Leading Cheltenham Festival Trainer

2020 Willie Mullins (7)
2019 Willie Mullins (4)
2018 Gordon Elliot (8)
2017 Gordon Elliot (6)
2016 Willie Mullins (7)
2015 Willie Mullins (8)
2014 Willie Mullins (4)
2013 Willie Mullins(5)
2012 Nicky Henderson (7)
2011 Willie Mullins (4)
2010 Nicky Henderson (3)

My 2021 prediction: Willie Mullins.

Prestbury Cup

Every year, when the Cheltenham Festival rolls around, the local area braces itself for the ‘Irish invasion’. Ever since Cottage Rake won three Gold Cups in a row at the meeting, there’s been a desire for Irish people to get over and watch as much racing as they can. Obviously Irish trained horses and Irish trainers are just as keen to be involved in the National Hunt’s biggest meeting of the season, leading to something of a battle between the British and the Irish trainers involved.

This ‘battle’ was made somewhat official in 2014 with the advent of the Prestbury Cup. Named in honour of a local village, the Prestbury Cup is awarded to either Britain or Ireland, depending on which country manages to achieve the most winners during the Festival.

2020 Ireland 17 UK 10
2019 Ireland 14 UK 14
2018 Ireland 17 UK 11
2017 Ireland 19 UK 9
2016 Ireland 15 UK 13
2015 Ireland 13 UK14
2014 Ireland 12 UK 15

My 2021 prediction: Ireland.

Festival Top Jockey

Paul Townend is the current Cheltenham Festival top jockey, continuing the dominance of Irish riders. Only three British jockeys have been Cheltenham top jockey in the last 15 years, although this is mainly due to the record of Irish legend Ruby Walsh, who claimed the title 11 times between 2004 and 2017. Walsh is by far the most successful jockey of all time at the Cheltenham Festival, with 59 victories. Second in that list is Barry Geraghty, on 43 winners, who was Cheltenham Festival top jockey in 2003 and 2012. Third is Tony McCoy, with 31 winners, who was Cheltenham top jockey in 1997 and 1998. All three of those riders are now retired, leaving Davy Russell, on 25 winners and top jockey in 2018, as the most successful rider still competing

My 2021 prediction: Paul Townend

Supreme Novices Hurdle

The traditional roar as the tape drops for the opening race at 1.30pm makes the Cheltenham Racecourse crowd one of the most famous and awe inspiring in the world of sport, that will be missing this year, however we will be looking to get off to a good start, that will hopefully see you making some noise at home.

2010 Menorah Richard Johnson Phillip Hobbs 12/1

2011 Al Ferof Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls 10/1

2012 Cinders and Ashes Jason Maguire Donald McCain 10/1

2013 Champagne Fever Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 5/1

2014 Vautour Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 11/2

2015 Douvan Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 2/1

2016 Altior Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 4/1

2017 Labaik Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott 25/1

2018 Summerville Boy Noel Fehily Tom George 9/1

2019 Klassical Dream Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 6/1

2020 Shishkin Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 6/1

Age – 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites have won, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham , 10/12 winners ran within the last 59 days
3/12 winners ran in the Chanelle Pharma Novices Hurdle on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham , 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season

Next Run –
6 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after the Supreme Novices Hurdle, 2/12 placed on their next run
6/12 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle on their next run, 3 of the 6 won, 0 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed

Next Cheltenham Festival Run –
4 of the last 12 winners ran in the Arkle at the next Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 4 won, 1 placed
3/12 winners ran in Champion Hurdle at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed
1/12 winners ran in the Marsh at the next Cheltenham Festival, and it won.

This year’s race.

Appreciate It comes into this race on the back of 3 wins, and for sure is the one to beat. A win over Master McShee at his own leisure on debut was followed up by a very authoritative win in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle where he destroyed his rivals. He followed that up in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival, where once again he showed his superiority over Ballyadam. I have no doubt that the optimum trip of Appreciate It is 2 and a half miles, however such as his talent, I expect him to win here.

After race at Leopardstown Sun, 27th Dec, 2020 (1st)

He surprised me and impressed me. I was wondering if he was a two and a half miles horse or a two-mile horse. I know he can easily do it over two and a half but to come back to two miles and put in a performance like that in a Grade 1 was impressive

After race at Leopardstown Sun, 7th Feb, 2021 (1st)

He didn't jump with as much fluency and was never in control of the race like I thought I could have been but the good ones get it done and thankfully he has done it. He was very good once Paul set him alight and I thought he put it to bed straight away. After the second last there looked to be a gang of horses queuing up behind to challenge him and the minute he changed gear there was only one horse, Ballyadam, and he fluffed the last. I’d like him to jump better than he did today. He was a bit careless down the back.

