Just a reminder, As planned from the start, there will no longer be FREE DAILY racing tips from the 1st october. The thread will be locked to members only as per the chelt thread. If anyone would like to reinvest there winnings to join the service, please feel free to PM me. @scooby91tips
Total Stakes 192pts +129.08pts. +72.44% ROI as of 28th september.
+£2581.60 to a £20 stake
Leopardstown 4.30 Too soon to panic 6/1 bet365 0.5 PTS EW I like federica Sophia of dermot weld who chased home too soon to panic before landing her maiden. Too soon to panic managed to beat her before going on to run in a strong handicap, the form of that race last time out with Elizabethofaragon and wilderness is very solid with both the above coming in to that race with resounding wins. I see no reason why bella Brazil will turn around that form here. In that race The likes of katiba was back in 6th there, so Imo the race has a strong look to it and should work out well at this level. Therefore I’m willing to take a chance on too soon to panic being good enough to be involved at the business end of the race here and confirm her superiority over bella Brazil. +0.1
Shades of blue
2pts win @5/2 Paddy power
Shades of blue imo is the best of these. She has been tried highly in the past, and drops down to the easiest race she’s ran in since last year, where she came 2nd in the very same race.
To my eye, This years renewal looks weaker than last years, The ground is no issue , she should be fully fit, and this is most definitely her trip.
They’ve opted for the first time headgear here, There are no excuses, quite simply I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t win. -2
1pt EW 5/1 William Hill 4 places HMS president has been running very solid races in considerably better handicaps than this. Hes in here at class 4 level, his form reads well, and he should be very competitive here. I’ll be disappointed if hes out the 4, with him having a very credible win chance. Mafia power looks to be a clear danger, he was hampered last time after going up 10 pounds to a mark of 85 for winning a class 5 nicely. However, HMS president is the one for me here. +0
4.15 dundalk Baby Zeus @11/2 1pt EW (4 places 1/4) bet365. His form is very solid, his run last time when finishing 3rd behind the smart red Kelly, has been massively cranked by sunchart and emperor of the sun. Baby Zeus should be very competitive here off a mark of 91. Broke slowly, given no chance. -2
Caroline dale 1.5pts EW at 7/2 betvictor
Sardinia sunset 1 pt EW @13/2 (hills) they both have very solid form, although sardinia sunset was well held last time out, it was in a strong race which has little comparison to this. With her sights lowered here, i expect her to uphold the form with country carnival which should see her into the places, caroline dale has ran a stormer every race and has finished just in front of sardinia sunset at a higher level, this is the weakest contest she’s ran in imo. There are plenty of unexposed winners in the race, however our 2 selections set the standard that they have to rise to, imo I expect both to go well here, we could easily have a win and a place. -2.19
1.00 tipperary Voice of hope 0.5 pts ew 8/1 bet365 voice of hope was rated 74 on the flat at his peak, and couldn’t get anywhere bear the places in handicaps off Mark’s in the high 60s. He made his hurdles debut finishing 6th. 11L behind little brother at balinrobe. He made a little bit of a mess of the last and faded to 6th on the run in. This is a really poor race, if he benefits for the experiance and has a clear round, hes shown as least as much on that start as the rest of them have before, while he’s open to further improvement and any, could well see him go close -1 Fell
2.45 York Sir busker 13/2 1pt EW Paddy power 5 places for reasoning please see the July thread. Nothings changed since then. +0.63
York 3.15 one voice 13/2 1pt win insurebet 2 places (money back if 2nd) william hill. I’d be in the big minority here. But I dont think love is the superstar that people are making out. I strongly question what she has beaten to date. Therefore i’m willing to take her on with one voice, with the backup of money back if she is 2nd. She’s the best horse love has faced this season imo, the step up in trip will suit, and I wouldnt be surprised at all if she gives love something to think about here. -1
Roca Roma 4/1
1pt EW 4/1 bet365. She showed alot of talent on debut and is obviously highly regarded from both the entries in which she’s taken up, and the supplementary fee paid to put her into the irish 1000 guineas. She ran poorly last time, but managed to drop 2 pounds down to a mark of 90. this is a big drop in grade, of which she should strongly appreciate . It would be disappointing if she can’t show up well here. +5
York 3.45 friday Dingle 0.5pts EW 10/1 William hill. Dingle showed promise on his debut. Then was put set to line up in a race which richard hannon uses at goodwood for nice types. He was the better fancied of the 2 hannon had declared for the race, with the other who was left in to run, duly running a stormer. The reason he was a nr there was due to the ground being on the firm side, there are no such issues here. I’d be hoping he’d be able to leave his debut form behind and go well here. +0.75
2.50 naas Giorgio Vasari 18/1 0.5 pts EW (4 places) William hill he was on a steep upward curve before running in what imo was the strongest 2yo race of the season. There was no shame in the result there, such as the competitive nature of the race. Although this is deeper than the races which he has won previously, I’d still like to think that he can continue on an upward curve here and be involved. He should be prominent and be bang there with 2f to go, hopefully he can see out his race and not be ran out of the 4 here. It wouldnt be a complete shock to me, if he manage to keep his head infront. -1
3.05 sandown. billesden brook. 1pt EW at 5/1 betvictor. She should be very competitive here, she should be staying on late, and I’d be hopeful that she can get up in the shadow of the post. +0
2.20 naas Baby zeus 1pt EW 5/1 (5 places) Bet victor. Please see last time.
