Ballymore Novices Hurdle

The leading trainer in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Fiveforthree (2008), Mikael DHaguenet (2009), Faugheen (2014) & Yorkhill (2016). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle are Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins) & Gordon Elliott (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, Alan King, having, sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

2010 Peddlers Cross Jason Maguire Donald McCain 7/1

2011 First Lieutenant Davy Russell M F Morris 7/1

2012 Simonsig Barry GeraghtyNicky Henderson 2/1 F

2013 The New One Sam Twiston-Davies Nigel Twiston-Davies 7/2 2F

2014 Faugheen Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 6/4 F

2015 Windsor Park Davy Russell D K Weld 9/2

2016 Yorkhill Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 3/1 2F

2017 Willoughby Court David Bass Ben Pauling 14/1

2018 Samcro Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott 8/11 F

2019 City Island Mark Walsh Martin Brassil 8/1

2020 Envoi Allen Davy Russell Gordon Elliot 4/7 F

Trends

Age – 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
Price – 5 of the last 12 favourites have won, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, 12/12 winners at least placed on their previous run, 9/12 winners ran within the last 66 days
Previous Course Form – 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 19-21 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 12/12 winners had a least 1 win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 146 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 11/12 had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 11/12 had at least 2 wins that season.

Next Run –
8 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 1/12 winners placed on their next run
4/12 ran in the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown next time out, 2 of the 4 won, 0 placed
3/12 ran in the Mersey Novices Hurdle next time out, 3 of the 3 won

Gaillard du Mesnil brings the strongest form into the race with his run last time. He showed what I wanted to see, which is that he does find off the bridle. He travels and stays out the trip well. There is a lot to like. What he beat there, was by far and away better quality opposition than Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame have faced.

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 6th Feb, 2021 (1st) That was a nice start. He was very keen and I thought he was going to pay the penalty but it shows how big an engine he has that he was able to still find more after it looking like Danny had stole the race. It was a nice victory in the end and he must be a fair sort to come from that far back in that type of contest. Paul had to sit further back than I was hoping he might which left him a lot to do. He made it up nicely. The Ballymore would look the race for him at this point. It was a tremendous staying performance in what looked a real quality field. Stattler was very good and Danny gave him a well judged ride from the front. That puts him in line for the Albert Bartlett and hopefully Ronnie (Bartlett, owner) can win some of his own money back. W P Mullins

After race at Leopardstown Mon, 28th Dec, 2020 (1st) I thought on paper it looked like a strong maiden and we went a nice gallop for the ground. I thought it was a true run race. As it opens up it'll get a little slower out there. I was very impressed with him. The jump he put in at the second last showed how much he had in the tank. He looks like a nice, middle-distance horse and we'll probably stay at that sort of trip with him. As he gets more racing I think he'll settle better, he was a little keen with Paul. He wasn't stopping at the end and was finishing out the race well. He's a horse that will go up in grade easily enough, I think. I suppose we'll look at the Dublin Racing Festival. It depends what we do with Appreciate It as we'll probably try and keep them apart. W P Mullins

Bravemansgame won the Challow very well. The 2nd seems to have ran his race and had been previously very impressive visually. However that form of Stargate, now looks very low quality, so questions are to be asked of Bravemansgame, who is stepping up against the best horses he has faced, and it now looks a fair jump up.

"The Grade 1 Challow Hurdle was a very nice race to win with him and he won very nicely that day and he is progressive. He was beaten a neck by Soaring Glory and I was impressed that day and he jumped green and ran green and Harry (Cobden) could hardly pull him up. He just got better and better culminating in that win in the Challow Hurdle at Christmas and he was really strong from the back of the last. The Ballymore is the race for him, and he worked really nicely this morning. I am very happy with his preparation and he is a very relaxed horse and not keen. At Newbury we just kept it simple as we knew he jumped and stayed but a good strong pace will suit him well. He is a good ride and class horse and it's a hard race to win. Years ago, Denman got beat in it and it's a tough race to win with some good horses in it but we think he's got a great chance in it and he' s horse with a future. He is improving physically all the time and the best will come when he goes fencing but he goes there with a leading chance". P Nicholls