W P Mullins

Ballyadam was a firm favourite for the supreme novice hurdle at 6/1.

I believe it’s the right race for him and he comes into here on the back of the best run of his life in finishing 2nd to Appreciate Tt.

He was a facile winner on hurdles debut, travelled very well and won with ease against minor opposition,

He stepped up to the top plate in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, he travelled very well throughout. He didn't jump perfectly, he was big at the 2nd and 4th. With mistakes at the 3rd and last. However, on the whole he's still learning and it wasn't a poor round of jumping.

Breaking the race down itself, you had cask mate in a very close 2nd and it's left a lot to be desired.

Ballyadam has been put in his place twice by Appreciate It, and I expect it to be the same again here, however realistically, he does look to be the 2nd best horse in the race, and has a credible EW chance.

Metier won the Tolworth Hurdle on his last start in very impressive fashion, however I personally strongly doubt what he has beaten. Just as the Royal Bond, I believe the Tolworth was a very poor renewal, where nothing in the race would be sighted in the Supreme. I personally have avoided him, and would advise to take him on.

“The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is very much our number one target.

he’s rated 149 and already a Grade One winner.

We think he’s got a very good chance in the Supreme, so that’s where our focus is."

Blue Lord has ran well this season, is lightly raced, and improving with each run. This bigger test of stamina over 2M should suit him down to ground. He is a very lively outsider. Historically, horses who stay well do well in the Supreme, I can absolutely see him staying on late to be involved, whether that's for minor honours, or even the win if they go for home to soon. I see the EW case for him.

"That was a nice performance. It was halfway down to the last before the penny dropped and he started galloping for me. From there with a good jump at the last I was going to win.

"The second horse was a fair marker and had a run as well. He jumped brilliant.

"We went a nice gallop for the ground and we picked up and picked up again. The second wasn't stopping and it was a good performance to come from behind and go by.

"I think he'll get further."

Soaring Glory is a nice horse with bags of pace. I put him up for the Betfair Hurdle, which he duly won well, as expected. He travelled well throughout and put the ace to bed off a mark of 133. He was very well in there and this is a step up. If Appreciate It ran there off 133 he would have slaughtered the field, so he has it all to do. His tactical pace may be useful here, with Appreciate It the target.

In summary Appreciate It is my selection here. I do expect him to win. If William Hill do the usual concession of 6 places EW, both Blue Lord and Ballyadam would be of great interest in that market.

Arkle Chase

Run over two miles, the Arkle has proved a hugely influential source of future success in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, with six horses who triumphed in the novice race going on to account for a total of nine wins in the two-mile championship crown since 2000. Three future Gold Cup winners have been placed in this race since the turn of the century

The race title pays tribute to Arkle, a three-time winner of the Cheltenham Gold cup in the mid-1960s.

Arkle won 27 of his 35 starts and won at distances from 1m 6f up to 3m5f

His feats on the track forced the handicappers to revise the sytem with Arkle himself displaying superiority of metaphysical proportions.

2010 Sizing Europe A E Lynch Henry De Bromhead 6/1

2011 Captain Chris Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs 6/1

2012 Sprinter Sacre Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 8/11 f

2013 Simonsig Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 8/15 f

2014 Western Warhorse Tom Scudamore David Pipe 33/1

2015 Un De Sceaux Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 4/6 f

2016 Douvan Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 1/4 f

2017 Altior Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 1/4 F

2018 Footpad Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 5/6 f

2019 Duc Des Genievres Paul Townend Willie Mullins 5/1

2020 Put The Kettle On Aidan Coleman Henrey De Bromhead 16/1

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
Price – 6 of the last 12 favourites have won, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 9 of the last 12 winners ran within the last 51 days, 11/12 won on their last start before Cheltenham
3/12 winners ran in the Irish Arkle on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
2/12 winners ran in the Game Spirit on their last run, 2 of the 2 won
Previous Course Form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 run at Cheltenham previously, 6/12 had at least 1 win previously at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 8/12 had at least 3 wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 chase win, 8/12 had at least 2 chase wins
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 151 or higher
Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 or grade 2 race
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 8/12 had at least 2 wins that season.

