just on the first 2 days, imo we’ve done decent enough over all, all I’d say is that if I could choose to re run the races with the same horses and bets, I’d obviously choose to do so, because we’ve definitely left some points behind that we should have won. However thats racing, and at the half way point, hopefully we will have our run of the green before the weeks out.
on the latter 2 days, we did very well to get out of the Thursday with some profit after a poor start with small numbers. Friday we hit the big one as I said we would all season with the 1-2-3 in the triumph at huge odds, and we then backed that up further with the big priced winner of stayaway fay, and impervious to top off a very good day and a very solid week. We already went in to friday with fair profit, but made up ground and ended up very close to what I had set out to be our fair return for the hand we went in with, so id be happy with both my own work, and our return.
Day 1
- Supreme. Diverge 20/1 EW. Inthepocket 16/1 EW BOG.
- Arkle. EL Fabiolo 13/2.
- Ultima. Fastorslow 20/1 EW
- C.H. State Man 10/1 EW. Vauban 16/1
- Mares. Maries rock 10/1 EW. Echoes in Rain 12/1 EW. Brandy love 7/1 EW. .
- Boodles. Risk belle 14/1. Punta del este 20/1.
- NHC. Gaillard du mesnil 16/1. Mister Coffey 16/1 EW
Day 2
- Ballymore. Good land 16/1 EW (4P). Gaelic warrior 14/1.
- RSA. Gerri Colombe 25/1. Thunder Rock 50/1 EW (half stakes)
- Coral. Fil D’or 14/1
- QMCC. Energumene 9/2
- X Country. Deise aba 33/1 EW (half stakes) Mortal 33/1 EW (half stakes)
- G.Annual. Dinoblue 10/1. Coeur sublime 14/1
- C.Bumper. Fact to file 12/1 EW. King of kingsfield 20/1
Day 3
- JLT Appreciate it 12/1. Balco coastal 25/1 EW. James Du Berlais 14/1
- Pertemps. NO BET
- Ryanair. NO BET
- Stayers. Teahupoo 11/2. Klassical dream 12/1 EW.
- Plate. Midnight River 12/1
- M. Nov. Halka du Tabert 12/1 EW. Jetara 25/1 EW.
- K. Muir. Angels Dawn 14/1
Day 4.
- Triumph. Lossiemouth 20/1. Blood Destiny 40/1 EW. Gala marceau 20/1 EW. Zenta 66/1 EW.
- County. Pembroke 12/1. Gin Coco 16/1
- Bartlett. Three card brag 9/1. Stay away fay 25/1 EW
- Gold cup. Stattler 16/1 EW.
- Fox hunters. Vaucelet 4/1
- Mares C. Allegorie De vassie 8/1. Impervious 5/1. Jeremys flame 12/1 EW.
- Pipe. Imagine 16/1. Might I 10/1 . Spirit of
if YOU would like to be a member for NEXT season, please give me a shout via PM / Email to reserve a place, I’d be just over half full already with barely a mention, so id be expecting to be extremely close to fully reserved straight after chelt. So just to pre warn, with current members having first refusal.
- Fil dor 151 very fair.
- Fastorslow 150 not absolutely ideal (could claim)
- Angels dawn 131 extremely well in
- Imagine 139 very well in
- Dinoblue 140 extremely well in
- Risk belle 127 well enough in
- Nusret 131 would be very well in (NR)
- Punta del este 126 Well in
- Gin coco 135 very well in
- Pembroke 136 well in
- Midnight river 152 very fair
- Might I 145 well in
I can finally relax now, and i’m very happy with both my work, and in turn our hand. We are either done, Or extremely close to it. If i spot something very worthwhile, or need to replace a NR, then I’ll notify.
Everything has ran now.
coeur sublime ran well and I didn’t want him to win. He should drop to around 150 uk for this run, and we will see what they elect to do.
Fairyhouse 25th Feb. 2.45 spirit of legend. He should go well here, and I see him finishing well within the top 4 imo.
zero excuses here, and I didn’t like straight away when he was held right up and taking a grip off a slow pace. He obviously wont get in to the Martin pipe now. I’d honestly follow him forwards, possibly for a big handicap at fairyhouse over Easter, off the top of my head.
Saturday, 25 February 2023 – 1:35 Zenta (Six day) at Fairyhouse Norman Colfer Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3). As mentioned a month or so a go, I think zenta will run, and can win this and go on to the triumph with a live EW chance. She’s also in the mares nov but would already carry a penalty for her listed win in France, which would be harsh for a 4yo. She stays all day and can pick up the bridle to come late here. There will be zero excuses, she’s the one iv been waiting for, and I expect her to be our 4th runner in the triumph. I do think that she’s of that quality, even though she’s 66/1.
If she did win this, then we’d have the 1-2-3-4 in the betting for that race at absolutely monstrous odds, so fingers crossed, as that’s always been the plan.
I obviously wouldn’t have put her up ew for the triumph without NRNB, if i didnt have a good idea of how she’d go here., so it was a tip in itself really. It’s not possible to have a better triumph hand than us. As mentioned prior, she brings stamina and im looking at the potential of running in to a late place come the Friday. The leader here cost an awful lot of money (€210,000) and was no mug. She obviously missed the last 2 and still won.
On nusret, time will tell if they change his mark, as he’s beaten a 125 horse by 1L receiving 2 pounds. I obviously can’t tell you straight after the race whether they will elect to to for the boodles, but hes NRNB and I don’t mind either way. AINTREE is what they’re looking at ATM.
Wednesday, 22 February 2023 – 2:50 Brandy Love(Six day) at Punchestown Racing TV Quevega Mares Hurdle (Grade 3). This is obviously the wrong way round for her, and she has loads of improvement in her when she goes left handed. Make no mistake though, open company is a big step up.
that was a lifeless run from brandy love there, she didn’t jump left, and the winners a bit of a dog imo at the very top level, so id have zero interest in brandy love for the big step up of the Mares as a win only prospect. As mentioned all along, open company is a different ball game, so no harm done, and I’d be liking our mares hand without her. For me it would be a horrendous call for maries rock to go for the stayers, and I don’t believe it. Its not entirely impossible that I could go back in ew with brandy love if she ran at the right price and place terms. Everything has its price, but certainly not single figures win only, in the current field.
The reason that she was so dissapointing to me, is that she found nothing off the bridle, showed nothing that makes me think she’s now markedly better left handed, and she was beaten by a horse who is well short of top class. I know many see the weight and she’s has ran considerably under par etc.. but has she? as she’s come back off an injury with no open company form at all, and been targetted ready for this. It’s not like she’s beaten honeysuckle previously and then come back and ran flat. She hasn’t beaten anything that’s proven in open company, and she had to improve markedly on what she had done already as a novice. To put it bluntly, she hasn’t, and although she could very arguably come on and over turn the form with the winner, that isn’t good enough either, as the winner got handed an absolute gift of the race being ran perfectly for her last year. She had every opportunity to steal the race and couldn’t do it. We have 2 better ones than the pair of them. Who are both still on an upwards curve.
Saturday, 18 February 2023 – 1:30(Four day) at Haydock Betfred Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle (Go North Grey Bomber Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
He could arguably go well in this and go for the boodles if they wanted to, but Prices are currently worse for that than they’d be on the day in theory for both himself and afadil. I’d also want to know the pairs final marks before considering either there.
He was very impressive at cagnes and looks to be a nice prospect, and a very different type to the bridle merchants that are ridden handy for their life. I won’t fall for it yet, but If I was as wealthy as the owner, he’s the first of his, that I think I’d have taken the chance on myself, So i hope he’s as useful as he looked. There are triumph entrants all over the place in this race, and punta del este would have to win this, IF he ends up going to the Triumph. IF he did win, you’re looking at around 12/1 for the triumph for taking the scalp of Afadil in a handy manner. It would be a fair ask for both him to win this and zenta to go on and win the “winning fair” shortly, but i believe that I saw the opportunity to potentially have a monster of a hand and a good look at a win And the places at favourable prices, should either make the grade.
That’s a few less to worry about in the triumph and if we’re to have 4 in that, then it’s zenta… punta del este ran a stormer of a trial run with the future in mind for the boodles.. and I’d be hoping for a mark in the early to mid 120s. He is capable of coming late.
Irish point has been given the mark check… and has been given 148.. imo he could go for the Coral with a claim taken off him. I can’t see him being ridden like that, then not going for a handicap. But we will see.
If you like dunboyne for the kim muir, you’d be wanting to make a move now.. I’m not a fan myself, with any tax at all, but he would be a major shortner, if he is for you. He is +1
The bartlett is where three card brag goes. I like him a lot, and he has a very decent chance in an open race. stay away fay shows little on it, though is a strong stayer off the bridle. His ptp form has been franked by henrys horse, and he would be open to significant improvement here afyer a poor ride last time. He could plausibly run in to a place late on..
Sunday, 12 February 2023 – 2:10Imagine
IMAGINE looks to be getting his 4th run needed shortly and hopefully he goes onwards to the pipe. Iv always seen inprovent in him for stepping up to the intermediate trip. So I’d be hopeful that they follow that route. He is on a very handy UK mark atm.
he ran perfect here imo and was on 135 uk, so he will be fine going up a few.. I still have the exact same opinion of improvement to come over 2 and a half. I’ll be strongly hoping that it is the Martin Pipe. I like him.
Sunday, 12 February 2023 – 4:40 The Gunner Yeats (Six day) at Navan William Hill Play Responsibly (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
The gunner yeats is in here, and it will be interesting to see how he goes when he has his first run since a real nice performance in his ptp. That hasn’t worked out great. However, he caught the eye all throughout, looked to win despite the trip, and looked open to any amount of improvement dropping back. It’s the time of year, where you have to win to be in, and the opposition looks like a solid test. He’s not the main danger, but ballystone would give a line on it’s for me.
There are no excuses here for the gunner yeats, and he obviously won’t go to chelt. They were trying and had the head gear on. This was a strong race, and the winner is a real nice horse. I would be surprised if he isn’t gordons best bumper horse. Obviously, he’s unfortunately ineligible for the Champion Bumper. He has come forward with each run.
on Icare Allen, he was dropped right out, and the rider was animated from very early on. He always travels very sweet on the bridle, so I wouldn’t believe that run for a second. It will be interesting to see what his mark drops to, and if he does run in the county and suddenly is capable of being ridden more prominent and travelling through the race. Obviously, outside of that, something could come to light, and he could obviously miss the race, but it looked debatable to me.
Saturday, 11 February 2023 – 2:45(Overnight) at Uttoxeter deliveringyournetzero.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
MISTER COFFEY has derek O’connor jocked up, and that tells you absolutely everything you need to know, in terms of it won’t be the Ultima. In the chance that he managed to blow his mark it would be the National Hunt Chase, however you’d have thought that he’d be going to the Kim muir and with a big chance at that. Quotes say otherwise though and he’s deffinately better than 140.
that was a very solid run, he will likely go up 4 for that, and he’d have both options, but you’d think that they would likely elect to go for the NH Chase. He has rock solid EW claims there. There’s a lot of Nr’s and over rated horses in behind gaillard that haven’t put up a performance of that quality. He also has the experience to ride him in to his fences, and he’s a very solid jumper. There’s a whole load to like about that. He’s the one I’d be scared of in that race.. so id be delighted to spot that when I did.
Nusret has been given 130 which is fine. As mentioned tekao will be slapped very simularly so he’s no gaelic warrior or anything like that.
Next up will be the DRF Racecards…. any declarations of interest will be in there when completed. Though it will be very self evident, as its literally our chelt hand in near every race.
Saturday, 04 February 2023 – 3:23Imagine
He has been give a very lenient looking uk mark of 135. With 1 more run needed
Saturday, 04 February 2023 – 2:55Favori De Champdou(Five day) at Sandown. (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) As mentioned, I have no idea if he runs here, if he does and gets qualified without bolting up, then he’s straight fav for the pertemps imo. Whether david pipe is wanting to see remastered’s mark confirmed without a run, or hes running as a prep for a big chase… we will find out upon decs. There are still 3 Qualifiers for me to find something else.
both have confirmed very nice marks, favori would need to run, and probably won’t, but we will see. It would be fairly encouraging that gordons sending a lorry over.
Remastered is jocked up, so it’s long odds on that he will not to go to the pertemps..
they’ll obviously have to check remastered’s wind again, He wouldn’t be in the pertemps anyway as soon as he was jocked up here.. but if youve backed him for any chase down the line… that could be him done for the season….
Saturday, 04 February 2023 – 2:20 Thunder Rock
it’s the race that I said it should be, with an added addition of geri colombe in the entries, who wouldn’t run unless the hoses are down iv just been told. For me, as mentioned even before the entries, I like thunder rock as an ew prospect for the RSA, and I like and respect Balco Coastal in his claims of attempting to go towards the JLT… it should be a good one and monmiral is the one they have to go and beat, as mentioned prior.
Please note that, Both should improve off the back of this, Thunder rock for a step up in trip, and balco coastal for when he switches to a left handed track which he’s crying out for. You could definitely mark up either of them for winning or finishing a close enough 2nd or 3rd.
they’ve had the hose pipes out… the whole 2nd circuit is properly soft atm..and it’s on the soft side of gd-soft elsewhere… it looks like its properly on, and a very exciting race. I have purposely targetted this, and we’ve our RSA hand, and one who’d be very exciting for the JLT if he came and did very well here. We are well prepared, can sit back and it will sort itself out.
perfect again and likewise to the drf races in that thread earlier… im obviously very happy with all 3. Gerri and thunder rock would look common sense RSA to me.. I wouldn’t like to second guess hendo, and obviously I’m very happy with both NRNB bets with balco coastal. as mentioned he will improve for going left handed, and he’s bang in the mix for all those races. This was a very good race.
See the members horses to follow…
Just In case anyone thought I had lost the plot. I have targetted the triumph NRNB, with very sound reasoning imo and we’re deffo not having 5 runners in the triumph, with 2 random outsiders, if anyone was worried about anything like that. skeltons may go to the Adonis, I thought rather than wait, and potentially let one go from 40/1 to 7/1, I’ll take the big odds and let him cut themselves if he won the adonis. Willie’s mare has lost her status and therefore should likely be seen in the “winning fair” Grade 3.
29Jan23 Naa1m. 7f. S 5y+ H (28K)(Grd 3)Echoes In Rain 150. She should likely win this, and I’d be hoping that she will go to the mares hurdle with a fine EW chance.
as mentioned, she has a big, big ew chance in the mares, assuming she goes there, and no offence to Patrick, but I hope he’s not riding because he made an absolute meal of it last year where im absolutely adamant that she’d have been a good 2nd, and shes improved on the flat since.
