Running Total for June. Stakes 74pts +47.71pts. +64.67% ROI as of 27th June.
Billesdon Brook 2pt win @9/2(unib)
She doesn’t have a great record first time out, however she has always re-appeared into better company than this and she has never been in better form than she was in at the tail end of last season. There should be plenty of pace on here She’s going to travel in mid division, potentially follow scentasia through and needs a gap to open up late to finish stronger than her rival. – 2
2pt win @4/1(B365)
On the other end of the scale, Nazeef is very unexposed, she easily beat the very consistent salayel by 6 lengths when last seen, which is a big upturn in her form and shows she is very much on the incline. she is receiving 7 pounds from Billesdon Brook here and 3 pounds from her more experienced stablemate scentasia. Stall 13 normally wouldn’t make things easy, however it will give her time to get into a rythhym and like Billesdon Brook she possesses a sharp turn of foot, with the pace infront of her set to suit. +8
Troubador 1pt EW @10/1 1/5 4P (coral)
Had a lot of runs and progressed throughout the season last year. His run at york finishing 2nd when giving 7 pounds and a beating to rose of kildare reads well. And trying to give 9 pounds to summer sands in the red car trophy was a very lofty task which he came out of with great credit. He doesn’t have the group class form of other contenders here but I believe his form is under rated and he gets his chance off level weights. – 2
Glasvegas 0.5pt win @28/1 (Hills)
Caught the eye in the windsor castle stakes finishing just being platinum star finishing well over 5f and looking like a step up in trip was to be on the cards. He ran last time out in the Redcar trophy where he was well fancied and ran poorly, he may not have handled the underfoot conditions and I’m willing to give him a chance here. Imo he’s not an EW prospect as he’s either on a going day, or may not travel and get into the race. I think he’s worth a small shot at causing a shock. Needs to drop in grade. – 1
5th June Newmarket 3.00
Momkin 1pt EW 12/1 (4 places sky)
Finished 10th in last year’s guineas before running in the Jersey where he was held up and taking a passage through when he got hampered and lost his chance. Imo he was running into the places. He was then beaten on his next 2 starts by dukes of hazzard who went on to Frank the form winning a group 2 in the celebration mile. Momkins final start came in a group 3 over 7f duly Running on well at the finish without quite being able to get to suedois who is a consistent 7f specialist.
A step up in trip to a Mile here in a strong ran listed race should be exactly what he requires, if he manages to pick up where he left off last season he should be finishing well and in the shake up at the tail end of the race. – 2
6th June shades of blue 1.50 Newm 8/1 (bet365) 2pts EW. I actually backed shades of blue last year in the prix de l’abbaye where I though she had an outside chance of being involved in the finish of a group 1 until conditions deteriated and her first run on very soft ground ended in minor disappointment. . The winner of that race glass slippers finished behind her previously in the group 3 summer stakes which showed she was capable to be in the mix.
Shades of blue on her next start was narrowly beaten by perfection in a listed race, who herself had only just been narrowly beaten by Billesdon Brook at group 3 level who was very much in peak form. Imo the form of shades of blue is strong enough in context to this race, (even though it is a group 3) and she is still herself still unexposed to more improvement. I’m expecting her to be involved in the finish here, and hopefully progress to get another shot at a group 1 later in the season. Slowly away, Bad positioning throughout. ultimately given no chance. one to keep an eye on for future entries. – 4
Jouska 5.20 Newmarket 12/1 (coral) 0.75pt EW. Jouska will be having her first run in handicap company with an alloted mark of 98 which I believe is fair. In Her last run she was crying out for a step up in trip back to 6f which she gets here. She was ridden along and stayed on well late in the race to finish 3rd, 1 place behind one of our horses to follow in pistoletto. She has ran in good company against the likes of mislisle and another of our horses to follow in dark lady. Although she is near the top of the weights there is nothing of outstanding quality In opposition and I would like to think over the 6f here with a little luck in running she has the ability to be able to come home late into the money and potentially pick up the leaders. – 1.5
7th June 4.35 haydock 11/2, 2pt win (PP/BF) Liberty beach ran last year in the molecombe where she did not get the best passage through the race as a few horses got in her way, but she showed once again a very potent change of gear. She was pulled out, found the gap, and off she went. She Then went on to run over 6f in the lowther, running on in the final furlong, not quite able to get to living inthepast. I believe that she is worth persisting with over the 6f which she gets today, all her best work is done late so she will be worth watching at the end of the race as she picks her way through and hopefully gets to the leader. +11
8th June 5.05 Naas. Pistoletto 10/1 Hills 2pt win. as per the 3yos to follow……. Pistoletto Ran very well in the Weatherbys Racing Bank 300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster and was well in contention before tiring, showing that a drop in trip would see him in a better light. He was well gambled on and disappointed next time out over 6f. But on his final start dropped to 5f in a group 3 at Newmarket he went down by just a neck to good vibes. I could see him winning a simular contest this season at the minimum trip. Whether he starts back over 6f and then drops in trip again as the season progresses, 5f is where I see him able to put in his best performance. If he does start over 6f he may well go un noticed and be of good value when he does drop to the minimum trip.
He is sporting 1st time blinkers here over the minimum trio of 5f so there is every chance he is going to bounce out and try to make all in the way I have been waiting for. Hopefully that will be rewarded here – 2
8th Haydock 3.15 9/1 Hills 1 pt win JM Jackson once thought off as highly as raffle prize, JM Jackson has now found herself at class 4 handicap level. An opening mark of 80 for her introduction to this level seems very much on the lenient side to me, although a trip of over 7f on paper may be as far as she wants to go, the drop in class could well do the trick where her opening price of 9/1 looks generous on her to do so. – 1
Glen force 2.15 haydock. 1pt EW @ 7/1. B365. his 1st run in handicap after 2 very credible runs in Novice races for Mark Prescott. He disappointed last time out when an even money shot, however that did the trick in getting him in here off a mark of 79. With a switch to turf and the drop in grade more to his liking, I’m hoping he can lay up a little more prominent throughout the race and make ammends here. +0.4
Caidok navan 2.30 12/1 (365) 1 pt EW
Mick halford had a 13% strike rate with 2yos last year. Which yielded a profit of 13.25 pts to level stakes. His horses are often overlooked as debutants, however the quality in which he is receiving is slowly going up, year after year, imo he is a stable worth keeping an eye on.
This looks a maiden of quality however caidok is not lacking it himself, although in lesser known colours, he was a 175,000gns purchase as a foal. Is Reportedly working well, showing plenty of pace and I’d be hopeful he’ll be good enough to get involved over the minimum trip of 5f first time up here. – 2
13th June. 12.15am
Currently been waiting all day for a drift on well of wisdom in the 2.05 at Sandown. 9/2 2pt EW. Despite being top weight he has some very good form on his travels, and should be fit enough today. Giving over a stone to the fav won’t be easy work, however he has a credible win chance with it hard for me to see him out of the frame. Oh purple reign is one to note in the race, he has come down to a mark of 95, it won’t be long before he reaches a mark he can win off. He wants atleast 7f. He’s not a pretty watch as he’s ridden away early, however he keeps finding off the bridle and is certainly not one to be laying in running if he looks beaten. +10.8
13th June Mrs bouquet 2.30 Goodwood 5/1 (lads) 1pt EW. Mrs bouquet had sove very solid form last season, working her way up from nurseries, and progressing to win a conditions race at goodwood over 5f, finishing the race well, she comfortably beat r faheys mighty spirit, who has subsequently ran well at listed level when finishing 5th beaten under 2L. And was 2nd in a similar conditions race, where the winner went on to win at listed level in France. The way Mrs bouquet finishes her races, the step back up to 6f will be very much to her liking.
Although she is stepping up a level in opposition, to combat that, she receives an allowance for being the only 3yo in the field. With her prior runs built up in nurseries, she won’t be lacking for experience, and I think she can put her allowance to good use and finish the race well, to go close here. – 2
2.35 Doncaster Dakota Gold 9/4. 2 pts win. I was a huge fan of Dakota gold last season, a strike rate of 5 from 7 last year can only be admired when you take in to consideration the 3 big handicap fields he destroyed in a row. He moved up to listed level and duly obliged from danzeno, with the classy perfection back in 4th. he was narrowly beaten giving away weight to maid in India, who has come out recently to Frank the form by finishing close up to the classy liberty beach.
On Dakota golds final start of the season at listed level, he made all over 5f and ran on gamely to be unchallenged at the line. He picks things back up on Sunday at Doncaster over what I deem to be his best trip of 5f, I’d expect him to make all here, pick up where he left off and be very hard to catch. – 2
Lavenders blue duke of Cambridge coral 6/1 2pts EW – 4
Russian emperor Hampton court Hills 4 pts EW 7/2 wed. NAP +17.5
18th 1.50 ascot. Regal Reality 13/2 0.5pt EW various. Regal reality ran some very good races last year in much tougher company than this. Hopefully he will appreciate the drop in grade here, he has plenty of ability however he can really get himself worked up before a race, the current race day conditions can only be a benefit to his temperament. All being well he should be there at the finish.. +0.31
08.58 Regal Reality. 0.75 EW 9/1. Go back in at 9/1. +.0.94
19th June Al dabaran queens vase. 5/1 BFSB. 2.5pts EW. I like Al dabaran here, he is a quality horse and although he has ran more times than most of the opposition, he is unexposed at this trip with improvement to come from a mark which is already high enough to go very close. His form in France when finishing just infront of the summit, (who beat Victor ludorum 1st time up then finished 2nd in the French 2000 guineas) is of a very good standard in relation to this race, in every start he has stuck at the task all the way to the line, and I’m subsequently looking forward to seeing what he can do back over here and up in trip. He has form on soft and I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t there at the finish. +0.63
One Master. Diamond jubilee 7/1. 2.5 pts EW. Bet365
She should like the underfoot conditions here, she came a very good 2nd over the same course and distance on champions day. This race doesn’t look as deep to my eye. I think she has very chance. I’d be disappointed if she’s out fo the frame. – 5
5.15 leopardstown one Voice coral 6/1 2pts EW. Very solid run recently, in a race of which looks as strong as this renewal. She should be able to back up that run and go well in a race which she’s fully entitled to be involved at the finish. To my eye she looks considerably overpriced. +14.4 pts
In the same race. I have been waiting on seeing if the going would ease a little. With 9mm of rain and the ground now Good, Good to Yielding in places, I think its worth taking a bit of cover on Joseph O’Brien’s A New Dawn. 1pt EW @ 9/1 Bet 365 I don’t think she liked the ground first time up on her reappearance and the trip was a shade short, I’m willing to write that run off completely, and give her a chance at 9/1. she has the run under her belt, I can see improvement for the step up in trip, and the ground is no longer on the fast side. I see no reason why everything isn’t in line for her to run a much better race, she’s a danger to our selection which has shortened dramatically over night and could well run in to the places along side her. – 2pts
22nd June Limerick 5.40 Luis van zandt 1pt EW 8/1 hills. Luis van zandt has had a Change of Trainer from Tony Martin to Gavin Cromwell, and runs here off a mark of 91 with a 5 pound claimer on board. He went off at 9/4 favourite on his last start over 2m4 on soft ground in a similar handicap hurdle where the ground softened dramatically through the day and only weakened his chances. He was a non runner the previous 2 times pulled due to simular ground. He has previously ran considerably better on decent ground of which he finally gets here. The drop back to 2 miles will help, and I can see him doing a lot better today. +0.6
22nd june 6.10 Limerick. Mystery stowaway 10/1 0.5pts EW bet 365. Mystery stowaway has been tried highly and running in much better contests than this over 2 miles where everything seemed to be happening to quickly around her, the step up to 2m6 will be to her benefit. Over the longer trip, in lesser company she should find things a little easier here. The short priced favourite looks a decent horse in context to this race, without looking unbeatable, and everybody knows what can happen over obstacles. +0.5
23rd June 2.15 Beverley Perfect rose 1pt EW 6/1 hills. Perfect rose gets an opening mark of 77 on her handicap debut, I believe that to be lenient, she has had quite the break of over a year, however that is factored into her current price. Last time out she was seen coming 2nd to Kevin Ryan’s Rhea who was subsequently only beaten half a length next time out in a listed race. The 3rd readily won a maiden next time out, The 4th was considered good enough to run in the Chesham, with the 6th subsequently runner up in the Lingfield oaks trial. If perfect rose is ready enough first time out this season, she may be good enough to take this. At the prices I think it’s worth the risk. – 2
23rd June 6.40 roscommon Quamino 15/2 1pt EW his hurdle mark is 25 pounds lower than his chase mark. He has been kept in good company and acquitted himself OK over fences. This is a drop in class of which he should appreciate, if he shows his old spark here, he’s thrown in. +9.38
25th June 3.15 haydock. Under the stars 11/2 1pt EW (b365) more exposed than some of the others however she sets the standard of the one to beat on paper. They have to come up to her level and it’s not guaranteed that they will. Boomer rates a danger, however she disappointed 1st time up and is best watched. +6.19
26th June 6.45 curragh Gee Rex 13/2 (lads) 5 places 0.5pt EW. He is one I have been watching and he Ran a nice race last time out upped to 7f. He has gone up 3 pounds for that effort, however he is stepping up another furlong to the mile which is where I see him being at his best. He’s capable of showing up well here. There’s one to note of Aiden’s in the race who could be thrown in on her handicap debut having ran in much stronger races (love bracelet) she is one to watch for me, but if anyone already fancied her, I wouldn’t put you off. It shouldn’t be long before she wins one of these. However she may benefit from today’s experience. So I’ve settled on Gee Rex to use his experience today. +4.06
8.34PM update after much consideration and the 5 places available I think it’s worth going in double handed and adding love lace should you have the account available. She was as big as 9/1 when I first considered her. But 7s imo is still fine, now I have looked in more detail. Sky bet. Love bracelet 7/1 0.5pts EW 5 places. – 1
27th June. 5.25 curragh Elusive King 0.5pt EW @ 8/1 (coral). Elusive King caught the eye when running in a decent handicap at Naas last year finishing 4th behind in from the cold. He came out this year in what looked like a very strong handicap to me with good quality unexposed horses finishing infront of him that imo will win plenty of races between them. Elusive King beaten 3 1/4 lengths has kept his mark of 85 which I believe to be workable. He’s dropping back to 6f here where there looks to be plenty of pace on, he will be doing all his best work late and hopefully can arrive on the premises at the tail end of the race.+0.5
11.25 La Test De Buch
Spirit Of The Bay 0.5pts EW
13/2 EW (b365). Spirit of the bay has previously ran in better races than this, she finished a length behind Femme D’action and 5L behind the winner Thrilling in a listed Hurdle at Auteuil in September, she was out quickly again running well enough finishing 6L behind the useful president line. However she then bombed over fences which is likely why she is priced the way she is here, that was her 3rd run in a short space of time, I would personally be willing to forgive that and hopefully she can go well here with the benefit of a break.
July 1st Leopardstown 1.55. Know it all 9/2 1pt EW various. She’s a solid horse who I have been watching for a good while. She was Last seen over 7f, I believe there is more to come now stepped up to a Mile. With the run under her belt, I’d be hoping she goes close here and is involved at the business end. Ridenza was a NR in the Irish 1000 guineas when priced at 16/1, is very interesting and worth watching for similar contests in the near future, if any one wanted to take a chance on her I wouldn’t put you off. However know it all is the one for me here. +5.4
2nd July Sligo 6.10 Canford light 12/1 0.5 pt EW PP (4 places) I’m willing to take a small punt on Canford light here. He makes his handicap debut of a mark of 59. He had previously ran in maidens over 7f where he didn’t show too much however looked like he’d benefit from a step up in trip. He was then rightly stepped up in trip to 10f however it was in way to deep waters in a pretty decent maiden over 10f when priced at 250/1. He ran as you’d expect. Imo They may have been fishing for a lowly handicap mark. He goes up even further to 12f here and in to handicap company where the waters aren’t so deep, he will be able to show his level of ability here and if he’s good enough he may well get involved. It will be interesting to see if any money at all comes for him in the market that may indicate to his chances. If its not today, he’s one to keep an eye on for future engagements. – 1
Epsom 2.25 Safe voyage 6/4 bet365 3 pts win quite simply I think he’s better than these. The form of his 2nd last time out fully entitles him to win. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t. +4.5
4th July Naas 4.40 Fame and aclaim 7/1. 0.5pts EW (bet365). His form when running in a maiden behind ten year ticket where he went off fav has worked out very well . 6f was too short for him next time out. Up to a Mile on his handicap debut it was a much improved effort and he shaped well when 3rd behind so suave running off a mark of 82. He retains that Mark today and with a run under his belt over his correct trip of a mile, I’d like to think he can get involved at the business end of the race. +0.2
5th July Chantily 2.10 (4places) Ocean atlantique 13/2 0.5 pts EW. Pao alto 6/1 0.5pts EW. Its a big field and there are lots of unexposed horses, however I think the pick of them are pao alto and ocean atlantique. Imo the pair of them are very good. Pao alto has more tactical pace and touch button acceleration. ocean atlantique is a thorough stayer with a touch of class. They’re Going to need a bit of luck in running here however I’m hopeful that atleast one of the 2, may well turn over the short priced fav Victor ludorum, who tbh I think has been the best of a fairly average bunch over a mile and may well run into 1 or 2 here. Ecrivain may improve for the step up in trip, his run last time was too bad to be true. – 2
2.30 roscommon Bolivar 0.5pt EW @ 12/1 I highly rate napa Valley who he ran into on debut. There was a bit of money for Bolivar that day backed down from 10/1 to 4/1 at the off. He ran ok but definitely shaped as if today’s step up in trip to 12f would be right up his street. There could be a few useful horses in here, and he may run into one. however Bolivar is not without a chance himself. +7.5
Pontefract 12.45 Aiya 0.5 pt EW 8/1 Skybet (4 places) Aiya has been a bitter disappointment since being purchased for £250,00 at the breeze up sales. From a peak of 84 he’s now dropped down to his last winning mark of 73 which was also at the same track. I’d be hopeful that he can do better today from his revised mark and back up to 12f. – 1
7th july 6.00 kilarney Peregrine run 1pt win 11/4 bet 365. Peregrine run comes here having had a prep on the flat, he may well have a fitness advantage as well as being a very consistent mid 150s horse. Robin des foret may well travel into the race looking like the winner, however he doesn’t find a great deal off the bridle. if peregrine run is within 2 lengths coming to the last, I’d fancy my chances. +2.75
8th July 4.40 Newbury Nelson gay 5/1 bet 365 1pt EW Nelson gay ran on debut going off fav in a hot maiden behind the lir jet. He shaped as if a step up to 6f would suit. (the 4th behind him has subsequently won) He went on to ascot and ran in the norfolk over 5f finishing once again behind the lir jet back in 10th place a neck behind the classy eye of heaven. I think it was a very strong race and the pace set was a very strong on. He’s back down to class 5 Novice company here and also up to 6f with Ryan moore on board. I think everything’s right for him to run to the best of his ability. I’d like to think that he’s good enough to be bang there at the business end of the race. +0
9th July Newmarket 4.10 Embihaar. 1 pt win 5/2 various she is a classy horse, ideally she will go off in front, she may not be caught however if something comes to her, she’s very game in a battle. Hopefully she is ready to go first time up and will take all the beating. – 1
1.50 new market
Al Suhail. 1pt EW 5/1. (hills) I like Al Suhail a lot. This time, I’d be willing to write off a very poor run in the guineas, Now that he’s dropped down to listed class there will be no excuses. There are a couple of unexposed types at the forefront of the market, however he still has the potential to put a disappointing run aside and progress himself. If he brings his A game here, he should be bang there at the finish. +6
11th July Ascot 2.05 Melnikova 9/2 1pt EW (4 places) the form of her maiden has worked out very well. I’d be willing to write off her next run. She makes her handicap debut in a class 3 off a mark of 83. She is potentially in here very lightly with the likes of stylistique who she beat on debut currently on a mark of 106 and Run wild who was back in 4th who is currently rated 109. I’d be hopefully that Melnikova can be involved at the business end here. – 2
3.35 Newmarket Threat 0.5pts EW @10/1 bet 365 (4 places) the drop back to 6f will help. I think the further they go, the further golden horde will beat him. However at 6f, I don’t think there’s a great deal between them. So therefore Threat offers a bit of EW value imo at current odds of 10/1 with 4 places.-1
4.55 Auteuil. Pacha SENAM. 0.5pt EW 5/1 (bet365). A bit of a risky one, so if anyone wants to sit it out, I wouldn’t knock it. PACHA SENAM hasn’t managed to complete in his last 2 starts. However he showed me absolutely plenty 2 starts ago before he tipped up, to make me think that he would be very capable of being involved in the finish of a race like this, providing of course that he can have a clear round. +0
9.07am go back in on pacha senam 0.5pt EW 5/1 Bet365 with resplendor out, who I personally saw as one of the main dangers. With Bet 365 Keeping pacha senam at 5/1 without him in the field. It would be rude not to go back in. +0
Bloodstone 7/1 (bet 365)
0.5pt EW bloodstone ran well enough against 2 quality horses in ptp’s finishing 2nd behind ferny Hollow and then it sure is, showing that jumping isn’t an issue. He bombed on a bumper behind energumene after a long break. Then subsequently ran ok in a good Novice hurdle over 2m4 at roscommon. He steps up to 2m6 here which he has shown he gets in his latter ptp, this looks to me like a lower quality race, the short price fav is not unbeatable, and I’d like to think he can go well enough here. – 1
6 45 leopardstown Gin blossom 9/4 bet365 2pts win. Koola boola and gin blossom imo have the standout form going into the race. The step back up in trip will help gin blossom, who was flying at the finish last time. Bestrella who was a neck behind koola boola last time had already been beaten 5L behind gin blossom over the longer trip. So the fast finish of gin blossom last time wasn’t just her mowing down tired horses, she had the form to do it. She had to go the long way round being switched where nothing was in her favour. The 3 pounds she receives today negotiates the slightly worse terms here, but the longer trip should see improvement from last time and therefore I’d be very hopeful that the form can be reversed. she is not slow, however cheek pieces are fitted for the 1st time here to sharpen her up, therefore she shouldn’t be left as much to do, imo she has every chance of winning here. +4.5
4.25 haydock Fahad 0.5pt EW 8/1 Bet365 4 places 1/4. he drops slightly back down in trip here which will suit and most importantly back down to class 5 level. He has been dropped a pound for last times debut in handicap company. Off a mark of 76 in a weaker race over a more suitable trip, I think 8/1 under estimates his chances. I’d like to think that he can be competitive here and therefore be involved at the business end of the race. 9.41 PM. After re watching watching all the video analysis of the horses in the race, I have decided that…. – 1
Mafia power 6/1 bet 365 0.5 pts EW 1/4 is also a bet in the same race. I’m very happy to go in with the pair here. They have related form having been closely matched in the same race, Mafia power ran in a far stronger race than this on his next start and ran with great credit, he gets in here off a 2 pounds lower mark than fahad, to me they are BOTH standout picks in the race, we are getting the 4 places rather than the 5, however we are getting higher odds on the win and better place terms with a 1/4. I expect both to be involved at the business end of the race. +3.75
2.15 Newbury Mighty gurkha 0.5 pts EW 15/2 888 sport. 7/1 with 365 and Skybet. Mighty gurkha bolted up on debut then ran a solid race in the windsor castle behind some very nice types, He steps back up in trip to 6f here which should suit, Down to a weaker listed contest i’d like to think that he should be involved at the business end of the race. +0.25
3.05 York. Dark lady 16/1. Shades of blue 14/1. Both 0.5 pts EW 5 places sky bet. I like them both. Its a very tough and competitive big field race, however the prices are right. The trips fine for dark lady, shades of blue in particular, has been crying out for a step up back to 6f. Its a drop in class for both. They are both from are horses to follow, who have just happened to find the same opportunity. I’d be hopeful they can be involved at the business end of the race here. -0.10
5.15 curragh Magnanimous 5/1 5 places (EW extra, bet 365) 1pt EW I think he is considerably overpriced in this market with the 5 places, effectively imo giving you a free shot at the win. He has all the right future entries, his form last time has been franked by the blue panther being narrowly beaten by the rail way stakes winner, to glory ran well in the same very strong race, and georgio vasari won his maiden well on his next start. I think the fav of today’s race is pretty useful also and has the right entries, however magnanimous has his own legitimate chance of which his price under estimates, imo he should be involved in the business end of the race. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s out the 5. And not suprised if he managed to win. +0
8.15 ballinrobe Shumaker 0.5pts EW 6/1 Bet365 Shumaker wasn’t upto much last time he ran on the flat, however he has been very progressive over hurdles lately going up 32 pounds in a matter of months. He gets in here off his lowly flat rating of 45 with a 5 pound claimer on board. If he manages to show the same attitude to which he has over obstacles of late, he could well be thrown in, and imo is worth taking a chance on. +3.75
Myrcella 0.5pts EW @ 7/1
(Bet 365) 4 places 1/4 she’s consistent but seems to bump into a couple. I expect her to attempt to make all here, cheek pieces are applied and i’d be hopeful that it may be the key to her sticking to her job and finally getting her head infront. She’s on a winnable mark, there shouldn’t be any hard luck stories out the front, so if she’s good enough, she should be involved at the finish. +0.38
1.30 leopardstown Fernando vichi 4/1 2pts EW Bet 365 he went down by just a nose on debut to Jessica Harrington Los andes, the winner is seemingly highly regarded having an entry in the the group 1 national stakes. Fernando vichi should come on from his debut run however imo even a repeat of that effort may well be good enough here. His future entry in the futurity stakes group 2 shows that despite his long odds on debut, it wasn’t a big surprise. The current fav has all the entries but was 2 places behind our selection last time. The way he stayed on last time, I would be hopeful that Fernando vichi can confirm the form here and take victory. I would be disappointed appointed if he is out of the places. +7.5
Tramore 6.15 Memories remain 5/1 bet 365 1pt pts EW. Memories remain has yet to win a race, however has some very solid form, she finished 3rd last time, headed before the last over 2m6 beaten just over 20L to soldiers Hill in imo what was a considerably stronger race. The drop back to 2 miles will strongly suit here, and I’d be disappointed if she can’t be involved at the business end of the race. – 2
7.15 tramore. Knock on steel
6/1 Bet365. 0.5 pts EW knock on steel won his maiden chase last time and revert back to hurdles here off a mark of 104. Convara who he beat last time was going well last time when he tipped up at the last in a decent little race won by David’s charm. I’d like to think that knock on steel can be involved at the business end of the race here. – 1
3.05 Gowran Never forgotten 0.5pts EW @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) so wonderful is a very obvious one here, however even at this level it is somewhat possible that she won’t get the strong pace what she needs. She can run a huge race when they go off to fast in far better company, however run a stinker when the race isn’t ran to suit. Never forgotten has ran with great credit in 2 maidens, firstly behind the highly tried roca roma on debut then 2nd behind the dermot weld trained newcomer Etneya in a decent little race with a few nice types behind her. Never forgotten has a future entry in a group 3 race over 12f at Cork so I’d be willing to take a chance that there could well be more to come from her here and be hopeful that she may even give so wonderful something to think about. +4.2
1.00 York Oti ma boati 5/1 sky bet 0.5pts EW big drop in class here into a class 4 handicap, which I’d like to think that she’d strongly appreciate and can be involved in the finish here. +3
4.40 curragh Nulifier 10/1 Bet365 0.5 pts EW we backed elusive King EW in the race he ran in last time, before the race I thought that nulifier was the one to beat. I’d expect him to come on considerably for the run, and would be hopeful that he can see the race out better and be involved at the business end of the race. – 1
4.10 galway Wembley 11/8 (Boyle sports) 2 pts win. wembley was very well backed and ran a nice race when out battled by the very smart mac swiney. I really rate the winner and think the race itself will work out very well. The 1st 4 home in that race had all the entries, and I would be disappointed if Wembley can’t win this and go on to bigger and better things in the near future. Imo He may up to placing at the least in group company before the seasons out, So I’d be very hopeful that he can shed his maiden tag here and take all the beating. -2
2.15 goodwood Encipher 8/1 sky bet 0.5 pts EW 4 places. I like Al madhar a lot, who beat encipher a neck 2 starts ago. They were closely matched again last time in a very strong race. Not a single horse in here would have been anywhere near the places in that race imo, so I wouldn’t knock the finishing position. However, frustratingly the handicapper has gone and put him up 6 pounds for effectively being tailed off. If he hadn’t been put up 6, I’d be very keen. As it stands he’s drifted to a price where I’m willing to take a chance on him taking to account the weight attached. dropped into handicap company I think he’s the best horse in the race, it’s just whether or not he can win off a pretty high mark of 98. Hopefully he can progress further and be involved at the business end of the race here. +0.3
31st July Sir busker 2.45 goodwood 7/1 4 places (betfred/boyles) 1pt EW he was very unlucky last time losing all of his momentum over 7f when coming with a winning run. He’s gone up 5 pounds how ever he’s up to the mile and I personally think he has a very solid chance of winning in a competitive race. -2
6.15 galway My sister Sarah 12/1 EW 5 places William Hill 2pts EW as you can tell by the stake. I’m very keen on my sister Sarah here in a handicap hurdle over 2m6. I personally think that if she wasn’t Brought down in the Martin pipe by column of fire, that she would have placed at the bare minimum, as I know just how much she finds off the bridle. She’s had a pipe opener on the flat over a trip too short but ran with great credit. I have been waiting for this opportunity to back her over 2m6-3m in a handicap hurdle for a long while, and I’m all over her here. If I’m wrong then so be it, but I’ll personally be disappointed if she Dosen’t ATLEAST hit the frame. +2.8
Total Stakes 192pts +129.08pts. +72.44% ROI as of 28th september.
+£2581.60 to a £20 stake
Leopardstown 4.30 Too soon to panic 6/1 bet365 0.5 PTS EW I like federica Sophia of dermot weld who chased home too soon to panic before landing her maiden. Too soon to panic managed to beat her before going on to run in a strong handicap, the form of that race last time out with Elizabethofaragon and wilderness is very solid with both the above coming in to that race with resounding wins. I see no reason why bella Brazil will turn around that form here. In that race The likes of katiba was back in 6th there, so Imo the race has a strong look to it and should work out well at this level. Therefore I’m willing to take a chance on too soon to panic being good enough to be involved at the business end of the race here and confirm her superiority over bella Brazil. +0.1
Shades of blue
2pts win @5/2 Paddy power
Shades of blue imo is the best of these. She has been tried highly in the past, and drops down to the easiest race she’s ran in since last year, where she came 2nd in the very same race.
To my eye, This years renewal looks weaker than last years, The ground is no issue , she should be fully fit, and this is most definitely her trip.
They’ve opted for the first time headgear here, There are no excuses, quite simply I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t win. -2
1pt EW 5/1 William Hill 4 places HMS president has been running very solid races in considerably better handicaps than this. Hes in here at class 4 level, his form reads well, and he should be very competitive here. I’ll be disappointed if hes out the 4, with him having a very credible win chance. Mafia power looks to be a clear danger, he was hampered last time after going up 10 pounds to a mark of 85 for winning a class 5 nicely. However, HMS president is the one for me here. +0
4.15 dundalk Baby Zeus @11/2 1pt EW (4 places 1/4) bet365. His form is very solid, his run last time when finishing 3rd behind the smart red Kelly, has been massively cranked by sunchart and emperor of the sun. Baby Zeus should be very competitive here off a mark of 91. Broke slowly, given no chance. -2
Caroline dale 1.5pts EW at 7/2 betvictor
Sardinia sunset 1 pt EW @13/2 (hills) they both have very solid form, although sardinia sunset was well held last time out, it was in a strong race which has little comparison to this. With her sights lowered here, i expect her to uphold the form with country carnival which should see her into the places, caroline dale has ran a stormer every race and has finished just in front of sardinia sunset at a higher level, this is the weakest contest she’s ran in imo. There are plenty of unexposed winners in the race, however our 2 selections set the standard that they have to rise to, imo I expect both to go well here, we could easily have a win and a place. -2.19
1.00 tipperary Voice of hope 0.5 pts ew 8/1 bet365 voice of hope was rated 74 on the flat at his peak, and couldn’t get anywhere bear the places in handicaps off Mark’s in the high 60s. He made his hurdles debut finishing 6th. 11L behind little brother at balinrobe. He made a little bit of a mess of the last and faded to 6th on the run in. This is a really poor race, if he benefits for the experiance and has a clear round, hes shown as least as much on that start as the rest of them have before, while he’s open to further improvement and any, could well see him go close -1 Fell
2.45 York Sir busker 13/2 1pt EW Paddy power 5 places for reasoning please see the July thread. Nothings changed since then. +0.63
York 3.15 one voice 13/2 1pt win insurebet 2 places (money back if 2nd) william hill. I’d be in the big minority here. But I dont think love is the superstar that people are making out. I strongly question what she has beaten to date. Therefore i’m willing to take her on with one voice, with the backup of money back if she is 2nd. She’s the best horse love has faced this season imo, the step up in trip will suit, and I wouldnt be surprised at all if she gives love something to think about here. -1
Roca Roma 4/1
1pt EW 4/1 bet365. She showed alot of talent on debut and is obviously highly regarded from both the entries in which she’s taken up, and the supplementary fee paid to put her into the irish 1000 guineas. She ran poorly last time, but managed to drop 2 pounds down to a mark of 90. this is a big drop in grade, of which she should strongly appreciate . It would be disappointing if she can’t show up well here. +5
York 3.45 friday Dingle 0.5pts EW 10/1 William hill. Dingle showed promise on his debut. Then was put set to line up in a race which richard hannon uses at goodwood for nice types. He was the better fancied of the 2 hannon had declared for the race, with the other who was left in to run, duly running a stormer. The reason he was a nr there was due to the ground being on the firm side, there are no such issues here. I’d be hoping he’d be able to leave his debut form behind and go well here. +0.75
2.50 naas Giorgio Vasari 18/1 0.5 pts EW (4 places) William hill he was on a steep upward curve before running in what imo was the strongest 2yo race of the season. There was no shame in the result there, such as the competitive nature of the race. Although this is deeper than the races which he has won previously, I’d still like to think that he can continue on an upward curve here and be involved. He should be prominent and be bang there with 2f to go, hopefully he can see out his race and not be ran out of the 4 here. It wouldnt be a complete shock to me, if he manage to keep his head infront. -1
3.05 sandown. billesden brook. 1pt EW at 5/1 betvictor. She should be very competitive here, she should be staying on late, and I’d be hopeful that she can get up in the shadow of the post. +0
2.20 naas Baby zeus 1pt EW 5/1 (5 places) Bet victor. Please see last time.
Hopefully this time baby zeus will break better from the stalls and just as importantly he can be put into a better position during the early stages of the race, so that he will have a win chance. -2
5.27 dieppe. Horse maha 1.5pts EW 4/1 bet365. He was going very well on debut when he outjumped the horse infront, and subsequently unseated via going into the back of him. I’d be confident that he would have gone very close there. Last time out he was held right up and made up a huge ammount of ground once the leaders had already flown for home, imo with a more prominent ride, he should be going very close here. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s out the 3, and wont be surprised at all if he puts his prior experience to good use and can get of the mark in the juvenile hurdling ranks. +7.5
15/2 EW (4 places)
1pt EW I like golden horde alot, he’ll go out and attempt to make all, he didn’t appreciate the step up in distance last time, and imo he has a bit about him, where when something comes to him, to date hes been pretty generous with what he finds off the bridle. I’d be hopeful that in a very competitive race, that he can find for pressure and may be able to steal this and just stay infront at the line. +0.88
la teste de buch
1pt EW @4/1
Paddy power. He has ran very consistently at a good level, his last 2 runs were imo in stronger races than today. Hes closely matched with the fav ziegfred on a line through natural path. I personally dont thing Ziefried progressed his form to win last time, I think it was an average race compared to the one which Charlesquint ran in. Arguably charlesquint did more there in finishing 3rd. I think the prior form of the pair is the best in the race, and subsequently I’ll be disappointed if charlesquint finishes out the 3, I wont be surprised at all if he managed to get his head infront here. -0.2
4.00 longchamp Grocer jack W/O hurricane dream and dawn intello. 9/2 1 pt win. Bet 365. I have the 2 that we’re betting without as the best of the french, hurricane dream shades it and is the one to beat imo. Grocer jack the german raider boasts some smart form (receiving weight) with the likes of barney Roy and nagano gold. Having previously ran a stormer finishing 4th in the german derby (with drugs in his system). That form may leave him infront of the chasing pack. Maybe even infront of the 2 were betting without. So at 9/2 I think it’s worth taking a small chance on him being good enough without what I perceive to be the best 2 of the french. If my interpretation of the form book is correct, Imo you’re basically getting 9/2 on grocer jack in a match bet to beat fantastic spirit. -1
6/1 william hill althiqa has been a model of consistency, this is her grade and imo herself and cloak of spirits have the pick of the form, at 6/1 i believe that althiqa is the best value in the race, I’d be disappointed if she is out of the 4, and not surprised at all, if she manages to get her head Infront here. +0.2
5.30 cork. Ace aussie 13/2 bet365 1pt EW I have respect for colotlir sergeant, it wont be long before he will be winning his maiden, however he hasn’t managed to win yet yet he’s priced accordingly. The form of ace aussie debut has worked out very well indeed, I like Wembley and mac Swinney alot with the pair finishing just behind our selection here, Ace aussie has the best form on offer priced up at 13/2. Any improvement at all, should see him go very close. +6.09
Longchamp 4.55. Gannat. 1pt EW bet365 4/1
She has ran well giving away weight, before winning nicely last time against a few of these which face her again today, this is more competative, however imo the terms of today’s very competitive race makes her well treated and gives her every chance of getting her head infront here.