Bob Olinger has beat very little, however has done it nicely and is open to further improvement. I could never back him myself, such as the lack of depth to his form. Blue Lord ran way too keen over the 2 and a half mile trip, Ashdale Bob fell early, he just has no substance there. So it will be interesting to see him in the Ballymore against, Gaillard du Mesnil, who has the proven form

Blackmore said afterwards:- “He’s always shown us a lot at home and I think today was the stamp of the kind of horse he is for the future. I’m delighted with him.

“I wanted to ride a straight forward enough race on him. He’s a simple horse to ride in that sense and I was happy most of the way.

“He jumped better today in the latter half of the race. The jump is there if you really ask him.

“He quickened up well and he seems to tick a lot of boxes.

“I’m delighted for Brian Acheson and Robcour who are very supportive of the game and to get a Grade 1 winner is brilliant.

“I don’t think he’s a real sharp Champion Hurdle horse in the making. Two and a half is ideal for him now but I wouldn’t rule out two either.

“For the future he’s probably going to be one for longer trips. He’s won a point-to-point and looks one for fences in the future.”

Keskonisk has an EW chance here. He has not done a great deal as of yet, however on his debut he was doing all his best work late. He then went on to run with credit against the very smart Appreciate It, where he stuck at the task well, again over 2 miles. I do think the step up in trip will be to his liking, and the front of the market here are imo way more beatable than the supreme market leaders.

"He will either run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. The Supreme had been the likelier of the two, but we are starting to think the Ballymore might be a better option for him. Better ground will be a big help to him and he’s one that we always thought wouldn’t be at his best until the spring".

Bear Ghylls comes in here unbeaten, however he has not beaten a great deal and his jumping hasn't been the best. This is a big step up, and one that I believe will be beyond him.

In summary, this is not a great renewal and imo Appreciate It would hack up here. The front 3 aren't of a very high standard imo, however there seems to be only Keskonrisk who may have a chance to mix it in there with them. GAILLARD DU MESNIL has done the most of the front 3, has beaten the best field, and proved that he finds off the bridle. He is not a world beater, but neither are those behind him, and therefore he is my selection here. Despite the hype surrounding Bob Olinger, he has achieved little and is best watched, if he is half as good as he his being hyped up to be then he will win in a rout, but until I see it myself, I am not a believer. Bravemansgame took a marked step up in form last time. I would not rate it quite as highly as Gaillad du Mesnil’s win, but he is open to further improvement.

RSA Brown Advisory Novice Chase

This race is a Grade One contest run on the Wednesday of the Cheltenham Festival and attracts the best staying novice chasers in training. First run in 1946, Willie Mullins, Fulke Thomas Walwyn and Nicky Henderson are the leading trainers with four victories a piece.

Another trainer who have recorded multiple wins in the Festival Novices Chase is Paul Nicholls (3 wins). However, alternatively There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the RSA, Colin Tizzard has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

2010 Weapon's Amnesty Davy Russell C Byrnes 10/1

2011 Bostons Angel Robbie Power John Harrington 16/1

2012 Bobs Worth Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 9/2

2013 Lord Windermere Davy Russell Jim Culloty 8/1

2014 O'Faolains Boy Barry Geraghty Rebecca Curtis 12/1

2015 Don Poli Bryan Cooper Willie Mullins 13/8 F

2016 Blaklion Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies 8/1

2017 Might Bite Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 7/2 F

2018 Presenting Percy Davy Russell Patrick G Kelly 5/2 F

2019 Topofthegame Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls 4/1

2020 Champ Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 4/1

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7
Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Brown Advisory Novice Chase, 10/12 winners at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham, 9/12 winners last run was within 39 days
4/12 winners ran in the Flogas on their last run, 2 of the 4 won, 1 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Reynoldstown on their last run, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 11/12 had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 12/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 145 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 had at least 1 win that season.

