The chelt bets thread is self explanatory with selections and reasoning, so I have used last seasons weeks ahead thread, which may be useful as an example of how this thread works, as we have a few very welcome new members for the season ahead.
If ANY one has any interest in becoming a member of any of our services for the future, please free to use the contact form, Live Chat, Email or PM me.
In terms of the daily bets, the current results are as below.
Staking this year has been adjusted to align with any future affordability legislation at the very responsible level of between 0.25 pts to an absolute maximum of 4 pts total outlay, which is usually a couple of times a year occasion. The max bets this year was a very confident 2 pts EW on Walbank at 6/1 on his debut, and 2pts EW on Lady Princess at longchamp. Despite my confidence in walbank in a maiden, unfortunately he finished 2nd while running in to the very smart Noble Style. Lady princess bolted up, without any worry in running.
The worst position we have been in at any point during the running total for this years flat season is -2.2pts, and we haven’t looked back in to the negative since.
The worst overall total position that the Daily bets has ever been in since the 3rd of June 2020 is -5 PTS Total, with that over all total never going in to the negative, in over 2 years since.
Rather than there being any fancy layout, statistics, or historical results and trends… It would be all about me getting our selections in to the markets at the right prices, and being as selective as possible while relying on my own very sound judgement.
I absolutely wouldn’t be getting random bits of information about “sure fire winners”. However i also absolutely wouldn’t be afraid to make my case and double check my own opinion with connections where at all possible.
Please feel free to read the weeks ahead from last season, left in a raw form.
The weeks ahead…..
Fingers crossed for day 4, and what ever the total results, there will be absolutely no excuses.
If I hadn’t been selective, it could have been carnage, and that’s why i always mention being selective trusting the bets, and not going scatter gun. . So with that said, It will be under my initial hopes if I don’t hit on Friday and there would be no excuses. I have purposely stacked the day with solid chances, from limited selections. I suspect that You almost certainly will have State Man and you may have Hollow Games on top. I hold hope alright.
You may have already done this, however I fell asleep, and didn’t wake up in time to make sure it was the case on the preview live.
GINTO goes for the bartlett as I have thought all season, and APARRENTLY that may well see hollow games dropping In to the pipe, as I had also thought prior to his last run, and was to potentially be the case throughout the season.
So if you already haven’t, you’d want to be cashing out atleast your stake at the 33/1 with 364 on HOLLOW GAMES for the bartlett
I’d strongly assume that almost all, will have already backed ginto for the bartlett, as I have mentioned him strongly in the weeks ahead from when he was 66/1, all the way down throughout the season.
He is the one i think is by far the most likely winner of the bartlett.. even for those that have asked about him in the last few days and weeks.
so If anyone hasn’t backed him for the bartlett for whatever reason, then I would cash out all of hollow games, and roll over that cash-out on to ginto for the Bartlett. Likewise assuming your already on Ginto, then you may decide to roll that on to hollow games for the pipe if you haven’t indeed backed him for that when he was double the price.
Please note, that HG now looks to be the right price for the pipe, rather than being outstanding value.
three stripe life for the ballymore 12/1 EW NrNB. Hills.
Three Stripe Life EW NRNB for the Supreme at 20/1 (hills/sky)
Under a complete assumption that sir G goes to the ballymore for what wouldnt look too far off a penalty kick. Three stripe Life is one that I personally think should have been in the Ballymore, however, I wouldn’t want to be taking on Sir Gerhard myself, so I don’t blame if they stay here. He was one that iv never really rated however hes a big improver imo. He was held right up, missed a hurdle to put him on the back foot, and switched wide late when beaten by mighty potter, imo he is the better horse, and should have won. Three stripe life came forward from that run next time, I would fully expect him to finish in front of mighty potter, and there Is absolutely no disgrace in being beaten last time by what I believe to be the best irish novice hurdler by a fair margin. I personally think Sir Gerhard should have ran here, and he should have won, so Three stripe life, although not a superstar, is an improver with substance to his form, and he would have a reasonable EW chance here in a field that may well eventually cut up to around 9.
In summary, I havent backed, nor would be willing to back Dysart Dynamo or constitution Hill at current or near recent odds because neither have any substance to their form. Either or both may well run away with this, but if that’s the case, so be it. Jonbon does have some substance to his form, he’s a strong stayer at the trip and he should be thereabouts. El Fabiolo and Three stripe life are both priced fairly, and it would be no suprise to see either of them being able to spoil the party and get in to the mix here, in what I see as a pretty open enough race in contrast to the odds.
Just to note, with Gaelic obviously being our main bet, and in summary, i am happy with day 1 to be left as it stands. We have some live chances at big prices in competitive races, and i have created the opportunity for you to be able to lay off stakes and free roll if you so wished. So fingers crossed, it’s plausible that we may get off the mark, with the NH chase being our best shot.
jett was beaten fair and square by a very solid yardstick, and it was a real good race to find out what his win claims were, I know the yard have Maitree Express already qualified for chelt, so I would be hoping that Jett skips the race for Aintree, with the other lad already waiting in the wings, which was my thinking beforehand should he not pass what was a real test. I’d far rather find out now
Prengarde is entered up Sunday. He gets in off his hurdle mark of 127, and it matters little how he runs in a 2m handicap hurdle. He ran as you’d expect a 4 mile cross country horse to run, in a 2m handicap hurdle.
26Feb22 Fairyhouse)(Grd 3) iberique Du Seuil (124 To be 100% honest, I’m half hoping that iberique gets easily beaten and dosen’t get in to the boodles, as im happy with our other, and he’s the only one of our handicap bets, that I would probably cash, if I could. However I’ll happily take what would be somewhat of a suprise. I am also hoping that icare allen wins, as he has a legitimate EW chance in the Triumph, and would be a danger to all in the boodles, if played that way. This was a smart run from icare allen, he has improved with each and every run, he will now likely have a mark approaching 140, and won’t be far away in the Triumph. Whether his opening mark will now effect the boodles mark of the tide turns , I’m not sure. Iberique may or may not get in to the boodles, he will be very lightly weighted if so, and his form was arguably franked here by the 3rd.
20Feb22 Nav2m. 5f. S 5y+ H (36K)(Grd 2)Grand Roi147 one for the coral cup, so im sure he will be ridden accordingly. That was a good run, he wasnt knocked about, and he will have a decent chance in the Coral Cup off what should be a reasonable mark.
19Feb22 Gow2m. S 4y+ H (30K)(Grd 3)Teahupoo149 hopefully he wins this and goes for the CH. Should he not, he’d have a massive chance in the Coral Cup. The tide turns is being laid out for the boodles, and would look to be gordons no1. That was a lovely run from Teahupoo, there was no messing around, and everyone knows that iv always rated him very highly and I didn’t put him up just to have a runner in the CH. He is as good as anything behind Honeysuckle, he will stay all the way to the line, and he should have his say in the champion hurdle. As also mentioned prior, the tide turns had a good prep for the boodles, he already has his entry on Monday to check his mark, and without doubt, he would look to be gordons best chance in that race.
17Feb22 Clonmel 2m. 2f. H 5y+ MdnHdl (10K)Hors Piste 10-13 P Townend shes a nice horse. this is the right trip, I would expect her to win this race well, where she will be likely a 16/1 or 20/1 shot for the Mares Nov with EW claims. She is currently 66/1 with unibet. She’s undoubtedly a nice horse, she has always been rated very highly by Emanuel Clayeux and although there will be tougher days ahead, she’s a good one that’s been under rated, via a previous run over a trip when unfit.
17Feb22 Clo3m. H 5y+ H (35K)(Grd 3)Mr Fred Rogers 11-3 D N Russell132. He’s a very nice horse that I expect to go for the pipe after this, he has a nice mark for the race, and hopefully the loss of gerri colombe in the bartlett,will make no difference. He had a big handicap pot in him for sure, though that seems absolutely irrelevant right now, my thoughts are with connections. I’m saddened to say that from updates I have been searching for, I fear the worst.
Choice of words, is one I have been thinking about since her run against Journey with me, as I rate the 3rd pinkerton too, another 2f and journey with me would have only won by further as he was opening up while hitting the line, but it was a nice run for a mare, and they are absolutely no mugs behind her. I have no idea why she didn’t run her race behind party Central, but she definitely didn’t, because her runs either side of that race are far superior. Choice of words may be targeting the grade 1 at fairyhouse over 2 and a half miles, or she may go to chelt, I’m not sure. Dino blue, brandy love, and allegorie de vassy will be tough to beat, But at 40/1, I think its right that i atleast mention her to keep an eye on.
Naas 4.30 12th.. Hunters Steeplechase of €13,500.00. Billaway will come forward from his seasonal debut, he should be going extremely close here, and this will put Billaway straight for the fox hunters in terms of race fitness. I’m very happy with billaway here, he has obviously come on for the run, and will do so again, Ask D man is no mug and iv been watching him for a good while. The cheek pieces used for the first time herenon billaway, are only going to enhance his claims further.
12th 4.00 Naas Opera Hat Mares Steeplechase (Listed) of €25,000.00 5-y-o plus 2m. This trip is too short for elimay, so she will come forward from this at chelt, however I’d be expecting her to go well enough here, and this will put her spot on for chelt, in terms of race fitness. I’m delighted with that run, it wasn’t the company she was in but it was the way she travelled on the bridle with the cheek pieces attached, she jumps beautifully and finds a whole load off the bridle, so what the cheek pieces have done, is allow here to be there on the scene, with what she finds off the bridle yet to come.
Naas 1.40 Sat, 12th Feb, 1m 7f 131yds MdnHdl now forgive me if you decide to back GOVEN and he ends up being a NR, but I have to put it out there, now that I see what I have been thinking all season, could become reality, with this entry. He needs to win this upcoming race to get in, and if I have been right, then he will, if I’m wrong, he won’t. GOVEN is a 50/1 shot with unibet for the County Hurdle, I have thought all season that he is being laid out for it… I couldn’t get a nrnb price that I wanted.. so it would be your own call, as I’d be happy with our 2. He’s gone and done exactly what I thought he was going to do.. and let’s hope he completes the job. He had a lot left in the tank.