Hopefully this time baby zeus will break better from the stalls and just as importantly he can be put into a better position during the early stages of the race, so that he will have a win chance. -2
5.27 dieppe. Horse maha 1.5pts EW 4/1 bet365. He was going very well on debut when he outjumped the horse infront, and subsequently unseated via going into the back of him. I’d be confident that he would have gone very close there. Last time out he was held right up and made up a huge ammount of ground once the leaders had already flown for home, imo with a more prominent ride, he should be going very close here. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s out the 3, and wont be surprised at all if he puts his prior experience to good use and can get of the mark in the juvenile hurdling ranks. +7.5
15/2 EW (4 places)
1pt EW I like golden horde alot, he’ll go out and attempt to make all, he didn’t appreciate the step up in distance last time, and imo he has a bit about him, where when something comes to him, to date hes been pretty generous with what he finds off the bridle. I’d be hopeful that in a very competitive race, that he can find for pressure and may be able to steal this and just stay infront at the line. +0.88
la teste de buch
1pt EW @4/1
Paddy power. He has ran very consistently at a good level, his last 2 runs were imo in stronger races than today. Hes closely matched with the fav ziegfred on a line through natural path. I personally dont thing Ziefried progressed his form to win last time, I think it was an average race compared to the one which Charlesquint ran in. Arguably charlesquint did more there in finishing 3rd. I think the prior form of the pair is the best in the race, and subsequently I’ll be disappointed if charlesquint finishes out the 3, I wont be surprised at all if he managed to get his head infront here. -0.2
4.00 longchamp Grocer jack W/O hurricane dream and dawn intello. 9/2 1 pt win. Bet 365. I have the 2 that we’re betting without as the best of the french, hurricane dream shades it and is the one to beat imo. Grocer jack the german raider boasts some smart form (receiving weight) with the likes of barney Roy and nagano gold. Having previously ran a stormer finishing 4th in the german derby (with drugs in his system). That form may leave him infront of the chasing pack. Maybe even infront of the 2 were betting without. So at 9/2 I think it’s worth taking a small chance on him being good enough without what I perceive to be the best 2 of the french. If my interpretation of the form book is correct, Imo you’re basically getting 9/2 on grocer jack in a match bet to beat fantastic spirit. -1
6/1 william hill althiqa has been a model of consistency, this is her grade and imo herself and cloak of spirits have the pick of the form, at 6/1 i believe that althiqa is the best value in the race, I’d be disappointed if she is out of the 4, and not surprised at all, if she manages to get her head Infront here. +0.2
5.30 cork. Ace aussie 13/2 bet365 1pt EW I have respect for colotlir sergeant, it wont be long before he will be winning his maiden, however he hasn’t managed to win yet yet he’s priced accordingly. The form of ace aussie debut has worked out very well indeed, I like Wembley and mac Swinney alot with the pair finishing just behind our selection here, Ace aussie has the best form on offer priced up at 13/2. Any improvement at all, should see him go very close. +6.09
Longchamp 4.55. Gannat. 1pt EW bet365 4/1
She has ran well giving away weight, before winning nicely last time against a few of these which face her again today, this is more competative, however imo the terms of today’s very competitive race makes her well treated and gives her every chance of getting her head infront here.
