Running Total for June. Stakes 74pts +47.71pts. +64.67% ROI as of 27th June.
Billesdon Brook 2pt win @9/2(unib)
She doesn’t have a great record first time out, however she has always re-appeared into better company than this and she has never been in better form than she was in at the tail end of last season. There should be plenty of pace on here She’s going to travel in mid division, potentially follow scentasia through and needs a gap to open up late to finish stronger than her rival. – 2
2pt win @4/1(B365)
On the other end of the scale, Nazeef is very unexposed, she easily beat the very consistent salayel by 6 lengths when last seen, which is a big upturn in her form and shows she is very much on the incline. she is receiving 7 pounds from Billesdon Brook here and 3 pounds from her more experienced stablemate scentasia. Stall 13 normally wouldn’t make things easy, however it will give her time to get into a rythhym and like Billesdon Brook she possesses a sharp turn of foot, with the pace infront of her set to suit. +8
Troubador 1pt EW @10/1 1/5 4P (coral)
Had a lot of runs and progressed throughout the season last year. His run at york finishing 2nd when giving 7 pounds and a beating to rose of kildare reads well. And trying to give 9 pounds to summer sands in the red car trophy was a very lofty task which he came out of with great credit. He doesn’t have the group class form of other contenders here but I believe his form is under rated and he gets his chance off level weights. – 2
Glasvegas 0.5pt win @28/1 (Hills)
Caught the eye in the windsor castle stakes finishing just being platinum star finishing well over 5f and looking like a step up in trip was to be on the cards. He ran last time out in the Redcar trophy where he was well fancied and ran poorly, he may not have handled the underfoot conditions and I’m willing to give him a chance here. Imo he’s not an EW prospect as he’s either on a going day, or may not travel and get into the race. I think he’s worth a small shot at causing a shock. Needs to drop in grade. – 1
5th June Newmarket 3.00
Momkin 1pt EW 12/1 (4 places sky)
Finished 10th in last year’s guineas before running in the Jersey where he was held up and taking a passage through when he got hampered and lost his chance. Imo he was running into the places. He was then beaten on his next 2 starts by dukes of hazzard who went on to Frank the form winning a group 2 in the celebration mile. Momkins final start came in a group 3 over 7f duly Running on well at the finish without quite being able to get to suedois who is a consistent 7f specialist.
A step up in trip to a Mile here in a strong ran listed race should be exactly what he requires, if he manages to pick up where he left off last season he should be finishing well and in the shake up at the tail end of the race. – 2
6th June shades of blue 1.50 Newm 8/1 (bet365) 2pts EW. I actually backed shades of blue last year in the prix de l’abbaye where I though she had an outside chance of being involved in the finish of a group 1 until conditions deteriated and her first run on very soft ground ended in minor disappointment. . The winner of that race glass slippers finished behind her previously in the group 3 summer stakes which showed she was capable to be in the mix.
Shades of blue on her next start was narrowly beaten by perfection in a listed race, who herself had only just been narrowly beaten by Billesdon Brook at group 3 level who was very much in peak form. Imo the form of shades of blue is strong enough in context to this race, (even though it is a group 3) and she is still herself still unexposed to more improvement. I’m expecting her to be involved in the finish here, and hopefully progress to get another shot at a group 1 later in the season. Slowly away, Bad positioning throughout. ultimately given no chance. one to keep an eye on for future entries. – 4
Jouska 5.20 Newmarket 12/1 (coral) 0.75pt EW. Jouska will be having her first run in handicap company with an alloted mark of 98 which I believe is fair. In Her last run she was crying out for a step up in trip back to 6f which she gets here. She was ridden along and stayed on well late in the race to finish 3rd, 1 place behind one of our horses to follow in pistoletto. She has ran in good company against the likes of mislisle and another of our horses to follow in dark lady. Although she is near the top of the weights there is nothing of outstanding quality In opposition and I would like to think over the 6f here with a little luck in running she has the ability to be able to come home late into the money and potentially pick up the leaders. – 1.5
7th June 4.35 haydock 11/2, 2pt win (PP/BF) Liberty beach ran last year in the molecombe where she did not get the best passage through the race as a few horses got in her way, but she showed once again a very potent change of gear. She was pulled out, found the gap, and off she went. She Then went on to run over 6f in the lowther, running on in the final furlong, not quite able to get to living inthepast. I believe that she is worth persisting with over the 6f which she gets today, all her best work is done late so she will be worth watching at the end of the race as she picks her way through and hopefully gets to the leader. +11
8th June 5.05 Naas. Pistoletto 10/1 Hills 2pt win. as per the 3yos to follow……. Pistoletto Ran very well in the Weatherbys Racing Bank 300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster and was well in contention before tiring, showing that a drop in trip would see him in a better light. He was well gambled on and disappointed next time out over 6f. But on his final start dropped to 5f in a group 3 at Newmarket he went down by just a neck to good vibes. I could see him winning a simular contest this season at the minimum trip. Whether he starts back over 6f and then drops in trip again as the season progresses, 5f is where I see him able to put in his best performance. If he does start over 6f he may well go un noticed and be of good value when he does drop to the minimum trip.
He is sporting 1st time blinkers here over the minimum trio of 5f so there is every chance he is going to bounce out and try to make all in the way I have been waiting for. Hopefully that will be rewarded here – 2
8th Haydock 3.15 9/1 Hills 1 pt win JM Jackson once thought off as highly as raffle prize, JM Jackson has now found herself at class 4 handicap level. An opening mark of 80 for her introduction to this level seems very much on the lenient side to me, although a trip of over 7f on paper may be as far as she wants to go, the drop in class could well do the trick where her opening price of 9/1 looks generous on her to do so. – 1
Glen force 2.15 haydock. 1pt EW @ 7/1. B365. his 1st run in handicap after 2 very credible runs in Novice races for Mark Prescott. He disappointed last time out when an even money shot, however that did the trick in getting him in here off a mark of 79. With a switch to turf and the drop in grade more to his liking, I’m hoping he can lay up a little more prominent throughout the race and make ammends here. +0.4
Caidok navan 2.30 12/1 (365) 1 pt EW
Mick halford had a 13% strike rate with 2yos last year. Which yielded a profit of 13.25 pts to level stakes. His horses are often overlooked as debutants, however the quality in which he is receiving is slowly going up, year after year, imo he is a stable worth keeping an eye on.
This looks a maiden of quality however caidok is not lacking it himself, although in lesser known colours, he was a 175,000gns purchase as a foal. Is Reportedly working well, showing plenty of pace and I’d be hopeful he’ll be good enough to get involved over the minimum trip of 5f first time up here. – 2
13th June. 12.15am
Currently been waiting all day for a drift on well of wisdom in the 2.05 at Sandown. 9/2 2pt EW. Despite being top weight he has some very good form on his travels, and should be fit enough today. Giving over a stone to the fav won’t be easy work, however he has a credible win chance with it hard for me to see him out of the frame. Oh purple reign is one to note in the race, he has come down to a mark of 95, it won’t be long before he reaches a mark he can win off. He wants atleast 7f. He’s not a pretty watch as he’s ridden away early, however he keeps finding off the bridle and is certainly not one to be laying in running if he looks beaten. +10.8
13th June Mrs bouquet 2.30 Goodwood 5/1 (lads) 1pt EW. Mrs bouquet had sove very solid form last season, working her way up from nurseries, and progressing to win a conditions race at goodwood over 5f, finishing the race well, she comfortably beat r faheys mighty spirit, who has subsequently ran well at listed level when finishing 5th beaten under 2L. And was 2nd in a similar conditions race, where the winner went on to win at listed level in France. The way Mrs bouquet finishes her races, the step back up to 6f will be very much to her liking.
Although she is stepping up a level in opposition, to combat that, she receives an allowance for being the only 3yo in the field. With her prior runs built up in nurseries, she won’t be lacking for experience, and I think she can put her allowance to good use and finish the race well, to go close here. – 2
2.35 Doncaster Dakota Gold 9/4. 2 pts win. I was a huge fan of Dakota gold last season, a strike rate of 5 from 7 last year can only be admired when you take in to consideration the 3 big handicap fields he destroyed in a row. He moved up to listed level and duly obliged from danzeno, with the classy perfection back in 4th. he was narrowly beaten giving away weight to maid in India, who has come out recently to Frank the form by finishing close up to the classy liberty beach.
On Dakota golds final start of the season at listed level, he made all over 5f and ran on gamely to be unchallenged at the line. He picks things back up on Sunday at Doncaster over what I deem to be his best trip of 5f, I’d expect him to make all here, pick up where he left off and be very hard to catch. – 2
Lavenders blue duke of Cambridge coral 6/1 2pts EW – 4
Russian emperor Hampton court Hills 4 pts EW 7/2 wed. NAP +17.5
18th 1.50 ascot. Regal Reality 13/2 0.5pt EW various. Regal reality ran some very good races last year in much tougher company than this. Hopefully he will appreciate the drop in grade here, he has plenty of ability however he can really get himself worked up before a race, the current race day conditions can only be a benefit to his temperament. All being well he should be there at the finish.. +0.31
08.58 Regal Reality. 0.75 EW 9/1. Go back in at 9/1. +.0.94
19th June Al dabaran queens vase. 5/1 BFSB. 2.5pts EW. I like Al dabaran here, he is a quality horse and although he has ran more times than most of the opposition, he is unexposed at this trip with improvement to come from a mark which is already high enough to go very close. His form in France when finishing just infront of the summit, (who beat Victor ludorum 1st time up then finished 2nd in the French 2000 guineas) is of a very good standard in relation to this race, in every start he has stuck at the task all the way to the line, and I’m subsequently looking forward to seeing what he can do back over here and up in trip. He has form on soft and I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t there at the finish. +0.63
One Master. Diamond jubilee 7/1. 2.5 pts EW. Bet365
She should like the underfoot conditions here, she came a very good 2nd over the same course and distance on champions day. This race doesn’t look as deep to my eye. I think she has very chance. I’d be disappointed if she’s out fo the frame. – 5
5.15 leopardstown one Voice coral 6/1 2pts EW. Very solid run recently, in a race of which looks as strong as this renewal. She should be able to back up that run and go well in a race which she’s fully entitled to be involved at the finish. To my eye she looks considerably overpriced. +14.4 pts
In the same race. I have been waiting on seeing if the going would ease a little. With 9mm of rain and the ground now Good, Good to Yielding in places, I think its worth taking a bit of cover on Joseph O’Brien’s A New Dawn. 1pt EW @ 9/1 Bet 365 I don’t think she liked the ground first time up on her reappearance and the trip was a shade short, I’m willing to write that run off completely, and give her a chance at 9/1. she has the run under her belt, I can see improvement for the step up in trip, and the ground is no longer on the fast side. I see no reason why everything isn’t in line for her to run a much better race, she’s a danger to our selection which has shortened dramatically over night and could well run in to the places along side her. – 2pts
22nd June Limerick 5.40 Luis van zandt 1pt EW 8/1 hills. Luis van zandt has had a Change of Trainer from Tony Martin to Gavin Cromwell, and runs here off a mark of 91 with a 5 pound claimer on board. He went off at 9/4 favourite on his last start over 2m4 on soft ground in a similar handicap hurdle where the ground softened dramatically through the day and only weakened his chances. He was a non runner the previous 2 times pulled due to simular ground. He has previously ran considerably better on decent ground of which he finally gets here. The drop back to 2 miles will help, and I can see him doing a lot better today. +0.6
22nd june 6.10 Limerick. Mystery stowaway 10/1 0.5pts EW bet 365. Mystery stowaway has been tried highly and running in much better contests than this over 2 miles where everything seemed to be happening to quickly around her, the step up to 2m6 will be to her benefit. Over the longer trip, in lesser company she should find things a little easier here. The short priced favourite looks a decent horse in context to this race, without looking unbeatable, and everybody knows what can happen over obstacles. +0.5
23rd June 2.15 Beverley Perfect rose 1pt EW 6/1 hills. Perfect rose gets an opening mark of 77 on her handicap debut, I believe that to be lenient, she has had quite the break of over a year, however that is factored into her current price. Last time out she was seen coming 2nd to Kevin Ryan’s Rhea who was subsequently only beaten half a length next time out in a listed race. The 3rd readily won a maiden next time out, The 4th was considered good enough to run in the Chesham, with the 6th subsequently runner up in the Lingfield oaks trial. If perfect rose is ready enough first time out this season, she may be good enough to take this. At the prices I think it’s worth the risk. – 2
23rd June 6.40 roscommon Quamino 15/2 1pt EW his hurdle mark is 25 pounds lower than his chase mark. He has been kept in good company and acquitted himself OK over fences. This is a drop in class of which he should appreciate, if he shows his old spark here, he’s thrown in. +9.38
25th June 3.15 haydock. Under the stars 11/2 1pt EW (b365) more exposed than some of the others however she sets the standard of the one to beat on paper. They have to come up to her level and it’s not guaranteed that they will. Boomer rates a danger, however she disappointed 1st time up and is best watched. +6.19
26th June 6.45 curragh Gee Rex 13/2 (lads) 5 places 0.5pt EW. He is one I have been watching and he Ran a nice race last time out upped to 7f. He has gone up 3 pounds for that effort, however he is stepping up another furlong to the mile which is where I see him being at his best. He’s capable of showing up well here. There’s one to note of Aiden’s in the race who could be thrown in on her handicap debut having ran in much stronger races (love bracelet) she is one to watch for me, but if anyone already fancied her, I wouldn’t put you off. It shouldn’t be long before she wins one of these. However she may benefit from today’s experience. So I’ve settled on Gee Rex to use his experience today. +4.06
8.34PM update after much consideration and the 5 places available I think it’s worth going in double handed and adding love lace should you have the account available. She was as big as 9/1 when I first considered her. But 7s imo is still fine, now I have looked in more detail. Sky bet. Love bracelet 7/1 0.5pts EW 5 places. – 1
27th June. 5.25 curragh Elusive King 0.5pt EW @ 8/1 (coral). Elusive King caught the eye when running in a decent handicap at Naas last year finishing 4th behind in from the cold. He came out this year in what looked like a very strong handicap to me with good quality unexposed horses finishing infront of him that imo will win plenty of races between them. Elusive King beaten 3 1/4 lengths has kept his mark of 85 which I believe to be workable. He’s dropping back to 6f here where there looks to be plenty of pace on, he will be doing all his best work late and hopefully can arrive on the premises at the tail end of the race.+0.5
11.25 La Test De Buch
Spirit Of The Bay 0.5pts EW
13/2 EW (b365). Spirit of the bay has previously ran in better races than this, she finished a length behind Femme D’action and 5L behind the winner Thrilling in a listed Hurdle at Auteuil in September, she was out quickly again running well enough finishing 6L behind the useful president line. However she then bombed over fences which is likely why she is priced the way she is here, that was her 3rd run in a short space of time, I would personally be willing to forgive that and hopefully she can go well here with the benefit of a break.
