I am going to obviously provide race cards for the 3 days for full content, that will be ready by 9 AM Each day, so youll obviously see what the results would be if i backed in every race. However it absolutely must be said that I personally will be betting very selectively at Aintree in a minimum ammount of races, and I could only advise to follow suit and bet responsibly, as the results can be carnage with horses backing up from Chelt and differing ground conditions from prior races.
Although you may well have a fair balance from cheltenham and could feesibly get stuck in here, long-term apart from 2021 where I put up a 66/1 SP winner in the foxhunters here on Day 1. Every profitable Aintree I have had, has been by deliberately cutting right back in the number of bets.
AINTREE Day 3. 1:45 – 6:20
1:45
This looks a simple as jonbon, and there are no prizes for that.
2:25
west balboa is off a good mark of 135. I backed her NRNB for thr coral cup for a reason, as I fancied her to go well in that. So she should be going well here. She should appreciate the 3 mile trip and I’d see no issues In that regard.
it’s not the most exciting write up unless she goes very well, as she’s absolutely common sense, and I see no alternative with equal claims at face value.
3:00
Dark raven will appreciate the step up in trip here and should find a little improvement for it. That puts him right in the mix, and if he was around 11/2 o would have pit him up ew, but he’s not, and you can see why, as he’s solid to be there abouts.
Hermes allen bombed in the ballymore which was the toughest race he’d ran in by an awful long way. To be fair to him, rather than regressing, I’d say that experience should stand to him, snd he’s in the mix. Which isnt a suprise when you look at his price, but he may drift.
Irish point comes In here fresh and his prior form dictates that he would have been in the mix for the minor places in the ballymore. That’s good form and he has EW claims here.
Everything has its price and the current one of 4/1 on Hermes allen is about right. I think that he will drift, and tour looking at 9/2 an possibly 5/1 EW with 4 places, and that’s the way I’d be going, assuming that will be accurate.
3:35
maries rock bombed in the mares after bolting up in the relkeel. Nico de boinville to be fair to him, positioned her fine in the mares and she was one who didn’t have a huge excuse and she didn’t perform on the day. The pace was far from ideal in turning in to a sprint, it wasn’t ran to suit, however the jockey was wise enough to it, and she’s not short of toe.
if teahupoo was in here id have gone his way, as it is, I’ll tentatively take a small ew chance on maries rock, and possibly wish i put more on if she made it look simple enough, however that’s no formality and that was a genuine dissapointing run last time.
4:15
midnight river has been crying out for 3 miles and he gets it here. Make no mistake, his jumping let him down in the plate, so he will need to jump better. However he’s the best of these in a battle off the bridle, he’ll get the trip with no bother, so again I see no alternative in my eyes, and I’d expect him to run well.
again im not a great fan of the fences in terms of from a betting perspective. Gaillard du mesnil and corach rambler would be my idea of 2 horses that should go nicely and give their riders a solid spin. The latter is probably where I’d have to just about go with a free bet, as he did me in the Ultima with no excuses, and only credit given. His mark is lenient, and gaillards is very fair. Corach will have to negotiate traffic but the main thing is that he stays, jumps, and is willing.
just to rule out the fav, ain’t that a shame I can’t see him getting the trip, he’s fav because a female rider is always popular with the wider public, and he’ll look good until the latter stages.
captain cody is a very stong traveller on the bridle. He very much looks a horse for right now rather than his long term future, and I expect him to be bang there going for home. He needs to find a shade more, and that’s literally a shade. He should be involved here with ms townend keeping the ride fairly after riding him previously.
Day 2. AINTREE 1:45 – 5:15 GOING GOOD TO SOFT
1:45
Gerri colombe is obviously the very obvious one, and I very much feel that he should have won the RSA, however I have no issue with the ride he was given. There were no excuses, he was tapped for toe and beat by a leader with a better cruising speed that wasn’t stopping. Now something can get first run on him and if they got an uncontested lead he could be done again, so it wouldn’t be a shock, however with that said, there’s nothing at face value to bowl along and slip the field, and there’s going to be less horses to negotiate and less distance between the leader and gerri colombe to make up, so he should get up and win here in theory.
2:20
no ordinary Joe ran a stormer in the Martin Pipe, and there looked to have been more unexposed horses to contend with there than the Coral cup, so he should be still ahead of his mark at this distance and he should be in the mix. Playful Saint would appreciate any rain and has been crying oit for the step up in distance here. I see what they’ve been doing while looking for a test of stamina over 2, however this will suit and he could show further improvement to be in the mix.