Both Gannat and her stablemate Genola I’m lead to believe are open for private sale, and regardless of that, they are being targeted towards the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival for current trainer Alain couetil. He has rolled the dice today however regardless of todays result, The pair of them are worth noting as they come out of bumper company into mares novice hurdle races in the near future. Either or both may even end up in a top yard on these shores shortly. +4.8
Frenetic 1pt EW 7/1 (4 places)
Skybet. I really like frenetic, on a line through miss amulet, I dont see why she is 7/1 here. I see frenetic as more of 7/2 chance myself. Her form is rock solid, i see no excuses why she cant perform at her best, and I’ll be disappointed if she is out of the 4 here . I think she’ll go close. -2
2.00 leopardstown. No speak Alexander 0.5pts EW 5/1. Unibet (if you have the option to use 1 or more uni-boosts to suit your stake, avail and take 11/2) Her forms solid, her win on her 2nd start was no fluke, she won it nicely and the 2nd has gone on the win a group 3. Her run in france last time was of a good standard. I see no excuses here, quite simply Imo She should be going close in this company. +0
2.55 longchamp. English king 11/2 (888 sport)1pt EW Mogul 7/1 1 pt EW (coral) imo on the balance of all their form they are the 2 best horses in the race, i see no reason why they cant perform to their best, and I believe they are both overpriced, imo serpentine was given a very soft lead at Epsom and was subsequently flattered, so we’re going in here double handed looking for a win AND a place. I’ll be disappointed if neither goes very close. +6.75
Hype 0.5 pts EW
6/1 bet365 hype was running a very solid race in what imo was the strongest maiden of the year, when he got badly hampered, lost all momentum then still finished handily in 8th place. imo he he would have finished a close enough 4th or 5th there. The form of the race is absolutely rock solid, even 8th looks good in this context. So I’d be very hopeful that he can go well here, confirm the promise that he showed on debut and be involved in the business end of the race. +0.1
8.30 dundalk Bolivar 3/1 bet 365 1pt win. We backed him in his maiden at 12/1 and he followed up again nicely next time. I dont think that he’s a certainty here, however I think he is value at 3/1. I have respect for order of Australia, he has ran in high quality races with great credit. But where I think the value with bolivar lies is that he could be allowed a freebie out front here, if allowed to dictate, in my eyes he would become automatic fav in running, he sees out his races well and is not going to fall into a hole. I believe he is still progressing, I’d be hopeful that he can take this and move on to bigger and better things, he was taken out of a group 3 last week due to the ground, that’s the sort of level i believe he is. If that’s correct, he should be going very close here. -1
2.00 Gowran La Jaconde 0.5pts EW 5/1 bet365 she may be 2nd string on jockey bookings, but certainly isn’t on race course form. Her maiden has worked out very well indeed. She stated in well in the closing stages of the race, I’d like to think she will have learned alot there and will strip sharper for the run. She should have a very credible chance of being involved at the business end of the race. –1
ETNAYA 5/1 1 PT EW Bet365
EPONA PLAYS 1 PT EW Bet365
4 Pts Total.
We’re going in double handed, looking for a win AND a place. +6
3.10 listowel Cerberus 1pt win 10/3 (hills / betvictor) firstly it’s worth noting that fujimoto flyer planted her feet and refused to race at auteuil, she diddnt look like she wanted to be there against solo either, so although she has talent, I’ll be ruling her out straight away for the foreseeable future. Cerberus however, jumps very well, contrary to the report below, I believe him to be a pretty uncomplicated ride, he has had a recent run and should be in decent shape. A mark of 138 without being lenient is fine as he’s the best horse in the race. I believe he possesses the experience and class to go very close. The stewards report below, is an interesting piece of reading. I personal think they have had this race in mind all along and expect him to go well here. -1
0.5pts EW 11/2 bet 365 figuero was extremely progressive before disappointing last time, I’d be of the opinion that he is worth another chance here. It’s a tough race, however if he puts in the performance he did on any of his 2 runs prior to last time, he should be strongly involved here. +3.44
4.30 listowel Ravenhill 0.5pts EW (5 places) 8/1 Hills/ Boyle’s . He is solid, he finished 2nd in this last year, he won the national hunt chase even though conditions may not have been to his liking, hes an uncomplicated ride who jumps well. And this is both his type of race and his level. Everything seems good But his mark of 153 is too high. However, Gordon has teamed up with Mr R James who won the trainer the Kim muir, to take a very valuable 7 pounds off his back. Imo he’s well worth his claim and he can make all the difference here. I expect ravenhill to go well and hopefully be involved at the business end of a very competitive race. As I’m typing this, he has drifted and the 10/1 with paddy power and the extra place is well worth taking. For recording purposes I’ll stick with the 8s that it was when I posted on Twitter. Fell. -1
4.15 Perth. La bague au roi 1pt win 9/4 888sport. ALL BUT FELL
3.25 perth. Stoners choice. 2pts EW 11/4 bet365. Has rock solid form in this context. The right handed track in this company looks exactly what’s required, he Should go extremely close here. And I’d be distraught if hes out of the places. Which would give a decent portion back should he manage to get beat in the finish. +6.88
3.20 listowel Meanformhair 0.5pts win 8/1 Tresorier 0.5 pts win 8/1 Bet365 tresorier is in fine form, he finished 2nd at a big price then backed that up by winning next time out. He hasnt yet managed to win over this trip, however If he continues his sharp incline, he should be involved here. -1
Meanfomhair has very solid form at this level, he slightly disappointed as fav last time, however now it is more than factored into his price. Imo he should go off the likely fav. Good chance.