Next Run –
3 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 3/12 placed on their next run
4/12 winners ran in the Mildmay Novices Chase at aintree next time out, 1 of the 4 won, 2 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Hennessy (ladbrokes Trophy) next time out, 1 of the 2 won, 0 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown next time out, 0 of the 2 won, 0 placed

Monkfish. As I have said from very early on, he blew me away on debut, has backed that up, and I expect nothing less than victory here.

After race at Leopardstown Sun, 7th Feb, 2021 (1st) what can you say after a performance like that — Paul thought he should be in the next race (the Irish Gold Cup)!. I was more impressed with him today than any day. It looks like he’s getting better with each run. The ease of it was impressive. This fella has the same potential (as Florida Pearl and Al Boum Photo); everything is so effortless, and he has huge scope no matter how he meets a fence. W P MullinsAfter race at Leopardstown Tue, 29th Dec, 2020 (1st) It was a very good performance from a horse having his second run over fences, to take on more experienced rivals at a Grade One track. I was very pleased with that,. It didn’t seem to be a problem — even when he was meeting one wrong, he shortened himself. He seems to be a natural over fences. There was a lot of pressure on him going to the last, with Latest Exhibition -who has a bit more experience than him. He pulled himself together, fought his way over it, and he just had a little bit in reserve. I’d imagine we’ll look at the Flogas Chase. We’ll focus on that first — and if all goes well we can look at Cheltenham after that. W P Mullins

Sporting John is very likely to run here. His run in the Scilly Isles gives him the best UK form coming into this race. If anyone to my surprise, manages to beat Monkfish, he has as good a chance as any.

Johnson said: "They have gone a good, strong gallop and he has had only one run over fences at Exeter. He was disappointing there. Before Christmas a lot of the horses were not finishing their races, but owner JP McManus is very good. There is no rush and he said to wait until the horse is right.

"Philip thought he was in good form the last couple of weeks and he’s come here today and proved it. It has taken him a good mile to just get him into that rhythm and start to operate. With the ground, the race has come back to me a bit from the Pond Fence and it worked out really well.

"He is probably a three-miler as such, but with conditions as they are at the moment, that is probably what you need. It is fantastic today and it’s great to get a Grade One winner."

The Big Breakaway needs to jump an awful lot better than at Kempton. With a clear round there, he should have won. He is another I expect to come up short, however I do see the room for improvement with him, a clear round is the key. If he gets one, he's in the mix for 2nd place.

"I think he is a very talented horse and he finished fourth at the Festival last year but I don't think he travelled particularly well. This year he came out first time at Cheltenham and he was very impressive. In the back of our minds, we were very keen to get some race experience into him and felt that we wanted to get to Cheltenham with three or four runs under our belts and looking forward to next year having got the experience into him as he is going to be in the big league next year. We went to Exeter and it backfired on him - he basically was left to make his own running and completely dossed along and got outsprinted from the last. We went to the Kauto Star and had to drop him in and go back to basics and Dan's horse (Shan Blue) jumped and galloped and got a march on him. His jumping got found out of the last four or five fences, but I think that Kempton run was what we were aiming to do in between and was the making of the horse. He learnt more there and this time we can ride him without making the running and ride him in third or fourth and Cheltenham will suit him better. I don't think he has done an awful lot wrong he has already won a chase around Cheltenham and finished second in a grade 1 over fences and is a horse who is maturing all the time and I am sure his time will come. It is a hot division, but he is a massively talented horse who is going to these or be competitive in these big events" C Tizzard.