Both Gannat and her stablemate Genola I’m lead to believe are open for private sale, and regardless of that, they are being targeted towards the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival for current trainer Alain couetil. He has rolled the dice today however regardless of todays result, The pair of them are worth noting as they come out of bumper company into mares novice hurdle races in the near future. Either or both may even end up in a top yard on these shores shortly. +4.8
Frenetic 1pt EW 7/1 (4 places)
Skybet. I really like frenetic, on a line through miss amulet, I dont see why she is 7/1 here. I see frenetic as more of 7/2 chance myself. Her form is rock solid, i see no excuses why she cant perform at her best, and I’ll be disappointed if she is out of the 4 here . I think she’ll go close. -2
2.00 leopardstown. No speak Alexander 0.5pts EW 5/1. Unibet (if you have the option to use 1 or more uni-boosts to suit your stake, avail and take 11/2) Her forms solid, her win on her 2nd start was no fluke, she won it nicely and the 2nd has gone on the win a group 3. Her run in france last time was of a good standard. I see no excuses here, quite simply Imo She should be going close in this company. +0
2.55 longchamp. English king 11/2 (888 sport)1pt EW Mogul 7/1 1 pt EW (coral) imo on the balance of all their form they are the 2 best horses in the race, i see no reason why they cant perform to their best, and I believe they are both overpriced, imo serpentine was given a very soft lead at Epsom and was subsequently flattered, so we’re going in here double handed looking for a win AND a place. I’ll be disappointed if neither goes very close. +6.75
Hype 0.5 pts EW
6/1 bet365 hype was running a very solid race in what imo was the strongest maiden of the year, when he got badly hampered, lost all momentum then still finished handily in 8th place. imo he he would have finished a close enough 4th or 5th there. The form of the race is absolutely rock solid, even 8th looks good in this context. So I’d be very hopeful that he can go well here, confirm the promise that he showed on debut and be involved in the business end of the race. +0.1
8.30 dundalk Bolivar 3/1 bet 365 1pt win. We backed him in his maiden at 12/1 and he followed up again nicely next time. I dont think that he’s a certainty here, however I think he is value at 3/1. I have respect for order of Australia, he has ran in high quality races with great credit. But where I think the value with bolivar lies is that he could be allowed a freebie out front here, if allowed to dictate, in my eyes he would become automatic fav in running, he sees out his races well and is not going to fall into a hole. I believe he is still progressing, I’d be hopeful that he can take this and move on to bigger and better things, he was taken out of a group 3 last week due to the ground, that’s the sort of level i believe he is. If that’s correct, he should be going very close here. -1
2.00 Gowran La Jaconde 0.5pts EW 5/1 bet365 she may be 2nd string on jockey bookings, but certainly isn’t on race course form. Her maiden has worked out very well indeed. She stated in well in the closing stages of the race, I’d like to think she will have learned alot there and will strip sharper for the run. She should have a very credible chance of being involved at the business end of the race. –1
ETNAYA 5/1 1 PT EW Bet365
EPONA PLAYS 1 PT EW Bet365
4 Pts Total.
We’re going in double handed, looking for a win AND a place. +6
3.10 listowel Cerberus 1pt win 10/3 (hills / betvictor) firstly it’s worth noting that fujimoto flyer planted her feet and refused to race at auteuil, she diddnt look like she wanted to be there against solo either, so although she has talent, I’ll be ruling her out straight away for the foreseeable future. Cerberus however, jumps very well, contrary to the report below, I believe him to be a pretty uncomplicated ride, he has had a recent run and should be in decent shape. A mark of 138 without being lenient is fine as he’s the best horse in the race. I believe he possesses the experience and class to go very close. The stewards report below, is an interesting piece of reading. I personal think they have had this race in mind all along and expect him to go well here. -1
0.5pts EW 11/2 bet 365 figuero was extremely progressive before disappointing last time, I’d be of the opinion that he is worth another chance here. It’s a tough race, however if he puts in the performance he did on any of his 2 runs prior to last time, he should be strongly involved here. +3.44
4.30 listowel Ravenhill 0.5pts EW (5 places) 8/1 Hills/ Boyle’s . He is solid, he finished 2nd in this last year, he won the national hunt chase even though conditions may not have been to his liking, hes an uncomplicated ride who jumps well. And this is both his type of race and his level. Everything seems good But his mark of 153 is too high. However, Gordon has teamed up with Mr R James who won the trainer the Kim muir, to take a very valuable 7 pounds off his back. Imo he’s well worth his claim and he can make all the difference here. I expect ravenhill to go well and hopefully be involved at the business end of a very competitive race. As I’m typing this, he has drifted and the 10/1 with paddy power and the extra place is well worth taking. For recording purposes I’ll stick with the 8s that it was when I posted on Twitter. Fell. -1
4.15 Perth. La bague au roi 1pt win 9/4 888sport. ALL BUT FELL
3.25 perth. Stoners choice. 2pts EW 11/4 bet365. Has rock solid form in this context. The right handed track in this company looks exactly what’s required, he Should go extremely close here. And I’d be distraught if hes out of the places. Which would give a decent portion back should he manage to get beat in the finish. +6.88
3.20 listowel Meanformhair 0.5pts win 8/1 Tresorier 0.5 pts win 8/1 Bet365 tresorier is in fine form, he finished 2nd at a big price then backed that up by winning next time out. He hasnt yet managed to win over this trip, however If he continues his sharp incline, he should be involved here. -1
Meanfomhair has very solid form at this level, he slightly disappointed as fav last time, however now it is more than factored into his price. Imo he should go off the likely fav. Good chance.
3.45 compiegne. Fusion de baune has ran consistently to a good level in france. and although francois nicolle has a decent winning pair in here, I believe that gardes la monnaie is over rated and has ran against lesser opposition to what fusion de baune has. His other runner falbala des motttes remains the one to beat. However collateral form dosent leave us far behind if fusion de baune runs to the best of her ability. We may well be going in on her EW here. I’m currently awaiting other books to add to the market. I’m not advising just yet. But keep an eye out.
Cloak of spirits
1pt EW (5 places)
11/2 SkyBet/hills she has the best form in the race, and also comes out best at the weights. Although imo 7f may be a slightly better trip for her, conditions here over a mile are in her favour. She holds foorat on French form, althiqa has showed that to be the pick of the form available, and that gives cloak of spirits a very solid ew chance here. Imo she should be a bet to nothing for the win. With the 5 places as a fallback. It would be no surprise to see her get her head infront. +6.8
Betfred/ unibet….. imo lucky Vega is a solid betting prospect here on the back of his irish form, I believe he has ran in very strong races, compared to some of the opposition which imo have beaten average horses by a distance. Lucky vega, despite the name, was unlucky himself last time, he didn’t get a clear run. His prior form says to me, that he would have been involved there. At current prices of 4/1, I believe that underestimates his chances of winning. Imo he should be a general 9/4 5/2 chance. Therefore we are going in here with a solid chance of getting the win. I see him arriving late to be bang there at the business end of the race. I’ll be very disappointed if he is out of the 3. -0.2
4.05 Auteuil. James Du Berlais 7/4 bet365 1pt win. I like this lad alot, he is rock solid, progressive, and imo one of the most exciting young hurdlers in france. I cant wait to see him go novice chasing, but back to the task ahead tomorrow over hurdles. I’m surprised that he has opened up at 7/4. imo this is more than fair. I see him as an even money chance. He has improved with each run, jumps, travels and finishes out his races well, I expect him to go extremely close here. -1
Curragh 3.05 Vocito 0.5pts EW 9/1 bet365. Before I talk about vocito. dearf jazz (20/1) is worth noting as I saw what the trainer did with red Pantz, he has done exactly the same here. 3 runs in maidens. 2 pounds over weight each time, and now 1st time in a handicap with the 7 pound claimer on board. Kf anyone wanted a small win bet, i wouldnt knock it, alternatively it’s worth noting should it come off, as I’m liking what james m barrett is doing. Now on to VOCITO the magnanimous form is good, the 4th snowy owl has had some very nice entries, and has been backed accordingly. Vocito finished just infront of him last time, while managing to keep the mark of 74. I’m happy with this, in this context of race, I see it as a winnable mark, I would be hoping that vocito can be involved at the business end of the race. -1
Just to note.
There is likely another selection today in the 2.00 at curragh.
Angel palm 2.00 curragh 0.5pt EW 11/2 bet365 I have been patiently waiting on her drifting out to the current price of 11/2. I like her. She dissapointed on debut, imo as there wasn’t enough pace on, staying will be her forte and she sees out the trip very well at the distance. However that form has worked out well, so she should be marked up on that effort. On her next start she confirmed her promise, and duly won her maiden nicely. This is a big step up in class, however I am of the opinion that she is on the incline. There should be pace in the race, I see further improvement from angel palm and I expect her to be involved here at the business end of the race. I also think she will likely go up to the mile after this, which imo would see further improvement. -1
4.50 bath. Zulu zander 0.5pts EW 8/1 bet365 (4 places) bath being my local track, I know Zulu zander pretty well, one of the main things at bath, is you need to handle the quick ground conditions, this is no problem for zulu zander. He won a decent race there after shaping well in the broclesby beforehand. In total he has been to the track 4 times, and has ran well on each occasion. He has dropped right down the handicap to 67 and has william Buick in the saddle here. The drop In grade down to class 6, the lowest mark he has ran off, the conditions to suit at the track he performs his best. All lead me to believe that he is overpriced here and i make him a bet. +5
3.00 Wincanton Sashenka 11/10 2 pts win. (Hills)
Sashenka has some useful form, she has ran into a couple of decent horses early on and would have got closer to a smart sort but for being hampered.
Last time out she was cruising and set for victory when she fell at the last. She just over jumped it, it happens, and it was not a characteristic mistake.
I expect her to get over that quickly, and get off the board here.
4.35 Naas. Ahandfullofsummers 1pt EW 4/1 with bet 365
She comes in to this with a huge drop in grade, she sets the standard here that the unraced horses will have to be smart to get to her. Her last run was disappointing however that was at a much higher level, her prior form reads well, and she comes in here fresh.
Dubai World Cup
The 4-year-old colt hitting the board in 11 of his 14 starts. The colt was last seen finishing second to Knicks Go in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – a repeat of his finish behind that horse in the Grade 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile two starts before.
Mystic guide won last year’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes against a field that included Jesus’ Team, however mystic Guide will attempt to make all, and over this longer trip and at the prices, I will take a chance that Jesus’s Team may get to him.
my selection here is…
Jesus’ Team 0.25 pts EW 6/1 PP (4 places)
$750,000, Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby
Ambivalent. Spending most of his 2-year-old season in stakes races, including a pair of thirds, the Constitution colt broke his maiden last month by 1 ½ lengths in a turf race at Santa Anita. That victory was enough to convince his connections to head to Dubai where he’ll be looking for his first stakes victory in his fifth stakes attempt.
Racing at Laurel Park for all-but one of his four starts, Lugamo won two of his races by a combined 10 ¼ lengths with all those starts coming at two. The colt ended last year with a third in the James F. Lewis III Stakes and has steadily been working his way toward getting ready for Dubai ever since. The colt will be taking his first official step on the Kentucky Derby trail here
My selections in this race are…
Lugamo 33/1 0.25pts EW PP (4 places)
Ambivalent 16/1 0.5 pts EW PP (4 places)
$1.5-million, Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen
Wildman Jack looks to become the fifth United States-based winner in the last six editions of the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. U.S. horses also won most runnings of the race from 2001 to 2010. Wildman Jack is very familiar with Meydan after spending last winter there and winning the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint Sponsored By Arabian Adventures as a prep for World Cup night before it was cancelled. Based in Southern California, Wildman Jack performed well on that circuit the rest of the year before running seventh in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Racing in the Grade 3 Palos Verdes on dirt two months ago, Wildman Jack convinced his connections to go for Dubai Golden Shaheen on dirt instead of the turf race on the card by winning the Palo Verdes by 4 ¼ lengths.
Yaupon won his first four starts as a 3-year-old last year, and impressed with open-length victories in the Grade 2 Amsterdam and Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes in the summer and fall. The inexperienced colt was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint to end his year and hasn’t raced since then, although he has been working steadily at the Fair Grounds. Yaupon is headed to Dubai after registering a couple of bullets (fastest workout of the day breezing that distance at the track) over the last month and trainer Steve Asmussen knows how to get horses ready for Dubai.
My selections here are…
Wildman Jack 0.25 pts EW @8/1 with PP (4 places)
Yaupon 0.5 pts win 9/2 hills.
Avant Garde, has been shipped to Dubai after finishing second to Fearless in the Grade 2 WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes to kick off 2021. Avant Garde has only run in four stakes races in his career and has hit the board in all but one of them, though this will be the toughest test he’s faced yet.
Snapper Sinclair has been a mainstay on the stakes scene since winning the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes in 2017 as a 2-year-old. He even made a brief, two-race appearance on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2018. He has never won a graded stakes — though he’s come close multiple times — and looks to change up his luck here. He won his 2021 debut Feb. 4 at Oaklawn Park, where he beat a few horses who have also done well in stakes race, and was second in December’s Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap, so he’s coming into this race in good shape.
My selections here are….
Avant Garde 0.25 pts EW @16/1 bet365
Snapper Sinclair 0.25 pts EW 16/1 hills
$1-million, Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint
Cowan is taking a big step up in class here in facing a group of experienced older horses as a 3-year-old, however gets the allowance. Cowan has been all about the second-place finishes in his last five starts, including the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November. He’d spent his last three starts on the Kentucky Derby trail and finished second by three-quarters of a length behind Pink Kamehameha in the Saudi Derby last time. I wouldn’t put anyone off him however, he was a poor starter last time, and if he doesn’t break on terms here, his cance is gone.
A trio of second-place finishes brings Extravagant Kid into this year’s Al Quoz Sprint. A winner of 14 of his 49 career starts, Extravagant Kid isn’t a stranger to the runner-up position, he has finished in the position 16 times. The seconds include his two starts before last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, where he broke that streak by finishing fourth behind Glass Slippers, beaten by only a length.
My selection here is …
Extravagant kid 16/1 0.25 pts EW PP (4 places)
24th – Unfortunately NO BET, it is poor quality racing, and I have genuinely spent hours today watching race replays to try and get a bet out, but again there is nothing for me.
Anyone working ahead to MEYDAN please feel free to use the trainers quotes thread, there is some useful information gathered that you may want to use towards forming your own selections. I will be putting up at least 1 bet on here for Meydan Saturday. .
If there is nothing much of note outside of Meydan before or on Saturday, I may elect to put selections for the whole Card in here, rather than the race Card selections thread.
3.15 Auteuil Haut les Coeurs 13/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
The 4yo French Champion Hurdle is ran at Auteuil today and the lightly raced Haut les Coeurs steps up in grade here, he finished just behind Teahupoo and good ball when on the wrong side of the track on debut, then he bolted up on his next start, this is a big step up, however he has a whole lot of potential and should be in the shake up here.
Chelt members are already on at 16s and again at 10s so there is no need to back again, however with the strength of bet I have placed myself on him Antepost, I feel the need to put him up again here for daily members.
1.55 Ganapathi 2 pts EW 5/1 (sky 8 places)
Ganapathi is a horse that i have taken a decent cut at for this race at considerably bigger odds. I think he is very well in at the weights off a mark of 140. I like the experience he has gained, everything is a positive for me here with him, I think he has a cracking chance in a very competitive race. I am expecting him to come there swinging on the bridle 2 furlongs out, then its down to luck in running.
1.55 Champagne platinum. 8/1 (7 places sky) 0.75 pts EW
2.30 Min 4/1 1.5 pts EW (betfred, bet365, pp)
3.05 Vinndication 12/1 0.5pts EW 0(5 places pp)
4.15 Martello Sky 0.5pts EW 50/1. Paddy power.
She is a strong stayer, if there is as much pace in the race as I think there is, she should be staying on late. She may well run into the places, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that she could pick the leader up. She is a long shot, but I do not believe that the standard set here is unachievable.
I may well put something else up tomorrow morning, as prices seem to peak mid morning,
2.30 Grand Roi 13/2 1pt EW bet365 (6 places)
Cheltenham Day 1
1.20 Appreciate It 1pt win 5/4 hills
3.05 Epatante 1.5pts EW 4/1 (4places) Sky, 365, PP
Aspire tower 0.75pts EW 16/1 5 places hills
3.40 Black Tears 0.5 pts EW 14/1 betvictor (4 places)
4.15 Youmdor 0.5 pts EW @16/1 betfred ( 6 places)
Her Indoors 0.25 pts EW 25/1 PP. (6 places)
There will not be a daily bet for tomorrow or Monday’s racing, As there will be a considerable amount of bets around the Cheltenham festival each day, as soon as the day of the race markets open.
3.20 Navan Indiana Jones 5/1 0.5pts EW various. He is a nice horse, I would have even given him a shout in one of the big chelt handicaps had he gone that way. He should improve with racing, and will make a lovely chaser, however moses has flung a good opportunity for him over hurdles here. His run last time was very useful, this is a drop in grade, and I would be very hopeful that he will be closely involved.
3.55 Gowran. Fan de Blues 0.5pts EW 17/2 Sky (5 places) I have been watching him for a long time and I do believe that he has a decent handicap in him. This is a drop into calmer waters here, the trip and ground is fine, and I would be very hopeful that he gives a good account of himself. It wont be long before he gets his head in front in a similar contest, and today may be the day.
4.50 Catterick. No Limitations 0.5pts EW 13/2 PP/ Hills/ Sky …
I know the horse pretty well that narrowly beat him last time – Premer Magic – and he is a solid yardstick.
The 4th Gottagottagetaway was only narrowly beaten by the fav cousin Pascal here the time before,
So I believe the difference in the prices are too wide, and therefore I’m willing to take a small chance on No Limitations here. If he runs to the level he ran to last time, where he out ran his odds, he should be involved at the finish. Any improvement at all, and he is bang there.
2.05 Exeter Amarillo Sky. 0.5 pts EW @ 11/2 Hills.
We backed him last time in a slightly weaker race on heavy ground where his finishing position was disappointing. However, he travelled well throughout the race, then was tenderly handled in the closing stages once his win chance had gone.
Imo he can improve upon that performance. He should appreciate the drier ground conditions having won his ptp on yielding and finishing in front of no risk des flos on good. Amarillo Sky may well be involved in the finish here, should he get a less sympathetic ride.
The next 9 days are going to be reasonably quiet – there is very little of note running until Cheltenham, and there will be multiple bets daily there.
Of course, anything in the mean time I will put up as usual. Tomorrow there is nothing of interest.
2:20 Doncaster – Rayna’s World 13/2 0.5pts EW pp…
This is a fair drop in grade for Raynas World, and she runs here off level weights. Everything in this field would have been tailed off in the race she ran in last time, and the pick of her form reads well. She was disappointing on her last visit to this track, however again it was a better race than this. I’m very willing to give her a chance in this lesser company, and wouldn’t be surprised at all should she be too good for them.
4.00 Punchestown. Doctor Duffy 9/1. Lynwood Gold 8/1. Both 0.5 pts EW bet 365
I don’t like the former’s trainer, however he is well handicapped over hurdles, and may bag him a few quid here. Lynwood Gold we intended to back last time before the meeting was abandoned. Improvement is expected up in trip.
2.30 Naas Defi Bleu 5/1 1pt EW 3 places Betfred/Paddy He has come back off a long lay off and has ran credibly over 2 miles. The 2nd time he fell, however was going well enough in 2nd at the time. Last time out over 3 miles, he ran credibly behind a couple of decent horses, whether he made a noise or not, they have decided to go for the first time tongue strap, and run him in a nice pot. He may show a little improvement here and the intermediate trip is no hindrance.
I’m going to wait for the morning, where I may make use of the insure bet market.
2.25 Kempton – Margaret’s Legacy 12/1 0.5 pts EW Bet365. He faces some classy flat horses here, however has the edge in race course experience. He is an excellent jumper of a hurdle, and I believe will attempt to make all – should he be given too much rope, he will be very hard to reel back in, especially with inexperienced horses sure to have their jumping put under pressure.
2.27 Chepstow – Crypto 9/2 0.5 pts EW Bet365/William Hill
Crypto was backed last time like defeat was out of the question. He makes his debut over fences off a mark of 112, over 2m3f. He is lightly raced and open to further improvement. Should he have a clear round, he should be strongly involved in this company.
3.35 Punchestown Lynwood Gold 5/1 bet 365 1 pt win.
Lynwood Gold has some useful form as a novice, and has improved considerably on the flat. He ran into a nice mare of Willie’s last time over hurdles and there was no disgrace in that, and he comes in here off the back of a run in the Cesarewitch. This is his 1st run in a handicap off a mark of 130, I believe the step up in trip will help, as will the drop in to handicap company. He should have every chance here.
2.20 southwell only the bold 6/1 0.5 pts EW paddy power/hills/sky
He needs to find improvement to win this, but you can disect the market leaders as not being a long way ahead, sending love has a rating, that is just unrealistic for what he has achieved, the form behind Valleres looks pretty poor.
Sir sholakov is in the free horses to follow, and he will improve for the step up in trip that be gets here, its price related to be backing against him here.
Ballingers corner will be dangerous if allowed to dictate, the form of her last run is that of a mid to late 120s horse, she is open to further improvement, however the standard seen isn’t unbeatable. No hubs no hoobs I do believe will pop up at a big price in a maiden hurdle, however imo he may well need a bit more experience yet and is likely to improve from this.
Our selection only the bold was beaten by one of nicky’s who was on a going day 1st time up, the 3rd paddy’s motorbike has done pretty well since, with a rating in the low 130s, only the bold then looked to have ran into one again, when beaten by the mid 130s horse malinello, the 3rd moon king has gone well since, so I will take a small EW chance in the hope that only the bold can find a little improvement, as it’s only a little he needs to be heavily involved.
Newbury 3.35 soaring glory 13/2 0.75 pts EW william hill. I have already put him up at 12/1 in the Antepost thread, so no need to re back if your on Antepost, however I will stick with him here, I believe he has been laid out for this, his mark is fine, and he should give a give good account of himself in an extremely competitive race.
Look my way 8/1+ everglow 15/2
Both 0.5 pts win with bet365
Champagne platinum is very capable of winning off this mark here, however that may ruin his pertemps chances, so I can see him running very well and coming 2nd or 3rd. Of the remainder look my way had his form franked by mint condition, he has been raised 4 pounds for that effort, however has a 7 pound claimed on board today, he recently had a spin on the flat, and a chance will be taken.
Everglow will appreciate this step up in trip, after running ok in a much stronger race last time. He is not a world beater, however He is crying out for 3 miles, and is unexposed at the trip.
12.30 Leicester. Muckamore. 4/1 1pt EW Bet365
He ran better last time than the form figure suggests, he weakened in the closing stakes last time having been going well throughout.
He has subsequently undergone Palatal Cautery surgery, a tongue strap has been applied, and both a drop in trip and a drop in grade sees him in here with a fair chance, it may well do the trick here.
2.40 wetherby. Good Boy Bobby 9/1
0.5 pts EW. Hills
He reverts to hurdle here off a mark of 142 which is fine, I’m assuming they are saving his chase mark for a big pot, and this looks a good opportunity for him, Albert’s back has gone well recently however he has shot up in the weights, midnight shadow is a solid yard stick at the top of the weights, therefore of 142 I feel good Boy Bobby should be competitive, and even if this race is just to keep him ticking over, he is fit enough to do himself justice
2.20 warrick Amarillo sky 13/2 0.75 pts EW unibet.
he has ran in some strong races, makes his handicap debut here, of what I believe to be a very fair mark. Should be involved.
Thurles is a re arranged card, so salt wind who we was on, in the same race last time, has subsequently been found, there may be a drift on him tomorrow back out to the 4/1 which we had, I’ll have to wait and see.
Amarillo sky is another that’s been re a arranged and again we were on at bigger prices, with good place terms, the same applies to him.
They may go and win, However I wont be taking under the odds, so I’m very much waiting and seeing how the market develops tomorrow morning.
2.10 Exeter astigar 1pt EW 4/1
Betfred, pp, hills sky
Astigar got out stayed by a useful horse last time in patroclus, the 3rd is also a fair horse and is one to note up in trip, this is further backed up by the bumper form of astigar, with the horse who beat him by half a length winning his maiden hurdle nicely and prominent in the betting for the 1st race here, this race is the easier of the pair imo, and I side with astigar here to get off the mark.
To my frustration there is only Naas that looks like being on, i have 3 horses of interest at Naas. 1 in shorter than I wanted, the other 2 are WAY shorter than I wanted, i don’t want to put up something just for content so I will wait and check for any drift tomorrow morning. Barring that, I will wait for more suitable opportunities.
Farclas 8/1 0.5 pts EW PP
As per the DRF day 2 card.
4.25 leopardstown chemical energy
11/4 1.5pts EW. bet 365
He may well drift, however i really rate him, I am under no illusions, and I’m aware that willie has thrown everything he has at the race, but chemical energy has been kept back for this himself, and I expect him to go very well.
Save your pts for the weekend, it’s good racing.
Ffos lass 1.25 red lion lad 1pt win 11/4 bet365
Red lion lad looked a very dour stayer in his ptp and handled the heavy conditions best of all, he started over 2 miles on his hurdle debut and wasnt great, however in his ptp he did all his best work late in a war of attrition, so I believe that there is improvement in him up in trip, of which he gets today, I do think he is worth following as a long term prospect out in trip in very soft conditions, so hopefully it may be today, and a chance is taken.
aki bomaye won his ptp nicely at turtalla where the grey jumped well, was always in controll on soft ground, and finished his race well,
The son of Stowaway, and a half-brother to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Granit Jack was then sold at the tatts december Cheltenham sale for £55,000, he is an interest addition to the race. Champagne superover has an ambitious ballymore entry and seemed to turn a corner in a very weak race last time, however I dont think he is the strongest finisher and had previously finished just behind franco d’anou who brings a reasonable and consistent level of form into the race himself.
2.00 Warwick fantastic lady 11/2
0.75pts EW hills/pp…
She ran in a good race on debut jayBwhy and patroclus have gone well since and imo this form is as good as anything else on offer, my whirlwind obviously cost 400k so alot will be expected, however that race has worked out awful, and she likely diddnt achieve any more there than her stablemate has on her sole hurdle Start
3.15 naas pencilfuloflead 2/1
Betv/Boyle’s 1 pt win.
This run qualifies him for the NH chase, and obviously he is fully entitled to run in the RSA if they so wish, he will be trying here As handicaps are off the table, I rate him, and he will go very close.
2.40 Doncaster. ashdown lad. 6/1
1pt EW sky (5 places)
I believe he is just about the best horse in this race, which is a moderate bunch. I don’t believe that was his true running last time, this race is very suitable, and If he picks up where he left off, he should be bang there. If anyone wanted to wait and seeing there is a further drift with the place concession, that’s fair enough, but I am happy as is.
Doncaster 1.32 Road Senam 7/1 0.5 pts EW bet365. I know him well from france, he reverts back to hurdles here for the 2and time I’m succession for his new yard and connections, he should have no issue in the jumping department, and has a little class about him. Todays trip is fine and He should be at home in this company, despite the stables poor form, he may improve on what he showed last time? And go well.
I have just spent an extra 3 hours watching videos trying to force a bet, but their just isn’t one, the handicap with runwildfred/ coko beach in is interesting, however I just have no idea what will be trying and what won’t be.
Assuming Thurles is on, I may have something of interest in the 12.45, it all depends on the prices in the relevant markets (extra places/ match bet) once they are formed in the morning. I have now just woke up to find ELIMAY has been smashed up and halved in price, so subsequently this is now off the cards.
1.20 down royal Decimation evens 1pt win paddy power……
He has smart form and has ran into 3 nice horses, I see no reason why he can’t get off the mark here. Apologies for the short price, however I would like to get back into the routine asap, so i am looking for anything I feel will go very close.
There will be multiple bets tomorrow for Saturday.
3.40 Ludlow ravished 11/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
I have just had to act early as he was cut instantly already, with markets going up too early. Anyway….. Last time out in the Skinners Ladies Open, a qualifier for the series final at Stratford Ravished always looked in control in the hands of Gina Andrews and scored by an easy 12 lengths, with Changeofluck a never dangerous 20 lengths third.
“Yes, I was expecting that!” confirmed Ravished’s always-bullish trainer Joe O’Shea afterwards. “He’s a hell of a horse and I wish I’d had him when he was younger. We backed him at 200/1 for the Cheltenham Foxhunters after he’d won first time out last year but he was balloted out – Cheltenham and Aintree will be the plan again. Gina said he was always travelling and jumping well and Huw Edwards – who’s my stable jockey – is also looking forward to riding him.”
i think we all know hazel hill, however I have no idea if he is the same horse, as first time up, he didn’t look it.
One worth a watch in the Newbury 12.55 is Gallyhill .
Hoi polloi was beaten by a very average horse at time at ayr but is now a NR. Gallyhill won an Irish ptp nicely, he was held up, jumped well, travelling all over the field when put into the race 3 out, it was only a question of when the jockey wanted to decide to win, he was a bit careful at the last and idled on the run in, the winning margin, doesn’t show just how authoritative he was, however he clearly caught the eyes of the sale room before changing hands to Mike grech and nicky henderson. The owner has a very nice horse already in I am Maximus, and connections have decided to keep him in bumpers for the season, Gallyhill skips them , and goes straight hurdling in the race which shiskin broke his maiden tag last season, we are about to see what £450,000 gets you.
2.20 pau Gai Luron 9/2
bet365 0.5 pts EW
I think Gai Luron may well have been layed out to win this handicap for Francois Nicolle, he switched back from fences to come 2nd last time over hurdles, not asked for everything. The 3rd won by 20L next time at nantes, then was beaten in a
similar race at a recent pau where Francois Nicolle won the race with polisud, who he dropped back from chasing for the same connections as Gai luron here.
This is a very competitive handicap, you can run well and finish 5th or 6th, however our selection is unexposed over hurdles and i am hoping will be bang there.
One to watch.
1.20 pau Hyghliner great
I recieved a good word for him from someone connected, prior to his run last time and he disappointed in poor conditions, the race looked strong, so he may have a chance to redeem himself here, I do not expect it, however it is plausible that he just didn’t run his race. I am happy to watch, if anyone wants a small interest, its not advised or to be recorded either way, however i feel he is worth highlighting for interest.
If all members can please email us when you have time on
That would be much appreciated, this is how i would send out selections if for any reason our site went down, and may be considered for future notifications rather than twitter…
2.32 pau. la danza insure bet (3 places)
7/4 sky bet. 2 pts.
I believe she will attempt to make all here, she is a very good jumper, and finishes out her races well, horse maha fell last time so may be patiently ridden to get a clear sight at his fences and subsequently make his move when la danza has already flown, invite special stays the trip very well, and if he is bang there going to the last he may be able to get to her, however it’s all about timing, kick la danza for home well before the last and I believe she will open up enough to see it home.
There is Currently 2 that I am interested in, I will wait until the morning to see the rest open up their prices on the latter, and for any drift on the former, as it is just short of the price that I want.
1.50 leopardstown and the 2.32 at pau
2.25 Warwick ADRIMEL 6/1
0.75pts EW paddy power / betvictor
I wont have about what he has done, he has narrowly beaten poor horses, however I see improvement now stepped up to this trip, he sees out his races over 2 miles very well, and I think there is more ti come from adrimel, he won a decent ptp where make believer fell in behind, it would have been interesting to see how that played out as he looks pretty useful, we will see the rematch today over obstacles, where imo the pair are key players. Jay bee why was very impressive visually last time, he hosed up against what know is a useful horse in patroclus, it may be the case he is very smart, however there was no distance between patroclus and the 3rd, he was too keen, and I dont believe that he gave his true running, oscar elite joined coin tizzard with a big reputation after winning his ptp, he may be very useful, however theres is no substance to his form, behind the large winning distances, so I feel I have to take him on with adrimel, expecting improvement for the increase in distance.
There are no NH cards tomorrow worldwide. As i am now strictly focusing on National Hunt Racing until atleast the Dubai world cup meeting, that unfortunately means it will be a no bet day.
2.52 pau gingermix 0.5pts EW 16/1
There are plenty of horses in here with 1s next to their name, the form figures of gingermix do not look flashy, however
he has some good bumper form behind the very useful filly Gannat, I believe he has ran in the deepest company, so this level on hurdles debut, should not be beyond him. +1.1
2.50 naas on eagles wings 9/2
1pt EW bet365.
On eagles wings has some very smart bumper form, h he has been beaten by very useful types such as ferny hollow and chemical energy, if the translates that form over to hurdles, he should be useful and involved at the business end here .+5.4
1.55 fairyhouse. Fantasia roque 10/1
0.25 pts EW paddy power
She has some decent form in ptp’s, her win against clondaw caitlin reads nicely, CC won 4 races in a row, is rated in the mid 130s over hurdles and was placed against Galvin last time on her first chase start.
Fantasia roque’s previous start in a ptp also reads well, she was 6L behind tune the chello, who has won 2 races since.
Last time in a bumper, she was well beaten, with the step up in trip and obstacles in front of her, we may see her in a better light, for me the horses at the front of the market, are both inconsistent, and set a winnable standard.
she may never have encountered ground as bad as this, with conditions described as unraceable, so I think its sensible to keep stakes very small for today, and keep our powder dry for more suitable opportunities, however I’m hopeful that she can be involved here.
It may be a NO BET day tomorrow, it all revolves around what price six one in the 1.07 pau, is priced up in the morning.
13.15 cagnes sur mer. Berjou
Insurebet 3 places 15/8 4pts bet365.
This is money back if in the top 3. Win if he is 1st.
I was hoping to get lucky with the price here, however he has been found, but i still think the price is very fair, he won this race last year, he was travelling very well when unseating last time and imo about to beat the 2nd fav here rasango. +7.5
With Naas unfortunately off, I am looking at 2 potential horses who will run at cagnes tomorrow. I will wait for the rest of the books to price up in the morning, and will be dictated by the prices whether to make 1 or both a bet.
12.25 wincanton Ginger du val. 1pt EW
She was 2nd in a grade 3 bumper before winning nicely and pornichet, the winner of that grade 2 Gigastar went on to be 4th in a strong grade 1 to the extremely smart Gannat, which gives the form a reasonable look to it, it’s her first run over hurdles off a long break, however she could well be useful and closely involved here. On to victory brings smart form to this race, with a clear round, he would be the one to aim at. -2
Chepstow 1.25 Houx Gris 9/2 1.5pt EW unibet 9/2
houx Gris has plenty of experience in france, where he has ran to a solid consistent level, he should have e no issues in the jumping department and he has been given enough time to acclimatise to his new settings, nassalam has won very convincingly against very poor opposition so is hard to weigh up, I am inclined to take him on with something that I know has ran to a good level, against solid opposition, houx Gris, will give Nassalam a real test, and he will have to be the real deal, to be beating him convincingly. +0
11.30 pau. Hors Piste 11/1
0.5 pts EW bet365.
Hors Piste makes her debut here, however I have noted down that previously she was the stable no1 on both the jockey bookings and market position, when she was declared a non runner last time due to the ground. Her stable mate Haie Vert, duly went on and won that race nicely, so I would be optimistically hopeful that Hors piste backs that up here on debut. -1
1.40 lingfield. Nebuchadnezzar 15/2
0.5 pts EW bet 365
Nebuchadnezzar ran well last time over 1m4 in a class 5 handicap, after switching back from hurling, he gets 2 miles here, the step up in trip should suit, as should the experience of running around lingfield on the all weather last time. -1
12.40 sandown. Stormy ireland 3pts win. 10/11 bet365. No prizes for originality here, but some times the best value can be in the shorter prices, she ran 2 fine races over fences before running poorly in deep company over hurdles. The conditions of the race are massively in her favour here. I expect a win. -3
1.50 cagnes sur mer A johnny 9/2 1 pt EW bet365.
it’s pretty rare that I will follow up a previous selection next time out, as I treat each race on its individual merit, however I am convinced that A johnny is capable of winning a maiden, he travels well, he jumps well, he is just not finding a great deal in the closing stages, however he is a young horse with just 2 runs on the board over hurdles and has been tried in some fairly deep races. Looking through the field here, there are more convincing form figures to be seen, however the standard of races they were achieved in, I believe aren’t as strong as the ones that A Johnny has ran in. I will be dissapointed if he is not involved at the business end of the race here. +0
Punchestown 12.30 run wild fred 7/1 0.75 pts EW. Paddy power.
He ran a shocker a last time, he seemingly didn’t travel well throughout the race. Beforehand he was going pretty well stride to stride with opposites attract in a race won by latest exhibition.
I may be wrong, however I think that run wild fred may be being campaigned towards the Kim Muir, 1st time blinkers have been called upon here, and I expect him to show more.
I think the job is all but done on the front of handicapping him, so i do want to see something from him today.
I have kept back 4 points just incase one that I like drifts. I will notify tomorrow beforehand if that is to be the case.
3.15 newbury stargate 5/2
1 pt win bet365
Chelt Members will know that I rated his debut very highly, visually he is the most impressive novice I have seen over the intermediate trip.
1.30 Newbury Demachine 10/3
1.5 pts EW bet365
He is one I have been keeping an eye on, he has won the last twice in a good manner, hopefully he keeps progressing as I can see bigger targets ahead.
3.35 leopardstown. Unbreakable bond 10/1 0.5 pts EW bet365
Unbreakable bond was 2nd in a ptp where the winner went on to win a bumper at punchestown, unbreakable bond travelled well throughout and was only bettered in the closing stages, he was sold for £210,000 where as the winner grangeclaire native went for £125,000 which shows he wasn’t missed. On what I saw, The drop in trip here should strongly suit.
Ramillies and unbreakable bond look the pair to follow forward. It would be a price related decision between the pair. Take the 10/1 unbreakable bond BIG
12.05 leopardstown. Indigo breeze 4/1 bet365 1.5pts EW
Indigo breeze dotted up in his bumper after being purchased privately for Gordon elliot, he was previously unsold for 140,000 at the cheltenham sale. He was beaten narrowly by the useful keskonrisk on debut, and was reported beforehand to likely come on for the run.
“He is very very nice and is owned by Gearoid Costelloe and won a point to point-bumper in England and couldn’t get him sold off the back of it”
“We were lucky enough to get him at Gordon’s and he is a beautiful horse and is a half-brother to a very good horse, Brindisi Breeze.
“He is a big strong horse, is a jumper, handles soft ground and is one of our nicer young ones.”
This is a pretty tough maiden, though Gordon’s horse has just had his form franked by keskonrisk as im reading this, so with improvement set to come, he looks the one to beat here.
12.45 kempton Heross du seuil 11/4 1.5 pts EW bet 365 (various)
You may have already seen me mention him previously, he looked very smart in his aqps bumper and now makes his hurdles debut in a decent race, siroco jo has ran over hurdles in France already and brings some decent form to the table, with his narrow defeat to blackiron who is a decent type.
Her indoors ran at aintree in a listed juvenile hurdle on debut, though listed in name imo it didn’t have the strength or depth to it, I believe this is deeper.
I would be dissapointed if heross du seuil can not better the standard of the aintree race, and the rest of the horses that have previous ran in the uk,
if heross du seuil is to be a genuine triumph hurdle candidate, he needs to be beating, siroco joe here, who I’m likely to be inclined to believe, isn’t right at the very top of the tree at ditcheat with them having the likes of monmiral, good ball, houx gris, and hell red also in the stable.
I’m hoping that heross du seuil makes an instant impact tin the triumph hurdle market here. +5.4
Kempton 3.35 Barbados blue 5/1
1pt EW skynet (6 places)
Barbados blue is off a very low mark, she hosed up when last seen, in a weak race, however her run beforehand with ontheslopes and birds of prey reads well, she has had plenty of time to mature, and a mark of 119 subsequently looks lenient. -2
Kempton 1.15 son of camas 9/1
1pt EW William hill (5 places)
Although son of Camas has pulled up the last twice, imo he was travelling like the winner the last time before making a mistake. He can improve for fences, and his mark is very fair. +0.8
Tuesday. .No bet.
The cards improve significantly from the 26th, and there will likely be alot of bets between then and the end of the month, so we will keep the points for them.
I may put up 1 or more bets for the 26th on the 24th, if all races are priced up throughout. (Will notify)
I genuinely hope everyone enjoys there christmas and a few days rest, if there are any questions about the racing in the days ahead, or any requests to go through any particular cards, please feel free to PM me.
Just to note, please don’t worry about checking my site for notifications on Christmas day as i will absolutely not be putting any bets at all up, even for the next days racing, so if bets aren’t up in advance on the 24th, it will be up after 10am on the morning of the 26th.
PLEASE NOTE that I am still 100% contactable at all times, so if ANYONE happened to be alone at Christmas and wanted to chat about the racing, go through their Antepost bets, or even discuss responsible gambling as per the thread on here, PLEASE don’t hesitate to contact me via PM.
Merry Christmas, thankyou for your time.
IF Muthalad drifts out to 7/2 4/1 with 4 places it is my intention to add another 1.5pts EW on him. Just noting beforehand as there is 40 mins until post time, and don’t want anyone to miss out. Should I put up 10 mins before.
Pau 3.07 Swiss guard 5/2
Swiss guard made his debut over hurdles and ot was a neck and neck battle with now Willie Mullins triumph hurdle candidate haut en couleurs, he pair pulled a long way clear with the 3rd going on to win on his chase debut on his next start, and followed that up with a graded win.
Swiss guard now sets off on his chase debut, with imo some quality form to his name. He could be hard to beat here. -2
12.10 pau Muthalad 7/2 1pt win bet 365
Makes his debut here, I was hoping that he wouldn’t be fav, however he has been targeting this race, everything I have heard, would leave me to believe that he is highly regarded. He is expected to go well here.
Nick sentors, akteur, invader and Briac dechal are all to be respected making their debuts for top yards. -1
3 35 ascot (hills 6 places)
Botox has 18/1 0.5 pts EW
He ran a solid race last time up when ridden prominently just behind the pace, milkwood was a notable eye catcher there, and very unfortunate, however botox has himself stuck at the task pretty well behind, I think the quality of that race was pretty strong, therefore he should go well in this event off the same mark.
Night edition has gone up very little for running an absolute stormer in the fred winter, the time beforehand he was asked for absolutely nothing to recieve his mark. Therefore I believe that his mark may still be lenient, however it would take a big performance to win this on 1st run back, this is a big pot, which may have been under consideration for some time, rather than a stepping stone. So whether it’s here or the future, he is worth following forward imo.
Buzz hosted up last time and should go well even from a lofty mark, west to the bridge wants further and is looking to get his mark down, kid commando has found his mark as has oakley, imo benson and cormier have beaten trees. Malaya finds little off the bridle. Master debonair is too high in the handicap. lightly squeeze and time flies bte are respected as is Arrivederci who Is a very obvious one, he was in the process of running a very big race last time, war lord gives the form a good look to it, however arriverderci imo is now found in the market and I personally don’t think it was as strong a race as the one which botox has was in last time. -1
10.55 Cagnes sur mer. A johnny
0.5 pts EW 11/1 bet365.