2:55
i think the market is right here in theory with inthepocket and found a fifty heading the betting. I was quite suprsied thy didn’t opt for the intermediate trip with inthepocket here at Aintree but this does look the easier of those 2 races so if I was able to see the fields at the time, I would have gone this way myself. He’s well In to the mix here on all known form.
Found a fifty is more lightly raced and he has a strong crusing speed which is his asset. He has plenty of class, he should be absolutely bang there, my only nagging reservation at all is what little he found in his bumper off the bridle, so he wouldn’t want a dog fight, and he has been fortunate enough with the entries here, with only inthepocket at face value, luccia with the allowance and perhaps no looking back, being nearer top tier, so he wouldn’t have many excuses in that regard.
I’d go inthepocket ew with 9/2 and 4 places available as I’m writing this. I’m adamant he’s a good horse with more to come. Will something get first run on him, maybe so. But they don’t look the strongest finishers, so he’ll have his chance.
3:30
it’s quite a trappy race this. Pic dorhy and hitman have the toe, but hitman for want if a better word is a dog off the bridle in a battle and you’d lay him all day at odds on in running. Fakir doudaries has been bang average all season, but he likes the set up of more fences to jump in this which brings him in to the race off the bridle. French dynamite and minella drama aren’t top tier but they get in a good rythym and jump and stay so if anything underperforms then they’re not out of it.
I’d have to go with pic dorhy and his crusing speed to get first run, kick, and potentially open up a gap that will be hard enough to peg back, for a horse like hitman who just doesn’t seem bothered about winning. I think Fakir will find this tougher and should run a lot better than he has this season, but may not quite get there this year. It could look initially easy for poc d’orhy but be tight enough very late up the run in, as fakir is coming and you’d perhaps be wanting the line to come sharply.
4:05
This isn’t a race I ever like tbh despite having a few winners in. its easy to get carried away and back a good few so ill mention just 1 who I won’t be backing.
haut en couleurs has the cruising speed and class, you’ll only find out during if he has the jumping required, as you either take to it or not. He’s top weight for a reason and deffinately the best horse in the race and over conventional fences I’d be confident, as it is, I wouldn’t be. I’d just hope he gets round without a significant mistake, and in the case he did, his cruising speed and tactical pace puts him in the mix. You could argue this is more about jumping than class, and that others are coming in off an easier time, though I fell in to that mistake in the fox hunters.
4:40
stayawayfay I’m obviously a fan of before and after the bartlett. He’s very strong off the bridle and at face value looked to have matured on the bridle after being open to significant improvement in that regard in his prior runs. He was always going to win that race from being bang there before finding and i was supremely confident in that. You cant however be supremely confident at this stage of the season off the back of so many bombing on their next start since. With that said, i would still have to take his case individually, and have to just about go his way ew now he’s a fair price. You absolutely wouldn’t want a battle with him on the run in at face value.
iroko is another as mentioned before the pipe that you just wouldn’t want a battle with on the run in, so if they both ran to form and managed to get a run in between them, then id like to see that play out with interest as you won’t find 2 stronger stayers. It’s just somewhat for a shame that there would be an easy excuse to not find this time after tough races.
gray dawning is fresh and well in to the mix. I ended up with the 2 in the barltett prior that I’d always planned to, however, if one of what was our 2 missed it, and he had ran, then he’d have been the ew replacement for stayaway fay or three card brag, so as a fresh horse that i saw prior claims in, that leaves him in the mix here at face value.
5:15
This is a very poor man’s county hurdle, and a bit of a desperate race to fill the card. Geronimo is running off a hurdles mark 5 pounds lower than his chase mark, he’s also got a further 5 pounds off his back via a claim though tbf most do in here. He’s been very prominent and kept at it with a good attitude in his small field chase runs, so he’s likely enough to be out of trouble on the front end.
If he gets in a good rythym then his attitude and his positioning dictates that he wont be disgraced here at around 40/1. Despite being well placed in small fields, that is still worthwhile as the experience and confidence that he’s obtained since last running over hurdles off a mark 5 pounds lower, is valuable enough to give him a wild chance.
Day 1
Manifesto Novices Chase
Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8
Price – 1 of the last 11 favourites have won, 10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 0 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before Aintree, 9/11 winners ran within the last 30 days
4/11 ran in the Arkle on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 0 placed
5/11 ran in the Marsh on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree , 1/11 winners had a previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous run over 19-21 furlongs, 5/11 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 10/11 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season
This isn’t the greatest renewal of the race imo, and I can’t see anything out of this going on and placing in the likes of the Ryanair next season other than the JLT winner stage Star.