Next Run –
7 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after Cheltenham, 3/12 placed on their next run
2/12 winners ran in the Maghull Novices Chase at Aintree next time out, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
4/12 winners ran in the Ryanair Novices Chase next time out, 3 of the 4 won, 0 placed

Next Cheltenham Festival Run –
6/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Ryanair Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed.

Shiskin was the winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle last season, and has made a very solid start over fences. He has won each race with ease, and has impressed the clock watchers, as well as visual viewers. In reality he hasn't faced anything that would be placed in an Arkle, let alone win, so you'd be backing him on pure potential and strong words from connections. I do believe he has the potential to stalk the leaders, and pick up strongly when asked. I feel he is the most likely winner and do expect him to get to Energumene up the hill.

De Boinville said: "He felt great. They went a proper gallop tday. and it was a real test in that ground.

"I thought his jumping was very accurate, probably the best he has been so far.

"He has come into the race very easily and strode away.

"He can race a bit behind the bridle, but that's just him. I don't think it could have been more simple for him.

"I was happy that he put real distance between himself and the second horse. He's had a good workout there which is ideal for his prep, so onward to Cheltenham."

Energumene comes into this unbeaten over fences in Ireland. He was very impressive on his last start at the Dublin Racing Festival, and is another who I feel hasn't beaten a great deal, so your backing on your eye. I personally feel, that like Appreciate It, he wants 2 and a half miles to be seen at his best, however he clearly has a credible chance here, I wouldn't put anyone off him, he just isn't for me and I personally feel that he may well be picked off by Shiskin on the run in. He does look the best of the rest, and would not be a surprise winner

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 6th Feb, 2021 (1st) I thought that was a helluva performance from a novice. He jumped and galloped and gave no quarter to any horse,. You couldn't ask for anything more, he probably stood a little far back off the last and Paul said he stood a bit far off another fence but other than that it was as good as you'd get from a horse having his third run over fences. He went a good even gallop in front and the time tells you how good a performance it was. I was hoping that the way he gallops and jumps he would be a two-miler but any horse that can do that is going to surprise you. Obviously when you get that type of performance you're delighted as you don't ever expect that. He's every inch a chaser to look at. If you were going to draw a picture of a chaser he's the one you'd draw. W P Mullins

After race at Naas Wed, 13th Jan, 2021 (1st) That was very impressive and his jumping was a key factor. He’s got a great method to jump. W P Mullins

After race at Gowran Park Fri, 20th Nov, 2020 (1st) He loves chasing and Paul was very taken with him which has to be a good sign. We’ll probably find something for him around Christmas,. Paul said he wouldn’t mind going back in trip but he could easily go up in trip as he has a nice relaxed way of galloping. W P Mullins

Allmankind also comes into this with an unbeaten record over fences. Credit where it is due, he has won in style from the front. However, If there is something to take from his hurdles form, it’s his lack of a change of gear, and what little he finds off the bridle. Back up in grade here, when push comes to shove, I do not fancy him to find a great deal, and will likely become a sitting duck for the eventual winner.

"There are three unbeaten horses over fences heading into the Arkle and it's going to be very exciting. It's going to be great fun, I'm really looking forward to it.

"I think a bit better ground and the run he's just had will do him the world of good in a month."

Allmankind runs in the Arkle and obviously the Arkle this year needs no introduction and is hopefully going to live up to its billing and be one of the occasions of the Festival. My horse has been in great form and won his three chases and what more can you ask for. There has been a bit of public scrutiny over his jumping last time, but the ground was horrendous at Warwick and I don't have any qualms about that. There are no complaints and no excuses, and we are looking forward to it. He is a very honest horse and puts everything in and it is going to be a great race.

Captain Guiness travels well, and was going well when brought down in the Supreme. However on previous experience, he doesn't find a great deal off the bridle. I can personally see him trading at a shorter price in running here, however for me he doesn't have the resolve needed in the finish. I can't see him winning a Grade 1.

"He’ll run in the Arkle Challenge Trophy. He’s in great form and schooled really well yesterday. It was frustrating to see him fall in his last start, but he’d jumped really well up to that point. The better the ground, the better his chance". H DB.

In summary, I expect Shishkin to win. Energumene is likely to finish 2nd. With the strong travelling pair of Captain Guinness and Allmakind looking set to fight it out for the 3rd spot.