3.45 compiegne. Fusion de baune has ran consistently to a good level in france. and although francois nicolle has a decent winning pair in here, I believe that gardes la monnaie is over rated and has ran against lesser opposition to what fusion de baune has. His other runner falbala des motttes remains the one to beat. However collateral form dosent leave us far behind if fusion de baune runs to the best of her ability. We may well be going in on her EW here. I’m currently awaiting other books to add to the market. I’m not advising just yet. But keep an eye out.
Cloak of spirits
1pt EW (5 places)
11/2 SkyBet/hills she has the best form in the race, and also comes out best at the weights. Although imo 7f may be a slightly better trip for her, conditions here over a mile are in her favour. She holds foorat on French form, althiqa has showed that to be the pick of the form available, and that gives cloak of spirits a very solid ew chance here. Imo she should be a bet to nothing for the win. With the 5 places as a fallback. It would be no surprise to see her get her head infront. +6.8
Betfred/ unibet….. imo lucky Vega is a solid betting prospect here on the back of his irish form, I believe he has ran in very strong races, compared to some of the opposition which imo have beaten average horses by a distance. Lucky vega, despite the name, was unlucky himself last time, he didn’t get a clear run. His prior form says to me, that he would have been involved there. At current prices of 4/1, I believe that underestimates his chances of winning. Imo he should be a general 9/4 5/2 chance. Therefore we are going in here with a solid chance of getting the win. I see him arriving late to be bang there at the business end of the race. I’ll be very disappointed if he is out of the 3. -0.2
4.05 Auteuil. James Du Berlais 7/4 bet365 1pt win. I like this lad alot, he is rock solid, progressive, and imo one of the most exciting young hurdlers in france. I cant wait to see him go novice chasing, but back to the task ahead tomorrow over hurdles. I’m surprised that he has opened up at 7/4. imo this is more than fair. I see him as an even money chance. He has improved with each run, jumps, travels and finishes out his races well, I expect him to go extremely close here. -1
Curragh 3.05 Vocito 0.5pts EW 9/1 bet365. Before I talk about vocito. dearf jazz (20/1) is worth noting as I saw what the trainer did with red Pantz, he has done exactly the same here. 3 runs in maidens. 2 pounds over weight each time, and now 1st time in a handicap with the 7 pound claimer on board. Kf anyone wanted a small win bet, i wouldnt knock it, alternatively it’s worth noting should it come off, as I’m liking what james m barrett is doing. Now on to VOCITO the magnanimous form is good, the 4th snowy owl has had some very nice entries, and has been backed accordingly. Vocito finished just infront of him last time, while managing to keep the mark of 74. I’m happy with this, in this context of race, I see it as a winnable mark, I would be hoping that vocito can be involved at the business end of the race. -1
Just to note.
There is likely another selection today in the 2.00 at curragh.
Angel palm 2.00 curragh 1pt EW 11/2 bet365 I have been patiently waiting on her drifting out to the current price of 11/2. I like her. She dissapointed on debut, imo as there wasn’t enough pace on, staying will be her forte and she sees out the trip very well at the distance. However that form has worked out well, so she should be marked up on that effort. On her next start she confirmed her promise, and duly won her maiden nicely. This is a big step up in class, however I am of the opinion that she is on the incline. There should be pace in the race, I see further improvement from angel palm and I expect her to be involved here at the business end of the race. I also think she will likely go up to the mile after this, which imo would see further improvement. -2
4.50 bath. Zulu zander 0.5pts EW 8/1 bet365 (4 places) bath being my local track, I know Zulu zander pretty well, one of the main things at bath, is you need to handle the quick ground conditions, this is no problem for zulu zander. He won a decent race there after shaping well in the broclesby beforehand. In total he has been to the track 4 times, and has ran well on each occasion. He has dropped right down the handicap to 67 and has william Buick in the saddle here. The drop In grade down to class 6, the lowest mark he has ran off, the conditions to suit at the track he performs his best. All lead me to believe that he is overpriced here and i make him a bet. +5