July 1st Leopardstown 1.55. Know it all 9/2 1pt EW various. She’s a solid horse who I have been watching for a good while. She was Last seen over 7f, I believe there is more to come now stepped up to a Mile. With the run under her belt, I’d be hoping she goes close here and is involved at the business end. Ridenza was a NR in the Irish 1000 guineas when priced at 16/1, is very interesting and worth watching for similar contests in the near future, if any one wanted to take a chance on her I wouldn’t put you off. However know it all is the one for me here. +5.4
2nd July Sligo 6.10 Canford light 12/1 0.5 pt EW PP (4 places) I’m willing to take a small punt on Canford light here. He makes his handicap debut of a mark of 59. He had previously ran in maidens over 7f where he didn’t show too much however looked like he’d benefit from a step up in trip. He was then rightly stepped up in trip to 10f however it was in way to deep waters in a pretty decent maiden over 10f when priced at 250/1. He ran as you’d expect. Imo They may have been fishing for a lowly handicap mark. He goes up even further to 12f here and in to handicap company where the waters aren’t so deep, he will be able to show his level of ability here and if he’s good enough he may well get involved. It will be interesting to see if any money at all comes for him in the market that may indicate to his chances. If its not today, he’s one to keep an eye on for future engagements. – 1
Epsom 2.25 Safe voyage 6/4 bet365 3 pts win quite simply I think he’s better than these. The form of his 2nd last time out fully entitles him to win. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t. +4.5
4th July Naas 4.40 Fame and aclaim 7/1. 0.5pts EW (bet365). His form when running in a maiden behind ten year ticket where he went off fav has worked out very well . 6f was too short for him next time out. Up to a Mile on his handicap debut it was a much improved effort and he shaped well when 3rd behind so suave running off a mark of 82. He retains that Mark today and with a run under his belt over his correct trip of a mile, I’d like to think he can get involved at the business end of the race. +0.2
5th July Chantily 2.10 (4places) Ocean atlantique 13/2 0.5 pts EW. Pao alto 6/1 0.5pts EW. Its a big field and there are lots of unexposed horses, however I think the pick of them are pao alto and ocean atlantique. Imo the pair of them are very good. Pao alto has more tactical pace and touch button acceleration. ocean atlantique is a thorough stayer with a touch of class. They’re Going to need a bit of luck in running here however I’m hopeful that atleast one of the 2, may well turn over the short priced fav Victor ludorum, who tbh I think has been the best of a fairly average bunch over a mile and may well run into 1 or 2 here. Ecrivain may improve for the step up in trip, his run last time was too bad to be true. – 2
2.30 roscommon Bolivar 0.5pt EW @ 12/1 I highly rate napa Valley who he ran into on debut. There was a bit of money for Bolivar that day backed down from 10/1 to 4/1 at the off. He ran ok but definitely shaped as if today’s step up in trip to 12f would be right up his street. There could be a few useful horses in here, and he may run into one. however Bolivar is not without a chance himself. +7.5
Pontefract 12.45 Aiya 0.5 pt EW 8/1 Skybet (4 places) Aiya has been a bitter disappointment since being purchased for £250,00 at the breeze up sales. From a peak of 84 he’s now dropped down to his last winning mark of 73 which was also at the same track. I’d be hopeful that he can do better today from his revised mark and back up to 12f. – 1
7th july 6.00 kilarney Peregrine run 1pt win 11/4 bet 365. Peregrine run comes here having had a prep on the flat, he may well have a fitness advantage as well as being a very consistent mid 150s horse. Robin des foret may well travel into the race looking like the winner, however he doesn’t find a great deal off the bridle. if peregrine run is within 2 lengths coming to the last, I’d fancy my chances. +2.75
8th July 4.40 Newbury Nelson gay 5/1 bet 365 1pt EW Nelson gay ran on debut going off fav in a hot maiden behind the lir jet. He shaped as if a step up to 6f would suit. (the 4th behind him has subsequently won) He went on to ascot and ran in the norfolk over 5f finishing once again behind the lir jet back in 10th place a neck behind the classy eye of heaven. I think it was a very strong race and the pace set was a very strong on. He’s back down to class 5 Novice company here and also up to 6f with Ryan moore on board. I think everything’s right for him to run to the best of his ability. I’d like to think that he’s good enough to be bang there at the business end of the race. +0
9th July Newmarket 4.10 Embihaar. 1 pt win 5/2 various she is a classy horse, ideally she will go off in front, she may not be caught however if something comes to her, she’s very game in a battle. Hopefully she is ready to go first time up and will take all the beating. – 1
1.50 new market
Al Suhail. 1pt EW 5/1. (hills) I like Al Suhail a lot. This time, I’d be willing to write off a very poor run in the guineas, Now that he’s dropped down to listed class there will be no excuses. There are a couple of unexposed types at the forefront of the market, however he still has the potential to put a disappointing run aside and progress himself. If he brings his A game here, he should be bang there at the finish. +6
11th July Ascot 2.05 Melnikova 9/2 1pt EW (4 places) the form of her maiden has worked out very well. I’d be willing to write off her next run. She makes her handicap debut in a class 3 off a mark of 83. She is potentially in here very lightly with the likes of stylistique who she beat on debut currently on a mark of 106 and Run wild who was back in 4th who is currently rated 109. I’d be hopefully that Melnikova can be involved at the business end here. – 2
3.35 Newmarket Threat 0.5pts EW @10/1 bet 365 (4 places) the drop back to 6f will help. I think the further they go, the further golden horde will beat him. However at 6f, I don’t think there’s a great deal between them. So therefore Threat offers a bit of EW value imo at current odds of 10/1 with 4 places.-1
4.55 Auteuil. Pacha SENAM. 0.5pt EW 5/1 (bet365). A bit of a risky one, so if anyone wants to sit it out, I wouldn’t knock it. PACHA SENAM hasn’t managed to complete in his last 2 starts. However he showed me absolutely plenty 2 starts ago before he tipped up, to make me think that he would be very capable of being involved in the finish of a race like this, providing of course that he can have a clear round. +0
9.07am go back in on pacha senam 0.5pt EW 5/1 Bet365 with resplendor out, who I personally saw as one of the main dangers. With Bet 365 Keeping pacha senam at 5/1 without him in the field. It would be rude not to go back in. +0
Bloodstone 7/1 (bet 365)
0.5pt EW bloodstone ran well enough against 2 quality horses in ptp’s finishing 2nd behind ferny Hollow and then it sure is, showing that jumping isn’t an issue. He bombed on a bumper behind energumene after a long break. Then subsequently ran ok in a good Novice hurdle over 2m4 at roscommon. He steps up to 2m6 here which he has shown he gets in his latter ptp, this looks to me like a lower quality race, the short price fav is not unbeatable, and I’d like to think he can go well enough here. – 1
6 45 leopardstown Gin blossom 9/4 bet365 2pts win. Koola boola and gin blossom imo have the standout form going into the race. The step back up in trip will help gin blossom, who was flying at the finish last time. Bestrella who was a neck behind koola boola last time had already been beaten 5L behind gin blossom over the longer trip. So the fast finish of gin blossom last time wasn’t just her mowing down tired horses, she had the form to do it. She had to go the long way round being switched where nothing was in her favour. The 3 pounds she receives today negotiates the slightly worse terms here, but the longer trip should see improvement from last time and therefore I’d be very hopeful that the form can be reversed. she is not slow, however cheek pieces are fitted for the 1st time here to sharpen her up, therefore she shouldn’t be left as much to do, imo she has every chance of winning here. +4.5
4.25 haydock Fahad 0.5pt EW 8/1 Bet365 4 places 1/4. he drops slightly back down in trip here which will suit and most importantly back down to class 5 level. He has been dropped a pound for last times debut in handicap company. Off a mark of 76 in a weaker race over a more suitable trip, I think 8/1 under estimates his chances. I’d like to think that he can be competitive here and therefore be involved at the business end of the race. 9.41 PM. After re watching watching all the video analysis of the horses in the race, I have decided that…. – 1
Mafia power 6/1 bet 365 0.5 pts EW 1/4 is also a bet in the same race. I’m very happy to go in with the pair here. They have related form having been closely matched in the same race, Mafia power ran in a far stronger race than this on his next start and ran with great credit, he gets in here off a 2 pounds lower mark than fahad, to me they are BOTH standout picks in the race, we are getting the 4 places rather than the 5, however we are getting higher odds on the win and better place terms with a 1/4. I expect both to be involved at the business end of the race. +3.75
2.15 Newbury Mighty gurkha 0.5 pts EW 15/2 888 sport. 7/1 with 365 and Skybet. Mighty gurkha bolted up on debut then ran a solid race in the windsor castle behind some very nice types, He steps back up in trip to 6f here which should suit, Down to a weaker listed contest i’d like to think that he should be involved at the business end of the race. +0.25
3.05 York. Dark lady 16/1. Shades of blue 14/1. Both 0.5 pts EW 5 places sky bet. I like them both. Its a very tough and competitive big field race, however the prices are right. The trips fine for dark lady, shades of blue in particular, has been crying out for a step up back to 6f. Its a drop in class for both. They are both from are horses to follow, who have just happened to find the same opportunity. I’d be hopeful they can be involved at the business end of the race here. -0.10
5.15 curragh Magnanimous 5/1 5 places (EW extra, bet 365) 1pt EW I think he is considerably overpriced in this market with the 5 places, effectively imo giving you a free shot at the win. He has all the right future entries, his form last time has been franked by the blue panther being narrowly beaten by the rail way stakes winner, to glory ran well in the same very strong race, and georgio vasari won his maiden well on his next start. I think the fav of today’s race is pretty useful also and has the right entries, however magnanimous has his own legitimate chance of which his price under estimates, imo he should be involved in the business end of the race. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s out the 5. And not suprised if he managed to win. +0
8.15 ballinrobe Shumaker 0.5pts EW 6/1 Bet365 Shumaker wasn’t upto much last time he ran on the flat, however he has been very progressive over hurdles lately going up 32 pounds in a matter of months. He gets in here off his lowly flat rating of 45 with a 5 pound claimer on board. If he manages to show the same attitude to which he has over obstacles of late, he could well be thrown in, and imo is worth taking a chance on. +3.75
Myrcella 0.5pts EW @ 7/1
(Bet 365) 4 places 1/4 she’s consistent but seems to bump into a couple. I expect her to attempt to make all here, cheek pieces are applied and i’d be hopeful that it may be the key to her sticking to her job and finally getting her head infront. She’s on a winnable mark, there shouldn’t be any hard luck stories out the front, so if she’s good enough, she should be involved at the finish. +0.38
1.30 leopardstown Fernando vichi 4/1 2pts EW Bet 365 he went down by just a nose on debut to Jessica Harrington Los andes, the winner is seemingly highly regarded having an entry in the the group 1 national stakes. Fernando vichi should come on from his debut run however imo even a repeat of that effort may well be good enough here. His future entry in the futurity stakes group 2 shows that despite his long odds on debut, it wasn’t a big surprise. The current fav has all the entries but was 2 places behind our selection last time. The way he stayed on last time, I would be hopeful that Fernando vichi can confirm the form here and take victory. I would be disappointed appointed if he is out of the places. +7.5
Tramore 6.15 Memories remain 5/1 bet 365 1pt pts EW. Memories remain has yet to win a race, however has some very solid form, she finished 3rd last time, headed before the last over 2m6 beaten just over 20L to soldiers Hill in imo what was a considerably stronger race. The drop back to 2 miles will strongly suit here, and I’d be disappointed if she can’t be involved at the business end of the race. – 2
7.15 tramore. Knock on steel
6/1 Bet365. 0.5 pts EW knock on steel won his maiden chase last time and revert back to hurdles here off a mark of 104. Convara who he beat last time was going well last time when he tipped up at the last in a decent little race won by David’s charm. I’d like to think that knock on steel can be involved at the business end of the race here. – 1