Ultima Handicap Chase

Winners of this race often take part in the Grand National, although not always in the same year. Horses to have achieved victory in both events include Royal Tan, Team Spirit, West Tip, Seagram and Rough Quest.

If you were looking at market principles for one of the 10 handicaps held at the Cheltenham Festival, and take particular notice of trends and stats then you may want to note that these ultra-competitive races are notoriously tricky for punters to pick the winner, plumping for the SP favourite hasn’t been wise as just 10 had come in front between 2011-2019 with a favourites success rate of just 12 percent.

However last year was particularly fruitful for favourite backers with 5 availing out of the 10 races for a huge 50% success rate.

Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 7-9
Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites have won, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weights – 9 of the last 12 winners weighed between 10st 6lbs & 11st 8lbs
Last Run – 7/12 winners at least placed on their last run before Cheltenham, 9/12 winners had their previous run within the last 45 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over at least 3 miles, 12/12 winners had at least 1 win in a race of 3 miles or more
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 12/12 had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 11/12 winners had a rating of 132 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season

Next Cheltenham Festival Run –
4/12 winners ran in the Trophy Handicap Chase again at the next Cheltenham Festival, 1 of the 4 won, 0 placed.

Happygolucky has a chance here, however not a favourites chance like the price indicates. The rail immediately to his left after the last will help him significantly, as he has a tendency to veer out to his left dramatically in the finish. However, whether he will be bang there at the finish for that to make a difference, I am not so sure. His mark of 147 is fair rather than being lenient. He lacks big field handicap chase experience, though he did go well in the Martin Pipe last year over hurdles, all be it there was a bit of carnage at the end of the race there, and his finishing position was slightly flattering. In summary, he is now considerably under priced, and I would be looking elsewhere. he is a 16/1 chance masquerading at 5/1.

One For The Team is a horse that has targeted this race from a long way out. His mark of 140 is fair on what he has achieved, and he has a squeak. Personally, I was not impressed with his run last time out at Doncaster off a mark of 141 and beaten over 30L. His prior run in the Kauto Star Novices Chase was respectable, as was his run behind Next Destination in a Grade 2. So there are some credible and decent patches of form in there to make you sit and take note of 140, however he does not get his head in front very often and his wins are few and far between. This is the deepest race he has ran in, and far superior to the race at Doncaster where he was found wanting. The jury is out for me.

Lieutenant Rocco has ran in very small field novice chases. He definitely lacks big field handicap experience, and how we adjusts to that is anyone's guess. Due to this, He just isn't one for me, and certainly not at the prices.

Aye Right

My selection in this race is AYE RIGHT
He has a high mark, however it is well deserved. Cloth Cap has franked the form, he has the big field handicap hurdle experience, and I believe that Richard Johnson has been booked for the ride. He is the best horse in this race, it's a very competitive race but I expect him to go well, and he is my personal bet here.

Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle is the most prestigious hurdling event in the National Hunt calendar. Its list of winners features many of the most highly acclaimed hurdlers in the sport's history, and several of these, such as National Spirit, Istabraq, Hatton's Grace, Persian War, Lanzarote and Faugheen, have had races named in their honour.

Since Istabraq completed a hat-trick in 2000, there have been three more dual winners in Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly and Buveur D'Air.

2010 Binocular A P McCoy Nicky Henderson 9/1

2011 Hurricane Fly Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 11/4 f

2012 Rock On Ruby Noel Fehily Paul Nicholls 11/1

2013 Hurricane Fly Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 13/8 f

2014 Jezki Barry Geraghty John Harrington 9/1

2015 Faugheen Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 4/5 f

2016 Annie Power Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 5/2 f

2017 Buveur D'Air Noel Fehily Nicky Henderson 5/1

2018 Buveur D'Air Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 4/6 f

2019 Espoir D'Allen Mark Walsh Gavin Cromwell 16/1

2020 Epatante Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson 2/1f

Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 6 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 11/12 winners won or placed on their last run before the Champion Hurdle, 9/12 won on their last run, 9/12 ran within the last 51 days
3/12 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 0 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Christmas Hurdle on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Contenders Hurdle (Sandown) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
Previous Course Form – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 5/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 had at least 5 wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 had at least 4 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 162 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season

Next Cheltenham Festival Run –
7/12 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle at the next Cheltenham Festival, 1 of the 7 won, 2 placed.

