we’re obviously light on numbers here on Thursday and that’s purposely so. If you’ve sticked to the advised bets to level staking, no matter what your average pts stakes are, then it would be impossible to be going in to Friday down, which was a plan (but id have deffinitely liked any of our very tight finishes to have gone the other way). I’d be looking for 1 solid hit on thursday then we will see where we can go, we obviously also have a chance of a couple of places.
As mentioned all season, id expect the triumph to be the big hitter, but id like to get in to that with as good a position as possible and hopefully have some luck on either side of that in a finish before the week is out.
Marsh Novices Chase
Over the last 10 renewals, it was the W P Mullins trained Vautour ridden by R Walsh who has set the fastest winning time in the Marsh Novices Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 4:46.30 which was set when winning the race in 2015
This race was initially established in 2011 as a new race at the Festival, and was upgraded to Grade One from it’s 2014 running.
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
Price – 4 of the last 10 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 8/10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 7 of the last 10 winners won on their last run before the Marsh Novices Chase, 8/10 winners ran in the last 54 days
Previous Course Form – 10/10 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/10 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/10 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/10 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/10 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 8/10 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 9/10 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 8/10 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/10 winners were rated 146 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/10 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
Season Form – 10/10 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 8/10 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Balco Coastal runs here and I like him a lot, imo he has loads of improvement in him going left-handed, and imo he’s a genuine real EW player with a genuine win chance. I have thought that he should be single figures for this for some time, off the back of his run in the scilly isles, and i was amazed by his NRNB price before that race.
The fav Mighy potter is the one to beat, iv nothing to knock him with, however his lead isn’t a wide one, and this would very much be the best race he’s ran in.
Appreciate it has already just ran In a race just as strong as this, and where I favour him strongly over Banbridge who just finished infront of him, is that he was commited to try and go and win a very strong race, while himself and the winner went for home early to cut the deficit. Imo Banbridge had the considerable benefit of not being good enough to mix it with appreciate it and el fabiolo, and to come home when the latter pair were already committed. Stating the absolute obvious, appreciate it wouldn’t commit so early over 2m4, so it’s not like you would just add another few furlongs to the race last seen and there would be your result. That can be turned around very easily imo.
James du berlais also runs here, he bombed last time in a more competative start since his long break. He has it all to do here.
stage Star I have always liked as a chaser he has settled on the bridle and that is to his benefit here. He’s no mug and he’s bang in the ew mix. If something keeps us out of the places with balco coastal then it’s probably him, however as mentioned I still see improvement in balco coastal. It wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see stage Star win this, and he is not out of it.
this wasn’t a great suprise as the result was on the wall after a couple of fences, and it’s going to be a long day. The first 2 in the race were the first 2 throughout. Those in behind fell asleep once again to the prominently ridden runners, and off a sedate enough pace, they weren’t stopping. You can’t win any race from way behind where the leaders are quickening and not stopping.
Appreciate was the one to take from this, he was left with too much to do, he made up plenty of ground and it didn’t go right for him, but he comes out with fair credit. It will be interesting to see what he does for the rest of the season, and whether he can put that right straight away.
Pertemps Final
The Pertemps Final is served by a series of qualifier races which take place during the preceding five months. A horse has to placed in the first 4 in a qualifier race to be eligible to run in the Final. In the 2019–20 season there were 21 qualifier races, including two in Ireland and five in France.
The race was raised from Listed to Grade Three status from 2018, and Gordon Elliot who is well prepresented this season, would historically be the trainer to look out for.
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Pertemps Final, 11/12 winners had their last run with the last 61 days
6/12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier on their last run, 1 of the 6 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 7/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 138 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
I liked shoot first and I saw him as the one to beat. I had one shot at it, and failed, so therefore I have elected to leave this blank. If there’s a future graded horse in here, it was him.
Ryanair Chase
This race was one of several new races introduced at the Festival when a fourth day was added to the meeting in 2005. Prior to this there had been a similar event at the Festival called the Cathcart Challenge Cup, but this race was restricted to first and second-season chasers only.
Trends
Age – 11 of the last 12 winners have been ages 7-9
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites have won, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before Ryanair Chase, 11/12 winners ran within the last 77 days
4/12 winners ran in the King George on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 1 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Ascot chase on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 9/12 winners have had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 chase wins
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 161 or higher
Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
Season Form – 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
This looks as simple as shiskin wins, I was amazed he was 7/4 rather than odds on after his last time out victory. His chances are the other way around and I see zero reason to take him on.
shiskin was the one to take from this, I think people are going way overboard with the dissapointment, and my first thought post race was to put him up for this straight away. Now as I eas thinking about that, they've gone all out in saying he probably should have gone for the gold cup... and are going for the Aintree bowl. He probably gets 3 miles and that would be fine, but again they're going massively overboard. Its been hard for jold ip horses all week, he made a bad mistake at the wrong time, and he'd have a very big chance in this next season should he go here.