He made his debut last time when he was beaten in excess of 30L.
However he caught my eye, and I really liked him, he jumped very well throughout, and was kept widest of all, when beaten he was asked for nothing.
I may be left to look silly here, however imo it was public schooling. With the experience he would have learned on debut, I’ll be surprised if he’s beaten 30L here. If ridden more prominently just off the pace on the inside, to make use of his jumping, imo he could go well here. -1
friday ascot 2.30 no odinary joe 2pts win. wiliamhill 7\2 -2
12.40 Newbury lecales article 5\6 3 points win betv sky hills pp +2.5
.Wincanton 12.35 Steady the ship
0.5pts EW 4/1 bet365
I’m not sure why the markets are opening so early, horses are getting cut straight away, so, I will have to put this up reasonably early, please PM me if this is an issue.
Steady the ship has ran in 2 bumpers with credit, last time he took on the very useful firestep, I believe that was a pretty competitive
bumper for one of its type, therefore it may throw up a few promising horses going forward.
Steady the ship should be competative here on hurdles debut.
I will be in attendance myself at wincanton tomorrow, so hopefully I may say him pass the winning line infront in the flesh. -0.1
On another note, the smaller stakes are ticking us over, while I’m waiting for opportunities, There is one I really like tomorrow, so I hope the horse in question is not odds on, and therefore we are able to back accordingly.
12.25 naas. won the toss.
7/1 paddy power 0.5pts EW
All eyes will be on the willie mullins filly echoes in rain, and she may well be very hard to beat here. But I liked the last run of won the toss in a bumper behind the very useful hollow games, the banger doyle and sin a bhfuil, I believe that to be good form, and should he build upon that now switched to obstacles, he may be able to cause an upset here. +0.38
12.50 cagnes sur mer. (Bet365)
Folsom prison 0.5pts EW 5/1
Tenerife sea 9/1 0.5pts win
He Ran well over fences last time out, when coming back off a 6 months break, folsom prison was held up, travelled well came home nicely without being asked for everything , now switched back to hurdles, he is 7 pounds worse off with the winner of that race, TENERIFE SEA however imo he was the best horse in that race, and he should come on significantly for that run,
he has big field handicap hurdle experience, and should go well from top weight here.
The aforementioned TENERIFE SEA
Is 7 pounds better off and has ran with great credit in better races than this when last seen over hurdles.
I believe this race is set up for her to get a soft lead, she may build up what will look to be an unattainable lead, with folsom prison coming out the pack and imo may well get to her on the run in.
For those who like to back to lay in running. Tenerife sea is likely to go short, with good potential to lay her in running imo, at the minimum of half the price she is now. +3.5
One to watch
10.10 Pau Horse piste
Mendizibal is on board, she is a newcomer, she may be priced bigger else where in the morning, however with the race being so early, I wont be giving enough notice if I waited.
Horse piste herself apparently works well from some trainer comments i had previously noted from jour de gallop.
This isn’t enough for me to make her an advised bet, however on a very poor days racing, she is worth noting and is of interest for the future.
Currently looking at mondays cards.
Silver streak 0.5 pts EW
8/1 BFSB or skybet 7/1.
Silver streak is a very consistent horse and won well on seasonal debut as he did last year, last time you can completely right off, so therefore with no epatante in here, it looks a very competitive yet tight race. I would give him every chance of being bang there, and feel that he somewhat under rated, being in the shadow of some top class horses.
ideally there will be no more rain.
Goshen is the unknown quantity, that is not certain to step up to this level, or alternatively could wipe the floor with them. However I’m not willing to back him here.
Stormy Ireland is interesting, this is undoubtably her trip, she deserves her chance here, my only worry is what she finds off the bridle at the end of the race, so thats something I’ll have to sit out and watch here, in terms of keeping a bet on her.
However shes the perfect horse to back now at 25/1 or on the exchange and lay in running, if anyone is that way inclined. in all honesty, that will by my main personal play tomorrow.
Of the remainder, ballyandy stays well and is a hardy horse, chtibello and call me lord are short of the very top grade, verdana blue has been in better form, sceau royal doesn’t get his good ground that he seems to significantly improve on. imo song for someone wants further, as does Sumerville boy. +0.3
hopefully there are more interesting betting heats on sunday, as it’s quite a poor days racing for a sat this week, therefore, I feel it’s right to hold fire for better opportunities.
1.42 Doncaster MATCH BET
GOA LIL to beat shut the box
Goa lil has plenty of ability, his jumping is quite exuberant and he has made mistakes, however he is learning on the job.
Imo he has far more ability than shut the box who just mugged him on the line last time after goa lil made another mistake at the last.
It wont be the prettiest watch, however anything close to a clear round here, and imo he beats shut the box comfortably.
1 or 2 mistakes, he may well do so anyway.
And with a clear round, he may actually win the race.
Therefore I make it odds on myself that go all beats shut the box in a match bet, despite goa lil being the outsider of the field, imo 5/4 is value, and I will be taking that -2
3.32 Blairgowrie 3/1 PP 1 pt win.
Blairgowrie was an expensive recruit as a store, he was being saved for the big sale’s bumper in the spring, therefore he should go well here. -1
12.52 warrick PATROCLUS 2pts win 13/8 PP
His ptp has worked out very well with Gaston PHEBUS, he travelled throughout the race like the best horse in the race, and was sold likewise. He should be able to win 1st time up here. -2
Newcastle 3.25 Marty time 11/4 1pt win B365
He has been targeted at the race for some time, Tom Lacey’s bumper runners are always to be respected And he is highly regarded. -1
In all honesty it looks a poor days racing,
However I do have something in mind from cagnes su mer, which atm is priced accordingly, so i will wait for all books to price up in the morning.
If its not the price that we need, then it would be NO BET and we go again tomorrow.
Highliner great 9/1 1pt EW. Bet365
gabriel leenders who has sold a few recently that have won 1st time up to go to Gordon and willie respectably, runs highliner great here. I have had a decent word that this horse has been targeted here, on numerous occasions over the last few weeks. Hopefully he backs it up. -2
Musselburgh 3.15 Sin a bhfuil 13/8 bet365 1.5 pts win
Emmet mullins makes the journey over to musselburgh, for a bumper.
Quite simply, on a line through the banger doyle, he should have been 4/5 here and should win. -1.5
1.17 pau Garfield 0.5 pt win 4/1 bet365
He has a whole load of back class over hurdles, i find it very hard to leave him unbacked. He has had some very lofty tasks on his last 2 starts over fences, he should find this easier. Whether that allows him to win today, we will find out +2
.1.52 pau Honey wolf 0.5pts EW 4/1 bet365
” i think she is a very good filly. She is a good jumper and has a good mind. She is very cool and will make her debut at Pau. I expect her to do well first time out already” -0.1
Pau 2.32 Reliable son. 3/1 1pt win bet365
A win 2 starts ago on the level, and just outside the places at listed level also on the flat last time, he has left nicholas Clement to join david cottin who has an incredible record at Pau. The standard already set here over hurdles looks achievable, hopefully he goes very well here. -1
Slip road 13/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
I like both of his runs in bumpers, I’m also lead to believe that I Chavez who he finished just behind last time, is pretty useful. +3.9
Exeter 12.55 Red lion lad 9/1 0.5pts EW paddy power.
Red Lion Lad won his ptp and makes his hurdles debut here, he travelled well throughout before making a mistake 2 out, and was then ridden back to challenge, he picked up very well from there on in, it was clear that he had the desire to win, the 2nd just couldn’t go with him any further, and what would have been the 3rd, was down to a walk and took a very tired fall at the last.
He hit the line full of running, which saw him win by a double digit winning margin in a time 12 seconds faster than the day’s average, all of which points to a horse that has started life very promisingly.
He was unsold at the sales for £135,000 and has since been sold privately to join david pipe, for a considerably bigger fee.
He is deffinately one to note for testing conditions and a test of stamina, I was very impressed by the way in which he picked up on testing ground.
It is 2 miles here, however he gets his conditions, the more rain the better. He will be doing his best work late.
4th December 2020
Official Going Soft, Heavy in places
Wincanton 215 darlac 9/2 0.5 pts EW bet 365.
He drops back into handicap company after running a stormer against enrilo in novice company last time. He is open to plenty of improvement through his jumping, which will hopefully hold up and allow him to be closely involved here. +2.7
3.30 Clonmel CAPODANNO. 1pt win. 4/5
I’m aware of the price but please read the full write up where it should be apparent why. if you dont want to back at such short odds, then feel free not to, I obviously will record this either way.
I’m still looking through tomorrows cards.
I know this horse pretty well, having come 2nd at Compiegne on debut.
He’s a strong traveller and an excellent jumper.
A very high percentage of daily members are CHELT members too,
But for the ones who aren’t, i will give you a one time only teaser.. and what I feel is an assist on this one.
He is an advised bet for members who are already on.
We have been following every entry and waiting for him.
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE HORSE.
The full reasoning is in the chelt section.
Please note that anyone who wants to upgrade to the chelt service, (which is only open to existing members of any kind)
Any paid daily bets fee would come off the existing price to upgrade.
Feel free to contact me about this. There is absolutely no obligation to do so. -1
Haydock 2.55 goobinator
9/2 0.5 pts EW sky (4 places)
The form with mcgowanns pass is reasonable, the latter was beaten by David pipes smart stayer main fact who is rising quickly through the ranks.
The pinkn has also undoubtably franked the form of goobinator, going very close against the useful floressa.
Nickys horse has problably found the right sort of level and trip here and is respected, as is ebony jewel, although her fall was no surprise last time.
Goobinator showed heart in a battle last time out, I think the rise of 4 pounds is fair, taking into account his last 2 runs.
I believe he can be closely involved here, And a tentative chance will be taken on him, in what in all honesty is a day lacking any quality racing. -1
2.00 southwell Fletch 0.5pts EW
10/1 paddy power.
I was very interested in truckers pass, He has been unlucky to bump into some smart horses, soaring glory in his bumper, and do your job in his maiden hurdle, both are very useful and give his form a strong look to it. it surely wont be long before he is getting his head infront.
However Unfortunately he now doesn’t run here, so is indeed worth noting for future entries, in any case, time may not have been wasted, as upon reviewing the video analysis of what would have been his opposition here, I came across..
FLETCH who was a recruit for olly murphy as a store and the 2nd top lot at the 2018 derby sale, he has recently had a wind operation.
he started off for the yard in a bumper when somewhat unfancied in the market, he travelled pretty well in the early stages, and looked workmanlike in the latter.
While he was lacking the pace of those up front, He did make some notable headway 2 furlongs out and stuck at the task pretty well, he did not have the pace to get involved there.
You can make your own judgement, however I personally do not agree with the written post race comments that he weakened there. However that written synopsis, may somewhat help us with his price here.
Such as the duration he has been in the yard, He is sure to be well schooled,
I do believe with obstacles infront of him, he will have more time to get involved.
in the future he may well be seen to better effect over a longer trip, however in such a contest as this, getting involved at the business end over 2 Miles, should not be completely beyond him, he should be doing his best work in the closing stages And I’m hopeful he can get involved here.
Pencreek has some strong form there on his hurdles debut behind 2 very smart horses, aswell as that seemingly giving him a credible chance here, it also is a prime example of how you can indeed improve for a switch to obstacles, with the reasoning that it is less about raw pace, having seen Pencreek himself being pushed along and outpaced in a couple of bumpers for willie mullins over in ireland.
In summary I’d be hopeful that FLETCH can do us justice here, he is one to note for further improvement from longer trips in the future. However right now is what we require, and I still feel his EW price is fair, taking into consideration both the task he is given, and the improvement I expect for the change in discipline. +0.75
1.20 carlisle Gaston phebus
Now no bet. Cashed out.
Gaston phebus was purchased for £100,000 before winning on debut after being fancied in the market, the 2nd has duly followed up since, and ineould like to think that gaston phebus has every chance of doing so here also. I know the horse that he finished just behind in his ptp patrocolus, is in training with nicky Henderson and potentially very useful, so I dont believe his hurdles debut was a fluke, however I’m hopeful that he can improve upon that effort.
3.22 carlisle guardino 3pts win 7/4 PP
A £170,000 pounds recruit to Ben paulings yard after being 2nd in his ptp,
The winner of the race Supreme Jet seemed to get a very soft lead there, and guardino was left the almost impossible job of trying to real him in on very heavy ground, imo he did very well to get as close as he did, was much the best of the chasing pack, and the one to take forward from the race. This may well leave him underestimated in the market here.
I’m banking on a view to the sea making up the market here with what is imo form figures that flatter him. I believe a view to the sea sets a very achievable standard, and will want further In time. I think he is beatable, and therefore I want to take him on with guardino. -3
1.46 fairyhouse gars de sceaux 1pt win 15/8 betv (7/4 betfred)
I have given gars de sceaux every chance of drifting, in blind hope of him being un noticed, which would have put him infront of PYM. he hasnt done so, I think current prices are fair. My max pts for a day is 8, so the remaining 1 will go on him. -1
3.15 Newcastle PYM 2pts EW 7/2 sky bet (4Places)
I think that PYM is actually under rated, he has ran a couple of poor races which have been in testing conditions, however I do like him, and think hes more than capable of winning at listed level and moving up the ranks, the beating of if the cap fits on seasonal debut shows his well being, and i will be disappointed if he dosent go extremely close here, nevermind the 4. I dont think the right graded races are beyond him in the future. -4
Gigalo Dai Dai 1pt EW 7/1 bet365
Atm. Im dictated by the prices. Gars de sceaux looked very smart in his ptp when easily accounting for magic tricks, magic tricks was also purchased for the same connections, and therefore as well as the visual impression, this also leads me to believe that, gars de sceaux may well indeed be very useful. I was impressed with the way in which he travelled well within himself throughout the race, and duly had put the race to bed with ease a good way out, however he made and survived a serious error 2 out and still mannaged to stay on well to the line, for a very comfortable victory. although be may well be better over further than 2 miles in time, I don’t feel that he lacks pace here.
Gigalo Dai Dai
Was consigned by Walter Connors, and purchased at the derby sale for £190,000 to go to Henry de bromhead
“He’s a lovely horse,” said Ross, who played the winning hand from the top tier of the auditorium high above the auctioneer’s rostrum. “The first offspring out of the mare is a decent horse, which is nice”
“We’ve been through all the horses here and he was one of our favourites. We had to push the boat out but we thought he was worth it given the type of individual he is. He’s been bought for Chris Jones so he’ll go back to Chris’s place, Killeen Glebe, and be prepped there. I’m not sure where he’ll head after that.
“When you’re buying a store at that sort of money you have to think that they’re capable of going to the very top, and the stallion can obviously get a good horse.”
Connors himself said
“I bought him as a foal out in France, myself and Seamus Murphy buy a few foals each year and he was one of those. He’s been with us since then and we’ve always liked him. Al Namix is proven and, if we can, we’ll go for the progeny of those proven sires.”
On topping the session, Connors added: “It’s a great excitement for us, but we’ll get just as much excitement following him in the future. He’s a very attractive horse and I hope he fulfills the dreams of the people who’ve bought him.”
In summary, imo this race looks a very strong renewal of its type, hook up has some nice form in relation to this, and has a grade 1 future entry which is plain to see, however I am hoping that she is making up the market here, for these 2 types of real future potential, I do not think the level hook up has ran to previously is unachievable, and I do believe these are nice prospects. -2
1.50 Newbury Champagne platinum 0.5 pts EW 15/2 william hill (4places
Iv heard the talk of rathhill many times and he is on lowly mark, so of anyone wanted to take the risk to small stakes, thats there perogative, however I am going with CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, He runs here in a handicap hurdle of 137, he was fair as a novice over 2m, highly tried and beaten at the top level, won well enough when at the lowest level, however one thing I did notice is that I strongly felt that he was a 2 and a half miler over hurdles and he was running in the wrong races. The intermediate trip over hurdles is what he belatedly gets here, nicky has a decent hand in this he has won the race handily the last 2 years. I am very hopefull that this is a target rather than a prep for over fences, I believe that he has the trip and mark to show his best here. +0.44
Thur 26th NO BET
1.40 hereford No quarter asked 0.5pts EW at 9/2 bet365
Princess midnight is up 4 pounds for winning a very poor race, and I’m willing to take her on, no quarter asked is a solid enough hurdler, lebanver bel Ami who beat him last time has managed to get off the mark in a nov handicap chase off a mark of 104, no quarters asked was headed in the closing stages of that race and drops down in trip by 3f to 2 miles here.
Apart from a mistake 2 out 3 starts ago, he has been a solid jumper in the main, any improvement at all from the switch to fences, and he should be going close here off a mark of 100 in a race which shouldnt take much winning for horses open to improvement. -1
Firestep southwell 1.37 3 pts win. 5/2 bet365
It is possible someone else may price up bigger, so i have left room for that. However 365 is B.O.G
If he is cut sharply, anyone that wants to wait for the prices elsewhere, that’s there perogative.
I believe that firestep is potentially very useful.
I Wasnt expecting him to run into a well bred coolmore horse, (all shook up)
All shook up (mrs john magnier)
“he has done plenty of work at home. I’ve taken him to the grass a few times and he has been showing up nicely. I hope he can acquit himself well. He will definitely be a jumper in time”
and there are also a few pricey unraced types in here, 2 bought from the same sale as firestep for a higher fee, which are ben paulings curio bay and the F O’B imperial racing club horse imperial storm. And david pipes brocade racing ptp winner neon moon.
The already raced bumper horses do not worry me, as I believe firestep can beat the existing standard seen, however I’m obviously weary of the unknows. And the possibility of bumping in to a very good one.
FIRESTEP is clearly NO CERTAINTY to win.
however I will stick to my reasoning beforehand and therefore a chance will be taken, to take a decent cut at him here. +7.5
Ludlow 3.20 house island.
1pt win bet365 2/1
His form with kalooki last time even though well held would look to be pretty solid. His hurdles form is also of a good standard. Imo evan William’s horse looks too keen, pigeon ran awful last time. Don bersy has come through the ptp field. And all in all it’s a pretty poor race. So house island is a consistent type who should be well capable of running to 140+ which should be good enough to win here. It’s not the price I was dreaming of, however 2/1 is very fair. +2
12.33 Exeter. Lair du vent. 1pt win 4/1 bet 365.
He was beaten last time out by the wolf however imo lair du vent just slightly over jumped the last 3 and lost a bit of momentum when pecking slightly from the back of his fences, however he showed that he had something left in the tank to come back between each fence and attack the next.
I did like his jumping technique in the whole, and I am expecting him to get round here.
He diddnt go down by far at all, and was only just ran out of it on the run in.
the revised terms today are much more in in his favour. For me he was the one to take out of the race going forward,
I believe that he has the potential to reverse the form off these terms, hopefully that may be good enough to go very close
In the future, imo they may want to drop him to 2 and a half miles, and make all, where he may be able to take a similar race as this, over that trip, with ease.
However I am hoping he gets away with the 3 miles here on raw ability, as i do like what I saw last time. +4
2.00 cork jukebox jive 12/1 0.5 pts EW bet365
Jukebox jive has had 2 recent spins of the flat, his mark has dropped down to 123 and he now has the assistance of a 7 pound claimer on board, his recent flat runs, would give him no excuse kn fitness, the light weight woukd give him every chance should be be good enough here. -1
12.30 chepstow MERCUTIO ROCK 1pt 4/1 (sp 11/1) EW bet365. He ran well in a bumper last time out, however he was out paced there, obstacles infront of him, may show considerable improvement, the form itself from the race looks good enough to go well here regardless. +1.2
GENTLEMAN VALLEY 10/1 Catterick 3.33 0.5pts EW. PaddyP
Was Purchased at the goffs derby sale in 2019, he was sold as 1 of the top 15 lots for £130,000 to ben pauling, he looked a fine specimen, and is related to Guillaume macaire’s smart invincter, who won the PRIX GEORGES DE
TALHOUET-ROY and placed 2nd in the PRIX CAMBACERES as a 3yo. I personally backed gentlemen valley on debut at Hereford before he was unfortunately taken out due to the change in ground conditions. I think he is worth a small play here. And I’m hopeful that he can be a nice acquisition for the yard, +0.75
Deise Aba 11/2 williamhill (4places)
0.5 pts EW
Has been a model of consistency over fences, his beating of cloudy glen reads well in relation to this race, with that form line running through a considerable ammount of the key contenders here. His run in the Kim muir was very credible and the test of stamina here looks sure to suit. -1
2.25 haydock KALASHNIKOV 25/1
bet victor 0.5 pts EW
I want to take a chance on Kalashnikov here at 25/1. He has all the weight and hasn’t ran over hurdles since the supreme, however does have big field handicap hurdle experience when winning the betfair hurdle. He has not made the most convincing of chasers, and I believe that is due to his jumping rather than a lack of talent.
despite the big weight here, I do feel that he would have improved in the past over hurdles for a step up in trip of which he gets here. So therefore a chance will be taken on him being ready enough here.-1
3.12 wincanton EW extra bet365
Goa lil 5/1 4 places 1pt EW
Scardura 17/2 4 places 1pt EW
The pair bring the strongest chase form onto the race, the pair also need a clean round. I think pauls horse is now underpriced with editeur de gite who was a genuine contender now out of the race, I feel it’s now time to act. -4
FIRESTEP NOT DECLARED. If you havent backed already. DO NOT BACK.
Despite being jocked up, unfortunately firestep is a NR. I 100% take the blame for this. As I made a decision based on current ground conditions and that he suddenly got jocked up. I have noted this, please Wait until the end of the Month,or your individual term and if we are not in profit I will sort something out.
3:50 pm Coral Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Standard National Hunt Flat Race 1m 7f 152y
Earl Biffy Biffen
No Hubs No Hoobs
Sixty Dollars More
The Denholm Bandit
Top of The Bill
Who Is That
Saturday 3.50 ascot FIRESTEP Nr2pts win 5/1 williamhill
Hendo has 3 entries
The bomber liston is declared for …
Friday, 20 November 2020 – 3:33
(Overnight) at Catterick Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Intermediate Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race) (1m7½f)
Soft, Good to Soft (in places)
Wraysford has no other entries, however connections also have 1 for paul nicholls in the race. However paul has lando kid jocked up. So it is plausible that he could take firesteps place.
Firestep was taken out twice on account of the heavy ground previously, the current conditions are soft, good to soft in places, he is now jocked up here with Jerry McGrath on board. I have previously given me reasoning on him.
it is expected to be dry
and windy on Thursday with light showers forecast through Friday
and overnight to Saturday 1-2mm. Saturday looks mainly dry.
Looking at the race itself, horses with the previous runs, do not worry me.
Wonderwall is also jocked up, and I am somewhat worried about him being smart, I do know that they chose the names carefully, and kept that name provisionally for the best one of the 4 purchased.
“It’s been fun watching them up Warren Hill. They look lovely horses, I particularly like the Yeats, which we’ve called Wonderwall. He looks a real athlete.”
So his current odds of 14/1 are somewhat appealing when you consider Richard’s (23 per cent) strike-rate over jumps is impressive.
So I am going to add a small win bet on him, and I will add in the long shot thread, which isn’t mandatory.
For our main bet, i want to take a chance on FIRESTEP here. I will personally take the blame should he not run
With 2 pts win the stake today. I have been waiting 2 weeks for him, so I cant leave it down to luck on the prices should be be declared.
We may add more on firestep on the day, if he is declared and we are lucky enough to still get that price and therefore would be able to back EW However I’m worried that it may be long gone by then, so I feel I have to take the chance to lock it in. Please note that there is a chance that he may not get declared.
2.55 Thurles Karen’s gift 2.55 thurles 8/1 bet365. 0.5pts ew
Her saddle slipped last time where she was pulled up, in a race of which she went off at 4/1 and was quite well fancied. Her previous 2 runs were consistent, and that wasnt much of a surprise as she had the ability to beat sharks dime a dozen in a ptp, the latter is a very consistent 125 horse. So Karen’s gift, with an intact saddle should be capable of carrying on her former consistency, where she woukdnt need to improve much to feature very well here. Imo she is priced as if she was literally pulled up. -1
Wed No Bet
I’m aware that we are having quite a poor little run to start this month, it is always going to happen with variance in betting, however there is plenty of time left to turn that around, we wont be chasing, im just waiting for the right opportunities to do carry on as usual. There are some decent entries in the horizon.
17th 1.25 Saint cloud CELESTIN
1pt EW 6/1 bet365
He broke slowly last time, was always on the back foot, and was tenderly handled when it was clear he wasnt going to win. Irska who runs today and finished infront of him there, was always handy throughout the race, and was ridden for her life. If celestin breaks well here, I believe he is value at current odds, to reverse that form, which of he managed to do so, would leave him bang there at the business end of the race.
A clean break from the stalls is vital. -2
kempton 6.00 JONAH JONES 1pt EW 7/1 bet365. he was badly hampered 2 starts ago in a race which is worth watching back. This was a class 2. He has ran well since in class 2 company. He now drops in grade down to class 3, and somehow has managed to drop down 1 pound in the weights for his poly track debut.
This race is winnable for him and he is entitled to go very well here. -2
STOP LINE 5/1 1pt EW (5 places) sky
GAGNEUR 5/1 1pt EW (5 places) sky
STOP LINE Has ran some very credible races, and has been knocking on the door. His last race he ran very well to finish 3rd, 3L behind becquairainbow, the 4th loradame has since come out and bolted up in a similarly competitive race.
His previous race he diddnt have the pace of GAGNEUR, however he was running him down at the finish when again both were behind becquarainbow.
GAGNEUR has plenty of toe and it would be very dangerous for the opposition, should he be allowed to open up and go for home early, He will travel into this race very well, he is a little green, so it could be vital that in the closing stages, imo he should be taken to his right over the last to make use of the stands rail, there is a danger that He may well get lonely out in front, should he be in 1st place over the last as i expect him to be.
High king brings some quality open class form and has beaten stop line narrowly over fences, I’m of the opinion that the Guy Cherel owned STOP LINE has improved since and may narrowly get the verdict in that battle, however high king is a highly respected danger to our pair here, I just cant bring myself to back all 3. Therefore i have been as selective as I can be and decided to cut him.
Imo the market is very right here in terms of the front of the market, however imo they should be 7/2 co favourites rather than the current 5/1.
Hopefully it will be GAGNEUR infront at the last with STOP LINE attempting to run himself and high king down. If GAGNEUR does get caught on the run in, I’m banking on STOP LINE having the staying power to hopefully get the better of high king late on.
I expect BOTH of our selections to be in the first 5, so I make them BOTH a bet with the sky bet market which is EW 5 places.
We are going for a WIN AND A PLACE -2
3.00 Cheltenham BALLYANDY
1 pt EW 13/2 (6 places) sky
Despite being top weight, he is battle hardened, and this race should be a war of attrition of which is right up his street. He says the 2 miles very strongly. Monsieur leciq went very close in this race off 145 last year, on a line through him, ballyandy should be going close off 151 here. There is potential in the race such as Edwardstone who I do like for later assignments, however its ballyandy here for me today.
Imo the conservative route of 6 places at 13/2 and BOG with sky Is the best way to go should you be able to do so.
15/2 with 5 places however is Fine of you so wish. +0.23
2.15 Cheltenham AL DANCER
1 pt EW 8/1 (6 places) pp/ hills
He has the run already on the board this season beating a respectable horse in master tommytucker, who has since followed up.
Al dancer was travelling well in the lightning novice chase where he made a couple of novices mistakes and wasnt far off getting back up to beat mister Fisher, imo if that race was 2 1/2 miles, al dancer would have won.
I believe there is more improvement to come from al dancer at the intermediate trip. +0.45
Thursday/ Friday NO BET
12.45 compiegne MARTINS SPIRIT
1pt EW 9/2 bet365
Martin’s spirit had some classy flat form before being punted off the boards in a race which he was beaten into 3rd by the winner horse maha.
He was cruising when falling on his next Start.
He then took on horse maha again, jumped well, and it was well in the balance at the finish where horse maha showed the extra stamina and just edged ahead at the line.
I believe Martins spirit has improved with each start to date, coming off the flat, he is learning with each start over hurdles, imo he is the better long term prospect of the pair. They meet again, and Martin’s spirit is 2 pounds better off today, he should improve once again for the run, and I’d be hopeful that he can go very close here. -2
.1.45 huntingdon ROWLAND WARD
0.75 pts EW 13/2
I thought he was unlucky last time, I backed him, he was badly hampered when imo going well, it could be argued that he was well in contention. This has has kept his handicap mark down to 129, which is very fair imo.
His win beforehand reads well with thyme white and Goa lil behind off levels.
I’d be hopeful that he will be fit enough to do himself justice here. +
3.10 chepstow. COCONUT SPLASH
2pts EW 5/1. Hills
He won his ptp nicely before going to evan William’s, I liked his hurdles runs alot. He made a very good debut last year against the smart imperial alcazar. Before again running a stormer against son of Camas and king roland when falling whilst still in contention at the last. His win came in a fairly poor race, however he did it well enough. Imo this is quite a difficult opener with the likes of anemoi the obvious danger, however imo coconut SPLASH could be pretty smart over fences.
5/1 is very fair, I like him, I am hopeful that he can win here. +0
1.00 auteuil Hermes baie
8/1 (3places) ew extra bet365
He has ran with great credit to date, he was beaten into 3rd behind 2 of these last time, however not by far, and if you watch back all his races, its easy to make a case for him reversing the form of 2kg better terms here.
Faller at the 1st. Shame, as the form worked out perfectly during the race itself. -2
In the same race. 1.00 auteil
The same applies to BALADIN DE MESC
1pt insurebet (2 places) 14/1 PP
he is also on better terms and isn’t the best jumper of a fence so reverts to hurdles here and is considerably over priced imo.
I would advise you taking the insurebet with PP at 14/1
(If he is 2nd would be money back) -1
3.25 Auteuil qeenies cash
13/2 0.5pts EW bet365
She ran a poor race on her reappearance over fences, however before that, she asserted at the end of the race over hurdles, when well fancied, to be 2nd finishing infront of la doix who is shorter here in the betting, she is 2 pounds better off today, a reproduction of that form would see her go well here. A chance is taken that the switch back to hurdles will do the trick. -1
Aintree 1.00 Quoi de neuf 8/1
0.75 pts EW hills
Quoi de neuf won a decent ptp very readily before embarking purchased by evan Williams for £180,000. He jumped and travelled well throughout, the horse he easily beat, followed up in his ptp next time, the 3rd opened his account over hurdles before finishing 2nd to the very smart DARVER star on his novice chase debut.
Quoi de neuf opened his account over hurdles at the west time of asking, beating a decent mid 130s horse in redzor. With now 140 horses 3rd and 4th behind.
I can easily excuse his run next time in what was an absolute bog
His subsequent races were in big field quality handicap hurdles, where imo he ran with great credit.
He was given a mark of 133 over hurdles which imo is fair, however imo he is open to further improvement with the change of discipline such was the authority in which he won his ptp. The trainer came 2nd with present value here last year. Imo quoi de neuf is a more suitable candidate for this years renewal and therefore should have every chance of being involved here. +0.45
12.50 fontwell windance 0.5pts EW 16/1 bet365. Anthony honeyball is in fine form. Windance a 30k purchase in dec 2018 made his racecourse debut last time when well gambled on in a bumper. the horse that finished just behind him has won next time up over hurdles at taunton, beating a subsequent winner. The winner of the bumper itself that win dance ran in, is smart. There is no disgrace at all in being beaten by him 1st time up. The way windance stayed on that day at the end of the race, I believe there is improvement to come. The fav cost 100k and was beaten by a nice horse last time, however isn’t a world beater imo, therefore i see this race as winnable. -1
12 55 newbury. Amarillo sky 0.5 pts EW 15/2 PP
Won his ptp in March before being sold to colin tizzard for £280,000 The preceding two renewals of this race had been won by 2 very uselful horses in Andy Dufresne and Sporting John.
The time of Amarillo Sky’s heat was slightly the slower than that of Gars de sceaux, (now with gordon elliot) however he looked to win with something in hand in a race in a race which he and the runner-up pulled well clear, he travelled very well out front and jumped very fluently throughout.
Bowe added: “Amarillo Sky [by Westerner and a smart-looking winner at Borris House on March 1] is a slick jumper who travels very quickly, so I could see him being suited by dropping back to two miles in time”
This is undoubably a very tough opener. With soaring glory looking a very nice horse to me. i have heard a strong word for Hendo’s. Danehill kodiak has very classy flat form, and olly Murphy’s horse looks pretty useful.
However at the prices I find the potential of amarillo sky hard to ignore -1.
3.50 musselburgh ROXANYA 10/1 0.5pt EW bet365
She was unfancied when running in a decent bumper behind delvino running an awful race to be beaten by 83L.
On form she has no chance here, HOWEVER she was entered to run again in the race that Sir Gerhard hosed up in on the 31st oct. And was taken out of the races to be declared a non runner due to the ground conditions, as stated.
Previously noted quotes from musselburgh.
Crawford said: “The prize money at Musselburgh is good, particularly on New Year’s Day. Mind you it’s only good if you’re winning some of it”
“Our trips across are straightforward because we are based in the Larne area. We are back and forward often enough so we’ve got it down to a fine art”
They have made the effort to come up to musselburgh (390 Mile round trip) in the search of decent ground which she will get here, therefore I am of the opinion that they believe that wasn’t her true running which she showed on debut,
In the last 12 months They have come over from Ireland to the uk and struck with.
Streets of doyen
This looks to be considerably easier than the 2 races of which ROXANYA has been entered up over in Ireland.
And Connections have previously held an 18% strike rate at the track.
all of the above, makes me inclined to take a small chance on her here at the prices. -1
3.25 Exeter KILLER CLOWN 0.5pts EW 8/1 PP/ betfred (5 places)
Won a ptp nicely for colin Bowe before being purchased by Emma lavelle for £135,000 the 2nd from the race is yet to run, however the well held 3rd has managed to win a couple of chases on the bounce recently. Killer clown was well on top, jumped pretty well and won cosily asserting at the end of the race.
He managed to win a bumper on decent ground and has ran with great credit over hurdles, he finished 12L behind the big breakaway, with subsequent winners craigneiche and the wolf just in front of him, and just 1.25L behind Falco blitz receiving 6 pounds.
Killer clown has recieved a hurdles mark of 124 which i believe to be very reasonable, he is unexposed and now uses this mark to switch to fences. Everything I have seen in his ptp and over hurdles leads me to believe that he can improve on this mark with the switch of codes to his benefit. He is up to 3 miles here, which is the trip where he asserted in the closing stages of his ptp.
His early unseat last time was not of his own doing, and I would be happy to write that off completely.
Therefore I give him every chance of going well here, and would be hopeful that he can both have a clean round, and be involved in the finish of the race. -1
2.45 Hereford ECLAIR SURF 0.5pts EW @6/1 (hills/365)
Oscar Robertson jumped well in a ptp to finish 2nd, where the 3rd home who was beaten 7L in total , was then subsequently beaten a distance behind ECLAIR SURF on his next start. Eclair surf jumped beautifully that day, and went on to be purchased by Emma lavelle for £140,000.
On his hurdles debut, again he jumped well and won easily beating crozier and moroder at his ease. Moroder recently finished very closely matched in a handicap hurdle to holly james (who also runs here) where he was a shade unlucky late on.
Eclair surf went on to run in the challow, which was a big test of stamina (in the ground conditions) of which subsequently he wasnt up to and he made a tired late fall, he then ran in a decent class 4 novice hurdle at Exeter under a penalty, where he again weakened late on, however the race itself reads reasonably well in this context.
He reappears here over what i believe to be his correct trip of 2m4, I also believe that the switch to fences could well bring about improvement. The break since March hopefully brings him back to the encouraging form he showed early on, which therefore would see his hurdles mark of 120 as very workable over this discipline, imo he is running in a race of which is effectively a drop in grade in all but name. I’d be hopeful that he will be involved here. If for whatever reason he isn’t, they may need to look at his wind, and we can revisit him at a later date, as imo there is a decent horse in there. However i think it was as much that he has a fair bit of pace and I believe he was being ran over the wrong trip, so for tomorrow’s impending race, hopefully it will be the day that it all comes together. +0.1
1.10 cork. Indiana jones . 1pt win 11/4 bet365. This is a horse I have been waiting for. His form reads very well. Hopefully he obliges today. +2.75
12.43 compiegne Goodwin. 1.5 pts EW @4/1 bet365. Goodwin is a very talented individual, who has not always given his all in the finish, he got off the mark last time and is up to listed class here, I have always liked him, and I believe victory last time will give him a vital confidence booster, imo he can go on from there, and hopefully be more prolific. With a clear round I believe that He has every chance of victory here. Faller when going very well -3
October archives below
Finishing Total +1.23 pts
2.45 wetherby ROKSANA 1.5pts win 10/3 hills/365/betfred/ betvictor
Roksana imo wants all of 3 miles these days, she ran very creditably last season against the likes of Sumerville boy in open company, however last year she carried a hefty penalty.
Now without this, she receives 7 pounds from the geldings, and almost a stone from the stayers hurdle winner, which Imo makes her very interesting here. She should be very competitive. +5
Down royal 3.00 SAMCRO 3pts win @15/8 William hill/ unibet
Easy Game is match fit, he has taken a decent scalp in the storyteller, however he goes particularly well early season on the good ground he has had, the storyteller would go nowhere near winning a Ryanair, and I just cant have him being odds on to beat SAMCRO. Samcro a leading contender for the ryanair chase, won the marsh chase at the cheltenham festival in March where but for making a mistake at the last, imo he would have won handily by 3L going away. Even though he wont be fully revved up and gives away 2 pounds to the former, I still believe he has the beating of easy game. Fully fit he is a considerably superior horse imo, and long odds on,
1st time up, anything around or above 6/4 I feel is strong value, with a clear round, I expect victory for samcro.
Please now cashout MOMELLA . I wouldnt advise this EW bet with now only 2 places. Please replace at 9/2 1 pt win with hills. (Avail of the boost of you would like to) or for your own ease, the 4/1 at bet365 is acceptable. -1
3.28 newton abbot. MOMELLA
1pt EW 6/1 bet365
MOMELLA has tumbled down the ratings to a mark of 127. She has had a very long break and a wind OP. She also has the assistance of Brian Carver taking 5 pounds off. If she comes back to anything like she was, she could be very well in here. I am more than willing to take a chance at 6/1 advised to cashout this bet.
LONGHOUSE POET 2pts insurebet/ cover bet. 6/4 (3 places) bet365
Imo this effectively gives us almost a free bet at the win. An insurebet (cover bet) with 3 places is money back if you are 2nd or 3rd. And win if your 1st
Taken from our chelt review
“another who ran poorly here, I liked his previous runs, although I thought they made a bit too much use of him the start prior. Chasing looks his game, 3 Miles and hold up tactics imo would see considerable improvement. He’s a horse that could win a nice race and take a big scalp at a price imo (pre cheltenham)”
He comes in here with latest exhibition and run wild fred to beat. Run wild fred his no forlorn hope who improves throughout the season. Latest exhibition is a really nice horse without prior chasing experience
Longhouse poet imo will improve for a fence, he may be able to catch the pair cold here. I will be undoubatbly dissapointed if be finishes out the 3. -2
Very disappointing. No excuses. Winner won with plenty in hand imo.
1.40 taunton ESPRESSINO 0.5pts EW 17/2 sky (5 places)
Espressino went off favourite last time to beat the current market fav of this race, he was going ok when fell, and was previously tumbling down the ratings to a mark of 86 before he found his level, his trainer C.Down won this race last year with Midnight Midge. Although this may be a coincidence, its interesting enough for me to see expressino turning up here in the same race off a mark that he may be defy. I’m willing to take a small chance on him here. +5.31
4.10 taunton STORM HOME 12/1 0.5pts EW bet 365.