There will likely still be a small ammount of bets prior to the tapes going up, but just to give a fair example of what sort of hand we/ you should be going in with, from this thread and the Chelt bets.. (obviously if you have the likes of JWM on top of that, as a personal bet for the bally…. you’d have enhanced your hand).
- Haut En Couleurs Arkle 33/1
- Death Duty Ultima 16/1
- Teahuoo CH 20/1 EW NRNB
- Stormy Ireland 8/1 / Echoes in rain 12/1 Mares
- Gaelic Warrior 25/1 / Iberique 25/1
- Stattler 7/1 / RWF 15/2+ National Hunt Chase
- Three stripe Life 12/1 EW NRNB
- Capodanno 7/1 NRNB
- Grand roi 16/1 / saint felicien 14/1 coral
- Prengarde 20/1/ Easysland 5/1 x country
- Andy Dufresne 16/1 NRNB G. Annual
- Redemption day 14/1 (Facile V 20s /A.Mike 20s)
- Bob olinger 25/1 Marsh.
- Dunboyne 14/1 / Sire de berlais 16/1 pertemps
- Flooring Porter 8/1 stayers
- Grand Paradis 16/1
- Frontal Assault 25/1/ Ain’t that a shame 8/1 EW Kim muir.
- (Dino blue 25/1) Mares Nov
- Vauban 25/1 / icare Allen 33/1 EW NRNB. Triumph
- My Mate mozzie 20/1 EW NRNB (State Man) County
- (Ginto 50s+) Bartlett
- A plus tard 10/1 Gold Cup
- Billaway 8/1 Fox Hunters
- Elimay 9/2 Mares chase
- Chemical Energy 16/1
- Ballyadam Arkle 40/1
- Appreciate it
- kilkruit bally 14/1
- Gerri colombe ANY
- Mr Fred Rodgers M pipe 25/1
- Galopin de Champs RSA 8/1
- Echoes in rain 20/1 County
- Allegorie de vassy 25/1 Mares Nov
10Feb22 Thu2m. G 5y+ S (11K)Gentleman de Mee This would be Gentlemen De mee’s 3rd run to get his mark. He’s a nice horse, and he would go very well in the Grand Annual, which I personally think has been the plan all season. That was a lovely run, from gentlemen de mee who has been well placed, he looks another good early call for the handicaps, he looks to have been laid out for the Grand annual, and should he go, he will have his chance.
The next port of call will be the DRF Race Cards, and that will be in its own thread, when completed.
We won’t be miles away from our final hand now, our NRNB horses will cut up and complement yours/ our Ante-post selections… and the horses we have mentioned well throughout the season in this thread.
Gordon has entered Saint Felicien at Musselburgh for the handicap mark check… its pure stupidity that 365 have pushed him out NRNB, so feel free to have a small top up on him.. at 16s for both.. (county/ Coral)
01Feb22 Lim2m. YS 4y+ MdnHdl (10K)State Man 11-12 Richard Deegan(3) he’s a nice horse, and I think that they are going to be clever, and go down the handicap route.. i am not happy with the current prices for that route, but I will keep an eye on him, and time will tell. He’s a nice horse and did it well, time will tell where he goes, and he could even have another race in-between.. I’m happy with the handicappers we have atm, and I’m not looking to build “books”, so I’m sure you may or may not have decided to cover him yourself for the various handicap routes, as per his numerous strong mentions on here. If he went handicapping, you’d really fancyhis chances, He clearly wouldn’t be disgraced down the Graded route.
31Jan22 Pun2m. Y 5y+ MdnHdl (12K)Kilcruit 12-0 P Townend kilkruit was a poor bet by me for the Ballymore. so Hopefully he can get back on track here, and that may give us options. I personally think that he may be too high profile to handicap, but obviously he would be very popular if he went that way. Which would be the county or pipe. That was decent by kilkruit, he shaped like he wanted dropping down to 2 miles last time when beaten by a couple of useful ones. I would say that the supreme would be the race for him and that may be pretty likely where he will go, and Ofcourse they would have the option of the county, where he would go nicely.
30Jan22 Naa2m. 3f. Y 5y+ MdnHdl (15K)The Nice Guy and ramillies, would both look to be a pair of potential Albert bartlett horses, and are both entered for that race, and the ballymore. It wouldn’t be a suprise should either/or manage to get themselves in to the mix. They pretty much ran as I thought they would, the pair look to be in the mix for the Albert bartlett.
30Jan22 Naa3m. Y 5y+ NovCh (30K)(Grd 3)Stattler this may be tough for stattler at this stage of the season, should Runwildfred decide to take him on here… what ever he does, he should improve upon for the experience. Run Wild Fred would be the one to beat, should he run here… which he may, or may not. That couldn’t have gone any better, and we have a fine hand here, as I did think we had prior. I’m glad I made the fairly brave call on stattler after his first run, as I did potentially see him over shorter beforehand… The RWF call, of cashing cappo and rilling it iver on to him, does look a good one also, taking In to account what is now the exchange price of cappo. All in all, win or lose, I’m happy with the hand and my thought process on this race, throughout the season.
29Jan22 Fai2m. 2f. Y 4y+ H (29K)(Grd 3)Brandy Love brandy love may win this, she’s a smart horse and a definite danger to Allégorie and Dinoblue. However I’m hoping that she’s the one to win here, rather than Allégorie, as the 5 pounds penalty could be the kiss of death. However if allegorie wins, so be it. This diddnt work out ideal, obviously she’s a cracking bet, as is dinoblue, I would have a lot of respect for brandy love going left handed without the penalty… but iv done my job, and we have a solid chance.
27Jan22 Gow2m. S 4y NHF (10K)Mercurey 11-9 Mr P W Mullins he’s aparrently a useful bumper horse, as a 4yo I would say that he’s likely to follow the 4yo program and go down the Belle Metal route, rather than chelt, which would be logical. However this is a complete guess, so he could bolt up, and a word of caution In terms of chelt prospects. He was good, I don’t think he beat much, but the manner of victory was good. Should he go to chelt as a 4yo, with the others that Willie has, that will be a tip in itself, so you’d certainly want to be on at the 12s NRNB. If you’ve followed the weeks ahead, we’ve mentioned just 4 bumper horses, all well in advance of their runs, and all being at their highest prices. They are now the top 4 in the market.. so you should have a good hand here.. whether you end up with all 4, or a mixture, you’ll be in with a decent shot.
4:15 Chelt. Super Alloys Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 2m1f. If you haven’t backed gaelic warrior at 25s “Any”, as put up by myself extremely early on for this exact reason.. then go in for the boodles at 20/1…. preferably using 365… his mark is 129 so he should skip this, and straight to the boodles.
23Jan22 Thu2m. 4f. GY 5y+ NovCh (50K)(Grd 2)Minella Melody 11-2 Rachael Blackmore you would want to be hovering over her for the Mares chase.. she has had a set back, and it was and still is the plan as far as I’m aware. I have personally always thought that she will make a very good chaser, and that this will be her game… so we will find out here, if that’s somewhat accurate.. as this is a fair ask for a chase debut, with there being a straight line to concertista.
I would be weary of backing before with cash-out as she would potentially have to be winning a fair ask, or your bet may be suspended indefinitely. That was a decent run, you wouldn’t want to be backing her off that, but it was a fair effort and should she get another run in and win, its plausible. However as mentioned, you definitely wouldn’t want to be on her right now.
23Jan22 Thu3m. Y 5y+ S (10K)Billaway Billaway would have a favourites chance both here, and in the fox hunters, where 8/1 ,was daylight robbery. He ran OK for a seasonal debut.. and was against race fit rivals. I would expect him to come forward from this run. I had read prior to this race that the winner is/ was likely to skip chelt for Aintree, with the same yards Vaucelet was/is to be the one going to chelt
Gerri colombe if anyone has personally backed him for the bally, you’d want to be cashing out… i was very happy with the run here, and off the back of that, id have had him fav for the Martin pipe and having a solid chance in the bartlett. Which aparrently is where he goes, with no 3rd run in between.
22Jan22 Nav2m. YS 4y+ H (16K)Pied Piper and ebasari are notable for the Boodles, but go steady, as there will be a 3rd run later to qualify, and that would be the better time to back, as you’d have an idea of the mark… rather than backing blind now. That was a terrible run from Ebasari with no games played.. the best of gordons for the boodles atm imo.. are Iberique and Doctor Churchill.. however Pied Piper could well come to the forefront over the pair of them, and would be of interest with a 2nd run soon, and a potential 3rd run, which is needed down the line.
19Jan22 New2m. GS 4y+ H (7K)4Walking On Air 11-0 N de Boinville4 he could possibly be a ballymore type of horse. He runs in a race at Newbury that I respect, and i had been awaiting the entries of. I wouldn’t go over board until i see him run.. as hendo thinks everything wins a grade 1 Nov.. but it’s not impossible. He was very impressive, i’d heard a bit beforehand, however I obviously wanted to see it to make sure.. and I sure did…. so hopefully most if not all were prepared, and managed to get on in the 40/1 ball park.
16Jan22 Pun2m. 7f. S 5y+ HcapCh (16K)Glenloe 12-1 Mr D O’Connor129 Glenloe has now halved in price for the Kim muir in a few hours. His uk mark is 135, and I’d want to see him going well enough here. His connections don’t need to be told what they’re doing, so he shouldn’t be absolutely hosing up. This was a very poor race and one which I wanted glenloe to win, as his mark wouldn’t be altered much if anything. Its not the same as running in a better race, dropping in and placing. In summary, it was an OK run in a poor race, and that wouldn’t be what I like. I’d rather something win well in poor company, or run that race, however against far better opposition. So i want to see the Novices, that run behind the main Graded horses..