3.05 Gowran Never forgotten 0.5pts EW @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) so wonderful is a very obvious one here, however even at this level it is somewhat possible that she won’t get the strong pace what she needs. She can run a huge race when they go off to fast in far better company, however run a stinker when the race isn’t ran to suit. Never forgotten has ran with great credit in 2 maidens, firstly behind the highly tried roca roma on debut then 2nd behind the dermot weld trained newcomer Etneya in a decent little race with a few nice types behind her. Never forgotten has a future entry in a group 3 race over 12f at Cork so I’d be willing to take a chance that there could well be more to come from her here and be hopeful that she may even give so wonderful something to think about. +4.2
1.00 York Oti ma boati 5/1 sky bet 0.5pts EW big drop in class here into a class 4 handicap, which I’d like to think that she’d strongly appreciate and can be involved in the finish here. +3
4.40 curragh Nulifier 10/1 Bet365 0.5 pts EW we backed elusive King EW in the race he ran in last time, before the race I thought that nulifier was the one to beat. I’d expect him to come on considerably for the run, and would be hopeful that he can see the race out better and be involved at the business end of the race. – 1
4.10 galway Wembley 11/8 (Boyle sports) 2 pts win. wembley was very well backed and ran a nice race when out battled by the very smart mac swiney. I really rate the winner and think the race itself will work out very well. The 1st 4 home in that race had all the entries, and I would be disappointed if Wembley can’t win this and go on to bigger and better things in the near future. Imo He may up to placing at the least in group company before the seasons out, So I’d be very hopeful that he can shed his maiden tag here and take all the beating. -2
2.15 goodwood Encipher 8/1 sky bet 0.5 pts EW 4 places. I like Al madhar a lot, who beat encipher a neck 2 starts ago. They were closely matched again last time in a very strong race. Not a single horse in here would have been anywhere near the places in that race imo, so I wouldn’t knock the finishing position. However, frustratingly the handicapper has gone and put him up 6 pounds for effectively being tailed off. If he hadn’t been put up 6, I’d be very keen. As it stands he’s drifted to a price where I’m willing to take a chance on him taking to account the weight attached. dropped into handicap company I think he’s the best horse in the race, it’s just whether or not he can win off a pretty high mark of 98. Hopefully he can progress further and be involved at the business end of the race here. +0.3
31st July Sir busker 2.45 goodwood 7/1 4 places (betfred/boyles) 1pt EW he was very unlucky last time losing all of his momentum over 7f when coming with a winning run. He’s gone up 5 pounds how ever he’s up to the mile and I personally think he has a very solid chance of winning in a competitive race. -2
6.15 galway My sister Sarah 12/1 EW 5 places William Hill 2pts EW as you can tell by the stake. I’m very keen on my sister Sarah here in a handicap hurdle over 2m6. I personally think that if she wasn’t Brought down in the Martin pipe by column of fire, that she would have placed at the bare minimum, as I know just how much she finds off the bridle. She’s had a pipe opener on the flat over a trip too short but ran with great credit. I have been waiting for this opportunity to back her over 2m6-3m in a handicap hurdle for a long while, and I’m all over her here. If I’m wrong then so be it, but I’ll personally be disappointed if she Dosen’t ATLEAST hit the frame. +2.8
Total Stakes 192pts +129.08pts. +72.44% ROI as of 28th september.
+£2581.60 to a £20 stake
Leopardstown 4.30 Too soon to panic 6/1 bet365 0.5 PTS EW I like federica Sophia of dermot weld who chased home too soon to panic before landing her maiden. Too soon to panic managed to beat her before going on to run in a strong handicap, the form of that race last time out with Elizabethofaragon and wilderness is very solid with both the above coming in to that race with resounding wins. I see no reason why bella Brazil will turn around that form here. In that race The likes of katiba was back in 6th there, so Imo the race has a strong look to it and should work out well at this level. Therefore I’m willing to take a chance on too soon to panic being good enough to be involved at the business end of the race here and confirm her superiority over bella Brazil. +0.1
Shades of blue
2pts win @5/2 Paddy power
Shades of blue imo is the best of these. She has been tried highly in the past, and drops down to the easiest race she’s ran in since last year, where she came 2nd in the very same race.
To my eye, This years renewal looks weaker than last years, The ground is no issue , she should be fully fit, and this is most definitely her trip.
They’ve opted for the first time headgear here, There are no excuses, quite simply I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t win. -2
1pt EW 5/1 William Hill 4 places HMS president has been running very solid races in considerably better handicaps than this. Hes in here at class 4 level, his form reads well, and he should be very competitive here. I’ll be disappointed if hes out the 4, with him having a very credible win chance. Mafia power looks to be a clear danger, he was hampered last time after going up 10 pounds to a mark of 85 for winning a class 5 nicely. However, HMS president is the one for me here. +0
4.15 dundalk Baby Zeus @11/2 1pt EW (4 places 1/4) bet365. His form is very solid, his run last time when finishing 3rd behind the smart red Kelly, has been massively cranked by sunchart and emperor of the sun. Baby Zeus should be very competitive here off a mark of 91. Broke slowly, given no chance. -2
Caroline dale 1.5pts EW at 7/2 betvictor
Sardinia sunset 1 pt EW @13/2 (hills) they both have very solid form, although sardinia sunset was well held last time out, it was in a strong race which has little comparison to this. With her sights lowered here, i expect her to uphold the form with country carnival which should see her into the places, caroline dale has ran a stormer every race and has finished just in front of sardinia sunset at a higher level, this is the weakest contest she’s ran in imo. There are plenty of unexposed winners in the race, however our 2 selections set the standard that they have to rise to, imo I expect both to go well here, we could easily have a win and a place. -2.19
1.00 tipperary Voice of hope 0.5 pts ew 8/1 bet365 voice of hope was rated 74 on the flat at his peak, and couldn’t get anywhere bear the places in handicaps off Mark’s in the high 60s. He made his hurdles debut finishing 6th. 11L behind little brother at balinrobe. He made a little bit of a mess of the last and faded to 6th on the run in. This is a really poor race, if he benefits for the experiance and has a clear round, hes shown as least as much on that start as the rest of them have before, while he’s open to further improvement and any, could well see him go close -1 Fell
2.45 York Sir busker 13/2 1pt EW Paddy power 5 places for reasoning please see the July thread. Nothings changed since then. +0.63
York 3.15 one voice 13/2 1pt win insurebet 2 places (money back if 2nd) william hill. I’d be in the big minority here. But I dont think love is the superstar that people are making out. I strongly question what she has beaten to date. Therefore i’m willing to take her on with one voice, with the backup of money back if she is 2nd. She’s the best horse love has faced this season imo, the step up in trip will suit, and I wouldnt be surprised at all if she gives love something to think about here. -1
Roca Roma 4/1
1pt EW 4/1 bet365. She showed alot of talent on debut and is obviously highly regarded from both the entries in which she’s taken up, and the supplementary fee paid to put her into the irish 1000 guineas. She ran poorly last time, but managed to drop 2 pounds down to a mark of 90. this is a big drop in grade, of which she should strongly appreciate . It would be disappointing if she can’t show up well here. +5
York 3.45 friday Dingle 0.5pts EW 10/1 William hill. Dingle showed promise on his debut. Then was put set to line up in a race which richard hannon uses at goodwood for nice types. He was the better fancied of the 2 hannon had declared for the race, with the other who was left in to run, duly running a stormer. The reason he was a nr there was due to the ground being on the firm side, there are no such issues here. I’d be hoping he’d be able to leave his debut form behind and go well here. +0.75
2.50 naas Giorgio Vasari 18/1 0.5 pts EW (4 places) William hill he was on a steep upward curve before running in what imo was the strongest 2yo race of the season. There was no shame in the result there, such as the competitive nature of the race. Although this is deeper than the races which he has won previously, I’d still like to think that he can continue on an upward curve here and be involved. He should be prominent and be bang there with 2f to go, hopefully he can see out his race and not be ran out of the 4 here. It wouldnt be a complete shock to me, if he manage to keep his head infront. -1
3.05 sandown. billesden brook. 1pt EW at 5/1 betvictor. She should be very competitive here, she should be staying on late, and I’d be hopeful that she can get up in the shadow of the post. +0
2.20 naas Baby zeus 1pt EW 5/1 (5 places) Bet victor. Please see last time.
Hopefully this time baby zeus will break better from the stalls and just as importantly he can be put into a better position during the early stages of the race, so that he will have a win chance. -2
5.27 dieppe. Horse maha 1.5pts EW 4/1 bet365. He was going very well on debut when he outjumped the horse infront, and subsequently unseated via going into the back of him. I’d be confident that he would have gone very close there. Last time out he was held right up and made up a huge ammount of ground once the leaders had already flown for home, imo with a more prominent ride, he should be going very close here. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s out the 3, and wont be surprised at all if he puts his prior experience to good use and can get of the mark in the juvenile hurdling ranks. +7.5
15/2 EW (4 places)
1pt EW I like golden horde alot, he’ll go out and attempt to make all, he didn’t appreciate the step up in distance last time, and imo he has a bit about him, where when something comes to him, to date hes been pretty generous with what he finds off the bridle. I’d be hopeful that in a very competitive race, that he can find for pressure and may be able to steal this and just stay infront at the line. +0.88
la teste de buch
1pt EW @4/1
Paddy power. He has ran very consistently at a good level, his last 2 runs were imo in stronger races than today. Hes closely matched with the fav ziegfred on a line through natural path. I personally dont thing Ziefried progressed his form to win last time, I think it was an average race compared to the one which Charlesquint ran in. Arguably charlesquint did more there in finishing 3rd. I think the prior form of the pair is the best in the race, and subsequently I’ll be disappointed if charlesquint finishes out the 3, I wont be surprised at all if he managed to get his head infront here. -0.2
4.00 longchamp Grocer jack W/O hurricane dream and dawn intello. 9/2 1 pt win. Bet 365. I have the 2 that we’re betting without as the best of the french, hurricane dream shades it and is the one to beat imo. Grocer jack the german raider boasts some smart form (receiving weight) with the likes of barney Roy and nagano gold. Having previously ran a stormer finishing 4th in the german derby (with drugs in his system). That form may leave him infront of the chasing pack. Maybe even infront of the 2 were betting without. So at 9/2 I think it’s worth taking a small chance on him being good enough without what I perceive to be the best 2 of the french. If my interpretation of the form book is correct, Imo you’re basically getting 9/2 on grocer jack in a match bet to beat fantastic spirit. -1
6/1 william hill althiqa has been a model of consistency, this is her grade and imo herself and cloak of spirits have the pick of the form, at 6/1 i believe that althiqa is the best value in the race, I’d be disappointed if she is out of the 4, and not surprised at all, if she manages to get her head Infront here. +0.2
5.30 cork. Ace aussie 13/2 bet365 1pt EW I have respect for colotlir sergeant, it wont be long before he will be winning his maiden, however he hasn’t managed to win yet yet he’s priced accordingly. The form of ace aussie debut has worked out very well indeed, I like Wembley and mac Swinney alot with the pair finishing just behind our selection here, Ace aussie has the best form on offer priced up at 13/2. Any improvement at all, should see him go very close. +6.09
Longchamp 4.55. Gannat. 1pt EW bet365 4/1
She has ran well giving away weight, before winning nicely last time against a few of these which face her again today, this is more competative, however imo the terms of today’s very competitive race makes her well treated and gives her every chance of getting her head infront here.