Next Destination I personally think is another that is considerably under priced. He has done little, and I would be surprised if he featured heavily in the finish here

"He is in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase and the National Hunt Chase and if it soft he will run in the Brown Advisory. We put him in the NH as he stays very strongly, and Harry (Cobden) can ride him now. He will be in at the five-day stage in both races and if it is good to soft we will run in the Brown Advisory. He is a horse who had the best part of two and a half years off and he joined us and ran very well over hurdles at Wetherby. He has had two chase runs both in Grade 2s and ran very well in both. He jumped great and won well at Newbury and then won the other day at Warwick which was a bit sharp, but he stayed on strong and has bundles of stamina. The softer the ground the better for him and he's a very smart horse. Willie's horse, Monkfish, is going to be hard to beat on all known form but you never worry about one horse in novice chases at Cheltenham and a lot can happen and they have to jump well. He has it all to do but is in there with a right chance". P Nichols.

Eklat de Rire jumps well, however imo that his only attribute. If he is better than a 150 horse, I'll be surprised.

After race at Punchestown Tue, 8th Dec, 2020 (1st)

I'm delighted with that. He seemed to really enjoy himself and jumped really well. Rachael said he was brave at the first couple, a bit fresh, but once he settled down into it he seemed to be loving it. His two jumps up the side, four out and three out, were really good. He seems really nice and a real three miler. Hopefully he'll come on a bit from that as well. He's in the race at Leopardstown over Christmas (Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase). His owner Peter Davies is based in England so the race at Kempton (Grade 1 Kauto Star Novice Chase) is another option although both races might come a bit soon. There is a Grade 3 in Naas in the New Year over that trip and that might be the more sensible one. We'll weigh it up and see.

Henry De Bromhead

I can not see past monkfish here, so my selection would be monkfish.

Coral Cup

The past 16 favourities had all been beaten, but the well-backed Dame De Compagnie bucked that trend in some style with a commanding success last year.

Only four winners since 2000 had run more than nine times over hurdles. William Henry is a recent exception, with 10 runs over hurdles before victory in 2019

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5-7
Price – 1 of the last 12 winners have been favourites, 2/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 10/12 were priced 12/1 or bigger
Weight – 9/12 winners weighed between 10st 6lbs & 11st 6lbs
Last Run – 5/12 winners won on their last run before the Coral Cup, 10/12 winners had their last run within 80 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 4/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 1 run over 19-21 furlongs, 7/12 winners had a previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 6 runs over hurdles, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners had at a rating of 140 or higher
Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Next Run –
2 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 1/12 placed on their next run
5/12 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle on their next run, 1 of the 5 won, 1 placed

Grand Roi. I have no doubt that Grand Roi has been laid out for a handicap, and this looks to be the one - he ran into Bachasson last time who is in fine form, on his seasonal debut. If I am being picky, he jumped a little scrappy, however that has improved no end on his next starts. The step back in trip looks to be very suitable for him, he gets in a rythym and gallops all day -I like him. He has a BIG chance and is my selection here.

Craigneiche, you would have to respect for his performance last time, he has gone up considerably in the weights, but it does not look beyond him. He doesn't have a great deal of pace, so imo he would need them to go too hard upfront, which would allow him to stay on late. With the field size here, you would also need a little luck in running.

Birchdale ran well enough last year, and come back again off a mark 2 pounds lower. He will be fitter than he was last year. In his last run in a bumper, he was eye catching, I wouldn't put anybody off him.

Koshari has never been a big price for this, having been an eye catcher at the Dublin Racing Festival over 3 miles. He won a nothing race before that, coming off a 2 year break. At the DRF itself, he was held right up, he was held together to pass beaten horses and finished with something left in reserve. That wasn't the greatest contest, this is tougher, and if he gets himself so far behind due to a mistake then he would be very unlikely to win this. On prior form he is a 25/1 shot here, I could not back him, even when he was 14/1.

Monte Cristo has took a big hike in the weights for winning a very poor race. He travelled well there, however this is a whole lot tougher, with the extra weight on board and far tougher opposition, I find it very debatable that he will find much in the finish. I think he has found his mark, and I do not see where the improvement needed will come from. I am happy to oppose him here.

Botox Has. He has come in for considerable market support. I personally think that he is considerably exposed and I do not see why he is the price he is - i I would make him a 33/1 plus shot here. I do not see any reason to waste more time on him.