16Jan22 Pun2m. 4f. S 5y+ NovCh (35K)(Grd 3)Capodanno 11-3 M P Walsh Bob ollinger gets his test, and I’d be hopeful that he comes through with flying colours, and heads off to the Marsh. This isn’t an ideal race for capodanno with the NH chase in mind, however there’s still an awful long time left, so no need to panic right now. Mass panic leads to the suspension of cash-out, and there’s no need to cash now, so hopefully everyone can work together, and wait until the last moment. Bob was very good and I’d be hopeful that he wins the Marsh, capodanno ran a stormer and I’d be hoping he goes for the Ten up next.
16Jan22 Pun2m. S 5y+ H (36K)(Grd 2)Dysart Dynamo 11-4 P Townend Dysart Dynamo could be the ballymore fav by the weekend, he beat absolutely nothing on debut, in a good manner. This is a bit of a step up for him. He has matured, so he is open to going up in distance. I wouldn’t particularly put anyone off, however ideally, I have always wanted to atleast see the final decs of the 2m6 race at the DRF before making any final call on the Ballymore. Fwiw I’m also interested to see where they go with Gerri Colombe who i thought was reasonably impressive in poor company over christmas. Whether he targets chelt or fairyhouse, he also needs to step up in company on route. El fabs target is the supreme, but IF he ran Sir G close enough at the DRF, its plausible they could split one for the bally, with a 2nd in that race, likely to be better form than a win in this Moscow flyer. . He has not beaten much but he was very impressive, likewise constitution Hill prior. Whether he goes supreme or ballymore, I am not willing to guess, and it could even be the on the day markets for the service, in both the supreme and Bally.. as I don’t want to get involved in a guessing game with plenty of other races to make hay in
Saturday 15th January 15:00 GOOD BYE SAM (FR)6yo+ Maiden Aghabullogue
Sunday 16th January 14:00 GOOD BYE SAM (FR)6yo+ Geldings MaidenTurtulla
Good bye sam is trained by Willie, in the colours of appreciate it, and i have been adding him to the foxhunters market. His entries have now come through for his point to point. He has a good profile, and His French form is decent, so although he may or may not be one for next year, we will see if he goes particularly well, and i will update below if he wins or loses… across the 2 wins that he will need to qualify. so don’t get carried away with 1. He finished 2nd on his first start, and imo he could be one for the longer term.
just on the supreme. The 2 at the front have beaten nothing at all impressively, as has Sir Gerhard and El fabiolo. The reason I haven’t put up sir G is that as far as I’m aware, himself and El fab, are and were always going to face off in the 2m at the DRF. So although El Fab will be an outsider, I want to see that first, before I act on anything. It could be fairly tightly ran and they’re split, or ofcourse Sir G could win and go short….
08Jan22 San2m. 3f. S 4y+ H (25K)1Gauloise1381 this is the perfect race to find out what the chances are of gauloise winning the Mares hurdle, this is as tough, if not tougher than the race that the likes of Tellmesomethinggirl was in, with martello sky looking the chief danger in here, and I’d be suprised if she wouldn’t have gone very close in that race. I have just put up Stormy I and I could see her getting them all at it, as there looks to be no stars in the mares. But if there’s a future one, it could potentially be Gauloise. At this stage, I’d prefer her over the bunch in the Irish race just ran. It was very testing conditions and Gauloise was looked after, it was a disspointing run. The winner is very tough, and as mentioned prior, she has outside place claims in a Mares hurdle. I will also add, its also important to know when your wrong, in watching back Christmas and over all, I had been previously harsh on Tellmesomethinggirl. I wouldn’t give anything else out of that race much chance, however she has valid claims herself as the race stands. She should have won by a length at christmas having been closed out, taking In to account the weight, then she’s a 3 or 4L winner imo. At the start of the season I knew there was chat at hendos about Epatante who was likely to drop in to the mares, she has now ran and won twice and goes for the champion. Concertista looks to be going for the Chase, so The Mares race is now weak and competitive, I will be hoping that Stormy Ireland makes all, and she’s very capable in this field. Tellmesomethinggirl will be the main danger out of the pack.
06Jan22 Clo2m. 3f. H 5y+ H (11K)Classic Getaway 11-5 on his bumper run, this lad looks an Albert bartlett type to me, and of all of Willie’s, I’d have always have had him at the early top of the pecking order for that race. The ballymore looks open enough, so you absolutely couldn’t rule that out entirely, I have re watched back his ptp a few times, and taking In to account that his bumper was on heavy ground and he was green, he could somewhat suprise here and show more toe here over obstacles. The Big Getaway came out at this time of year looking an AB type, had 2 runs and went to the ballymore, Classic Getaway was impressive in his PTP and may well do the same. In summary I wouldn’t particularly put anyone off, however i will be able to make a more informed opinionduring and after his run. FWIW with my own compiled odds, I’d have Sir Gerhard in the supreme, journey with me in the Ballymore, and Ginto in the Albert bartlett as the favs of the 3 novice hurdles at what is still an early stage with a lot more to prove, and absolutely all to play for. He Ran a decent race here, he is still quite green, and should come forward, the lad who won is pretty good. I would say C.G looks more of a 2 and a half mile horse
06Jan22 Clo2m. H 4y+ MdnHdl (10K)Dinoblue 11-1 I have mentioned her well prior to this, she’ll be well able to jump, i highly respect where she came from, and if she bolts up, she’ll be right up there in the market for the Mares Nov. In terms of complete ability, id be guessing, and I’ll have to watch her, and react quickly if she won and won well. So be prepared, and don’t wait for me. I was very happy with the run here, I backed during her run at 25s and 20s and I’m sure many did as per the original post before her run, that will be me done for the race, with her and Allegorie de vassy.
Frontal assault is one that I have been watching closely, and as mad as it may seem, I’m pretty sure that he is the Kim Muir horse. I like him alot, He has been ran over a trip too short, and is going to improve considerably for the step up in trip later on. He has an impending entry here over 3 miles, however There is a 2m5 novice chase on the undercard of the solerina Mares hurdle and he may skip this, and that is where I am expecting to see him to get his 3rd run to save his improvement for the step up in trip later in the kim muir. So keep an eye out, if someone could add him to the market with 365. . I may or may not wait for NRNB.
02Jan22 Naa2m. 4f. H 5y+ H (85K)(Grd 1)Hollow Games 11-12 D N Russell I wasn’t massively impressed by hollow games on his last start, and he’d need to show some Improvement to be winning here. I’d say that Ginto is the one to beat, so it’s no surprise that he has gone in to favouritism for tomorrow’s race. Iv looked at every angle, and there is a chance that Ginto could go down the ballymore route, now if I’m being picky, iv noticed that he’s inclined to jump out to the right, so not particularly here, but over the same trip later with more pace on and pressure on him, he may revert to type, and it would be enough to make me think that he would have to be very, very good to win the ballymore on his engine alone. So for that reason, I’ve passed on him, and I’d suggest his better chance would be to go for the bartlett, or if he lost,the M pipe against lesser opposition. Hollow games needs to suprise me here and go particularly well, I’m hoping that he’s lazy, and will find more, however I’m not thinking that he will, until I see it. Therefore it could be Ginto AB, and hollow games for the pipe.
Whatdeawant looks a bartlett type to me that will go to the ballymore, as the owners sponsor the race, and they sent another bartlett type there previously (longhouse poet). In summary I don’t think this is the greatest renewal of the race, Ginto and whatdeawant both find generously off the bridle and are staying types, I think hollow games has been over rated on what he has achieved, so I hope I’m wrong and he shows more. This race went exactly as I thought it would, they all look bartlett / M pipe horses, though obviously whatdeawant will still likely go for the ballymore.
As mentioned throughout the season from 66s down, ginto is a nice stayer, and I’d personally go for the bartlett, hollow games ran well enough, and could also go there or the pipe
El fabiolo is one that i I think I have already given a good hint to on here.
El fabiolo is 50/1 for the supreme with Hills An enquiry in to bronn has lead to El Fabiolo’s prospects as being a little more than slightly hopeful. So Let’s hope that he’s pretty good. He Ran nicely at Auteuil in the Prix Finot, a race in which Min previously finished 4th, and has provided some fine horses down the years. Looking back, he was on the long list for the horses to follow, before I cut him, due to his SP for that race being 88/1. Now it looks like I could well have done so prematurely, he has had plenty of time to acclimatise to his new yard, and was set to run over Christmas in the race won by Hen see. El fabiolo is one that I would absolutely not put any one off taking a small chance on. Hopefully everyone listened and is on him.I fully assume that almost everyone’s on at 50s, and if not, would have seen the 33s with PP and may well choose to back him.
I’m yet to rush in to the race, in terms of advising a bet for the service,
Iv backed el fab myself at 50s, and as mentioned, i would absolutely not put anyone off.
02Jan22 Naa1m. 7f. S 5y+ MdnHdl (14K)Bronn is a 100/1 shot for the supreme, he had a tall reputation with the Crawfords, his bumper has just worked out well, and after some enquiries, I was reading too much in to it, with him not expected to be the best novice of those in the doubleGreen, so he will very likely be down the pecking orderoverall.
01Jan22 Fai2m. 4f. Y 5y+ MdnHdl (12K)Hubrisko 12-0 S F O’Keeffe hubrisko could be a nice type, please refer to the horses to follow, I’m not too worried about the trip for now, he may well be avoiding el fabiolo for now. I pretty much knew what was going to happen beforehand.
01Jan22 Fai2m. 5f. YS 5y+ S (13K)Jungle Boogie he is lightly raced, but he has done plenty of schooling over fences, and I’m lead to belive that he jumps nicely. Jungle Boogie may well be an EW prospect for the Marsh Novices chase. He looks a proper one as I had heard, and thought he may well be beforehand, that was impressive. If we wasnt on bob, I’d have certainly put this lad up, and he has very valid ew claims. I like him.
01Jan22 Fai2m. 2f. YS 4y+ H (13K)Allegorie De Vassy was bought out of the same race as Benie Des Dieux, and has moved to closutton with what is already a strong profile for novice Mares races. This is where I expect Allegorie de vassy to run and I’d be very hopeful that she can win this. She was very good, as expected. There will be tougher days ahead.
01Jan22 Tra2m. S 5y+ MdnHdl (10K) El Fabiolo is a nice type, see above. He was very good, hopefully he will be my supreme horse, with tougher days ahead.