Both Gannat and her stablemate Genola I’m lead to believe are open for private sale, and regardless of that, they are being targeted towards the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival for current trainer Alain couetil. He has rolled the dice today however regardless of todays result, The pair of them are worth noting as they come out of bumper company into mares novice hurdle races in the near future. Either or both may even end up in a top yard on these shores shortly. +4.8
Frenetic 1pt EW 7/1 (4 places)
Skybet. I really like frenetic, on a line through miss amulet, I dont see why she is 7/1 here. I see frenetic as more of 7/2 chance myself. Her form is rock solid, i see no excuses why she cant perform at her best, and I’ll be disappointed if she is out of the 4 here . I think she’ll go close. -2
2.00 leopardstown. No speak Alexander 0.5pts EW 5/1. Unibet (if you have the option to use 1 or more uni-boosts to suit your stake, avail and take 11/2) Her forms solid, her win on her 2nd start was no fluke, she won it nicely and the 2nd has gone on the win a group 3. Her run in france last time was of a good standard. I see no excuses here, quite simply Imo She should be going close in this company. +0
2.55 longchamp. English king 11/2 (888 sport)1pt EW Mogul 7/1 1 pt EW (coral) imo on the balance of all their form they are the 2 best horses in the race, i see no reason why they cant perform to their best, and I believe they are both overpriced, imo serpentine was given a very soft lead at Epsom and was subsequently flattered, so we’re going in here double handed looking for a win AND a place. I’ll be disappointed if neither goes very close. +6.75
Hype 0.5 pts EW
6/1 bet365 hype was running a very solid race in what imo was the strongest maiden of the year, when he got badly hampered, lost all momentum then still finished handily in 8th place. imo he he would have finished a close enough 4th or 5th there. The form of the race is absolutely rock solid, even 8th looks good in this context. So I’d be very hopeful that he can go well here, confirm the promise that he showed on debut and be involved in the business end of the race. +0.1
8.30 dundalk Bolivar 3/1 bet 365 1pt win. We backed him in his maiden at 12/1 and he followed up again nicely next time. I dont think that he’s a certainty here, however I think he is value at 3/1. I have respect for order of Australia, he has ran in high quality races with great credit. But where I think the value with bolivar lies is that he could be allowed a freebie out front here, if allowed to dictate, in my eyes he would become automatic fav in running, he sees out his races well and is not going to fall into a hole. I believe he is still progressing, I’d be hopeful that he can take this and move on to bigger and better things, he was taken out of a group 3 last week due to the ground, that’s the sort of level i believe he is. If that’s correct, he should be going very close here. -1
2.00 Gowran La Jaconde 0.5pts EW 5/1 bet365 she may be 2nd string on jockey bookings, but certainly isn’t on race course form. Her maiden has worked out very well indeed. She stated in well in the closing stages of the race, I’d like to think she will have learned alot there and will strip sharper for the run. She should have a very credible chance of being involved at the business end of the race. –1
ETNAYA 5/1 1 PT EW Bet365
EPONA PLAYS 1 PT EW Bet365
4 Pts Total.
We’re going in double handed, looking for a win AND a place. +6
3.10 listowel Cerberus 1pt win 10/3 (hills / betvictor) firstly it’s worth noting that fujimoto flyer planted her feet and refused to race at auteuil, she diddnt look like she wanted to be there against solo either, so although she has talent, I’ll be ruling her out straight away for the foreseeable future. Cerberus however, jumps very well, contrary to the report below, I believe him to be a pretty uncomplicated ride, he has had a recent run and should be in decent shape. A mark of 138 without being lenient is fine as he’s the best horse in the race. I believe he possesses the experience and class to go very close. The stewards report below, is an interesting piece of reading. I personal think they have had this race in mind all along and expect him to go well here. -1
0.5pts EW 11/2 bet 365 figuero was extremely progressive before disappointing last time, I’d be of the opinion that he is worth another chance here. It’s a tough race, however if he puts in the performance he did on any of his 2 runs prior to last time, he should be strongly involved here. +3.44
4.30 listowel Ravenhill 0.5pts EW (5 places) 8/1 Hills/ Boyle’s . He is solid, he finished 2nd in this last year, he won the national hunt chase even though conditions may not have been to his liking, hes an uncomplicated ride who jumps well. And this is both his type of race and his level. Everything seems good But his mark of 153 is too high. However, Gordon has teamed up with Mr R James who won the trainer the Kim muir, to take a very valuable 7 pounds off his back. Imo he’s well worth his claim and he can make all the difference here. I expect ravenhill to go well and hopefully be involved at the business end of a very competitive race. As I’m typing this, he has drifted and the 10/1 with paddy power and the extra place is well worth taking. For recording purposes I’ll stick with the 8s that it was when I posted on Twitter. Fell. -1
4.15 Perth. La bague au roi 1pt win 9/4 888sport. ALL BUT FELL
3.25 perth. Stoners choice. 2pts EW 11/4 bet365. Has rock solid form in this context. The right handed track in this company looks exactly what’s required, he Should go extremely close here. And I’d be distraught if hes out of the places. Which would give a decent portion back should he manage to get beat in the finish. +6.88
3.20 listowel Meanformhair 0.5pts win 8/1 Tresorier 0.5 pts win 8/1 Bet365 tresorier is in fine form, he finished 2nd at a big price then backed that up by winning next time out. He hasnt yet managed to win over this trip, however If he continues his sharp incline, he should be involved here. -1
Meanfomhair has very solid form at this level, he slightly disappointed as fav last time, however now it is more than factored into his price. Imo he should go off the likely fav. Good chance.
3.45 compiegne. Fusion de baune has ran consistently to a good level in france. and although francois nicolle has a decent winning pair in here, I believe that gardes la monnaie is over rated and has ran against lesser opposition to what fusion de baune has. His other runner falbala des motttes remains the one to beat. However collateral form dosent leave us far behind if fusion de baune runs to the best of her ability. We may well be going in on her EW here. I’m currently awaiting other books to add to the market. I’m not advising just yet. But keep an eye out.
Cloak of spirits
1pt EW (5 places)
11/2 SkyBet/hills she has the best form in the race, and also comes out best at the weights. Although imo 7f may be a slightly better trip for her, conditions here over a mile are in her favour. She holds foorat on French form, althiqa has showed that to be the pick of the form available, and that gives cloak of spirits a very solid ew chance here. Imo she should be a bet to nothing for the win. With the 5 places as a fallback. It would be no surprise to see her get her head infront. +6.8
Betfred/ unibet….. imo lucky Vega is a solid betting prospect here on the back of his irish form, I believe he has ran in very strong races, compared to some of the opposition which imo have beaten average horses by a distance. Lucky vega, despite the name, was unlucky himself last time, he didn’t get a clear run. His prior form says to me, that he would have been involved there. At current prices of 4/1, I believe that underestimates his chances of winning. Imo he should be a general 9/4 5/2 chance. Therefore we are going in here with a solid chance of getting the win. I see him arriving late to be bang there at the business end of the race. I’ll be very disappointed if he is out of the 3. -0.2
4.05 Auteuil. James Du Berlais 7/4 bet365 1pt win. I like this lad alot, he is rock solid, progressive, and imo one of the most exciting young hurdlers in france. I cant wait to see him go novice chasing, but back to the task ahead tomorrow over hurdles. I’m surprised that he has opened up at 7/4. imo this is more than fair. I see him as an even money chance. He has improved with each run, jumps, travels and finishes out his races well, I expect him to go extremely close here. -1
Curragh 3.05 Vocito 0.5pts EW 9/1 bet365. Before I talk about vocito. dearf jazz (20/1) is worth noting as I saw what the trainer did with red Pantz, he has done exactly the same here. 3 runs in maidens. 2 pounds over weight each time, and now 1st time in a handicap with the 7 pound claimer on board. Kf anyone wanted a small win bet, i wouldnt knock it, alternatively it’s worth noting should it come off, as I’m liking what james m barrett is doing. Now on to VOCITO the magnanimous form is good, the 4th snowy owl has had some very nice entries, and has been backed accordingly. Vocito finished just infront of him last time, while managing to keep the mark of 74. I’m happy with this, in this context of race, I see it as a winnable mark, I would be hoping that vocito can be involved at the business end of the race. -1
Just to note.
There is likely another selection today in the 2.00 at curragh.
Angel palm 2.00 curragh 0.5pt EW 11/2 bet365 I have been patiently waiting on her drifting out to the current price of 11/2. I like her. She dissapointed on debut, imo as there wasn’t enough pace on, staying will be her forte and she sees out the trip very well at the distance. However that form has worked out well, so she should be marked up on that effort. On her next start she confirmed her promise, and duly won her maiden nicely. This is a big step up in class, however I am of the opinion that she is on the incline. There should be pace in the race, I see further improvement from angel palm and I expect her to be involved here at the business end of the race. I also think she will likely go up to the mile after this, which imo would see further improvement. -1
4.50 bath. Zulu zander 0.5pts EW 8/1 bet365 (4 places) bath being my local track, I know Zulu zander pretty well, one of the main things at bath, is you need to handle the quick ground conditions, this is no problem for zulu zander. He won a decent race there after shaping well in the broclesby beforehand. In total he has been to the track 4 times, and has ran well on each occasion. He has dropped right down the handicap to 67 and has william Buick in the saddle here. The drop In grade down to class 6, the lowest mark he has ran off, the conditions to suit at the track he performs his best. All lead me to believe that he is overpriced here and i make him a bet. +5
3.00 Wincanton Sashenka 11/10 2 pts win. (Hills)
Sashenka has some useful form, she has ran into a couple of decent horses early on and would have got closer to a smart sort but for being hampered.
Last time out she was cruising and set for victory when she fell at the last. She just over jumped it, it happens, and it was not a characteristic mistake.
I expect her to get over that quickly, and get off the board here.
4.35 Naas. Ahandfullofsummers 1pt EW 4/1 with bet 365
She comes in to this with a huge drop in grade, she sets the standard here that the unraced horses will have to be smart to get to her. Her last run was disappointing however that was at a much higher level, her prior form reads well, and she comes in here fresh.
Dubai World Cup
The 4-year-old colt hitting the board in 11 of his 14 starts. The colt was last seen finishing second to Knicks Go in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – a repeat of his finish behind that horse in the Grade 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile two starts before.
Mystic guide won last year’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes against a field that included Jesus’ Team, however mystic Guide will attempt to make all, and over this longer trip and at the prices, I will take a chance that Jesus’s Team may get to him.
my selection here is…
Jesus’ Team 0.25 pts EW 6/1 PP (4 places)
$750,000, Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby
Ambivalent. Spending most of his 2-year-old season in stakes races, including a pair of thirds, the Constitution colt broke his maiden last month by 1 ½ lengths in a turf race at Santa Anita. That victory was enough to convince his connections to head to Dubai where he’ll be looking for his first stakes victory in his fifth stakes attempt.