29Jan23 Naa2m. 3f. S 5y+ MdnHdl (15K) Present Soldier. I assume that he runs here of his 2 entries. The nice guy made his hurdles debut here and won the bartlett. In summary he could be a useful staying novice, please refer to the members horses to follow. IF he wins this he may go and take on the fav in the race that shantreuse won last season. His ptp form is strong and this is a good race, its ideal to know exactly where you are straight away.
The late appearance, jockey bookings, and the on the day market, look to all tell the tale before he’s even ran here, but we will see.
there’s not much to be said other than to appear this late and go off at those odds, he’s obviously had an issue, and you’d feel bad for connections at 300k and hopefully he will win them a 3m handicap after a couple more runs.
28Jan23 Fai. 2m. 2f. S 4y+ H (29K)(Grd 3)Halka Du Tabert. She runs here, I think she is potentially very useful.. a close 2nd would be better than narrowly winning, due to the penalty system, but you wouldn’t complain if she bolted up as she’d be a short priced fav.. I took her hurdles debut very seriously, and id be particularly hopeful of a bold showing.
Now on my own assumption, I have always assumed that liberty dance goes to the handicap hurdle at the DRF, so were in with what looks to be willies no1, and arguably no2 atleast on form, bar improvements. The only one I see missing in the entries is nikini, so whether that’s ominous I don’t know.. jetara is a strong stayer at the trip and ran very well against some nice geldings, so you’d have to respect her for sure, and goodie 2 shoes is either messing around all over the place to get runs for her handicap mark, or recieving bold entries possibly because she goes better at home than her finishing result quite showed on her promising debut.
I was happy enough with that.. I didn’t want the penalty here by winning this, and despite Davy making the running, he didn’t go an even gallop and it turned in to a bit of a sprint. He didn’t ride to halka du taberts assets, and although this was a longer trip, chelt is a very stiff 2 miles where the race is ridden for stamina. I still like her chances. I also liked the run of the 2nd horse and this pair EW NRNB is the final hand that I have decided on should they both run. Both have the stamina and should be involved.
Saturday, 28 January 2023 – 2:40Stay Away Fay(Four day) at Doncaster Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) he runs here, he’d have to win this to even think about going to chelt, and I think its a tough enough ask to look impressive, however if he comes forward and wins this well, then you’d have to take note. In all reality, It’s basically a free version of to win today and at chelt.
I better add that I obviously have nothing against him, I just don’t want to hype him up, as he’s only ran in a stamina demanding race against an out and out 2 miler, and a few trees, with all respect to the races they’ve done well enough in since. He quickened up smartly to the final fence in his ptp, and he drew clear on the home run while looking all stamina to be still be lengthening as he hit the line, so it was no suprise that he found strongly off the bridle over the intermediate trip against a fairly sorry bunch. He will absolutely improve for the step up to 3 miles, he looks a bartlett type all over, but he didn’t look flashy and hes facing better opposition where your’e not going to find out what he has until he runs here. What the fairly interesting thing is, is that he travelled better visually to the last in his ptp, however that’s hard to judge as you don’t know what he beat there, and in contrast, he was over a shorter trip last time, with the lad he was against being a flashy 2 miler that travels on the bridle as good as anything.. so as a real staying type it would make you look shorter of tactical pace on the bridle visually, than perhaps you are. So tbf it will be very interesting here to see how he travels in to the race, against genuine stayers, and not a 2miler that was fishing for a betfair hurdle mark, before he went wrong.
He is a really nice horse, and should have won this.. he was very tough, very resolute, and the rider went to go for the brave man’s route and it didn’t pay off. I worried about how tough he was beforehand, and how he’d travel in to the race, but he just showed that he’s very tough off the bridle to force himself in to a race while still being green early. so if he went there I’d have no issues, as he was a huge eye catcher here. Will Paul send him.. i cant see it, but time will tell, and it would be a bit of a tip in itself if he did. I’ll go for a solid one later that iv always been going to put up, if I see nothing inbetween.
Saturday, 28 January 2023 – 12:40 Roi Mage(Five day) at Cheltenham Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase. He’ll have a fair burden here for his first attempt at the track, but there would be no excuses and he’d want to be making his presence felt here, as he did at compiegne in November when he finished a close up 3rd in the Listed cross country chase that Prengarde won last season. He was held right up at the back and left with room to have a sight at his obstacles. He had no issue with any of them, and he caught the eye all throughout the race, he made his way through the pack and turned in having got to the lead, where he was only narrowly bettered by a coupe of particularly useful ones late on. Those all around him were all unexposed winners with plenty of runs over the discipline, and to top that off, he was giving away weight to them, so he’s done well there.
I obviously can’t be putting him up, but if you had some spare cash, and did want to back one with unibet outright, then i wouldn’t put anyone off the fav for chelt at 7/4. I’d be surprised if he went off odds against atm, as its unlikely something like Saint godefroy turned up. He’d certainly be a staple of any win multiples.
Galvin is a likely runner, however id rather play something else late for a place at a big price if pushed for a selection at all. It’s as simple as delta work is the best bet. The only horse at all that I could see beating delta work would be Saint godefroy who would be an extremely unlikely runner.
We’ve a massive hand for the likes of the mares hurdle, chase and Triumph, but in terms of Novices, I’m happy to go in to the Arkle with Just el fab. we’re very likely imo to have Atleast 1 short priced fav in the NH Chase, And again we’ve a solid chance in the JLT. While we’ve atleast a live chance for the RSA depending on the result of the scilly Isles. The ballymore will sort itself out over the next few weeks, and we will have atleast a chance in that, while the bartlett I will properly sort out prior to the tapes going up.
22Jan23 Thu 1m. 7f. S 4y+ MdnHdl (20K)Belle The Lioness. She has to bolt up in this, and I’ll be very dissapointed if she dosen’t win, but she has to do it handily. Our no1 for the mares nov is obviously halka du tabert, but I wouldn’t mind having a second runner, whether that’s Belle the lioness we will find out very quickly here. I like the horse that beat her last time, so it’s just a matter of whether she can come forward to her level, as I wasn’t happy with the ride on BTL. She should have been closer turning in, but it was her own fault really that she got stuck in a pocket and had to switch left and go round them. She hit the last, then came home strongly once in the clear. I’d say if she didn’t get closed out, and she made a better jump at the last, then there wouldn’t have been more than a length in it, and ridden closer, it would have been tighter than that. As it was, she’d have been very narrowly beaten by a nice horse that got gifted first run from the front end. I didn’t want to say so at the time, as i thought it would have been rude, however as he’s riding again, it inmediately entered my mind post race that the way the others were ridden, you could deffinately argue that they knew it was davys “retirement” ride, and that would be my slight reservation of the clearly useful winner.
She should be a cut above these despite the useless RPR ratings saying otherwise when you take the claim of mollys glory in to consideration. If she dosen’t beat these by 5L + Going away then I’ll be surprised and not interested.. the stiff finish of the mares nov would suit her strongly, and its plain to see that the test of stamina in a big field with pace on, and her jumping is where the expected improvement needs to come from. I ambitiously see her as a simular type to last years 2nd. My only reservation is wondering if it’s just coincidence that every entry and run to date has been right handed, however her head carriage does hang left when switched under pressure. It’s handy that she should win this, so we can finally see some trainer quotes.
she has the engine, she should have won this by 10+ but the hurdles are there to be jumped. Her jumping has not improved and just isn’t up to scratch. I can’t see her coming there to win jumping like that, and place money wouldn’t be on my mind atm. I’ll just add that if she went a crazy price on the day with more places, I wouldn’t put anyone off her coming late to steal a place, but again, she’d have to have a cleaner round.
22Jan23 Thu2m. 4f. S 5y+ NovCh (50K)(Grd 2)Allegorie De Vassy. I expect her to run and expect her to win, I thought she’d meet impervious here originally, but that has worked out very well. We won’t find anything out here at all, other than she’s alive and can jump a fence. The only advantage is race fitness.
she went a good clip here tbf so would have actually learned a bit from that in terms of she was jumping them at genuine race pace, with no slowing in to them and she dosen’t hesitate. We have a good combination of pace and stamina between our 2 mares chasers, and who is the better of the pair, luckily it doesn’t make any difference. We obviously have a huge hand and I wouldn’t see much of an issue with jumping a shade right, as Joseph’s horse should be bang on the pace, so you just slot on her inside as colreevy did to Elimay.
Gaelic Warrior 11-9134 . We will obviously be hoping that gaelic warrior climbs in to the space left by grangeclare west in the ballymore market, and he may.. that race has always been seen by connections as his long term target, before receiving a mark thats far too lenient that has deffinately caught their attention. That mark only stands in ireland atm and the Ballymore should look wide open so they’ve loads of time to think about what they want to do and with runs, himself and the look of the race will make the decision for them. Cash back beat classic Getaway in this last season and blue sari has a simular profile, so he’s no mug either.
I have got to be happy with that and mainly the fact that he has to get majorly slapped for that with blue sari in 2nd there and the right horse in 3rd. I know he has the stamina from France, I’m not sure how we got him beaten in the boodles, but with what he’s beaten there, I’d be very much hoping he goes to the bally, and assuming so, he’d be going there with a fair chance alright. anything else of note, is that this was right handed and he did shift right when asked in to one. So the longer distance of the ballymore and a more relaxed pace should help. With a UK mark of 149 and rising, it has to be graded now.
please note that there could plausibly be a bet in the fox hunters today… I’ll update later if so, with no notice.
A 3L win wouldn’t be good enough for me at 10/1 for Chris’s dream. I’m Suprised he’s cut for that, I’d have pushed him out, but there you go
Im targetting the DRF at the moment, and iv given us a chance in the 2m6 novice, and a solid chance in the champion hurdle trial, as well as having the spring juvenile by the bollocks. We could be single handed in the Irish arkle with El Fab and I’d take my chances there as is. There’s also a wild one I’m planning on taking an EW chance on for the RSA going in to the scilly Isles. So in summary, I’m well on top of it all, while trying to be as selective as possible.
we’re miles out, but this is the sort of hand i think we have atm… that I will keep updating. I’ll try to have an EW bet in the Ryanair and QMCC but make no mistake, I have always thought that the favs win. Days 1 and 4 are pretty close to done, touch wood, Bar the handicaps and the bartlett We’re looking at around 11-12 runners Day 1. 11-12 Day 2. 13-14 day 3. 15 Day 4. So somewhere around 50-52 Total, which would be as big a hand as iv ever selectively gone in with.
Day 1
- Supreme. Diverge 20/1 EW. Inthepocket 16/1 EW BOG
- Arkle. EL Fabiolo 13/2.
- Ultima. Fastorslow 20/1 EW
- C.H. State Man 10/1 EW. Vauban 16/1
- Mares. Echoes in Rain 12/1 EW. Maries Rock 10/1 EW. Brandy love 7/1 EW
- Boodles. Risk belle 14/1 NRNB. Punta del este 20/1 NRNB
- NHC. Gaillard du mesnil 16/1. Mister Coffey 16/1 EW.
Day 2
- Ballymore. Good land 16/1 EW (4P). Gaelic warrior 14/1.
- RSA. Thunder Rock 50/1 EW. Gerri Colombe 25/1
- Coral. Fil D’or 14/1 NRNB
- QMCC. Energumene 9/2 NRNB.
- X Country. Deise aba 33/1 EW (half stakes) Mortal 33/1 EW (half stakes)
- G.Annual. coeur sublime 14/1 NRNB. Dinoblue 10/1 NRNB
- C.Bumper. Fact to file 12/1 EW. King of kingsfield 20/1
Day 3
- JLT. Appreciate it 12/1. Balco coastal 25/1 EW. James Du Berlais 14/1
- Pertemps. NO BET
- Ryanair. NO BET
- Stayers. Teahupoo 11/2. Klassical dream 12/1 EW.
- Plate. Fastorslow 33/1. Midnight River 12/1.
- M. Nov. Halka du Tabert 12/1 EW. Jetara 25/1 EW.
- K. Muir. Angels Dawn 14/1 NRNB.
Day 4
- Triumph. Lossiemouth 20/1. Blood Destiny 40/1 EW. Gala marceau 20/1 EW. Zenta 66/1 EW.
- County. Pembroke 12/1. Gin Coco 16/1 NRNB.
- Bartlett. Three card brag 9/1. Stay away fay 25/1 EW NRNB.
- Gold cup. Stattler 16/1 EW.
- Fox hunters. Vaucelet 4/1
- Mares C. Allegorie De vassie 8/1. Impervious 5/1. Jeremys flame 12/1 EW.
- Pipe. Imagine 16/1 NRNB. Might I 10/1 NRNB.
15Jan23 Pun2m. 3f. S 5y+ NovCh (35K)(Grd 3)Impervious. She runs here according to the trainer, I don’t particularly like it, but it is what it is, and she’s a nice mare for the mares chase. I suppose you could take in the positive way that she avoids allegorie before chelt. GLENGOULY I’m not sure why he’s not in the JLT market at fancy prices. He’ll make a better chaser than hurdler for sure, and I’d give him an EW chance in that.. iv been checking in for weeks to see if hes in the betting for it. Ha D’or is in the same position while priced up. If just 1 of the 2 is declared, I may possibly take an EW chance or NRNB depending on prices, I’ll have a think. The goffer and minella Crooner have been right up there on the Kim muir list for some time. I’m not sure who added them to that market yet.. but it’s very frustrating that they requested NRNB first. That’s made my decision on the Kim muir a very quick one, and its to go against him.. and put something up shortly.
iv watched them both back a few times, and I had a better impression of ha D’or live, than i did watching it back. Glengouly will be down the betting for this, and the 2nd choice here on jockey bookings, and he may finish 2nd of the pair, though I think he’s a better jumper, and I was happy with what he found off the bridle last time. This looks very tough, but I think he’s potentially capable of coming forward, and you wouldn’t see him going to the JLT or RSA unless he did come forward to go particularly well here. I wouldn’t put anyone off EW NRNB, however I’m backed up with 3 selections atm.. that I’m trying to spread out.
That was obviously very good by impervious, and we haven’t been messing around with selections. We’ve a fine hand for both open Mares races as expected, and its very important for me to have solid chances to finish on, on the Friday. I have assured that, and bar injuries, it will only strengthen. Those immediately in behind or fallen in this race,I can afford to see another run.
15Jan23 Pun2m. S 5y+ H (36K)(Grd 2)Impaire Et Passe. He was always going for this then hopefully on to the supreme . Obviously there was a mess up with the name when I was backing him, and meant to be putting him up at the same time Ew at 66s. Iv made everyone well aware about him for months.
he obviously won well and while he has never been expected to beat Facile vega, he’ll obviously have his chance, assuming willie dosen’t decide to switch him last min, you never know. If I see something else for the supreme, ill obviously put it up down the line.