01Jan22 Tra2m. 5f. S 5y+ MdnHdl (10K)Hors Piste 10-13 P Townend I’m absolutely fine with the trip here, and she’s avoiding El Fabiolo, which I’m happy about. She is a fine Mares novice hurdle prospect, and I expect her to go very well here. Happy with the run From hors piste here, she travelled beautifully and ran in the much tougher race than allegorie. This was a very solid introduction. she likely returns to 2 miles in Mares nov company, and bolts up. I have half an eye on JPs Dino Blue whi will run on the 6th as mentioned prior, so if someone can please add her to the market…. right now, that’s the only thing stopping me re-backing hors piste at 50s.
31Dec21 Pun1m. 7f. Y 3y MdnHdl (12K)Vauban 11-2 vauban has indeed been declared, I liked him from France, I gave him a very good write up a few months ago in the Members horses to follow, and Rightly or wrongly, I’m excited to see what he can do.
Gordon spent a lot of money on pied piper, and there are others off the flat in here, so Vauban will have decent opposition and I couldn’t be completely confident that his flat form will translate. I was happy with the run of vauban here, we have a live one, as mentioned pied piper is a smart horse, and I’d say vauban would have won but for the last. Both will improve, and were well clear of the rest. Overall a good debut for vauban.
1.45 The main thing I take from this, is that patrick isn’t on bacardys or ontheropes. You could argue that this looks like a bunch of NHC horses going for grade 1 honours over 3 miles. whether the likes of giggingstown see it that way, time will tell.
I don’t fancy anything in this race win only for the RSA, and if you’ve backed RWF for the NHC im not sure whether you’d want him to win this or not. Before i backed GDM, I’d been considering putting up either RWF himself, or Beacon Edge as an EW player for the RSA with cash-out as a fairly live long shot that could end up there with EW claims. Which tbf is what Gaillard himself looks to be atm. The front pair were good here, though I would say that those in behind aren’t up to much, this reminded me of battleoverdoyen and champagne classic with the team tactics, That’s the sort of level they’ve ran to.
1.10 shewearsitwell MAY win this and go fav, but I would not steer you in the way of backing her at CURRENT PRICES with or without cash-out. I dont like Tellmesomethinggirl and just have no interest in her.
My sister Sarah and Dysart Diamond set a pretty sorry standard in this race, and even that, is a step up in opposition for Shewearsitwell. She MAY blow them away, it’s not the greatest race, however I have personally seen nothing from her that indicates to me, to trust that shes a Star and to back her as fav for the Mares hurdle. I’m happy to leave her, and I’m confident that I can produce a decent EW bet closer to the time. Much the same as I said beforehand, I wasn’t impressed with this race, and I won’t be backing anything out of it.
12.35 Journey with me / kilkruit both run in a 2m4 novice hurdle, and imo it’s pretty likely, either or, is going to be the new fav for the ballymore. One thing I will mention about kilruit is that I was suprised when he was declared for his last race, knowing that he had ran in a schooling hurdle 2 weeks prior. Tony mullins said he over did it himself at home when kilkruit was beaten in his bumper, and I just thought that was worth mentioning as it was on my mind before his run, and i had it wrote out. Though I still didn’t see him being beaten, and thought I may look silly if I took him on EW in the Daily bets (with a NR Harry Alonzo not the winner)
Now on his run itself, it was dissapointing and its possible that he is going to go the way of the likes of blackbow and tornado flyer, rather than the way of appreciate it. You won’t find out until he runs here, it was either all wrong, and he wins this, or not, which does look the case at face value.
Journey with me has valid credentials for the Albert Bartlett. That’s where I have seen him, what I will say, is that unless Horantzau D’airy suprises me and absolutely bolts up on Tuesday, then nothing has staked there claim for the ballymore, and this lad would have as good a profile as any. I may have been wrong, and he may win here, be ballymore fav, and go for that race.
I don’t have a clear preference for either, the common sense thing to do, would be to back both with 365 and cash-out, hope 1 wins decisively and cash the other for either money back or what would hopefully be a small percentage of loss.
I don’t want to rely on cash-out in the main, so I don’t need the glory of having put it up that way if I’m right. Therefore I’m not going to make the pair advised bets, I will sit, watch and come up with a valid alternative later. But just like Sir gerhard with his run, I see it. I made a poor decision with kilkruit, there is no excuse, and I’m a shade dissapointed In my final decision making there. I obviously won’t take any credit for Journey with me, if you’ve backed him, your on a nice one.
Redemption Day another smart Mullins bumper horse
He’s a lovely young horse, by Blue Bresil. I bought him out of Pat Doyle’s nursery and from the time we started to work him he showed us that he could be good bumper material. Today I think he’s even better than what he showed me at home. I’m very happy with him. We’ll probably be looking at coming back here for the Dublin Racing Festival and certainly looking at the big bumper. W P Mullins, trainer. I was very impressed with this lad, hence putting him up immediately. I’m looking forward to him.
2.55 Gallopin des champs makes his debut in a pretty strong race that I would liken to the task that Haut En couleurs had. blue sari and fury Road bring reasonably strong form, race fitness, and experience, so there will be no hiding place here. The first port of call will be a win for Galopin des champs, regardless of the manor of victory. WOW he was very, very impressive, no more needs to be said.
12.00 Heia has an almighty ask here for a hurdles debut, she wouldn’t be my first choice, though if she managed to win this, she should be straight fav for the Mares Nov, and it would be deservedly so. But do not expect it.
Do not sleep on Henry’s pair in here, the filly was an impressive winner of a ptp that has worked out very well. While his gelding should have won a ptp impressively before falling at the last. Horantzau Dairy is to be highly respected for his AQPS form as mentioned prior, while roaring potter was an eye catcher on debut, and could come forward markedly. This is very tough for heia, Should she finish close up, in the first 3, we will give her another go. That was a decent opener for heia, and to be fair, she ran exactly the race that I thought she would, bearing in mind the race of which she was in.
She was looked after when beaten late on, will come on for this and will likely be kept in similarly good company to potentially retain her novice status for next years Mares nov.
1.10 Gentlemensgame is of interest here, should he finish between 3rd and 6th, he would look to be a serious horse for the final that I will be backing immediately. Coltor is fairly interesting, he would be wanting to finish around 3rd or 4th, to make sure he gets in should the final be a target. However 1st preference is as above. Gentlemensgame is still interesting, and could yet try to qualify again later, where you would find out if he was lowering his mark here, or indeed trying his best. I thought dunboyne caught the eye, however on his wider form, I’m inclined to hold fire on the pertemps in general.
12.05 Icare Allen gets his run, and at this stage, i am excited about him. He was a very impressive winner of his AQPS flat race where the 4th (Iroko) has franked his form nicely over hurdles. Prairie dancer sets a solid bench mark here and will not be easy to beat. Though I expect Icare Allen could be very useful, and if that’s the case, he should win. Icare was good, this was his first ever run over hurdles, and a decent race at that. He will come forward from this, we can judge him when he steps up in grade.
“He’s a lovely horse and he did it very well.“He has been working well at home and in fact the only bad bit of work he did was the one day I brought him away to see how good he was, he worked desperately.“I think he’s one that will go up through the ranks in those juvenile hurdles. The Dublin Racing festival would look an obvious target at this point.“He was very green over the first and was very green when he hit the front. I think there is improvement in him.”
12.35 Haut En couleurs has jumped the fixed brush in France, and starts off in a beginners chase that would look to give a straight line to Ferny hollow. The devil’s coachman should come forward from his 1st run behind Ferny, the allowance of Haut en Couleurs would offset that improvement expected. So this will be revealing either way. I’d be hopeful that he wins this. I quoted the devil’s coachman for the form line, but The reason i was only hopeful is that I rate the pair that finished 2nd and 3rd as much better than the credit they will get. This was a good race, I was impressed with him, and this race will work out as good a chase debut (over 2 miles) as any.
“Mt Leinster set a fair pace and had two good horses in behind,” said Mullins.“I think Haut En Couleurs looks like Arkle material and maybe Gentleman De Mee as well.“I think both will improve for the run, I know Gentleman De Mee had a run but certainly Haut En Couleurs is going to improve.“We were so disappointed with the winner last year even though he ran well.“He’s a natural jumper and I hope they all come out of here okay as that ground is dry enough. Paul thought it was anyway on that fella. I think they are going to water this evening.”
12.00 L State ManGets his run, and he will want to be winning this if he has any chance in the supreme. There will be absolutely no excuses. Hercule du seuil is a nice horse with a reasonable ask, Henry’s mare looks to be decent opposition. State man fell, he was still going very well, however it was a long way out, and I will reserve judgment.
12.35L Sir gerhard I’m obviously scared of him bolting up here and going for the supreme, he absolutely could do, and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off with 364. It’s a marginal call, but at single figures I will have to elect to take him on. Goven has plenty of toe, he’s a nice horse, with a big ask. Sir gerhard was very impressive, this looked a decent Novice hurdle to my eye, and imo he would deserve to be at the top of the supreme market alongside the hendo duo. With all 3 being untested to date.
3.30 L Facile vega has been hammered since I mentioned him on site, I also mentioned him a while back privately to those who asked what could be a danger to American Mike. I suspect a good few may have taken big prices with cash out. If you have, You will find out what you have here against the likes of Henry’s useful ptp winner. Facile vega was impressive here, it was a better race than American Mike has ran in, and he looks to be a very nice prospect for the Champion bumper.
26Dec21 Leo2m. Y 4y MdnHdl (15K)Hercule Du Seuil (FR) State Man (FR)
State man is one I have already mentioned multiple times. He was purchased as a juvenile and had a Triumph Hurdle entry where we did back him with NRNB incase of a potential bid.
he ran on debut in France in a race which was won by busselton, though the Guy Cherel owned state man was very much tenderly handled with his valuable novice status secured with a 2nd place there. This form is not to be taken literal, he may improve significantly ahead of busselton
It is also worth noting that guy cherel has provided allaho, Saint roi and capodanno in back to back seasons, I am expecting State Man to be smart, he goes very well at home.
hercule du seuil was purchased by Hubert Barbe of Horse Racing Advisory as (lot 464) for €185,000 and alongside goven, will now carry the green and gold of JP McManus. His 1 run gives him an advantage in that he only needs 2 more for a handicap mark, as well as the prior hurdling experience, time will tell what he shows on his irish debut.