Ganapathi I have added him in here, on the off chance he runs. if he did, BIG chance.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Leading Trainer (6 wins):

Tom Dreaper– Fortria (1960, 1961), Ben Stack (1964), Flyingbolt (1966), Muir (1969), Straight Fort (1970)
Nicky Henderson - Remittance Man (1992), Finian's Rainbow (2012), Sprinter Sacre (2013, 2016), Altior (2018, 2019)
Paul Nicholls- Call Equiname (1999), Azertyuiop (2004), Master Minded (2008, 2009), Dodging Bullets (2015), Politologue (2020)

There have been many multiple winners but Badsworth Boy (1983-85) is the only three-time scorer. Altior will be attempting to emulate him having won in 2018 and 2019.

No mare has ever won the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Lady Buttons is the only mare entered this year

The fastest time is 3m 44.70s, set by Edredon Bleu in 2000.

Longest price: Another Dolly, who was awarded the 1980 race, started at 33/1.

Shortest price: Flyingbolt won at 1/5 in 1966.

In the 61 runnings, 20 favourites (33 per cent) have scored.

5yo - 1 victory

6yo - 3 victories

7yo - 8 victories

8yo - 21 victories

9yo - 13 victories

10yo - 11 victories

11yo - 2 victories

12yo - 1 victory

There have been 22 Irish winners: Quita Que (1959), Fortria (1960 & 1961), Ben Stack (1964), Flyingbolt (1966), Muir (1969), Straight Fort (1970), Inkslinger (1973), Lough Inagh (1975), Skymas (1976 & 1977), Hilly Way (1978 & 1979), Drumgora (1981), Buck House (1986), Klairon Davis (1996), Moscow Flyer (2003 & 2005), Newmill (2006), Big Zeb (2010), Sizing Europe (2011) & Special Tiara (2017).

2010 Big Zeb Barry Geraghty C A Murphy 10/1

2011 Sizing Europe A E Lynch Henry de Bromhead 10/1

2012 Finians Rainbow Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 4/1 2F

2013 Sprinter Sacre Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 1/4 F

2014 Sire de Grugy Jamie Moore Gary Moore 11/4 F

2015 Dodging Bullets Sam Twiston-Davies Paul Nicholls 9/2

2016 Sprinter Sacre Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 5/1 2F

2017 Special Tiara Noel Fehily Henry de Bromhead 11/1

2018 Altior Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson Evs F

2019 Altior Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 4/11 F

2020 Politologue Harry Skelton Paul Nicholls 6/1

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 8 and 10
Price – 5 of the last 12 favourites won, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 8/12 winners won on their previous run before the Queen Mother Champion Chase, 10/12 winners ran within the last 53 days
7/12 winners ran in the Clarence House Chase on their last run, 5 of the 7 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 9 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 6 wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 12/12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 164 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 12/12 winners had at least 1 grade 1 win
Grade 2 Wins – 12/12 winners had at least 1 grade 2 win
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Next Run –
9 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 12/12 finished in the top 2 on their next run
2/12 winners ran next in the Melling Chase 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
5/12 winners ran next in the Celebration Chase 4 of the 5 won, 1 placed
2/12 winners ran next in the Champion Chase at Punchestown, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed

Chacun Pour Soi. He would be my nap of the meeting. Altior has never had a great deal of pace, but now has lost what pace he did have for me. Politologue will run a very solid race despite defeat last time. But I won't waste time, Chacun Pour Soi.