Racing at Laurel Park for all-but one of his four starts, Lugamo won two of his races by a combined 10 ¼ lengths with all those starts coming at two. The colt ended last year with a third in the James F. Lewis III Stakes and has steadily been working his way toward getting ready for Dubai ever since. The colt will be taking his first official step on the Kentucky Derby trail here
My selections in this race are…
Lugamo 33/1 0.25pts EW PP (4 places)
Ambivalent 16/1 0.5 pts EW PP (4 places)
$1.5-million, Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen
Wildman Jack looks to become the fifth United States-based winner in the last six editions of the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. U.S. horses also won most runnings of the race from 2001 to 2010. Wildman Jack is very familiar with Meydan after spending last winter there and winning the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint Sponsored By Arabian Adventures as a prep for World Cup night before it was cancelled. Based in Southern California, Wildman Jack performed well on that circuit the rest of the year before running seventh in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Racing in the Grade 3 Palos Verdes on dirt two months ago, Wildman Jack convinced his connections to go for Dubai Golden Shaheen on dirt instead of the turf race on the card by winning the Palo Verdes by 4 ¼ lengths.
Yaupon won his first four starts as a 3-year-old last year, and impressed with open-length victories in the Grade 2 Amsterdam and Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes in the summer and fall. The inexperienced colt was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint to end his year and hasn’t raced since then, although he has been working steadily at the Fair Grounds. Yaupon is headed to Dubai after registering a couple of bullets (fastest workout of the day breezing that distance at the track) over the last month and trainer Steve Asmussen knows how to get horses ready for Dubai.
My selections here are…
Wildman Jack 0.25 pts EW @8/1 with PP (4 places)
Yaupon 0.5 pts win 9/2 hills.
Avant Garde, has been shipped to Dubai after finishing second to Fearless in the Grade 2 WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes to kick off 2021. Avant Garde has only run in four stakes races in his career and has hit the board in all but one of them, though this will be the toughest test he’s faced yet.
Snapper Sinclair has been a mainstay on the stakes scene since winning the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes in 2017 as a 2-year-old. He even made a brief, two-race appearance on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2018. He has never won a graded stakes — though he’s come close multiple times — and looks to change up his luck here. He won his 2021 debut Feb. 4 at Oaklawn Park, where he beat a few horses who have also done well in stakes race, and was second in December’s Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap, so he’s coming into this race in good shape.
My selections here are….
Avant Garde 0.25 pts EW @16/1 bet365
Snapper Sinclair 0.25 pts EW 16/1 hills
$1-million, Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint
Cowan is taking a big step up in class here in facing a group of experienced older horses as a 3-year-old, however gets the allowance. Cowan has been all about the second-place finishes in his last five starts, including the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November. He’d spent his last three starts on the Kentucky Derby trail and finished second by three-quarters of a length behind Pink Kamehameha in the Saudi Derby last time. I wouldn’t put anyone off him however, he was a poor starter last time, and if he doesn’t break on terms here, his cance is gone.
A trio of second-place finishes brings Extravagant Kid into this year’s Al Quoz Sprint. A winner of 14 of his 49 career starts, Extravagant Kid isn’t a stranger to the runner-up position, he has finished in the position 16 times. The seconds include his two starts before last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, where he broke that streak by finishing fourth behind Glass Slippers, beaten by only a length.
My selection here is …
Extravagant kid 16/1 0.25 pts EW PP (4 places)
24th – Unfortunately NO BET, it is poor quality racing, and I have genuinely spent hours today watching race replays to try and get a bet out, but again there is nothing for me.
Anyone working ahead to MEYDAN please feel free to use the trainers quotes thread, there is some useful information gathered that you may want to use towards forming your own selections. I will be putting up at least 1 bet on here for Meydan Saturday. .
If there is nothing much of note outside of Meydan before or on Saturday, I may elect to put selections for the whole Card in here, rather than the race Card selections thread.
3.15 Auteuil Haut les Coeurs 13/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
The 4yo French Champion Hurdle is ran at Auteuil today and the lightly raced Haut les Coeurs steps up in grade here, he finished just behind Teahupoo and good ball when on the wrong side of the track on debut, then he bolted up on his next start, this is a big step up, however he has a whole lot of potential and should be in the shake up here.
Chelt members are already on at 16s and again at 10s so there is no need to back again, however with the strength of bet I have placed myself on him Antepost, I feel the need to put him up again here for daily members.
1.55 Ganapathi 2 pts EW 5/1 (sky 8 places)
Ganapathi is a horse that i have taken a decent cut at for this race at considerably bigger odds. I think he is very well in at the weights off a mark of 140. I like the experience he has gained, everything is a positive for me here with him, I think he has a cracking chance in a very competitive race. I am expecting him to come there swinging on the bridle 2 furlongs out, then its down to luck in running.
1.55 Champagne platinum. 8/1 (7 places sky) 0.75 pts EW
2.30 Min 4/1 1.5 pts EW (betfred, bet365, pp)
3.05 Vinndication 12/1 0.5pts EW 0(5 places pp)
4.15 Martello Sky 0.5pts EW 50/1. Paddy power.
She is a strong stayer, if there is as much pace in the race as I think there is, she should be staying on late. She may well run into the places, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that she could pick the leader up. She is a long shot, but I do not believe that the standard set here is unachievable.
I may well put something else up tomorrow morning, as prices seem to peak mid morning,
2.30 Grand Roi 13/2 1pt EW bet365 (6 places)
Cheltenham Day 1
1.20 Appreciate It 1pt win 5/4 hills
3.05 Epatante 1.5pts EW 4/1 (4places) Sky, 365, PP
Aspire tower 0.75pts EW 16/1 5 places hills
3.40 Black Tears 0.5 pts EW 14/1 betvictor (4 places)
4.15 Youmdor 0.5 pts EW @16/1 betfred ( 6 places)
Her Indoors 0.25 pts EW 25/1 PP. (6 places)
There will not be a daily bet for tomorrow or Monday’s racing, As there will be a considerable amount of bets around the Cheltenham festival each day, as soon as the day of the race markets open.
3.20 Navan Indiana Jones 5/1 0.5pts EW various. He is a nice horse, I would have even given him a shout in one of the big chelt handicaps had he gone that way. He should improve with racing, and will make a lovely chaser, however moses has flung a good opportunity for him over hurdles here. His run last time was very useful, this is a drop in grade, and I would be very hopeful that he will be closely involved.
3.55 Gowran. Fan de Blues 0.5pts EW 17/2 Sky (5 places) I have been watching him for a long time and I do believe that he has a decent handicap in him. This is a drop into calmer waters here, the trip and ground is fine, and I would be very hopeful that he gives a good account of himself. It wont be long before he gets his head in front in a similar contest, and today may be the day.
4.50 Catterick. No Limitations 0.5pts EW 13/2 PP/ Hills/ Sky …
I know the horse pretty well that narrowly beat him last time – Premer Magic – and he is a solid yardstick.
The 4th Gottagottagetaway was only narrowly beaten by the fav cousin Pascal here the time before,
So I believe the difference in the prices are too wide, and therefore I’m willing to take a small chance on No Limitations here. If he runs to the level he ran to last time, where he out ran his odds, he should be involved at the finish. Any improvement at all, and he is bang there.
2.05 Exeter Amarillo Sky. 0.5 pts EW @ 11/2 Hills.
We backed him last time in a slightly weaker race on heavy ground where his finishing position was disappointing. However, he travelled well throughout the race, then was tenderly handled in the closing stages once his win chance had gone.
Imo he can improve upon that performance. He should appreciate the drier ground conditions having won his ptp on yielding and finishing in front of no risk des flos on good. Amarillo Sky may well be involved in the finish here, should he get a less sympathetic ride.
The next 9 days are going to be reasonably quiet – there is very little of note running until Cheltenham, and there will be multiple bets daily there.
Of course, anything in the mean time I will put up as usual. Tomorrow there is nothing of interest.
2:20 Doncaster – Rayna’s World 13/2 0.5pts EW pp…
This is a fair drop in grade for Raynas World, and she runs here off level weights. Everything in this field would have been tailed off in the race she ran in last time, and the pick of her form reads well. She was disappointing on her last visit to this track, however again it was a better race than this. I’m very willing to give her a chance in this lesser company, and wouldn’t be surprised at all should she be too good for them.
4.00 Punchestown. Doctor Duffy 9/1. Lynwood Gold 8/1. Both 0.5 pts EW bet 365
I don’t like the former’s trainer, however he is well handicapped over hurdles, and may bag him a few quid here. Lynwood Gold we intended to back last time before the meeting was abandoned. Improvement is expected up in trip.
2.30 Naas Defi Bleu 5/1 1pt EW 3 places Betfred/Paddy He has come back off a long lay off and has ran credibly over 2 miles. The 2nd time he fell, however was going well enough in 2nd at the time. Last time out over 3 miles, he ran credibly behind a couple of decent horses, whether he made a noise or not, they have decided to go for the first time tongue strap, and run him in a nice pot. He may show a little improvement here and the intermediate trip is no hindrance.
I’m going to wait for the morning, where I may make use of the insure bet market.
2.25 Kempton – Margaret’s Legacy 12/1 0.5 pts EW Bet365. He faces some classy flat horses here, however has the edge in race course experience. He is an excellent jumper of a hurdle, and I believe will attempt to make all – should he be given too much rope, he will be very hard to reel back in, especially with inexperienced horses sure to have their jumping put under pressure.
2.27 Chepstow – Crypto 9/2 0.5 pts EW Bet365/William Hill
Crypto was backed last time like defeat was out of the question. He makes his debut over fences off a mark of 112, over 2m3f. He is lightly raced and open to further improvement. Should he have a clear round, he should be strongly involved in this company.
3.35 Punchestown Lynwood Gold 5/1 bet 365 1 pt win.
Lynwood Gold has some useful form as a novice, and has improved considerably on the flat. He ran into a nice mare of Willie’s last time over hurdles and there was no disgrace in that, and he comes in here off the back of a run in the Cesarewitch. This is his 1st run in a handicap off a mark of 130, I believe the step up in trip will help, as will the drop in to handicap company. He should have every chance here.
2.20 southwell only the bold 6/1 0.5 pts EW paddy power/hills/sky
He needs to find improvement to win this, but you can disect the market leaders as not being a long way ahead, sending love has a rating, that is just unrealistic for what he has achieved, the form behind Valleres looks pretty poor.
Sir sholakov is in the free horses to follow, and he will improve for the step up in trip that be gets here, its price related to be backing against him here.
Ballingers corner will be dangerous if allowed to dictate, the form of her last run is that of a mid to late 120s horse, she is open to further improvement, however the standard seen isn’t unbeatable. No hubs no hoobs I do believe will pop up at a big price in a maiden hurdle, however imo he may well need a bit more experience yet and is likely to improve from this.
Our selection only the bold was beaten by one of nicky’s who was on a going day 1st time up, the 3rd paddy’s motorbike has done pretty well since, with a rating in the low 130s, only the bold then looked to have ran into one again, when beaten by the mid 130s horse malinello, the 3rd moon king has gone well since, so I will take a small EW chance in the hope that only the bold can find a little improvement, as it’s only a little he needs to be heavily involved.
Newbury 3.35 soaring glory 13/2 0.75 pts EW william hill. I have already put him up at 12/1 in the Antepost thread, so no need to re back if your on Antepost, however I will stick with him here, I believe he has been laid out for this, his mark is fine, and he should give a give good account of himself in an extremely competitive race.
Look my way 8/1+ everglow 15/2
Both 0.5 pts win with bet365
Champagne platinum is very capable of winning off this mark here, however that may ruin his pertemps chances, so I can see him running very well and coming 2nd or 3rd. Of the remainder look my way had his form franked by mint condition, he has been raised 4 pounds for that effort, however has a 7 pound claimed on board today, he recently had a spin on the flat, and a chance will be taken.
Everglow will appreciate this step up in trip, after running ok in a much stronger race last time. He is not a world beater, however He is crying out for 3 miles, and is unexposed at the trip.
12.30 Leicester. Muckamore. 4/1 1pt EW Bet365
He ran better last time than the form figure suggests, he weakened in the closing stakes last time having been going well throughout.
He has subsequently undergone Palatal Cautery surgery, a tongue strap has been applied, and both a drop in trip and a drop in grade sees him in here with a fair chance, it may well do the trick here.
2.40 wetherby. Good Boy Bobby 9/1
0.5 pts EW. Hills
He reverts to hurdle here off a mark of 142 which is fine, I’m assuming they are saving his chase mark for a big pot, and this looks a good opportunity for him, Albert’s back has gone well recently however he has shot up in the weights, midnight shadow is a solid yard stick at the top of the weights, therefore of 142 I feel good Boy Bobby should be competitive, and even if this race is just to keep him ticking over, he is fit enough to do himself justice
2.20 warrick Amarillo sky 13/2 0.75 pts EW unibet.
he has ran in some strong races, makes his handicap debut here, of what I believe to be a very fair mark. Should be involved.
