I’m obviously confident, as i have put the work in, and i think we’ve got a real nice bunch of selective chances spread across the week, and that starts here on Tuesday. I am not looking for an accumulation of winners, but I am looking to hit selectively at rock solid prices. we’ve every chance of getting off the mark today.
I have worked harder than i have ever worked, and there will be zero excuses, but don’t forget that it’s a very long week, and we’ve chances spread right across it. If we manage to get in to the plus by the time Friday comes round, and we’ve plenty of chances to do so, then we’re in for a very solid week.
Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Trends
Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 11 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Supreme Novices Hurdle, 11/12 winners ran within the last 66 days
4/12 winners ran in the tatterdalls iteland novice hurdle on their last run, 4 of the 4 won, 0 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Tolworth on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham , 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Diverge bolted up in a poor race, and deffinately dosen’t have the strength to his form that I usually like. However, as mentioned upon his debut, I was always looking for a Frankel of Willie’s pre- season when Harold Kirk kept mentioning the Sire and that he could be having one in the champion hurdle shortly enough.. When he went and bolted up on his 2nd start, I had a fair idea, but my opinion of him has since been cemented by some positive mentions. I’m obviously not expecting to win this by any stretch, but we know the fav isn’t unbeatable, so although this is a very tall order, we do have a chance on engine alone, of getting in to that mix for the places at a price. He will be a pretty smart horse longer term.
inthepocket will enjoy this ground, he’s a strong traveller and now he has matured we will see what he finds off the bridle. He needs to be left for as long as possible to come with 1 run and he is no forlorn hope. He has his chance of reversing that last time out form where he was caught on the inside and made use of in a fastly ran contest, now with more emphasis on stamina he should be in the mix.
Facile vega bombed last time and scoped dirty, he had beaten the winner prior, and Willie’s has done everything he can do to try and clear the path for facile vega to win this. Willie obviously has an emotional interest with facile vega being a home bred out of quevega. They want him to win, and with him coming off the pace this time, it’s plausible that he does, I just wouldn’t want a gun to my head on him for sure, as he could bomb.
Tahmuras won a bang average renewal of the tolworth, and I was very slightly tempted to back him ew for this early on as an outsider at big prices beforehand or even immediately after. He was very solid value for his winning distance after travelling much the best and still being quite green. My issue is the strength of novice races in the UK, are just absolutely nothing like those in ireland. That would sound strange, as I have ended up backing a winner of an absolute nothing maiden race myself, so it will be interesting to see how we face up against a uk Grade 1 winner.
Il Etait temps has experience and solid form, he was being pointed towards the county before coming with a wet sail and beating facile vega In his prep. He had threatened prior to travel and look capable visually of beating facile vega before not finding previously, so despite looking very solid in terms of what he just did, I’d still have my reservations in a finish.
Marine Nationale is obviously a smart horse having won a strong renewal of the Royal bond on his last start. Connections are very confident, however Barry Connel is a very confident man anyway so id expect nothing less. For a hold up horses to be left off since the Royal bond having never gone a serious clip at grade 1 pace, I think is an outrageous call. Again, iv backed the winner of a nothing maiden, so I can’t knock lack of experience, but I could see others getting first run on marine nationale. On the other hand, they aren’t certain to fire, so atleast this lads surefire to run a race of a late 140s horse.
in summary, this is far from a great renewal of the supreme, and if someone said I could have £500 to just pick the winner regardless of the price, I’d chance FACILE VEGA, but with a gun to my head, I’d be seriously frightened to go with him. The alternatives are listed above and we have a low key start on the ones that would likely be seen as be the biggest shock of them. That’s fine, and You’d think that Somethings going to step up markedly on what they’ve achieved so far, and i wish I could be certain of what, but we have an EW chance.
