Marsh Novices Chase

Over the last 10 renewals, it was the W P Mullins trained Vautour ridden by R Walsh who has set the fastest winning time in the Marsh Novices Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 4:46.30 which was set when winning the race in 2015

This race was initially established in 2011 as a new race at the Festival, and was upgraded to Grade One from it’s 2014 running.

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
Price – 4 of the last 10 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 8/10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 7 of the last 10 winners won on their last run before the Marsh Novices Chase, 8/10 winners ran in the last 54 days
Previous Course Form – 10/10 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/10 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/10 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/10 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/10 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 8/10 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 9/10 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 8/10 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/10 winners were rated 146 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/10 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
Season Form – 10/10 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 8/10 winners had at least 2 wins that season

Envoi Allen is a big favourite here and deserves to be. I wouldnt be surprised if there was an even money concession on the day of the race - if so, then I think that is worth taking. He is by far and away the most likely winner. He simply wins.

He looked great when he arrived and seemed to have settled in really well. The plan is to run in the Marsh Novices’ Chase. Obviously the circumstances are very difficult, but he is the class of horse that we all spend our careers searching for, so I was delighted that Cheveley Park Stud decided to send him to us.

Chantry House I am not a fan of. The progression that most people expected and took for granted, imo has not been seen. I do not fancy him at all to win here.

Fusil Raffles on his day is a pretty good horse, I do not expect him to be beating Envoi Allen, but he may surprise a few and beat his stablemate Chantry house.

Shan Blue is a solid consistent horse that looks to be a place banker here due to his very solid and economical jumping style. Not one I expect to be beating Envoi Allen, but he looks sure to run with great credit.

On Thursday we have Shan Blue in the Marsh Novices' Chase. He is a horse that I like an awful lot and a very forward going and good jumping horse. I think he would have a fair chance. Envoi Allen is in there and is going to be very hard to beat but Cheltenham is a different thing, and we have to get stuck in. I am very happy with him.

Chatham Street Lad had a very impressive win in a handicap. Last time he was just ticking over to be ready for this. This is a step up, one that I'm sure he will run with credit in, but I do not expect him to be troubling Envoi Allen.

I do not expect to see any surprises here, and see it as a straight forward win for Envoi Allen.

Pertemps Final

The Pertemps Final is served by a series of qualifier races which take place during the preceding five months. A horse has to placed in the first six in a qualifier race to be eligible to run in the Final. In the 2019–20 season there were 21 qualifier races, including two in Ireland and five in France.

The race was raised from Listed to Grade Three status from 2018

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Pertemps Final, 11/12 winners had their last run with the last 61 days
6/12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier on their last run, 1 of the 6 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 7/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 138 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

The Bosses Oscar has been primed for this race and he is an ideal candidate. However the handicapper has seen this from far out and has duly gone overboard on him. I expect to see the use of a claimer here to take some weight off his back. He is the one to beat.

Champagne Platinum has got in here lightly. He was ridden to perfection last time as a prep for this, he has every chance here and I expect him to go very well.

Imperial Alcazar is a nice horse, he will run with great credit, but what I do not like about his win chances, is that unlike the 2 above, he has been trying his best all season. He has been handicapped accordingly on those efforts, and I do not see where the further improvement is coming from.

He is a general 6-1 chance for the Grade 3 contest and O'Brien said: "He's our best chance, so fingers crossed.

"He's very straightforward. We've got a lot of time to go between now and Cheltenham but, touch wood, he'll turn up and, if he gives his true running, he'll be there or thereabouts."

Southfield Harvest I have included here as I have been asked about him a lot, I do not think he has a particularly good chance here, he has ran against poor opposition, for me he isn’t in front of his handicap mark, and I do not see him being bang there in the finish.

He is a real strong stayer, and I was a bit disappointed he was beaten at Newbury the other day. He went up 3lb the other day for being beat which I think was a bit harsh, but Cheltenham will suit and the slower the ground for him in the Pertemps.

Mrs Milner has ran with great credit all season. She fell when going well last time, and had previously been a little too keen when weakening in the qualifier that The Bosses Oscar was in. She is likely to revert back to the tactics that were applied when she chased home On The Blind Side - this was a smart run, she is not badly handicapped, and may go very well without having the finishing effort to win over 3 miles.