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 6th Feb, 2021 (1st) It was a very good performance. I was a little bit worried going to the third last if Paul had anything left in the tank as he seemed to be niggling,. After the second last I thought he wasn't putting the race to bed or anything. Paul felt that he was in command at all stages. He just wanted to get down to the last, jump it, and then go. The end result was very good. I was worried over the third and second last but Paul said he was just asleep underneath him. They didn't hang around. Min set off to make the pace and then Notebook joined him. Notebook was probably just slicker in the air and Min paid the penalty for that later on. Min seems to be fine, Patrick got off and thought he was fine. It didn't work out for him today but the other guy was awesome. W P Mullins

After race at Leopardstown Sun, 27th Dec, 2020 (1st) I was really pleased with that. He showed a great spring in his jumping and really attacked his fences. After the last fence he flew around the final bend and was then idling a bit. W P Mullins

Altior i am not looking forward to watching, he never had bags of pace, however he now has lost what he did have. I hope the cheek pieces bring a bit of a revival in terms of him running with credit. I would like to see him go well, but i see no way he wins. it must be said that i gave sprinter sacre no chance in the year he came back and won, however he diddn't lack pace and it was imo some what of a mental and confidence issue to push the barriers of performance after his heart trouble.

Politologue won a very weak renewal of this race last year. He jumped and travelled superbly, a repeat performance of that would see him go well here, all be it I cannot see him beating Chacun. I do not have a stone to throw at him, a good solid horse, that will give any backers a run for their money.

"The Queen Mother Champion Chase has been a good race for us, and it was fantastic to win it with Politologue last year. This year is his sixth Festival and if you had seen him gallop this morning you would have been very impressed. He comes good this time of year and goes there with a chance. The ground was slightly test in the Clarence House and he is better on drying ground, but he always gives his all and can run to a very high level. Chacun Pour Soi has not run at Cheltenham before and has to act on the track but if he does then he will be hard to beat but you should never be afraid of one. To be realistic we will go with a nice chance, but it will be hard. Harry will ride Politolgue and Bryony Frost will ride Greaneteen". P Nicholls

Put The Kettle On. Her form for me is not that of a win contender. I see her being well dispatched by the likes of Chacun Pour Soi, and maybe even Politologue, on the big day itself. I wish connections the best of luck, she's a good story, however she certainly isnt a bet for me

"I wasn’t convinced that Leopardstown would suit her, so I thought she ran very well behind Chacun Pour Soi last time. Her record around Cheltenham is fantastic, so we are excited to get her back there. She’ll run in the Champion Chase". HDB

Nube Negra beat an Altior that has seen better days last time. I can’t have him at all, he has always travelled very well, and done little in the closing stages. He was flattered considerably.

"Nube Negra runs in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and we are very happy with him. He has come out of Kempton well and this has always been the plan. He went to Warwick last week for a gallop and he was good. We have no excuses; we are very happy with him and his chance improves with dry ground. We ran him fresh at Kempton and he won and that is something you have to bear in mind. I would have liked to run him more as he is a great competitor, but we just couldn’t, and we just had to sit quiet and do the best for him. I think the best thing is coming to Cheltenham fresh". D Skelton

First Flow is another I can't have here. He has come through from handicaps and has seen a revival of his form. This is a big step up, the left handed track and projected decent ground are both against him here.

“When I made the entry (for the Champion Chase) it was a little bit of a fairytale entry really, but what he achieved at Ascot was phenomenal – it was as good a race as I’ve ever watched in my life, I think,” said Bailey.

“I really enjoyed the fact that he did what he did, and it was the way he did it on ground that we weren’t necessarily expecting him to be that good on.

“It launched us very quickly to a place where we have to go for the Champion Chase – whether we like it or not. He became a horse that’s certainly good enough (to run).

“We’re going forward in a new dimension and in a place where none of us knew we’d be. We’re going to take it on with both hands and with both feet firmly on the ground.” K Bailey

Cross Country Chase

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners have been aged 8 or older
Price – 2 of the last 12 favorites/joint favorites have won, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase, 7/12 winners ran within the last 46 days
4/12 winners ran in the Cross Country Handicap Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 1 of the 4 won. 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 run over 30 furlongs, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win over 30 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 8 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 13 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher
Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 7/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Next Run –
4 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 2/12 placed on their next run
4/12 winners ran in the Grand National on their next run, 2 of the 4 won, 2 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Irish Grand National (Fairyhouse) on their next run, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Cross Country Chase (Punchestown) on their next run, 1 of the 2 won, 0 placed

Easysland. Is the likely winner. I see nothing behind in the UK of interest at all, and this is a very poor renewal. If you're going UK, you'd back Tiger Roll and hope, as there is nothing else. Simply an Easysland win.