Inthepocket ran a stormer and i would be very happy with diverge there, I knew he was to be ridden in that manner and it’s a very solid place and a plan well executed. He will be ridden more handy in the future and is a real nice type going forwards. Facile vega ran very well and his ride was fine imo, townend commited and the winer beat him fair and square. The race was set up lovely for the winner in terms of pace on and a test of stamina in the conditions, he was well positioned throughout to test the stamina of vacile vega, and obviously came out on top.
Most will probably take diverge out of the race for obvious reasons however ill take Inthepocket, he has the ptp background, he jumps nicely, and the off season should do him good to strengthen up. As soon as he starts finding off the bridle, and with maturity he will, then he’s a really nice middle distance horse for the future over fences. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the mix for the JLT next season so ill be keen to see how he goes onwards for the rest of this campaign..
Arkle Chase
Trends
Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
Price – 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 12/12 won on their last run before the Arkle Chase, 9 of the last 12 winners ran within the last 51 days
3/12 winners ran in the irish Arkle on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
2/12 winners ran in the Game Spirit on their last run, 2 of the 2 won
Previous Course Form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 8/12 had at least 3 wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 chase win, 9/12 had at least 2 chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 151 or higher
Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 or grade 2 race
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 9/12 had at least 2 wins that season.
El Fabiolo has won the best trial and closed down Dysart Dynamo with ease. El Fabiolo has a cruising speed, and a mighty engine, he is by far the most talented of these. A lot has made of his jumping and im not sure why myself as he’s a novice and that’s what novice races are for, he was clever enough when he made a single mistake last time, and I’d personally want to be on the one with the biggest engine and cruising speed rather than hoping that another horse is going to make an absolute howler, or fall so I could win. Imo we have every chance of getting off the mark here.
jonbon has little strengths to his form in contrast to the race just won by el fabiolo. Many were disspointed with his last run, though I genuinely thought it was his best run of his bunch, he just had it put on him by a decent enough horse for the first time. This is a lot tougher, he’s going to be massively on the back foot here, and although I deffinately expect him to get past Dysart Dynamo late on, id have already seen el fabiolo get to him In my mind, and the bird has probably flown.
Dysart Dynamo will probably get a soft lead here, and I still don’t think it’s enough in a small field, the 2 above are very strong stayers at the trip, and id be very suprised if atleast 1 of the 2 don’t get to him for win purposes, and likely both.
I was obviously supremely confident with el fab, and anyone who asked me for the nap on day 1 was given him.. he won this easily and it was an easy watch as he was always travelling like the winner and it was just a matter of when he was asked to go. The race rode exactly as expected and Dysart Dynamo fell in a hole as I have always said with him, and jonbon was done by a superior cruising speed..
El Fabiolo is very obviously the one to take out of this race, I obviously like energumeme a whole lot to, but this is the lad that will take his crown, whether its next season, or the one after. He is very smart and that’s a weak division outside of energumene, and unless constitution Hill rolled up in a fairly wild manner then it’s a straight shoot out. I will get him on board with something from the flat with no bother, he is the one I was wanting to put up beforehand.
Ultima Handicap Chase
Trends
Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 7-9
Price – 1 of the last 12 winners were favourites , 6/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weights – 8 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 6lbs & 11st 8lbs
Last Run – 3/12 winners won on their last run before the Festival Trophy Handicap Chase, 10/12 winners had their previous run within the last 45 days
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 3 miles ot further, 12/12 winners had at least 1 win in a race of 3 miles or further
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 12/12 had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners had a rating of 132 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season.
fastorslow has been declared and I somewhat saw that coming as they’d want to assure themselves of cut. He finds off the bridle and has a really good attitude. He prob goes off fav, and has a decent chance here with a tongue strap applied to make sure he gets the trip. Historically Iv had a total of 9 bets in the Ultima and i have had plenty of places, however, it’s the only race I have never won, so fastorslow would be a big winner for me here in that regard, and I’d be hopeful as you can be in a very tough race to win. I think he has very decent EW claims.