Stayers Hurdle
The introduction of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over three miles in 2005 has provided an obvious springboard for the senior staying division, with the last three winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle having come via that route.
There had been hurdle races over three miles at the Cheltenham Festival before, however the introduction in 1972 of the race that became the Stayers’ Hurdle gave the long-distance hurdle-specialists a championship of their own in line with the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother Champion Chase.
The inaugural race, run as the Lloyds Bank Hurdle, went to the Tom Jones-trained Parlour Moor, ridden by Macer Gifford, who beat 10 others at a price of 13-2.
Crimson Embers was the first dual winner taking the title for the first time in 1982 and then regaining it four years later, both times ridden by regular partner Stuart Shilston. However it probably should have been three wins as in 1985 Crimson Embers was badly hampered on the run-in by Rose Ravine. There was no objection as both horses were in the same ownership. After a prolonged inquiry the local stewards let the result stand but the Disciplinary Committee of the Jockey Club made it clear that Crimson Embers should have been promoted to first place although at the time they didn’t have the power to enforce that judgement.
Trends
Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 8/12 winners had their last run with 54 days
6/12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle on their last run, 4 of the 6 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 156 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win
Grade 2 Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 2 win
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
klassical dream gives us a solid ew chance off a poor prep. I obviously like him a lot, and the key to him is switching him off and holding him right up for one run at it, I have confidence in that run style.
Teahupoo would have a favourites chance imo with any cut, but hes still bang in the mix regardless. I like him a lot, and I expect a very solid run. He is hitting the line strong and has enough tactical toe to be in the right position to make his move, and find off it.
I wasn’t impressed with blazing Khal there last time at all myself, and with any cut in the ground, he’s deffinitely way too short imo, unless he comes forward a whole lot in the space of a month. He’s not one im scared of.
Flooring Porter is one I liked considerably last season, I couldn’t have him here, and he’s in no sort of form imo. I do not expect a repeat performance, and he seems to have lost his enthusiasm on the bridle, which allowed him to stack them up and kick.. he’s not for me.
home by the Lee looks the big danger here, he’s been solid all season, and it’s as simple as he jumps and stays. You wouldn’t want to be in a head to head battle with him on the run in, and I expect teahupoo and klassical dream to get first run.
teahupoo made a mistake when due to make a move however imo he still should have won, he was switched right, then back left and lost momentum. Imo kept on the inside with a straight line, he’d be a very likely winner, however it wasnt the case and fair play to Sire du berlais who has a brilliant attitude and kept on best of all with a straight run through to got the job done. Klassical dream made a bad mistake, obviously had a poor prep and didn’t run to what he could have done.
Paddy Power Festival Plate
There have been two dual winners in The Tsarevich (1985 and 1986) and Elfast (1992 and 1994).
Three trainers have won the Byrne Group Plate four times. Bobby Renton struck with Tudor Line (1954), Caesar’s Helm (1958), Siracusa (1959) and Merry Court (1968), while Martin Pipe sent out Terao (1997), Majadou (1999), Dark Stranger (2000) and Blowing Wind (2002).
Nicky Henderson sent out his fourth winner, Non So, in 2006 to add to the victories of The Tsarevich (1985 and 1986) and Liberthine (2005).
Fred Winter partnered three winners – Slender (1951, dead-heat), Sy Oui (1953) and Caesar’s Helm (1958).
Four current jockeys have enjoyed two winners – Timmy Murphy on Terao (1997) and Tikram (2004) plus Richard Johnson on Dark Stranger (2000) and Young Spartacus (2003) and Tom Scudamore on Salut Flo (2012) and Ballynagour (2014) and Bryan Cooper on Empire of Dirt (2016) and Road to Respect (2017).
Red Rum, the only triple winner of the Grand National (1973, 1974 and 1977), finished fourth in the 1971 renewal.
Trends
Age – 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 12 favourites have won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weight – 10/12 winners weighed below 11st
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Festival Plate, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 47 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 8/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
we have midnight river who is rock solid imo. With any cut, he would have a huge chance in this and i like him a lot. He won’t be beaten until something else crosses the line infront. He’s very capable of coming from behind and I’ll be surprised if he isn’t absolutely bang in the mix.
so scottish is very well handicapped and has been plotted for this, he has a rock solid chance and should go very well. He’s the one to beat but if we’re close to him, we’ve a chance of outbattling him as we’re on a strong stayer who finds.
Haut en couleurs is a graded horse in a handicap who avails of a good value claim. He’s bang in the mix here.
il ridoto I had liked for the Grand annual before he won his last race. I think it’s a tough ask to win this off his mark in a test of stamina, I expect him to be right there going to the last, but I do not fancy him in a battle. I’m not sure how he wins this without something around him faltering on the run in, so he’s not for me here. Imo wrong race.
seddon did it very nicely here, midnight river jumped poorly throughout and I have no issue with the ride. There was pace on, he was a horse that was capable to come through late, however his jumping let him down from ever getting momentum. Zero excuses here.
Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle
Willie Mullins will have little time to look back half an hour, let alone 35 years. But, at some point, he will reflect that over three decades have passed since Dawn Run put the Mullins name on the world racing map by becoming the only horse to complete the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup double. In 1984, she had won the Irish, British and French Champion Hurdles. She went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1986 .
The success of the Mullins dynasty begins with her trainer and Paddy Mulins, who passed away in 2010. His career as a trainer spanned 52 years, beginning at the Punchestown Festival, highlight of the Irish jumps season, with his first winner, Flash Parade, in 1953. Four Irish Grand National wins and six wins at the Cheltenham Festival followed. IT seems fitting that five out of the 7 winners of this race, have been trained by his son Willie Mullins.
Trends
- five of 7 winners have been trained by Willie Mullins
- five of 7 winners have been French-bred and started their jumping careers in France
- Three winners were favourites; Eglantine Du Seuil won in 2019 at 50-1
- Two winners ran in the Grade Three Solerina Mares Hurdle at Fairyhouse on their previous start
- Mares who started in point-to-point races have a poor record over-all.
Lucia iv have had nothing against all season, she’s obviously smart and travels very nicely on the bridle. She won’t win this on the bridle though as its a lot deeper than what she has encountered, so I don’t know her exact chances until I see what she finds. There are a lot of staying types in here capable of coming with a late run.
belle the lioness jumped awful last time and was interfered with by the loose horse. If she’s a wild price with plenty of places, she would have a chance of coming through late. However the clear round is the major issue, perhaps with more pace on, being ridden in to them will be a benefit, but maybe not, as she takes a chance at more than one.
iv elected to go with 2 outsiders, with stamina EW. I’m well aware that we have a task on here, with the front 2 being the ones to beat, though I’m also aware that plenty have gone too early in this race with pace on, and that the race wasn’t ran to suit for either of ours last time. They avoided the penalty, and both are open to improvement in a rough and ready big field race with pace on. We would have our chance of getting in to the EW mix at big prices with Jetara and Halka du tabert. The former needs to come there with her run from a handy position, the latter needs to stay there and find.
Halka du tabert ran an absolute stormer here, she travelled very well throughout and stayed on all the way to the line, she was just positioned further back than I expected. The winner had first run, jumped very well and was a deserving winner.
Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup is one of three races traditionally reserved for amateur riders but, because of Covid-19 restrictions, will this year be a normal handicap chase over three and a quarter miles with a ratings ceiling of 145.
The name of Fulke Walryn was added to the title in 1991. This was in honour of the highly successful trainer, whose 211 victories at Cheltenham included 40 at the Festival.
Leading jockey (4 wins):
- Jamie Codd – Character Building (2009), Junior (2011), The Package (2015), Cause of Causes (2016)
Trends
Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
Price – 2 of the last 12 winners have been favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weights – 11/12 winners weighed 11st 1lb or higher
Last Run – 1 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Kim Muir Challenge Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 76 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run, 3/12 had 1 previous Cheltenham win
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 24-26 furlongs, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win over 24-26 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 137 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
the Kim muir we have Angels dawn who is a definite runner and im fine to go in single handed as shes very well in.. She was to be ridden by Derek O’connor bur there has been a jockey change. She should have won 2 starts ago when ridden wide, she backed that up with a victory on her next start which she was value for, and she stays every yard of the 3m2 here. She went off fav for the Grand national trial and was definitely travelling like the odds on winner when unseating late on last time. She has a solid chance here, will be nicely weighted and bang there.
dunboyne comes here after winning a good race last time, he’s inconsistent, has refused to race earlier in the season, and while I see claims with a repeat effort, that’s far from assured that he runs to that, or improves. He’s more capable of bombing here, than he is winning.
stumptown has already been beaten this season by our runner. He seems to have improved, but so have we and we’re on similar terms. He’s obviously a considerable danger, if not a little underpriced for what he has achieved.
Mr incredible ran a solid race last time, he has a fair enough mark and is a decent type. He has no gimme here, and he’s an interesting proposition that is still lightly raced and therefore unexposed in terms of what he finds in a battle since joining willie. I find his attitude and desire to win very debatable on his prior form.
Royal thief has come back off a long time off and they’ve obviously starting to be rewarded for their patience. He’s hard to judge, but he’s obviously shown something to be kept in training and have this race mentioned immediately upon his reappearance. He would look to be a credible danger here.
I’m obviously delighted with that, and any time you have a day of tough results, to pull it out of the bag in the last without chasing, is always very satisfying. I was obviously confident going in, she ran as per the write up, and again on the run in, I know what she finds, and I thought we’re home and hosed, but we’ve been in that position 5 or 6 times and come out of the wrong side, so it’s good to get one that we deserved safely across the line. She was obviously very well in, jumped and stayed every yard, and was the rightful winner.
stakes 13pts
returns. 18.4pts
halka du tabert 3.4
Angels dawn 15pts