Stage star is a very decent horse who I have always liked. he has good tactical pace, he gets in a good rythym, and he holds good claims in a reasonably competitive race. You wouldn’t really want him In a real dog fight coming off the back of Cheltenham where plenty have bombed at fairyhouse off the back of it, however he should be very prominent with a lead in to the final fence and now that he is settling over the trip, he should find enough to get it done. What you would say is that Saint roi has been getting his 2 miles very strongly so should get this fine, and what looks the biggest challenger in banbridge, comes in here as a fresh horse that has avoided the tough race at Cheltenham and they have been firing in all week at fairyhouse without fail. So id have to stick with stage Star, as id be confident that he’s the better horse who can make all and in theory would be as simple as that, however it’s not necessarily the best horse that will win this as seen over in iteland throughout the week. That said I’ll just make it plain and simple that I’d go stage Star with no excuses knowing that he’s had a tough race, I just wouldn’t be parting my cash which is all on the line in the fox hunters.
Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle
Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites have won, 7/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 5 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle , 10/11 at least placed on their last run, 9/11 winners ran within the last 40 days
6/11 winners ran in the Triumph on their last run, 3 of the 6 won, 3 placed
Previous Course Form – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/11 had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles,
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 144 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Zenta should make in to a nice staying type next season, and whether she will make it up to mares hurdle class we will see, but id be adamant thats her trip which is a start before she needs to find more in open class which somehat starts here. it obviously wouldn’t be a big shock if she wins this as fav, she was made plenty of use of a little earlier than id thought she’d be in the triumph, so despite her running an absolute stormer I don’t think what worked out as a sprint suited her and there should be more to come. Now I’m not sure this will suit her perfectly here either over 2m on a flat track so if she does win, which she may, it will be a good showing that you can mark up with more to come up in trip. I like her a lot as always mentioned when backing her at 66/1 for the triumph, I think she is obviously the likeliest winner so id have to go her way, even though my money will not be on.
Bo Zenith has won what have worked ojt nothing races over here and I wouldn’t be his greatest fan or fancy him in a battle off the bridle so id be avoiding him here even though he’s prominent in the market. I will be suprised if he manages to win.
Script writer bombed in the adonis entirely and had shown decent form prior to that, he aparrently dosen’t respond to the whip so will need to be ridden hands and heels and he’s a difficult ride as he dosent always jump entirely cleanly and take a straight line with momentum afger his hurdles. With that said he should show more on and off the bridle here than he did at kempton and he won’t be disgraced here, he could run well.
nusret jumps and stays and comes in here fresh, he’s no world beater but he would have no excuses here in terms of him avoiding the boodles to come here to to try and win this, if zenta fires he may struggle to win, but as mentioned prior, fresh horses were firing in at fairyhouse, so he’s as good a chance as any outside of her.
Jipcot was supplemented for the triumph which I felt was an awful call, now if he went straight here id have given him wild ew claims as the race can suit prominent horses should he be left alone out front. He’s 100/1, and it’s not impossible that he went out and just managed to stay in the mix for the places. His odds dictate he will be ran right out of it and he probably will be, I just don’t think it’s impossible that he pinches 3rd on a flat track by getting in a good position early and perhwps those in behind looking at each othe rather than the pace.
Betway Bowl Chase
Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 10
Price – 5 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 9/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1/11 winners won on their last run before the Bowl Chase, 10/11 winners had their last run within the last 46 days
6/11 winners ran in the Gold cup on their last run, 0 of the 6 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 9/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 9/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners had a rating of 158 or higher
Graded Wins – 11/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/11 had at least 2 wins in a grade 1-3 race, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
Season Form – 11/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 8/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
Conflated is a horse that has always been riddled with talent and has put it together for some time now. This trap and trip suits, He rsn a stormer in the gold cuo and in this last season when beaten by a fresh clan des obeaux. He was also likely set for second in the ryanair when coming down when beaten by a very smart horse in allaho so hes the horse I always said he would be, and he’s bang in the mix. IF there were 8 runners here my money would have been on ew, unfortunately there’s not, so it isn’t.
Bravemansgame ran an absolute stormer in the gold cup and this track and trip looks ideal on paper so im not sure why he bombed here entirely last season. That would certainly be on the mind, but I was very impressed with him last time and he dismissed ehat was a prior fact of him not performing in the spring. He’s the one to beat and eith a free bet I’d go his way. My money won’t be on him.
I couldn’t have a Plus tard here at all, and the remaining real hope on paper would be shiskin.