14Jan23 Fai2m. S 4y H Blood Destiny. Iv made no mistake in saying I like him, and tbh I’d rate him bang up there with Lossiemouth, so he’s no 2nd string or anything like that, so I’ll be dissapointed if he’s beaten. What I would say though is that common practice and nusret already have strong form and are open to considerable improvement. Common practice is the type of horse off the flat where if he took a leap forward, then something with that profile could be our final ew bet for the triumph. In the case of Nusret he may be better going right handed, so Both were on the shortlist for the boodles, but that would now just be common practice, so if he is declared then I’ll have a think beforehand rather than after. Common practice is 33s NRNB EW for the triumph.. you’d pretty confidently say that he wouldn’t run without near beating blood destiny here, so I wouldn’t particularly put any one off that, and it crossed my mind, but Again im very positive on blood destiny. This will be a real test and very revealing, assuming the other pair are running to merit. Obviously iv mentioned jazzy matty for the boodles a year ago when called Jamestown he’s a genuine boodles type but no world beater in terms of winning this.
I’ll just note that I thought with common practice It would have been very tight with zarak the brave if he wasn’t closed out by Lossiemouth coming across him then hitting the last. Id say he’d maybe have finished half a length behind him and zarak is unlikely to run at chelt. Now i have considered C.P with cash-out for the boodles, the only issue is JP having so many options for that race, and whether he was flattered by there not being a great deal of pace on. In terms of Lossiemouth in that race, she was held on to out wide, and was made more use of earlier next time, and ridden near enough to the manner in which I expected on debut. So id say she’s probably ran a good 5L + better again there next time, for more suitable tactics. So that’s the sort of line you’d be looking at with blood destiny in terms of his triumph win chances.
I’d say we have the legit 1-2-3 in the betting atm, and I’m on the look out for a final EW bet, but it can wait, as it has to be right and what I feel is the danger to us. Its a good spot to be in, that I’m not sure what the danger is to all 3, nevermind just the fav, but im sure a challenger will come from somewhere. I can’t see it being gust of wind though, as he got the run of the race out front at Auteuil and the 2nd is the better horse, they were just well aware that it was his stablemate infront so they were content in 2nd to preserve his Novice status to sell. God knows why the other mullins horse Enola is that short either, as I deffinately cant see it being her. I assume it’s just those who missed the good ones early, taking a blind and desperate chance on any of willies 4yo’s, as they didn’t work it out correctly early on.
he was very good and it’s what I expected. I obviously wasn’t messing around when I said I rated him bang up there with Lossiemouth, and as mentioned he’s no 2nd or 3rd string. Our hand is no accident as per the Members horses to follow before the season had started, and iv stacked the triumph, with the intention of a win AND a place.
GC west has come back post race abnormal, which isnt a great suprise as I was disappointed with his finish, and i wouldn’t believe that he ran his true race. Now I usually wouldn’t like writing this to get any ones hopes up after a poor run, but id feel the same way about him that I did about samcro when he was beaten by faugheen in his novice chase at christmas in poor ground. He went on to win the JLT come the spring on his next start and I honestly don’t think that grangeclare west ran his race here. I don’t like that he wasn’t asked for his effort earlier, but he was ridden with confidence in the expectation of an immediate response, and the issue is he didn’t find it. It will be interesting to see if he can come back sound and show that to be entirely wrong. If it’s as simple as him scoping dirty after coming back coughing, then with what I thought he was going to do, compared to his finishing effort, you’d think there’s got to be some sort of chance that he can come back from that.
08Jan23 Naa2m. 4f. S 5y+ H (100K)(Grd 1)Grangeclare West 11-10. I’m not 100% sure if gaelic warrior will take on grangeclare west here, or wait for Clonmel or the Moscow flyer. The same could be said for irish point. Whether we have 1 or 3 in here, you won’t here any excuses from me. I have planned to win this, and anything else would be a dissapointment to me.
heard a lot of rumours about gaelic and while im just about to check, I wouldn’t be worried at all.. I’d always expected to go in single handed here in to the lawlors with grangeclare of willies as above, and Grangeclare has always been my ballymore no1 off the back of his hurdles debut that i expect to win this and go to that race.. Also not sure why people are over excited by an Irish mark right now of gaelic warrior. He was only entered up for clonmel yesterday, and he’s about to have 2 more runs before chelt. He would get royally slapped on top of what ever mark he will have regardless and perhaps they will make use of his mark at the DRF any way beforehand. He may well also get a betfair hurdle entry so you’d see his uk mark. Irish point we have plenty of options with as mentioned all along, and it will be interesting to see how they play it here, he’s far away from being a mug, he’s smart and open to improvement from an already strong level. I have no doubt that he’s very capable in this grade or at handicap level. Three card brag has scoped poorly and imo it could be a gift in disguise missing this race…
firstly im delighted that Imagine missed this for a 2m engagement to leave his improvement for the step up to be unexposed. Secondly, you’d have to be very happy with irish point in 2nd place there the winner got the run of the race in very testing conditions and I wouldn’t take that literal. Irish point is coming on very nicely and again hes the one to take out of the race. The winner was the only one I was worried about and in particular while making all. We’ve a proper one with irish point and he’s going to be very dangerous wherever he goes. Grangeclare west dissapointed me in term of I expected him to win. I wouldn’t rule him out entirely as he was held on to longer than anything and the winner had already flown. I’d like to see more use made of him in better conditions. I wouldnt take today to hold up on another day in different conditions. All be it I respect the winner and always have. Finally again, irish point is the one to take out of the race, and to be on the positive side, he’s going to be a very strong selection.
Sunday, 08 January 2023 – 12:50Telmesomethinggirl(Six day) at Naas Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Chase. I don’t expect her to go and win this on the bridle. But I do expect her to win this assertively, while finishing strongly to lead and win going away.
I thought she was going to win any way going in to the last as I know what she finds. Now I’ll have to watch this back a couple of times though I thought straight away that she lost her footing In poor conditions before the fence early on then lost her confidence for a few fences there after. I wouldn’t be happy with that jumping performance but I would be happy that she showed the resolve that I expected in the finish. She will get a test now in different conditions then that will see whether she gets the green light for the mares chase at chelt or not. I will reserve judgement until then as as soon as I saw that going in to the fence, then I thought I was aware quickly what happened. i wouldn’t be overly negative on the run, because I know she won’t be going straight to chelt, so if she puts that right, she has the desire and engine to find late on and be in the mix. If she dosent put that right, then she won’t be running.
08Jan23 Naa. 2m. S 5y+ NovCh (20K) Appreciate It. Glengouly is a decent horse going under the radar, but id be hoping appreciate it may get a second run here. Whether he joins el fabiolo in the arkle or he goes for the JLT, I wouldn’t be certain, but he’s going to have a solid chance either way.
It was basically public schooling and a nice round, Paul let him close in to one, he was clever to correct himself and pop it. That’s all you can take from it really, that he’s a very capable chaser. Good round and job done. He lost his footing slightly after jumping one too, so there could be some strange results today on a whole, so I wouldn’t be completely getting stuck In to anything.
Saturday, 07 January 2023 – 12:05 Bo Zenith(Five day) at Sandown Unibet Extra Places Every Day Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race). I don’t know how I feel about this, as you’ll learn absolutely nothing here. Id have been hoping that bo zenith would have made his debut in atleast a half decent race. This is piss poor, and you’d be mightily dissapointed if he didn’t win this. Do I want to take an ew chance on him going in to this in the search of the triumph 1-2-3, ill have to have a decent think about it, as that would be the last bet in the race, so I’ll have to try and work out if he’d still run, if he dissapointed down the line. You’d worry about him getting the test needed beforehand to know where you are off the bridle, so I’d want him to go to trials day on the 28th, or atleast the adonis, but would he back up quickly for the former, and what would he meet in the adonis. That is the question. Even if you had access to the trainer, it would be no use, As like hendo, he’d be a very optimistic man, and thinks they will all be stars. In terms of NRNB, i wouldn’t want him beaten pre triumph and still running in it.. but id also be pissed if he went and bolted up in this and another micky mouse race, then went straight there, so i’d have no clue what his chances are. Atm I’m talking myself out of it, as I’m far from trusting him to hold that form and build upon it. He looked physically “extremely” well ready to me and was tactically given the absolute run of the race. It was an impressive win, for sure, but it still needs to be built upon. In writing this, i have basically answered my own question. Im not here to shout boom when a horse wins a nothing race and halves in price for chelt. I want to know what i have, and I want them tested. I 100% will leave him. I’d expect a good few of you may have fancy prices on him with cash-out anyway, as per his various mentions for months now.
my hunch was right and I’ll have to be careful what I say, but you’re a brave man to buy one of cottin after his debut ridden in prime position, “conditioned” to the gills, where you could see 3 ribs on him in the parade ring, to be ready to run for his life and a quick sale. Blood destiny was bulky and held up to preserve his status, dont worry about that form with him. Stating the obvious, don’t take that literal with the winner here either.. as cottins done a job.
I will try and keep this thread pretty quiet in terms of bets if I possibly can, to allow any one to catch up on the NRNB selections, if anyone needs to. Iv already planned out the lawlors of Naas pre christmas and that’s the next big key race. I’d expect us to be winning that with what we already have.
I’ll see what else is entered up on Monday and Tuesday, I’m hoping it’s a quiet enough one, but you never know.
NRNB
Halka du tabert will get further but she’s not slow at all. she’s a solid cruising speed and a strong stayer at the trip. As soon I saw her run, I wanted to put her up immediately, but I thought the right thing to do would be to make room and I knew NRNB was coming today. She goes for the acid test in the solerina mares race and I’d expect her to go well. My thoughts would be that if she dosent then you’d side step chelt and go to Fairyhouse, however the main thing I’ll be thinking is how impressive I thought she was on debut, so she’s potentially pretty smart, with a big EW chance.
for the Grand annual iv been watching Coeur sublime and he travels very nicely and tactically he’d be a very easy ride in a big field due to his cruising speed. I thought his run last time was more than fine and I thought he wasn’t knocked about. He would have won but for a fall at the last on his prior start imo and he came there very well. He’s gone the route not to get slapped on top of his irish mark, and if they went that way off the early 150s, he’ll be handy and would go very well imo.
icare allen for the county. I tried to be clever early on, and i added him in to the Any race market, though 12/1 was the dissapointing outcome. He travelled supremely well through his handicap, and imo there was no interest in asking him the question while he still had a chance to win. I’d say he’s still on a very handy mark. He works like a much better horse, and I wouldn’t be suprised if he goes that way, and goes off near fav. however the outright any race price wasn’t appealing when he could go on and blow his mark by winning something like the betfair hurdle beforehand. The NRNB price is very appealing to me.
Three card brag has a lovely profile for the Martin Pipe assuming he just sneaks in. The owners would like to go for the bartlett and he may well do so, but perhaps they could have there arm twisted depending on what happens here on in and with his mark. Again, he’d have a big chance. IMAGINE has the same form line, is crying out for 2 and a half miles, and imo he’s a near nailed on Martin Pipe horse id have thought. I’d see no issue with him going here, and I’d like his chances. He’s been on that list for some time since his hurdles debut, and from what iv seen, hes only cemented my opinion. This lads a little more flashy and can be riden handy just behind the leaders, the aforementioned lad finds plenty.
echoes in rain, we’ve already a big hand for the Mares imo.. but I can’t get her ride last year out of my head and she’s improved significantly on the flat since.
Echoes in rain is one that I feel got away last season.. I thought she recieved an absolutely terrible ride by Patrick in the mares hurdle and he could probably argue that she got hampered, however I wouldn’t be having that, and I felt she was poorly positioned at the time, and should have been asked to make progress before that happened. The winner was good value for the win and won fair and square, but I personally feel that Echoes in rain should have been positioned a shade closer and been asked a shade earlier. I see her finishing 2nd in that case while open to further improvement as we’ve seen on the flat. She fell last time, the quality of that race was far higher than this will be, and I think she would have finished a close 4th at worst behind 3 proper grade 1 horses in open company. That’s very good form compared to the likes of queensbrook and she would have a rock solid ew chance imo. Epatante is the one I’m trying to surround and beat, if Echoes in rain runs here, then we should be 3 handed in taking her on. I wouldn’t be scared of any of the rest at all, as i dont feel honeysuckle will run. I feel maries rock has every chance of beating epatante again already, and Maries rock is potentially the real one to beat.
I’m fully expecting GDM to run in the NHC, and gerri colombe has to be very likely to go for the RSA (I like him an awful lot for that).
William hill go NRNB tomorrow and I’ll be firing out a few bets if the right opportunities arise or they price up the handicaps.
If anyone didn’t have the bank, you’ll be playing catch up a little bit. Please feel free to join in with the daily bets next season as an ultimate member, while we attempt to build one, which we have done successfully every year to date.
In other news, I havent the slightest clue why everybody seems to be getting over excited about Gary moores horse that beat jet powered.. he recieved a ton of weight while allowed to dictate in bottomless ground. The 2nd to be very kind, lacks ability and desire, so single figures for the triumph now, will look awful come March on the winner. He only seems to be a news story because jet powered was rated as a strong supreme 2nd fav for what ever reason. Should he have beaten the 2nd like that around Exeter, nobody would blink an eye lid and he’d be 40s for the triumph, imo where he should be. He travelled well in his bumper in france, and as he did there, he will look good in any race at half way, but he will be in big trouble coming home against real opposition, I personally couldn’t see him beating any of our 3.
Tomorrow – 2:15 Stattler(Overnight) at Tramore Savills New Year’s Day Chase (Grade 3). I think he was a top class novice chaser and he will end up finding improvement to have a very solid EW chance in the Gold Cup. I’d be dissapointed If his season doesn’t start very brightly here.
I thought that was an absolutely exceptional run here from stattler coming out of novice company. Id be extremely happy with that run and his round, he will have learned an awful lot from that, he was clever when he git in close, and he was brilliant when ridden in to the last. again I’d be very happy.
Tomorrow – 2:30Marie’s Rock Cheltenham careers@dornangroup.com Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race). She’s a really nice horse in a really tough looking race with some nice progressive geldings in here. While the older horses like brewinupastorm and Dashel dasher are far from mugs and all have runs on the board. I wouldn’t be certain in the slightest that epatante would have won this. While love envoi, shewearsitwell and Queens Brook would all have next to no chance in this company, so should maries rock somehow manage to pull it out of the fire late on, then she’d be the mares Hurdle fav in my book.
absolutely exceptional and she should be a short priced fav for the mares..im yet to sleep all night in working on our bets..and making a plan for today, so that is another that makes it well worth it. She has a huge chance and a favourites one Imo.