He is a long way from his ptp form of failing at the last when likely to beat subsequent multiple graded winner Getabird. However he has tumbled down the ratings to his lowest chase mark of 119. This imo is his easiest and most suitable assignment. He has shown to be in half decent form lately, where prior to his last run over hurdles, he had a couple of decent performances against better horses than this. If he can bring that form over to this discipline, he will give himself a chance, as the horses here with winning form, like harry frys earth leader, have just won a couple of average ptp races that diddnt take much winning. Therefore I’m hopeful that storm home will appreciate what i see as effectively a drop in class in all but name. Imo very unlucky and going well when tipping up. Imo deffinately one for a similar race. -1
12.50 chepstow ONLY THE BOLD 6/1 PP 1.5pts EW
Looked very smart when winning his ptp before subsequently being purchased by Evan Williams for £215,000, he quickened clear on the run in to win nicely, he makes his novice hurdle debut here over 2m3f which should be no issue. The 3rd from the race ilcoura has just won his bumper nicely as we speak, after being heavily gambled on last time when coming 2nd to a subsequent winner. Therefore only bold has substance to his form and solid credentials here.
The former trainer backs this up.
Warren Ewing hailed Only The Bold as “as good a horse as I’ve had” after the Tyrella maiden winner topped the Tattersalls February Cheltenham Sale on Friday when knocked down to Evan Williams for £215,000.
The five-year-old son of Jeremy provided the master of Bernice Stables with a tidy profit too, as he had been picked up for €46,000 at the 2018 Goffs Land Rover Sale.
“I’m delighted,” said Ewing. “I think this is an exceptionally good horse – I think he’s as good a horse as I’ve had. He’s a special horse and you’d expect to be seeing him back here next year.
“He’s always pleased me in everything he’s done and it’s very hard to do what he did on that ground at Tyrella.”
Therefore I believe he is a solid contender for today’s race. And will be very hopeful that he can get off the mark over hurdles at the first attempt -0.33
2.35 Bangor GEMIRANDE 0.5pt EW 10/1 PP
Well bred and also well regarded by his former trainer Isabelle Pacault
Gemirande has moved over from france having won his last start in a chase at Pau, he dictated throughout jumping well, and stayed on nicely when it looked like gramanee was coming to challenge.
His previous 3 bumper runs read fair, with his sole hurdles start reading considerably better, he finished 3rd retaining his valuable novice status, having possibly taken up the lead a shade early of a strong pace, losing 2nd just at the line with the 4th and 5th behind him going on to win their next start.
He is unlikely to be a future world beater
And It is not the easiest maiden hurdle to start in, However He has the advantage of prior experience here and I expect him to jump well throughout which certainly should be of advantage in a maiden hurdle.
He has been with Venetia William’s since the 11th of February, Any improvement made at all, should hopefully see him involved here.
I have no doubt, that he is capable of winning a maiden hurdle, and he is one of many I have been awaiting an entry for. -1
2.00 Bangor GOOD BOY BOBBY
2pt win hills.
I think on tomorrow’s terms, that evens looks a bit of a gift. I have just gone down and backed him accordingly. I expect him to go off infront, make use of his jumping and stamina at the trip. And ultimately stay infront for the win. +2
2.05 wexford sir Jack Thomas.
0.5pts EW 9/2 bet365
Sir Jack Thomas has been running with credit on the flat. He made his handicap debut over hurdles recently and shaped Pretty well. He is running on slightly terms, is undoubtably fit, and hopefully will make his presence felt here. -1
WE Are going back in on KILLER KANE. Add another 1pt EW now at 6/1 with bet365
Imo he is overpriced for the sole reason that nobody knows who he is.
Imo he needs to run to 125 to place. 135 could be good enough to win. He is capable. +1
12.47 Aintree. KILLER KANE 1pt EW 11/2 bet365. +0.75
Same reasoning as the antepost NH thread
now a TOTAL of 2pts EW on killer kane.
5.35 dundalk I AM MAGNETIC 1 PT EW 4/1 William hill (4 places)
I AM MAGNETIC had some smart entries early in the season, imo he has improved with each run, the form of his head defeat last time towards well in relation to this race. I do believe that he is on the incline, and with a 7 pound claimer now on board. This may well be where he gets his head infront. -2
3.00 cheltenham. FIX SUN
0.5pts EW at 8/1 hills (6 places)
We backed him last time where he was non runner. He was a big weak individual last year who is open to plenty of improvement. He was beaten at long odds on on his last start, however made a race ending mistake, so don’t take it literally. He should travel very well on the bridle throughout the race, and assuming that he comes off it, I would be hoping that he can find more. He should be bang there turning in for home. -1
2.15 Carlisle RIBBLE VALLEY 4pts win. 10/11 888sport
This one is optional as he’s so short. But it’s hard for me not to put him up when I have backed so strongly myself. and ofcourse will be added to the P&L
I like him alot, he has a high cruising speed and plenty of quality, he gives weight away here however I personally see him as well able to do so. Assuming he has strengthened up over the summer, he should take this race. in the foreseeable future, imo he wont be disgraced what so ever at graded level. +3.64
2.57 lingfield FAUSTINOVICK 7/2 williamhill. 2pts EW
He chased him andy dufresne in a ptp with conflated a held 3rd behind the pair before falling, this form reads well, he jumps well, and should be well capable of improving on what he did over hurdles, conditions of the race should work out well for him, with only hurdles form and not his ptp experience considered. The step up in distance should also strongly suit.
HOLD THAT TAUGHT also in this race, was bought by Venetian William’s for £220,000 after easily beating battle of actium in his ptp, battle of actium has gone on to be a decent bumper horse for Joseph o’brien, HOLD THAT TAUGHT is markedly up in trip here and worth noting for the future. Hold fire for now imo, However if he was to drift markedly to around 10/1. This also may see him worth taking a chance on here imo. -4
3.10 fontwell THE RUSSIAN DOYEN 12/1 William hill 0.5pts EW
Kisses for katie may be the one to beat having gone up 4 pounds for falling at the last when bang there. However I’m willing to take a chance on the Russian doyen here. The Russian doyen in context to the rest of the field has dropped down the weights having ran against far superior rivals to today’s opposition, he is being targeted at the paddy power gold cup over fences, so although he will come on for the run, he should be ready enough to do himself justice here. 12/1 somewhat underestimates his chances and despite the likes of K.F katie in the field there are also quite a few harshly treated for winning very poor quality races. +0.70
1.07 compiegne MICA MALPIC. 15/8 1pt win bet365. Refer to our members horses to follow thread, where potential triumph hurdle horse Mica Malpic won the prix grandak nicely on debut beating PRUNAY who was subsequently placed at graded level. In a race full of winners this looks the strongest form. The nicole pair are unexposed, however I’d have thought Mica Malpic will go off closer to evens to carry his penalty, rather than the current 15/8. I’d be hopeful that he is good enough to win here, before stepping up to graded level. Where the Grade 1 prix Cambaceres may be on the horizon. Likely injured. -1
4.30 Windsor paraqueen
0.5 pts EW at 25/1 bet365
Has been in poor form however won this last year by 7L (also in testing conditions). Then was also just beaten a head at her next appearance at the track. It could just be that she is a Windsor specialist. And shes back down to that mark of 54 where just beaten here. +2.63
In total she has had 3 runs at Windsor. 2 wins and a head defeat. Whilst making no impact elsewhere.
4.30 Windsor BALLYDOYLE 0.5 pts EW
runs here for Gary Moore.
He had some fair form in Germany and france. He made a poor start over hurdles before winning on the all weather off a mark if 62. He now switches back to turf and the handicapper has taken a chance by dropping to 59. The claimer on board effectively drops him another 5 pounds. He has consistent form on very testing conditions. At 14/1 I think hes worth taking a small chance on here. -1
2.40 plumpton. Simon the great
0.5pts EW at 5/1
He hasn’t won for 2years however this is a poor race and he has his chance. He has tumbled down the weights, and most importantly is back up to 2 and a half miles here, he stays out the trip well at this level and imo should find this considerably easier than last time, a 3 pound claimer is on board. So if he is going to win one, this is it. -1
3.40 NAAS SOUL SEARCH 1.5pts EW 9/2 PP herself and etneya have the best current form in the book, soul search has ran into plenty of good horses and has ran consistently well, she steps up to a mile here having stayed on well in her races over 7f previously, this could well be the trick in getting her head infront. I think she has leading claims here, and i will be very dissapointed if she is out the 4. -3
Fortunes Melody 1.35 auteuil
Hotesse Du Chenet (FR) beat Fortunes Melody last time, however the latter beat her narrowly twice previously giving away weight. Now the roles are reversed and this may well be enough to swing the form around once again. 7/2 imo is a bit of value about doing so. -1
1.50 uttoxeter EDEN DU HOUX 0.5 pts EW 7/1 bet 365
his ptp form reads well enough, and gives him experience of jumping fences, he was very smart in bumpers then slowly started to show his way over hurdles ending in a decent handicap hurdle of finishing behind mc fabulous, and very close to fergal o’Brien’s horse which beat emitom on his chase debut. His mark should be workable and I would be hopeful that he can go well in a very competitive race. -1
FLEGMATIK IS THE ONLY BET FOR TOMORROW
12.50 Carlisle FLEGMATIK 9/1 bet365. 0.5pts EW
Flegmatik started his career in france, he was ridden forcefully and jumped beautifully round the course over the fixed brush hurdles, he was beaten by some very smart horses, and stayed on well to finish not far behind saint roi.
Having jumped the fixed brush around Auteuil, He should have no issue with fences here. His hurdles mark used here is ok.
despite him not being the best of these over hurdles, the 2 mile trip will suit him most of all, with the change of discipline almost certain to show improvement. +5.63
NEW BET GOES AT THE TOP
12.50 Auteuil. Becquarainbow 0.5pts EW 6/1 Bet365. (4 places) Becquarainbow runs here for Francois nicolle, in the betting he is the 2nd choice of the stable, however on form I wouldnt agree. He was giving 12 pounds to prince de Roume when beaten 4 1/2 Lengths in a simular race which has worked out nicely. He is only giving 4 pounds away to him today. Imo this is the best form in the race. The revised terms should see him reversing places and being involved at the business end of the race. +0.1
2.15 nantes. Happy monarch 1pt win. 2/1 bet365
Happy monarch reverts back to hurdles after running up a very strong sequence over fences. Where he beat the likes of fandango, bernardo bellotto and femme d’ Action who are all very solid listed performers. He receives 14 pounds from forclaz here and imo happy monarch should take all the beating. -1
1.15 Tipperary. KATIBA 0.5 pts EW @ 14/1 bet365. I’m willing to take a chance on KATIBA here, it’s a considerable drop in quality to what she has been racing against, she races here off a mark of 90, she has slowly dropped down from a peak of 98, and what interests me is that the races in which she has dropped have been over further, when she showed her best form she was getting headed in the closing stages over 1m2. So it was a surprise to me, to see dermot weld step her up in trip, which saw her not seeing out her races and has resulted in the mark she has now. She drops down to 1m1 here, if she still has the ability that she looked to have in her earlier career THIS IS HER TRIP. If she is good enough she will be involved. And I’m willing to take a chance at a nice price. -1
2.45 newmarket. TEREBELLUM 11/2 4 (places) 1pt EW. PP/sky
I think there may be an opportunity here for her to make the running and kick for home early. there is an abundance of hold up horses behind that will be coming at her, but if james doyle manages to set the fractions right, she sees out the trip well and may last hime. she has ran consistentently well at a high level and i expect her to turn up and rubber race here., despite Nazzeef beating her prior, nazeef hasn’t showed the same consistency and is best watched. In conclusio i will be dissapointed if terabellum is out the 4 here. With her having a live win chance. -2
Lingfield 2.1. NAT LOVE 0.5 pts EW at 6/1.
Nat love ran at thirsk 3 starts ago over a mile I’m a class 6, going close behind chalet which has worked out pretty decent form, with the winner going in again subsequently. He hasn’t really improved on that in 2 outings over 7f in class 5 events However looked as if a step back up in trip would help. He drops back onto class 6 company back up in trip to the mile off just 2 pounds higher than going close at chelmsford. Priced at 6/1 here. He should have a decent chance of going close here. +0.1
galway 5.15 diamond turf 7/1 0.5pts EW bet365 diamond turf hasn’t managed to win in 2 years, however has ran in some good races over hurdles. In His 1st starts over fences he ran over 2m5 which was too far. Since then he has dropped down in trip to today’s trip over 2m2, Where he has been narrowly beaten on his last 2 starts by horses that have managed to run up minor winning sequences. For his 1st handicap run, He has gone up slightly in the handicap by 3 pounds, however he is decent value for this. I’d be hopeful that he can pick up where he left off and can go close here today. -1
2.05 navan ivabatt 11/2 bet365. 0.5 pts EW Despite his long odds on all 3 starts. His form is very strong. He showed his 2nd start to be no fluke, by finishing a close enough 4th of 4th behind lipzinner. he has yet to go close to winning however he has had quality all around him. This assignment is far easier than the task he has had on his last 2 starts. -1
1.15 Ffos lass TRUCKERS PASS 1pt win 2/1 betvictor.
Truckers pass ran well in a ptp finishing a close 2nd before being purchased at the sales for £180,000. On his debut under rules he was narrowly beaten in a bumper by soaring glory who is highly regarded, then went on to find one to good again in his next start. However he wasnt a typical compact bumper horse and Obstacles should be the making of him, he jumped well in his ptp so there should be no issue in that department. Today’s race doesn’t look that deep on paper, and looks a fair opportunity for him to get off the mark over the minimum trip. Before possibly stepping up in distance at a later date. -1
3.00 newmarket. HAPPY POWER 5/1 0.5 pts EW. Happy power has always ran consistently well in group races. He won readily 2 starts ago and followed up nicely last time with snazzy jazzy behind.
He ran well behind limato on his last visit to the track. And more positive tactics seem to have been the key since then. He stays out the trip well so im hoping they continue to keep him up on the pace, with pogo potentially making the running, and make use of his stamina at the trip. +3
Chepstow 2.10 LANGER DAN 0.5 pts EW 6/1 (hills) I backed him for the fred winter where he ran a very solid race in defeat. He is 3 pounds worse off with blacko here who went off fav for that race. But I think the 3 pounds is fair for the experience of running well in a similar yet more competative race. he is up close to the top of the weights but I do see him as the best horse in the race right now. He should go well here. -1
3.35 newmarket. PRETTY GORGEOUS
1pt EW 7/2 skybet (4 places)
I like her alot. Her and shale have traded finishing positions of late, and both bring strong form to the table. Pretty gorgeous travels well through her races and possesses plenty of tactical speed, the ground conditions here are in her favour. she possesses the ability to win this however imo she needs holding on to for a shade longer before making her challenge. That could be the difference between losing and placing here. +4.2
York 2.00 BEN MACDUI 0.5 pts EW 6/1 sky/hills. Imo ben macdui has the best form in the book, he ran on well to win his maiden before a fine 2nd place finish in the molecombe behind steel bull. He was then beaten in a strong race at york, the 6th has followed up twice since, and the 7th placed horse Politics had previously finished 1 3/4 L behind regional when doing all his best work late. This was his 2nd run since then and I believe that he had improved in that time, which imo leaves BEN MACDUI infront of regional here. Our selection may attempt to make all, if headed he shows a willing attitude which should bode well for the step up to 6f today. I will be hoping that he is involved at the business end of the race here. -1
2.20 new market. ONE RULER
9/2 0.5 pts EW 888 bet.
He has been very solid and has some nice form relative this race, 3rd last time wasnt good enough, however in context to here, that effort may be good enough for victory. I would like to think he can build on from that, he may have an easier time being able to dictate affairs. He should ho close here. +3
2.55 CHINDT 4/1 william hill 0.5pts EW. He stays on very strongly in his races, his form has worked out very nicely. This is an extremely strong race, however the staying power which he has shown, should bring him into the races in the closing stages, where he may stay on best of all to get up kn the shadow of the post. -1
Curragh 2.10 PREAMBLE 0.5pts EW 13/2 hills. He ran well on debut before following up that promise with any authoritative win last time out, he is progressive, the form of his win was pretty well, with colfer kay recently going down narrowly in a decent maiden. This is undoubatbly a step up in class. One which i believe he is capable of taking. The others have a higher level of form, however are largely exposed imo, they are running to a level so far, of which i believe preamble is capable of achieving. Hopefully he goes well here. -1
Goodwood 2.55 ONASSIS 0.5pts EW 9/2 William hill. There are some progressive fillies in the field, however onassis sets the bench mark to aim at. She has by far and away the best form in the book going into this, there should be pace on here, which will help as she stays out the trip very well. I would be very hopeful that she goes close here. She has a favourites chance of doing so. +2.7
1.00 Auteuil. BALADIN DE MESC
1pt win 9/2 bet365.
He has the best form of these over hurdles, being in and around the classy magneto. When 11L infront of kapking who also runs here today. BALADIN de MESC did fall on his chase debut, so there are risks attached, however in that races he was going off at 6/4 favourite to beat premier vert, who is very closely matched to today’s fav lossange vert. So the 9/2 for today’s slightly more difficult task appeals comparatively. Hopefully he has a clear round, then he should be on the premises at the business end of the race. -1
1.40 Windsor DREAM WITH ME 0.5pts EW 5/1 sky bet /888 sport.
He has been disappointing However has ran in better races. He can be slowly away, so hopeful he breaks well today as this is his 1st real opportunity. He is facing lesser horses here, and has dropped down the handicap, he finished well infront of the horse that is directly above him in both the handicap rating and the betting market. I see no reason why this should be reversed as the race she did win at the track was very weak. Dream with me should find this race easier to travel into, he stays well, so imo aslong as he breaks well, more forward tactics should benefit him. The head gear is on, so If he is going to win one. For a horse that cost 700,000 This is it. +0.2
MACHIOS 0.5pts EW 11/2 skybet
IN THE SAME RACE. Also at the top of the weights machios, pulled hard but stayed on well over course and distance last time, the 2nd has won since. The winner ran a brilliant race upped to class 3 next time, and the 4th went very close next time also in a class 3 event, therefore his 3.5L beating in the class 5 looks strong, we are going in double handed looking for a win AND a place. +0.1
DARSI IN THE PARK 0.5pts EW 7/1 (hills)
he ran in 3 ptps, on his 1st he was coming to win and fell at the last.
On her 2nd he was well held by the ill fated passageway however infront of some fair horses, before coming down again.
On his 3rd he duly obliged.
It has taken time, but he is showing the promise of his ptp’s over hurdles. he was won well in a modest event. Before running just as well when beaten in a decent class 3 event.
he has shown to be as good over hurdles as any of these, and his form to my eye, seems to be on a progressive line, with still something to give.
The switch to fences may allow him to carry on, in an upward curve, he needs a clear round, and if he manages to do so, he should be very much coming on the scene at the end of the race. With a bit of luck, for victory.
GOLDEN JEWEL 2.15 punchestown
1pt EW at 8/1 skybet (4places)
I have been waiting patiently for golden jewel to recieve an entry, his run 2 starts ago was a huge step up and showed promise. However his run next time screamed it, he had a horrendous passage and was a ridiculously unlucky loser in a very competitive handicap hurdle, the way he came home there showed that a step up to 2 and a half miles should be no issue at all. I dont mind him going up 4 pounds, as he was on a steep upwards curve.
However My only worry is that he may need this run, and he may be using it to straighten him up for a bigger pot. However I cant not back him. So anyone who has a tracker. Pop him in. If it’s not today, apologies. but you will make your money on him. SPEND 3 MINUTES OF YOUR TIME WATCHING HUS LAST RUN. He had to switch around the whole field just before the final flight when coming to WIN up the rail. -2https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2020-02-01/leopardstown/561896/ladbrokes-hurdle-extended-handicap-hurdle-0-150-grade-b
Finishing Total Stakes April 1. Staked 417pts +130.21pts.
+£2,604.20 to a £20 stake
Members Daily Bets With Post Race Analysis
Total Stakes up to 17th Oct. Staked 564.25pts +201.51pts.
+£4,050.20 to a £20 stake
Irish envoi 15/2 0.25 pts EW bet365
Katie tay 0.25pts EW 6/1 PP (4 places)
There are a good few in here with a future entry for the Goffs land-rover bumper, so there could be a smart one in here, and I have personally shortened the race to them.
Sweet magic is related to coin basket who was a good 2nd in a ptp before joining Milton Harris.
Katie Tay cost €35,000 and is related to March Glen who is yet to run for Denis Gérard hogan. While she is the only entry in the Goffs land-rover for emmet mullins, with his sole entry finishing a good 4th there last season.
Sycamore gray cost just €7,000 with the trainer looking to have block entered in the Goffs land-rover.
Irish envoy cost €42,000 and is related to 3 horses yet to reach a rating of near 100. However he has a notable jockey booking and is from the family of smart hurdler The Illiad.
Ideal de ciergues is owned by connections who are 0-11 this season, with the trainer looking to have block entered in the Goffs land-rover.
Everystep oftheway €36,000 is related to debut bumper winner major Robinson who later joined David pipe.
5.40 Navan Paris lights 0.25pts EW 11/2 bet365. 9/2 various.
Jim bolger has Wexford native entered up in absolutely everything, and historically, he wouldn’t have entered up any horse rated under 90 for all of the English and Irish Guineas, the gladness stakes, and the Irish Derby
His stablemate Boundless ocean who holds the same entries was only beaten very narrowly by a potentially very useful £420,000 colt on Saturday with the 3rd also holding a group 3 entry.
Point gelibrand has some good form and has been tried highly, he has an Irish Guineas and Derby entry, moony beams has ran in to some nice types, Paris light cost £650,000 and has some smart form with the forementioned Boundless ocean, as well as the smart amortentia, while he should appreciate the step up in trip.
Sun King may well attempt to make all, has some nice form and could be a useful middle distance horse later this season.
I would be be thinking that Jim Bolger hasnt block entered up wexford native for all, just for the fun of it, I believe he is likely to be a smart debutant, however since writing this, and not checking the odds again whilst working on the chelt review, he has been hammered, and I will be more on the ball in that regard shortly. So he is to be respected, while the form of Paris lights, and the improvement expected for the step up in trip, would see him capable of going close here, and therfore a very small EW chance will be taken.
Kerless Del Roc 0.25 pts EW 16/1 (4P hills)
12.20 Snapper St Clair 0.25 pts EW 22/1
2.10 Pine Hurst 0.5 pts EW 4/1 (PP 5P)
3.55 Shahryar 0.25 pts EW 9/2 (Sky 5P)
Kerless Del Roc is an Arabian horse that I have been following for some time, and had in mind in relation to this race.
Despite his form not showing up absolutely anywhere, his race record Is solid.
4 Wins (57%) – 1 Place (71%) – 7 starts
Imo in this race you want to be on the front end, horses like the old boy Braq are going to come flying late, but if the fractions are timed right by Kerless Del Roc rather than setting the race up, then that may well be too late for Braqq, Kerless Del Roc will be bang up on the pace, although his form is all at Al ain, he has had a prep at Meydan and went particularly well. His overall time of 02:09.00 flat, while left to coast home for the last 200M, would have won every renewal ever ran of this race. That is not to be taken literal, and its all down to the man on top, to run the same fractions. However it was no fluke as the very smart Rajeh tried to go with him, and paid the price in dropping back to 3rd on the run in. Deryan is a solid horse who should travel in to the race very nicely from a very poor draw, he will take your eye, as well as the commentators. he finds very little off the bridle, so will need to be timed to perfection to actually win, but I’ll be suprsied if he isn’t able to get up there and travelling like a dream turning in, therefore he may likely go very short in running for those who may not have done their homework and know the horse. First class has some nice french form with the very smart Abbes, while The 2 favs are very classy, and deserve to be where they are in the market. They are a danger to all, rich lyk me is very flashy on the bridle, he will travel very nicely, and has plenty of tactical pace. Hadi carerre will travel well enough and should find more off the bridle in the finish. It just depends if they are too busy looking at each other, rather than keeping an eye out for Kerless Del Roc who hopefully may still have something left kicking for home.
beforehand, I have wrote out a look at the U.S and Japanese raiders at dubai world cup night.
I’m very much looking at what is and will be overpriced of the U.S and Japanese contingent, rather than the obvious Charlie appleby fav with leading claims that may win ..
12.20 snapper sinclair has ran at a high level, and will stay all the way to the line, he ran on well for 4th in this race last season, and is arguably in better form compared to his form figures, as he has since been tried highly. He is a tough and genuine horse, the question mark is whether the race falls in to his lap to be able to win. He has EW claims and he may drift.
12.55 manobo should win. The 2 Japanese raiders look capable of outrunning their odds. Stay foolish has kept very good company, you could argue that he wasn’t shown respect from the front last time at Riyadh so he was slightly flattered by the winning margin, though he had been knocking on the door over a shorter trip in very competitive races. Veloce oro is no mug, he won the grateful stakes, and has been knocking on the door I’m better much more competative races.
1.25 again the top of the market looks strong. Casa Creed is not a traditional US horse in terms of bags of early pace and catch me if you can. He should be midfield, and finds off the bridle. He’s tough, and this occasion should suit him. He has EW claims and may drift.
2.10 Pinehurst will have to successfully stretch out to 1,900 meters, the longest race of his career to date. While the distance could arguably present a challenge for Pinehurst, who finished fifth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the often speed-favoring surface at Meydan may prove to his liking and the 4/1 looks very fair, his price will absolutely not drift. Besides offering a lucrative purse, the UAE Derby also awards 170 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10). Pinehurst trained by Bob Baffert is not eligible to recieve any points to horses he trains. Pinehurst looks the US number 1 and is to be highly respected. Get Back Goldie, who won a conditions race at Meydan last month, Doug O’Neill trains and he’s to be respected. Gilded Age will make his first start since finishing third in last month’s Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. The son of Medalia d’Oro is trained by Bill Mott, has had a good prep for this in terms of race fitness with more left to work on, hes a nice horse and he could arguably be decent EW value on the day, with pinehurst set to be very popular in the win market.
2.45 Dr schivel is the most likely winner, he looks the pace here he may make all and win as he did in the santa Anita sprint. Drain the clock may try to track and pounc late if he can, which is a fair ask. Red Lezele has some strong Japanese form over further, always finishes the race strongly in Japan, as also in this race last year, so if your looking at one to follow home the US pace of Dr Schivel for a potential forecast or exotics etc…
3.20 schnell meister is a nice horse from Japan, I couldn’t back him at the odds, but it should be an interesting watch to see if his form translates from his 3rd in the Japanese Derby, and his graded wins either side. Colonel Liam looks pretty solid, his US form is good, he has had an ideal prep for this, with a win at gulfstream recently so there will be no excuses if he is not involved.
3.55 This could may be a race for Japan to go particularlywell in.. and in no absolute order, as theyre all smart.. Shahryar, The Japanese Derby winner is in here, who also ran a stormer in the Japan Cup last time. He’s a nice horse and he looks capable. I would say that the other Japanese raiders are absolutely no mugs, and they have a strong hand here. Authority will go well and be bang there turning in, Glory Vase travelled and won the Hong Kong vase, after finishing a strong 2nd behind the extremely smart Loves only you.
While Stella Voloce Kobe Shimbun Hai won the Kobe Shimbun Hai beating the fav here, whilst also finishing just behind the very smart Chrono Genasis in the Arima Kinen.
4 30 life is good routed the pegasus, they didn’t give him a soft lead, they just couldn’t go with him. The question mark was his stamina, and he answered that, that is arguably still the question question mark here with a little more emphasis on stamina. He is tough to beat.
Hot rod Charlie is rock solid, he has had a nu e prep, his stamina is assured, and any drift eould wee him as an ew bet to nothing.. whilst he is also one for forecasts and exotics.
3.00 kempton Russian ruler 0.25 pts EW 14/1 hills/ betfred/coral….
He was keen and fresh on debut, and it did look like he was ridden with restraint to try and make a ballymore horse out of him. Now he may be allowed to get on with it here, he is no mug, and he could well be capable of being involved here.
3.08 fairyhouse irascible 0.25 pts EW 7/1 PP/ Betfred (5 places)
Ardhillll needs a rise in the weights, so he will be trying to win, however I’m willing to take a very small chance on irascible, he is entered in multiple handicaps at chelt, and wouldn’t want to be showing something here. His form from last season, would see him in with a decent shout, should they be atleast allowing him to run to most of his ability.
4.10 Ascot Grosvenor Court 0.25 pts EW 20/1 sky betfred (5places)
In other races, it’s debatable who will be trying, but there will be no excuses with this lad. He has a good profile and drops down in to handicap company for the first time, as well as stepping up in trip to 3 miles for the first time. His novice form is reasonable, and a mark of 119 would look quite lenient to me. So if he puts it all together over this test of stamina that would look to suit him, despite odds of 20/1, he would look capable.
my focus is 100% on chelt atm, however I will cover the weekends in here prior to chelt.
3.35 Newbury. Knappers Hill 0.5 pts EW 8/1 Hills (5 places)
Paul hasn’t been in great form, but there will be no excuses here. Knappers Hill would just about have the pick of the novice form here, with his run last time being a step up. I feel that he should have improved for the experience and comes in here off a fair looking mark of 135. He should be very competitive here, in an open looking race.
Leopardstown sat 1.05 grand jury 9/2 0.25 pts EW betfred (3 places)
Leopardstown Sunday 12 45. Lunar display 14/1 0.5 pts EW PP (5 places)
leopardstown 1.20 Capodanno 0.25 pts EW 10/1 PP
Leopardstown 4.10 Cask mate 7/1 0.25pts EW b365 (6 places)
Drf Race card Day 1. I am doing this early, and will update with any bets…. on the morning each day…
Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novice H’dle (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €150,000 2m 6f 45yds 10 entered)
Minella crooner is a nice horse, that I have the feeling could plausibly be buried here and go to the Martin Pipe. I feel he was somewhat flattered in his race against Journeywithme, as the latter had a battle on with kilkruit a fair way out, which lead to minella crooner picking up the pieces of kilkruit. I feel that the form of that race, is the strongest on offer, and would make journeywithme the one to beat here. I do like JWM I think he’s a ballymore horse with solid claims. There is a race next week that City Island won on route to the ballymore, so as I’m writing this, and with grand jury in the entries here, I’d be cautious of backing him for this, before decs.
Eric Bloodaxe is one that I think his form is poor, and although this isn’t the greatest race, I can see him being dispatched without too much issue. I can’t see the claims with him, for those that have backed him for the Albert Bartlett.
Whatdeawant will appreciate the step up in trip, and he still wants further, however his ownership would look to dictate that the ballymore is where he will probably go. himself, Minella cocooner, and bronn who will appreciate the step up in trip, will have it all to do here.
Grand jury shaped like he wouldn’t want the Albert bartlett trip to me, he possesses some tactical pace, and although he has credentials here, he would be particularly interesting down the line dropping down in trip and grade, in to handicap company.
Hollow games you could argue suffered some misfortune in running last time, he will definitely appreciate the step up in trip here, and further more, down the line. He’s no superstar, but he’s a solid, Hardy horse that jumps well. Those that have read the weeks ahead would know that iv always preferred Ginto for the bartlett, from when he was 66/1, all the way up to now. The reason I don’t like Ginto for the bally, is that he has a tendency to jump to his right when ridden at pace, this would be less prominent in the Albert bartlett, as it would be ridden at a lesser tempo. He looks a worthy fav for the race to me. The reason that Hollow games could potentially beat him in a bartlett, and has seen him look a solid bet, is his improvement expected for the step up in trip, and his jumping. On a left handed track, over 3 miles, he’d have his chance of beating Ginto, should they both line up in the bartlett. He will also have his chance here, but whatever he does, the step up to 3m, should be the one to see him at his best.
In summary, journeywithme would imo be the best horse of those entered here, a word of caution, that he won’t necessarily be declared on the day, with a suitable race the following week. Should he not run, then hollow games could pick up the pieces, and improve on from this, when he gets the full 3 miles.
Racing TV ???12 Per Month Juvenile H’dle (Grade 1) (4yo of €125,000 2m 9 entered)
Fil dor would look the one to beat for now, he’s come to gordon already well able to jump, with plenty of experience from a yard in France that starts them very early.. now I’d be expecting him to potentially win this, though with every run, the opposition are catching him up very fast.. so by the time the spring festivals come, I can see him being beaten down the line.
Icare Allen has a bumper run in france where he was impressive, he was green on his hurdles debut, and will definitely come forward from that. He will need to, as he has a tall order here. He’s an interesting proposition.
Vauban arguably has the form to win to win this, though he is going to improve for the experience of this race, and what ever he does here, expect him to improve upon. If he jumped the last better against pied piper, he probably would have won, due to what he found off the bridle. Pied piper has improved from that run, and looks very smart, so you can’t take it literally, but it’s solid form.
In summary Fil Dor has beaten very little imo, and it would be no suprise if vauban managed to beat him, however in this very race, I would give him the edge on experience, and he should be able to stay on well, and get the job done. Down the line, that could be a different matter, and I personally think he has far less improvement in him going forward. Imo pied piper looks the one to beat in the Triumph, it will be interesting to see how much icare Allen and vauban, improve from there first starts, and off the back of this.
Ward Solicitors Irish Arkle Novice S’ch (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €150,000 2m 1f 43yds 7 entered)
Blue Lord heads the betting and very arguably the standard of this race by a tight thread..he has jumped well and travelled well to date, though his jumping has never been under pressure or has he had a significant rival to test him. I’d be taking him on here for sure.
Saint Sam is a decent horse, he beat the same horse that blue lord did previously, in a pretty simular manner and although he’s not for me, there wouldn’t look a huge deal between him and the market leader.
Riviere D’etel already had the experience of the fixed brush hurdles in France, and has built up some further valuable experience over Fences this season, That experience is to her advantage here, she jumps very well, travels very well, and receives a nice bit of weight. There’s going to be a point where the others will catch up, and that may or may not be here.
Haut en couleurs, I have put him up for the arkle at 33s, and it wasn’t for a bit of fun. I have always known of him from his time at Gabriel Leenders, and he’s a smart horse. He jumps to his left which shouldn’t be too much of an issue at chelt, he’s going to improve from his debut run, and he’s going to improve off the back of this.. by the time chelt comes around, I’d be hoping that he’s the best of this bunch here, but there won’t be excuses right now, and id want to be seeing a good bit from here, as the arkle may be a shade tougher, with Alan Kings Edwardstone imo looking to be the one to beat. Which I think we all know would have been appreciate it.
Paddy Power I’d Love A Can H’cap H’dle (Grade B) (4yo+ of €100,000 3m 30 entered)
If you’ve backed dunboyne for the pertemps, then you wouldn’t want him to be confirmed to run here.. I’m still weary of him, and I’m not certain how he will back last times run up.. so I’d keep your eyes open for the qualifiers left at Chepstow, and in Ireland.
Right place right time has a mark 12 pounds lower in Ireland than in the UK, if he got in here, you could see him being competitive. Likewise capilano Bridge is 8 pounds lower, and he has an outside squeak.
Enjoy Dallen and farclas at face value, could be having a prep for a big pot over fences…though farclas, even off top weight, could go very well, if you knew he was Trying
Panda boy is very obvious, though he’s up 8 pounds for his win last time, when a load of them weren’t trying, so I don’t think he’s massively well in here myself, and I’d be taking him on.
Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €250,000 3m 61yds 9 entered)
Frodon: Paul would have him trained for his life here, and see this race as his sole target, he has solid claims and should go well
Asterion forlonge wouldn’t have been far way at all in the King George, if this was right handed, I would be all over him here. Though you’d have to watch him, and let him win, if he does.. as I’m not sure how markedly he will jump right.
Kemboy he always goes well here, and he will be on the scene.
Minella Indo I couldn’t touch him myself, you can never take away his gold cup from him, or the champion chase from PTKO, however they’re both looked at as they will come alive in the spring… I’m not too sure myself.
Janidil he ran well at christmas at face value, amd he will probably be popular in the market, should he be declared here.
Paddy Power H’cap S’chase (Grade B) (5yo+ of €100,000 2m 1f 43yds 12 entered)
Exit poll and fan de blues both look on tough marks, for the price that they are though you would say that they will be trying.
Mt leinster looks to be on a very handy mark, and looks to have been laid out for this. Although he’s fav, he should go well here.
Goffs Future Stars (C&G) INH Flat Race (Grade 2) (4-7yo of €100,000 2m 7 entered)
Itswhatunitesus looked smart when winning on debut, his form has substance, and he Is absolutely no mug.
The big doyen has looked visually impressive last time, I think he’s beaten little, and despite the hype, he has it all to do imo.
Sandor Clegane looked smart on debut, he looks a nice prospect that will be far from disgraced.
You would expect Facile vega to win this. From what I know, and its the reason why I mentioned him early to anyone who asked who’s the most likely to put it up to American Mike, Facile vega won a schooling bumper at the curragh very early in the season, which included the likes of Redemption Day. Though I’d say the latter has come on considerably, and suprised them too, as he was mightily impressive at christmas.
Facile vega has the strongest form of anything in the champion bumper market, and he may well enhance that further here, which will make him a worthy fav for chelt on all known form.. visually I was more impressed with both American Mike, and Redemption day, but neither are in this field, so he should win here.. and become the one to beat on form. Though it must be said that itsswhatunitesus and sandor clegane, are absolutely no mugs, so it may be in a workmanlike manner visually.
Day 2 DRF
ISF EBF Paddy Mullins (Mares) H’cap Hdle (Grade B) (4yo+ of €100,000 2m 1f 156yds 20 entered)
Finest evermore is one I’d expect that a fair few would have on the list for the Coral Cup, she would look to be capable of a fair bit of improvement when she does go up in trip.. whether that’s in the mares hurdle, or handicap company.
Lunar display has just ran, and IF she was to back up quickly, I would be all over her here.
Party Central is obviously on a very handy mark, though her price is very short..
Global equity went close in this off a very simular mark last season..she hasn’t taken to fences all that well, and she would have a legit chance here
Ladbrokes Novice S’chase (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €150,000 2m 5f 61yds 13 entered)
This would be all about gallopin des Champs who is likely to attempt to make all at pace, run out a ready winner and go to what was the JLT
Ladbrokes Dublin S’chase (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €150,000 2m 1f 43yds 8 entered)
Chacun pour soi is just about the one to beat here… though I would absolutely not be taking short prices about him.
Greaneteen will be trained as if this is his champion chase.. he holds very valid claims..
Captain Guinness will travel very well, he is starting to mature and atleast find something off the bridle. He has valid claims here.
Bulmers Secret Leopardstown H’cap Schase (Grade A) (5yo+ of €125,000 2m 5f 61yds 24 entered)
This is a very tough race and not one that I would particularly want to be involved in. If busselton was to run, he is on a handy mark and has a big pot in him. Should he be trying, he would hold very valid claims.
Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion H’dle (Grade 1) (4yo+ of €200,000 2m 6 entered)
This should be straight forward enough for Honeysuckle… and she should be winning this.
If Appreciate It was to run, he is very Interesting, and a very smart horse. This would be a tough seasonal debut though.
Zanahiyr would have claims of going well here. If I knew that he was going to be ridden more patiently in the champion hurdle, rather than his recent tactics, then he would be a decent EW proposition.
Echoes in rain I have put up for the County at 20/1. She won’t be winning this, but it will be a lovely prep for the County hurdle.
Tattersalls Ireland Novice H’dle (Grade 1) (5yo+ of €150,000 2m 12 entered)
Watch house cross looks a decent horse, he may be capable of mixing it with the horses that have ran in Graded company to date.
Imo this would look all about the horses yet to run in Graded company, sir Gerhard would have Grade 1 chelt aspirations and he would want to be winning this to go JT fav for the likes of the supreme. El Fabiolo was very impressive on his debut, ran well in the prestigious Prix finot in France, and could be absolutely anything.
Liffey H’cap H’dle (Grade B) (4yo+ of €125,000 2m 38 entered)
Cask mate looks very nicely handicapped and would be very capable here.
Top bandit has been slaughtered by the uk handicapper, and he would be off anyone’s list for the County. This could be his county hurdle, his irish mark is fair, and you’d certainly think he would be trying here.
Autumn evening is still pretty fairly handicapped, and can go well here.
Coolmore NH Sires EBF (M) INH Flat Race (Grade 2) (4-7yo of €100,000 2m 17 entered)
Pink in the park was visually impressive and she may be the one to beat here. I wouldn’t want to be taking the short prices.
Harmonya maker has some strong form, should she run here she will have very valid claims.
12.00 fairyhouse Grand Paradis. 13/2 0.25 pts EW 365.