Epatante won this race last year, bolted up on seasonal debut, then subsequently lost her status of invincibility. She won this race last year in very good fashion, however it must be said that it was probably the worst renewal that I have ever seen. It is a tough call on her at the prices - she is the most likely winner, however she may well have to improve on what she did last year to win, and is coming in to the the race on the back of a loss. It is completely price related, however I would be looking to take her on.

“Kempton was disappointing because she was very, very good in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Christmas just didn’t go her way, she wasn’t herself, but fair play to the winner Silver Streak, who was very good and set a proper test, and we were at no stage really in a position to have a crack at him.

“We have a few things ironed out I hope because obviously she is better than that but Silver Streak was very good on the day and we weren’t - but I think we’re back in the right place now.

“Newcastle was a bit of a mess because Silver Streak was taken out with another early on and that emptied the race a fair bit, but take nothing away from her, she was very impressive. She picked up Sceau Royal who was leading to the last and she went past him with so much class.

“She looked wonderful there, and if we’ve got her back there, she’s got as good a chance as any.”

Abacadbras comes into this off the back of his best run of the season when beaten by Honeysuckle. He ran no race at Christmas, however I did like his run at the Dublin Racing Festival where honeysuckle was given a freebie, and won very well. Abacadabras was the only one who closed the gap - a strong pace with cover is what he wants, and what he should get. He would need to show considerable improvement to win.

After race at Punchestown Sun, 15th Nov, 2020 (1st)

I definitely knew he’d improve from Down Royal where he took a blow after the second last. He came forward from the run and he needed to in a race like that. Gordon Elliott

Honeysuckle comes in here off the back of a rout at the Dublin Racing Festival. I do think she was given a freebie, however I'm willing to give credit where it's due, and she has every chance here. Tactics will be interesting, as she is likely to be very prominent and kick for home early. Will something come out of the pack and get past her up the hill? Time will tell! At the prices I would be inclined to take her on.

She just looked like she got a bit lonely going to the last. She's so tough and the lady on top of her is so tough. She really battled it out,” said de Bromhead. “All credit to Petit Mouchoir and Davy Russell, he ran a brilliant race again and Gavin's horse looked very good. “I had my heart in my mouth coming to the line. She probably needed it and our two went at it fairly early. “Talk about adapting to two miles, she seemed brilliant. I thought she jumped well to be fair, maybe at the second Patrick jumped past her. “At the second last I'm not sure if Rachael sat on her and Davy go a good jump or if she make a mistake. I think she was just lonely in front at the last.” “Rachael is brilliant and I always say that we are very lucky to have her. She's just riding out of her skin and the mare is deadly.” When asked where she would go from here he added:- “We'll enjoy today. We've won PCI Irish Champion Hurdle and we can discuss all that in time. I'm delighted to get today behind us.” “We're very lucky to have these horses and get supported by great clients and we have a great team around us.” Henry De Bromhead

After race at Fairyhouse Sun, 29th Nov, 2020 (1st) it was a tougher race than the odds suggested but there is no easy Grade 1. It was great to see her win on her first run back but I'm delighted with the performance. Last year the Irish Champion Hurdle didn't do us any harm so we might look at that but we'll see how she is after today and makes plans. You'd always be tempted by races like the Champion Hurdle (in March) but we'll head for the Irish Champion Hurdle and then maybe we will firm up on plans. Henry De Bromhead

Sharjah IMO has had his chance here. He is a very good horse, however I see him held right up and ridden to come home for a place. This race is far more competitive than last years renewal, he may find it tough to win.

After race at Leopardstown Tue, 29th Dec, 2020 (1st)

He’s some horse and he likes this track. Patrick loves riding him, and the horse responds to him,. It can be very hard to ride a horse like that, the way he rides him, but he has great confidence in him. For a guy his size and weight, he has huge commitment. He does a lot of other work at home, running the yard as assistant trainer. He might be taking my job shortly!. I’d imagine Sharjah will come back here for the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He has a little bit of class about him. He was second last year in the Champion Hurdle, and might have been a little far back then. Saldier ran a great race on his comeback. I thought Saint Roi would finish closer — but Mark said he went for his race too early and he’d like to have sat longer. W P Mullins

Silver Streak is a very admirable horse, a model of consistency, and a lovely horse to own. More prominent tactics saw him beat Epatante last time, and previously I think he was very unlucky not to win, when just behind Song for Someone. If the market leaders aren't at the very best on the day, this lad is very capable of picking up the pieces. He is not to be ruled out.

