Golden Jewel to receive an entry. His run 3 starts ago was a huge step up and showed promise. However his run next time screamed it, he had a horrendous passage and was a ridiculously unlucky loser in a very competitive handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, if he could reproduce that run, he would have valid claims.

3.15 Cheltenham STORY OF FRIENDS 1 pt win @16/1

It’s easy to try and be clever in these races, however nobody knows what is trying to win in a Pertemps qualifier. However, Tobefair has a brilliant course record, he won this last year off 148 and comes in off similar terms if you take off the claim of Jack Tudor. He will be trying for his life here with graded races his targets the rest of the season. I wouldn’t knock anyone backing him, HOWEVER I want to take a chance on one in the same race. Story of Friends has the addition of a 7 pound claimer on board. His will to win is questionable, if you watch back his last race over 3m2. However imo he is definitely well handicapped and has a big pot in him, off his weight here, I see no reason why he wont be trying. I believe the 7 pounds off and the shorter trip will allow him to reverse the form with Ballon Onabudget, which gives him a valid outside win chance at the weights.

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