corach rambler won this last year and is just a few pounds higher, I thought the ground was particularly quick last season, and for a hold up horse, I wouldn’t have thought that would have been absolutely ideal for him but he got the job done very well. I’d find it hard to belive they’d let it go off as quick as that again, so therefore a more stamina demanding race should suit him and counter his rise in the weights. He will need luck in running but he looks to be well in to the mix in a competitive race.
nassalam comes in here with the post race comments of having stayed on over 2 and a half miles in a race which was won very comfortably by midnight river. He was held up and didn’t waste an inch on the inside with the perfect lack of pace infront of him and run through. The ammount of horses bunched together with still 4 to jump showed the lack of early and mid race pace on, and despite that not being ideal at all for midnight river it considerably impressed me to see him manage to get there early and get the job done quickly while going wide in an early sprint for home, which is not his game at all. In regards to nassalam he’s not certain to stay this longer trip here, having got the ideal run through, imo he was flattered by beating horses that were commited particularly early on a sprint for home off a slow pace, and closing on a horse that had already got the job done a long way back.. Time will tell how he fares with more pace on infront of him over a longer distance. There’s nothing in his form to say that this is what he wants however he’s a young maturing horse, off a fair mark, and I suppose you never know.
into overdrive has strong form this season and has been prominently ridden which I’d a benefit. He has risen markedly up the weights, and it’s not as simple as him running the exact same race and that being enough, he needs to come forward again, and should he do so, he’s well in to the mix.
Threeunderthrufive I could have backed at 25/1 when I knew he was running but I elected to turn him down at that as I’m not happy with what he has been finding off the bridle, and his mark which I feel is harsh for what he has recently achieved. He will probably be bang there, and then fall in a hole late on, which is what everything indicates, but once you get in to a nice rhythm then you never know. Plenty have randomly popped up to win a big handicap when prominent in a big field.
We obviously ran an absolute stormer here and the one horse I didn’t want to meet on the run in especially on the rail, we did. I’d still be very happy with that and it’s a very solid Return. The winner won fair and square.
There’s only the front pair to take from this, the winners a very good horse to be winning this in contrasting conditions and finding in the manner he has done. You’d have to say that there was nothing wrong with the decision for fastorslow to come in to this race, he’s just ran In to one very late on.
Champion Hurdle.
Trends
Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 11/12 winners won or placed on their last run before the Champion Hurdle, 10/12 won on their last run, 9/12 ran within the last 51 days
5/12 winners ran in the Irish champion hurdle on their last run, 4 of the 5 won, 0 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 7/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 6 runs over 15-17 furlongs, 9/12 had at least 5 wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 had at least 4 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 161 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 10/12 had at least 2 wins that season
I won’t be crowning Constitution Hill until he has won this. Imo He has had the worst prep of these In beating nothing in a jog round all season with no early pace on. Highway one o two was bang there tuning in last time, and that shows the Trash he’s encountered to date compared to the fractions of state man. Many will expect constitution Hill to travel all over him and not come off the bridle, I’ll probably be the only one that’s suprised if that’s the case here, as I see far more pressure on him, pressure on his jumping that he’s never had, and a chance that he un ravels off what I consider to be a prep that’s been far too easy. He should win, but we will see.
it would look to be very obvious for state man to make the running at a true test to put Constitution hills jumping under pressure for the very first time, and we can then question what he finds under pressure. I’ll be shocked if he’s not coming under a drive and having to think about this here. State man has it all to do, but I don’t think he’s a forlorn hope for win purposes.
Vauban, I’d have very much thought, would adopt the Arctic fire/ sharjah role in behind to come late and try and pick up any pieces up the hill. He should come home very nicely, and if the front 2 got in a real battle, its not impossible. He needs to jump better early and hes open to improvement.
I have provided the best hand that I could have done, and we’ve a chance, with a likely return, which is all i can ask for. I’d see a bigger chance than most would do, but you may aswell expect to be beaten, and you won’t be dissapointed.