26Dec21 Leo2m. Y 5y+ MdnHdl (15K)Sir Gerhard / Goven.
Sir gerhard has been touted for the ballymore, he is a very smart horse, with a high crusing speed that could still go for the supreme or step up in trip later. I’m obviously scared of Sir gerhard bolting up here and going for the supreme, he absolutely could do, and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off with 364. It’s a marginal call, but at single figures without a run, I will have to elect to take him on, which could be the wrong decision, however its price related.
Goven is a horse I know well, he was very impressive in his first AQPS race when recieving a lot of weight, and impressive enough in winning a 2nd AQPS race shortly after, He travels very well, and also has a very good cruising speed, he is a nice horse for 2 mile hurdles, and was purchased by hubert Barbre for €175,000 at the sales.
26Dec21 Leo2m. Y 4y NHF (10K) Facile Vega this is a race where some serious opposition to American Mike could be seen, or at a bare minimum, entered. There are some seriously well bred horses in here, I quoted facile vega as he will definitely be the hype horse, however it is not entirely limited to him, take serious note of both the horse that wins this, and the initial entries.
27Dec21 Leo2m. GY 3y MdnHdlIcare Allen (FR) is one I have mentioned further down this thread to keep an eye on, his AQPS form is smart, he was very impressive, and was purchased by a very smart judge in Mr Walter Connors, who provided JP with espoir d’allen who came here via a similar route. JP also owns the 4th from this AQPS bumper iroko.
Icare Allen is another yet to be listed in the Triumph market, and it could theoretically be the same case as hors piste (in the mares nov).
.We just had the long walk hurdle, of which Champ won nicely, he travelled well, jumped well, stayed well, and was showing no signs of regressing.
The race itself would not particularly resemble the stayers hurdle, with there being a lack of the early and consistent pace that the likes of Flooring Porter will bring. I feel that Thyme hill was the most inconvenienced by the lack of early pace, and could be marked up for a good effort here.
The race was a reasonable one, we lacked the uk form horse in buzz and you’d be suprised if the horses behind the front pair were good enough to be involved at the finish of this years stayers. You’d also think that with champ being 10 by the time the stayers comes around, that firstly he is unlikely to show further improvement, and secondly this would be his only chance to go for the Gold Cup should they want to do so. I do get a distinct feeling that nicky still sees him as a gold cup horse, however it won’t be nicky who makes the final call.
Does he need to show improvement on what he showed here, to be fair, not too much, and you’d think he would be strongly involved in the stayers itself. If he was mine, he’d certainly be running there, it’s a race we backed him NRNB for last year, and we certainly would have done so again as mentioned prior, should he have waited for the Cleeve.
I would lean ever so slightly towards Thyme Hill of the pair, as I think more pace will suit, and he could be timed to arrive on the scene late, i felt his challenge here was a shade early with champ able to travel well within his comfort zone, and have something left at the end, due to the race not being a war of attrition.
The likes of klassical dream, Flooring Porter, sire du berlais, and even possibly Abacadbras, should give a sterner test than they had today, so it’s all to play for, and time wise, we’re still miles away from the festival itself, with imo no need to act on the race before NRNB.
jonbon was good in his supreme trial, who is better of the henderson pair, I’m not sure, as neither are yet to face a horse that would be near the places in the supreme, Both are clearly the ones to beat AT THIS STAGE, and I’m happy to take both on, as we are yet to see the best of the Irish, which certainly isn’t colonel mustard.
I think people are going way overboard on jonbon, without seeing the opposition yet. Which is a good thing when your looking to bet in behind. I’m happy enough with the situation, and Willie is yet to show his hand, so keep an eye out over Christmas for the likes of the race which klassical dream won on debut, assuming we have rain.
18Dec21 Nav2m. 4f. YS 4y+ MdnHdl (12K)Journey With Me atm he looks like an Albert bartlett horse to me, and I’d be thinking that he will step up to 3 miles before the end of the season. He could well be a big player in the race, assuming that’s where he ends up. He was taken out of the race here due to the ground which was safe, it indicates that they certainly see him as a stayer rather than a speed horse, and perhaps they think he needs more cut and a test of stamina when running over the intermediate trip. Thinking outloud, there’s a 2 and a half mile maiden at limerick over Christmas, and down the line, it could potentially be allaho vs Minella Indo all over again in the grade 3 at clonmel, with Journey With Me and classic getaway, let’s wait and see.
in terms of Juveniles, there are so many to mention, horses to look out for consist of, but are absolutely not limited to… Icare Allen, iroko, imperial bede, irish point, inneston, irancy, inca de lafayette, ile de jersey, intranet, Isaar D’airy, vadaly,fautinette,iceo, matterhorn, Bascule, pied piper, Quais de Paris, Petite Tonnere, parmenion, si elegant, Alastor, Innatendue,Vauban, and ofcourse Gaelic Warrior. The above 3yos are well worth looking out for in Juvenile Hurdles and it may be useful to rule them out one by one.
16Dec21 Naa2m. 3f. S 4y+ S (12K)Capodanno/Gaillard Du Mesnil I would see capodanno as a potential national hunt chase horse, and the RSA would look the race for Gaillard du mesnil, with imo improvement set to come, up in trip. I’m obviously very pleased with capodanno, and I’d be hopeful that we have the right race, as I have had the NHC in mind since punchestown. Derek O’connor on board for a future entry, would be ideal. My initial thoughts on Gaillard du Mesnil, would be that I wouldn’t be as dissapointed as most, anyone who asked me yesterday evening about the odds for today, I steered them well away from him, he stayed on well, and ran a fair race for a seasonal debut. I’d be happy to give him another go, with Imo staying being his forte, and a step up in trip on the cards which will strongly suit.
Capodanno “He seems like he’s going to be a much better chaser than hurdler.”
“On Gaillard Du Mesnil he added:- “He was a little disappointing and he might have just needed the run. He’ll come on from that.”
It’s a little bit early to be getting stuck in to the handicaps this season, for a couple of reasons, firstly the hills any race market isn’t what it was previously, so we have taken a speculative view on Gaelic Warrior, and that’s as far as we will go in a speculative manner. Due to the lack of rain, We are also back logged with Novices and juveniles who not only need the 3 runs to qualify, they also need those runs to make a more educated opinion, and Novices are where the vast majority of winners in handicap company lie.
However having said this, my mind is always working even after the 1 run either over here or in france, and I will have an initial look at some handicap prospects, and we can add to it , and ofcourse rule some of them, or even all of them out, as we go along.
Gaelic warrior we have already backed any race (for the boodles), and since we’ve backed him, his form has been franked nicely over in France by the winner of the Grade 1 prix Cambaceres, which is something that I had envisioned prior to backing him.
He already has 3 runs, and he gives connections the option of deciding what they would like to do with him, whether that’s to go straight to graded company and attempt the Triumph, and/or leave something up your sleeve and go for the boodles. with all the experience already accrued, He has a very good profile, and we can just sit and wait.
Outside of Gaelic warrior, were going to be able to narrow down boodles horses quite quickly. There’s races immediately after Christmas In Ireland which will be targeted by those off the flat who have been gelded, so without a French run prior, thats not going to be too far off the likely cut off point for having had to have had a first run by.
Of those who have ran here, Gordon Elliots Iberique du seuil, and nicky Hendersons impulsive one, are obvious ones to have on the long list, with plenty left to run.
For the coral cup, one I would really like would be Dusart. I do believe that there could be considerable improvement from him over 2 and a half miles in handicap company over hurdles. Obviously he would need to not go chasing, as he needs 1 more hurdles run to get his mark. Teahupoo is one I mentioned at the start of the season, the irish handicapper has been lenient on him so far, so it depends what his uk counterpart does.
The coral cup would also be the obvious race for quilixios, who should improve for an extra half a mile. He would be popular here, so it will be interesting to see where they go next with him, and what he shows, as you could argue that in the Triumph, he had the experience angle gained from France, therefore arguably there could be less improvement in him.
Grand paradis retains his novice status over fences to date, and you could argue that they could elect to keep it that way for next season, and target a big pot over hurdles in the meantime. Just thinking out loud.
For the County Hurdle, the “sexy” one will obviously be Saint felicien who may get hammered by the UK handicapper for winning a lesser race, as they will be scared stiff of being too Conservative of him. Though he needs another run, so it will be interesting to see what mark he gets.
The Willie mullins mare echoes In rain would look a good candidate, She was swatted aside by sharjah on her seasonal debut, and that’s no disgrace, all prior form would indicate that using her natural pace over 2 miles, would be more suitable than the mares. Aramon had took a simular route to the county and ran very well when beaten by Saint roi. Saint roi himself holds a hurdle entry and no chase entries, he is another who could be buried in grade 1s, and Go on to be competative in the County off somewhere around the 152 mark. State man has 1 run on the board, and Olympic Man has runs in France.
For the pertemps, I do not belive the winner has even qualified yet, and for the martin pipe there will be a variety of options, including chemical energy, and I’d have to mention Hollow Games who’s near enough fav for the bartlett, though he has achieved little to date, and has a good profile for the martin pipe, with his current mark likely to be nowhere near the cut off point, again Olympic Man has runs in France.
Of the handicap chasers, I would be very weary of the irish national for those who stay 3 miles or further but death duty would be of interest in the ultima. Over shorter distances, I personally belive that Andy Dufresne would be well handicapped over fences for the Grand Annual or the 2m5 plate. Willie only has the occasional runner in the plate, but Franco de port would look suitable for the race, should he drop a few pounds and end up there. The pair mentioned above, are far from very likely runners, so don’t get carried away, as we stand.