"The ground is a huge thing and I can't overemphasise that. He has been running some very good races in defeat on ground which isn’t what he wants, but he goes out there and does his best on it, even though he is not getting the purchase he needs.

"I said to Adam, who was riding here after schooling on Christmas Eve, that I want to make the running in the Christmas Hurdle. I said I don’t want to be second or third in a Christmas Hurdle, that means nothing to me. We either go a good gallop and finish last or we roll the dice and get something out of it.

"I had no ambition to be second or third in a Christmas Hurdle, I wanted to win one – and the only way I could see that was to ride him and go a very good gallop. I would say the jockey has played a blinder. I do think he is a Kempton horse, and if you look at his form around Kempton it is outstanding." E Williams

Aspire Tower is a likable horse, that has ran very well this season in the Irish trials. He is lightly raced and open to further improvement. Given a break to come in here fresh, it is possible that he may go well. I quite like him, however it is a tall ask. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him EW, however such as the standard of this race, you could run 5th or 6th and have ran a stormer.

“Delighted with that.

“He was so good at Christmas last year and I just felt after that his form just didn’t look as good. He’s a big four-year-old and he had only just come off the flat and maybe everything caught up with him a little bit as the season went on.

“The lads were right - we gave him a really good break and it is fantastic that he comes back like that.

“Rachael (Blackmore) was brilliant on him, he is tough out and he did it the hard way on his first run since March.

“I’m delighted with Jason (The Militant) as well, he ran really well and Paul (Townend) thought he would come on from that.”

When asked if he would be training Aspire Tower like a Champion Hurdle horse now, he replied: “I think he is entitled to certainly step up again. I’ll speak to the lads and see what everyone wants to do.

Goshen has come back in to the equation here after a small field romp, it is hard to knock the consistent form of Song for Someone, who was destroyed in behind there. Goshen would be very dangerous here, if he was allowed to dictate and get a soft lead, if something managed to take the lead and slow it down, or indeed go with him stride for stride, that may see him vulnerable in the final portion of the race, as he is a very keen going sort, and this is the strongest race he has ran in, by a long stretch.

“He's entitled to take his chance now on what he's done here.

“I always wonder if horses underachieved – like Song For Someone – but I'll take nothing away from Goshen today. He deserves it. Cheltenham won't be easy but I haven't taken him away from home since he last ran so you'd think he's got to take a step forward from this.

“Fortunately he's a fairly clear-winded horse but surely he must improve fitness-wise as there's nothing like a run.”

James Du Berlais please see the following Article. The Journey From France – Scooby 91 racing tips. (scooby91horseracingtips.com)

"We've been watching James Du Berlais in France for the last 18 months and trying to buy him. They wouldn't sell and they were looking for a lot of money. Then, out of the blue, Simon [Munir] and Isaac [Souede] stepped in and did a deal with the trainer in France. The deal was for the horse to come over to Ireland after his four-year-old season was finished and that's what happened. They rang me and asked would I like to train him. That was a very pleasant surprise to get that call.

"He's been bought as a novice chaser, but let's run him in the Champion Hurdle and see what he's like. I was surprised when I saw his rating of 167. That really puts him in the Champion Hurdle picture. He jumps, he stays, he's got everything you want.

"He can be a tough ride from what I saw of him in France, but we'll know a lot more about him in the next two weeks because we will be asking him questions that we have not asked him before.

I did intend to put up James Du Berlais EW for this, however he has now found his price, My selection here at current prices would be Aspire Tower EW at 20/1 with William Hill. They are sticking their neck out on him, and I do believe he is overpriced. He is open to further improvement, and looks solid to go well and give you a run for your money

Mares Hurdle

The Willie Mullins' trained Quevega earned legendary status by becoming the first horse to win at the Cheltenham Festival six years in a row - landing the Mares' Hurdle between 2009 and 2014.

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5-7
Price – 7 of the last 12 winners have been favourite, 11/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 9/12 winners won on their last run before the Mares Hurdle, 7/12 winners ran within the last 52 days
Previous Course Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 5/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 had at least 3 previous wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Grade 1-3 race

Concertista won the Mares Novice Hurdle last season and comes into this race as a strong favourite. I personally think that Honeysuckle or Benie Des Dieux would beat her, however they are not here, and the race looks far easier as a result. She has won the trials for this race in Ireland, looking much the best of that fairly average bunch of mares. I personally couldn't touch her at the prices, but it would be absolutely no shock to see her win this, With the trainers record, her style of victory, and the lack of opposition, she is the one to beat, however I personally have not taken to her, and for me it's a poor race, that is either one to watch, or in my case, one to walk the dog.