Constitution Hill did it very well and we’ve another solid place here with State Man which takes us just in to the green for the whole day with 11pts of solid chances left and paid for. I wasn’t happy with the tactics at all here, as the only way to beat him was to put pressure on him early during the race, There was zero pressure applied and he had the absolute run of the race here. However he is very obviously still the rightful winner and extremely smart..
vauban would be the one to take from this over hurdles in regards to him being on the pace rather than held up to come through. That was the owners decision and that’s fair enough, he has improvement in him he’s a legit ew contender for this next season, but you’d want to see his next run, and what he does on the flat, as id be assuming he may be having a long season.
Mares Hurdle
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5-7
Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 10/12 winners won on their last run before the Mares Hurdle, 8/12 winners ran within the last 52 days
Previous Course Form – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 4/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 had at least 3 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 9/12 winners had a rating of 148 or higher
Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 7/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season, 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season.
Maries rock Imo is just about the one to beat here, and she was very impressive in her seasonal reappearance in the relkeel. She beat epatante fair and square at punchestown, and I’d expect her to do so again here. Honeysuckle is the one to worry about, as is a late challenge of Echoes in rain, however we are well covered there with the latter. Maries rock should be absolutely bang there at the finish.
Echoes in rain has improved imo, and add on top of that her awful ride in this last season, then she’s far away from being out of it here. She should drop in, however be left well in touch to come and pounce late here. I absolutely see a win chance, and imo she has a great chance of coming through late on to be bang in the mix. For me she’s the stable no1 in all ways but her rider. She has very credible EW claims here imo. I like her a lot.
Brandy love was poor on her reappearance, I don’t think that she’s an outstanding price at the 7/1 EW that we have off the back of her last run, but she will improve for fitness and level weights here, and I’ll take it at face value that they both still think that she will be better for going left handed, and that she has come forward considerably upon her last time out effort. She needs to improve a lot and again I was very disappointed in that run, as I liked her a fair bit last season. As long as she does come forward markedly, then She has EW claims here.. Let’s hope she finds it and gets herself well in the mix.
Honeysuckle is still a very solid mare and she has ran in 2 very strong races this season with great credit. I think it’s an absolute disgrace for a 2 x defending champion hurdler, who is unbeaten in that race, to be running back in the mares hurdle. Regardless of that, this is a big drop in class, and she has a very solid chance here on what shes a achieved so far this season. Imo she’s still within 7 pounds of her best form, she has just been running in better races before this, and she should go very close.
Epatante was poor early last season before running a stormer in a very weak champion hurdle. She has plodded round this season while well beaten against her stablemate. She ran last time in an absolutely atrocious race and obviously won as she’s well entitled to do so. I find it very debatable how good she still Is, and very debatable what she will find off the bridle, I think she’s very beatable myself and has achieved very little this season. I’m personally very unsure why it’s talked about as if it’s her race to lose, as she has beneffited from being well placed with a lack of domestic grade 1 opppsition. IMO She hasn’t won a deep race in 3 years.
Theatre glory has been supplemented and imo that’s an outrageous call and I can’t see her being strongly involved here. She won a nothing race last time, and this would look an almighty step up, which would look beyond her ability imo.
Disgusting race to watch again tactically I understand Patrick is under orders however it was obvious that there was zero pace on and it was going to be a Sprint for home from the front, so pulling a train miles behind was obviously no use. This race didn’t suit Echoes in rain, brandy love or maries rock in the slightest.. it was literally a procession for honeysuckle to come through and take this, however that’s on me as much as anything else, for not working out that there was zero pace on.
iv watched this back while not wanting to, and it’s very hard to know what stays in training, so it’s probably foolish to mention something to follow forwards.
Boodles Juvenile handicap Hurdle
Trends
Age – Race is for 4yo’s only
Price – 1 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 3/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weight – 9/12 winners weighed between 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, 9/12 winners had their last run within the last 32 days
3/12 winners ran in the Rated Novice Hurdle (Naas) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won, 0 placed
Previous Distance Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Rating – 8/12 winners were rated between 125 and 134
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Risk belle was last on a mark of 123 and is now 127. She is a stayer, but hasnt been quite put in to her races as she could have been. There is improvement to come, and She would have solid claims of coming late here in a very competitive race.