01Jan23 Fai2m. 5f. S 5y+ S (14K)James du Berlais. I’m expecting him to run and win here and be a big player in the JLT or RSA. He’s cemented in our bets, and you should see why shortly. He should only supplement our already good looking hand for the Graded races.
You’d have to be happy with that. As mentioned iv always seen speed in him. Imo that’s a JLT horse, and That was a very solid performance and exactly what I expected on what he’d done in france. he’s a very welcome addition to our hand and the ideal horse to fit in to where ever they see his best chance. I won’t try and do their job for them.
Sunday, 01 January 2023 – 12:50 Indiana Dream
If he went and won going away here, which is a big IF, he won’t be suspended during the race, as they won’t have a clue about him, and 20/1 any race with hills, would be personal call that iv had planned out for some time, so don’t wait for me. I would have put him up immediately.
Its probably also worth noting that they won’t all live up to their reputation at home, and he could be a case of the old cliche of what ever he does over hurdles is a bonus, so please don’t back him beforehand, as you’d want to watch him first. No one would be wise enough to suspend him during his run, so when he runs.. don’t wait for me.. IF he managed to win, and win well.
declared
the any race market has been taken down… I’ll update here if there’s anything I can do, but unfortunately .he’s in no markets bar 33/1 at PP.. he obviously may not win this anyway as he’s a big unit that will improve with time, but you’d want to be hovering over the bally and bartlett with PP on the off chance. .
bally / bartlett. Prob the latter. Iv personally taken 33s both, and will wait before deciding whether to cash the former.
as mentioned multiple times with him, he’s a real nice horse and he’s going to make a serious chaser down the line. He looks a bartlett horse to me at face value, but it’s testing ground and hard to tell what he will do over the intermediate trip with more experience and better conditions, in a better race.
01Jan23 Tra2m. S 5y+ MdnHdl (10K) Quais De Paris. I’ll keep an eye on his ballot, hopefully he will get in as el fabiolo did last season after being balloted out of the same Christmas race. Everyone knows what I expect, and he may well be, and probably is, our supreme horse. while imo he should be good enough that we are happy to be on any race just incase he went else where as state man did. He should only supplement our already good looking hand for the Graded races.
he’s off the mark in desperate ground while ridden very wide. We have plenty of options with him, and where he ends up, time will tell.. in summary I’d be very happy being on any race, but wouldn’t be overly happy if I had multiple graded race bets on him with outright antepost. He Needs 2 more runs to get his mark.
declared
29Dec22 Leo2m. S 4y+ NHF (20K)King Of Kingsfield 12-0 Mr H C Swan(7). At face value on jockey bookings he could be beaten here, and Caldwell potter was expected to win the Goffs landrover bumper back at punchestown. Recieving 7 pounds here there will be absolutely no excuses. I liked the way he travelled through his race last time, but I wasn’t happy with what he found. This is a solid race and we will find out exactly where we are here. I’d rather know now, and move on, however he’s not been beaten here yet, or even ran, so there’s the off chance that they could back one of the 2 heavily then pull out the other (himself or caldwell potter) late on to manipulate the rule 4 for the yards christmas bonus.. assuming he runs, id hold hope, and should he have come forward, it will take a very useful one to beat him. He wears a first time hood, so perhaps he attempts to make all.
just to note, If k.o.k was to be beaten here then he stays in the advised bets as a loser. I’d have no interest in the winner in that scenario.
very disspointing from king of kingsfield here, and also disspointing from myself that the one I took a chance on for chelt off the back of historical races, goes and bombs. I’ll have 1 shot at correcting this race, and I’ll make sure it’s a good one. I’ll wait as long as I need to, so that I believe I’m right at the time of placing it. Again, piss poor and apologies, though id certainly take our hand on a whole, and as always, no excuses at all, entirely my poor call on backing him Ante-post for the bumper.
29Dec22 Leo2m. S 4y+ H (150K)(Grd 1)State Man 11-12 P Townend16. You’d expect him to win this.. I’m not sure what to expect from Vauban and I’m hugely suprised to see him declared for this. I have always rated him very highly, but obviously he has a task on here, so something to improve upon would be good to see. You could also argue you’d want State man to hammer him, to have a real genuine win chance in the C.H, so it’s debatable for sure, but either way, I wouldn’t want sharjah winning the race which he usually comes there swinging.
Constitution Hill looks extremely good visually. The one thing you’d say is that he’s never yet faced a rival to put pressure on him at any stage of his races. So it should be much more interesting tactically in the C.H at face value, than watching him canter round at his own leisure against his stablemate.
Got to be very happy with that here from both, and just like the arkle, I couldn’t have provided a better hand without betting a short priced fav. There should be plenty of improvement in both, theres not a rib on either yet, and I’d fancy Both to beat epatante Handily nevermind just the winner. So We’ll definitely find out just how good constitution Hill is in the big one.
29Dec22 Leo3m. S 4y+ NovCh (100K)(Grd 1)Gaillard Du Mesnil 11-10 P Townend156. Its not impossible that he could go for the RSA but I’m happy with our hand for that race, and would take him on. However i very much believe that he is a NHC horse and I will stick to my guns in that regard.
first of all a horrible race to watch and thoughts with connections of unexpected depth and now three stripe life as im editing this…I feel it’s right to be muted. its a perfect run for the NHC.. with all due respect. There’s much better about for the RSA in terms of opposition he faced today. Just to note, if for what ever reason he went RSA, and i absolutely can’t see it, I’d deffinately take him on…
In the 3m hurdle home by the Lee won fair and square… In watching the race, all i can only hope is that klassical dream makes the big day, as id be very confident about him this season. Bob ollinger travelled well, they held on to him for as long as possible to attempt to come with 1 run, and he didn’t find. Imo with a held up klassical dream here, he’d have came there and put these to bed late on.
28Dec22 Lim 2m. 6f. SH 4y+ NovCh (41K)(Grd 2) Allegorie De Vassy 10-12 S F O’Keeffe. This looks a good opportunity and I expect her to get off the mark here and retain her favourable position in the mares chase market.
She was very good here, and i was happy that she took a chance at one late on and was clever enough to sort herself out, she will have learned from that as she found it way too easy beforehand as you’d hope from one who has so much experience over the demanding french fixed brush hurdles. As you can tell with our hand, we haven’t been messing around, and we’ve a fine bunch before we’ve even gone to war with the handicaps. She’s one of many, that aren’t in there to make up the numbers, and will have a very solid chance. All i can say is, Please let us be fortunate with avoiding season ending Injuries.
28Dec22 Leo2m. 4f. S 4y MdnHdl (15K)Ho My Lord 11-7 M P Walsh. Please See the members horses to follow… he is well worth watching, and I added him to the hills any race market very early on, on the off chance he bolted up here. . HML has opened up at 12/1
It’s pretty obvious what I fancied there and the money most certainly came to back it up while going off at an SP of 5/2. Unfortunately for my money, and probably yours, that came and went at the first hurdle. That’s NH racing unfortunately, and it won’t be the first or last.
27Dec22 Lim2m. 4f. S 4y+ MdnHdl Kudasheva.
The form of kudasheva is strong. Bop bop bobbin ran an absolute stormer yesterday against a smart pair of geldings, and Bold reflection bolted up in her bumper on the same day against a horse who was narrowly beaten by the smart halka du talbert. Kudasheva should be able to wind it up from the front, and her change of gear was an instant killer in her ptp against her own sex. I think she’s potentially smart, and she’s ran in to a very real one on debut.
she jumped her hurdles overly big, and she would look to be one for chasing down the line. I was very dissapointed with her run here in a race which you’d have to be winning.
27Dec22 Leo2m. Y 3y MdnHdl (15K)Tekao 11-0 M P Walsh. It wouldn’t be a suprise to see him come forward from a reasonably promising debut.
Zanndabad cost an awful lot of money at the Arqana sales… (€240,000) and he has strong Flat form. He may be the one to beat, watch his opening odds closely. I was dissapointed that PP priced up first.. he may well drift from a fair looking 11/2 and he has a reasonable EW chance.
Tekao was decent and should come forward again. I wouldn’t day he’s yet good enough to trouble any of our hand though. Zanndabad I thought ran a very promising race while being positioned for another day, imo he’s well worth following forward, for the day when he’s lined up handy at the start.
Monday, 26 December 2022 – 3:30Chapeau De Soleil(Six day) at Leopardstown Race And Stay At Leopardstown INH Flat Race. This is where he is set to run I believe. I wasn’t 100% sure what happened immediately after the race, but he lugged left last time and just kept wanting to go out to the left, that’s what I have been made aware of. He’s still the highest regarded bumper horse atm.. but horses can come forward all the time and suprise on the track.. so it’s not nailed on he’ll end up no1. so take note of all the entries here. Ile atlantique can’t run in the champion bumper.
did I ask you that has been declared along with gordons impressive ptp winner pour les filles who has 7 pounds claimed off him.
They both looked smart horses here. I was always scared of gordons horse as above, and I couldn’t have backed a store horse for the champion bumper before a run at 16/1 or so.
Monday, 26 December 2022 – 2:40Gerri Colombe(Six day) at Limerick Guinness Faugheen Novice Chase (Grade 1). He has been declared and he should go very close. Imo he’s a very good RSA candidate that I like a lot. He should be cut for everything off the back of this.
I’d be very happy with gerri colombe here and he’s going to be some chaser up in trip. He should have a very solid chance in the RSA.
Monday, 26 December 2022 – 2:33 VAUCELET (Six day) at Down Royal McMahon McKay Hospitality And Leisure Hunters Chase (3m). This looks red hot at the entry stage, with a mix of Chelt, Aintree, tetratema cup and punchestown horses in here.. tbh id rather he side stepped it.. but he likely runs.
He was meant to be a double, however the other lad was a NR and i assume some would have been stuck on him at 4s off the back of that, so rather than getting him again in a double.. i went straight 4s to be fair for everyone. I expect him to go well.. however i think he may be beaten here, so someone trying to be clever and think their getting bigger odds by doing a win today and at chelt, may have made a big mistake. If he managed to win it would be a ridiculously strong plus and id say he then all but wins at chelt. He will deffinately improve for the Cheltenham trip and test of stamina. I’m very confident in him at chelt, its right up his street, so don’t be entirely suprised if i go against him in the racecard, or be disspointed if he’s narrowly enough beaten here. IMO we could top up..
Brain power has a very solid crusing speed and is fit as a flee… if he stands up he goes very well, and he goes to Aintree… the storyteller is as fit as a flee, he goes to chelt and he stays well enough, he should go very close here. Chris’s dream has a decent cruising speed, a touch of class and a run on the board, he will like this track and trip and he should go very well. He goes to chelt. I must mention that I’m a shade disspointed that someone added them both to the fox hunters very early season before trying any race, as we’d be on atleast 1 of the 2 otherwise at big odds. It’s not impossible that I could add 1 before the race.. if someone wanted to request the latter 2 with a to win today and at chelt, I’d be interested to see the odds with a preference for 1.
chris’s dream hasn’t been declared, which I’m happy about. We will take our chances with Vaucelet.
that’s why I love Vaucelet he has a brilliant attitude and desire and he will absolutely love the chelt trip. He stays every yard, and is undoubtedly the one to beat. He goes straight there.
Monday, 26 December 2022 – 1:10 Lossiemouth(Six day) at Leopardstown Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) herself and blood destiny could clash here, while you’ll find Gala marceau in the members NH horses to follow, and she’s absolutely no mug. I can She’s been cut a long time ago off the back of the members horses to follow when I just looked at her historical price, so a few of you may have her by the look of it. At 33s I’d probably have chanced it blind, but at 20s, even with cash-out I’ll have to have a good think and consider whether I want to give her the chance to see whether she finds. I’ll make the decision on Christmas eve.
Decs are red hot, iv taken a chance on Gala Marceau EW with cash-out and I expect a strong run from lossiemouth.
The 2nd has loads of improvement in her as she’d usually go on but he tried to teach her a lesson here and restrained her. Imo she was good value for her superiority over the 3rd. The winner looks a machine as iv mentioned all season, and I’d say I have done a very good job on this race, which is obviously one that I have a ridiculously good record in. The winners going to be tough to beat in the triumph, but I’d be thinking about attempting to get the 1-2-3 atm, which is a good spot to be in.
Monday, 26 December 2022 – 12:00 Ho My Lord (Six day) at Leopardstown All About Sunday Maiden Hurdle. See the members horses to follow for himself, and parmenion. Alastor cost £150,000 at the Arqana sales having finished runner-up on the flat in the Listed Prix Pelléas at Compiègne, and the pick of his form over 7 flat runs is his third in the Group 2 Derby Italiano back in 2021.
Parmenion Declared along side the Frankel horse diverge. I may be well wide of the mark but Harold Kirk was all over Frankel for some reason when buying Gaucher. ” I think Frankel one day will get a Champion Hurdle horse”. perhaps diverge could have been part of the reason, probably not.. but will be interesting to see jockey bookings, which you’d think would be clear cut in parmenions favour.
Parmenion was disappointing here, he came up against 2 decent types, however from what the chat was about him, I’d have expected a whole lot more. Unfortunately, they’re not all going to live up to their home reputation on the track, or it would be a very easy game.
They aren’t the only nice debutants, there’s a real big frame of a horse entered on the 28th called Indiana Dream. I added him to the any race market early, hoping he’d get out early on.. . He’d be a real nice staying chaser in time and id already have him in mind in that regard. What he did in his bumper in France was impressive in terms of what he found off the bridle for such a big horse, and hes been given time. I’m lead to believe that he could be decent as a staying prospect. The any race market is pretty irrelevant right now, in terms of handicaps with him.. so it would be a very poor call to add him now..
IF he went and bolted up here, which is a big IF, he won’t be suspended during the race, as they won’t have a clue about him, and 20/1 might not look awful. However He’s very much also worth adding in the outright races of the Ballymore and Bartlett with 365 and PP… for potentially much more appealing prices, on the off chance he goes particularly well.. Its probably also worth noting that they won’t all live up to their reputation at home, and he could be a case of the old cliche of what ever he does over hurdles is a bonus, so please don’t back him beforehand, as you’d want to watch him first. No one would be wise enough to suspend him during his run, so when he runs.. don’t wait for me.. IF he managed to win, and win well. Apologies in advance for the waste of your time in reading this, if he bombed.
Wednesday, 21 December 2022 – 11:35 El Fabiolo. This is the rearranged race that i mentioned he was set to run in last time. Cllonel mustard isnt a mug and Highland charge should make a much better chaser than people will give him credit for beforehand, However I expect El fabiolo to run, and I expect him to win. We have a very credible Arkle hand and ill be ignoring the racing post novice chase entirely over christmas. Imo we have the best horses and they weren’t able to get out to back up in it.