The Stakes are so small because I have no idea if he will be trying here… he is very capable, but whether that will be tomorrow… or a hunt around in close proximity, for another day, time will tell. Frontal assault would look to want further. And the top 2 in the market will definitely be trying here, so they are priced accordingly.
2.22 pau Intox 1.5 pts cover bet 11/4 bet365 3 places.. (money back if 2nd or 3rd)
I have waited as long as I possibly can.. so 45 mins beforehand is hopefully OK… He jumped and travelled well on his hurdles debut in a stronger race, I know that he is well regarded at home. I would be expecting him to improve from his initial effort, which he will need to.. to potentially be involved at the business end of this race.
The plan would be for me to put up a horse at PAU. Should INTOX drift accordingly in the 2.22PM.
2.08 taunton Fortunes melody 13/2 0.25 Pts win
Her mark is down to 120, and hopefully briony gets a tune out of her, as I feel her style will suit the horse.
I personally think she is a winner in waiting over a stiff 2 miles with a forceful ride from the front.
This is 2m5, so not as straight forward, though I’m willing to give her her chance.
2.35 Haydock Remastered. 1pt EW 4/1 Hills.
He’s on a very handy mark, and in other ownership he’d possibly not try here, tick over, and go the the Ultima with a big chance. However the owner wants him trying for his life here, as he loves a gold cup runner. So he’d have a fair chance off his mark. Alnadam is probably the aforementioned horse of fishing for a mark, and hoping there’s a bit of cut in the ground for the Ultima.
Lingfield 3.35 Gowel Road 0.25 pts EW 11/1 Hills (5 places)
You could argue that he is possibly slightly more effective over 2 and a half now rather than 2m.. and he’s retaining race fitness for q shit at the Coral Cup…
however this is a very big pot, and we’ll worth targeting and he is capable in this opposition.
4.10 Exeter pimlico point. 0.5 pts EW PP Hills
He may be better later over obstacles, He boasts a strong pedigree being out of a Grade 1 winning mare and from the family of module, and i did like his attitude in his ptp, and he found off the bridle. That experience may help him here, in a weak enough race.
Kitaway is well bred and a relative to a few nice horses with Guillame Macaire, including Politikar who ran Device close a couple of times around Auteuil, I expected him to open up a bigger price.m, and along with the fav, they would look to be the pair to beat.
2.40 kempton Gelino Bello 1pt EW 15/2 william hill. (6 places)
He has been beaten fair and square by a very useful horse the last twice, and I would say that this is his best trip for the moment, rather than 3 miles.
He is unexposed and drops in to handicap company, and he should be involved in the finish here off a mark of 138 which looks very fair.
I feel that his form is decent, and it may be franked earlier on the card with Ree Okka.
2.45 Ludlow. Phantom Getaway 0.25 pts EW sky/hills/PP…
Anything decent will be having their vaccinations atm, so we’re struggling on quality.
Anyway, phantom Getaway was dissapointing in his bumper at face value. However I would say that it will work out to be a half decent race.
Prior to this, on his pt debut, He made what at the time appeared to be a costly mistake three from home at Tipperary, however he did make amends on his next start at Lisronagh. Positioned in mid-field he responded gamely to pressure as he steadily moved closer among the chasing group who trailed a runaway leader.
Despite Lisronagh being a relatively sharp track, he hit top gear as he came through rivals in the home straight and ultimately won going away quite cosily at the line, looking like a stayer.
He is one that should come into his own at galloping tracks under rules. The longer trip here and a set of obstacles infront of him, would be much more his bag, and in what doesn’t look the strongest of novice hurdles, he could well show improvement, to be involved at the finish here.
2.40 Wincanton Blairgowrie 0.5 pts EW 5/1 sky
He has always looked like he wants a trip from the days of running in bumpers, this is a drop in to handicap company in a race which would look to require more stamina. Others around him have gone well in handicap company, and Off a mark of 112 he should be competitive.
2.17 Cagnes sur-mer
Guepard du berlais 10/1 0.25pts EW 365
Now this isn’t partuclalry easy as it’s a competitive race, and the fav Helsinki no limit is on 4 pounds better terms with desgarbado, and they are arguably the pair to beat here. What I would say is that Guepard du berlais has dropped 2 pounds, and prior to his last couple of runs, he’d have come in here as fav.
He was stone last, detached from the field and ran on for 10th.
If you just watch back that race, then this looks an awful bet, however on prior form, I’d be happy to rule that effort out.
Either he’s done for the season, or that was all wrong. At 10/1, I’m willing to take a small chance, and find out.
2.00 Cheltenham funambule sivola 0.25 pts EW 7/1 bet365.
He looks a decent EW bet here I like his profile he ran a fine race against shiskin, and also on his seasonal debut, he is on a a fair mark, is unexposed and should go well here
3.50 chelt beyond boundaries 0.25pts EW 13/2 Hills
He is very intersting, he cost £280,000 at the sales, balding has previous with supasundae, and I’d be taking a chance that way with a very generous looking 13/2 with William Hill, I’d also say, he might be worth adding ti the champion bumper market, on the off chance.
3.25 warrick. LIindaka 0.5 pts EW 9/2 sky/ hills
I watched him in his ptp and he may well have won but for coming down at the last, if he was beaten he’d have been outstayed by the strong market fav anyway. Win or lose, he’d have been well clear of enda bolgers the old oak tree, who was well fancied.
There are no obstacles here. The owner Mr stennet paid a good few quid for stellar magic when he won his ptp, as well as 100k for celebre D’allen who may have also won before falling at the last, so he’s not afraid to roll the dice on a decent one, and hopefully a decent one is what he has found here.
12.45 Taunton Irish hill 7/4 1 pt win various….
the below does not apply,
Irish point has some fine AQPS form and won A G1 on his last start, and in any other top yard, I’d say hes a Triumph Hurdle horse. .
Favorite for the race after 2 fine efforts and giving 4kgs away here, Irish Point (Joshua Tree) won the Prix Jacques de Vienne (Gr1), against a very tenacious He is French (Karaktar).
Irish point gained his advantage with a hundred yards to go, and left his rivals behind, in a good manner.
Irish point was purchased for quite the fee privately, and has made his way from France on the 8th of December, he could be one to note for the Triumph hurdle.
“He really does it in good style. He is a very good horse, he confirms all the good things about him. I am a little moved… I would like to thank my entire team for their work, as well as my wife, Maud, who also works for us on a daily basis. I congratulate them all! Irish Point jumps really well, he is certainly the best jumper in the team. He has everything to make a good Auteuil horse: he is cold and goes in heavy terrain. He’s going to spend the winter warm at home, and we’ll certainly see him again next year at Auteuil. I had the chance to work for very good professionals, like Guillaume Macaire and Willie Mullins. I work both calmly and rigorously because I find it very important. I live in Tiercé, near Angers, with a good fifteen horses. ” See you at Auteuil in 2022 … if it is not sold! It was also a first Group victory for the owners of Irish Point, “Hervé d’Armaillé kindly praised his mother, Burkina (Fragrant Mix), for her racing career. She won on the flat and over jumps, before experiencing a health problem. We kept him at breeding, and Irish Point is his first product! This is a good omen. Irish Point jumps very well and will be directed towards the obstacles. But it’s not impossible that we get a phone call from the English or the Irish … “
11.20 pau Lucky net love 0.5pts EW 11/2 bet365.
He is going to enjoy the step up in trip here over the cross county discipline, in a race where the fav disappointed on seasonal debut, and diddnt get home over a shorter trip.
Lucky net love won’t lack for stamina, he goes well around pau, and I belive he can come forward from his seasonal opener. I will be disspointed should he not come in the first 3 here, and absolutely not suprised, should he win.
12.00 leopardstown .
Life In the Park 6/1 0.5pts EW. 365
Secret she keeps 12/1 0.25pts EW 365
Life in the park fell in his ptp when well clear at the last, and diddnt jump great on hurdles debut. He has an engine, and he is going to improve with experience.
Henry had another ptp winner in here, where her form has worked out well, it is for connections that Rachel could well have rode for, with the weight no issue. Therefore I would have to think that she also believes that life in the park has valid claims here.
If He manages to put it together today, he should go well.
1.05 Chepstow Paint the dream 0.5 pts EW 11/2 hills 4 places.
He ran well last time in a far more competitive handicap, and was only ran out of it late on.
The drop in trip here should strongly suit him, he is not massively well handicapped, though the lesser opposition would see him on fair terms.
Mr coffey 0.5 pts EW 9/2 365 /hills
Sebastopol 0.25 pts EW 9/1 PP..
Sebastopol took a heavy fall last time, though was going well, he has been hard to win with, though has solid claims.
Mr coffey ran a fine race over 2 miles, wherw the winner has followed up since, I liked his run a lot, this step up in trip will suit. Imo he’s the one to beat.
12.53 Wincanton. Fortunes Melody 0.25 pts win 11/1 bet365….
This is going to be real tough introduction to chasing for her, and she could easily pull up, however I am happy with her mark, 3 pounds is taken off by a claim, and she has been crying out for a fence.
If she sets off infront, and attempts to make all, I’ll be happy, and she’d have been given every chance.
12.05 pau. intox 0.5pts EW 5/1 b364
It’s not easy to make a wide opinion on what opposition we have here as its a race for new colts over jumps, so let’s move forward with caution on a horse I have been waiting for, INTOX.
My Blue Ridge is fav and he is a very well bred colt who could be leading the charge for D cottin, he qlso has the munir /souede owned Atalan amongst othersz and Tomorrow’s market before the race will certainly tell us more about the pecking order there.
In Excelsis Deo, ran moderately on the flat despite a good word about him before the race, he could leave that pipe opener behind him, and is much likely more suited to obstacles.
Free Lord of Anjou, represents a Trainer who has made a fine start to the pau meeting, and his horses arent to be ruled out of anything.
Inconito Collonges, Cokytho and Zerkakt all represent yards that are very capable of having a 3yo win on debut, so as before, it’s advisable to use caution in a race targetted by good 3yos to get experience and see what they have.
One good 3yo is INTOX, im lead to believe that he is pretty useful, and should there not be a few future stars in here, which there could well be, then he may be good enough to win
Intox (H3): “This young horse must run once or twice this winter because I want to preserve him. He will be better at 4 years old, but do know that I like him a lot.”
What ever beats him, is worth following onwards, whether he stays in France, or gets sold.
I have attached a list of 3yos, that are the best of the bunch from the same yard, which I had looked into, incase they later moved to the UK as Teahupoo and haut en couleurs did last season.
It may be useful to keep an eye out for their runs in France, but ofcourse, I will be anyway. A couple have ran, and I wanted to see how the initial couple went, before I added this.
Ideale du Livet (F3): “She is a filly who works well, she jumps well, she may lack speed to finish but when on heavy ground, she can go far. A fast track will put her at a disadvantage.”
Ile d’Ouessant (F3): “She needed to start in Nantes and she will have gained experience for Pau. She will have a good entry for fillies who have not raced three times.”
Indiana Conti (F3): “She has just finished run well at Fontainebleau. It has an interesting first race to run on December 12. It is less brilliant now and I expect a good meeting.
“Precious Moment (H3):” he was saved for the meeting. a good colt. He should be able to do well straight away and will be one to watch afterwards. “
Intox (H3): “This young horse must run once or twice this winter because I want to preserve him. He will be better at 4 years old. But do know, that I like him a lot.”
Instit (F3): “shes a very pretty filly. A kind of steamroller. She worked very well for this meeting and I think the layout will suit her perfectly. “
Ipomee Collonges (F3):” She is a well-born filly. Difficult to set up but she is progressing well. She is not very willful but I like her, she may need a race, so I think we have to follow her for later “
Jogo de la Serre (H3): “He is a nice horse, who will like steeplechase and heavy terrain. He has not shown everything yet and can face the best of his generation this winter.”
Le Roselet (H3): “This one, he is a good colt who should start on December 8. He is easy, serious, he is a real racehorse. By his seriousness, he can distinguish himself from his debut. “
Rue des Iris (F3):” Here is a filly who is taking time to adjust to obstacles but she has potential. Shes clearly one of my best for the winter. “
Cloth cap 0.25 pts EW 15/2
Caribean boy 0.25 pts EW 6/1
sky (5 places)
I thought cloth cap ran a fine race in the hennesy despite being beaten by almost 40L, he has subsequently been dropped by 4 pounds in the weights for his efforts
And His current mark of 150 looks reasonable.
Caribbean boy has always been over rated by those who use the clock, however he now looks on a handy mark, and you could argue this has been a plan, with him being held right up and buried out the back, whilst looking like he wants a trip.
His mark of 145 would see him get in to the Kim muir, however first time cheek pieces have been applied here, which indicates that they are trying.
Perhaps he will magically show more toe here, with the handicapper having took the bait and dropped him 7 pounds in his last 2 runs.
12.50 Naas. Brandy Love 13/8 1 pt win 364
There are no prizes for originality here, though hopefully she wins and keeps us ticking over.
She travelled and jumped well in her point to point, and I wouldn’t be worried about the field size, as she should be right up there on the pace.
Willie knows more than me, and has touted that she will want atleast 2 and a half miles over hurdles, I have to say that on everything I have seen to date, I wouldnt agree, I think she is very capable over this trip, and was outstayed in her bumper by grangee and party central.
Her stablemate take tea comes in with a simular form line, looked very useful in a bumper last season, and is unexposed. She is certainly not out of this, although she is the one that gives me the visual impression of wanting further, to be at her very best. I think brandy love has a bit more toe and with her prior jumping experience, imo she will take all the beating here.
2.15 Leicester scipion 0.25ptz EW 10/1 PP
Scipion was 2nd before making £80,000 at the sales, and was value for his 2nd, the winner made 10k less at the sales, and gives a decent look to the form.
The winner of the Cork Ptp in April, Minella Crooner was subsequently an impressive winner on his debut under rules from Having been backed in to 8/13 Favourite by post time, this lad who made £70,000 at the same sale, settled nicely and raced slightly wider under leading amateur Jamie Codd. When asked for his effort 4-furlongs from home, he quickened readily in the yielding ground and was the only horse still travelling on the bridle as they swung for home. Briefly joined by State of Honor at the 2-furlong pole, a decent animal in his own right who had run well previously when 2nd in a Clonmel bumper, Minella Crooner responded well to his riders’ urgings in the closing stages to record a 3-length victory. This was an impressive start to his career, made more so by the final circuit time he produced (1:48.43), which was easily the fastest of the day.
It gives a decent look to the form of Scipion, who’s current connections clearly felt that he was good value for being left in the lead by a thousand sparks 2 out in his ptp, and being beaten just 50 yards from home.
Scipion is a full brother to classic concorde and shantou warrior, who were both rated around the 100 mark, and this lad will need to be a good bit better than that, however he does look it. This race is considerably easier than the Ascot race he is also entered up in, and I’d be hopeful that he can make a promising start over hurdles.
Last time out winner Jetoile looks the one to beat, last quarter stuck at the task extremely well last time, and arguably could be marked up for being on the pace throughout. He lost nothing in defeat, however at the odds I’m going to take a small chance on Scipion who is unexposed and caught the eye in his ptp.
12 30 Wincanton Holly. 9/2 0.5pts EW PP,Hills….
This is not ideal, as I wouldn’t be a great fan of mares running in open novice hurdles, however she is considerably better than her run last time. She needs to improve considerably in the jumping department, and should she do so, I could see her closely involved at the finish.
Last time she was still staying on well before a poor jump and hitting the last hurdle, hopefully she will clear it this time.
2.00 cagnes sur mer. Gagneur 0.25pts EW 11/2 b364..
Gagneur made a couple of small mistakes at the 4th last and last on his previous start which was just his 2nd run over fences, and he was still bang there.
He’s a very genuine horse that tries hard and can come forward for his prior experience. He doesn’t give up once ridden off the bridle and imo has a real desire to win, imo it’s only a matter of time before his desire to win is rewarded over fences.
Whether that’s today, when he’s running against the strong fav oktente who has some decent course and distance form, that remains to be seen. But it won’t be for want of trying.
Pau 12.05 history de choisel 5/1 0.25 pts EW sky (4 places)
This is a cross country race, snd there are a few entrants with classier form outside of this sphere.
History de choisel holds experience in this discipline, and despite not winning last time, she ran a very solid race, is well weighted, and if she is going to beat the cottin horses, it will be first time up.
3.35 chelt. martello sky 7/2 0.75 pts EW Hills (4 places)
I have been waiting all morning for a potential drift, the price is fair, and in line with my own, rather than strong value.
Last years Mares novice hurdlers weren’t a great bunch, however she would be right up there with the best of them over 2 and a half miles +.
Her mark of 140 is about right for what she has achieved, although there could be some Improvement to come from a stronger test of stamina against her own sex.
The Mares hurdle division does look very poor at the moment, and although you’d be extremely disappointed if she was to be good enough to win the Mares hurdle itself, she is one that could well be capable of running there, and wouldn’t be disgraced.
2.25 chelt Enrilo 0.75 pts EW 11/4 hills (4 places)
Enrilo fell last time out in the Ladbroke Trophy when well fancied. I’m willing to excuse his fall, where that race and his race course gallop prior, should see him coming in here reasonably fit.
His form prior was progressive and a mark of 147 looks very fair, he should be very strongly involved.
1.15 chelt Esprit du large 0.25pts EW 10/1 PP (4 places)
Esprit du large has some awful form figures at a first glance, however this is effectively a drop in grade off a fast tumbling mark of 138.
He has been given a chance by the handicapper, and although he will undoubtedly come on for the run, I could see him capable of causing a shock off his mark.
1 50 chelt Rose of arcadia 7/2 Hills 0.5 pts EW ( 4 places)
She has been fairly head strong prior, however she has settled in time, and her point to point experience should see her go well here, she is a sound jumper of a hurdle, and looks capable of progressing over fences from a mark of 119.
2.00 Warwick alavina 10/1 0.25 pts EW PP…
This is her first start over fences however she jumps a hurdle very well, she wouldn’t want any further, however 2 and a half miles around Warwick would look to be up her street.
I have always thought she has a fair bit of ability, and have followed herself and martello sky through bumpers to where they are now, they are closely matched though the latter is the stronger stayer.
Little river bay has been on the go for a while already this season and arguably sets a beatable standard, kapard brings some decent Irish form in to the mix
AndThe glancing queen has very valid claims. Though under a 5 pounds penalty I will take a chance on allavina here, and expect her to travel well and potentially be involved in the finish here on her chase debut.
3.00 Uttoxeter wolf spear 11/4 1pt EW b364
Wolfspear is a £110,000 relation to the useful mare sensulano and I liked him in his bumper, he found plenty off the bridle, opened up nicely to put the race to bed and hit the line well.
The skelton horses may or may not have won last time, however I get the real impression that he is a bridle merchant that finds little off it.
Fulll of light was sold to nicky henderson via mags mullins after wining a bumper, despite his appealing form figures, I do not like the strength and depth. One positive is the switch to a left handed track, though it would be a dissapointing race if he managed to win this.
Therefore wolfspear gets the nod here, and I will be hoping that he is well schooled, he may well get the better of cousu main late on.
12.40 cork Marvel de cericy 0.5 pts EW 7/1 b364….
Marvel de cerisy won a strong looking ptp where those in behind have gone nicely since, he made a decent hurdles debut where at face value he was a shade dissapointing, however I do belive that there was strength and depth to his race.
He is a pretty keen going sort who wears a hood, and he should come forward here both in race fitness and experience. He looks capable of building on his opening effort and imo he would look capable of causing an upset. he has very solid place credentials, with a valid win chance.
3.15 Aintree midnight river 0.25pts EW sky (5places)
midnight river and martinhal both look on fair marks, and are unexposed, midnight river has fell the last twice, but I’d definitely be willing to forgive him, i think he holds solid claims here, is a good price, and he should go well. win or lose he’s probably the best bet of the day at the odds, with to be sure 2nd best, so I hope he stays on his feet.
1.08 navan Folcano 0.25pts EW PP (6 places)
Folcano possibly lacks big field handicap experience, but I’d be certain that he’s well handicapped, he could arguably be one for the pertemps, but the owners sponsor this 100k race, and its a pot well worth trying to win. With a clean round he may be seen in a better light here.
2.15 Sedgefield patagonia 8/1 0.25pts EW b364
Bertrand Le Métayer paid £130,000 for this full brother to Diego du charmil, pategonia is also related to days of heaven who has ran well in to the 140s over both hurdles and fences for nicky henderson.
Breeding does not mean that pategonia is guarenteed to reach those heights by any stretch, but It’s a pretty solid family and he’s out of a very good mare that has produced well with few foals. He’s a big, scopey horse that moved well, and he should be well able to jump.
He was originally purchased to go in training with Arnaud Chaille-Chaille, and shortly after, he had been purchased by new connections, and ended up with Oliver greenall.
I’d be willing to take a small EW chance on patagonia here, in what wouldn’t look to be the strongest novice hurdle, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him involved.
1 30 clonmel. Western victory 5/1 0.5pts EW b364
She is fit, and in good form, the others are arguably having a prep over hurdles for a later chase assignment, where as western victory will be Trying for her life here. Pencilfuloflead should go well later in handicap chases something like the thyestes would look a winnable big pot, whether he wins here or not.
Southwell 1.55 supreme gift 8/1 0.25pts EW
Fergal obrien had 4 initial entries in here, has named the race himself, and relys solely on Crambo a well bred son of saddler maker with a pair of high profile owners. 3 pounds is taken off here by Liam Harrison, and I’m very hopeful that he will go well here.
Supreme gift is the winner of a ptp where the 3rd has since made £60,000 at the sales. Bridal knot is a relation to the very smart pair of beat that and might bite, and she is therefore worthy of respect. Carigdoun boy won a fairly weak looking ptp and made £48,000 at the sales, he may be seen to better effect over further.
The plan was always to back fergals horse here, and I’d been waiting keenly for the opening prices but I’m distraught with the opening odds. Should he open up bigger elsewhere I will re assess. Supreme gift is over priced with ew claims and I’m happy to put him up, he has enough pace for bumpers, and should be involved.
12.35 fairyhouse Max Mayhem 6/1 0.5pts EW Hills.
I like him an awful lot on the flat, and I’m aware this is an almighty task, but I’m going to take a chance on him. He is very classy on the flat and the ideal candidate for juvenile hurdles. I feel the fav is obviously very useful, but he has beaten trees on his irish debut, and comes from the Guillaume macaire academy so its no surprise that he will have been very well schooled from a young age, and is taking advantage of that, by beating lesser horses who are unexperienced.
Max mayhem, will almost certainly improve from this, do should he be beaten 6 or 7L he may bridge the gap later, but I’d see it as no suprose if he managed to give fil dor something to think about.
1.35 fairyhouse (4 places) hills Grand paradis 0 5pts EW 10/1 Beacons edge 0.5pts EW 9/2.
I like the pair here and I see both as ew outsiders for the marsh/ RSA they lack in chasing experience and the former fell last time, but I can forgive him that, and feel that he is capable here. Both should be involved here.
4.05 Wolverhampton Macchiavello 11/2 0.5ots EW
Silent speech is clearly the one to beat, however I think they have gone way overboard here. Macchiavello The son of No Nay Never cost £300,000 at the breeze-up sales and made a pleasing debut at Redcar, in the familiar silks of Amo Racing Ltd and Michael Tabor, I belive that he can come on for his debut run where he was green and potentially be heavily involved here.
2.50 Navan Farclas 0.75 pts EW 11/2 (6 places) sky/pp….
He was going well enough when he tipped up last time, and has a useful 5 pounds claimed off him here. This is his best trip, he is on a fair mark, and He should be closely involved in the finish.
Ascot 1.30 go millie go. 0.5 pts EW 7/1 365, 13/2 unibet.
Chasing is clearly not her game, She’s not particularly well in over hurdles due to the fact that a couple of others are making use of claimers. However she has been very consistent and holds the best form. Which is something that a few of the better fancied ones here have lacked.
I’d say that she will be going well here, and something may challenge and take over late on, however with the lack of consistency from the likes of Paul’s horse, there’s a possibility that, the winning challenge doesn’t come.
2.55 Chepstow Last Quarter 10/1 0.5pts EW bet365
He diddnt run great in his UK bumper, however he had won a fair looking race in Ireland prior. I’d be pretty confident that he wants a trip, so the extended 2m3 with obstacles infront of him, should see him in a much better light than last time out in his bumper.
He’s not the Quickest but he’d look to have a willing attitude, and he stays. The fact that he was set to run in a ptp before they were cancelled, means that he should be a capable jumper and with this race not being the deepest, I feel that he can be involved here.
12.20 ffoss lass dalamoi 0.5pts EW 9/2 bet364
He ran a decent race in a bumper last time against bontayy who has since followed up nicely, despite being a relation to Don poli, pour moi seems to have given him a bit of toe, so 2 miles would look to be his trip for now, and I’d be hopeful that he’s involved in the finish here.
2.15 Auteuil sky… (5 places)
Six one 0.25 pts EW 10/1
Hyghliner great 0.25pts EW 22/1
This is a very competitive handicap, highline great drops in to handicap company for the first time, and those who were members last year may well remember him, I had a strong word for him on debut, he disappointed on heavy ground, and has come out and won since.
He possibly lacks experience for this, and comes in off a long break, though I’d be certain that he’s on a handy mark here.
Six one fell last time, it was a long way from home, but I personally feel that he was going very well at the time, and would have gone close. Again it may take this run to build back up his confidence, but I also feel that he is well in, and is capable off his mark.
3.55 Chelt wheres maud gone 0.25pts EW 17/2 sky (5 places).
I like her, she will likely travel like the winner, and hopefully she gets home. She stumbled and lost momentum last time in what I’d say was a better race than this, and o felt very unlucky not to leave with a place, she is capable here.
1.32 Uttoxeter Lupus Regem 0.75 pts EW 4/1 bet365
He won his bumper very impressively before olly Murphy had purchased him for a Kings ransom, I do actually think he’s bought a pretty good one here, and he could be the one to beat.
2.10 worcester. Black Poppy 0.5pts EW 7/2 sky,betv 10/3 PP
Black poppy has done well in bumpers and had beat yesterday’s selection who ran very well, he was going pretty well on hurdles debut, and would look the one to beat here.
Jonjo O’Neil is represented here by a horse which won his PTP and finished 4th on hurdles debut, in a reasonable looking race. He can come forward from this, and it would be no surprise to see him in the money here.
Mot a mot has ability, though would have his own ideas about the game, and is best watched. Iberio who was bred in the same yard in Germany as the mighty Don Cossack, and subsequently won his bumper, looks to be a clear danger.
Market Rasen 12.30 Horizon D’ainay 0.25 pts EW 5/1 PP Hills
Horizon d’ainay ran in a bumper last season which looked a reasonable race. In his bumper he was held up in stone last while travelling withing his comfort zone and making some notable headway while staying on well.
He caught my eye, and he is bred to be a fair bit better over obstacles.
His Dam sirene D’ainay lead over the last in the mares hurdle where she was just beaten by Quevega on the run in, while his Sire has produced Sprinter Sacre, and Dams Sire has produce the likes of Neptune Collonge, silviniaco conti, and Al ferof.
This doesn’t mean that he is a star in waiting by any stretch, however he is bred for the game, and should find this more to his liking.
Raymond tusk is very classy on the flat, and should he be able to jump, he would take all the beating in theory, though his position in the market does make others behind a little more appealing from an EW angle.
Horizon Dainay is shorter than I thought he’d be, but a good few have been shorter than what I’d like and have gone on to win, so I will adjust, take the 5/1, and he may well out run his odds, with a set of hurdles infront of him.
Again small Stakes, and we will up them when I feel its the right opportunity.
2.00 Bangor Saint Segal 0.25pts EW 11/2 365.. 5s various
Saint segal was purchased at the 2020 autumn arqana sale as lot 489 for €51,000. He is well bred by Saint des Saints and has been at his current yard since the 19th of November last season. He moved well, looked well, and was consigned by Haras du Mondant who are no strangers to selling a good young horse with balko Saint being one that jane bought from them herself.
He has a real jumpers pedigree, with the likes of bal celtique, aurore celtique, windlow, westville and coblant. Furthermore I like the fact that he has been with Jane Williams for a long time, so I’d be very surprised if he isn’t well schooled, and subsequently dissapointed if he doesn’t have a clear round.
you could argue that he has somewhat of an advantage here despite being unraced in public, compared to the vast majority that have been bought off the flat recently.
So I will take a very small chance here on Saint segal.
3.25 Hereford. Yauthym 0.25pts EW 4/1 Hills sky pp… She ran poorly last time, however deote the field size, I would say that this is the easiest task she has had in some time. She was was set to win well before falling in a race which was won by starvoski last season, and although her subsequent form hasn’t been put of the ordinary. This would look to be her level. She would want to be running better than last time, and I feel a repeat of her prior efforts would see her going close here.
1.33 Auteuil. Sans Bruit 5/1 0.5pts EW
I know Sans bruit well and he was beaten by a couple of these last time out, though he gets a swing in the weights here, and I feel that he is capable of over turning the form.
Arguably imprenable I the one to beat, though I feel that Sans bruit may just have a little more about him in the finish, should it become a head to head battle, and ultimately the price dictates that this is rhe way to go for me. .
12.58 Auteuil. Le listrac 1pt insurebet evens sky (money back if 2nd or 3rd)
Le listrac is on better terms here, than he has been all season, the 2 Mares look capable down at the bottom of the weights, and bimbo has brings a different line of form which would look to be capable of being involved. Though I’d be a big fan of Le Listrac, and will be disspointed if he can not go close here.
2.50 Auteuil Thyme Hill 3/1 0.5 pts win 364
They have gone way overboard with the price on thyme hill here. L’autonomie is a very, very good horse at 2-2m5, however imo this is not her best trip at all. Thyme Hill would beat her 7 days a week and twice on Sunday around a conventional UK track, over 3 miles, with a run behind him.
So at 3/1 I will take a chance that he jumps the fixed brush hurdles, stalks her, and takes over on the run in.
3.55 aintree Sandringham 9/2 1pt EW 364
Mr hofer had come to these shores previously and won with surin who was sold on to gordon elliot. Sandringham who he runs here, was due to run in the exact same bumper as surin, however his handler on the day had a passport issue.
Sandringham has had this earmarked for a return trip, and he would look to be very much in the shop window, while he would want to be going well here. The pricey saveasea who is a relation to formerly smart mandatorio, would look the one to beat on paper.
3.40 Newbury. Sporting Ace 12/1 0.25 pts EW 364
Sporting ace ran in to Grangeclare West in his ptp, the winner is one which I would have backed for the champion bumper, should he have gone down that route. So this lad who was purchased for £90,000 at the sales, was beaten readily enough by him, though he did well, and should be good enough to be involved here.
2.30 Chepstow. Amarillo Sky 0.5pts EW 9/2 sky (5 places) (2nd pref 5/1Hills…4p)
If I had the option to add at SP I would, as he could arguably touch 5s+ here, however rather than me keep checking the odds for another hour or so, I will put up now for my own ease.
Surprisingly the tizzards have found the perfect race for amarillo Sky, he will be a good bit better than his hurdles mark of 129 over fences and this is the right trip.
There are absolutely no excuses here.
Tokay dokey was about to run in the supreme when last seen, he’s on a very handy mark, and it would be no surprise to see him go well.
Brewers project has been crying out for a fence over this trip, and this is where your likely to see the best of him, I strongly question his finishing effort, so he is best watched
I’m hoping amarillo Sky attempt to make all here, I’ll be dissapointed if he isn’t bang there at the last.
12.55 Exeter. bold conduct 10/1 0.25 pts EW 365
Bold conduct was bought for £150,000 back in 2018 when he picked up a leg problem. They have stuck with him, he has always gone well at home, and they have been waiting for some ease in the ground to get him out.
He will likely be wanting this run, though at the prices, I’ll take a chance at the lowest possible Stakes.
I hope he goes well for the Owners who have been extremely patient, in waiting for what they feel is the right opportunity.
12.50 carlisle. papa charly tango 5/1 0.5 pts EW sky (4 places)
This is an absolute cracker of a race, and a real stand out novice handicap chase..
There will be winners all over the place here, so it may well pay to follow the race forward, for those in b8ehind.
In time, killer kane, and papa tango charly should easily exceed their hurdle marks over fences, theyre likely well handicapped here over fences, though you could easily question their finishing effort to date.
Dreams of home was the winner of a good ptp, showing decent form already, while Karl phillipe and ballybeg have decent back form.
There’s a lot to like here, and dreams of home may catch them cold on seasonal debut. He has a good mix of pace and stamina about him, he jumped nicely in his ptp, and he could make all here, stack them up and go again.
Karl phillipe is the best handicapped horse in this field over hurdles without doubt imo, I’m not sure if he wants a fence, as he isn’t the greatest jumper of a hurdle, so I suppose we will find out here.
However I am going to take a chance on Papa Tango charly to show improvement off a mark of 128, I feel this trip is right up his street, and he has been crying out for the switch to the larger obstacles.
2.10 Ascot Soaring Glory. 0.5 pts EW 5/1 PP (5 places)
Members backed him last season, both on the day and Antepost for the betfair hurdle, he came there swinging on the bridle, and duly obliged. He is up 10 pounds here after a fair run against what I would consider to be the best novice hurdler of last season.
Now I wouldn’t be sure how tip top he is for this, but I’m sure we will find out once push comes to shove.
He has a strong crusing speed, tactically he should have no issues at all here, and I’d be hopeful that he will be strongly involved at the finish.
ONE TO WATCH
Andreas Wöhler has a runner at Ascot, the trainer from Ravensberg Germany attacks a decent looking bumper with Estacas who runs in the colours of Fährhof stud farm. Jamie Moore will sit in the saddle of the son of Galileo, with Wöhler having previous form of making the very costly trip over.
Laertes Cause placed in a bumper at Stratford in summer 2006, Milton Harris subsequently purchased him and promptly won two races in this sphere.
IL PRESIDENTE landed a successful raid at Fontwell, when bolting up and being sold to continue his career with Ian Williams.
Andreas Wöhler could have found an easier race than this, so a bold call, and he’d want to be going well to command a high fee, with estacas, being very much in the shop window.
Wetherby 4.55 Guardino 6/1 0.5 pts EW 365
Guardino cost £170,00 after finishing 2nd in a ptp therefore has prior experience over obstacles.
He somewhat disappointed on his bumper debut, then narrowly got off the mark when last seen in February.
He should make a better novice hurdler than bumper horse, and I will be disspointed if he can not be involved here
3.05 foss lass. Bill baxter 13/8 1 pt win.
Bill baxter Is one that I was going to back before declared a non runner at the weekend, I like him, and I believe that he should win his fair share of races this season, should he not be tried too highly.
This is quite a trappy race tbf, with some experienced rivals in here, but I’d be hopeful that he can still win.
I’m quite frustrated by 365 putting up odds way too early, in turn what I want to put up, and I’m waiting for, are Nov hurdlers being tagged cheaply, while I’m waiting for the rest to price up.
so I will mix it up, and put this one up early, to test the waters, to mainly provide the service that the lads and ladies are paying for, as a stand alone service with the daily bets, and have that bookmaker available.
please give me some feedback if there’s any issues, and in the mean time, I will see how the markets are reacting, and see if I need to adjust to the early times, or I can wait, which i would like to, as I do during the flat season.
4.40 wexford Western flyer 0.25 pts EW 8/1 PP
I watched western flyers 2nd point to point and he travelled well and won readily in the hands of Derek O’connor, hebeqs bought back for £150,000 at the sales, and since changed yards to a trainer that in all honesty I am unfamiliar with.
I would be assuming that he will be seen at the sales again before long, so he would want to be making a good impression. However he looks to be running in to atleast 1 here, who Patrick mullins is on board.
What makes it slightly intersting is Derek o Connor had ridden the mullins mount prior, and sticks to western flyer here. That, along with the fact that he visual looked useful in his p2p would leave me to take a very small chance here, while I’m very much treading carefully at a difficult part of the season, in terms of race fitness for NH Horses
2.50 Longchamp Valia 0.5 pts EW 11/2 sky (5 places)
I’m very dissapointed that bill baxter Is a NR at Aintree, as I belive he will be a useful Novice that will win his fair share this season, and he was set to be the main bet of the weekend.
Any how, The French haven’t won too many of their best flat races lately, though valia is one who I have been watching throughout the season, and has been knocking on the door in good events.
A test of stamina is what she wants, and what she gets, and I’d be very hopeful that she can be closely involved here.
Newbury 2.00 Dubai Poet 5/1 0.5 pts EW sky (4 places)
Yesterday evening, I was considering samarrive and Jeremy the jinn at chelt, however the Nr here made me feel that this is the better bet, so hopefully the result shows this.
I wanted to put him up dubai poet on his 2nd start, however he opened up much shorter than I thought he would, however with the manner of victory, you can see why.
He ran in very good company last time, and his finishing position was absolutely no disgrace. I expect him to come forward for the experience, and though noble truth sets a solid bench mark, I believe it is one that is achievable.
If anyone wanted to hang on a little while, he may reach 11/2 or 6/1 with the 4 places with sky, or those that do EW extra…
12.50 Auteuil. Guepard Du Berlais 0.25 pts EW 15/2 sky (4 places)
Guepard du berlais has some good back form, and he was being ridden confidently whilst tracking the fav (six one) last time. It was an awful long way out, however he was still going very nicely, when six one fell and brought him down.
I feel that on all known form, and the visual impression of his positioning and the way that he travelled, that he would have been involved in the finish. Therefore all of the above and his light weight, leaves him as the one for me here at the prices, with Air commodore arguably the one to beat in a very competitive race.
Air commodore has had a recent spin on the flat, has targetted this race, and has a reasonable rise in the weights to contenders with. likewise pirac who is possibly a bit high in the handicap now.
there is one that I will likely take a very small chance on in the 1st race at Auteuil, this is an occasion that I would recommend the extra place with sky, as the place terms are very harsh indeed for such a competitive big field handicap, that you could liken to the Lanzarote hurdle.
2.30 Fontwell Fortunes Melody 0.25 pts EW 15/2 PP
She was a proper horse in france, before imo recieveing a poor ride on debut, though it must be said, she wouldn’t have won anyhow.
She was made more use of next time, as per in france and was beaten by a decent horse in allavina.
Fortunes melody has been dropped to a mark of 130 and steps up in trip here, she has now had time to acclimatise, and I’d be hopeful that she can progress from ehat she has shown do far, as in all honesty, she had the profile of a Mares Novice Hurdle winner, prior to coming here.
I am not completely confident that the trip is ideal, therefore I would strongly question her finishing effort. however from a mark of 130, I’m hoping she gets in a good rhythm, and can get those behind off the bridle.
1.30 Gowran Slamadoor 8/1 0.25 pts EW sky, hills, betfred… (4 places)
Slamadoor isn’t particularly a winner in waiting, however the company she finds herself in is of an achievable standard.
Nothing in here would have won the races that she has ran in, and quite possibly they may not have been able to beat her finishing positions either.
Shehas kept some good company and ran without being disgraced, being in and around jarvis on debut, de Vegas Warrior on his 2nd start, and just the form in general of the 300k sales race that slamadoor ran mid field in last time, leads me to belive that this race, is a whole lot easier.
Slamadoor has been a shade disappointing, however she is best judged on what she does now dropped in to handicap company with blinkers applied,
This is her level, off a fair mark, and I could see her being in the mix here, despite her poor form figures at face value.
1.10 naas Siesta beach 2pts insurebet (3 places) 15/8 sky. (7/4 bet365)
Siesta beach travelled very well last time, and simply ran in to one, the horse she finished just infront off has gone on to win a good maiden, and in reality there is not much between the front 3 here.
Joseph makes use of a claimer and has a fair shout, where karkiyna should be involved late here, and may just lack the cruising speed of Siesta beach.
Siesta beach has a good cruising speed and therefore the timing of her challenge, may well be the difference between winning and placing, I will be disspointed of she is not bang thetebat the finish. +3.75
2.00 Ascot. Dragon Symbol 0.5 pts EW 11/2 Hills (5 places)
I would be hoping that dragon symbol will be committed later than usual here, as he was commited a little early over 5F at the curragh, in a race which was similarly strong.
Dragon symbol steps back up to 6f which has always looked to suit him, and should he run to form, he will be bang there at the finish in a very competitive race.
Please stick to the smaller Stakes here as advised, as many of the horses at Ascot today, have had a tough old season, and aren’t assured to show their peak form. I am very much looking at the jumps atm, without quite being ready to be betting on them, day to day.