"She’s in great form. We changed a good few things in terms of how we worked her just before Cheltenham last year and that seemed to suit her very well, so we’ve been working her like that from the start of this season. The way she handled the track last year was fantastic and we’re looking forward to running her in the Mares’ Hurdle"

Black Tears may well follow her home, At current prices, there is not a great deal of value in that with 1/5 of the odds for a place, a match bet on the day against Dame de Compagnie may make this race of interest to me.

Jockey Jack Kennedy said: “It was very straightforward. She jumped and travelled well.

“She picked off the leader easily and was idle up the straight. She jumped very well.”

Roksana is a classy horse who ideally wants further. She looks solid to be placed, However Concertista is by far the most likely winner. I personally feel that Roksana should be in the Stayers Hurdle, however with the big 2 missing here, I do see why it makes sense to run here.

"At the moment I am thinking of running her in the Mares’ race. That's where I would like to run but obviously the ground would be the deciding factor. Willie Mullins's Concertista needs a lot of respect but Roksana has the proven level and I think that is the level that sets the standard. In the Stayers’ you have two that we took on at Christmas time in the Long Walk (Paisley Park and Thyme Hill) that we didn't beat but that may not always be the case and on the day, you can get a different result. Though we are looking down the mares’ route at the moment. We have learnt everything about her, and she is in the best form she has ever been in her life". D skelton

Dame de Compagnie I would be considering laying in the place market. The reason being, that she took all of the 2m5 to get up in the coral cup last year, I believe this trip is on the short side for her, and I do not think she quite has the class to get away with it in this race. She may steal 3rd or she may well be unplaced. I am thinking the latter atm.

"We were bit short of opportunities over fences and I had to throw her into a Grade 1 which was a bit of a baptism for her and she actually got brought down at the end. I think she is very likely to come back for the Mares' Hurdle. She is in very good form and the fall did her no harm. I can't see why she can't come back over hurdles and two and a half as she showed in the Coral Cup last year is her trip. I think it is a good call for the time being. We can go back over fences but she is not ready for the Mares' Chase yet". N J Henderson

Boodles (Fred Winter)

The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – often called the Fred Winter in reference to the late champion jockey and trainer in who's honour it was originally named – is restricted to four-year-olds and is designed to provide an alternative option for horses who might not quite fit the standard of the Triumph Hurdle.

Leading trainers (3 wins):

Paul Nicholls – Sanctuaire (2010), Qualando (2015), Diego du Charmil (2016)
Gordon Elliott - Flaxen Flare (2013), Veneer of Charm (2018), Aramax (2020)

Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites have won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Weight – 9/12 winners weighed between 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb
Last Run – 5/12 winners won on their last run before the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, 10/12 winners had their last run within the last 32 days
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 15-17 furlongs, 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated between 125 and 134
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Busselton his mark is good, his form is good, he would have a chance here. Imo I think his best chance would be to attempt to make all, or at least be very prominent and go for home early. He had Zanahiyr at it with similar tactics.

The Boodles will obviously be calmer waters for him and looks the likelier option at this stage. I’ve been very happy with him since the Dublin Racing Festival and I’d be hopeful that there is more to come from him.

Saint Sam is right up there vying for the best of these if it was level weights. He has a strong chance, and is very capable of winning this off his mark. I personally just couldn't back at the price and would elect to take him on.

"We’d be aiming him at the Triumph Hurdle. He has an entry in the Boodles and I’ll have a chat with connections and see what happens". W P Mullins

Houx Gris I know pretty well from France. He was very tenderly handled last time after making a mistake in a good race, therefore imo he is around 7 pounds well in here. He's around a mid 130s horse running off 128. However there are plenty in here with potential to improve on there current mark's. Houx Gris imo is now considerably under priced, and I'm happy to take him on.

"He was third in a Grade 1 at Chepstow for us on very heavy ground and won at Auteuil the time before. I probably ran him a bit too quick after we bought him, but he did run nicely. He galloped nicely this morning and off 128 in the Boodles he would have a nice chance. He's a lovely horse". P Nicholls

Druids Altar I would not be a big fan of, imo he is a weak finisher, that is fairly exposed. I do not see him closely involved at the finish.

He’ll run in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. He’s in good form since he won the same race that Band Of Outlaws won at Naas on his way to Cheltenham. He has a much more exposed profile than that one had at the time, but I wouldn’t rule him out of calculations.