I thought he was very good, he has plenty of class and a crusing speed. He deffinately goes for the Arkle and as mentioned, he was always going to be our horse for that race. You’d have to be excited about our hand. I don’t think we could have a better hand in taking on a horse that I’d never have put up at the odds. We will get the better test beforehand, and there’s a lot to like.
Tuesday, 20 December 2022 – Flame Bearer(Six day) at Naas Bar One Racing Guaranteed Odds All Channels Beginners Chase. He schools nicely and you may well see him here.. he’s been declared which I believed was to be the case, and He has journey with me to beat who’s absolutely no mug. we will find out where ge is straight away, which is ideal.
The ground looks hard work and you could see a fair way out that Paul was holding on to nothing, he was dissapointing, however that’s what tests are for, and I was always very weary of JWM. He could have hacked around the likes of Exeter against trees and we’d have been none the wiser. So we’ve found early, and can rule him out.
1.05 Naas Inthepocket (Grade 2).
I liked his debut run, and he should travel nicely through this race, while he gave me the impression that he could find off the bridle. I don’t think that they were complete mugs behind him on his debut, and the 3rd is a decent type, so I am optimistic in thinking that he travels through this race nicely and he goes odds on in running. I don’t see any issue with him travelling in to the lead to challenge when asked, but I’m hoping that I’m right in terms of him having the class to put it to bed once hes there. Three card brag is deffinately going to improve for 2 and a half miles, and he’s a real likeable horse that will be ridden but will find plenty. Absolute notions found in the Goffs Land rover and on his hurdles debut, he will like this trip, and there will be no excuses here. IF inthepocket is what i potentially think he is, then he would take all the beating here. I’d want inthepocket to go very close, and hopefully he wins this and still has enough time to back up in the lawlors of Naas. I will be sharp to update after the race, but it should be self explanatory.
Deeply Superficial comes here again for her test.. its a very big one and a very tough ask… being in the mix here would see you go nicely at mares novice level. She could well find this very tough and dissapoint.
He did exactly what I thought he would, and I dont think I could have provided a much better ballymore hand at this early stage. To travel up as he’d did and barge his way through with his cruising speed then pick up and put it to bed, all on this ground, I’d be very impressed, atm I’d see him as good as anything we have.
Tuesday, 20 December 2022 – 12:35Impaire Et Passe(Six day) at Naas Jack Carter Naas Member Maiden Hurdle. I have mentioned this lad a couple of times as one who is a nice type that could be a supreme horse.. I wouldn’t want to be taking on Facile vega right now at the head of the market outright, and I’m backing nothing for the race until I have seen our man Quais de Paris. He could easily end up in the supreme.
I was the one who added him to the market, and i asked about him again just before the run, and wouldn’t have been put off. I pointed anyone who asked me, to the exchange at around 60.0. He did nothing that I didn’t expect him to do here, and as mentioned he’s a nice horse that’s one for the supreme atm, but you couldn’t be certain until the day.
it was good to see Slade steel go and do the business in the re-arranged bumper.. hopefully a few of you availed of the early 7/1 odds in the win, and odds against in the place market after the original write up. I also advised him with Grangeclare west for the belated roll up for anyone who asked me, after hermes Baie was a NR for the original option.
Monday, 19 December 2022 – 2:40 Appreciate It (Three day) at Punchestown Last Chance 20% Off Festival Tickets Beginners Chase. I expect him to run, I expect him to win, and I expect him to go down the arkle route as a big contender. He’s always been a chaser, and iv always rated him very highly. He ran respectably in the champion hurdle with no prep, this is a far easier ball game. Boothill or Monmiral couldn’t lace this lads boots, so jonbon should almost certianly have something to worry about after this, and again shortly with El Fabiolo.
he jumped a shade left which is no issue at all, he got close in to one of the early flights and he was clever to quickly correct himself. He was very good thereafter and Paul didn’t ask him any questions. He still had plenty left under him when top Bandit who was asked the question, came to him, but Paul didn’t even have to let out the reign and ask the question, he’d have ran away with this and opened up as he liked should Paul have wanted to. He’s a big contender for the Arkle, and although he’s always been open to going up in trip, and I’m looking forward to seeing El Fabiolo shortly, I’d be happy to go in 2 handed. If they decided to split them late down the line, then appreciate it would be the one to go out in trip and he’d obviously have a fine chance in the JLT. I may be adding another novice chaser either any race or for the JLT later.
Sunday, 18 December 2022 – 2:14 Belle The Lioness(Overnight) at Thurles Billy Harney Memorial Irish EBF Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed Race). I am under no illusion that this Is a tall order as mentioned but I was impressed with her run and I have a decent opinion of the horse who beat her last time in an open Novice Hurdle. I thought she travelled, jumped and picked up nicely, I think she did everything right and she just simply ran In to one. I think the model kingdom is the one to beat, she travels nicely, she showed the benefit of experience last time when she improved to settled and came home. She was a very smart bumper horse, and she’s a very useful mare. Liberty dance is also very useful, and she came forward from her run when behind the model kingdom, though I did think that form showed there entitled her to beat Foxy Girl anyway. With that said she picked up well and put the race to bed quickly which sees her fav for this. I have a bigger impression of Belle The Lioness than I do of Foxy Girl, and I think she is better than her, she has the potential to come forward from her debut run, and could put it up to the above pair even though she’d have it all to do experience wise. In theory it’s as simple as she should be beaten by both, However I deffinately thought I saw something there with her straight away, so I’ll see if she can cause a shock here. It should be self explanatory, though I’ll be sharp to update on this thread.
The winner did it nicely, I’d be willing to give belle the lioness another chance we were a race behind the winner, the winner got the run of the race, we picked up but was left too much to do with the winner given a bit of a freebie. We made a bit of a meal of the 2nd last and got caught behind a wall, I think the review after the race via the live commentary is horrendous, and she wasn’t a fortunate 2nd in the slightest. With that experience behind her, and a better toe in to the race and run through she’d have a chance of turning her over.
I don’t want to babble on too much, and decs will be in here as soon as i know any cards will be on for our runners. I can only hope that as many meetings are on or rescheduled as soon as possible, as we have plenty to come out and do the business. Weather permitting, I’d expect to be liking the look of our Arkle horse shortly.
Back now Inthepocket for the ballymore at 25/1 with b364…
I was going to hold this back however im weary of him being cut upon decs, and I want to work in front of everyone else. so I’m going to pretend that navan is on… If its not, hopefully the same race will be re arranged, and the same applies.
I have spent an awful lot of time thinking about this, as i haven’t planned to have another bet in the ballymore and I like our hand. I was impressed with inthepocket in his maiden, he looked a 2 miler to me, however iv watched it back numerous times and I’ll take in to account that he can settle and drop in, and that it was heavy ground. Henry would also know the horse better than me, and I have heard he runs, assuming the card is on.
I’ll just note that Arctic bresil who i mentioned nicely in the weeks ahead before his run, seems to be very well backed for the ballymore, however I wouldn’t be suprised if he’s a supreme horse myself. Im lead to believe that he goes to the Moscow flyer next, and ultimately that will decide where he’s going onwards.
I have watched back inthepocket plenty of times and this will be a real test. Absolute notions, three card brag, imagine and carnfunnock are all clearly useful and potential ballymore horses. IMO, i feel we we should be able to get those beaten by what we already have if any of them were to win. .. However IF inthepocket goes and beats them, then I already have a high opinion of him, and I’d always be very weary of him and annoyed with myself, knowing that i should have made the call and backed him here.
Even though I’m well aware that he could be beaten. There’s an awful lot of up side, and if he wins, he’s near fav, if not fav for the ballymore with no way he goes up to the bartlett trip. If he loses, It would really take me by suprise to see him convincingly beaten and drifting past the 25/1 he is now. I’d fully expect you to be able to get out for no loss should he lose… I’d be fairly bullish in thinking that he’s potentially very useful and well capable of winning here. You’ll know where you stand straight away, and I’m trying to build the best hand possible pre Christmas before we become more conservative in terms of taking a chance with cash-out in mind.
Ground permitting, This weekend we may well see king of kingsfield in his 2nd run at navan, while deeply superficial may get a very big test. El fabiolo has his entry at fairyhouse as mentioned beforehand and Appreciate it and allegorie de vassy should be getting there runs in very shortly. Off the top of my head, the one race I could see us potentially having a bet off the back of, would be the 2.14 at thurles depending on the result / Decs. I’ll just say its a very tough race, and away from the obvious, I really liked the run of Belle The Lioness behind a useful one last time in Intranet. I’d been waiting to see where she goes next to mention her. If it’s here, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing her beforehand with cash-out at 33/1. Again, it’s a tall order and risk and reward if declared.
I’m hoping that the model kingdom, bella scintilla, belle the lioness, liberty dance and deeply superficial mostly get declared. If that’s the case, it’s a big race, and therefore they all get thoroughly tested and we can make a decision off the back of this race. I have zero doubt that the winner should be the real early fav for the Mares Nov. The model kingdom is better now than she was at her last try at graded level, as she has learned to settle and come home. We will see if we come out with anything here, and I’d be looking for an Irish point type run from the Royal bond.
I Was watching Henry’s interview live and considered putting up honeysuckle at 5/1 for the Mares for all of about 15 seconds. I decided against it, as I just can’t see her going there in her current form, and I’d have been happy enough with that run just seen. If she went straight to the mares now, she’d be a near certainty, however she can’t, so its a win / win. She either beats the likes of state man and goes C.H, and we’ve brandy love in there. Or she gets walloped by state man, so we’ve a fine hand with him in the C.H, and she could go to the Mares as regressed and beatable
On the juveniles, there seems to be a few quid and maybe a bit of chatter around for BO ZENITH after blood destiny’s win. The forms good, and He may be good, but I wouldn’t be taking that at face value yet long term, as I’v always been confident of turning him over come March. I’d always be weary of cottin selling a first time out winner tuned up to the gills and primed in position to pounce and win that day. There wouldn’t be many that go on to improve out of that yard, and in contrast to him, Blood Destiny was ridden held up to retain his status, come home well and learn.. he had a bit of condition on him too.
Sunday, 11 December 2022 – 12:45 Arctic Bresil (Six day) at Cork Bar One Racing Maiden Hurdle. Facile vega was a certainty at the weekend when this lad was taken out of the race. You wouldn’t think he’d have won anyway in theory, however I liked his ptp, and I wouldn’t like to dismiss him being a graded potential horse. The markets made for the supreme already, and this lad can go two or two and a half. You’d like to watch and see what he can do here.
He took a little bit of a grip early and you wouldn’t be wanting to go 3 miles with him any time soon. When he was brought to the lead he was happier and relaxed well enough in her hands. His jumping was scrappy at times, though he didn’t hesitate in the slightest going in to any flight, he was comitted,brave and quite clever correcting himself after the flight. As mentioned beforehand, he looks capable of going up to graded level.
Sunday, 11 December 2022 – 12:15Blood Destiny(Six day) at Cork Bar One Racing 3-Y-O Maiden. See the members NHHTF, he’s a very nice horse, he could be a triumph / boodles horse and he should be well capable of improving throughout the season, I absolutely wouldn’t put anyone off having a few quid EW at 40/1.
I would be saying definitely take a chance on him here now declared at 40/1 EW. The Prix grandak is always a race well worth noting, and iv watched that back multiple times as well as his oppositions subsequent runs. The race has worked out well, as mentioned in the members horses to follow, I think he’s the best of them long term, and he may well make a very bright introduction here. I may have done him a dis-service in even mentioning handicaps at all atm, as its graded form, and he’s entititled to go well here and try his hand at graded level. He’s Joseph’s very highly rated flat horse to beat, and you’d expect blood destiny to go very close as you know he jumps and finishes nicely.
while im always looking at those with runs being potentially the next gaelic warrior, his prix grandak run has worked out as graded potential form plain to see, so he’s entitled to be very competative at that level next time out off the back of this. He was ran on merit and i’d be very happy with his run here for sure, he jumped good and safe early, and he will learn alot from that as he was accurate down the back, I’m also expecting a lot more to come. I’d have a very good idea of what else is about, so i made the call to act early, as I’m not going to make the mistake of waiting to assume that flat form will translate for the likes of Weston, daddy long legs, and Gaucher. We’ve acted with whats about already, and if my intuition is to be believed, then most of the quality juveniles that usually make their debut at christmas, have already ran this year. I’d be very hopeful that we’re bang in to the mix of whats yet to come, the likes of Sa Majeste, jourdefete, Jolie Coeur Allen, Bo Zenith and Gala marceau, are not certain to be able to cruise up and quicken up like Lossiemouth, or travel AND find like blood destiny. We’ve a very good mix there tactically, the members horses to follow has highlighted 2 very smart juveniles that we’ve gone on to back, so it’s up to both of them to make their mark, up in grade and cement their position.
I wouldn’t be perfect, and the one i missed was Edwardstone EW. I thought he was very impressive in the tingle creek, if you had backed him beforehand, fair play to you, I think last years winner is tough to beat, but if something does beat him, then it’s almost certainly edwardstone and he is no forlorn hope. I was a bit worried about him going in to a strong race on his seasonal debut, and alan king saying he will be going up in trip if beaten, so i was hoping to see him beaten, and for him to be an EW bet down the line NRNB in a race very likely to cut up to small numbers. He did the business early and There’s absolutely no excuse there for my poor call. The QMCC is one race that looks very tough to see an angle in now, and i wont be spending much time on the race, however I’ll try to look for a wild one late on EW NRNB with 3 places that probably won’t be there on the day.
Thursday, 08 December 2022 – 12:05 quais de paris (Six day) at Clonmel ClonmelRaces.ie (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle. (See the members horses to follow).
I better note just incase he’s unfortunately beaten…. He was balloted out prior for the race i wanted to see him entered up in, and i had/ have a feeling that he was going to end up in this, as there’s real previous to this race too. It’s a race that ballycasey has won previously, Getabird and state man were set to run, Draconien won it, and Patrick managed to get both Saint roi and Capodanno beaten in it on debut. So although i very much expect him to win this should he run, there’s been some seriously unfortunate runs in this race with horses which I knew had gone very well at home beforehand, so much so, that i probably looked a mad man when putting up Saint Roi at 33/1 any race, aimed at the county, immediately off the back of him unfortunately being beaten out of sight in this race a few years ago. I know quais de paris is smart, and i have backed him any race for the reason of him potentially being good enough to be having many options. You can win this and go try your hand at graded level, or you can be unfortunate enough to run under par for what ever reason and later win a nothing novice hurdle easily before bolting up as a future graded horse fortunately well handicapped in a big field handicap hurdle in the spring
In all seriousness, Hopefully QDP runs and wins this nicely as i rate him highly and i’d be fine for him to try the Graded route. This is what I’m expecting, and If not, ill be dissapointed
Tuesday, 06 December 2022 – 12:45 Tramore. Gaelic Warrior i expect him to win. (See the members horses to follow). The main thing I’ll be watching here is his jumping and whether he goes out to his right. He had no tendency to do that in France, but he did it at cheltenham off a long break, so hopefully its something that can be ironed out.