Thurles is a re arranged card, so salt wind who we was on, in the same race last time, has subsequently been found, there may be a drift on him tomorrow back out to the 4/1 which we had, I’ll have to wait and see.
Amarillo sky is another that’s been re a arranged and again we were on at bigger prices, with good place terms, the same applies to him.
They may go and win, However I wont be taking under the odds, so I’m very much waiting and seeing how the market develops tomorrow morning.
2.10 Exeter astigar 1pt EW 4/1
Betfred, pp, hills sky
Astigar got out stayed by a useful horse last time in patroclus, the 3rd is also a fair horse and is one to note up in trip, this is further backed up by the bumper form of astigar, with the horse who beat him by half a length winning his maiden hurdle nicely and prominent in the betting for the 1st race here, this race is the easier of the pair imo, and I side with astigar here to get off the mark.
To my frustration there is only Naas that looks like being on, i have 3 horses of interest at Naas. 1 in shorter than I wanted, the other 2 are WAY shorter than I wanted, i don’t want to put up something just for content so I will wait and check for any drift tomorrow morning. Barring that, I will wait for more suitable opportunities.
Farclas 8/1 0.5 pts EW PP
As per the DRF day 2 card.
4.25 leopardstown chemical energy
11/4 1.5pts EW. bet 365
He may well drift, however i really rate him, I am under no illusions, and I’m aware that willie has thrown everything he has at the race, but chemical energy has been kept back for this himself, and I expect him to go very well.
Save your pts for the weekend, it’s good racing.
Ffos lass 1.25 red lion lad 1pt win 11/4 bet365
Red lion lad looked a very dour stayer in his ptp and handled the heavy conditions best of all, he started over 2 miles on his hurdle debut and wasnt great, however in his ptp he did all his best work late in a war of attrition, so I believe that there is improvement in him up in trip, of which he gets today, I do think he is worth following as a long term prospect out in trip in very soft conditions, so hopefully it may be today, and a chance is taken.
aki bomaye won his ptp nicely at turtalla where the grey jumped well, was always in controll on soft ground, and finished his race well,
The son of Stowaway, and a half-brother to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Granit Jack was then sold at the tatts december Cheltenham sale for £55,000, he is an interest addition to the race. Champagne superover has an ambitious ballymore entry and seemed to turn a corner in a very weak race last time, however I dont think he is the strongest finisher and had previously finished just behind franco d’anou who brings a reasonable and consistent level of form into the race himself.
2.00 Warwick fantastic lady 11/2
0.75pts EW hills/pp…
She ran in a good race on debut jayBwhy and patroclus have gone well since and imo this form is as good as anything else on offer, my whirlwind obviously cost 400k so alot will be expected, however that race has worked out awful, and she likely diddnt achieve any more there than her stablemate has on her sole hurdle Start
3.15 naas pencilfuloflead 2/1
Betv/Boyle’s 1 pt win.
This run qualifies him for the NH chase, and obviously he is fully entitled to run in the RSA if they so wish, he will be trying here As handicaps are off the table, I rate him, and he will go very close.
2.40 Doncaster. ashdown lad. 6/1
1pt EW sky (5 places)
I believe he is just about the best horse in this race, which is a moderate bunch. I don’t believe that was his true running last time, this race is very suitable, and If he picks up where he left off, he should be bang there. If anyone wanted to wait and seeing there is a further drift with the place concession, that’s fair enough, but I am happy as is.
Doncaster 1.32 Road Senam 7/1 0.5 pts EW bet365. I know him well from france, he reverts back to hurdles here for the 2and time I’m succession for his new yard and connections, he should have no issue in the jumping department, and has a little class about him. Todays trip is fine and He should be at home in this company, despite the stables poor form, he may improve on what he showed last time? And go well.
I have just spent an extra 3 hours watching videos trying to force a bet, but their just isn’t one, the handicap with runwildfred/ coko beach in is interesting, however I just have no idea what will be trying and what won’t be.
Assuming Thurles is on, I may have something of interest in the 12.45, it all depends on the prices in the relevant markets (extra places/ match bet) once they are formed in the morning. I have now just woke up to find ELIMAY has been smashed up and halved in price, so subsequently this is now off the cards.
1.20 down royal Decimation evens 1pt win paddy power……
He has smart form and has ran into 3 nice horses, I see no reason why he can’t get off the mark here. Apologies for the short price, however I would like to get back into the routine asap, so i am looking for anything I feel will go very close.
There will be multiple bets tomorrow for Saturday.
3.40 Ludlow ravished 11/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
I have just had to act early as he was cut instantly already, with markets going up too early. Anyway….. Last time out in the Skinners Ladies Open, a qualifier for the series final at Stratford Ravished always looked in control in the hands of Gina Andrews and scored by an easy 12 lengths, with Changeofluck a never dangerous 20 lengths third.
“Yes, I was expecting that!” confirmed Ravished’s always-bullish trainer Joe O’Shea afterwards. “He’s a hell of a horse and I wish I’d had him when he was younger. We backed him at 200/1 for the Cheltenham Foxhunters after he’d won first time out last year but he was balloted out – Cheltenham and Aintree will be the plan again. Gina said he was always travelling and jumping well and Huw Edwards – who’s my stable jockey – is also looking forward to riding him.”
i think we all know hazel hill, however I have no idea if he is the same horse, as first time up, he didn’t look it.
One worth a watch in the Newbury 12.55 is Gallyhill .
Hoi polloi was beaten by a very average horse at time at ayr but is now a NR. Gallyhill won an Irish ptp nicely, he was held up, jumped well, travelling all over the field when put into the race 3 out, it was only a question of when the jockey wanted to decide to win, he was a bit careful at the last and idled on the run in, the winning margin, doesn’t show just how authoritative he was, however he clearly caught the eyes of the sale room before changing hands to Mike grech and nicky henderson. The owner has a very nice horse already in I am Maximus, and connections have decided to keep him in bumpers for the season, Gallyhill skips them , and goes straight hurdling in the race which shiskin broke his maiden tag last season, we are about to see what £450,000 gets you.
2.20 pau Gai Luron 9/2
bet365 0.5 pts EW
I think Gai Luron may well have been layed out to win this handicap for Francois Nicolle, he switched back from fences to come 2nd last time over hurdles, not asked for everything. The 3rd won by 20L next time at nantes, then was beaten in a
similar race at a recent pau where Francois Nicolle won the race with polisud, who he dropped back from chasing for the same connections as Gai luron here.
This is a very competitive handicap, you can run well and finish 5th or 6th, however our selection is unexposed over hurdles and i am hoping will be bang there.
One to watch.
1.20 pau Hyghliner great
I recieved a good word for him from someone connected, prior to his run last time and he disappointed in poor conditions, the race looked strong, so he may have a chance to redeem himself here, I do not expect it, however it is plausible that he just didn’t run his race. I am happy to watch, if anyone wants a small interest, its not advised or to be recorded either way, however i feel he is worth highlighting for interest.
If all members can please email us when you have time on
That would be much appreciated, this is how i would send out selections if for any reason our site went down, and may be considered for future notifications rather than twitter…
2.32 pau. la danza insure bet (3 places)
7/4 sky bet. 2 pts.
I believe she will attempt to make all here, she is a very good jumper, and finishes out her races well, horse maha fell last time so may be patiently ridden to get a clear sight at his fences and subsequently make his move when la danza has already flown, invite special stays the trip very well, and if he is bang there going to the last he may be able to get to her, however it’s all about timing, kick la danza for home well before the last and I believe she will open up enough to see it home.
There is Currently 2 that I am interested in, I will wait until the morning to see the rest open up their prices on the latter, and for any drift on the former, as it is just short of the price that I want.
1.50 leopardstown and the 2.32 at pau
2.25 Warwick ADRIMEL 6/1
0.75pts EW paddy power / betvictor
I wont have about what he has done, he has narrowly beaten poor horses, however I see improvement now stepped up to this trip, he sees out his races over 2 miles very well, and I think there is more ti come from adrimel, he won a decent ptp where make believer fell in behind, it would have been interesting to see how that played out as he looks pretty useful, we will see the rematch today over obstacles, where imo the pair are key players. Jay bee why was very impressive visually last time, he hosed up against what know is a useful horse in patroclus, it may be the case he is very smart, however there was no distance between patroclus and the 3rd, he was too keen, and I dont believe that he gave his true running, oscar elite joined coin tizzard with a big reputation after winning his ptp, he may be very useful, however theres is no substance to his form, behind the large winning distances, so I feel I have to take him on with adrimel, expecting improvement for the increase in distance.
There are no NH cards tomorrow worldwide. As i am now strictly focusing on National Hunt Racing until atleast the Dubai world cup meeting, that unfortunately means it will be a no bet day.
2.52 pau gingermix 0.5pts EW 16/1
There are plenty of horses in here with 1s next to their name, the form figures of gingermix do not look flashy, however
he has some good bumper form behind the very useful filly Gannat, I believe he has ran in the deepest company, so this level on hurdles debut, should not be beyond him. +1.1
2.50 naas on eagles wings 9/2
1pt EW bet365.
On eagles wings has some very smart bumper form, h he has been beaten by very useful types such as ferny hollow and chemical energy, if the translates that form over to hurdles, he should be useful and involved at the business end here .+5.4
1.55 fairyhouse. Fantasia roque 10/1
0.25 pts EW paddy power
She has some decent form in ptp’s, her win against clondaw caitlin reads nicely, CC won 4 races in a row, is rated in the mid 130s over hurdles and was placed against Galvin last time on her first chase start.
Fantasia roque’s previous start in a ptp also reads well, she was 6L behind tune the chello, who has won 2 races since.
Last time in a bumper, she was well beaten, with the step up in trip and obstacles in front of her, we may see her in a better light, for me the horses at the front of the market, are both inconsistent, and set a winnable standard.
she may never have encountered ground as bad as this, with conditions described as unraceable, so I think its sensible to keep stakes very small for today, and keep our powder dry for more suitable opportunities, however I’m hopeful that she can be involved here.
It may be a NO BET day tomorrow, it all revolves around what price six one in the 1.07 pau, is priced up in the morning.
13.15 cagnes sur mer. Berjou
Insurebet 3 places 15/8 4pts bet365.
This is money back if in the top 3. Win if he is 1st.
I was hoping to get lucky with the price here, however he has been found, but i still think the price is very fair, he won this race last year, he was travelling very well when unseating last time and imo about to beat the 2nd fav here rasango. +7.5
With Naas unfortunately off, I am looking at 2 potential horses who will run at cagnes tomorrow. I will wait for the rest of the books to price up in the morning, and will be dictated by the prices whether to make 1 or both a bet.
12.25 wincanton Ginger du val. 1pt EW
She was 2nd in a grade 3 bumper before winning nicely and pornichet, the winner of that grade 2 Gigastar went on to be 4th in a strong grade 1 to the extremely smart Gannat, which gives the form a reasonable look to it, it’s her first run over hurdles off a long break, however she could well be useful and closely involved here. On to victory brings smart form to this race, with a clear round, he would be the one to aim at. -2
Chepstow 1.25 Houx Gris 9/2 1.5pt EW unibet 9/2
houx Gris has plenty of experience in france, where he has ran to a solid consistent level, he should have e no issues in the jumping department and he has been given enough time to acclimatise to his new settings, nassalam has won very convincingly against very poor opposition so is hard to weigh up, I am inclined to take him on with something that I know has ran to a good level, against solid opposition, houx Gris, will give Nassalam a real test, and he will have to be the real deal, to be beating him convincingly. +0
11.30 pau. Hors Piste 11/1
0.5 pts EW bet365.