Of the other action, One to watch at the curragh is new energy in the 3.15, he made a big impression in both his 2nd barrier trial, and his maiden, this is a big step up in grade and company, and I would really hope that he can run well, with a view to the future, he could be a wild one for something like the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot next season, Though that thought could potentially end here.
I will re-look at the odds in the morning, though atm, it looks like we will be going straight in to the weekend. -1
1.00 Nottingham Windseeker 8/1 0.25pts EW bet364
“One of interest having his debut that I have been waiting for is WINDSEEKER who was a £75,000 purchase at the October yearling sales, he has a future entry in the grade 2 railway stakes for Richard hannon”
Windseeker is one I mentioned highly of very early in the season, He had a prior entry in good time, to back up in the railway Stakes if indeed go8od enough.
Now something clearly has gone wrong, he diddnt make that entry, and has been out on the side lines for the rest of the season until now.
I’m willing to take a very small chance on him here, with a far from perfect build up, in a maiden with plenty of pricey debutants.
I wouldn’t be shocked at all, should he win, though he may well need the run. +0.15 no BOG applied.
he ran very well, was slightly hampered, but no excuses, he will likely come forward from this.
Newcastle 6.30 Kingofhell 15/2 0.25 pts EW PP
Kingofhell looked to be a potentially exciting colt on debut, given his price tag and breeding.
He is out of Hay Chewed, who won 4 races at 2 years including a win in a Listed Stakes at Ayr over 5 furlongs, and by Dark Angel, the leading sire of sprinters and milers in 2019
I think he has ability. He is a bit of a boy, green and babyish and Is reportedly “a slow learner who has taken a long time to mentally get to grips with the game”
His run last time in 5th, would look to be a step forward from kingofhell, who now is dropped in to handicap company for the first time off a mark of 70, he doesn’t travel supremely well, though the lesser level, may be able to see him finish his race well to potentially be involved in the closing stages here, should he come forward again, as his profile suggests.-0.5
he ran pretty well here in 4th, he should come forward again, however I’m lead to believe that he will be put away for the season now.
2.50 Auteuil Le Listrac 9/2 0.75pts EW bet364.
Le listrac is a very good horse, who did not have the race ran to suit last time, and only got going at the line…
This was coming off a break, The more pace on the better for le listrac, and you may well see a better finishing kick here. Should the race not be ran to suit, he does have a finish to get him out of trouble, he is never to be discounted, and a chance will be taken.
There is a good program for Le Listrac, and I expect him to improve with each run. He is top class imo.
ran very well and lead over the last, beaten by a very useful mare who was entitled to turn the tables at the weights, she was priced accordingly until a very late drift, i ideally should have mentioned her in the write up, as per last time with le listrac.
Sat 1.10 Newmarket Altraif 8/1 0.5pts EW Hills. (3 places)
Altraif has been dropped 1 pound for his last race, in which the front 2 were raised significantly for showing authority over him.
The revised terms here, the fact that he handled the track well at Newmarket before, and the application of cheek pieces, all lead me to believe that he may well be capable of going very well here.
Croupier was a real danger here, and now that he is declared a non runner, the 8/1 with William Hill on Altraif, is to be taken, and I feel he has a very good chance of being involved here.
There will be 4 places available with sky later this evening, though imo 8/1 and 3 places, is not to be missed, where possible.
slow start and never involved, a step up in trip would look to be the orderbof the day. Beaten fair and square.
something to read while I’m looking at Saturday…
Magistrato runs in the first race at Chepstow for Paul Nichols and he has only just missed the weeks ahead thread, due to the potential of bypassing the Triumph Hurdle, and potentially being a long term prospect.
Magistrato was beaten fair and square by Gary Moores Porticello, who had a superior finishing kick.
Although he shouldn’t have any problem in being strongly involved in races of this nature, Magistrato may develop in to a very useful future staying chaser in time, and at this stage, I do not see him as a likely Triumph hurdle WINNER.
This will be his second run over hurdles…. so alternative prospects, other than the Triumph, are viable.
Friday. 3.00 Newmarket CHINDIT 9/2 0.5 pts EW sky (4 places) 5/1 PP.. (3 places)
No bet for Thursday, however straight on to Friday, and Pogo and benbatl have franked the form of chindit in a Group 2. Imo chindit was coming with a winning challenge before finding no room on the rail, he stayed back on well, and should be strongly involved over 7f here. He had previously ran very well in the Prix Jacques La Marois and was bang there, while only just losing a good 4th place at the finish over a mile. This race has a questionable finisher in Al suhail at the front of the market, and an exposed Dbai just behind him, I feel they have been well placed, and I would be certain that the pair wouldn’t have bettered his 5th place finish in the the Prix Jacques La Marois. Chindit is the one for me here, and hopefully we get a clear run through.
Ran well enough and beaten fair and square. I would say that verything went right, with no excuses.
1.45 Navan SIESTA BEACH 0.5pts win 7/2 PP Hills….
The exta distance should strongly suit siesta beach here.
She was a 70k breeze up purchase who won her barrier trial at dundalk, during the race, she picked up nicely, was well in controll, she hit the line well suggesting she could easily get further than the 7f trip there.
Dropped to 5f last time, after being headed late on over 6f in her maiden, I do not think it suited her, I can see why they made the decision to drop back, but she had just ran in to a couple of useful ones, and was happy at the trip previously.
I have simply been waiting to make sure she didn’t drift markedly, as per her debut.
The trip will suit here, I expect her to go very well, and should there be not something out of the ordinary unraced, then she may well win this.
Ran very well, travelled well and 7F is the right trip. Finished 2nd to a very expensive one of Aidens, and demoted to 3rd. Capable at the same level.
3.30 Galway Noble Yeats 0.5 pts EW 5/1 bet365…
Noble yeats jumped very well in his p2P where finishing 2nd, Before placing in a bumper, and bolting up
On his next start, all be it in testing conditions.
He wasn’t disgraced by kilcruit at leopardstown, in an extremely strong event that was to be his last run in a NHF.
What is interesting as well as the fact that they turned down £290,000 for him, is that he backed up his ptp performance over obstacles, with a fine display over hurdles, he beat a good performer there very easily, the 2nd beat boothill, Smurphy Enki and Ballybegg In a P2P and has subsequently bolted up himself In a very poor looking novice hurdle.
Noble Yeats jumped impeccably throughout, and won at his own leisure.
Connections have opted to waste no time in going straight over fences, and the ground conditions look to suit. It is noteworthy that he will be going up in trip in the near future from the trip of just over 2m2F here. However he may be capable of making an immediate impact, even at the shorter trip.
I do think he is potentially very useful, and I am expecting absolutely no major issues in the jumping department.
Gabynako, Magic daze and julies stowaway are the real ones that have valid win credentials here besides Noble Yeats, and out of the first 3, I’d say that would be the order of ability shown, however I do worry about the jumping of Gabynako, he fell in the Martin Pipe, and made further mistakes last time. He does have a prior ptp run, however I would have to watch him here, unless he was priced to be very appealing.
Noble Yeats is very much unexposed, you could argue that he lacks experience, however I wouldn’t agree, on terms of his ability to potentially win. He is the one for me here. +3.3
Noble yeats got all of the trip here and won well, he will go up in trip now and may well end up targeting the Irish National.
3.35 Tipperary Loch Lein 6/1 0.25 pts EW sky (4 places)
I had wrote out a completely different bet, however PP cut immediately as I was posting, so that has all changed, and it may well work out better anyway.
Loch lein is in here at the foot of the weights and deserves her chance, we backed her last time when she ran very well to pick up some place money, and I feel her form has taken an incline.
Loch lein is improving, she looks like she wants the mile, and she gets 20 yards short of it here in testing conditions.
I feel this will be right up her street, and although the competitive nature of the race means that Stakes will be at a small level, with bigger and better opportunities ahead. I would still not be shocked at all should she be very closely involved here, in what is undoubtedly a tough race. -0.5
the winner won very well, Loch lein didn’t run her race, however there are no excuses, as she wouldn’t have beaten the winner anyway, even if she had.
3.50 Longchamp Thundering Nights 14/1 0.5pts EW betfred. (4 places)
Thundering Nights is a solid filly, she ran in to two very good ones last time, with the winner imo improving in to potentially the best 3yo filly on either side of the Irish sea. I think thundering nights pretty much ran her race, she carried a penalty and was kept wide throughout, nothing in this field would have won that race.
She ran in france on her previous start, where Audarya beat her fair and square, and I see no huge reason why she will not do so again.
However this is no disgrace, for me, Audarya is the one to beat, she was 3rd in this race last year, and should be bang there in the finish again on all known form.
Therefore the closely related form of Thundering nights should be on the premises here.
I personally have Thundering Nights down as the 6/1 2nd fav on my own compiled odds.
I have not been impressed with the staying 3yo fillies this season besides La peit coco who I feel is smart, and snowfall who has been pretty good in races of high quality via name, however fields of lower quality company.
The hype is around sibila Spain due to her time being recorded as a front runner, in a pretty poor looking field, she has the potential to go well from the front, however it’s a fair ask in testing conditions, in a much tougher race
Bulgarita looks a filly who wants a test of stamina, and should she handle conditions, she may well be the best of the 3yo’s.
In summary, Thundering Nights, is an EW bet for me here, where in all honesty I am looking for a place, though should Audarya underperform or be asked to challenge considerably too early, then thundering nights should stay all the way to the line and have a fair shot at picking up the pieces here.
Due to the testing conditions, plenty may well under perform today, with the experience Thundering nights has accrued, and the way she picked back up when Santa Barbra loomed along side her, I’m hoping Thunder nights won’t be one of the ones, which does not run their race. -1
I didn’t think she was travelling very well early on, She was positioned poorly, however I am not going to blame the jockey, as visually she did not look able to make up the ground early, For no other reason than she has been on the go a good while now. She finished well, and ran well over all, she just never had a chance of making up the extra place.
Sun 2.25 Longchamp HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS 10/1 0.5pts EW sky (5 places) bet365, hills (4 places)
This is an Arabian race, and a very good one at that, so those who do not enjoy such races, please feel free to move on to our later selections.
However I know the horses very well, and do enjoy the Arabian races, so I’m going to take a chance on a progressive young horse that I have been following, I was hoping that MON’NIA may have gone this way, but was very pleased to see HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS declared for this race.
EBRAZ, and TAYF are top class hold up Arab horses, that without doubt should make marked progress late on here to be strongly involved. LADY PRINCESS beat the pair at Goodwood receiving weight, and is also capable here.
But I want to take a chance on HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS who is the next generation coming though, he was hampered at la Teste when he should have won, before he was beaten 6L last time by SOKO who I feel was gifted an easy one outfront, 1.53 at the 400 Meter mark, he stacked them up and went again. with HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS held right up of an unsatisfactory pace, imo using the race very much as a prep for Sundays race.
This race should be truly ran, with the potential for SOKO to weaken off the front end, and those held up to come through.
HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS will be held up, as will the top class EBRAZ, it will be interesting to see if the youth can come to the fore here, as I feel that HOGGAR DE L’ARDUS may be the future star, with EBRAZ being the current one. . +6
you will not see a more accurate write up, Hoggard de L’ardus is only 4, and should be seen here for the next few years. MON’NIA is also one to note for next year, should the ground come up better.
2.40 Ascot Hukum 1 pt EW 10/3 bet365/ betfred.
I do quite like the progressive title here at the lower weights, and last night he was the one, however there was a watching brief with the impending rain, and although I would absolutely not put anyone off him, I would give the squeak to hukum, who I feel is tough, and may well just see it out to the line better in the conditions. +4.
Hukum handled the conditions very well, won very easily, staying on best of all.
5.15 dundalk Loveday 0.5pts EW 13/2 bet365. 11/2 unib. (4 places)
I expect loveday to break fast here and attempt to make all, she has orevious experience of the track from her debut, and has no easy task. Geocentric is the one to beat, however there is a chance that loveday breaks particularly well and catches her cold on her all-weather debut. Ladies church is a keen sort, and will likely be tracking loveday, where she has a fair chance of passing her in the final furlong.
The prices dictate that the speedy and consistent loveday is the bet here, of she shows the fiercer improvement which she has in her prior races, she may well be able to catch them cold from the gate.
I will be dissapointed if she is out of the 4. +0.15
she did not get the quick break I was hoping for here, she ran her race, and ran well. Geocentric broke well and won fair and square.
12.50 Auteuil colbert du berlais
0.5pts EW 5/1 sky/ unibet (5 places)
Colbert du berlais is a good solid individual, last time he was backing up quickly in torrential rail, with the weights not in his favour, and I am willing to excuse this run as him not being at his peak. Though in context it wasn’t a bad one.
He comes in here off a break, he is around 4 pounds better off with those who beat him last time, and i belive that he can go well here off top weight. The ground is testing, and I expect the tough colbert du berlais to find a second wind, and stay on well to the line.
ran exactly as expected, and as in the write up.
2.22 Salisbury, Hannibal Barca 0.75 pts EW 9/2 bet365
This race is tough, however hannibal Barca made a big impression on me, with his run on debut when running green, outpaced, and flying home late behind wanees who runs in the first race today.
Ideally, I would have preferred the maiden over a mile on Saturday, however Ryan moore has been booked, and I will be very interested to see what he has learned from his debut, and in particular how he travels through the early part of this 7F race.
As mentioned, this is strong for a class 4, he may not have had a great deal behind him on debut, and he may be scrubbed along mid race, want further and make me look silly here. however he gave me the real impression that he should come forward markedly for the experience.
He hit the line hard last time, with more to give.
I am taking the chance that he can get away with the trip here, such as the impression he made on me last time.
ran exactly as I hoped, may not be out of place in the racing post trophy, as a big outsider. (Vertem futurity)
I have tried my very best, to put something up for wed, however I feel the right opportunity is not there. Hopefully Thursday will be worth the small wait, with a shade of luck on the opening odds.
2.00 Curragh. Rockbury lad. 33/1 0.25 Pts EW PP (4 places)
Rockbury lad has been a huge eye catcher in his 2 runs to date, he has very much been learning on the job in tough maidens, on debut he travelled well, and was tenderly handled to drop back to last, on his 2nd start he again travelled well, he found some misfortune in running, was very tenderly handled under hands and heels, before imo the jockey checked what was left underneath him, just before the Line, with a response shown.
He is to be closely watched here, under the highest scrutiny, as he could be getting a 3rd run, to drop in to a nursery where he will likely go very well.
Though it is not out of the equation, that a few quid comes for him, and today is the day.
I have absolutely no doubt, that he is considerably better than what he has shown to date, and he will need to be, to finish in the top 8 here.
Wrightly or wrongly, probably the latter with a plethora of £650,000+ colts in here. I am quite excited about this one.
I will be delighted if he runs to merit and steals a place.
didn’t run great, but is very interesting at nursery level, kicking myself for avoiding the winner due to 365 pricing at 100/1 which was unavailable elsewhere, had noted the Guineas entry, and his barrier trials. Looks smart, from his barrier trials, I’d personally say he will end up dropping back in trip and being a 6/7F sprinter, but time will tell.
12.58 Auteuil. Matilda du berlais 1.5 pts insurebet (2places) 11/8 William Hill
Matilda du Berlais, now receives weight from la boatie, I would fully expect her to be ridden closer to her rival, pick her up, and spit her out in the closing stages. I will be extremely surprised if matilda du berlais, does not manage to beat her. Francois Nicole runs altesse de berlais here, she has ran down a less traditional route and is open to further improvement, I expect matilda du berlais to beat her, however she is the unknown, so the one to watch while the race unfolds.
I will be extremely dissapointed if matilda du berlais is out of the 2 here. In a race which may Frank the form of Henry de bromheads Foxy Girl.
very poor tactically, front ran as a hold up horse with a finishing kick, left nothing in reserve, change of tactics may potentially revese that form.
2.25 Newmarket Sandrine 0.75 pts EW 9/2 skybet (5 places)
Sandrine is without a penalty with this race being a Group 1. I feel she is capable of reversing the form with zain claudette here.
Sacred bridge deserves considerable respect here, and is the one to beat, this is a step up in company for her imo, so it will be fairly interesting to see how she has travelled over.
should try the mile next and should go well.
Friday 3.00 Newmarket HELLO YOU 1pt EW
17/2 Hills (4 places)
She was hampered last time in the closing stages, and the form has worked out well.
The fav here, also beat value theory, if you watch back the 2 races, side by side, I believe hello you did the better job, taking in to account that she was ridden in to a closing gap.
Value theory was able to dictate both races at a reasonable pace, I belive she ran to a very simular level in both.
I belive jumbly has beaten very little, and faces by far her biggest test here.
Girl on film came for some considerable money early in the week and warrants respect
The only other thing I will note, is that femme friendly can have her last run written off entirely, I belive that she will put it all together at some point, and is riddled with ability, without to date having the experience or temperament.
However For me, HELLO YOU represents outstanding value here, with the prices and place terms.
won as expected, as mentioned previously, she needed a more prominent ride, and relieved it, finally.
4.35 listowel Farclas 7/1 0.25 pts EW sky 6 places.
Farclas is one i have been waiting to see in a 3 mile handicap chase for some time. Coming off the back of the national is not ideal, however jordan Gainford takes a useful claim, and a very small chance will be taken, while I am waiting for better opportunities.
As mentioned in the members horses to follow some time ago, conflated has been aimed here, he is well handicapped, and it would be no surprise should he win.
was fav in running, fell, and is what it is. The ultima would suit, however could easily go for the irish National.
something to read while I’m still looking. ….
THE BOSSES OSCAR is one which just about missed the weeks ahead thread upon entries, the NH Chase would look common sense, however he jumped poorly in his first ptp, and i have seen a mistake in him over hurdles.
He may win this, and should he, he would have achieved little.
He is a good decent yardstick, no more than this, therefore AT THIS STAGE of the season, the bosses Oscar Antepost for the NH chase is NOT FOR ME.
2.00 Lingfield. Zoltan star 9/1 0.25 pts EW 365
zoltan star makes his handicap debut off a mark of 76, having recently come down in the weights in better races
He had always kept fair company, so his lack of a win is no disgrace, and now at handicap level, I feel he is capable of being involved here.
ran OK, no excuses
1.35 Gowran. Awesome wonder 0.25 pts EW 12/1 364
Awesome wonder was kept widest of all throughout, she travelled well, and ran very satisfactory, while tenderly handled in the closing stages. Her draw in 14 was the difference between going close, and not quite getting involved at the finish.
she is drawn high again in 17, which is far from ideal. I had actually mistaken her draw with the reserve horse underneath, which is completely my mistake, however a chance will still be taken here.
There will be absolutely no excuses here for Awesome wonder.
Please Note, There may be more selections, the top 2 I wanted to put up are too short atm. Stakes are to be kept as advised, We will have our chance to get back on track before the month is over.
Capable with a better draw, so this may end up being worthwhile in the future
1.20 Auteuil Le Listrac 3pts insurebet 5/4 (3places) hills
I had him wrote out at 11/4 EW, however in waiting until 9am, that has gone, so we will take revised terms.
In contrast to the eye catching hold up horse L’aubonnier,
Do not expect Le Listrac to be a strong travelling flashy horse, however do expect him to look beaten and find generously in the closing stages, potentially bulldozing through the 2nd last before he starts his run.
Queen Du Berlais jumps and travels well on the pace, before not finding a great deal in the finish. To the untrained eye, she will likely go a lot shorter than SP in running around 3 from home, with the aforementioned L’abonnier likely market favouritism there after.
However, despite a tall order at the weights, Nothing will finish the race better than Le Listrac, who has an abundance off class and stamina of which hopefully should be aparrent in the closing stages here.
Should he get to the lead after the last, it will be some task to fight back, as he won’t be pulling up.
he is the best of these, as you will later see, Queen de berlais tapped out too early off a sedate pace, the leaders weren’t stopping. Absolutely did not suit le listrac, who only got going at the line. Do not underestimate him.
2.35 Naas. Orinoco River 1pt insurebet (3 places) 5/2 sky
I saw enough on debut, in what I beleive to be a decent race, to make me feel that natural improvement would likely see new York City involved here. However orinoco River sets a good standard, you can scrap the form figures, as they were in tougher races than this, and one of them she stumbled badly and was heavily eased.
Orinoco River should be heavily involved here.
3.10 naas Memory Motel 0.75 pts EW 5/1 sky / Unibet.
Imo she ran a stormer last time, I have had her noted for a handicap debut, as per previous comments, and I expect her to make her mark here, off a lenient looking mark in a very competitive handicap.
went extremely close, today was the day, and should have won
Alvediston 0.5 pts (Total) EW 7/1 bet365
Court of Session 0.25pts EW 13/2 PP 11/2 (b365)
We backed Alvediston on debut where i thought he showed promise, she was eased in the closing stages and headgear has been applied here. We will keep stakes small until I find the right opportunity, however I am hopeful of a good run from Alvediston in what looks to be a strong enough race, with millenial moon having made a fair debut, and court of session being potentially useful (who I have also decided to add, upon the opening odds).
Alvediston is Frustrating, very capable, however not finishing off his race, undecided on whether to back next time, solely depends on opposition
2.55 Sandown holiday 0.25 pts EW 13/2 sky 6/1 PP.
Prior to his debut Holiday who cost just 3k had been away to Newbury to gallop and worked very well without really coming off the bridle, he was thrown in to a ridiculous ask on debut, in a race which is extremely strong, he made no mark what so ever in the closing stages, however this is a huge drop in grade, and may be more to the liking of holiday.
hampered ran very well imo, can win a maiden, though one more run and a nursery is viable
Yarmouth 1.50 red Joan 0.25 pts EW 10/1 hills
Red Joan has dropped 3 pounds and she gets the step up in trip she has been crying out for here.
She drops in grade in to a class 5 nursery
And despite her poor form figures in paper, I believe there was substance their, and I feel she can be involved
Ran well, can win as she drops in the weights and goes further out in trip.
2.20 Curragh. La Petite Coco 0.5pts EW 9/2 Hills betv.
won very well, exactly as suspected, massively looking forward to Ascot.
3.30 Curragh. Cairde Go Deo 1pt insurebet 2/1 (3 places) hills
12.40 leopardstown corviglia 1.5 pts insurebet 3 places 6/5 sky., evens…. (money back if 2nd/3rd)
Corviglia has some solid form she has progressed with each run, and would look to be right up on the once here. imo she has a solid win chance, with it looking tough to pass her and keep her out of the frame.
Penine Hills has been highly tried and ran very well since winning her barrier trial and maiden, should she get the trip here, she may be able to be involved, at 12/1 EW w/o corviglia, I wouldn’t put any one off, though corviglia is the one for me here.
ran OK, no excuses.
16th Oct 3.30 Ascot. La petite coco 1 pt win @ 14/1 Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
La petite coco runs at the weekend in a very tough race, where i think she will do well.
She has progressed with every run to date, and I feel that she can show further progression.
She obviously needs to go well here, which I feel she will be able to build upon further from this, to put her in with a chance of winning on champions day.
At 14/1, she is a bet for me.
Excellent bet, did as expected, and one to massively look forward to.
12th. 3.30 curragh Caird Go Deo 0.75pts EW 7/2 Hills. I have been very impressed with her 2 starts to date, the way she finished her race last time, leads me to believe that she will relish the step up in trip here, and she has been supplemented for this huge jump up in competition. Therefore a chance will be taken on Caird De Geo, who i feel could well be able to compete at the highest level, and be very smart indeed.
didn’t run her race, still one to strongly note going forward and rated highly.
Friday 2.10 Doncaster Armor 2/1 1.5pts win betv
We backed him in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, before he bolted up next time, he has since gone to France and ran very credibly over 6f, in a much tougher race than this.
Back over 5F, I see him as more of an even money shot than 2/1.
He clearly has a very good chance.
Armor should get our weekend off to a good start, with some quality racing over the weekend, with the likes of dragon symbol…. leaving us with no excuses not to make a move.
won everywhere but the line, beaten by an inferior horses, beautifully ridden.
Ardbraccan 0.25pts EW 14/1 sky(4P)
Modern news is the one to beat, however Ardbraccan was one I was hoping was going to chester on Friday, where she was set to be a solid bet.
she has had a fair few runs now, though I still think she hasn’t been seen to her very best.
When She ran at this level at goodwood, a gap didn’t come, where imo she would have gone extremely close.
She has been highly tried, with imo her last run being very respectable, now she drops back in to a level, that I feel she should have won at when last time in a Nursery.
Any improvement at all from Ardbraccan, and she would go very close here.
did not run her race, has been a long season, may surprise next year in handicap company
3.25 Doncaster Loch Lein 0.25 pts EW 10/1 PP (4P)
Loch lein has been quietly ticking away all season, improving her seasonal form. Last time out coming off the back of a Listed race in france, she ran a stormer in a decent race, and I feel that this race is very suitable to back up in.
The fav would look tough enough to beat here, double bubble, would also look to be a solid contender
However Loch lein should give them something to think about here.
ran very well, just beaten by a couple of better horses.
4.05 cork. Lyrical poetry 0.25 pts EW 14/1 PP/BFSB
Lyrical poetry ran in a barrier trial at dundalk as batch 8. I liked what i saw there, she travelled sweetly throughout the race, with herself and perfect thunder pulling away nicely in the closing stages.
I believe this race will work out well, with the 9th already coming out of the race to win on debut, and the 3rd there Black Vega particularly catching my eye with a tenderly handled ride, and one to note for future entries.
Lyrical poetry could well be able make her prescence felt here. There are a whole host of horses in here with viable claims, this is a race which looks particularly strong, however Lyrical Poetry made me take notice in her barrier trial, and a chance will therefore be taken.
very useful, may well cause a shock in the coming weeks.
1.40 Leicester. Invigilate 2pts insurebet 3 places 10/11 bet365
Invigilate brings some solid form in here,
She has simply ran in to some smart types.
This looks considerably easier, and imo she has considerably more chance of winning, than she does unplacing.
easy win, today was the day.
2.15 Leicester flying secret. 1pt insurebet 3 places 5/4 hills/365
Flying secret made a promising debut, before on form figures alone, looking to dissappoint last time. That race was decent, Meu amor has come out and won a nursery off a fairly high looking introductory handicap mark, key Koy has gone close in a reasonable looking maiden and the 6f trip wasn’t to flying secrets strong points. Flying secret steps back up to 7f here, which should see him able to travel within his comfort zone, and allow his stamina to come in to play. Although Dimension is a very interesting and pricey newcomer, Flying secret imo is the one to beat.
ran in to a subsequent winner, may do well in nursery’s, at a lower grade
I advise to increase stakes on dragon symbol by a further 0.5 pts EW.
12th Sept. 2.20 Curragh Dragon Symbol 1.5pts EW 9/2 PP
Dragon Symbol is a confirmed runner in the flying 5 stakes at the curragh, and watching back both the last few renewals of this race, and dragon power himself. I am very keen that the stiff finish here will strongly suit him, I think he has a VERY solid chance, and subsequently I don’t want him to go to a price which rules him out for us, Therefore we will act now and pencil him in Antepost for the daily Bets.
Please note this is Ante-post therefore if he didn’t run, you will lose your stake.
ran very well, asked to go for home a shade to soon, however no excuses
1.33 Longchamp Highland Avenue 0.5 pts EW 4/1 sky/Hills…
Highland Avenue ran in the very strong St James Palace stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot.
Mostahdaf despite finishing almost last, actually franked the form of Highland avenue here, via travelling well while poorly placed on to the rail, he was snatched up by naamoos who rightly left no gap. Moshtahdaf would have been well in to the mix here, and a held up Highland Avenue was just that, with a clear run on the outside, seeing him mix it with the best 3yo milers around.
The Prix Guillaume D’ornano Stakes at deauville over todays trip was the next port of call, and it was a strong race imo. In contrast to his ride over a mile, Highland avenue, was made imo too much use of here early, in tracking the run away leader. Highland avenue did slightly fade in the final furlong, though as stated, he wasn’t ridden particularly efficiently, and the form is still of a solid standard.
The same run would see Highland Avenue capable of being in the mix at the finish, without tasman bay in here, a likely slower typical French early pace, and a sprint finish, could see Highland Avenue go very close.
poor tactics, made too much use of, I should have noted the cheek pieces,in that this was to be tactically inefficient.
1.40 Thirsk signorina merisi 12/1 bet365 0.25pts EW
Signorina merisi had previously been highly entered and has ran in some decent looking maidens. Absolutely no match for the winners of those races, she has been quietly going about her business, and building some experience over 6-7F.
While watching her races, I have always had the opinion, that she can improve over a longer trip, with a drop in grade.
That is just what she gets here, in a nursery off 73 over a mile. Whether it is today, or off a slightly lower mark in the near future, This is the right race, the right trip And I feel though signorina merisi will be capable of making her mark in handicap company.
ran very well, though today was the day.
4.20 Newcastle Leuven Power 1pt EW 5/1 PP (4 places)
Designer was noted last time before making her debut and subsequently ran an absolute stormer as a 125/1 shot In a race which has worked out very well. She is to be respected here, and at 12/1 It would be no real shock if she was to win.
However, it has always been my plan to back Leuven Power who caught my eye on debut and has been found a reasonable looking opportunity to open his account here.
He’s a good horse, ideally wants further in handicap company.
Thursday. 2.35 Salisbury intelligentsia 11/2 0.5 pts EW. (Hills)
Intelligentsia takes a leap up to Group 3 class in just her 2nd start, though I was personally very taken with her debut.
Where as the current fav is Pearl glory, I would not be worried about her, delamona may well be the one to beat, with perfect news being one that is likely to show improvement.
However Inteligentsia travelled beautifully through her race on debut, in a race which does have substance to it, I feel she should give a very good account of herself here. -1
bombed, write off entirely, and watch next time.
Ripon 1.00 Lucy lu 1 pt win 9/4 PP HILLS sky
Selbys pride has a rating of 75 and runs here of 8stone 12.
However from what I have seen to date, the 75 rating for selbys pride would be nonsense imo. Her main danger last time Lotus rose, reared in the stalls, and didn’t run her race.
Lucy lu gives away 9 pounds off a rating of just 76, so on paper would look to have it all to do. However she does have some substance to her form,
Every race she has ran in, has been stronger than this, with better horses making the running than is available here.
Despite the form of selbys pride being of a low standard, she has improved with each run, and her odds on price dictates that she clearly does have a legitimate chance here.
However i feel that Lucy lu, can be prominent and get the first run on the fav, which in contrast to the prices and ratings,
Will leave selbys pride with it all to do in the final furlong.
no excuses, beaten fair and square, and not to follow forward .
Ripon 3.05 FLOTUS 0.5pts EW 8/1 sky (4 places)
Hellomydarling is the one to beat here and sets a good standard, although not an unbeatable one.
She beat FLOTUS in the Albany, however Flotus who travelled well in to the race, was tenderly handled in the closing stages once beaten. The heavy ground their was not in her favour.
With ground very much to her liking, she ran in the group 2 duchess of Cambridge stakes, finishing 6th.
she had a good run through, with absolutely no excuses here, imo this was a strong race, and the performance was no disgrace
Dropped in trio to 5f next time at Newbury, she was again beaten fair and square, with a good run through, though imo she gave me the impression that should this have been 6F, she could have bettered her finishing position by 2 or 3 places here.
She is not an absolute world beater, however she doesn’t need to be to win this, there are horses here with sequences of wins, which have achieved less than flotus has in a higher grade.
The step back up to 6f here will strongly suit, the good ground holds no issues, and flotus has found a suitable looking listed race, where she will absolutely not be out of place.
The lesser competition here, will allow her to travel withing her comfort zone, where her finishing effort may be seen to better effect.
bolted up, can go back up in grade
1.50 goodwood hello you 9/2 1 pt EW hills (4 places)
Hello you has received 2 very poor rides the last twice, she needs to make all or atleast be bang on the pace over 6F.
However this is a step up to 7f and it looks fairly clear they have been riding her solely towards the step up in trip here.
she should go very well and I like her In a very competative race.
The same ride she received over 6f, wouldn’t look to hold any excuses over todays trip. She holds every chance here.
I think everyone can see what happened here, Rossa Ryan got stuck on the rail and rode in to a closing gap when going well, once switched round and booked for 3rd, he stopped riding before the Line to lose what would have looked to be her worse possible finishing position by a nose.
5.15 curragh. Champers elysees 3/1 1pt EW. (365)
Champers elysees was still going OK last time in a very strong race, where closed out and heavily eased, she has improved with each run this season, to a point where at this level without her penalty, any further improvement at all would see her go extremely close here. For this who use BFSB the extra place is a certain advantage you should use, though with less than 50% able to use. I will advise and record with 3 places.
ran very well here, just ran in to a useful 3yo, that wasn’t to be bettered on the day.
1.00 foss lass. lawful command 0.25 pts Ew 15/2 365 7/1 betfred.
from earlier this month on this thread in the race won by rizg
“Lawful command was a £50,000 purchase who should appreciate the step up in trip here, odds of 50/1 last time out with a last placed finish, would be enough to side step him here, however lookong forward, he is worth noting after this race, for a potential handicap debut over 7f+ which would look suitable. Having ran to date over 5f being buried out the back, unable to be involved”
this isn’t absolutely ideal, being 6f, however it is clear as night and day, that he has been ridden to get a mark. 7F we’d have gone higher stakes, 6f we will keep it simple.
ran very well, the step up to 7f next would suit
5.35 wolverhampton Sterling knight. 0.25 pts EW 13/2 Sky betv (4 places)
Sterling knight is now 4 pounds better of than flash Betty for a 1L defeat in a Nursery on their last start.
Sterling knight had previously been highly strung, and in need of a hood to line up, though in his last couple of races he has been more relaxed, and therefore he is now able to be ridden economically.
He got to flash Betty last time, though he was never able to pass her.
With a slightly more patient ride, he may be able to reserve a little more effort in the finish.
With the addition of mount rainier In this race, who is likely to bridge the gap to flash Betty, that may set up the race for sterling knight who should go well here.
ran very well, made a sweeping move and looked to be the winner, however went a shade early and couldn’t find more.
5.05 salsibury. Leuven power 5/1 0.5 pts Ew (various)
Leuven power is one that I have been waiting a long time for, and have briefly mentioned on this thread. he has been entered countless times without being declared and now finally gets unleashed in a race which unfortunately does look to be pretty strong for its type.
Although he is bred to be useful as a brother of the former very smart 2yo Supremacy, it has little to do with that. To leave it short, I have been lead to believe that Leuven power is a useful individual.
Kitaab, account and dark swansong, were all 5 figure purchases at the sales and are all to be respected, the latter is also highly entered.
Boafo boy won a decent looking novice stakes on debut where he was unfancied at 100/1 and is to be respected.
Hierarchy looks the one to beat on paper from those who have ran prior, he sets a strong standard having had the useful Tyson behind him in 3rd place last time.
In summary.. The form of Hierarchy sets quite a high benchmark for a debutant, The aforementioned dark swamsong stayed on well on debut, having been green in the early part of the race and is open to considerable improvement here.
However win or lose, I am lead to believe that Leuven power is above average, and a chance will be taken.
leuven power was a huge eye catcher here for me, I’m as happy as I can be for a losing bet, as I am extremely hopeful of making money on him. He was slowly away, and never had a chance in a solid field where he wasnt knocked about, I saw enough here in the finish, to think that he is useful. Very note worthy.
5.35 salisbury Black bird power 9/2 0.5 pts Ew bet365
Lot 722: Dark Angel (IRE) x Delevigne (GB)
SackvilleDonald’s Alastair Donald struck for the regally-bred DARK ANGEL filly consigned by Highclere Stud at 350,000 guineas. The filly is the first foal of the unraced REDOUTE’S CHOICE mare DELEVIGNE, the daughter of MODEL QUEEN and a sibling to the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup and Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest winner REGAL PARADE as well as the Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner ENTIFAADHA and the Group/Listed placed HOT PROSPECT and MOUNT HELICON.
“I loved her, she is my favourite filly in the sale,” said Donald. “We stretched a bit to get her, everyone was on her. She walks for fun, it is a lovely family to be involved with and there is probably more happening in it as well. She is for King Power Racing.”
she was very green, was positioned at the back on the rail, where she would have had to have been a graded horse to come through and win. The issue with backing debutants at his time of year, is that they are not precocious types, this was clear race course schooling, and she will undoubtedly come on for the run.
However absolutely no excuses and not good enough. We have done well out of debutants on a whole, and will now move on to 2yo’s who have ran prior, and ideally listed / group 3 races which are few and far between mid week.
DEXTER 0.25 pts EW 8/1 sky (5 places)
CRAZY MARTA 0.25pts EW 10/1 sky (5P)
Harowa and Martins spirit head the market, and possibly the standard, with both having some solid form coming in to this.
Harowa was beaten last time by a useful francois nicolle inmate, and with Mr Nicole knowing ehat it takes to beat Harowa, he sends Martins spirit here who has been very consistent in decent races without getting his head infront.
Martins spirit should be expected to go well here, he jumps and travels well, though imo he lacks conviction in the finish, and to date, has not put his head down and battled.
The aforementioned harowa is capable, and it’s only the prices that lead me to pass by.
Francois nicolle also runs Six one, who before last times very poor effort, would have been around a 13/2 chance for this, as it stands he’s likely to go off 20/1+ and bouncing back is plausible.
However the one from the yard that interests me, may not be first choice on jockey bookings, however comes into this race with some decent form, having 2 starts ago been well beaten in a Listed race behind kaskad coko that has worked out well.
DEXTER is still unexposed at this level, having made his handicap debut last time when coming 3rd, to a horse that was given a fairly soft lead and allowed to dictate. Dexter travelled well, and fought on well to the line, I feel he is open to further improvement, therefore a chance will be taken at the fair odds of 8/1.
Harowa also has a stablemate in here, CRAZY MARTA who although looks to have slightly gone of the boil since going chasing, it is not to be forgotten that this was at a higher level. She has been given a break, and reverts back to hurdles where she may well rediscover her prior form, which would see her involved here.
Dexter travelled well, it was only a matter of choosing when to go for home, he stuck on well to the line and won nicely.
3.35 york. Dragon symbol 6/1 0.5pts EW (5 places) sky
Suesa got a good run through and won the king george stakes at goodwood convincingly, there were no huge excuses for dragon symbol there, he ran very well, and finished his race well. I just feel that he is still improving and the increase of pace on here should strongly suit.
Golden pal will set the fractions here, he is an extremely smart horse, that is the one to catch.
Imo DRAGON SYMBOL coming off what is likely to be a very strong pace, can can finish his race off very well, where with a clear run, he may be able to collar golden pal on the Line.
ran very well, and the race I expected him to, the winner just ran beyond what I believed she would.
thur York 1.50 hello you 0.5pts EW 6/1 betv 11/2 hills
Hello you has been beaten twice by Sandrine, and particularly easily last time.
However tactically it was a very poor ride by Rossa Ryan.
whether he was under strict instruction or not, I’m not sure, but with hello you since changing yards, and still retaining her jockey, it would make sense.
She was out the track in a group of 3, that saw her pulling in behind the leader, and allowing Sandrine directly behind to be completely in her comfort zone, hello you switched down to the middle of the track, In a manner which could be described as likened to team orders in a formula 1 race, which just completely allowed Sandrine to pick up her position and open up in a straight line.
In summary Sandrine couldn’t have had the race set up any better, while hello you expended energy being restrained and maneuvered across the track.
This time could see hello you a whole lot closer at bare minimum, not for the 3 pounds swing in the weights, but for the reason that there will very likely be tactics applied that I strongly approve of.
Hello you Wears a hood for the first time here, and looks set to be allowed to do exactly what she wants, which is to bowl along from the front and attempt to make all.
She will give sandrine something to catch, however it will not be as plain sailing, as I believe sandrine will be out of her comfort zone and may need a passage through, where distance should be between them, rather than it being a straight forward task of tracking directly behind and hello you moving over to give her a clear run.
Sandrine may still win here, there is also a chance of a shade of misfortune in running where she may not quite get to hello you.
I am expecting rossa ryan to allow hello you to open up, and run in a straight line, without being restrained and expending energy, and therefore I do not see 3 horses in this field bettering the outcome, with a valid win chance for hello you.
hello you received a very poor ride, Identical to last time. She is far better than the result, and needs to be ridden more agressively.