Now I thought shiskin ran a stormer in the Ryanair. I wasn’t dissapointed and I’d have happily backed him for next years renewal but for him looking gold cup bound by the trainer. They seem absolutely convinced that he now wants 3 miles. Im not sure myself, and i feel that they have made a considerable over reaction post race after what was a very winnable opportunity going narrowly by the way side. I won’t dismiss him here at all, I’m just not sure what to expect. Stating the obvious he could win or bomb.
Aintree Hurdle
Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 2 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Aintree Hurdle , 11/11 winners ran within the last 30 days
8/11 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle on their last run, 2 of the 8 won, 3 placed
3/11 winners ran in the Stayers on their last run, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 4/11 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 9/11 winners had at least 10 runs over hurdles, 11/11 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 4 wins over hurdles
Rating – 11/11 winners were rated 158 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 9/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 race, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
Most will be excited to see him, but for me looking at betting angles, its deffinately the most boring race of the day, and constitution Hill wins before going chasing.
Rose Paterson Open Hunters Chase
Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 10 or older
Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 5/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Rose Paterson Open Hunters Chase, 10/11 winners ran within the last 40 days
5/11 winners ran in the Fox Hunters on their last run, 2 of the 5 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/11 had at least 1 previous wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 14 previous chase runs, 9/11 winners had at least 3 previous chase wins
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 121 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
I’d like to think that I have a pretty good handle on this, and on paper it looks pretty stright forward in terms of the best 3 horses being winged leader, famous clermont and latenightpass. The first 2 you could switch round who’s the very best depending on if famous clermont had a brilliant round of jumping. If he did theres not much in it, but that’s also not often the case with him, so I have factored that in
Latenightpass is a solid type, he has jumped round here well for the past 2 years, he travels well enough, he has stamina, he won’t lack for his jockey, and he has been targetted at this race all season. He has a very solid EW chance here, however his win price attached isn’t the value it has been as this is tougher than his usual renewal. There’s better opposition than cousin pascal and cat tiger was.
For winged leader This has always been his target all season He jumps and travels well and should have no issue with this drop back in trip. He has had a good prep that hasn’t taken mich out of him, he is very solid and he should go very well here. He should give a sterner test for last year’s winner latenightpass and I have zero doubts that he could win this.
famous clermont is the danger. He will love this trip and he’d go very well with a very credible win chance, though he can clout one and this is a test of jumping here, even though the fences aren’t quite what they were. I’ll be watching him during and I don’t wish any horse to fall or blunder, but I’ll be thinking were more solid and that famous clermont has either already had something taken ojt of him, or be due a mistake on all known form if we were head to head with him coming towards home with a few to jump. If you like a risky one and the current or morning prices on winged leader are not for you, then win only on this lad would give you a thrill and a chance.
Red Rum Handicap Chase
Age – 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7 and 9
Price – 1 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 2/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weight – 9/11 winners weighed between 10st 5lbs and 11st 1lbs
Last Run – 1 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Red Rum Handicap Chase, 9/11 winners ran within the last 34 days
Previous Course Form – 6/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 2/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 9 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 8/11 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 11/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 1 previous chase win, 6/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 11/11 winners were rated 132 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 5 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
I wouldn’t be a big fan of this race and there’s nothing without a chance so i wont encourage backing a few in this. Paythepiper is in stong form and is consistent. He’s on a career high mark but deserves to be, he will be in the mix here.
Nickel Coin Mares NH Flat Race
Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5
Price – 1 of the last 11 favourites have won, 4/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 5 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Nickel Coin Mares NHF, 9/11 winners ran within the last 34 days
Previous Course Form – 0/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 0/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/11 had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous NHF Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 NHF runs, 10/11 winners had at least 1 NHF win
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 105 or higher
Graded Wins – 0/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
Dysart enos has been solid all season and will be in the mix here. There are plenty of unexposed ones and she could run well and be 4th -6th here but she has the experience, you know what you will get in terms of she travels and stays and you’d get a good run for your money.
I’ll just mention July flower as a grade 1 winner in France off a light Weight. She is 2 / 2. Travels well and looks uncomplicated. Her franchise races were over short of 2 miles so she’d be used to opening up earlier, she could travel very well open up and get done by something with stamina and a ptp background like the fav, or by Dysart enos, but you could also see her winning. I’d just say iv seen 2 geldings with simular profiles run in the male version previously and they’ve both bombed, so it’s hard to know w the final result will be on her. If she was a bigger price I may have chanced her, as it is I’d go with the solid Dysart enos.
AINTREE DAY 1
Aintree Festival race card