He was good, and you’d be happy with his jumping where you wouldn’t see any issue, all be it on a right handed track. There’s not much more to say until he encounters a real test, other than you’d be happy.
04Dec22 Fai2m. YS 4y NHF (10K) Chapeau De Soleil. I have given him a good mention already.
“he is one that I knew before he was backed. He was set to be a bet when at 33/1 with PP around the time I put up Lossiemouth and QDP. (My memory failed me, it was actually when I put up Allegorie de vassy) Myself and a member who gets on in shop, were both waiting to get on before I could notify and put him up, however he was backed heavily within 24 hours. 16/1 would be the cut off for me to even mention him. Imo that will be gone by the end of the day. so I better atleast mention him, for any that haven’t backed him”
“He’s out of soldier of fortune so he’s well bred for bumpers and he travelled well within himself in his ptp where he was never in any danger. He wasn’t asked for all but when asked for something he responded. He was authoritive over the field which were a class beneath him. What he’s beaten there, only time will tell, however its likely irrelevant with his manner of victory”.
if your on at 16s or above, then you’d be a wanting a strong start here. The likes of Ferny hollow, Envoi allen, Getabird and Al Ferof have taken in this race previously while being on route to the bumper. You’d rather be on that not, and those prices may look very big after the weekend. At current prices, and likely future ones, ill attempt to take him on, and while I won’t knock K.O.K, I’ve always planned to add another bet for that race down the line. He has won a schooling bumper at Thurles on route here, and while I couldn’t be sure at the time of giving him a good mention, he has backed it up, and does seem to be the real deal before running here. So, I have made a poor call to take him on when the price i was putting up went. However, atleast iv given him a good mention later at 16s. I’m probably going to have a hard enough job taking him on down the line, but horses do progress at different rates, and store horses can come from no where, so I’ll be positive, and in time, there will be an option. Very strange run, and I don’t want to make a quick judgement here without knowing exactly what happened. He looked full of running, then was very green, looked well held, then came home very well. They’d have expected him to win this, and without looking at the odds yet after this, I wouldn’t rule him out. I wasn’t overly impressed by the winner and im happy to take him on, as I strongly feel that the 2nd hasn’t ran his race that he’s capable of. On a positive note, the Way better days ahead came forward here, and likewise mighty potter over fences… if king of kingsfield naturally does the same, I’d be excited enough for his 2nd run.
on Gaillard Du Mesnil, I was very happy with the run, I have made no secret that he could go for the RSA in theory, but I know Patrick wants to ride him and I’m happy with both our bet on him for the NHC, and our hand for the RSA, (without him). It was a Good run from mighty potter, im not sure what people saw in banbridge tbf, and therefore mighty potter hasn’t seen his main opposition here, but iv nothing to knock him with and he sets the early standard for the JLT before the likes of appreciate it, and James du berlais, or even sir gerhard comes out, (if you like the latter over the trip).
Fairyhouse 1.25 Sun, 4th Dec, 2m Hdl (Grd 1) Irish point this is a very tough ask for irish point here on his 2nd start after winning a nothing race. He was impressive on debut, his French form stacks up, but while it’s not impossible, I’m under no illusion that others have a head start on him. He should in theory, be beaten here. We have options with him, and he should continue to progress onwards. Champ kiely is obviously the rightful fav, what if say is that I’d see him stepping out in trip to 2m5 later. Path d’oreux is also a real nice type, and marine national looks pretty good also, but I do think he is massively over rated in the betting here at 11/8. This is up there with the best renewal iv seen of the Royal bond, in terms of quality horses that have managed to get out early. Its usually a race where the winner gets lost later by better quality horses coming out, this one looks pretty different, and you’d want to be taking the winner or a close enough 2nd seriously, while there could be county/ Martin Pipe horses in behind. INTHEPOCKET hasn’t been declared, which isnt the greatest start to the NH Ante-post thread, and there is no excuse, however we will be fine long-term in that regard, i’d have been scared of him over 2m. obviously champ kiely should win really with his quality and experience, therefore i have elected to put him up for the ballymore. In the race of those in behind, marine nationale and path doroux are big dangers to irish point, but I’d expect irish point to go pretty well and although he should be beaten here, it wouldnt be the greatest suprise should he win, as I think that he will potentially be the best hurdler of these long term.
That was a sensational run from irish point here, you’d have to be seriously happy with him, and he was the one with the most improvement to come out of the field, so he’s very much the one to take out of it and I’d be extremely happy with that run. Champ kiely ran a solid race, and I couldn’t knock it, he’d need to improve for stepping out in trip, and hes likely to do so, but he was keen enough.
04Dec22 Fai2m. YS 3y H (27K)(Grd 3)Lossiemouth her form is not outstanding for the quality of race that the Prix Geographie usually is , but luckily she was much the best, and it was very much the manner of victory over her oppostion that was very taking. She has a cruising speed, and she needs to go and do the business. I’d want to see it again. Townend is on zarak the brave, it could be that Lossiemouth has 10st 3 and thats his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months, or it could be that he’s the better horse. She is likely to attempt to make all, and We will find out here if he gets to her. She was very impressive and did exactly what I hoped, as mention you need one that has a crusing speed and can quicken, she has both. You also need to be prominent, she is capable of making all, or being bang on the pace. She jumps well as you’d seen in France and today. There’s nothing to knock her with, and she is the rightful triumph fav.
01Dec22 Thu1m. 7f. Y 4y+ MdnHdl (10K)Quais De Paris 11-12 (Ballot No – 18. He is entered for an earlier race which used to be named the “Cahir maiden hurdle” which he won’t get in to, but its a good sign. State man, capodanno, saint roi, min, vautour… were all entered in that, and on top of his form, I’d obviously already heard good things about this lad along side that, going back months. He may struggle to get in this one with the ballot also, but when he gets in, i expect him to make his mark, and he should be a very live one for us across the season. I have high hopes, with plenty of options.
the reason I have backed QDP Early is that He ran 3rd behind a horse that I was supremely confident in the quality of. He jumped well, and was patiently ridden in a manner to retain his novice status. His run was as good as a victory in the fact that he retained his status which gives him more time to develop, while basically already running to a normal maidens winners level, as the task at hand, was shown to be graded level, via the winner and the 2nd. I liked his willing attitude off the bridle, He is intelligent and he both organised himself when left alone to jump a demanding obstacle, and reacted well when ridden in to one with the decision made for him.
What appealed in terms of ANY RACE is that as you can see here, he is relaxed, and very much open to going out in distance, yet in a positive manner, iv also heard he goes well enough at the minimum trip for that to also be an option. His form dictates he won’t be lost at graded level, his relaxed nature and what he is capable of finding when asked, dictates that he can either run to merit, or seek improvement down the line in handicaps, as that one run above is just as important, in the fact that it gives him a head start on the 4 runs required, if they decide to go down that route later.
01Dec22 Thu2m. 2f. Y 4y+ S (11K)El Fabiolo 11-12 (Ballot No – 9 ) I wouldn’t be 100% sure that he will get in to this race with the ballot, but he’ll be running shortly, and he’s our arkle horse, so I expect him to go nicely.
The reason I have pit him up for thr Arkle is that in France he showed a strong cruising speed and jumped the more demanding fixed brush hurdles efficiently, low neat and tidy. He has come over here and showed that same cruising speed on his first run, while showing in his run at Aintree above, that he is tactically versatile and able to drop In and come home. He was unfortunate not to win here by being interfered with by the faller. The loss of forward momentum for El Fab, exceeded jonbons winning distance, and there is solid grounds for that to be over turned, due to both his versatility, which was backed up at punchestown, and knowing that he’s able to jump a more demanding obstacle in an efficient fashion.
Sunday 12.20 Navan Tekao. I liked his flat run a whole lot, and should he take to hurdles, he’s very exciting. There’s not much more to say before he runs. This looks to be a pretty tough opener, so it will be revealing.
he was very impressive when winning above, and he looks a potential real 2m specialist juvenile hurdler to my eye. By that, i mean that he’s plenty of toe and a cruising speed, while also being able to settle and to quicken up. The Triumph itself has been ran as a test of speed for the last couple of years, with the leader on the bridle going down to the last and being capable to quicken up. If tekao’s jumping allows him to be right there, he has the late flat speed I feel is required late on to potentially quicken, and finish the job.
this was a fair race for your debut. However he just simply hasn’t transitioned to hurdles in the way in which you’d hope that he could have. They’re far from guarenteed to, and that’s why I usually have a huge preference for those with experience already in France, like Lossiemouth. Tekao wasn’t knocked about there at all late on, so he’s well worth keeping an eye on going forwards in terms of the boodles. The winner did it well, I’m not sure how much effort those immediately behind him, put in.
12.50 Navan Grangeclare West iv always rated him very highly when he was sound, and i wouldnt be certain on trip. He should have matured as he’s had a long while on the side lines since his ptp. Maybe he could develop in to a real staying type. That’s what id be thinking atm, but it’s a guess, and with the issues hes had, I wouldn’t be happy with the price before a run. Kudasheva is entered up here, and I’d be assuming that she waits for an easier ask in against her own sex. I think everyone that was a member during the daily bets / punchestown season, knows that i have always liked firm footings, and he may well be a pipe horse.Wow, this is a bold statement from henry with kudasheva, it’s a very, very, tough opener and she’d deserve to be fav for the Mares nov for winning this. I will live real tough ask, but she’s potentially smart.
I thought this was a really good race, the mare travelled and jumped well, she’ll be well able to drop back to 2 miles with no bother and she is an interesting proposition in her own races at mares novice level. She is not to be dismissed. Grangeclare West was always travelling well in behind, and I was waiting to see what he found, as she was very capable of stealing this race up front. I thought he was exceptional, and if that’s not a ballymore horse, then I don’t know what is. Imo you had to watch him here, as iv always rated him very highly as you would have seen if you was a member last season, but you’d need to go and see him do that after such a long break. He went above and beyond my expectations here, and he is very much back to what i previously hoped he’d be.
Saturday, 26 November 2022 – 12:15Luccia (Five day) at Newbury Play Coral “Racing-Super-Series” For Free Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) luccia has dotted up in her bumpers as a 4yo, and is all the talk for the Mares Novice Hurdle. I respect her and have only heard very good things. However, as seen with our betting so far, there’s plenty of options, particularly in novice hurdles behind the market leaders, so im looking to take her on in the mares nov. Our hand would be fluid in this race and deffinately not set in stone, so i’m not sold enough on the bumper runs of luccia to be backing her at single figures before she runs. Stablemate constitution Hill was very impressive today against epatante, I’d say that epatante was very poor on seasonal debut last season, to a point that that I thought she was pretty much gone at the game at the highest level, however she seemed to run to a decent enough standard here today. C.H bolted up with plenty left in the tank. He is the real deal, and he’s going to be extremely tough to beat assuming he makes it to the C.H.
now to Luccia, as mentioned before the race, iv only heard positive things, and you’d have to be positive about her debut. She was very solid, did everything right and won fair and square. The 3rds quite a nice horse and will be useful over a trip, and is well worth noting for the future. Lucia herself looks very useful but beatable, she will have tougher tasks ahead for sure and those in ireland will get more of a test beforehand, however it was a solid debut, and iv nothing to knock her with.
Friday, 25 November 2022 – 12:10Jet Powered(Four day) at Newbury Coral Bet Bundles “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race). Jet powered won his ptp very nicely before exchanging hands for an awful lot of money. He represents the yard and trainer combo of supreme winner shiskin, and he’s 2nd fav for that race. This is a race that jonbon targetted last season, and my drogo had won the year previous, beating the highly touted flinteur Sacre. Ittack blue is a ptp winner himself and no mug, so if he’s declared too then this would be risky betting jet powered beforehand. He’s no certainty here, and at the odds, pre race, I’m intending to take on jet powered in the supreme novice.
He was impressive here, and he was well clear of the 2nd who is no mug despite looking to want further.. He looks to be open to further improvement in the jumping department if I’m being picky, as i wasn’t too impressed how close he got in to the last, so it will be interesting to see how he jumps at pace under pressure from better rivals down the line. He is the first of the genuine supreme types to come out, and where he stacks up time will tell, but there may not be too many better than him in the yard over 2 miles, you’d think.
Back now El Fabiolo for the Arkle at 13/2 You can get the 6/1 with cash-out at PP and bet365, however I won’t personally be using it, as he’s our arkle horse, all but set in stone.
I think everyone knows the opinion i had of him last year, and Its A bit frustrating he was backed from some positive comments in multiple stable tours. He’s one you may have backed already at a slightly bigger price, However I was taking absolutely no chances due to the arkle being a grave yard in recent years and i was very weary of multiple options that willie has / had for the race.
I have waited, for what I consider to very much be the right time to all but guarantee that iv narrowed it down correctly. firstly to know that he’s more than fine… and secondly to find out that he’s very much set to run on Sunday at Navan. Without knowing that, you may have beaten the price, but for me he was never the right bet until now. I expect him to win here at navan, I think we’re doing some good work and building a fine hand, and he’s another of ours to look forward to for the season ahead. Theres a time and a place for better prices, however this ones simple imo, El fabiolo at 13/2.. 6/1.. It was the case yesterday that they were intending to run this weekend. He hasnt been entered, but he should be running in the next few weeks as he is ready. The same applies as soon as he’s out.
Back now… State man Champion hurdle 10/1 EW bet365/ PP… …
Nobody has rated state man higher than myself and I thought himself and el fabiolo was going to be our hand for the grade 1s at Cheltenham last season at huge prices, before state man tipped up at Christmas and elfabiolo had a very late setback. How we had that hand at 33s and 50s with no runner or return in the supreme, you’d find it pretty difficult to fathom. Especially when you do the hard work and know what they are beforehand as mentioned pre season with stateman and very early before his debut with el fab.
So consequently, I have never personally bought the hype of constitution Hill. I have little interest in times, as it has no bearing to compare it to another race, ie Honeysuckle in the champion hurdle, when constitution Hill was set up by Dysart dynamo and then jonbon as if it was a time trial. I’d also be absolutely certain that he encountered the quickest ground I have seen on the first day. Imo it deffinately was far nearer good ground than on the near soft side presented on the first day in previous years by Simon claisse. Iv no doubt that he’s a very smart horse, but iv also absolutely no doubt that he hasn’t encountered anything like the best of his division that you’d have normally have found in the supreme.