"Easysland is in good form before the Festival. I'm very happy with him and he'll go there fit and ready,"

Balko Des Flos is interesting in the fact he can blow hot and cold, on his day he is a nice horse. He has been running in very good races and this is a huge drop in grade. There is some real dross in here, and it wouldn't be a suprise for him to show up well. I fully expect Easysland to win here, and Balko Des Flos may even pull up, but he will be one that takes my interest in terms of viewing throughout the race. Alpha Des Obeaux is another with a similar profile, however he has ran very poorly this season and is best watched despite the considerable drop in grade for a shrewd yard.

Tiger Roll I am not expecting to enhance his brilliant Cheltenham record here, again on the pick of his form, this is a drop in grade from anything he runs in outside of Cheltenham. However you would have to be an optimist of the highest order, and there are a lot of those out there, so expect to see money for him on the day.

Grand Annual Chase

The Grand Annual was formerly run on the Friday, as either the penultimate or final race of the Festival. From 2021, the race will now occupy an earlier slot on Wednesday.

Chosen Mate became the ninth novice or second-season chaser to score last year. Beware of exposed runners.

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
Price – 2 of the last 12 winners have been favourites, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 2/12 winners won on their last run before the Grand Annual Chase, 9/12 winners had their last run within the last 90 days
Previous Course Form – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 10 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 138 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Three winners have progressed to win the Queen Mother Champion chase- Pearlyman (1986) landed the Champion Chase in the next two years, Katabatic (1990) followed up in the championship race the following year and Edredon Bleu (1998) won the Champion Chase in 2000.

Embittered has been eye catching in graded races and he can do better for sure. This is a big drop in grade.

"He looks likely to run in the Grand Annual. He has run some lovely races over fences this season and obviously ran very well in the County Hurdle last year. The drier the ground, the better his chance". J.OB

Entoucas is already at this grade. He has gone well in similar contests, and is open to showing a little more at the finish. The timing of his run, may be to attempt victory, rather than not to blow his mark.

"He has the option of the Grand Annual and the Paddy Power Plate. We’ll make a decision closer to the time. I thought he ran really well for a long way at the Dublin Racing Festival. Whichever race he goes for, he should have a good chance". J.OB

Chosen Mate has blatantly been running to try and get his mark down and the handicapper is having none of it. As a result he is pretty high in the weights and therefore open for a novice to beat him. However it would be no surprise at all, if he went here, to see him go very well off a welter burden.

Eldorado Allen. The Tizzard's are considering running Eldorado Allen here. Off 149, he may end up fairly well treated if the Irish contenders get a fair bit of tax, I absolutely would not put anyone off him, at current prices, he would be my selection here EW. Energumene has just been ruled out of the Arkle, so imo he may well be re-routed towards the grade 1, so waiting for the day, or NRNB is essential.

"He has four entries and is a Grade 2 winner around Cheltenham already this year over two miles. I think we will end up going for the Grand Annual with him - Shishkin beat him fair and square at Doncaster in a very impressive time - I think would we rather go in a handicap and be really competitive than, bar accidents, finish third or fourth in an Arkle. A fast-run two miles should play to his strengths and as long as his inexperience doesn't catch him out, he should be competitive off his mark". C Tizzard

Zanza has come in for some strong market support after falling last time, he finished 21st of 24 in the copunty hurdle last season off a hurdles mark of 140. He has done very little since, running in a few small field novice chases. He come in here of a chase mark of 145, i see no way that he turns the form around on elderado allen, let alone win this. He is Not for me.

Champion Bumper

The Champion Bumper is the only race of the week where no obstacles are jumped.