Hors Piste makes her debut here, however I have noted down that previously she was the stable no1 on both the jockey bookings and market position, when she was declared a non runner last time due to the ground. Her stable mate Haie Vert, duly went on and won that race nicely, so I would be optimistically hopeful that Hors piste backs that up here on debut. -1
1.40 lingfield. Nebuchadnezzar 15/2
0.5 pts EW bet 365
Nebuchadnezzar ran well last time over 1m4 in a class 5 handicap, after switching back from hurling, he gets 2 miles here, the step up in trip should suit, as should the experience of running around lingfield on the all weather last time. -1
12.40 sandown. Stormy ireland 3pts win. 10/11 bet365. No prizes for originality here, but some times the best value can be in the shorter prices, she ran 2 fine races over fences before running poorly in deep company over hurdles. The conditions of the race are massively in her favour here. I expect a win. -3
1.50 cagnes sur mer A johnny 9/2 1 pt EW bet365.
it’s pretty rare that I will follow up a previous selection next time out, as I treat each race on its individual merit, however I am convinced that A johnny is capable of winning a maiden, he travels well, he jumps well, he is just not finding a great deal in the closing stages, however he is a young horse with just 2 runs on the board over hurdles and has been tried in some fairly deep races. Looking through the field here, there are more convincing form figures to be seen, however the standard of races they were achieved in, I believe aren’t as strong as the ones that A Johnny has ran in. I will be dissapointed if he is not involved at the business end of the race here. +0
Punchestown 12.30 run wild fred 7/1 0.75 pts EW. Paddy power.
He ran a shocker a last time, he seemingly didn’t travel well throughout the race. Beforehand he was going pretty well stride to stride with opposites attract in a race won by latest exhibition.
I may be wrong, however I think that run wild fred may be being campaigned towards the Kim Muir, 1st time blinkers have been called upon here, and I expect him to show more.
I think the job is all but done on the front of handicapping him, so i do want to see something from him today.
I have kept back 4 points just incase one that I like drifts. I will notify tomorrow beforehand if that is to be the case.
3.15 newbury stargate 5/2
1 pt win bet365
Chelt Members will know that I rated his debut very highly, visually he is the most impressive novice I have seen over the intermediate trip.
1.30 Newbury Demachine 10/3
1.5 pts EW bet365
He is one I have been keeping an eye on, he has won the last twice in a good manner, hopefully he keeps progressing as I can see bigger targets ahead.
3.35 leopardstown. Unbreakable bond 10/1 0.5 pts EW bet365
Unbreakable bond was 2nd in a ptp where the winner went on to win a bumper at punchestown, unbreakable bond travelled well throughout and was only bettered in the closing stages, he was sold for £210,000 where as the winner grangeclaire native went for £125,000 which shows he wasn’t missed. On what I saw, The drop in trip here should strongly suit.
Ramillies and unbreakable bond look the pair to follow forward. It would be a price related decision between the pair. Take the 10/1 unbreakable bond BIG
12.05 leopardstown. Indigo breeze 4/1 bet365 1.5pts EW
Indigo breeze dotted up in his bumper after being purchased privately for Gordon elliot, he was previously unsold for 140,000 at the cheltenham sale. He was beaten narrowly by the useful keskonrisk on debut, and was reported beforehand to likely come on for the run.
“He is very very nice and is owned by Gearoid Costelloe and won a point to point-bumper in England and couldn’t get him sold off the back of it”
“We were lucky enough to get him at Gordon’s and he is a beautiful horse and is a half-brother to a very good horse, Brindisi Breeze.
“He is a big strong horse, is a jumper, handles soft ground and is one of our nicer young ones.”
This is a pretty tough maiden, though Gordon’s horse has just had his form franked by keskonrisk as im reading this, so with improvement set to come, he looks the one to beat here.
12.45 kempton Heross du seuil 11/4 1.5 pts EW bet 365 (various)
You may have already seen me mention him previously, he looked very smart in his aqps bumper and now makes his hurdles debut in a decent race, siroco jo has ran over hurdles in France already and brings some decent form to the table, with his narrow defeat to blackiron who is a decent type.
Her indoors ran at aintree in a listed juvenile hurdle on debut, though listed in name imo it didn’t have the strength or depth to it, I believe this is deeper.
I would be dissapointed if heross du seuil can not better the standard of the aintree race, and the rest of the horses that have previous ran in the uk,
if heross du seuil is to be a genuine triumph hurdle candidate, he needs to be beating, siroco joe here, who I’m likely to be inclined to believe, isn’t right at the very top of the tree at ditcheat with them having the likes of monmiral, good ball, houx gris, and hell red also in the stable.
I’m hoping that heross du seuil makes an instant impact tin the triumph hurdle market here. +5.4
Kempton 3.35 Barbados blue 5/1
1pt EW skynet (6 places)
Barbados blue is off a very low mark, she hosed up when last seen, in a weak race, however her run beforehand with ontheslopes and birds of prey reads well, she has had plenty of time to mature, and a mark of 119 subsequently looks lenient. -2
Kempton 1.15 son of camas 9/1
1pt EW William hill (5 places)
Although son of Camas has pulled up the last twice, imo he was travelling like the winner the last time before making a mistake. He can improve for fences, and his mark is very fair. +0.8
Tuesday. .No bet.
The cards improve significantly from the 26th, and there will likely be alot of bets between then and the end of the month, so we will keep the points for them.
I may put up 1 or more bets for the 26th on the 24th, if all races are priced up throughout. (Will notify)
I genuinely hope everyone enjoys there christmas and a few days rest, if there are any questions about the racing in the days ahead, or any requests to go through any particular cards, please feel free to PM me.
Just to note, please don’t worry about checking my site for notifications on Christmas day as i will absolutely not be putting any bets at all up, even for the next days racing, so if bets aren’t up in advance on the 24th, it will be up after 10am on the morning of the 26th.
PLEASE NOTE that I am still 100% contactable at all times, so if ANYONE happened to be alone at Christmas and wanted to chat about the racing, go through their Antepost bets, or even discuss responsible gambling as per the thread on here, PLEASE don’t hesitate to contact me via PM.
Merry Christmas, thankyou for your time.
IF Muthalad drifts out to 7/2 4/1 with 4 places it is my intention to add another 1.5pts EW on him. Just noting beforehand as there is 40 mins until post time, and don’t want anyone to miss out. Should I put up 10 mins before.
Pau 3.07 Swiss guard 5/2
Swiss guard made his debut over hurdles and ot was a neck and neck battle with now Willie Mullins triumph hurdle candidate haut en couleurs, he pair pulled a long way clear with the 3rd going on to win on his chase debut on his next start, and followed that up with a graded win.
Swiss guard now sets off on his chase debut, with imo some quality form to his name. He could be hard to beat here. -2
12.10 pau Muthalad 7/2 1pt win bet 365
Makes his debut here, I was hoping that he wouldn’t be fav, however he has been targeting this race, everything I have heard, would leave me to believe that he is highly regarded. He is expected to go well here.
Nick sentors, akteur, invader and Briac dechal are all to be respected making their debuts for top yards. -1
3 35 ascot (hills 6 places)
Botox has 18/1 0.5 pts EW
He ran a solid race last time up when ridden prominently just behind the pace, milkwood was a notable eye catcher there, and very unfortunate, however botox has himself stuck at the task pretty well behind, I think the quality of that race was pretty strong, therefore he should go well in this event off the same mark.
Night edition has gone up very little for running an absolute stormer in the fred winter, the time beforehand he was asked for absolutely nothing to recieve his mark. Therefore I believe that his mark may still be lenient, however it would take a big performance to win this on 1st run back, this is a big pot, which may have been under consideration for some time, rather than a stepping stone. So whether it’s here or the future, he is worth following forward imo.
Buzz hosted up last time and should go well even from a lofty mark, west to the bridge wants further and is looking to get his mark down, kid commando has found his mark as has oakley, imo benson and cormier have beaten trees. Malaya finds little off the bridle. Master debonair is too high in the handicap. lightly squeeze and time flies bte are respected as is Arrivederci who Is a very obvious one, he was in the process of running a very big race last time, war lord gives the form a good look to it, however arriverderci imo is now found in the market and I personally don’t think it was as strong a race as the one which botox has was in last time. -1
10.55 Cagnes sur mer. A johnny
0.5 pts EW 11/1 bet365.
He made his debut last time when he was beaten in excess of 30L.
However he caught my eye, and I really liked him, he jumped very well throughout, and was kept widest of all, when beaten he was asked for nothing.
I may be left to look silly here, however imo it was public schooling. With the experience he would have learned on debut, I’ll be surprised if he’s beaten 30L here. If ridden more prominently just off the pace on the inside, to make use of his jumping, imo he could go well here. -1
friday ascot 2.30 no odinary joe 2pts win. wiliamhill 7\2 -2
12.40 Newbury lecales article 5\6 3 points win betv sky hills pp +2.5
.Wincanton 12.35 Steady the ship
0.5pts EW 4/1 bet365
I’m not sure why the markets are opening so early, horses are getting cut straight away, so, I will have to put this up reasonably early, please PM me if this is an issue.
Steady the ship has ran in 2 bumpers with credit, last time he took on the very useful firestep, I believe that was a pretty competitive
bumper for one of its type, therefore it may throw up a few promising horses going forward.
Steady the ship should be competative here on hurdles debut.
I will be in attendance myself at wincanton tomorrow, so hopefully I may say him pass the winning line infront in the flesh. -0.1
On another note, the smaller stakes are ticking us over, while I’m waiting for opportunities, There is one I really like tomorrow, so I hope the horse in question is not odds on, and therefore we are able to back accordingly.
12.25 naas. won the toss.
7/1 paddy power 0.5pts EW
All eyes will be on the willie mullins filly echoes in rain, and she may well be very hard to beat here. But I liked the last run of won the toss in a bumper behind the very useful hollow games, the banger doyle and sin a bhfuil, I believe that to be good form, and should he build upon that now switched to obstacles, he may be able to cause an upset here. +0.38
12.50 cagnes sur mer. (Bet365)
Folsom prison 0.5pts EW 5/1
Tenerife sea 9/1 0.5pts win
He Ran well over fences last time out, when coming back off a 6 months break, folsom prison was held up, travelled well came home nicely without being asked for everything , now switched back to hurdles, he is 7 pounds worse off with the winner of that race, TENERIFE SEA however imo he was the best horse in that race, and he should come on significantly for that run,
he has big field handicap hurdle experience, and should go well from top weight here.
The aforementioned TENERIFE SEA
Is 7 pounds better off and has ran with great credit in better races than this when last seen over hurdles.
I believe this race is set up for her to get a soft lead, she may build up what will look to be an unattainable lead, with folsom prison coming out the pack and imo may well get to her on the run in.
For those who like to back to lay in running. Tenerife sea is likely to go short, with good potential to lay her in running imo, at the minimum of half the price she is now. +3.5
One to watch
10.10 Pau Horse piste
Mendizibal is on board, she is a newcomer, she may be priced bigger else where in the morning, however with the race being so early, I wont be giving enough notice if I waited.
Horse piste herself apparently works well from some trainer comments i had previously noted from jour de gallop.
This isn’t enough for me to make her an advised bet, however on a very poor days racing, she is worth noting and is of interest for the future.
Currently looking at mondays cards.
Silver streak 0.5 pts EW
8/1 BFSB or skybet 7/1.
Silver streak is a very consistent horse and won well on seasonal debut as he did last year, last time you can completely right off, so therefore with no epatante in here, it looks a very competitive yet tight race. I would give him every chance of being bang there, and feel that he somewhat under rated, being in the shadow of some top class horses.
ideally there will be no more rain.
Goshen is the unknown quantity, that is not certain to step up to this level, or alternatively could wipe the floor with them. However I’m not willing to back him here.
Stormy Ireland is interesting, this is undoubtably her trip, she deserves her chance here, my only worry is what she finds off the bridle at the end of the race, so thats something I’ll have to sit out and watch here, in terms of keeping a bet on her.
However shes the perfect horse to back now at 25/1 or on the exchange and lay in running, if anyone is that way inclined. in all honesty, that will by my main personal play tomorrow.
Of the remainder, ballyandy stays well and is a hardy horse, chtibello and call me lord are short of the very top grade, verdana blue has been in better form, sceau royal doesn’t get his good ground that he seems to significantly improve on. imo song for someone wants further, as does Sumerville boy. +0.3
hopefully there are more interesting betting heats on sunday, as it’s quite a poor days racing for a sat this week, therefore, I feel it’s right to hold fire for better opportunities.
1.42 Doncaster MATCH BET
GOA LIL to beat shut the box
Goa lil has plenty of ability, his jumping is quite exuberant and he has made mistakes, however he is learning on the job.
Imo he has far more ability than shut the box who just mugged him on the line last time after goa lil made another mistake at the last.
It wont be the prettiest watch, however anything close to a clear round here, and imo he beats shut the box comfortably.
1 or 2 mistakes, he may well do so anyway.
And with a clear round, he may actually win the race.