Glorious Zoff has been well noted all season for this and has been touted from a long way out. He has also been mentioned on preview nights. I do not believe his claims are as strong as they are made out to be at all, I do not expect him to feature here, his form is poor and for me he is one to completely avoid.

Coltor is open to improvement for his very shrewd trainer Dermot Weld, I don't believe that we have seen the best of him yet, though I do believe there are better horses in this race here. Long -Term he is one to note in handicap hurdles for sure.

“We are lucky to be here I suppose. It’s winter ground but it’s not bottomless and I was surprised it wasn’t a lot worse.

“He stuck it out well in fairness to him. He’d the experience of two runs which was a big help.

“He’ll probably appreciate a bit of nicer ground but he handled that as well as you’d expect him to.”

Youmdor has been left in here off a mark of 141. I personally do not believe in the handicapping system or the stats to a point where a couple of pounds would put me off a 500Kg+ horse. So I may be putting up a non runner here, However the 14/1 EW NRNB and 5 Places with Betfred is very fair. It was in the balance between himself and what I believe to be a smart and underrated horse in Teahupoo, then last time he made a couple of early novicey mistakes at the wrong time and was heavily eased in a tough race. Looking at what has been declared at the 5 day stage, Youmdor is the one that stands out for me at current prices and would be my selection. Should he not run, I would give a tentive nod to Busselton and hope he is ridden both very prominently, and to kick for home early.

National Hunt Chase

The Cheltenham Festival originated in 1860 when the National Hunt Chase was first held at Market Harborough. It was initially titled the Grand National Hunt Meeting, and took place at several locations since its institution. At the turn of the 20th century it was mostly held at Warwick, However In 1904 and 1905 it was staged at Cheltenham over a new course established at Prestbury Park in 1902.

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 52 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, only 2 had a previous win at Cheltenham
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over at least 3 miles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over at least 3 miles
Previous Chase Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 139 or higher
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Galvin is a good horse, with a fair task on, and this is the best race he has ran in for sure. What he has done this season is good for the fact that he has gained valuable experience. He has beaten ok horses, and comes into this race fresh. He will have a decent chance, but this race looks a fair bit stronger than anticipated by connections, therefore I would not advise backing him heavily at current prices.

“It was great and he's getting the hang of things. It wasn't the toughest of races but he's coping with things an awful lot better now,” said Russell.

Royal Pagaille is a worthy favourite here. He stays the trip beautifully, has big field experience, he's rated highly - He has everything you would want. However, he is very short for a horse who jumps so low, and is open to ploughing through a fence. On the positive side, it hasn't stopped him yet, or scuppered either his momentum or his finishing effort.

If you break down what he has beaten, they are exposed handicappers that likely wouldn't be winning this race, and there are horses in here that are both open to significant improvement, and that have been in graded company, so he is no certainty.

“You’d have to be delighted with what he did at Haydock and the style he did it, but I do think it’s very important to put it into the context of what he beat on the day. The second-favourite was a non-runner, the third-favourite unseated before the business end of the race. The horse that finished second was well beaten in the veterans’ race earlier in the month. So let’s not get carried away.”

Escaria Ten is in here, and is a fair horse, though not currently a VERY good one, and VERY good is what it may take to beat the front pair of Royal Pagaille and Galvin here. He is unexposed and open to further improvement, which he needs to find some with the step up in trip here. However he did stay on well there so he may find more. For me that form is debatable, Pencilfuloflead gave the front two a lot of weight, and made a few mistakes early on that he paid for late. I do not believe he ran to his best so that would leave the front pair with questions to answer. For me Escaria Ten is best watched.

"He put in a great round of jumping and he is a nice horse. Hopefully he can keep progressing from that,” reported Kennedy.

"He ran well in Fairyhouse the last day over 2m5f and the step up to three miles really suited him."

Lord Royal I personally can’t have here. He has done little, and if he wasn't trained by Willie, he would be 3 times the odds and of little interest to anyone. He came to Willie’s last season via France where he ran on the flat. I do not see him as a natural jumper. For me he is a poor mans Allaho, who needs to be more aggressively ridden over 2m5 -3m. I see the 3m4f trip as a big question mark that he needs to answer. I could not back him here myself.

My selection here would be Galvin, he is not one to go heavy on, however I couldn't back the fav at the prices, and nothing in behind interests me.

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