Ryanair Chase

This race was one of several new races introduced at the Festival when a fourth day was added to the meeting in 2005. Prior to this there had been a similar event at the Festival called the Cathcart Challenge Cup, but this race was restricted to first and second-season chasers only.

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners have been ages 7-9
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites have won, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before Ryanair Chase, 11/12 winners ran within the last 77 days
4/12 winners ran in the King George on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 1 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Ascot chase on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 9/12 winners have had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 chase wins
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 161 or higher
Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
Season Form – 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Min likes to bowl along out front, and throws the toys out of the pram when he is not allowed to do so. Last time can be excused, he is the one to beat.

Nothing has shown up with him since the Dublin Racing Festival. I’m not really worried though, he just missed one fence down the back and Patrick said he wasn’t as happy over that shorter trip. Once things weren’t happening for him, Patrick was happy to pull him up. He’ll go for the Ryanair Chase and we know that test suits him.

Allaho I've always said this is his trip since seeing him as a novice in France. Finally he comes into the festival at the correct trip, however it is his toughest task. He has a chance, however I strongly do not think he should be Fav - that should be MIN

He is set for the Ryanair Chase. I always thought he was going to be an out-and-out staying chaser, with the way he gallops and jumps, but his sire might hold him back a bit in stamina terms. He jumps very well and has a high cruising speed, so shorter trips might just suit him better.

Melon Melon is another who likes to be up on the pace, in fact all 3 of Mullins' contenders do, so its intriguing tactically. Melon is a bit of a weak finisher, he would not be for me. However he may go short enough in running.

We haven’t made a decision on his target yet, but watching back his last couple of runs, he doesn’t seem to enjoy being held up and the trips might just have been a bit too long for him. So, there’s every chance he’ll go for the Ryanair Chase

Imperial Aura has beaten nothing, this is by far and away his biggest task to date. He usually jumps very well despite the uncharacteristic fall last time. This is however a big step up in company and I personally expect him to fall short of winning.

Mister Fisher seems to be a popular horse, and I do not see why - on all known form he is well held, I do not expect him to feature heavily in the finish, and I can not see where the improvement is coming from with him. He needs to find a lot with the big rise in grade here.

Samcro is likely to get his ground here. I’ve really fancied him from early in the season. On his JLT winning form, huge chance, however on what he has shown this season, No chance! Hopefully he may recapture some of his smart form in the spring.

Battleoverdoyen won’t run at Cheltenham so it will be just Samcro for us in the Ryanair. He started his season well at Down Royal, but was another to scope poorly over Christmas. We decided to give him plenty of time to get over it and go to the Ryanair fresh. His work is still good. He worked well yesterday (Wednesday) so as a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner, he is entitled to go. When he can breathe and is right, there is no horse alive who can beat him. He’s had a quiet year, but is fresh and the Ryanair might even bring him on again.

Saint Calvados showed up very well last in this race last year, he is likely to make a bold bid again, while again very likely to come up short of winning.

Stayers Hurdle

The introduction of the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle over three miles in 2005 has provided an obvious springboard for the senior staying division, with the last three winners of the Stayers' Hurdle having come via that route.

There had been hurdle races over three miles at the Cheltenham Festival before, however the introduction in 1972 of the race that became the Stayers' Hurdle gave the long-distance hurdle-specialists a championship of their own in line with the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother Champion Chase.

The inaugural race, run as the Lloyds Bank Hurdle, went to the Tom Jones-trained Parlour Moor, ridden by Macer Gifford, who beat 10 others at a price of 13-2.

Crimson Embers was the first dual winner taking the title for the first time in 1982 and then regaining it four years later, both times ridden by regular partner Stuart Shilston. However it probably should have been three wins as in 1985 Crimson Embers was badly hampered on the run-in by Rose Ravine. There was no objection as both horses were in the same ownership. After a prolonged inquiry the local stewards let the result stand but the Disciplinary Committee of the Jockey Club made it clear that Crimson Embers should have been promoted to first place although at the time they didn't have the power to enforce that judgement.

Trends

Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 8/12 winners had their last run with 54 days
6/12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle on their last run, 4 of the 6 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 156 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win
Grade 2 Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 2 win
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Paisley Park bombed in this race last year, and though he has a credible chance, a field of this size and the luck needed in running, would always lead me to take him on. Everything has to go spot on for him to win, he will leave himself with it all to do.