I was very impressed with stattler and that was exactly what I wanted to see from off the pace. I had been worried prior about him needing to make all and showing pace in the early stages, he put that completely to ease here, and I liked what he did alot. I would have him over run wild Fred all day long, and at the shorter price of 7/1,after I have seen what I wanted to, I’d be very happy with that, the 6/1 available 45 mins after his run is still very fair. Please note that he still has to qualify for the race, later in the season.
I have seen that envoi Allen may be dropped to 2 miles at christmas, I would say that 2 and a half would be his best trip, though he’s interesting enough and would have won the hilly way easily enough imo, should energumene have not ran.
I do not get the overly negative talk about him post race , as I personally thought the John Durkan run was the best run of his life over fences to date, he had just been very carefully placed prior to joining Henry. The John durkan was full of quality, envoi was right there until tiring late on, and I expect him to come forward from this as he has lacked experience at that level.
You certainly wouldn’t back him for the ryanair at current odds, however I would have envoi Allen down as a potential EW player for the Ryanair chase and I am potentially interested in him down the line. What he would do over 2m, against the likes of energumene and shiskin, I’m not quite sure, however it would be interesting to see what he finds off the bridle over the shorter trip, and I wouldn’t completely rule him out.
“There is a two mile chase next week for Appreciate It at Fairyhouse but because it is on the inside track and because it has been so dry, we have to decide do we wait and go to Christmas or not. There is a beginners chase in Leopardstown over Christmas and you wouldn’t mind winning either but we’ll see.”
for anyone that followed me in the Anthony yarde / gallopin des champs double, Just to note, that the first leg (boxing at even money) has won. That should give anyone that diddnt have b365 some decent value on GDC.
constitution Hill was very impressive in his maiden hurdle, the 2nd has been considerably over rated prior, but still, the winner looks very useful. It will be fairly tough to see how he stacks up later down the line, with all of last seasons best bumper horses being in Ireland, and the strength and depth being much stronger on the other side of the sea.
On the same card, the tingle creek left me with zero interest in anything out of that race for the QMCC, I was very close to putting up Energumene at 5/1 Post race, but as I finished writing up, the 5s was only left in one place. He should win tomorrow, and will likely be cut further, hopefully he makes it to chelt unbeaten and in one piece this year, as I do think he is improving, and at the very least he should make the race interesting from a spectator standpoint. Energumene was decent in a race that lacked strength and depth, he didn’t really deserve to be cut for that display, however I’m sure he will improve for race fitness, and progress further.
07Dec21 Tra2m. Y 4y+ MdnHdl (10K)State Man state man is one I have always had my eye on for this seasons supreme since last year, and anyone who was crazy enough to ask me about this years supreme, a year and a half out, was given state man as an answer. I’d be hopeful that he’s useful. The same connections have hors piste in the initial entries here, and she is a mare that i know very well, a couple of you may remember that I had a good word for her in France and we backed her for a bumper in the Daily bets where she unfortunately was a late NR. She has since ran very credibly in good Mares novice hurdle races, and would be well worth adding to the market for the Mares Nov hurdle, with 365, PP, and hills. State Man is very unlikely to get in, (likely balloted out) horse piste is still not priced up, and will deffo be balloted out.
04Dec21 Ain2m. 3f. GS 4y+ S (27K)1(Grd 4)Elimay1551 she is the clear one to beat in the mares chase imo, and looks to be taking a route to avoid a penalty. Elimay Completely bombed here, there are excuses around travel and lack of race fitness, but there is no sugar coating it, she needs to get back on track. Concertista runs tomorrow in a weak enough race, if she wins, she picks up a 3 pounds penalty and becomes a strong fav. I personally couldn’t back her as I’m not convinced about her being better over fences than she was over hurdles. The Mares hurdle looks very weak, and I could easily see her dropping back in there late. Ofcourse that becomes less likely should she bolt up tomorrow. Concertista won well enough, a 3 pounds penalty for her performance isn’t ideal, and she will need to improve for the step up in trip, however she probably will, and you’d assume, like many others who ran this weekend, that this was just a pipe opener. I couldn’t back her for anything myself, with the Mares hurdle looking so easy to win, in comparison to the chase.
04Dec21 Nav2m. 1f. G 4y+ NovCh (32K)(Grd 3)Ferny Hollow Ferny hollow could go here or Sunday, he would look to be an arkle contender, that could possibly step up in trip later, though I’d be of the opinion that 2 miles would suit him better, however i wouldnt think he’d beat appreciate it over obstacles. Ferny ran well enough, I’d be very much in the appreciate it camp though myself, and I’d be strongly dissapointed if he couldn’t better that effort. In terms of an ew alternative, now wouldn’t be the right time.
05Dec21 Cor2m. Y 4y+ MdnHdl (12K)Kilcruit he is one I have always liked for the supreme, I’d be hopeful he stays over 2 miles, thought that’s not certain. I didn’t see any excuses here, kilkruit was beaten fair and square by a decent one, Willie will be very much having to look elsewhere for a Supreme winner. Wilie has plenty of contenders, and we will be hoping that State Man, could be a nice one, out of the bunch.
I have been going through the longer term entries and just to note that Saint Roi looks to be staying over hurdles as does Gentlemensgame. So if anyone has backed them for any of the novice chases, you’d want to be cashing out. In contrast Jungle boogie seems to be going Novice chasing rather than staying over hurdles, for anyone that had half an eye on him for the stayers.
I’m absolutely over the moon that jonbon won and in that manner today, the bookmakers have gone miles over board and it sets us up absolutely beautifully to take him on.
With jonbon making the market, whilst beating very little and being a false fav. This allows us to take our time with the supreme, and let some of the horses sort themselves out. There couldn’t be a better scenario for down the line and I will write him up in more detail In the horses to avoid, which I’m set to add a few to in the coming weeks.
28Nov21 Fai2m. 4f. G 4y+ H (100K)(Grd 1)Honeysuckle 11-5165 this is arguably the toughest race that Honeysuckle will have all season, this is no gimme, and I wouldnt be particularly surprised if she was touched off, though I’d be hopeful she wins. At this stage, I can absolutely not see her being beaten in the champion hurdle later in the season. Honeysuckle won very well here, and again, I just can’t see her beaten in the champion hurdle.
BARONERACING.COM Royal Bond Novice H´dle (Grade 1) I will just mention that I do not see any festival grade 1 winner in here, to my eye this looks an ok renewal of the royal bond, my mate mozzie vs mighty potter, and the mare impervious would want to be going well here in receipt of weight, if she is a true Mares Nov contender as I have seen touted.
I wouldn’t personally be backing her for the Mares Nov even at twice her current price, she has ran in nothing races to date, and I haven’t been impressed. The best of the Novices, are yet to be seen, and are waiting for cut in the ground, though if you’ve backed the likes of mighty potter with cashout, there is obviously no negative should he manage to win here. A bunch finish in the Royal bond shows that we was right to leave the race and any horse within it prior, the best of the Novices are yet to run. If you wanted to take the winner out of it for the Mares Novice, I suppose that you could do, she has plenty of experience over obstacles and will likely be bought by the likes of JP who has a good relationship with Guy Cherel. However she is not for me, and I wouldn’t have though that she will be top of the tree come the spring.
beacon edge and Grand Paradis may go for the Drinmore on Sunday, at this stage, I like both as ew outsiders for the JLT/ RSA. I would rule out the run of grand paradis he was badly hampered and looked after,he could find himself having a very appealing handicap mark after another run where atm you’d be looking at the brown Advisory plate, should he not get in to the Kim muir. Beacon Edge ran a stormer as per last time, he found plenty off the bridle, the obvious race would look to be the RSA, though he would have very solid EW claims in both the Marsh or the RSA. Anyone who has covered him EW for the RSA off the back of this thread, would be in a nice spot.
28Nov21 Fai2m. G 3y H (27K)(Grd 3)Max Mayhem max mayhem may well take on fil dor here, I will definitely be taking on fil dor in the Triumph, and this lad looks to potentially be a good prosect for juvenile hurdles. He wont have the jumping experience and may or may not be beaten by fil dor here, but I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if he could win. Max mayhem simply can’t jump and was poor at almost every flight, I wouldnt hold any hope for his flat form to translate. fil dor has been found out already imo, and I’m suprised he has been cut for his effort here, there will be far bigger guns out later. I can certainly see us getting him beat.
Runwild Fred is obviously in to fav for the National Hunt Chase, a race of which history would tell you that he is not a certain runner, no matter what gordon says. The owners denied gordon the chance to run dounikos, Willie to run roi des francs and Don poli. With All 3 ending up in the RSA being prior NHC favs.
It’s a possibility that they just decide to run, runwildfred anyway, and should they do so, I am more than happy to take him on at Graded level. Any novice with Graded Festival aspirations would win a handicap off 145.
Runwildfred would bring experience rather than Graded form and class, this would leave him as a good contender, but I wouldn’t worry in the slightest if you haven’t backed him. I’d be fairly dissapointed if atleast one of last years Novices wasn’t a class above, (should he run in the National Hunt Chase) Time will reveal the contenders.
21Nov21 Nav2m. 4f. G 4y+ H (27K)(Grd 3) Ginto/ Hollow Games are on the usual trail to the Albert bartlett, and taking the exact path that I’d hoped for, one could easily drop in to the Martin Pipe later, both would look to be potential Albert bartlett horses and they will sort themselves out later. Hollow games was good, i wouldn’t go overboard as he’s ran to about mid to late 130s there, he just does enough, and that being said, the Martin Pipe is still an option should he run and be beaten at the top level from here on in.
So job done for now, with hollow games, who looks an Albert bartlett contender unless he tells us otherwise with the likes of journey with me, and even his stablemate Ginto, looking sterner opposition that he will likely encounter later.
20Nov21 Gow2m. S 4y H (13K)Saint Felicien Saint felicien has the one run to date, needs 2 more for handicap company, and he’d look to be a big player in handicap hurdles down the line. In terms of handicaps, Coqolino is entered on the same card, he would be on a provisional list for the Kim muir, with 3 runs needed over fences. Saint felicien bolted up, in a good manner against reasonable horses, he needs another run to be eligible for the Cheltenham handicaps, where he would look a big player. It must be noted that they could also elect to miss chelt altogether with a graded 2 1/2 mile race at the Fairyhouse Easter festival, looking a suitable alternative.