Leading Trainer (10 wins):

Willie Mullins – Wither or Which (1996), Florida Pearl (1997), Alexander Banquet (1998), Joe Cullen (2000), Missed That (2005), Cousin Vinny (2008), Champagne Fever (2012), Briar Hill (2013), Relegate (2018), Ferny Hollow (2020)

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
Price – 2 of the last 12 favorites winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 12 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before the Champion Bumper, 6/12 winners ran within the last 39 days
Previous Course Form – 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 run over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 11/12 had a previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous NH Flat Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous NH flat runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous flat win
Rating – 12/12 winners were rated 118 or higher
Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 run and 1 win that season

Sir Gerhard. The form line is there and clear to see, he finds off the bridle when push come to shove, that form line dictates that he needs to find a little more, and he may well do so, He has a fair chance, as i'd fancy him in a battle, He is open to further improvement, what he found off the bridle last time, makes him my selection here.

"His work has been really good at home," said Codd, who partnered Envoi Allen to victory in this race in 2018 for the same connections.

"You are always slightly concerned when you get to Navan in December with the ground but he handled it. Good horses tend to handle it and he was very good.

"We're delighted with him and we'll roll on into the spring now.

"His pedigree suggests he'll be better on a bit of nicer ground, being by Jeremy. Down Royal wasn't too bad.

"He's a very nice horse."

Kilcruit won very stylishly at the DRF. I will not knock him at all, it is just worth noting that the race did fall apart, patrick judged the fractions well, and a confidently ridden kilcruit cruised to victory. If Sir Gerhard gets him off the bridle, I know sir Gerhard will find, but will kilcruit? If you have backed against him, you'd be hoping we may get to find out.

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 6th Feb, 2021 (1st) I thought Patrick had picked the wrong one, how wrong was I!. I thought Ramillies put up a great performance here at Christmas. Patrick had huge confidence in this horse and now I can see why. My mother bred him, his granny, and he was particularly pleased to ride a winner for her and in the colours of Michael Masterson. It was a superb performance in what looked like a real good race. I was hoping he'd be a nice horse but I didn't think he had that sort of capability. That's unreal what he produced there. It's been fantasy racing today. Energumene, Chacun Pour Soi, Gaillard Du Mesnil, any trainer would like to have any one of them in his lifetime. It's been a superb day's racing. I was hoping we might get a winner or two and things have worked out really really well. W P MullinsAfter race at Navan Sat, 5th Dec, 2020 (1st) My grandmother bred him which is great and I’m sure she will be watching on. It’s a pity that she can’t be here. I rode him work for Tony before he ran in Clonmel and he ran a cracker that day. He’s improved an awful lot since. He’s a very light horse and doesn’t need a lot of work to get fit and maybe that is why he won today. I think he has a lot of ability. W P Mullins

Three Stripe Life was an impressive on his bumper debut, finishing the race very well with something in reserve. It is near impossible to get a read on him there, so you would be taking a stab in the dark. He has been talked up by the likes of Jamie Codd, and may go well. However due to the lack of clarity in to what he achieved there, I would be letting him run and do his talking on the track. My gut tells me that he will be held here. Time will tell.

After race at Navan Fri, 29th Jan, 2021 (1st)

We think a good bit of him and he’s done everything right at home. He was a big, backward horse last year and we just didn’t get to run him but we think he’s a proper horse. He could be a Cheltenham bumper horse — I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.

Gordon Elliott

Ramillies i am only really mentioning him, because people have gone overboard on him all season and still are. He travels well, however finds little in the finish, it has been mentioned that he may progress for an improvement in fitness, he may well do, however the jury would be completely out on him for me. I feel he has been over hyped due to the words of connections, something that happens often, and i do not expect him to feature heavily in the finish. If anyone fancied a match bet to give them interest in this race, i would take chemical energy over ramillies, and you should get a solid price or doing so. the latter is better than his last run, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could cause a suprise here.

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