“He was an odds-on favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle last year and then he had a heart issue, so I think when they’re well and in good form – I know it’s easy to say with a horse like him – he should go to the races.”

Vinndication I think tactically has a big chance here. I can see him stalking Flooring Porter, then kicking for home. He is a nice horse, and I see him making a bold bid. I would expect him to keep going all the way to the line, and to win you will have to pass him. Vinndication would be my selection here, such as the field size I would expect more places on the day, and think he is a decent EW bet.

Sire Du Berlais you would have to respect on his Festival form. It's easy to see him go well here, whilst I did expect him to be running in to one, However with Thyme hill out of the race, he now has a considerably easier task, he would have every chance here.

He added “it was a good performance. Mark (Walsh) said he needed the whole length of the straight to get there, he wants three miles.

“He's been a great little horse around the yard. The Stayers Hurdle would look the race for him long-term.”

Flooring Porter would be dangerous with a soft lead, vinndication has the pace to get to him,and the staying power to pass him, however too much rope, he could be dangerous.

It wasn’t the plan to make the running. He has his own ideas about things and can force his way to the front. In fairness he relaxed lovely when he got there and jumped away brilliant. He got a freebie, got to fill him up everywhere and was able to do his own thing from the front. He won too far from a handicapping point of view but it’s great to win a pot like that. He’s definitely better going left-handed as well. The handicapper is going to have his say now. I don’t know where he’ll go from here but considering he only cost five grand he’s more than paid for himself!. He will go chasing but probably not until next year.

Gavin Patrick Cromwell

Fury Road imo lacks the stamina for this. I think he is well handicapped and would have gone very well in the coral cup. The hope with him is that he improved significantly at the Festival itself last season, however I do expect him to fall short.

He ran well in the Albert Bartlett last year and was just a bit off the pace and had to use himself to get into the race. We’ll find out here if he gets the full 3m, but his run last year was a very good run and he entitled to go. He was another to scope wrong over Christmas and the last day (Boyne Hurdle), maybe he didn’t go fast enough.

Ifthecapfits is over priced, I wouldn't put anyone off a small EW bet on him with more places, it is possible for him to be involved here.

Lisnagar Oscar Won this last year, and ran his best race of the season in his prep for this. He wont disgrace himself, however this is a tougher renewal and I expect him to fall short on his attempt to double up.

Paddy Power Festival Plate

There have been two dual winners in The Tsarevich (1985 and 1986) and Elfast (1992 and 1994).

Three trainers have won the Byrne Group Plate four times. Bobby Renton struck with Tudor Line (1954), Caesar’s Helm (1958), Siracusa (1959) and Merry Court (1968), while Martin Pipe sent out Terao (1997), Majadou (1999), Dark Stranger (2000) and Blowing Wind (2002).

Nicky Henderson sent out his fourth winner, Non So, in 2006 to add to the victories of The Tsarevich (1985 and 1986) and Liberthine (2005).

Fred Winter partnered three winners - Slender (1951, dead-heat), Sy Oui (1953) and Caesar’s Helm (1958). Four current jockeys have enjoyed two winners – Timmy Murphy on Terao (1997) and Tikram (2004) plus Richard Johnson on Dark Stranger (2000) and Young Spartacus (2003) and Tom Scudamore on Salut Flo (2012) and Ballynagour (2014) and Bryan Cooper on Empire of Dirt (2016) and Road to Respect (2017).

Red Rum, the only triple winner of the Grand National (1973, 1974 and 1977), finished fourth in the 1971 renewal.

Trends

Age – 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 12 favourites have won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weight – 10/12 winners weighed below 11st
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Festival Plate, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 47 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 8/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Farclas has a decent chance here and I wouldnt put anyone off. He may well be exposed to a novice coming through, however outside of that, he has as good a chance as any.

He’s been running well without winning this season. He just likes to hit the second last lately, which doesn’t help.

Fils D'oudaries has a big chance here, for me he is the perfect candidate for this race, he is well handicapped, unexposed and I like his chances. He is a leading contender and my selection here. I expect him to go very well.