State man, sir gerhard, and el fabiolo all would have been a much sterner test, and until Id see him beat one of those by a distance, I can’t and couldn’t believe he is what he’s cracked up to be in terms of the best novice of all time…… Honeysuckle sets the bench mark for me. What she has had is very likely enough to get the job done. What she has left, I’d be hoping and thinking would give a squeak to the new blood coming through, such as constitution Hill, state man, and possibly even vauban who has an even tougher task coming out of his juvenile year.
Ideally i wanted C.H to run yesterday, and state man to drift just a shade. But, regardless of that, I’m going to take a chance here on state man EW and that will likely be our final CH bet should he win, and even should he not and you manage to cash out. I expect him to win today against a very useful sharjah and a real nice horse in Teahupoo who’s a danger if he picks his form back up after his last 2 runs in much better company. There will be zero excuses here from me, but for those who can, you’d want to be getting out for something back if he bombed. I expect him to improve throughout the season, so I’m not expecting fire works here, and I won’t be dissapointed by a narrow victory or a very narrow loss. This was a good run and victory, he jumped a little big and safe very early on but warmed up very nicely, and jumped efficiently there on. His crusing speed is solid, and he stays every yard. If this was the champion hurdle today that wouldnt be a winning performance if honeysuckle was in absolute prime condition. However its not today, and he’s ran to a C.H place standard there already. She’s almost certainly reached her peak already too. This is very much an opener for a progressive horse. I expect him to improve right throughout the season, and on what we’ve seen here, he’s very capable of developing in to a genuine real contender for the Champion hurdle.
I’ll just note that the only opportunity I see this weekend in terms of chelt, bearing in mind that we have irish point already on board any race, is that I’d be hoping that constitution Hill bolts up in a race that has nothing in it that would be sighted over 2m, and everyone goes way overboard even more so on him. Therfore the likes of state man may drift to an EW price for march before he runs on Sunday, with constitution Hill hopefully seen as “unbeatable” in the champion hurdle.
24Nov22 Thu2m. 6f. Y 4y+ S (13K) Gaillard Du Mesnil he’s prob not really worth adding on this thread until the NH chase itself, as we know what he’s all about. However if they decided to run him here, then obviously he’s worth a watch.
20Nov22 Cor2m. SH 4y MdnHdl (12K) Irish Point i backed him expecting his form to be franked throughout the season, and it has been done in an almighty way by the 2nd over in France. I’d say its some very good judgement by myself of Il Est Francais and Diamond Carl in terms of backing I.P and QDP any race from in behind them early.. so ours need to come out in the coming 6 weeks or so and do the business. We have plenty of options for them, and irish point has been declared, so he will be making his debut here. They went slow early and he was only just coming out of first gear on the turn in, he is a lovely horse who is very relaxed and you can do what ever you like with him tactically and in terms of trip. He responded the second he was asked anything at all, as he did in his aqps races, and he hit the line full of running. If asked earlier he could have won a distance here iv no doubt about that, but you wouldnt want to.
In terms of trip again he’s adaptable, he has options, and you can get him to do the minimum and hit the line hard to save something in hand. Thats why imo he is a very good any race bet. I still like him as much as I did. This was a nothing race, but you’d love the way he responded and hit the line with so much left, all options are open, and he’s one to look forward to.
17Nov22 Clo2m. 4f. SH 4y+ S (27K) Scarlet And Dove 11-5 B J Cooper150 i have strongly considered backing her EW for the Mares chase for a few months now.. early EW bets aren’t my style, but it’s a decent bet, and with a clear round she’d be bang there. I’m leaning away for the reasoning of giving myself options down the line. I’ll find out if that’s a poor decision here, if she runs away with this. I’m still somewhat considering it. As mentioned in the write up “with a clear round” she has a mistake in her alright, and that’s what put me off in terms of having her and allegorie as the 100% final hand, which would have been the case if I committed here. but with that said, she’s the best of these more experienced horses imo now and it could still have been that hand if she had drifted here and became a correct price to take a chance. I still think she has a decent chance here in the mares chase until the new blood comes through However im suprised she hasn’t driftedand off the back of this run i wanted 16s EW with 14s a strong consideration.
With a clear round is the risk again with her as mentioned, so it’s risk and reward with her and you’d want a Price. She took a cut at one here was asked early to make up for that mistake and ran out of steam late on. That was not a freak thing, she is liable to do it. should she have jumped soundly I don’t have much of a doubt that she’d have won this. So the front pair, I’d have no interest in, and scarlett and dove, im not ruling out but she brings risk. Elimay again as mentioned the cheek pieces did the trick last season pre and at chelt, and she needed them. I have always planned to take her on this season as, no one has rated her higher than me in previous years, but imo she needs more and more of a trip as she is aging. Her standout plus point has undoubtedly always been her attitude and what she finds off the bridle, there becomes a point where you can’t continue to dig yourself out of a hole every time, and for me she has reached that point now, and I still feel the need to take her on, in all circumstances bar it being very soft and a real test of stamina on the day. Allégorie de vassy should be capable of making up to this standard.
there will be an update later today, when iv seen the weekend decs after 1PM.
15Nov22 Fai2m. 5f. S 4y+ S Gerri Colombe 11-12 J W Kennedy. I have left him late putting him in here as iv strongly been considering whether to put him up for the RSA too. Back now Gerri Colombe at 25/1for the RSA. it’s a very strong race frought with dangers for a seasonal debut over a trip that’s imo too short for him. In terms of that race, I wont be dissapointed if hes beaten here tbh. This is a real test, and the best novice chase field iv seen this season. I think he’s a real stayer, and a real NH horse with a touch of class off the bridle. If he somewhat surprises me over the distance, and goes and bolts up here, he’s potentially very much a Big player for the RSA. I think it’s a pretty tall order on seasonal debut, but he’s a nice horse that will improve for a fence. Again, you’d want to be all over him here during the race for the RSA should he manage to get the job done in style, with having in mind that he could still go NHC in terms of staking. id advise taking the chance on the RSA beforehand, as its real risk and reward here. if he does win, he would deserve a big price cut. I was veryhappy with that from gerri colombe. I’d have no interest in trying to be clever and nailing him down to absolutely go for 1 target before he’s truly tested at Graded level, however you’d be thinking RSA atm. I like him, and it will work out a good race imo.
It’s worth noting that one from the horses to follow OLYMPIC MAN is out for the season….
just to note that Bet Victor are paying 4 places on EW bets for the supreme/ bally and Albert bartlett. That Is enough to tempt me, and if its still there at the right time for me, then I’m planning to target it, so if you don’t have an account, it would be worth while in preparation
Vauban is very likely to run in next week’s Morgiana. Its a huge step up to open company, however I haven’t put him up for the Champion Hurdle just to have a runner in the race. I expected him to win the Triumph hurdle, and he bolted up at punchestown afterwards. He should be improving all throughout this season, and getting closer and closer to the CH standard. I’d expect vauban to to go close enough here, as again, I think he’s the best juvenile prospect in some time. He likely needs to improve around a stone to be fighting out the finish of the C.H. Right now, I think he’s capable of it.
I would expect to be quiet this week in terms of potential chelt bets being entered up, and I will be working on a plan of action for when to get the other asociated threads up and running.
Worth mentioning for the Triumph hurdle…. the Prix Cambaceres was ran at the weekend in France, and imo it was an absolutely Trash renewal. The winner St Donats was the best of these coming in, and he was gifted the race out front, but such as the lack of opposition, he’d have won regardless. He is uk owned but now worth a fortune and it would be very brave to send him over here for the triumph itself. Its plausible they could, as the yard tried sending one for the Adonis who bombed, and this lad is much better, but again you’d be brave to guess he comes over. The 2nd is also capable of lining up over here and it would be interesting only in the case that he got a lenient mark for the boodles. Mc Tigue will obviously be seen over here and I didn’t bother mentioning him previously as I knew he was coming for this race and it was likely to be a tall order. In summary The end line up was a dissapointing turn out, it was far from a vintage renewal and the winner was much the best and able to dictate. Besides him, there was only one other horse I had a decent opinion of coming in to the race, and with the enthasis being well away from stamina, i don’t feel that she ran her race (Isaline De Chandou).
Found a fifty now has his entry on Sunday at navan. I wouldn’t put anyone off watching him very closely, should he be declared here. He travels really well, so you can absolutely see how he works well on the bridle, however in summary what he found was absolutely zero, and he won’t be winning the champion bumper. The best bumper horse seen to date this season, is deffinately the one we are on, in king of kingsfield. So we haven’t done bad work and he’s open to improvement, however its a long season.
13Nov22 Nav 2m. 1f. Heart Wood is not a bad horse, making his debut away from France and I know him pretty well, he’s jumped the fixed brush nicely, and has ran at a decent level. The uk outlets aren’t showing his form, so he may be priced up fairly wild in double digits when the market for this race opens. He’s no mug and he won’t be disgraced here. While all eyes for chelt, would be on Flame bearer who’s pretty smart. Colonel mustard would also bring in some good form over the trip. Heartwood was as big as 20/1 during the day, as i hoped he would be, and He ran very well for a solid 2nd here.
There’s a quote in the RP about Quais de paris staying in bumpers all season… I believe it to be a complete misquote… however if you’ve backed him for 2 novice races, I wouldn’t want my money tied up in that way personally with no way of getting out via the inevitable suspension that may be long term or permanent.
For any race backers, I see no issue at all. I wouldnt be worried in the slightest and its only worth mentioning for those backing him for individual races, and the annoyance of suspensions. Which is why I purposely went any race with him.
08Nov22 Fai 2m3y MdnHdl ZarakThe Brave was a nice 3yo on the flat in France. He cost an awful lot of money at the sales, and was bought to be a nice horse with connections only having himself and tuddenham green, with this lad being seen as the better prospect.
His form is of a good solid standard. My personal impression is that in contrast to Tekao, zarak the brave may lack a change of gear as he sticks at the task, rather than quickening up off the bridle. Obviously the Triumph is over the minimum trip of 2 miles that has been ran as a test of speed for the last couple of years, with the leader on the bridle going down to the last and being capable to quicken. Zarak the brave himself would perhaps want enthasis being on stamina to keep on and wear down his rivals. I would think that he may well be going out in trip next season when out of juvenile company, rather than looking towards a Champion Hurdle or county. However obviously we are currently looking at this season.
Its worth noting that i am talking in terms of the top Triumph level, in the way in which i question him being the winner of that race, before a run. He is capable at this initital level, and he may shorten dramatically from the 33/1 available currently with cash-out. You would still want to be watching him here, and forwards, as i wouldn’t like to dismiss him for the triumph off what i have seen on the flat, until you see him over hurdles. I would personally have a greater impression of others in the yard, and their suitability to a triumph hurdle, before I have seen runs. But again, It will be interesting to see how he goes here and onwards. He was impressive, it was a poor race in all honesty, however he did the job well with a fair bit left, and he’s entitled to go up the grades and see where he fits in. As mentioned prior, for those with cash-out, you’d rather be on than not.
King of kingsfield obviously has just won the bumper.. he travelled very sweetly on the bridle, took a grip throughout, and he came through and did enough to put the race to bed. Atm I’ll be overly critical, as im thinking only of the highest competition.. I was very impressed until he passed the 2nd, then i thought he was going to open up and respond more than he did. I’d say he’s open to further improvement, he’s clearly a very nice horse, and you’d think the 2nd looks a nice type alright, however to criticise as much as possible on K.OK’s run here, I’d say atm he’s beatable at the very top level. So let’s hope he comes forward from this. I have watched him back now many times, and I’m still impressed with the second here, so much so, that I have gone back to watch his ptp races. I think time may tell that giving 7 pounds away to him making all, may well work out to be a pretty solid performance on your bumper debut in testing conditions.
I would expect to be winning the bumper with king of kingsfield, and there will be nothing else added off the back of downroyal.
Off the back of down royal it should be much more chilled for a little while, and we can afford to see some runs in certain cases. I will add when I feel the need to in others.
To be prepared for Down Royal..
king or kingsfield I obviously haven’t put up for fun, and he will stay in our bets win or lose.. Obviously from a personal perspective, you may have backed him when I plugged him prior, and therefore YOU may be be able to cash-out if he happened to get beaten, though id be very hopeful that he wins.
Back now king of kingsfield for the Champion Bumper at 20/1 various.
Better days ahead has been declared for Friday at Down Royal so I would strongly assume that K.O.K will be declared for sat.. being a Giggingstown horse, there is a chance he could skip chelt, though its risk and reward and 20/1 is the price which makes it the right call.. obviously you may already have bettered that via the write ups in here and the chelt bets thread, with cash-out available.
12.53 Value Cabs 3-Y-O H’dle of €11,500.00 old victoria is in the race which I mentioned she’s very likely to be, and she’s overpriced at 40/1. Her form has been boosted, and she has her chance to make her mark. We will find out somewhat here, if she’s immediately better than I initially thought in terms of potentially the very highest level. I’d be almost certain that she will run, so if she dosen’t win, you’d be wanting to get out of it ASAP. But again, she’s no mug, and she’s open to significant improvement.
06Nov22 Cork 2m. 4y MdnHdl (12K). 1.23Tayto Group M’dn H’dle of €10,000.00 2m 190yds Irish Point is in the entries at Cork as well as here in the race where I mentioned he likely would be. I’d rather he goes to down royal, and I like him. Foxfireglow is also in the downroyal entries, I had him added to the any race market and was obviously meant to put him up at 25s before he was immediately cut.
4.10 INH Flat Race of €10,000.00 (4yo+, 2m 190yds, Better Days Ahead and king of kingsfield are in here as expected, decs will dictate if I have gone the right way. You’d likely want to be on the winner of this.
Im obviously awaiting the downroyal entries now which will be out on Monday and Tuesday at around 1pm, though we won’t find out exactly where we are until Decs.
30 Oct 22 Galway 2m Maiden Hurdle Deeply Superficial has now been declared with Davy on board, this is a real genuine test with no excuses. Battling Bessie and law Ella are the 2 that have very smart bumper form and should win a normal maiden with no issues.
She was impressive enough here in what was a proper test. she jumped nicely and travelled great. she also looks like she’ll come on plenty for the run physically too.
Chapeau de soleil is one I expect a lot have already backed for the champion bumper, he is one that I knew before he was backed. He was set to be a bet when at 33/1 with PP around the time I put up Lossiemouth and QDP. (My memory failed me, it was actually when I put up Allegorie de vassy) Myself and a member who gets on in shop, were both waiting to get on before I could notify and put him up, however he was backed heavily within 24 hours and I have subsequently elected to take him on.
The bumper horses at willies haven’t even worked together yet, so id have been wanting to wait for that, however it looks like it won’t be possible to wait, and if hes the one of willies, id be in trouble on that end, as 16s would be the cut off for me to even mention him. Imo that will be gone by the end of the day. so I better atleast mention him, for any that haven’t backed him.