Thur4.10 York Mr Mccann 20/1 0.5 pts EW sky/ hills
I have tried my best to put up a bet for Wed.. however I have been unable to find something suitable at current odds. however looking through Thursdays card Mr Mccann gives a whole lot of weight away, however is by far the best of these.
He has 5 pounds taken off by a claimer, and his form is very strong imo.
I am of the personal opinion that the best horses giving away weight are always at an advantage against lesser horses in receipt of weight.
Therefore even giving away a stone to the field, and handicapped to the hilt at odds of 20/1, His form has such strength and depth that i believe he is a capable of defying this welter burden and winning, in a race which imo looks set up for him to make all.
5.55 Leicester SOWS 0.25 pts EW 7/1 sky /boyles (4 places)
Sows went well of a ligh weight in a strong looking Nursery last time out.
She made use of the 3 pounds claim of Thore Hanson there, and is without that here.
however she has been dropped 2 pounds down to a mark of 75.
This race is undoubtedly competitive and tough, however for me its the standout race of the day, where I will be looking for improvement from sows over 6F, who has gained some valuable experience, while dropping to a reasonable Mark.
he ran very well, not being able to get to the lead cost him, no excuses here. Very solid run.
1.07 Newb KINDNESS 14/1 0.25pts Ew bet365
1.40 Newb ALVEDISTON 4/1 1pt EW bet365
2.10 Newb WANEES 7/1 1pt Ew bet365 / KINGDOM COME 8/1 1pt EW bet365
6.08 Newm DILLIAN 0.25 pts EW 25/1 bet 365
1.07 Newbury KINDNESS
Kindness is a real long shot here having finished a well beaten 9th on debut, she was nudged along and made little impression on debut, where she finished 1 place behind signorina merosini who I believe has a Maiden in her, the race in question was not set up for finishers with the winner having been allowed to dictate and make all.
kindness had no chance there and was tenderly handled in the closing stages, this was very much a learning exercise, where I belive she can come on for the run.
Her finishing position despite being 9th was no disgrace, having mixed it with what I interpret to be some reasonable fillys, therefore the improvement expected MAY well put her in to the mix for the places here.
Persist is ridiculously well Bred, Frankel x Persuasive, and holds a group 1 entry later in the season, she may well be a hard nut to crack, despite being a debutant. Though breeding doesn’t guarantee immediate success.
ran OK in a good race, no excuses here.
1.40 newbury ALVEDISTON cost £135,000 at the sales, and is one I have been waiting for, he has been been bought back by the part breeder, and has been given some smart entries, therefore I am lead to belive he is potentially very useful. William haggis has a decent 24% strike with with 2yos on turf this season.. the owner of alvediston has got off the mark with 3 of his 4 runners to date, with bay bridge, skulk and cloudy dawn all winners coming from the same source.
dissapointing, no excuses.
WANEES cost £325.000 at the tattersalls sale and has some notable entries.
Charles Hills only has a current strike rate of 9% for his 2yos this season, though fellow Royal Lodge entry sonny Liston absolutely bolted up on debut, and fellow dewhurst entry orazio went well in a Listed race despite being struck into, with a wound reported to his left fore only marking up his performance.
KINGDOM COME originally cost £340,000 at the sales, before moving on to his new owners for £500,000. He is a relation to the very useful miss yoda who won the Lingfield oaks trial, and finished 6th in the ribblesdale.
Clive Cox has a decent 18% strike rate with his 2yo’s on Turf this season and the owners of kingdom come do not mess around, they are most certainly quality over quantity, and will be hoping he goes well here.
Wanees was very tenderly handled, one to follow forward for sure.
6.08 newmarket DILLIAN is well Bred by Camelot out of debdebdeb. He was withdrawn from the sales to be retained by his breeder and put in training with Michael Bell, I am made to believe that he is pretty useful, he makes his debut here in a class 4 Maiden, and a chance will be taken depending on available odds.
Michael Bell has a 20% strike rate with 2yos on turf this season and Fellow Royal Lodge entry bolthole won nicely on debut very recently.
Ran very well, ran in to a couple of smart godolphin horses.
(Wed)Salisbuy 4.15 Gloria Mundi 5/1 1pt EW hills
Gloria mundi was very tenderly handled in the closing stages of the ribblesdale, where I am in absolutely no doubt that she could have bettered her finishing position if asked to do so. The form of that race is strong, even without the fact that she can certainly do better, therefore a chance will be taken on Gloria mundi here.
This race is of a Listed level in name, however i have seen weaker group 2s, so she will have to be on her A game here, however as mentioned I do like her, and I feel she is capable of winning what looks to be a very strong and competitive listed race.
Nottingham 1.55 Dayem 0.5 pts EW 4/1 sky/PP
Dayem Finished in-between the useful pair of dreams of thunder and so smart when running in a 5f Maiden at winner Windsor.
Dreams of thunder was a £210,000 breeze up purchase and has an entry in the lowther, where as so smart is an early precocious juvenile who cost £70,000 as a yearling, and holds a 2yo trophy entry. The above pair set a good standard to be in and around, therefore dayem seems to have stepped up markedly on his form, with a mark of 73 looking very fair for his drop in class to handicap company.
Burning Bush has the “sexy” form figures, however a rise of 6 pounds to 77 would see him very beatable here by a less exposed rival.
The trip here would look to pose no threat to dayem, where stepping back up to 6f could well see him figure prominently at the finish here.
diddnt run his race, put a line through it.
3.35 Ayr Breaking light. 0.5pts EW 8/1 sky/365
BREAKING LIGHT cost £182,000 at the Arqana sales, and is a full sister to the french 1000 Guineas second coeur de beaute.
She is sired by the very smart dabirsim who won the group 1 prix morny and the Jean luc lagardere as a 2yo.
His other most notable prodgeny to date would Albany stakes winner different league, as well as one time Jersey Stakes fav Celestin.
Her damn Twilight Tear is a sibling of 2 time French winner shariq, and group 3 placed coeur de pierre.
Merlins lady is also a debutant for Kevin Ryan, and cost a huge £320,000 at the Tattersall sales. She is full sister to the aiden obrien trained Royal Ascot winner and Prix De L’ Arc De Triomphe runner Hunting Horn. Aswell as a relative of Group 2 Beresford stakes winner David Livingston.
The standard already set by those who have ran is by the 76 rated miss calculation, and the 73 rated Chelsea annie who have both already won this season.
This is a fair standard set, though is not unattainable for a debutant.
Therefore the well bred breaking light has a profile of which I belive should be shorter than the available odds of 8/1 and a chance will be taken.
Ran very well,will be found in the market now.
4.50 Haydock Laheg NR
Laheg scoped poorly when he was set to make his debut at newmarket previously and I was set to put him up then,
Prior to this I had watched him breeze at the Arqana sales where a friend of mine was one of the underbidders due to receiving a recommendation.
Laheg was consigned by Thomond O’mara of knockanglass stables, who has sent many smart horses through the sales, with Goodwood cup winner Trueshan being the latest of many to succeed at the highest level.
Laheg is sired by the very smart dabirsim who won the group 1 prix morny and the Jean luc lagardere as a 2yo.
His most notable prodgeny to date would be coeur de beaute who finished a close 2nd in the french 1000 guineas, as well as Albany stakes winner different league, and one time Jersey Stakes fav Celestin.
Lahegs dam is a fill sister to the useful French listed winner Coco city.
Another investment was a £65,000 purchase at the breeze up sales.
Clarets glory cost £30,000 as a yearling and Has a redcar 2yo trophy entry
Incrediblis was a £25,000 purchase at the breeze ups and is related to the lowly rated pair of ketchup and truffle mac who are 0-9
Jackks groove cost £37,000 as a yearling and holds a redcar 2yo trophy entry.
“He’s owned by John Dance and is a nice colt by Profitable. He’s a half-brother to Astro Jakk who’s won five times for us.”
Vintage choice has opened up as fav here and cost a huge £310,000 as lot 317 in book 1 of the tattersalls sales and is relation to the the yards former listed winner and German 1000 Guineas runner crystal fizz.
He is to be very highly respected here.
Glittering choice is 1 of 2 runners for Tom dascombe and holds a redcar trophy entry.
“I had the pleasure of training her dam and John Brown and Diane his wife have done a job of breeding horses at a lower level. She is still backward and I wouldn’t be sure when you would see her”
Tom dascomes 2yos have all taken a run this season, even the precious types such as flamim rib and so smart. I have attached some quotes after the run of flamin rib.
“He is one of the colts who I thought was on the button and if we were going to have a first time out two-year-old winner I thought it would be him or So Smart. They were mentally sharp but when they got to the races, they just got stage fright. He ran below expectation but that doesn’t mean the expectation isn’t still there”
Rainbow colours is a relation to gimcrack and middle park stakes winner Amadeus wolf, aswell as the group 3 winner rouleau who was also only beaten a nose in a UAE 2000 Guineas trial.
She is to be highly respected here.
Marco botti has a useful looking 2yo on his hands already with Encountered, who bolted up recently at Doncaster. Homework unfortunately doesn’t always translate to the race course, however from what I’m lead lead believe, he may have another useful one here in the £105,000 purchase LAHEG.
Win or lose, I feel this is the right opportunity to up stakes .
This is quite a ballsy move, as Laheg may well drift here, and the opposition may be useful.
However I have waited as long as I possibly can, and with fear of not being able to post the bet at all should he shorten, The time is now.
With an extra place available on this race with skyB, it would be very advantageous to use the concession.
1.35 cork. Ernest Rutherford 0.25 pts EW 6/1 PP sky….
Ernest Rutherford has recieved an entry for the Group 3 mill reef stakes.
Being irish trained by a yard that has a huge ammount of options for 2yos would make this entry very notable.
The other entry for the yard in the mill reef is Twighlight Jet who broke his Maiden tag before running well in the Norfolk stakes at Royal Ascot, and running a stormer in the railway stakes.
He has been entered alongside his useful stablemate Moneytree each time.
His trainer the 32 yo Michael O’Callaghan is a man going places, from Growing up in a housing estate, to obtaining a pilots license in his own time And now becoming a racehorse trainer with over 50 horses, operating out of a yard that produced 12 Classic winners.
It would be no suprise to see the yard come across another smart 2yo, and Ernest Rutherford would have to be just that to win here on debut.
As lot 234 he moved well at the Goresbridge breeze up sales and was subsequently picked up by O’Callaghan for £47,000.
Memory motel cost £120,000 at the sales, and may well go underestimated here. Her form figures are poor, however the substance of the races she has ran in have been of a good standard, she had been keen and buzzy on debut, and lead over a longer trip last time.
This drop back to 5F will strongly suit imo, and she is not to be dismissed lightly. However this is a tall order.
Drumbeg banner ran in the same race last time and finished infront of memory motel, however imo this drop in trip to 5F wouldn’t look ideal, and the form may be reversed. It’s hard to see a win here imo.
Futurity stakes entry Hms endeavour is another to have ran there, he finished infront of the above pair in 3rd having drifted markedly from 11/10 out to 9/2. He took a keen hold there and ran very well. The drop in trip to a flat 5F here will strongly suit him, he looks useful, and is the obvious one to put it up to orinoco River who sets a strong standard.
Orinoco River drops markedly in grade, she has already all but won her Maiden on debut, when the very useful YET fought back to beat her a neck.
Orinoco River has kept very strong company since.
She ran well in the Queen Mary, and gave subsequent stakes winner ladies church something to think about in her Maiden.
Last time out, do not read into the form figures at all, she stumbled badly 2f out, whilst held right up in a strong race, her chance was instantly gone and she was tenderly handled to come home in her won time. She had been heavily backed in from odds of 9/1<7/2.
Orinoco River, with a rating of 92 will take all of the beating here with no penalty attached, Hms Endeavour should step up markedly from debut and would look the obvious one to put it up to her.
Memory motel has an outside chance of being involved here, likewise the debutant Ernest Rutherford who has a tough ask on debut for a yard who have invested heavily in 2yo’s.
ERNEST RUTHERFORD is priced up a shade shorter than I though he would be, in all reality, it looks to be a task to take 3rd here, however the ground conditions may close the gap, with prodgeny of his sire Ardad showing an affection for softer ground.
Travelled well, diddnt see out his race, came on for rhe run to win shortly after.
4.55 cork thunderkiss 0.5pts EW 9/2 PP sky…
Thunder kiss Props up the weights at 10 stone here, however deservedly so. .
Form with insinuendo, silence please, true self and cadilac, shows that she is now a solid graded performer.
She has stepped up on her form from last season markedly, with a new rating of 105 a testament to her admirable consistency.
Dermot welds has won the last 2 renewals of this race with the extremely smart tarnawa, He runs 2 here.
Federica Sophia has shown consistency, her mark of 100 has increased with each race, and I would back that with the personal opinion that she has been showing considerable improvement.
She warrants considerable respect here, and is open to further improvement.
While im contrast her 107 rated stablemate mate amma grace has the highest rating of the field, however ran a stinker last time off a long break.
What she had done beforehand has achieved this rating, however that was almost a year ago, and i don’t buy it atm. She is best watched here.
La petite Coco and willow recieve a fair bit of weight here.
The latter has always been highly rated, and had been expected to be an oaks filly.
Imo She has stepped up markedly throughout the season, and is somewhat fulfilling her potential now. She is not to be underestimated.
Likewise la petite Coco who was just held by willow when well fancied for the Naas oaks trial. She backed this market support up when making a mockery of the 101 rated kalapour and subsequent winner Talacre.
Thunderkiss sets a good standard here she gives away weight all round, and is sure to be closely involved. Federica Sophia receives 3 pounds from thunder kiss and has improved with each run do date, she needs to step up further, but her profile suggests she could well do, which outs her in with a fair shout here
The 3yo La petite Coco is undoubtedly smart, and has very obvious claims of both being very strongly involved here AND reversing the form with willow.
willow is not to be underestimated, she is still capable of stepping up on last times effort and causing a shock.
ran very well, ran into a very smart horse.
6.08 newmarket razzle dazzle 8/1 bet365. 0.25 pts EW. Viadelamore 12/1 0.25pts EW
To my annoyance, this looks red hot, and we could easily run in to a couple here.
Razzle dazzle and viadelamore are well entered up, with both having a champagnes stakes entry.
The former is a home bred, being a relation to the useful wise glory, his entry im the champagne stakes is 1 of 7 for Richard hannon who has some very smart performers on there, he doesn’t tilt and windmills, therefore razzle dazzle is to be respected here.
Viadelamore was a £120,000 purchase for a trainer and owners who have another decent 2yo in the yard el bodegon. So they should have a fair line on what is required here.
The charlie appleby trained Hafit cost an astonishing £2,100,000 at the sales and is a relation to Joseph o’briens Bright Idea.
There was an extended bidding war between godolphin and coolmoore, hence the sale price that is simply hard to quantify.
he will be attempting to take home a share of £10,100 here.
“He’s a lovely horse who’s obviously by Dubawi,” said Stroud after signing the session-topping docket. “He moves incredibly well and comes from a very good stud. Collectively we really liked him. It just shows you, when a nice horse comes into the ring, there are still people there for these collectors’ items.”
Laasudood is related to some smart winners, and is one to respect highly.
Millennial mood is supremely well Bred, could be anything and another who deserves respect.
Razzle dazzle and viadelamore do not have the “sexy” breeding as most of these, their price tag would be amongst the mid to lower end, such is the stud fee of both Dubawi (250k) and war front ($250k).
Therefore This looks a big ask on paper.
However a Huge price tag does not guarantee automatic success, and the future entries of the above pair, would dictate me to take note.
Razzle Dazzle would look out of place with a champagne stakes entry, if he wasn’t capable of going well here, his stablemates that surround his entry are amongst the best 2yos in the country at this trip, therefore I would lean his way and have a very small play ew here on a quiet day.
It is worth noting, that I do want to move on from maidens to listed and graded races at this time of year, however the race program dictates a lack of options midweek, and this weekend which holds the shergar Cup. Luckily we have a few options with debutants I have had noted, to fill the gap.
Leopardstown 5.50. Collins Street 0.25 pts EW 12/1 pp
3rd placed finisher Micromoon has come out and franked the form of a Dundalk barrier trial over 7f where her stablemate Collins Street lead a 1-2-4 for Joseph O’brien.
Collins Street fly leapt the stalls and made all, with nicromoon held right up in last place.
Micromoon was ridden turning and headed by the prominent 2nd throughout classic archie (who was a £58,000 purchase as a yearling), The pair were neck and neck all the way to the line, with micromoon prevailing by a nose at the finish. The pair were around 2L clear with bright moment unable to pick up along side them, and micromoon staying on well enough despite being unable to get involved. The way in which Collins Street stuck at the task, suggests that the step up in trip by 2f should be no issue here.
In the race in which micromoon franked the form, she finished 2nd beaten 4.5L by the useful 92 rated miramis who just needed hands and heels to win here,
The 3rd Golden Lyric is a 76 rated filly which despite costing £350,000 (and finishing a close 2nd beaten behind the now 105 rated Belle image) has been hard to win with. However having showed consistency, her mark in the mid 70s would look to be reliable and make the achievements of micromoon look a fair debut effort.
Its a shame that Dermot Welds Bora Bora who is set to make his debut here, was a non runner in rhe aforementioned barrier trial. Bora Bora is a relation to 6 winners with the 100+ rated beach Belle arguably the pick of them.
Handel come in here with a rating of 85 which clearly sets the standard, he has been placed on his last 4 races, whilst looking like todays step up in trip will surely suit him. He is most certainly the one to beat.
It was notable that in the last race of race of Pierre Precieuse, there were 2 well-bred Moyglare Stud-owned fillies, both making their debuts with Oisin Orr’s mount,Tina Angelina, very well backed from 11/2 into 2/1 and bolting up.
The Colin Keane-partnered Pierre Precieuse disspointed, however still featured in post race quotes.
“The other filly is a lovely filly but probably wants a lot more ease in the ground than she had today. Both are beautifully bred fillies who will progress nicely as the year goes on”
Therefore Any ease in the ground conditions would be note worthy here for Pierre Precieuse, who was tenderly handled and is likely considerably better than she showed last time.
The rest of the field holds plenty of lightly raced horses open to further improvement, such as Jim bolgers premium ticket who stepped up from his debut last time out, and breaker of chains who made a very satisfactory introduction recently at curragh where he was just behind a 77 rated rival off levels.
It is undoubtedly a tough ask, however Collins Street on his racecourse debut under rules, may well be able to put his barrier trial experience to good use and potentially be involved here at the finish.
2.40 Yarmouth. City Runner 0.5 pts EW 7/1 bet365
Mick channon is in horrendous form being 0-45 with just a handful of places,
He runs a debutant pneumatic In a strong novice stakes today, even though he had an entry for a fairly weak looking newcomers race in in few days time,
This may be a slight hint, with Pneumatic holding an entry for the mill reef stakes. The yards other 2yo to run with this entry is wonderful world who has finished a solid 2nd to the Windsor castle winner chipotle, and a subsequent close 3rd at Bath. Pneumaticnis is to be respected at likely huge odds and I wouldn’t knock.anyone for taking a very small chance, in a race where a strong standard is set by what I was assuming was going to be the front 2 in the market.
The front pair just mentioned, was assumed to be Dig two and city runner who both also hold Mill reef entries, dig two has ran plenty of times and sets a very high 96 rated standard for a class 4 event, he is obviously the one to beat here and will be a strong fav. City Runner has ran in to some useful sorts on his 2 starts to date, the form of his debut has been franked, the 3rd has recently won a Nursery off a mark of 71, and orazio who beat him, finished a close 3rd in a Listed event.
On city runners 2nd start he finished infront of the useful penywern taverner who I believe is useful, to steal our Ew money, with 2nd sed marrib following up since. This gives a decent look to the form, and in receipt of 9 pounds he holds viable claims.
Like the aforementioned Pneumatic Rizg is also a newcomer here with lofty entries, his trainer Roger varian has 2 entries for the champagne stakes, bassinet boy a debutant who very easily won on debut in a class 4 novice race at Newbury at odds of 9/1. And broadspear also a debutant who finished 2nd to the smart looking fellow champagne stakes entry seattle King, with the pair pulling 6L clear.
Rizg doesn’t have a champagne stakes entry, however that gives us a handle that Roger Varians group entries for debutants aren’t general optimism.
Rizg holds a mill reef entry as one of 3 for the stable.
Fellow entry Leuven power is noted and has entry on Sunday where he will be considered.
The other entry mitbaahy recently bolted up in a class 4 Maiden to stronger enhance the fine record of varians 2yos that are entered highly outside of sales races.
Rizg has opened up at 7/2 which is less than half the price i thought he would, he deserves respect here.
Outside of the big 2, Thunder Valley is a £46,000 debutant purchased as a yearling, the trainer, owner and breeder all warrant some respect.
Good to go has no chance here, with patient man looking to have little.
Lawful command was a £50,000 purchase who should appreciate the step up in trip here, odds of 50/1 last time out with a last placed finish, would be enough to side step him here, however lookong forward, he is worth noting after this race, for a potential handicap debut over 7f+ which would look suitable. Having ran to date over 5f being buried out the back, unable to be involved.
The debutant Irish millions is a £60,000 yearling who is a relation to the smart Neebras, who finished just over 2L behind Frankel in a vintage renewal of the st James place stakes where zoffany and excelebration were just infront, Dream Ahead, Dubawi Gold, and now super sire wooten basset were in behind.
Irish millions is another worthy of respect here on debut.
A chance will be taken on city runner, with the fav highly respected, and the above record giving possibility that a useful newcomer could well be in the field here.
However at 7/1 on city runner, he is considerabky over priced an hard to get away from
3.27 sligo shinkansen 1pt EW 7/2 bet365
Shinkansen has ran in considerably better company than the rest of the filed here.
He was dropped 3 pounds for finishing almost last in a strong nursery last time.
His form figures of 7th prior, at a glance looks poor, however I do like that race considerably.
Rightly or wrongly I am of the personal opinion that the 3rd there Shark Bay is a smart horse accrueing experience whilst waiting to make his mark. Despite not winning a Maiden in 2 starts, I am
keen on him, to a point that i expect him to get off the mark shortly, and not be out of place in group company by the end of the season.
Therefore despite a 7th place finish for shinkansen, imo there is substance to the form to take forward.
Shinkansens current mark of 77 looks good in this contest, with the 7 pounds taken off him only bettering his claims.
Despite top weight of 10 stone, shinkansen should be hard enough to beat. Hot sunset looks the chief danger here, he has some solid looking form behind quick suzy, silver surfer and daisy peers. In receipt of 10 pounds from shinkansen he is to be highly respected.
Shinkansen off top weight is the one for me, despite form figures of 77 in his last 2 races, with first time blinkers applied and a 7 pound claimer onboard here, imo he should be going close here to having a 1 proceding the 77.
1.15 Naas Magical Lagoon 0.5pts EW 17/2 PP
Magical Lagoon cost £305,000 as a yearling, being a relation to the extremely smart former German raider Novellist
She has already accrued some race course experience privately at Dundalk.
Where In her barrier trial, She Tracked the leaders throughout going well, was Ridden to challenge turning in at the 2F marker,
Then Picked up well to have a sustained dual with the grey voices of angels, magical lagoon just edged ahead at the line with the pair were well clear of Que Linda.
Voices of angels has come out and finished a very good 2nd in her Maiden to the highly rated concert hall who they are quited as looking at the Group 2 Debutante with.
Shamiyana back in 3rd also holds a debutante entry, plus the moyglare. The 4th Panama red has her form tying in nicely to DABANA who runs here today, who herself ran in a reasonably strong looking maiden where the 2nd nectaris has since followed up.
this contest is likely to throw up plenty of future winners. Dabana holds a Group One and a Group 2 entry. Gaire Os Ard has the same Group One Moyglare entry and The Algarve is a sister of Group One winner Van Gogh, with her having debutante and moylare entries herself.
Graded horses Bounce the blues won this last year with listed winner just wonderful finishing 2nd, so I would noting the winner and those in behind of this years renewal which looks red hot.
A chance will be taken on Magical Lagoon to put to use the experience gained in her barrier trial where she stuck at it all the way to the line to beat a rival who looks useful in her own right.
We could easily be running in to graded horses here, such as the profile of half of the field, but I have seen nothing to think that magical lagoon herself will not be a stakes horse, of which she will have to be to win this.
4.10 goodwood ring of beara 6/1 0.5pts EW bet365.
The son of Wooton basset cost £200,000 as lot 837 at the tattersalls October yearling sales. He holds a future Group 2 champagne stakes entry.
I am a real fan of the sire and Ryan Moore is jocked up on debut.
The owners have invested this season at the higher end, and have the likes of canters well with Joseph o’brien.
I think they have done some good business, and expect the results to follow.
This all coupled with the group 2 entry he holds, convinces me to be taking a small chance here on debut with ring of beara, who I’m hopeful will go close in this Maiden.
4.00 Galway Gamin original 0.25 pts EW 11/2 bet365/hills
Gamin original was 2nd In a French AQPS bumper behind the high rated Gauloise, before going on to win one in his own right, and join Willie mullims for a fee of €100,000.
He is a relation to the very smart French national hunt horses THE STOMP who is a 7 time graded or listed winner for Francois Nicolle.
Gamin original was the choice of Paul townend on debut starting in the grade 3 that his stablemate Burning Victory won, before going on to win the Triumph.
He has more recently ran in a Maiden off the back of a 15 month break, where very well backed. He was ridden from the front with utmost confidence, but weakened markedly in the closing stages on heavy ground.
That was a fair race, and with the cobwebs blown off, and the Group conditions not being as testing, I would expect significant improvement.
Both the money for him previously, and him being the pick in the grade 3, would leave me to belive that he is showing a fair bit at home, which is backed up by the trainer quotes, and indeed in this case, does Match his profile.
“We have two in the 2 mile maiden hurdle. Gamin Original (Paul) hasn’t transferred his homework to the track but if he did he would be more than good enough to win today. Purple Mountain (Patrick) has schooled nicely and has a decent chance if he can transfer his bumper form to hurdles. He will like this ground”
A very small chance will be taken here on what I belive looks a pretty poor days racing, in terms of betting propositions.
Goodwood 3.35 Duhail 0.25pts EW @ 33/1 Various.
Age – 7 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, 5 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older
Price – 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 7/12 winners won on their last run before the Sussex Stakes, 12/12 winners had their last run with the last 43 days
4/12 winners ran in the St James’s Palace Stakes (Ascot) on their last run, 3 of the 4 won, 1 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Queen Anne Stakes (Ascot) on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Goodwood, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Goodwood
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 8 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over 8 furlongs
Previous Flat Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous flat runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous flat wins
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 120 or higher
Group 1 Wins – 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous group 1 win
Group 1-3 Wins – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a group 1-3 race
Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
I have always planned on backing duhail here, this is without question a very, very tall order, however I spotted this race for him as very suitable for him early on as mentioned prior.
I wasn’t expecting the best of the fillies to run here, and I was also considering Antepost in hope of the ground conditions that have arrived, thinking the race might cut right up to under 7 runners, and to still have 3 places on him.
As it happens, the race is absolutely red hot, and the place terms are pretty poor.
Duhail is crying out for the step back up in distance, he should handle the ground conditions, and he’s going to be placed in behind the leaders, and switch out where I belive he will get 1 run at it.
he doesn’t have an instantaneous change of gear, however it is sustained, and I have pictured him in my mind for some time coming off the bridle to find more and cause a big shock in a Group 1, maybe not as deep as this.
Everything has lined up for him to travel to England and run here, he is at the price I wanted, I am happy with the conditions, he has had a decent prep and there are absolutely no excuses, that said, we are not going overboard with the stakes, as I am likely going to be dissapointed with the result here such is the task in hand.
All I want is a strong pace, and for him to get a clear run so I can be satisfied with the result either way.
a very small chance will be taken here on duhail at 33/1 where I am optimistic that a return is possible.
For those who like to look forward in terms of Antepost….
Next Run –
6 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after the Sussex Stakes, 0/12 placed on their next run
4/12 winners ran in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Ascot) on their next run, 3 of the 4 won, 0 placed
4.45 Goodwood. Monets sunrise 0.25 pts EW 11/1 hills sky 365.
Monet’s Sunrise cost £90,000 as a yearling and reportedly works well.
He has been for a recent Racecourse gallop at Newbury.
had intended to put him up for his Maiden last week having been declared to run at sandown last Thursday, however he was taken out due to being still a little sore from his recent exercise
Having chosen to give him a shade more time, he has sealed his place here which does look a tougher race, with plenty here commanding lofty fees and bred in to the purple.
He will hopefully bring his homework to the track and acquit himself well here, he has a fair bit of pace, needs to settle, however a chance will be taken for him to make a mark on debut.
I had started writing out a whole race card, however day 1 is particularly tough imo, with close calls to be made. I am a huge fan of space blues, and will be watching on hoping he wins without a bet. This race looks to be a match between himself and his stablemate, who I also really like.
Any drift to 11/4 or higher on space blues, and I will be having a lumpy EW bet, though as above I am not expecting that to happen, and can happily watch.
The other to note is Santiago who received a piss poor ride in the Gold Cup, I am not happy with the place terms of 3 places and belive that his price reflects his chances, however I do think he is capable of being involved for the minor places 3/4th. I am not one for complaining about rides or misfortune, however His ride by Heffernan at Ascot was terrible at best, it is well worth watching back.
I am always been a big fan of Spanish mission who should be closely involved, however I would not be shocked if santiago showed his last time outs performance up to be the piss poor ride of which it was, and he managed to bounce back respectably here.
3.00 Goodwood Space blues 2pts EW 11/4 (4 places) sky
I am a huge fan of space blues, he finishes his races very well, and this is his ideal trip.
I am more than happy to forgive his run last time at meydan, as I elected to take him on due to the 6f trip on fast ground.
He is a very smart individual, who has strong claims of going back to back in this race and I would be extremely dissapointed if he was out of the 4 places available here.
1.45 Ayr Dynamic force 0.5 pts win 11/4 sky/ Betv
Robert Cowell bought Royal Ascot winner Prince Of Lir for the same price (£170,000) from the same sale, from the same consignor (Bansha House)
Who have sold the winners of 24 Group 1 races over the years, a record that’s almost certainly second to none.
He is by far and away the most expensive horse MIddleham Park Racing have ever purchased at public auction, he reportedly works well from the in training videos I have watched, as well as my personal view from his breeze. A Small chance will be taken.
2.10 Newcastle. Kuwait warrior. 11/2 bet365 0.25pts EW
Kuwait warrior was given some bold quotes within an early season stable tour that I had noted. This is not enough to back him blind, and I was going going let him slide by, however if you break down this race, then it does look winnable and I’m willing to have a very small play here.
KUWAIT WARRIOR (Ribchester ex Mousse Au Chocolat)
“He’s a later developing sort, big and scopey and reminds me very much of his dad. We didn’t really do too much with him until the middle of the season and it could be the same with this fellow. He’s a great moving horse and the lads are mad about him”
Tricky business ran in to a couple of reasonable horses last time, it was a class 5 and he was comprehensively held, so you’d be dissapointed if he won this.
Arnside dwelt, was pushed along, and its hard to see him figuring for a place.
Teddy’s profit is a debutant that had no mention in Karl burks stabletour, he has had no lofty entries, or future entries. He cost £37,000 as a yearling and is related to 2 horses that are 0-14 combined. Best watched .
Freddy Robinson. I rate his debut run, which he looked to be crying out for a trip behind some smart sorts. Last time he didn’t build upon that effort, and was a shade dissapointing in a fair race. This looks easier, and he’s just about the one to beat.
Sky breeze was £58,000 at the breeze ups in April. I would always have to respect the breeze up horses that have commanded a few quid, as they’re usually straight and ready for their race course debut, and ultimately capable of making an immediate impact. Below are some brief trainer quotes that would suggest he could be involved.
“there are two debutants this week in the very different shapes of Rich King and Skye Breeze, both of whom have been working extremely well and we hope for bold shows”
In summary freddy Robinson looks capable of winning a Maiden and may well be the one to beat, the debutant sky breeze is worthy of respect and could well come in to calculations here, however Kuwait Warrior who cost £40,000 as a yearling and has been highly touted by connections, will be given a very small EW chance to back up his trainers remarks.
1.40 Gowran Redbud 0.5 pts EW 10/1 bet365
Redbud cost £38.000 last year at the goffs Orby sale, she is a relation to the smart 96 rated lost Eden.
Redbud has 2 notable entries, the Ballyhane Stakes which horses do somewhat get a general entry for, and the Group 2 Debutante which usually commands entries of which have been showing a fair bit at home.
Her trainer has 3 in the debutante,
Mannix who has ran in to 2 very smart colts and achieved a fair bit in his 2 places.
Hermana estrella who won a Group 3 on debut beating the smart Royal ascot winner quick suzy
And ofcourse Redbud who now makes her debut.
Her entry for the Debutante, that doesn’t seem to be a block entry what so ever, commands a fair bit of respect from me here. Therefore a chance will be taken EW at odds of 10/1.
6.22 newmarket fall of Rome. 1 pt insure bet 3 places 2/1 sky (money back if placed.
Tyson has gone up 2 pounds after finishing a very close 2nd on his handicap debut last time. He looks to be the chief danger to our selection, His form is solid and he holds very valid claims here.
Mahagoni went very close last time on his handicap debut, he is also worthy of respect here and should be involved.
Fall of rome has ran in to some smart types on all 3 of his starts to date, he has been previously highly entered over in Ireland, and his opening handicap mark of 83 seems very reasonable to me.
He has been settling better with each start, and steps up to 7f after staying on well last time. This looks a good opportunity for him to potentially get his head infront here, with me struggling to see him out of the 3.
won well, not one to follow forward uo in the weights.
6.15 cork Money Tree. 0.5 pts EW 10/1 various
Money tree holds an entry for the Molecombe stakes at Goodwood that takes place 5 days after this race.
Steel Bull did pretty much exactly the same double for these connections in 2020.
Her lofty entry itself is worthy of respect, Therefore a chance will be taken on money tree who will be wanting to go well here, if she is to justify his entry fee for the molecomb.
We may well even follow up on her shortly, should she win the first leg and make the trip across the irish sea.
ran very well,and followed up at short odds.
5.20 naas dickiedooda 0.5 pts EW 4/1 (5 places) PP.
This race is extremely competitive, Teresa mendoza comes in here with some solid prior form to her name. However She did badly dissapoint last time in France, going off favourite for a very winnable Listed race on very soft ground.
Prior to that she had finished infront of some useful types such as Jessica harringtons loch lein.
The best in at the weights dickiedooda also has strong claims here and will be competitive, she has been a model of consistency and deserves respect
Tereza mendoza if you completely disregarded her last run, would imo have the pick of the form here, quarantine dreams who split herself and loch lein, has been kept back for a group 3 in the near future.
The winner romantic proposal had already
gone extremely close in a group 3 race prior, and has subsequently ran a stormer in a group 2 very recently.
However i am unable to disregard the last run of tereza mendoza in France, as it is just not figured in to the prices at all here, so that would lead me to have to look else where.
Today’s race is a very competative listed race, The strength In numbers here with all horses capable and deserving of their place in the field, do leave us needing a shade of luck in running, However with all of this taken into consideration it is the consistency of dickiedooda who has been in fine form this season, that stands out.
Dickiedooda has been extremely generous once off the bridle and has been running all the way to the line, she looks to have shown considerable improvement since we backed her at Bath on her seasonal debut, and with her desire to win, she deserves to get her head infront.
She holds very valid claims of being bang there at the finish, the 5 places on offer for EW bets, would make her a betting proposition, that with what she finds off the bridle, imo is almost a free bet at the win.
she ran very well, I personally thought she was going to win, in the final furlong.
1.55 ffos lass Mount rainier 6/1 0.5 pts EW extra 4 places bet365
She was dissapointing on debut, then has been tried fairly highly since comparatively to some of these. The 68 rated lucky shake who has shown consistency through her races to me shows that Mount rainier has improved from her debut, on to her 2nd run.
Last time out, she stepped up in Grade to a decent looking class 4 novice stakes, and was buried out the back to achieve a lenient looking opening mark of 58, with Thore Hanson claiming another 3 pounds here.
In summary, I think she has been well placed to achieve a handicap mark last time, and she can build upon back what she did on her second start, I feel she is capable of winning off her mark, and subsequently would be very dissapointed if she is out of the 4 here.
Won very nicely, as hoped due to her handicap mark given. She never looked like there was a possibility that she would be out of the frame.
2.30 ffoss lass moqadama 9/2 0.5 pts EW extra 3 places bet365
Moqadama was a £390,000 purchase as a yearling, and is a relation to the same connections Khaadem and richard hannons log out island who were both smart 2yos. The standard already set here is one that is achievable for a debutant.
Sayf Al dawla the short priced fav, cost £525,000 is a relation to the very smart elerqam, and the useful maydany, Cameron noble claims 3 pounds, and it will be interesting to see how he goes here on debut.
However at the prices, a chance will be taken on moqadama who is well Bred, and is capable of making her presence known here.
Ran very well, just couldn’t get to leader.
4.55 balinrobe. Witham River to place 1pt Evens (3 places) hills/BF
Witham River is 5 pounds better off with flying hawaian than their recent meeting, the extra 1 and a half furlongs would also look to help Witham River on that showing.
I wouldn’t want to back Witham River in a match bet between the 2, however it is arguable that it could go either way here with the revised terms and trip.
I do think that is amongst the pick of the form here, therefore the place market becomes of Interest with effectively odds of even money for litham River to beat one of flying hawaian, moss tucker or manwal,
Flying hawaian as above, may beat us. Moss tucker has some fair form and has been consistent, last time yester a gelding who finished 3L behind W.R and F.H had managed to better him, so we have a fair chance of doing so also. Manwal beat a useful horse of dermot welds when 66/1 last time, having shown nothing the time before, the pace of optimistic belief and siofra there, was strong enough that the race seemed to fall apart, and Manwal who had been scrubbed along, stayed on well to take second, with those who were prominent weakening late.
In summary, with the extra 1 and a half furlongs here, I believe Witham River will be held up, although moss tucker and in particular flying hawaian will have first run, Witham River and manwal will be ridden and should find off the bridle behind, i believe that what witham River will find , will be enough to pick up a place here late on.
whether he manages to pick up flying hawaian to win is somewhat possible, however irrelevant, he just has to beat one of the 3 above.
I make him a 4/6 shot to do so, so evens is a bet here, even if it is just 1pt. To keep us ticking over.
he ran tactically as I hoped they would run him in his prior race, over the shorter trip, the place never looked in doubt.
3.55 curragh inisuendo 2.5pts @ 9/5 insurebet 3 places betfred. Or 7/4 with bet365 (money back if placed)
Create belief has been give a mark of 110 after her Sandringham rout, she receives weight, and if that mark is true, this would be a near foregone conclusion. However I do not believe that mark what so ever, as some key horses were non runners there due to the conditions, and the conditions itself played a part in the outcome and winning margin.
Imo inisuendo has amongst the very best form in the book coming in to this race, the way she has travelled through her races, with the tactics applied to get the longer trip, hasn’t seen her in quite her very best light.
The drop in trip to 9F, plus what I’m very much assuming will be more positive tactics than sitting stone last, would imo seek improvement here.
It’s only very minor improvement that she needs to win, and imo she would have to have an off day not to place here.
I expect her to go very close here, and i would be very dissapointed if she finished out of the 3.
won easily, very smart performance.
Newbury 1.50 Solid Stone 1pt EW 11/2 4 places (hills/BFSB)
Solid Stone ran well in the wolferton, he carries his fair share of weight here and there are unexposed rivals in the field, however he is a experienced, tough, and I quite fancy him off the bridle to dog fight this out in the final furlong, he won’t be far away here. He ran well here, he is exposed, so it’s tough to place him.
Newbury 2.10 Breeze easy 0.25 pts EW 16/1 PP/sky/hills
She was 2nd top lot at the Tattersalls Goresbridge breeze up sales in june, where she moved and breezed well, hence the £240,000 price tag.
She is a relation to the useful pair of Arctic sound and deep snow, and her sellers have previously sold the likes of stormy antarctic and salateen at the sales, so are no strangers to producing a good one.
The form of the favourite banshee reads well, and she will take a bit of beating.