20Nov21 Gow2m. 4f. S 4y+ S (15K)Bob Olinger Bob ollinger will be looking to get off the mark over fences, with 25s for the Marsh, looking pretty tasty atm. This was a good chase debut, they diddnt go overly quick, he corrected himself where he needed to, and the opposition was significant, he hit the line with plenty left in the tank. Overall, a very solid chase debut for Bob olinger. Coqolino wants a trip and is one to note for the Kim muir (as mentioned beforehand), he ran a good race here.
20Nov21 Hay3m. 1f. GS 5y+ S (200K)1(Grd 1)A Plus Tard 11-71721 a plus tard is clearly on the gold cup trail, and gets a full season over 3 miles, which he should appreciate. He’d deffinately be the one to beat for me, at this stage. Very good performance from Aplus tard, he is now the gold cup fav, and there’s a fair likelihood that it will stay that way. He is for sure the most likely winner, as mentioned previously.
Just to note, that i haven’t mentioned Fil D’or on any thread yet, he won well and if he meets the same sort of opposition, then he’ll likely win again at fairyhouse shortly before being cut further. My issue with him and why I want to take him on, is that he won a nothing race, as did skeltons who came from the same AQPS bumper. The horses they have beaten, are very poor. so I will let him shorten up, and will look to get him beaten when the big guns come out later on.
18Nov21 Thu2m. 6f. Y 4y+ S (14K)Beacon Edge I thought it was a good debut run from beacons edge, he steps up slightly in trip to 2m6F here, and I certainly wouldn’t be discounting him for for the RSA, he’s a live EW outsider. ( he Could just as easily go for the marsh) Beacon Edge was a NR and he would have won this easily, This was a nothing race, and As mentioned before, The bosses Oscar is a handicapper that could have a big chance in a Kim Muir should he somehow get in to the race. I would have absolutely no interest in him for the NH chase.
Exeter 1.10 Wed, 10th Nov, 2m 161yds Hdl (Class 4) I Am Maximus. Hopefully he can get off the mark here, and those who could, have likely availed of the 50s Antepost from the Members NH Horses to follow. I am maximus ran well enough here in what looked an above average race, the store horse who won, took the name that the owner had reserved for a while. The 2nd had some good form and I am maximus still rates a decent prospect. If you’ve backed at 50s, your either entitled to keep your bet and have another free go at it, or you can cash and move on now. In summary it’s unlikely he will be winning the supreme.
just a note that after the run of Andy Dufresne against Captain Guinness, I quite like the former for the brown Advisory plate, and I would not rule him out of the Grand Annual, I just feel that the 2 and a half may bring about a bit more improvement in him.
Sunday, 07 November 2021 – 12:10Ginto
07Nov21 Nav2m. Y 4y+ H (27K)(Grd 3) Chemical Energy this will probably be won by my mate mozzie, though this race interests me more for the fact that chemical Energy is being put in to a race, which I would argue isn’t particularly suitable. So he will probably be beaten here and be the first one of many that is on his route to getting a potentially lenient handicap mark, for something like the william fry handicap hurdle at the DRF, (and) or the Martin Pipe. He ran exactly the race I expected and the above I would say is on the right lines. The winner looks very beatable at a later stage, and I wouldn’t be overly keen on his win chances in the supreme, come the spring.
Willie’s Stable Tour
kilkruit has been touted to go the supreme route, with Sir Gerhard the ballymore. I have always liked kilkruit for the supreme as mentioned in the members horses to follow, so I see the claims, as he is a strong stayer at the trip. Sir Gerhard looks all speed to me, and I could see him ending up in the supreme as well personally, and time will tell. I couldn’t back him for the ballmore personally, those with Cash Out, may decide to.
Willie mentioned Grangeclare West could go down the supreme route, so that could be a reason why they are considering pushing Sir Gerhard out to the intermediate trip. I liked Grangeclare West, and had been waiting for this tour to see if he was going the bumper route, where I would have put him up, and that’s the reason I very strongly hinted at American Mike, while not wanting to potentially put 2 bumper horses officially up by early November. He could be a very useful Novice hurdler, in terms of trip I’d say 2- 2M5, he could go either.
The NEXT port of call is the Mares Nov, he has a whole host, and Belle metal gets a strong word, now if it came up soft enough, she has plenty of stamina, so it would make sense, but decent ground and I’d be genuinely worried about 2miles for her personally. Brandy love is a 2 miler imo, and iv nothing against her. allegorie I’m happy with, and we will see down the line, if we add something else, depending on performances.
NH chase stattler gets a positive mention and has been well backed, I couldn’t see him wanting 3m6 imo, I actually think he wants dropping back to 2m5 and ridden aggressively, ofcourse I could be well wrong, but I’m happy to potentially bet against him down the line. Capodanno could be a player here, as mentioned previously, time will tell.
Concertista for the Mares chase, I wouldn’t knock it, though I could also see her reverting back to hurdles late on, she doesn’t particularly strike me as a chaser, however I’m happy to see how she gets on, as she has plenty of class.
Elixir d’ainay I have always liked, and its good to see him back, he can go from 2m-2m4, again I want to see a run., likewise Saint roi, who could go 2- 2 1/2 himself.
The French aspect, I think we have well covered in the horses to follow.
I do not want to contribute to a mad panic about backing his horses everywhere, so I’m happy to let people shorten prices etc.. on unproven quantities. While we have backed what I took from it.
I think we’ve done a cracking job covering them in the Members Horses to follow. I would like to re-back Gaillard du mesnil for the RSA.
back now Gaillard du mesnil at 25/1 for the RSA, (365/PP)
on Saturday at Down Royal, American Mike has been declared for the bumper where we all thought he would be. I suspect a good few of you may well be on him at big odds, from early doors. American mike was very good, I gave him a bold write up in the horses to follow, have mentioned him on here as much as I could, and he looks worthy of it. hopefully a few of you would have taken the early big prices on him for the championbumper. There are tougher days ahead for sure, but it will take a very good one to peg him back.
On the same card, There’s a bit of word for the 40/1 supreme hope Mighty Potter, who runs in the opening 2m Novice Hurdle that ballyadam won last year. He is not for me, but he may be for you. He could also be one to note for the handicap hurdles down the line. Mighty potter was good, imo he is likely to be found out at the very highest level, what I saw visually, was that he looked to show a fair bit of his ability. I’m not sure there is masses left there, once he runs at the highest level, he will need to find off the bridle, and I’m not sure he will find a great deal. But overall he was good, and time will tell.
journey with me is NOT an advised bet, or entered up.. .. however I do see his claims for the Albert bartlett where he is available at 25/1 with 365. Anyone who does want to back him, should be adding him for that race, should they have bet365 and cash out available.
Due to him also having odds only being available in 1 place, and it being a race where I am happy with hollow games and gintos impending runs, journey with me, is not for me to add as an advised bet.
However if you have bet365, and you play the cash out game, then he is probably for you. As per the likes of I am maximus 50s… (for the supreme) previously mentioned in the Members NH Horses to follow thread, I’d have thought it would also be wise to use your own discretion here with Journey With Me (AB).
Down Royal 3.30 Fri 29th Oct, 2m 3f Nov chase
now this is a proper race, there is 2 in here that I potentially like a lot as big outsiders somewhat potentially for the RSA and JLT. Beacons edge andGrand Paradis, and just to note, I do think French dynamite is also a grade 3 horse, so this would be red hot, if all 3 are declared.
GRAND Paradis has a proper horse to beat here, he could be absolutely anything, and I have always really liked him, as per last season.Grand paradis was still going pretty well when falling, as he showed over hurdles, he finds plenty off the bridle, so I wouldn’t like to guess exactly where he would have finished. He is absolutely not to be dismissed. Beacon Edge ran a stormer here, and is well worth taking out the race, he was scrubbed along mid race, whether that was a lack of pace, or fitness, time will tell. I wouldn’t think that he would be a forlorn hope for the RSA atthis stage, good run.
29Oct21 Wet 2m. G 3y H (20K)1(Grd 4) Porticello is a juvenile hurdling prospect from the horses to follow section, he carries a penalty here and has a fair ask, though If he is a genuine Triumph Hurdle contender, he will win this with relative ease.
A place would be no disgrace, where he could drop in to the boodles at a later date, If indeed they wanted to go to the Cheltenham Festival. After just the 1 run, he looks a decent prospect capable of ending up there. Porticello was good, it was a reasonable race, and he’s on target for the Triumph atm. There will ofcourse be far, far tougher days ahead, but what that win showed, is that should he dissappoint down the line, he will still be capable in a boodles.
(25th Oct) Hollow Games is 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett with B364
Hollow games is entered up at down royal in a race which usually leads towards the Albert bartlett.
This is not a race to hover over, this is a clear one to back now. He does look a solid staying novice hurdler, and I had been monitoring the 2nd from his bumper who has gone well.
The issue with Hollow games, is that the yard has a plethora of staying novice hurdlers, and he is not guaranteed to be the one to make it to the bartlett, with the likes of ginto…. waiting in the wings.
I’d have thought one of the 2, would end up in the Martin Pipe, and in an ideal world, both of them would be 20s any race, however that’s not this year’s market.
So, do I want to put up one or both for the Albert Bartlett in October?
Not really, however his is odds are larger than I thought they would be, and he is sure to shortern up before down Royal, where I think he is likely to be declared and win. Hollow games did what he had to do, and was good. in terms of chelt it would either be the Albert Bartlett or the Martin Pipe, with a very small chance of a late pertemps qualifier, as per delta work. He is on track for the Bartlett ATM.
American mike is on the same card, but will likely be declared for the day after. it may be the same situation, however there will be plenty of options later, and tougher races ahead for American Mike.
That said, I gave him a very good mention in the horses to follow, before the vast majority would ever have heard of him, so if you’ve backed him already, want to do so now, or want to hover over him, I would absolutely not put you off.