He’s out of soldier of fortune so he’s well bred for bumpers and he travelled well within himself in his ptp where he was never in any danger. He wasn’t asked for all but when asked for something he responded. He was authoritive over the field which were a class beneath him. What he’s beaten there, only time will tell, however its likely irrelevant with his manner of victory.
With that said he’s no certainty to be the mullins no1, and they won’t even know how they stack up themselves yet.
Going in to down royal is where the real jumps season starts imo.. and ideally I’d be hoping that we may be able to cut to 1 bumper horse at the coming meeting, while coming out of there with a solid one. We will add selections, as and when I see fit, however just as importantly, I’m very much of the mind to sort out what we already have as soon as i can. We don’t want any dead wood open to injury.
Entries aren’t out yet for downroyal, and i may be way off, however id like to think I may have a fair idea of what to expect.
I’d expect to see old Victoria in the juvenile hurdle, and I’d expect her to be backed going in to that race for the Triumph for which shes currently 40/1 with cash-out at bet 365. She has 2 runs on the board already so should she end up running in the likes of the spring juvenile down the line and be beaten, then she may drop in to the boodles. I wouldn’t be keen on her myself for the triumph at this stage, as I don’t think her form ammounts to what the likes of Lossiemouth has achieved, however she is already off the board in France, and has been registered here last week, so she could well make a bright start while the competition isn’t yet out, and for those that build books, which isnt me, you’d probably want to be thinking ahead. While personally I’ll be keeping an eye on her, for a uk mark.
for the 2 mile novice hurdle on the card I’d be thinking that Imagine or Irish Point could well be seen. The former is well regarded, as was mighty potter who ran in this race last season. The latter has substance to his form and will make in to a useful type. We already have him in the book and i have plenty of options in mind for him. Again, imagine is not for me, he could run beforehand at wexford or wait for this, and he is a current 33/1 chance with bet365. For those who make books, giving him a mention, may be of use. I wasnt impressed with imagine here, I personally think he wants further and I can’t see him anywhere near the grade 1s, though I wouldn’t be suprised to see him bang in the mix for the Martin pipe down the line.
as mentioned prior, for the up coming bumper I’d be thinking it’s between better days ahead, found a fifty, and king of kingsfield. Iv already given a good mention to those 3 at what their odds were, well in advance, and I’ll be suprised if one of them isn’t winning the bumper on the 2nd day of the downroyal meeting.
Deeply Superficial Galway 12.40 Sun, 30th Oct, 2m 11yds MdnHdl
See the members NH horses to follow.. for more detail,… though she is entered up in a nice looking race at Galway. Battling Bessie, law Ella and walk in the brise would provide a real test here should any of them line up, as they were a trio of very smart bumper horses last season. This looks a strong race on paper, and someone will be taking a big scalp out of this race. From what I saw in her ptp, you’d like to think that deeply superficial will be very useful, she will need to be here.
Queensbrook there was a good example of why its best to bet on your own convictions rather than getting excited about trainer comments that dramattically over hype one with no substance. The mares race looks considerably stronger this season, and she was flattered by having the run of the race, while there were poor rides on the likes of Stormy Ireland and Echoes in rain, who were both ridden with restraint to their detriment and her gain.
I am getting lots of messages asking aboutChemical Energyinthe NHC. As per the post below, I wasn’t over enthusiastic about the entries there, and i still wouldn’t be after him beating trees while fully fit with the added advantage of experience and his ideal ground conditions.
He hasn’t magically just improved 20 pounds plus in 1 run to be a world beater at graded level. The race he has ran flattered him considerably and it wouldn’t replicate the test of stamina and jumping of the NHC in any way. The ground should be atleast on the soft side of good on the first day.
The only reason I see him as the price he Is, is imo because people are getting overexcited about him being the first horse to have ran and have a target assigned to him. That’s all good, however if he ends up being Gordon’s no1, firstly I’d be suprised, and secondly, I’d expect to have him covered with Gaillard, nevermind our option of dipping back in to the market.
Entries will be out tomorrow for the pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham on Saturday, where any gordon elliot raider in the entries, may be of interest. However looking at the entries now a day later at 8.15 AM, he has 3 in there atm, vina ardanza, Salvador ziggy, and lieutenant highway, and I wouldn’t be overly excited with any of them at face value.. in the 3m nov chase he has Chemical energy and tullybeg who are both kim muir types of horses, though again I wouldn’t be overly enthusiastic at this stage.
20Oct22 Thu2m. 7f. G 5y+ H Minella Crooner is one that you’d like to think, could develop in to a pertemps final horse. I would be keeping a close eye on him, and the result of this race would mean little, should he take up his entry. However the entry itself would allude to him staying over hurdles.. so for me that makes the NHC fairly straight forward, atleast initially. I’d see Frontal assault as being found out over fences in terms of graded aspirations, well before Cheltenham. So on forseen ability over fences, that brings Gerri Colombe in to the NHC picture imo, with no need to worry about crooner, who was suitable for the trip.
There is no reason what so ever for three stripes life to be campaigned at the trip, minella cocooner has a decent cruising speed and I’d see him as RSA bound, likewise the nice guy. Though you’d still be weary of one of those dropping in, should something happen with Gaillard du mesnil. As above, I see Frontal assault being found out with no issues at Graded level, and hillcrest is out for the season. Ganapathi wouldn’t be one for a 3m6 test of stamina, while call me lyreen has been disspointing over fences and again wouldn’t be one for the trip. Authorised art has a cruising speed and hasn’t beaten much, atm you couldn’t really see him making all as a test of stamina in this, as his jumping at pace has been his asset that has seen his improvement. Thyme hill was dissapointing over the fixed brush hurdles in France last season and didnt take to the demand on his jumping. You’d think that he would be going towards the RSA or back over hurdles. Gentlemensgame in the same colours of Gerri colombe is credible for this race, to be fair, where as Gentlemensgame has been prominent of late and is comfortable at 3 miles to attempt to go down the RSA route. Again with him, he’s not to be ruled out entirely. Stage Star and mighty potter won’t be going anywhere near this race. Banbridge is in the colours that has gone well in this race recently, therefore he will likely be all the rage for this after his chase debut win… However For me, he received a decent ammount of weight from hollow games over a fairly inadequate trip for the former who was staying on… Whatdeawant deffinately wants further than the intermediate trip he has been running over, however in terms of this, he has no ptp background, and I’m not sure they’d up him past 3 miles any time soon. Minella crooner has a hurdles entry as above, he also improved switching to hurdles from his ptp, as he can take a cut at an obstacle. So he’s possibly unlikely to improve should he make an unexpected u-turn and immediately switch to the larger obstacles. Ash Tree meadow is building experience and its not beyond the realms of possibility that he could stretch out in trip, However its hard to see him wanting this much distance, or being a graded winner at the spring festivals. Idas boy has a ptp background, and some reasonable form, though he has a mistake in him, and he has been beaten fair and square for stamina by Gerri Colombe who should come forward again, with a test of stamina, which should hold up, due to his sound jumping. We are now already up to Gericault roque who is 39th in the betting at 33/1, would be interesting down this route as a novice who has accrued plenty of experience . He went down narrowly in the Ultima Last season, and he is worth just keeping an eye on to see if he can improve on his mark, which may inturn rule out a repeated attempt at handicap level. Though without improvement, I’d expect him to be found out for the victory, by a genuine graded level winner. Gaillard is already graded level, while gerri colombe will have graded aspirations over the larger obstacles, over a trip.
15-10-22 AUTEUIL 4:15 2m 5f Diamond Carl represents the form of Quais De Paris, and I have been following him on since debut. We have acted nice and early on a race which i have always expected to work out to be a very strong form line (as we did with the juvenile Gaelic warrior last season). I would expect Diamond Carl to have every chance of winning what is a strong graded race, which will only enhance the claims of our any race bet on QDP as a novice. He has gone and bolted up again here in a strong graded race, you could argue that he was committed a bit early, and the 2nd came out of the pack and closed on him late to be slightly flattered, however she is a grade 2 winner in her own right that was in receipt of weight, and she is absolutely no mug. It’s a very solid victory for Diamond Carl here, and exactly what I had forseen way back, firstly when I added QDP to the any racemarket and then when I decided to put him up down the line. In QDP We have a very live one, with strong form.
Portrush P 3.00 Sat, 15th Oct, 3m Point to Point Castlebawn West and samcro may well end up clashing here, the former has been frustratingly added by someone else, straight in to the foxhunters market as fav with sky and unibet.. The way to have done it would have been to request him to hills for both the gold cup outright and any “any race” without mentioning the fox hunters at all.. iv no idea what sort of form he will be in these days, and just a note that he / they won’t be the only ones to go down that route with the possibility to take advantage of. So a note for down the line, to avoid requesting anything, for that race outright. Castlebawn West is unfortunately gone at the game and pulled up early. Samcro was an imperious winner by over 30L, snd is well worth keeping an eye on in this sphere at Aintree or punchestown . The current fav for chelt: Vaucelet stayed on well for a had fought victory earlier on the card. Vaucelet imo is underpriced as fav right now, only for the reason that i can see him potentially being beaten for toe in a strong race pre Cheltenham. However the stamina test of chelt will really suit him, and he may become backable off the back of a defeat on route.
08Oct22 Che2m. 3f. GF 4y+ S (35K)Mcfabulous 11-5 H Cobden
Last seasons ballymore wasn’t one for the history books in terms of quality, so in all honesty this lad should be able to mix it with the likes of three stripe life that was in behind Sir Gerhard, and at 33/1 with cash-out he would be over priced with EW claims in any other yard. However I fancied Mcfabulous strongly in the Coral cup, and he was taken out of the race by Paul nichols, who indeed took very near all of his horses out of their respective races. Unfortunately that’s what you can get with him in recent years. Imo he has a fear of being embarrassed at the top level by the Irish raiders, and imo he sees it as they can’t beat him if he dosent have runners. So these days he runs what’s close to a race of his juveniles at wincanton in Feb, and puts the victor in to the boodles, then he tries to ready a couple for the Grand Annual, and finds a highly rated chaser who qualifies for the Fox hunters chase. Anything outside of that, he sees as a risk with a full strength field, and you can see his other decs go in at the last minute if the race looks to cut right up, as per next destination in the National Hunt Chase a couple of years ago, which he quickly switched out of the intended RSA. So in summary I’d see mcfabulous as possibly developing in to a legit contender that should be in the mix, However I absolutely wouldn’t put it past the trainer skipping for a weakened event at Aintree.
3.00 Mongey Communications S´chase of €16,500.00 5-y-o plus 2m. 6f. Frontal Assault (IRE)
I didn’t quote this race beforehand and tbh I didn’t think it was worth quoting afterwards, however I had a good few messages before and after the race, and I personally think you’d have to be a bit of a nutter to be taking 14s 12s 10s… about Frontal assault for the National Hunt Chase. He beat trees here in a race which fell apart due to the multiple mistakes of Jon snow. I liked Frontal assault strongly for the Kim kuir last season after putting him up at 25/1, though I was well aware that was handicap level, and i wouldn’t have given him much of a prayer in the National Hunt Chase. He’d have to come forward considerably this season to give him a solid chance this year, and he deffinately hasnt shown that yet from this race. I wouldn’t see any way that he reverses the form with gaillard du mesnil who was carrying weight to be well clear, and I expect multiple horses to come on the scene and be above the level of Frontal assault, with the likes oGerri colombe…. etc… before you’ve even looked at those who were handicapping over hurdles. So just a quick mention that I would have no interest in Frontal assault for the National hunt Chase. As soon as I see worthwhile entries they will be in here, however its very important to be selective, than get over excited about horses beating nothing.
it’s not long now before the start of the National Hunt season, and although by looking at the markets, it won’t be easy, I will definately be on the ball. We won’t end up with a huge number of horses in each race, however we will have a solid hand full of chances spread all across the week.
With the prices seemingly as sensitive as they are, and membership being to a set level, we are going to be effecting markets. So im sure its obvious but just to mention again once to new members, that there is a one strike rule in regards to either posting or sharing content from within our threads. It’s my job to make sure that everyone including myself, gets on the right selections, at the right price. So i would be on the case immediately to anything that could remotely stop that.
With that bit out of the way, I’m very much looking forward to the season incoming. As always, I’m very well prepared for whats to come, i have already started building our hand with some nice types as you will later see, and there will be a whole host of opportunities to add selections over the coming months. You can rest assured that I will be putting all of my effort in, to give us the very best opportunity of having a good hand come cheltenham time.
If you are someone that likes to add some of your own selections alongside the ones that I will be putting up, then please feel free to contact me about either any bets you are considering, or at a later date, that you have placed with cash-out available. I’m not going to critique your personal bets as such, I just don’t want people having potential non runners that we can avoid, and it’s very important to limit any losses to a minimum.
There is no obligation to, however i am fully contactable at all times with any requests, or questions, no matter how big or small. So please feel free to contact me whatever the time, and I will get back to you as soon as I can. There is no wrong question, that is too easy or too difficult. If I don’t know the answer, then I will attempt to find out.
The next thing that will be in here will be horses entries, reviews after they have ran, and quite possibly some notes of stable tours, bets, news, or reactions to inevitable injuries that either effect our bets, or may give us a way in to the market.
But firstly its very rare that i will plug anything, however I think the daily bets service deserves it, and I will just mention that we’ve had another very solid season in the Daily bets on the flat.
Other than obviously the selections being my personal income, My whole focus there is to build a solid profit each season for members to have paid for the whole ultimate service membership before we have even got on to our Chelt Antepost.
Even to a £10 stake, that would have been achieved now in each of all 3 seasons. With £20 that would have returned far more than double the whole ultimate membership cost each season, and multiplied so forth, depending on personal stakes….. This season I had even entirely halved pt stakes purposely down to absolutely and categorically cement gambling responsibly. We still achieved that level, even at half stakes.
I do put daily bets selections up the evening before on week days for everyones ease, however members will know that I am not looking to put up obvious horses that are cut immediately. Although on occasion a bet may end up getting cut before the morning, our results are still strong at SP with most daily selections returning at prices very simular to the advised one, and the occasional 2yo can drift dramatically the other way before still winning or placing.
So just a shout out to the ultimate service and the daily bets for anyone that is a currently a chelt only member, and may be interested in sharing the flat season with us next season as an ultimate member. There is obviously zero obligation to, but the target will again be to atleast cover the whole ultimate service fee across the flat season for anyone betting even £10 a point or obviously above to our advised pt stakes. Before chelt Antepost has even started.
previous selections are untouched and available to view on the menu.
Now back on to what everyone has been waiting for….. which will be back at the top of this thread going forwards.