He holds a few entries and I’ll be discussing it with Mike and Hen soon, but I’d say his likeliest target at this stage would be the Paddy Power Plate. His last run might just have come a little soon for him and he’s been in great form since.

A Wave Of The Sea is an unexposed novice and has claims here. However, I personally have no doubt that the yards’ other contender has imo stronger claims, therefore at the prices I will be taking him on.

We’ve been really happy with him since his win at the Dublin Racing Festival. He has a couple of different options and we don’t have a decision yet, but his Leopardstown form will give him a solid chance wherever he goes. Most of his form is at around two miles, so the Grand Annual is probably the obvious one, but I wouldn’t shy away from the longer trip of the Paddy Power Plate either.

Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle

Willie Mullins will have little time to look back half an hour, let alone 35 years. But, at some point, he will reflect that over three decades have passed since Dawn Run put the Mullins name on the world racing map by becoming the only horse to complete the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup double. In 1984, she had won the Irish, British and French Champion Hurdles. She went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1986 .

The success of the Mullins dynasty begins with her trainer and Paddy Mulins, who passed away in 2010. His career as a trainer spanned 52 years, beginning at the Punchestown Festival, highlight of the Irish jumps season, with his first winner, Flash Parade, in 1953. Four Irish Grand National wins and six wins at the Cheltenham Festival followed. IT seems fitting that All five winners of this race, have been trained by his son Willie Mullins.

Trends

All five winners have been trained by Willie Mullins
The four winners were aged five, with last year's winner Concertista being six. She had been runner-up the year before.
All five winners have been French-bred and started their jumping careers in France
Three winners were favourites; Eglantine Du Seuil won in 2019 at 50-1
Three winners were unbeaten that season
Three winners had won at least a Grade Three previously
Two winners ran in the Grade Three Solerina Mares Hurdle at Fairyhouse on their previous start
Mares who started in point-to-point races have a poor record.

Gauloise ran well enough last time, yet she looks held by Royal Kahala, however not by much, so this race could well come down to luck in running. If Gauloise is ridden more prominently, and imo attempting to make all, could be the difference here, she should go well. With the hope of a change to making all, or being very prominent, she would be my selection here at the prices.

Hook Up will appreciate the trip here compared to when she was beaten by Royal Kahala. She is likely to go pretty short in running, though I personally have doubts about her resolve in a finish, and would elect to take her on.

Royal Kahala has every chance here, she travels and stays well, again it may come down to luck in running, and I would not put anybody of her at all.

Martello Sky I am mentioning her here as she stays particularly well. Now this is a huge step up in Grade, however i just have a gut feeling that she can improve upon her form. I actually quite like her, and I may be completely wrong, but I can see her running on to be somewhat involved, so if anyone is looking for to take a flyer on one at a big price, MARTELLO SKY will not disgrace herself and may be capable of causing a shock here.

Glens of Antrim has a squeak here, at current prices she is of little interest, however her last 2 runs has seen an increase in her performance. She drops down in trip here, and though she still has something to find, this is not a great race, and she is not to be ruled out completely.

The Glancing Queen has bolted up this season in lesser races, and then been held at a higher level. This is a drop in grade that she will appreciate, she will travel well and she jumps well, however for me I don't see the improvement coming, so if she was to win here, I would be disappointed with the race on a whole. I am happy to take her on.

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup is one of three races traditionally reserved for amateur riders but, because of Covid-19 restrictions, will this year be a normal handicap chase over three and a quarter miles with a ratings ceiling of 145.

The name of Fulke Walryn was added to the title in 1991. This was in honour of the highly successful trainer, whose 211 victories at Cheltenham included 40 at the Festival.

Leading jockey (4 wins):

Jamie Codd – Character Building (2009), Junior (2011), The Package (2015), Cause of Causes (2016)

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
Price – 2 of the last 12 winners have been favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weights – 11/12 winners weighed 11st 1lb or higher
Last Run – 1 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Kim Muir Challenge Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 76 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run, 3/12 had 1 previous Cheltenham win
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 24-26 furlongs, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win over 24-26 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 137 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

This is a very poor renewal of the race, there is only one horse left in this race that interests me and that is MOUNT IDA. I have been following her all season with the prospect of her stepping up to 3 miles in handicap company, I like her, and win or lose, she is my EW selection here.

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