28Oct21 Clo2m. GY 5y+ MdnHdl. Guily Billy as mentioned he was good on the clock in his P2P, he will have a bit of hype around him considering his Owners and the purchase price. I wasn’t that impressed, but I respect him and will watch as he goes up the grades.I mentioned here, and previously, that I hadn’t been particularly impressed by him, and he doesn’t look to be a graded novice hurdler.
24Oct21 Gal 2m. 6f. YS 4y+ S (17K) The Bosses Oscar
Now there’s 2 ways to go here, if he wins this, you won’t be seeing him In single figures for the National Hunt Chase again, regardless of what happens, so if he is for you, then back him with cash out for the NHC. I wouldn’t put you off, however he is just not for me.
This looks a fair race, one in which galvin fell in 2019, I could see the bosses Oscar beaten again here, on the bright side, Gordon is getting early experience in to him, which can only be seen as a positive, should he indeed be good enough to win the NHC.
Could he be beaten a couple more times over fences and get in to the Kim muir off 145, maybe. De plotting shed had a simular hurdles profile and went for the Nov handicap chase off 143. The Bosses oscar was beaten as expected, he is one to note for the Kim muir after he has another run and gets the inevitable entry over here to check his handicap mark.
23Oct21 Gal2m. YS 3y MdnHdl (12K) Iberique Du Seuil he is a likely boodles horse, who we have mentioned in more detail previously. He ran well here, and he is definitely one to keep an eye on, and put on a potential Fred Winter shortlist.
Saturday, 23 October 2021 – 4:05 Tullybeg i haven’t looked elsewhere, but if he hasn’t been put up all over the place for the pertemps final, then he will be. I have no interest what so ever in Tullybeg for the final, imo he’s a summer horse making use of decent ground. Do I expect to see him winning the pertemps final? Certainly not. Tullybeg is now qualified for the race, however he personally does not interest me off his current mark.
Mon 18th, The 10.50 at Compiegne is worth a watch, with the form of Gaelic Warrior on show, with kyrov the one that may well Frank it, in a fair looking juvenile hurdle. Saintamarin represents the form of Henry De Bromheads Foxy Girl. The very well backed kyrov gave her 11 pounds and a pasting when well backed in victory.
Notes from stable tours
Nothing of huge interest so far from the stable tours, please note that they are not designed to make you money, do not take them as gospel, or as a need to act right now.
Gordon Elliots American mike looks to be a possibility of lining up in the bumper which Sir Gerhard and Malone Road ran in, we have ofcourse mentioned him in the horses to follow, and he’s currently priced widely at around 25/1 for the champion bumper. I absolutely wouldn’t put any one off, though its a possibility the winner could be a ptp winner not been purchased yet, or an unraced horse yet to run, I also have half an eye on Grangeclare West.
Gordon also has some nice staying novice hurdle prospects for Noel and Valerie Moran, Ginto looks to be Value at 66/1 for the Albert Bartlett, though i am personally inclined to see a run or two, and let some of the opposition naturally drop out, rather than a more speculative scatter gun approach.
The bosses oscar has also been noted with the NH Chase in mind, though as before, I do question him, where off the back of his last 2 runs, I see no need to act imminently, with plenty of time and options available throughout the season.
Ballyadam fell at the first on chase debut, if anyone has backed him with Cash Out available, you would want to be cashing him out with no hesitation. he showed his hurdles little respect, and at this stage, it is the same for his fences. Though in a strange way, this very early season blemish, may actually make him give them some respect going forward,if you want an ultra positive outlook. It’s probably also worth noting that Ferny Hollow would be more likely to go down the Arkle route now.
ontheropes did the business as mentioned, and hopefully most would have been on the ball as suggested on this thread, and availed of the available 25s immediately after.
12 Oct Pun 2m. G 3y H (13K) Laishann
Laishann had finished a fair 4th in his prior race at Granville, and looked to have stepped up markedly on that next time out at craon where he came 2nd to new Willie mullins inmate Parmenion.
He has already been gelded so I did I expect them to not hang around, and he is out early to build experience and arguably the 3 runs needed, prior to a potential festival target of the boodles (Fred winter). Laishan ran OK, but he would need 2 more runs , and a win in one of them, to be going absolutely anywhere near the boodles.
Willie Mullins has Mentioned the potential of Chasing for Ferny hollow.
2 miles and the Arkle would seem to be the trip, as he is keen.
People will quickly assume ferny Arkle, and Appreciate it Marsh, with doubles all the rage etc.. this is Not for me, but if its for you, fair enough.
Until ferny is actually declared and runs, what’s to say he makes it back at all…. this is just my personal guidelines, I like to wait for a declaration of a horse returning from injury, even if it means a lower price.
Lastly, I will not be putting up Ferny Hollow at this stage, the service is in a good spot with Appreciate it and Bob Ollinger for those who were onboard early.
I see absolutely no reason to take cover at this stage, for fear of missing out on anything that moves in the market right now, I am happy to take lower prices on horses with the right credentials once I have seen runs, and also look for ew alternatives at the right time.
Not an immediate entry, and a wild one, so I am just thinking out loud here.
Sunday 10th of October, Limerick.
Ontherropes has an entry in the Munster National and a mark of 141. His last run was a big step forward which definitely needs to be confirmed, however what is interesting is that he is still a Novice, so if he did manage to go particularly well down the handicap route, then the National Hunt Chase is open to him With the trip likely to suit.
This is very much optimism, and something that would need to come in to place, via improvement seen on the track. He needs to find 10 pounds to be in the mix, and he probably won’t do so.
However time will tell if he can, and it’s worth a small note here, so we are alert and prepared.
karl der grosse and cavalry master in the same race, are also Novices, however I have no interest at all in the same theory, with them.
update on the ropes won, and is now current fav for the NH chase
In terms of anything at all to date, GIN ON LIME has been decent so far this season, and she’s not completely out of the picture for the Mares chase. However she has beaten very little to date, and imo she wouldn’t be the greatest stayer at the trip once she meets better opposition. so just to note that she is not for me.
I have seen a little Arkle chat, and with no offense meant, she has yet to face a horse that would be sighted at the finish, so that’s miles off, as it stands.
I’m just going through the opening Chepstow card, and although it’s Exciting to be back, in terms of Ante Post betting and Grade 1 Novices, if KNAPPERS HILL takes to hurdles, he is potentially the best horse on the card. My issue with Knappers Hill, is that the trainer has no issue in missing Cheltenham all together for Aintree, imo for no other reason that he has found the Graded Novice Hurdles to be very tough in recent years.
HALO DES OBEAUX is also entered here in the same race for the same connections, he beat the Willie Mullins inmate HENN SEE at Auteuil, and I wasn’t particularly impressed with his victory there when coming in to the race off the back of 3 AQPS bumper runs.
The Persian war looks particularly lacking in quality this year, I find it very tough to think that the winner will feature heavily in the Ballymore, such as the lack of strength and depth, no matter the style of victory.
so all in all, I wouldn’t be expecting to back anything for the Festival itself, off the back of this Chepstow meeting.
Gowran 1.00 Sat, 2nd Oct, 2m MdnHdl Iberique Du Seuil
Iberique Du Seuil By the sire of Laurina, Grand Roi and Dallas Des Pictons, Is a potential Fred Winter (Boodles) candidate, with an outside chance of making the triumph hurdle level. he has no race track hurdles experience, however does have a bumper run behind him in france. This is the first of 3 runs needed should he make it up to the Boodles standard.
Iberique Du Seuil sold online by Auctav to Bective Stud for €150,000 and is out of a winning half-sister to the dam of seven-time Grade 1 winner Defi Du Seuil and from the family of Grade 3 chase winner Coo Star Sivola.
The form of his AQPS bumper reads pretty well, he was in-between 2 prior winners when finishing 2nd at vichy, with the form franked at Grade 3 level next time.
However I would not go over board in terms of triumph hurdle aspirations at this time as the form is yet to be truly tested.
The early start here, could well be a start in getting the 3 runs needed for a potential boodles bid, however his performance over his next few runs, will tell the tale.
In terms of betting, it is not for me, however it may be for you.
Zanahiyr was out in October last year,
you have options of adding Iberique Du Seuil to the any race market, should he hose up, pull the trigger and hope he makes the grade, with the fall back of the boodles.
Imo Your looking at odds of around 25s to 33s any race.
Upon Allegorie De Vassie being registered to run over here, in the colours of the Riccis, i though it was a good time, to have a brief look at some of the key players in Mullins Mares Novice Hurde division.
The main reason of the timing, is that Allegorie De Vassy and Glen’s Of Antrim, hit the surprising stat, that ALL winners of the race, had already ran over hurdles by this point of the year.
A very early look at some of Willie Mullins Mares Novice Hurdle contenders
Glen’s of antrim (JP)
Allegorie de vassy (rich ricci)
Idoles des jeunes (donnely)
Heia (Kenny Alexander)
Harmonie Star (Shanikiel racing syndicate)
Glen’s of antrim is capable of improving, she is capable of having a similar start to what hook up had last year, though for me she may also be found out again up in grade.
Allegorie de vassy has an outstanding profile of a horse on the incline, with considerable experience. She is sure to be popular once entered up with the ricci name alongside, and she may justify they hype that will likely surround her later.
Idoles des jeunes, for me is not one to be backing Antepost as per the horses to follow. But I am not completely against her, as competition.
Heia has a very simular profile to Gauloise, she has been here for over a year now, so the timeline is right for her chance to be taken this season, she may be popular in the market, upon entries when the owner is disclosed.
Harmonie star, has a nice profile from her runs in AQPS bumpers, time given sees her likely to be seen this season, she may be an outside player, with no reason to react early due to her ownership.
ALLEGORIE DE VASSY who we have already backed, is the right long term fit. HEIA is one that could be crying out to be added and backed with those who use Cash Out, as she is likely to be very popular.
With no hurdles experience, her AQPS bumper wouldn’t be as strong as over here. However should she come out and win a micky mouse race, and you may be unlikely to see double figures again, until the possibility that she may bomb at some point up in grade.