Nikkos girl cost £150,000 at the breeze ups herself, and is not to be under estimated
Majestic glory cost £350,000 before being withdrawn from both breeze up sales, my gut tells me that having missed 2 chances to breeze publically, she may not live up to that price tag.
Richard hannon has a trio of runners here, and won this last year with the very smart fly miss helen.
The pick of the bunch may well be the queen’s unraced filly intellelligentsua who is a relation to the Andre fabre trained recent group 3 winner ideal beauty.
So this is absolutely no easy Task for breeze easy, however I liked what I saw at goresbridge from lot 99, where she abtained a little bit of experience, and I’d be hopeful that she could put that to good use and be involved here at a big price.
Ran ok, could well be worth following forward.
4.55 killarney pinar de rio 0.5 pts EW 9/2
He significantly drops in grade here from the strongest 2yo race ran in Ireland, In to what looks a fair contest.
He was well beaten last time, but so would the rest of this field be.
The step up to a mile, could seek further improvement, being a relation to space mountain and ripples effect who both won at over a mile or further.
His Maiden win reads well, and the post race comments suggest that it was no fluke, so back down at a level that isn’t beyond him, he should take a leading role in a competitive race.
Post race comments from his Maiden..
“It’s an uncomplicated horse, he had a lovely first run and I was hoping coming here today that he might do something like that.
“He’s showing a lot of class and he has to step up now, whether that’s running back here or going to the UK I don’t know.
“He’s done it well today and I think he’ll have no bother getting further in time.
“I was very happy he did that as well as he did today.
“I don’t think that ground is what he’s looking for, I think he wants nicer ground, so for him to do that in the ground I’m happy.”
Travelled very well, then immediately pulled up, clearly an issue.
2.45 beverley Rock Princess 0.25pts EW 15/2 hills/sky….
Rock Princess comes in to this unraced, however she has a bundle of lofty entries, her trainer Kevin Ryan has block entered some useful 2yos in the ballyhane stakes, that have already ran, she is the last of those to run, and this Maiden looks winnable for a new comer.
we took a chance on her, she was extremely green, and weakened poorly. She needs more experience.
1.50 salisbury penywern taverner 0.25 pts EW 15/2 paddy power.
There was notable money on debut for pennywern taverner, who cost £70,000 at the sales.
He ran well in a very competative race.
Before then going off fav at chepstow, only to lose 2nd place very late in the final furlong.
He has shown enough in his 2 starts, for me to believe that he is capable of winning a Maiden in this company.
As a relation to the very smart under the stars, this step up to 7F wouldn’t look to be an issue, and he holds prospects of being involved in the finish here.
he ran very well, we just didn’t get paid, he is worth following forwards.
1.00 fairyhouse ultra marine 1pt EW 11/4 365/hills/betv
He also had very notable money come for him on debut, despite his form figures, he has ran very well, he has just ran in 2 deep maidens, this Maiden does look weaker here, especially in comparison to the 1.35 where his stablemate holds valid claims in a deeper race.
In summary ultra marine holds very valid claims of being strongly involved in the finish here where I belive he will reverse the form with shoe box king, now he has a 6 pounds swing, and more valuable experience under his belt.
we got mugged on the line, he ran extremely well,as I am writing this, he is declared to run again. The race looks very competative, and it could go either way.
1.00 navan Daisy peers 5/1 0.5 pts EW bet365
Daisy peers wouldn’t look completely obvious to drop back in trip here, however this race is weaker, and she was dropped right out the back last time out.
In her prior race, over 7F I like what she found off the bridle,
This will not be a pretty watch, however with the experience behind her, and 5 pounds taken off her back. I feel that she can find off the bridle, and be scrubbed along to get involved late here, hopefully from looking like beaten to victory.
won exactly as the write up beforehand.
Queen power 12/1 0.75pts EW sky (5places)
LADY bowthorpe 7/1 0.75 pts EW sky (5 places)
I think everyone knows that I really like alcohol free, however, for want of a better word, I thought Queen power recieved a piss poor ride at Royal Ascot, held up on the wrong side, she stays the mile extremely well, so I am really hoping that at they are going to make more use of her here, imo more prominent tactics, can seek further improvement, and she could potentially reverse the form with lady bowthorpe.
Lady bowthorpe is closely matched with our other selection, and she should be held up here to be seen at her best, she has a decent turn of foot, and should be involved in the finish here.
I believe the pair, will match up well against the 3yo’s and are considerably over priced here. Queen power bombed, both need to go up in trip, lady bowthorpe ran very well, and can win at the highest level, over 10F
2.55 Catterick. Lethal levi 1 pt 9/4 INSUREBET bet365 / sky. (Money back for 2nd place)
Lethal levi has drifted out to beyond what I thought he would, and becomes a bet here. His form with Fearby/Haymaker and therefore caturra. Leaves him well in off a mark of 73 imo.
The fav we know all about having touched off our selection last time, she is under a penalty here, and with 10 pounds on our side, we will take our chances here, with 2nd place as money back.
I will be dissapointed if he is out of the 2 here. Ran well, ran into one, and beaten fair and square.
Tuesday 3.00 Ponteftact, Lights On 4/1 0.75 pts EW hills. Feel free to wait for anyone who wants to back else where, 4/1 should be readily available, however I am working in advance.
This is a huge drop in grade for agincourt, she was 3rd in this race 2 year’s ago and warrants respect.
Declared interest is improving, however will find this tougher off level weights here.
Watching the last run of Jouska, this level, and in particular the increase in trip to a mile, would look suitable, however prior form leaves that open to debate, and she is best watched.
Lottie Marie may well be going nicely a furlong out for those who like to back to lay, however she may be swamped in the finish here.
Domino darling looks capable, however hasnt yet progressed as expected.
Lights on and Walliyak are 2 horses in good form, that would both look to be involved here, Lights on is 2 pounds better off here than when they met last time, and both will be ridden to get home late.
Lights on was ridden wide throughout and stayed on well from a position where she couldn’t get involved without having the kitchen sink thrown at her, waliyak covered less ground taking the inside route, I do not agree with the in running comments that she was hampered/unlucky.
wherever waliyak went, a gap opened up infront of her, she had horses around her to keep her genuine, and I think this helped her, where she attained imo her best possible finishing position.
She still obviously has a good chance here, however the prices alone, dictate for me to go with LIGHTS ON at 4/1, in the hope that a 2 pounds swing, and a better tactical position, allows her to stay on late to be bang there at the finish and potentially win. Stays very well, won very easily, possibly try a group 3 up in trip.
2.10 Limerick. Witham River 7/1 0.25 pts EW hills
Witham River cost £200,000 as a yearling at the sales, and has ran twice already in maidens over a trip,
he started over 11F, and last time dropped to 9F where he was ridden prominently and headed, when in the lead 1 1/2 F out to finish a well beaten 6th behind Tazaral.
Witham River is a relation of the dual royal ascot winning Art connoisseur who won the 6F Coventry stakes as a 2yo and the 6F Diamond Jubilee as a 3yo, the other winning relation homeland won a 7f Maiden at listowel for Aiden o’brien.
The drop in trip to a mile here looks ideal, and could seek out further improvement should he be ridden a little more economically (which the removal of cheek pieces indicates).
therefore a very small EW chance will be taken to on Witham River, who has valid claims of being involved in the finish here, with a small ammount of improvement, and a little but of luck needed due to the field size of 19.
ran very well, just diddnt get paid, worth following further, in the right field.
3.50 Haydock Magic Warrior 6/1 0.5pts EW (hills)
Magic warrior cost £145,000 as a yearling, and took 4 races to get off the mark, winning his Maiden at Brighton last time.
If you can excuse his run against al shibli prior, then his 2 runs prior to that despite the form figures, were useful runs, behind the smart quartet of korker, jadhlaan, catturra and ebro River.
He now drops into a Nursery off a mark of 74, which I belive to be slightly lenient, with further improvement expected He should be involved in the finish here.
Adaay in Asia who has some useful form herself, could be ahead of a mark of 67. Cashew makes use of a 3 pound claimer, and this drop in company.
Cashew does set the bench mark here on prior form, However She dosent seem to be progressing, and others around her are catching up fast. She was beaten under a penalty last time by Richard hannons Groom, and I do think the 2yo colts look a fair bit ahead of their female equivalents, therefore we will take a chance on magic warrior here despite his lesser form figures. Ran very well, beaten fair and square.
6.53 Newbury BOSH 4pts 7/4 insurebet (sky) (money back if placed)
Bosh goes very well at home, and We backed him on debut where he finished a very good 2nd, he them followed up next time by a nose, in a race where the 2nd has duly followed up in a strong race at pontefract.
Bosh is undoubtedly a smart individual, who has extremely valid win claims here, I would be very dissapointed if he is out of the frame, and do expect him to be bang there at the finish here
I think we are fortunate that he has drifted out to a backable price, so will take full advantage of that, in terms of staking. +7 won as expected,
6.23 Newbury. Signorina Merisi 0.5pts EW 10/1 bet365
she will likely drift further, however I have been checking the price every half an hour since 4pm yesterday, so for my own ease I will put up at the 10/1, and bog is available.
This looks a tough Maiden, dark tulip has some smart form, with the step back up to 6f looking sure to suit her here, likewise doolilly who ran in to some very smart performers on debut, who have since followed up. The pair look to be the obvious ones to beat here, and set a pretty decent standard.
Signorina Merisi has yet to run, and holds a very lofty entry for the Moygare Stud stakes Group 1 in Ireland, her trainer Mick channon wouldn’t be one for block entering, having made just 1 other entry for the race, her stablemate who holds the same entry Kinrara, ran a stormer to be beaten just 1L in her Maiden at Lingfield, despite significant traffic problems there.
Sinorina Merisi cost £37,000 as a yearling at the Tattersall yearling sales, is likely highly regarded on home work, and hopefully can better her stablemates recent introduction to also warrant her entry fee for the Moyglare.
Of the others yet to run, First Crowd breezed well at the craven meeting, and caught the eye as lot 12, she was picked up for £45,000 and has the potential to make an immediate impact here.
It must be said that, this is absolutely no easy Task, However Sinorina Merisi holds valid credentials, and a small EW chance will be taken on a potentially useful debutant to attempt to better the decent standard that has already been set by those who have ran previously.
-1 needs a step up in trip to a mile. Well worth following once up in trip.
12.40 Auteuil, Grand Messe 14/1 0.25pts EW (5 places PP)
6th, 9th, 8th, 7th, 8th, 7th are extremely uninspiring form figures for your last 6 runs to be coming in as top weight here, However I had to second guess it was the same Grand Messe, as she has some very smart back form with the likes of James du Berlais, and has stayed very highly tried ever since.
The horses who have placed in the races of which she has abtained the form figures above, would piss up in this handicap.
So this is a huge drop in grade for Grand Messe.
Therefore despite her being tailed off in her last few runs, I am willing to give her a chance here at this level. off top weight in handicap company, where she should find everything happening around her much more to her liking.
If she Is gone at the game, she will bomb, however most of the field here would be tailed off in the company she ran in,
so to put it In terms of uk racing, it would be arguably somewhat like wicklow brave coming into the 2015 county Hurdle.
The outcome may not obviously be the same, hence the small stakes, but the profile is simular and she has valid claims, so it would be no shock to see her get back involved, or even run away with this.
The drop in grade, allowed her to travel through this race with ease, and she found everything far easier here, as i had hoped, and somewhat expected. Despite a mistake at the last, she won very nicely.
2.45 Lingfield Mount rainier 18/1 0.5 pts EW (4places PP)
The fav is a non runner in the other race I was looking at, however in return the non runners here, give Mount rainier a fair shot at the places (1-4).
Her stablemate symphony perfect got off the mark recently, out of the same race, and I belive Mount rainier is the better long term prospect, being a relation to the very useful Viztoria. She ran green on debut, and needs to show marked improvement here, and while I was originally going to wait for another run from her, the non runners here had valid place claims themselves, so this race does now become a viable opportunity.
I am hoping for her to sneak into the 4 here, however with marked improvement expected, a win isn’t completely out of the equation.
Ran the race in which I hoped, very happy with the EW return, she can keep progressing and win her Maiden, with the right opportunity .
6.35 curragh. Haziya 6/1 0.25 EW
It was going to be a no bet day as I diddnt get what prices I wanted in the opening 2 maidens, however haziya is priced fairly, and in all honesty I want want make sure everyone’s passwords are working, after a small update, hence the very low stakes, but as below, she has valid claims.
Haziya has some useful form when infront of Ulster Blackwater the last twice, call me sweetheart has since followed up, and I think it’s a fair case of her running in to some pretty smart fillys. She has shown consistency, where as the rest of the field, contains some pricey purchases, that haven’t lived up to their price tag or breeding. I would like to think that she will be involved in the finish here.
solid place, ran well. Drop to handicap company would be fruitful.
23rd wed. 4.40 carlisle. Meu Amor 9/2 1.5 pts EW hills.
Meu amor went down by just a neck at this level when beaten by the 100 rated ventura diamond.
She has kept very good company since, and has been within 2L of the German 1000 guineas 2nd, bounce the blues, isabelle Giles, mehmento and parents prayer, who are all solid graded performers.
This trip of just short of 7f, looks absolutely ideal for her and she should give a bold showing here.
The race is fairly easy to break down, rosemary and thyme, Rabat, and elvic would have no chance of beating her here, and cloudy dawn steps up significantly in grade and would need to find a fair bit.
That leaves ilykato who ran on nicely last time and deserves respect. She is not unbeatable.
Thunder beauty who has kept very good company, however needs this drop in grade badly, she is to be respected, however is beatable
Mamba wamba who finished begind our selection last time, and was some what flattered by being held up off a decent pace, and a slightly longer trip.
So our selection meu amor is bang there with ikykato and thunder beauty, with mamba wamba imo looking the only one to have an outside chance of finishing infront of us here,
I am very much hoping there will be NO non runners here, to keep the 3 places, meu amor has a very valid win chance, where due toher previous consistency at a good level, I would be dissapointed if she dosent hit the frame. Therefore at 9/2 she is a solid EW bet here.
won very nicely here, and hacked up, likely to go back up in Grade and try a group 3 against her own sex
3.00 chantilly. Philomene 2pts EW 5/1 (5 places) hills. 6 places sky
Philomene dropped sharply in trip for the french 1000 to take her chance, she came home well there and looked set for a solid 3rd or 4th without being asked a great deal, before she ge got closed out, hampered, and eased in the closing stages, to finish 6th.
This step up in trip will massively suit her, and she is the one to beat. 5/1 with 5 places is very generous, so we will take a decent cut at her here, and I will be extremely disappointed if she is out of the 5, as I belive she would have to get a horrendous run through for that to be the case.
The best horse in the race, came home very well, too late, no excuses. Smart filly.
Jersey Stakes NAVAL CROWN 0.75pts EW 10/1 with 5 places PP.
he has some very solid group form, the drop down to 7F should be very suitable, he should go well here and be involved in the finish.
Ran an absolute stormer, just done by his stablemate, who had very smart form.
5.00 Gowran. Ulster Blackwater 6/1 0.5pts EW bet365
She retains some very lofty entries after having 2 runs this season,
She caught the eye on her debut, when dropped right out in what looked like public schooling, and I am willing to forgive her last run on account of the ground.
Haziya has beaten her twice and has very valid claims in her own right.
Likewise dermot welds vario, who is Entered in a Group Two over this distance at the Curragh next month, vario was straight into stakes company last year, finishing fourth at Leopardstown when only just behind a subsequent Group Three winner and Irish 1,000 Guineas third.
I believe that Ulster Blackwater has yet to fulfil her promise she showed when winning her barrier trial. Ground Conditions and today’s trip, hold no excuses.
Therefore at the prices, an EW chance will be taken on her to show improvement, as this is no easy task on what she showed last time.
ran very well here, I would like to see her put in handicap company now, would have a huge chance
1.55 bath. Mount rainier 6/1 0.5 pts win bet365
I wish this was race had 8 runners as I’d take a fair cut at her EW. However it is 7, so we will have a small win bet.
Mount rainer was a £160,000 purchase as a foal in 2019 at the goffs November sale, and runs here in what I belive to be a weak Maiden, her stablemate symphony perfect, as well as the Tom dascome trained debutant with a Wetherbys super sprint entry, look the pick of the rest. Behind that, it looks very poor.
Despite her 2nd last time, and the quotes of Richard hannon on his pair, I belive that his debutant has valid claims of beating the twice raced, and placed symphony perfect, whibis short in the market, and has achieved a standard of which is attainable for a debutant.
ran OK, however this looks a weak race, so wouldn’t follow her forward atm.
1.50 limerick Sangria 14/1 0.25pts EW pp/BF
Sangria was a huge drifter in the market on debut when finishing midfield behind 2 smart fillies over 6f. The 2nd has followed up since, likewise the 3rd.
And the way sangria shaped as if she would appreciate this step up up 7f, plus the fact that she obtains a couple of lofty future entries in both the railway stakes and the airlie stud stakes, leads me to belive that she can improve upon that debut effort, in what does look a slightly easier contest.
ran an absolute stormer, can’t belive she unplaced, a winner in waiting at this level.
4.55 fairyhouse angels palm 0.5 pts EW 6/1 (5 places) PP hills….
she gets an opening handicap mark and drops into lesser company here, please refer to our horses to follow.
ran an absolute stormer, left too much to do, a winner in waiting at this level.
4.30 salisbury Hawridge flyer 11/2 0.5 pts EW bet365
He has come down 1 pound in the handicap to a mark of 69, having last won of 77, and now drops back down in grade to a class 5 handicap over the correct trip of 12F.
he should appreciate the drop in grade here off a lower weight, and with the right conditions. He has no excuses here, and should hold valid claims of staying on well late to be involved at the business end of the race.
dissapointing run, regressed.
4.50 chantilly Lady in France 0.5 pts EW 9/2 4 places sky.
Lady in France ran well when running in the much stronger Prix de L’abbaye at the end of last season when she was held up too far off the pace, she has started the season OK, running well last time in what would be a slightly stronger race than this. Now back in France, I would strongly like to see more prominent tactics, which imo would see her go very well here.
very poor, no excuses
Doncaster 1.55 Allayaali 9/2 bet365 1pt EW
Allayaali was a £575,000 purchase at the goffs November sale as a foal, she is related to just the judge, who was also trained by charlie hills, just the judge finished 2nd in the 1000 guineas narrowly beaten by sky lantern, before going on to win the irish version and placing at the breeders cup.
Aalayaali runs today in a Maiden, which imo lacks quality, with those who have ran beforehand, being of a bang average standard, and none of the unraced horses having notable entries. So if aalayaali is going to be in any way living up to her price tag and breeding, she’ll want to be going well here.
travelled the best of all, just prevailed at the finish, useful, and better than the winning margin, however the opposition leaves something to be desired. Won returned 15/2.
1.20 leopardstown Discoveries 4/1 bet365 1pt EW
discoveries holds a lofty entry for the airlie stud stakes, and is also a relative of both alpha centauri and alpine star who are an extremely smart pair, she makes her debut here in a decent looking maiden, and she holds valid claims.
Aiden o’brien runs a relation to the wow signal who bolted up in his 2 maidens before winning the Coventry, and Joseph o’briens debutant for munir and souede also has an airlie stud stakes entry, and comes from a smart family, being a relation to micromanage and magnanimous.
The trio including our selection, look the pick of the unraced horses, with a fair standard already set by juncture and dissociate, however that standard set does look achievable for a smart debutant, and we may well see one here, with ascot on the horizon.
ran very well, but diddnt get paid, looks a Maiden winner in waiting, however will likely be found in the market now.
5.10 Kempton Ardbraccan 10/1 0.5 pts EW bet 365.
Likewise her stablemate sows, she has an airlie stud stakes entry, which indicates she goes well at home, as well as an additional entry for the weatherbys super sprint at the end of next month. She was a £32,000 purchase at the goffs Orby sale, and is a relation to fool for you, who won a few nice pots, and had a rating in the 90s
This race does look red hot, even the 3rd string for Godolphin is a £180,000 well bred filly, Charlie applebys runner before dawn is also very well entered up, she has an airlie stud stakes entry, as well as prior race course experience when 2nd last time and sets the standard, Along with the £390,000 purchase sun strike who was 4th when slowly away and green on debut for John gosden.
There is plenty of opposition here, and it’s absolutely no easy task on debut, however a small chance will be taken on Ardbraccan at 10/1 who’s connections hold faith in her, having spent a good few quid on her lofty entries.
She may well open up slightly bigger with another bookmaker, so if you want to wait, that’s fine. I am just putting up now for my own ease, and its B.O.G on 365 anyway.
didn’t run terribly in what looked a very strong race for a Maiden, may now go under estimated in a lesser event
1.00 nottingham Sows 9/1 bet 365 1pt EW
Sows has an entry for the airlie stud stakes over in Ireland, as well as the premier yearling stakes.
she was a £100,000 Purchase at goffs, is well entered up, and one i have been waiting for.
I’m inclined to think she can go well in this Maiden.
came home very well, very useful, and could go up in trip. won and returned at 16/1.
3.45 Longchamp duhail 6/4 1 pt win. Betv/ betf
duhail is a smart horse, he drops back to 7F here, and should get away with it, though he is better at a mile, he has a decent turn of foot, and is on the incline.
Putting him up here, is as much about the Sussex stakes at Goodwood as it is today. He will improve from today, back up at a mile, the owners are crying out for runners there, and he is a very nice EW antepost proposition for the Sussex stakes at Goodwood, should he do the business today, with improvement set to come.
Current odds are 12/1, which is very unlikely to be suspended during the race today.
winner was given a soft lead, but ridden well tactically, duhail needs to go back up in trip to the mile, where he should show significant improvement, and may well be capable of placing at the highest level, at a big price.
5.40 salisbury BOSH 1.5 pts EW 9/2 various
Bosh is is entered in the railway stakes where Richard hannon currently has a 100% record of 5 for 5, with 2yo runners with the entry.
One I have been waiting for.
Good 2nd, ran very well.
1.15 fairyhouse Admiral D 0.5 pts EW 10/1 hills/pp
Admiral D was a 37,000Gbp breeze-up purchase in April and a future entry in the group 2 railway stakes catches the eye, he can go well here on his racecourse debut, with the horses who have ran prior setting a standard which looks very beatable for a debutant.
Joseph o brien’s filly has an entry for the airlie stud stakes group 2, which is the female equivalent of the railway stakes, and was purchased at £25,000 for josephs mother Anne Marie, so is to be respected in opposition.
Good introduction in a strong race, however we didn’t get paid. Useful
5.30 Carlisle. Wee loch lass 3/1 1pt win (b365)
Wee loch lass has been beaten in 3 maidens, however she has ran in to some smart performers.
Last time she finished a narrow 3rd behind dairerin who only just failed to follow up last time by a nose in a conditions event, with the 6L behind 4th, Sophie star winning her Maiden next time out.
Beforehand she went down by just a neck to Hotline bling who also runs for Richard hannon today in a lofty Listed event, his form prior to beating our selection is also solid behind arboy will, in a race which is working out very well indeed.
Behind Wee loch lass was atomic lady, who is favouirite for a Maiden ran today, and highly regarded in tim easterbys stable tour.
Therefore Wee loch lass does have valid excuses for being beaten the 3 times prior, where as the other also rans in this field, joyous days was well beaten in 6th last time, with the aforementioned Sophie star already easily accounting for the 3rd home on that race.
Bungley was over 8L behind our selection last time out.
Province was beaten by little earl, who looked to have markedly improved from his debut, the 2nd has won since, and he is to be respected.
Qwicken finished 2nd last time to a decent looking horse in choux, who was very well gambled on, and won easily,
The favourite ran no sort of race, with the 3rd home zwift being an unfancied debutant, and the 4th well beaten the time before when 7th of 9 at 28/1.
I believe that qwiken was considerably flattered there, by the poor opposition in behind, and is now under priced for this each in comparison to our selection who has substance to the form and a favourites chance in every way bar the opening odds.
Karl burks Cheveley Park bred and owned debutant Frisky, may well be one to note here, she is related to effusive, another home bred who won on debut in her Maiden, and sired by bated breath who has a 12.6% strike rate with debutants.
She deserves respect having featured in his stable tour, earlier in the season.
However Wee loch lass is the one for me here at 3/1.
won well, and well placed, can’t see her going up in Grade.
7.05 Lingfield Bicep 13/2 0.5 pts EW bet365.
archie Watson’s 2yo has future entries in the William hill trophy and the Wetherby super sprint, he cost £47,000 at the goffs sale, and being sired by Mehmas, he should be a precocious early type. Pedro’s sets the form standard of those who have ran prior, which doesn’t seem unbeatable for a debutant.
won nicely, was on the pace early and did well to keep on.
6.15 Windsor. Windseeker 1pt win 13/8 hills
Im focusing on maidens atm while watching the seasoned handicappers and Graded horses get there seasonal debut runs out of the way, and the younger horses accrue runs to qualify for nursery races. One of interest having his debut that I have been waiting for is WINDSEEKER who was a £75,000 purchase at the October yearling sales, he has a future entry in the grade 2 railway stakes for Richard hannon, with hannons other entries for that race having a 100% strike rate so far, being 5 for 5 this season and having gone off at odds as big as 28/1, this is something well worth taking notice of for his remaining unraced entries yet to run in there maidens.
He has opened up as found in the market at 6/4, however it is likely that he is useful, and I still wanted to put up, as its a worth while observation to note down for the long term. However I will wait for the rest of the bookmakers to price up.
1.25 newmarket Sovereign Prince 5/2 1.5pts win various.
Sovereign Prince has an entry in the railway stakes over in Ireland, which from prior experience, is a very good guide to charlie appleby newcomers. This is a solid race for an introduction, with superior force having already won his Maiden.
However the lofty entry for sovereign Prince, makes him one worth following, and he could well take this race on his way to bigger things.
at the moment, it will be no bet as the Charlie Appleby 2yo I like, is well into odds on when I was hoping for evens. There are some smart 2yo’s to come that I have been waiting for, entered up on the 22nd and the 24th.
not his day, can still win his Maiden.
Awaiting potential suitable EW odds for 7.25 Sandown Diavalo 1pt EW 9/2 bet365
Although unraced, he was sent to the yearling sales in 2019, where he was unsold at £390,000. Although bidding reached lofty heights, his breeders weren’t happy with the price and have rolled the dice in keeping him themselves and putting him in training with Roger varian before potentially selling after a run.
Connections prior runners they kept, LOVE IS YOU, won on debut, followed up in a Listed race, and was a placed fav in the Nell Gwyn. FALLEN FOR YOU who won her Maiden and later the G1 coronation stakes, and SULTANINA won her Maiden and later the Nassau stakes.
At the same sale as diavalo They sold the very smart pair of Mohaafeth and Hurricane Lane who went through the ring just six lots apart at Tattersalls October Book 1, the former selling for 350,000gns and Hurricane Lane was bought for 200,000gns by Godolphin.
Therefore turning down £390,000 for DIAVALO makes me inclined to think they have another useful one on their hands, they are willing to race for now having not reached the value they placed on the horse.
He was set to appear in his breeder’s colours at Newbury on Friday until a foot abscess delayed his debut, and he now rocks up here in a slightly weaker looking maiden.
As quoted below they are still looking to sell, so he would need to be going well here, to better the £390,000 he was bid up to prior.
“ I felt that I wasn’t really getting the prices that I thought these horses were worth at the sales so I made the decision pre-pandemic to run them, and if they are good I will sell them in training.”
Finished tamely, no excuses.
3.45 cork Grid has some very solid form over the mile, his 4th behind the derby fav bolshoi ballet reads well, with o’reilly going on to win his Maiden on his next start, and moktaffy going on to be beaten half a length by sir lamorak who had also been touted for the derby.
Last time out he had HMS see horse who is a Maiden winner in waiting, behind him in a 40k handicap, which ties him in with
HANDEL who looks like he will improve for going up to the mile,
Handel was beaten by the useful corps des pages who had the aforementioned HMS seahorse 2.75L infront of him, and ran to form, with his closely matched on homework stablemate narrowly beating HMS seahorse next time up.
Grid has the mile form to win this, however handel should markedly step up for the longer trip here, and has been crying out for it, so there shouldn’t be too much between them here. So prices will dictate the way i go here with my slight preference for the former, may be worth going against with the latter, should the prices dictate so. Both opened up shorter than expected but are worth noting for the future.
1.30 Yarmouth King of Gold 8/1 PP 0.5pts EW
The is a big strong Kingman colt. The dam was a Listed winner for the trainer and he started a little bit late, but he goes really well at home. He starts here over six furlongs In what could be a hot Maiden, with the likes of the well Bred King power £260,000 colt, and Simon crisfords £100,000 purchase.
However King Of Gold holds an entry for the William hill 2yo trophy at Redcar later in the season, and could be pretty useful in his own right should his homework translate to the track.
Broke slowly and held up last of all on the wrong side of the track, they went a slow pace and he was quite keen, front 2 were on the pace on the right side of the track, King of Gold flew home with no chance of getting to the front pair, finished his race impressively, with a clean break and a stronger pace, could easily have won. Croupier also worth noting with a potential drop down to 5F
1.40 Naas. Boyne River 5/1 bet365 0.5 pts EW.
She has ran in 2 smart Maiden races the last twice, both times staying on well, a mile around naas with a bit of cut, would look to be very suitable, before stepping up in trip at a later date.
The only issue is race fitness being first time up, however she has the form in the book to be winning a Maiden of this stature, and could well be up to stakes company later in the season.
ran well, can progress with race fitness, sure to win a Maiden, but could be worth stepping up to 10F in handicap company
4.30 Newbury Eshaada 0.25 pts EW 10/1 hills
Eshaada won the Montrose Stakes last autumn. She has reportedly done very well over the winter and holds an entry fir the ribblesdale. She won on heavy ground last year but I don’t think she needs that surface, this is a very tough race, and looks red hot. However she looks like she could be useful this season, and at the prices a chance will be taken.
She won this very nicely and returned at an SP of 18/1, stayed the trip very well, and was well on top at the line. Smart
2.40 Newmarket cloudbridge 0.5 pts win 9/2 betv/betf
He bombed in the Acomb stakes being too keen over 7F, dropped back to 6F he ran a smart race, staying on very well at the finish, he looks to have learnt from his experience in the Acomb stakes, and didn’t take a mad pull last time out, so eith the way he finished there a chance will be taken that he can settle over 7F and give weight to the filly bellosa who does have a coronation stakes entry, however has only won a weak looking maiden very nicely.
needs a bigger field with some cover,
York 4.50 second slip
0.25 pts EW 8/1 William hill (5 places)
we are just keeping stakes low at the moment until opportunities come along.
But one of interest From our flat horses to follow…..
Second Slip was very much a frame as a 3-year-old, and looks to be a type to improve a lot as a 4-year-old. He won quite a decent looking maiden at Salisbury by a narrow margin before getting stuck in very soft conditions at Nottingham. He ran off a mark of 79 there, with better ground his current mark of 78 looks workable and would not look beyond him. Decent ground would look to be a necessity. 10f looks fine for him, though he should have absolutely no problem in going up to 12f with the right under foot conditions. He looks a nice type to win a couple of handicaps for his connections, and looks capable of paying his way on the £60,000 outlay paid for him at the sales.-0.5
3.45 leopardstown Ulster Blackwater 5/1 William Hill 1.5 pts EW
She won a barrier trial in batch 8 for Joseph o’brien with the 2nd and 3rd going on to win their maidens respectively. She looked very smart that day, binding her time, with just hands and heels needed for her to ease her way down the outside to take victory.
On the form of this win, she should be very capable of landing a Maiden, with the step up here from 7f to the 1m2 only looking a positive -3.
she holds entries in the French, Irish and English oaks, as well as the ribblesdale, and she ran a big race full of promise here, however to my annoyance it was public schooling where she was held right uo with no chchancethe last off the bridle here, I have no doubts she will go on to better that effort and be very useful.
2.30 ascot. Without a fight 5/1 0.5 pts EW hills/sky (4 places)
We will be keeping stakes small until runs are on the board, however without a fight has had a recent run over this trip when 2nd to Al aasy, he should come forward from that run, and is very much still unexposed. Andrea atzeni has chosen him over his unbeaten (this season) stablemate, and he should go well here, in a very competative race. +0
he ran OK, no excuses here.
5.40 Cork. Loch lein 0.5 pts EW 11/2. Bet 364
We backed her below on seasonal debut, she drops in trip and grade here, with the cobwebbs blown off, I ecoect her to go well. -1 She simply didn’t fire
2.55 Huntingon Buttsbury Lady 4/1 1pt EW sky bet 4 places. She is crying out for 3 miles, so imo would improve further off the back of this should she step up in trip, However this is a fair drop in grade for her in all but name, 2 and a half miles is a little on the sharp side, however she should fund this easier, and is capable of staying on late off a mark of 109 to be involved here -0.2 Ran OK, needs the step up to 3 miles to get her head infront.
4th May. 3.10 Gowran Never forgotten
12/1 0.5 pts EW. PP (4 places)
Never forgotten had the subsequent listed winner so wonderful in a Maiden last season, she also had previously been beaten by the smart pair of roca roma and Etneya.
Never forgotten bombed on seasonal debut, being heavily eased in a mile handicap at the curragh off a mark of 89,
she has dropped a pound, for that effort which wouldn’t be good enough here, however she was keen and fresh that day, holds a group 2 entry for the 22nd of May, and would wanting to be going very close here just to be making that entry worth while. A chance will be taken. -1
Clearly won’t be taking up the group entry, can do better in this company.
3.20 punchestown Concertista 3pts win 11/10 various.
Concertista ran a stormer at cheltenham where she was beaten by the very game Black Tears who we backed there in opposition to her. This race is even easier, I do not rate the Novices coming through, so this is basically a poor version of the mares Hurdle.
stormy Ireland travels well but dosent find a great deal off the bridle, especially at this trip, I fully expect concertista to pick ger up and spit her out, this should be a routine victory, concertista should be held up, and it’s just a matter of when Patrick decides he wants to get past stormy Ireland and win the race.
Patrick is simply on board because they want to secure him the amateur jockeys title. And she is undoubtedly my main bet of the day. -3
1st time tongue tie applied here, and stewards report indicated a wind issue.
4.00 I will update tomorrow as the prices change, but I am looking at a 2pt win match bet of zanahiyr against haut en couleurs, if evens or above, the latter is being backed, so they may flip flop in the market here +3.
ran very well, step up in trip next season.
1.55 Sandown pasvolski 0.5 pts EW at 10/1 sky 5 places.
Pasvolski is on better terms here with flic ou voyou despite beating him last time, this is a drop in to handicap company for flic ou voyou as it is for pasvolski.
The former has ran to a good level and been kept in good company, he should find this considerably easier, however there looked to be no fluke about the win of pasvolski, he is on better terms, and he can keep progressing over hurdles on just his 4th start, with lots of prior ptp experience. -1
the form line was the right one, he clouted a Hurdle and finished stone last, however however winner 2nd and 3rd had form that would see them behind pavlosky, he just didn’t perform.
1.50 Sandown – Dingle 0.5 pts EW 5/1 sky 4 places.
He has been unlucky to run into some smart colts last season. His seasonal reappearance was solid, and now back up another furlong up to a mile, which is the trip he has won over. It looks sure to suit him here, he should stay on well and be involved at the finish in a very competitive race. -1
19th Epsom 2.15 Too Friendly 0.5 pts EW. 8/1 bet365.
WIRKO for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby, was the top-priced colt sold at last year’s Baden Baden BBAG September Sale at €700,000. Out of the Listed-winning Mount Nelson mare Weltmacht, who is a half sister to the G2 winner Wild Coco.
He made a promising start to his career when runner-up at Wolverhampton, before winning nicely at Kempton in the fog last time – however his big market rival Barn Owl was a non runner, leaving him a straight forward task there. He still looks pretty green and is a work in progress, this is a step up that he may not be quite ready to take with a victory.
Hector de Maris won a handicap last time out. He has a lot of experience and there is plenty to like about him. With his connections worthy of the greatest respect, but he still has to improve plenty.
Uncle Bryn is unbeaten in two starts to date – a Kempton Maiden over a mile on his debut at the start of September beating Godolphin’s Local Law by an easy looking three lengths, and a Wolverhampton contest for Novices over nine and a half furlongs – again winning easily and landing odds of 2/9 by four-and-a-quarter-lengths from Jaramillo.
They probably weren’t the strongest of races, but Uncle Bryn won with plenty in hand, and looks the type to progress further at three – particularly over middle distances. I’ll be surprised if his rating doesn’t improve from the 92 that he starts the campaign from.
It will be interesting to see his he gets on here up in Grade, however I do feel that he us under priced for what he has achieved, but I can see why as connections have an unbelievable record in this race
Star Caliber was all out to beat Dhushan over a mile, and this step up in trip asks questions on that form with, Dhusan being beaten by TOO FRIENDLY over 12F last time. Too Friendly going away in the final furlong in the manner of a smart improving horse, he had previously ran into the Charlie Appleby trained Tamboradda, and is on the incline. The more pace on the better for him here, as he sat back just off the leaders last time and came back on to the bridle to pick them up. He deserves his chance here. -1
The Dushan form looks to be poor, Too friendly beat star caliber as I expected, however that form was not good enough to feature.
18th 5.30 AYR Masaccio 7/1 0.5 pts EW bet v/ unibet / sky
Masaccio won last time out beating Arthur’s seat who has followed up since after being beaten by the useful fruitNnut. Masaccio travelled well throughout the race and pulled out more in the finish, I believe that form to be fair with More improvement looking sure to come. Flemenstide has some smart form with No Ordinary Joe, as does Lockdown Luke with Peking Rose, however Flemenstide has been pulled from his last 2 engagements after declarations, last time being lame which has steered me away from him, and lock down luke was unsold at £105,000 at the sales recently. So with just the 1 run under the belt for masaccio who was a little green before getting the job done nicely, he gave me the impression that he could step up further here, and may well be able to match those efforts if not better them. +0.2
ran a very good race, just ran in to a smart new comer.
17th 2.35 Curragh. Know it all insurebet 4 places 9/4 sky bet. 2pts
This is 1st pays as a winner. 2/3/4th is money back.
She was in front going in to the final furlong in both the Prix Rothschild and the Matron stakes before being bettered late on by rock solid group 1 horses in Watch Me, Half Light, Champers Elysees, Peaceful and Fancy Blue.
The drop back to 7f on that form would look suitable, and despite some of her rivals having rhe fitness edge, this is a drop in grade and I would exoect her to be bang there at the finish. +0
Aidens horse dictated and know it all couldn’t get there, a good seasonal opener, and more to come from know it all, at this grade
5.40 Bath Dickiedooda 5/1 0.5 pts EW 4 places 365.
Dickiedooda travels over from Ireland in the search of some black type. She had a decent prep recently at dundalk over 6f to blow the cob webs away, on all her previous runs, the drop down down 5f here looks sure to suit. Her 2yo form is useful, and if she runs to her current rating of 92, I belive that is good enough to win this. +0
she ran well, just beaten fair and square.
10th Leopardstown 2.40. Loch Lein 7/1 0.5 pts EW bet Victor/ pp
She has some solid maiden form, especially when running in to the leading colt St Marks basilica. She hacked up last time when taking on inferior rivals, this is a step back up, but one which she comes in to with good form behind her, and I think she should be at home in this company. She holds solid claims here. -1
No excuses here, she just bombed on seasonal debut, as plenty will before going on to better things.
8th Aintree 2.50 Shan Blue 8/1 0.5 pts EW PP.
This track should suit, I expect him to bowl along and give an improved jumping display. I feel he is over priced, and it may be difficult for 3 of his rivals to pass him here. +0.3
he couldn’t get to the lead, but ran OK, he was outclassed in the closing stages, and handicap company is where his future lies.
7th Aintree 5.15 Where’s Maud Gone 20/1 Bet 365 0.5 pts EW 4 places.
Her Ayr form isn’t bad, she ran in to a pretty decent Crawford horse that finished behind party central and ran nicely. Her form is actually pretty good, so she has claims and may surprise here. Eileendover and Ell est Belle are nice mares, so there are not many places left, but she should be closely involved here and it wouldn’t surprise if she goes very well and is involved in the finish. -1
She took a bad step during the race and lost momentum, however, she picked back up on the bridle, travelled very well in to contention, and was beaten by better horses with no excuse. She ran very well, we just didn’t get paid.