Punta Del este i have always had in mind for this and he ran very well on his uk debut which was his qualifying run. He was hampered, he wasn’t asked for much of an effort, and he picked up when asked late when the front 2 had already flown. Imo he was ridden to preserve his boodles mark and he has been given 126, he’s better than that imo, so therefore has decent claims in a very competitive race.
Tekao has a strong cruising speed and tactical pace, therefore he has zero excuses. He is Off 135, and I think that’s plenty high enough when taking in to consideration that he hasn’t once found off the bridle. I have no doubt that he will travel best of all, I strongly doubt, what he finds in a finish. I see him beaten late on.
we can’t back them all in here and I can make a compelling case for about 16 of them, so i’m not going to encourage going balls deep in this renewal as it’s very competitive. We have a legitimate chance, and it would be a bonus to win this race.
Stayers came to the fore here and risk belle ran an absolute stormer and couldn’t quite get it done. Imo punta del este was made too much use of for a staying type but after the last race, i don’t blame him for making an early move to be handy. Jazzy matty who I mentioned more than 12 months ago for this, came through for victory, with in contrast to the mares, there was plenty of pace on here.
National Hunt Chase
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 12 winners were favorites/joint favorites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 5/12 winners won on their last run before the National Hunt Chase, 7/12 winners had their last run within the last 52 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, only 3 had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 3 miles or further, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 3 miles or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners had a rating of 142 or higher
Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Gaillard du mesnil has a strong chance here, I’ve said all along he will run, and I’ve said all along that hes a big contender. I have obviously liked him strongly all year, and I give him a solid chance. This race is a little tougher than i ideally imagined, however He’s most definitely the one to beat here with zero excuses. If we’re not off the mark already, we’d have every chance of doing so here at a big price.
Mister coffey dosen’t have a flashy profile like some others in here, however he is a good, solid, experienced jumper and a genuine 145-150 horse, and that’s what I want. I can’t guarantee what level some of these infront of him in the market are, but i can guarentee that mr coffey has solid ew claims. He has every chance of being well in to the mix.
chemical energy has won at Cheltenham in a nothing race earlier in the season in his absolute ideal conditions. This is miles tougher, he has been found out already. I couldn’t see him winning this at all.
mahler mission is a nice type of horse. If this was in ireland then he’d be bang in the mix, However I’d have to take into consideration that he jumped poorly in his trial at Cheltenham, and whether that was a lack of experience or he found it not to his liking, you would only find out here.
minella crooner is a solid enough staying type that comes in to graded company over a trip. I think if he’d have got in to the Kim muir, he’d have ran there, and he’d have had a class advantage over a lot of the field. He dosent have that here, but he has a chance of staying on well and being in the mix.
we’ve obviously had a very good result here with a win and a place at huge prices. He stays every yard and there was never a point where I thought he was beaten as it was just delayed hold up tactics. Mr coffey ran very well and was rock solid, to be fair chemical energy ran a stormer. I respect the horse infront who tried to slip the field, but I’d be certain he didn’t effect the result for win purposes as jumping around is the name of the game as mentined with him above.
Mahler mission was kicked for home a long way out under an enterprising ride and took a tired fall when under a drive and for me looking to come in to trouble on the run in, I honestly don’t think he would have been top 2 here. Mister coffey is still a novice atm, and therefore the one to take out of the race. He would be in the ew mix again, this was a good renewal and he may not have 3 better ones to face than this year.. but we’re miles out and that’s an educated guess. tenzing, is still inexperienced, and novice himself atm, and he may well improve with another season, he just has a fair bit more to find.
I am maximus is not one that I see staying 4 miles atm for what it’s worth on those who are backing him and trying to make him out to be the next gaillard probably due to a speculative Irish national entry.
Day 1.
21 pts staked.
Returns 42.7pts
+21.7pts