Therefore I make it odds on myself that go all beats shut the box in a match bet, despite goa lil being the outsider of the field, imo 5/4 is value, and I will be taking that -2
3.32 Blairgowrie 3/1 PP 1 pt win.
Blairgowrie was an expensive recruit as a store, he was being saved for the big sale’s bumper in the spring, therefore he should go well here. -1
12.52 warrick PATROCLUS 2pts win 13/8 PP
His ptp has worked out very well with Gaston PHEBUS, he travelled throughout the race like the best horse in the race, and was sold likewise. He should be able to win 1st time up here. -2
Newcastle 3.25 Marty time 11/4 1pt win B365
He has been targeted at the race for some time, Tom Lacey’s bumper runners are always to be respected And he is highly regarded. -1
In all honesty it looks a poor days racing,
However I do have something in mind from cagnes su mer, which atm is priced accordingly, so i will wait for all books to price up in the morning.
If its not the price that we need, then it would be NO BET and we go again tomorrow.
Highliner great 9/1 1pt EW. Bet365
gabriel leenders who has sold a few recently that have won 1st time up to go to Gordon and willie respectably, runs highliner great here. I have had a decent word that this horse has been targeted here, on numerous occasions over the last few weeks. Hopefully he backs it up. -2
Musselburgh 3.15 Sin a bhfuil 13/8 bet365 1.5 pts win
Emmet mullins makes the journey over to musselburgh, for a bumper.
Quite simply, on a line through the banger doyle, he should have been 4/5 here and should win. -1.5
1.17 pau Garfield 0.5 pt win 4/1 bet365
He has a whole load of back class over hurdles, i find it very hard to leave him unbacked. He has had some very lofty tasks on his last 2 starts over fences, he should find this easier. Whether that allows him to win today, we will find out +2
.1.52 pau Honey wolf 0.5pts EW 4/1 bet365
” i think she is a very good filly. She is a good jumper and has a good mind. She is very cool and will make her debut at Pau. I expect her to do well first time out already” -0.1
Pau 2.32 Reliable son. 3/1 1pt win bet365
A win 2 starts ago on the level, and just outside the places at listed level also on the flat last time, he has left nicholas Clement to join david cottin who has an incredible record at Pau. The standard already set here over hurdles looks achievable, hopefully he goes very well here. -1
Slip road 13/2 0.5pts EW. Bet365
I like both of his runs in bumpers, I’m also lead to believe that I Chavez who he finished just behind last time, is pretty useful. +3.9
Exeter 12.55 Red lion lad 9/1 0.5pts EW paddy power.
Red Lion Lad won his ptp and makes his hurdles debut here, he travelled well throughout before making a mistake 2 out, and was then ridden back to challenge, he picked up very well from there on in, it was clear that he had the desire to win, the 2nd just couldn’t go with him any further, and what would have been the 3rd, was down to a walk and took a very tired fall at the last.
He hit the line full of running, which saw him win by a double digit winning margin in a time 12 seconds faster than the day’s average, all of which points to a horse that has started life very promisingly.
He was unsold at the sales for £135,000 and has since been sold privately to join david pipe, for a considerably bigger fee.
He is deffinately one to note for testing conditions and a test of stamina, I was very impressed by the way in which he picked up on testing ground.
It is 2 miles here, however he gets his conditions, the more rain the better. He will be doing his best work late.
4th December 2020
Official Going Soft, Heavy in places
Wincanton 215 darlac 9/2 0.5 pts EW bet 365.
He drops back into handicap company after running a stormer against enrilo in novice company last time. He is open to plenty of improvement through his jumping, which will hopefully hold up and allow him to be closely involved here. +2.7
3.30 Clonmel CAPODANNO. 1pt win. 4/5
I’m aware of the price but please read the full write up where it should be apparent why. if you dont want to back at such short odds, then feel free not to, I obviously will record this either way.
I’m still looking through tomorrows cards.
I know this horse pretty well, having come 2nd at Compiegne on debut.
He’s a strong traveller and an excellent jumper.
A very high percentage of daily members are CHELT members too,
But for the ones who aren’t, i will give you a one time only teaser.. and what I feel is an assist on this one.
He is an advised bet for members who are already on.
We have been following every entry and waiting for him.
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE HORSE.
The full reasoning is in the chelt section.
Please note that anyone who wants to upgrade to the chelt service, (which is only open to existing members of any kind)
Any paid daily bets fee would come off the existing price to upgrade.
Feel free to contact me about this. There is absolutely no obligation to do so. -1
Haydock 2.55 goobinator
9/2 0.5 pts EW sky (4 places)
The form with mcgowanns pass is reasonable, the latter was beaten by David pipes smart stayer main fact who is rising quickly through the ranks.
The pinkn has also undoubtably franked the form of goobinator, going very close against the useful floressa.
Nickys horse has problably found the right sort of level and trip here and is respected, as is ebony jewel, although her fall was no surprise last time.
Goobinator showed heart in a battle last time out, I think the rise of 4 pounds is fair, taking into account his last 2 runs.
I believe he can be closely involved here, And a tentative chance will be taken on him, in what in all honesty is a day lacking any quality racing. -1
2.00 southwell Fletch 0.5pts EW
10/1 paddy power.
I was very interested in truckers pass, He has been unlucky to bump into some smart horses, soaring glory in his bumper, and do your job in his maiden hurdle, both are very useful and give his form a strong look to it. it surely wont be long before he is getting his head infront.
However Unfortunately he now doesn’t run here, so is indeed worth noting for future entries, in any case, time may not have been wasted, as upon reviewing the video analysis of what would have been his opposition here, I came across..
FLETCH who was a recruit for olly murphy as a store and the 2nd top lot at the 2018 derby sale, he has recently had a wind operation.
he started off for the yard in a bumper when somewhat unfancied in the market, he travelled pretty well in the early stages, and looked workmanlike in the latter.
While he was lacking the pace of those up front, He did make some notable headway 2 furlongs out and stuck at the task pretty well, he did not have the pace to get involved there.
You can make your own judgement, however I personally do not agree with the written post race comments that he weakened there. However that written synopsis, may somewhat help us with his price here.
Such as the duration he has been in the yard, He is sure to be well schooled,
I do believe with obstacles infront of him, he will have more time to get involved.
in the future he may well be seen to better effect over a longer trip, however in such a contest as this, getting involved at the business end over 2 Miles, should not be completely beyond him, he should be doing his best work in the closing stages And I’m hopeful he can get involved here.
Pencreek has some strong form there on his hurdles debut behind 2 very smart horses, aswell as that seemingly giving him a credible chance here, it also is a prime example of how you can indeed improve for a switch to obstacles, with the reasoning that it is less about raw pace, having seen Pencreek himself being pushed along and outpaced in a couple of bumpers for willie mullins over in ireland.
In summary I’d be hopeful that FLETCH can do us justice here, he is one to note for further improvement from longer trips in the future. However right now is what we require, and I still feel his EW price is fair, taking into consideration both the task he is given, and the improvement I expect for the change in discipline. +0.75
1.20 carlisle Gaston phebus
Now no bet. Cashed out.
Gaston phebus was purchased for £100,000 before winning on debut after being fancied in the market, the 2nd has duly followed up since, and ineould like to think that gaston phebus has every chance of doing so here also. I know the horse that he finished just behind in his ptp patrocolus, is in training with nicky Henderson and potentially very useful, so I dont believe his hurdles debut was a fluke, however I’m hopeful that he can improve upon that effort.
3.22 carlisle guardino 3pts win 7/4 PP
A £170,000 pounds recruit to Ben paulings yard after being 2nd in his ptp,
The winner of the race Supreme Jet seemed to get a very soft lead there, and guardino was left the almost impossible job of trying to real him in on very heavy ground, imo he did very well to get as close as he did, was much the best of the chasing pack, and the one to take forward from the race. This may well leave him underestimated in the market here.
I’m banking on a view to the sea making up the market here with what is imo form figures that flatter him. I believe a view to the sea sets a very achievable standard, and will want further In time. I think he is beatable, and therefore I want to take him on with guardino. -3
1.46 fairyhouse gars de sceaux 1pt win 15/8 betv (7/4 betfred)
I have given gars de sceaux every chance of drifting, in blind hope of him being un noticed, which would have put him infront of PYM. he hasnt done so, I think current prices are fair. My max pts for a day is 8, so the remaining 1 will go on him. -1
3.15 Newcastle PYM 2pts EW 7/2 sky bet (4Places)
I think that PYM is actually under rated, he has ran a couple of poor races which have been in testing conditions, however I do like him, and think hes more than capable of winning at listed level and moving up the ranks, the beating of if the cap fits on seasonal debut shows his well being, and i will be disappointed if he dosent go extremely close here, nevermind the 4. I dont think the right graded races are beyond him in the future. -4
Gigalo Dai Dai 1pt EW 7/1 bet365
Atm. Im dictated by the prices. Gars de sceaux looked very smart in his ptp when easily accounting for magic tricks, magic tricks was also purchased for the same connections, and therefore as well as the visual impression, this also leads me to believe that, gars de sceaux may well indeed be very useful. I was impressed with the way in which he travelled well within himself throughout the race, and duly had put the race to bed with ease a good way out, however he made and survived a serious error 2 out and still mannaged to stay on well to the line, for a very comfortable victory. although be may well be better over further than 2 miles in time, I don’t feel that he lacks pace here.
Gigalo Dai Dai
Was consigned by Walter Connors, and purchased at the derby sale for £190,000 to go to Henry de bromhead
“He’s a lovely horse,” said Ross, who played the winning hand from the top tier of the auditorium high above the auctioneer’s rostrum. “The first offspring out of the mare is a decent horse, which is nice”
“We’ve been through all the horses here and he was one of our favourites. We had to push the boat out but we thought he was worth it given the type of individual he is. He’s been bought for Chris Jones so he’ll go back to Chris’s place, Killeen Glebe, and be prepped there. I’m not sure where he’ll head after that.
“When you’re buying a store at that sort of money you have to think that they’re capable of going to the very top, and the stallion can obviously get a good horse.”
Connors himself said
“I bought him as a foal out in France, myself and Seamus Murphy buy a few foals each year and he was one of those. He’s been with us since then and we’ve always liked him. Al Namix is proven and, if we can, we’ll go for the progeny of those proven sires.”
On topping the session, Connors added: “It’s a great excitement for us, but we’ll get just as much excitement following him in the future. He’s a very attractive horse and I hope he fulfills the dreams of the people who’ve bought him.”
In summary, imo this race looks a very strong renewal of its type, hook up has some nice form in relation to this, and has a grade 1 future entry which is plain to see, however I am hoping that she is making up the market here, for these 2 types of real future potential, I do not think the level hook up has ran to previously is unachievable, and I do believe these are nice prospects. -2
1.50 Newbury Champagne platinum 0.5 pts EW 15/2 william hill (4places
Iv heard the talk of rathhill many times and he is on lowly mark, so of anyone wanted to take the risk to small stakes, thats there perogative, however I am going with CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, He runs here in a handicap hurdle of 137, he was fair as a novice over 2m, highly tried and beaten at the top level, won well enough when at the lowest level, however one thing I did notice is that I strongly felt that he was a 2 and a half miler over hurdles and he was running in the wrong races. The intermediate trip over hurdles is what he belatedly gets here, nicky has a decent hand in this he has won the race handily the last 2 years. I am very hopefull that this is a target rather than a prep for over fences, I believe that he has the trip and mark to show his best here. +0.44
Thur 26th NO BET
1.40 hereford No quarter asked 0.5pts EW at 9/2 bet365
Princess midnight is up 4 pounds for winning a very poor race, and I’m willing to take her on, no quarter asked is a solid enough hurdler, lebanver bel Ami who beat him last time has managed to get off the mark in a nov handicap chase off a mark of 104, no quarters asked was headed in the closing stages of that race and drops down in trip by 3f to 2 miles here.
Apart from a mistake 2 out 3 starts ago, he has been a solid jumper in the main, any improvement at all from the switch to fences, and he should be going close here off a mark of 100 in a race which shouldnt take much winning for horses open to improvement. -1
Firestep southwell 1.37 3 pts win. 5/2 bet365
It is possible someone else may price up bigger, so i have left room for that. However 365 is B.O.G
If he is cut sharply, anyone that wants to wait for the prices elsewhere, that’s there perogative.
I believe that firestep is potentially very useful.
I Wasnt expecting him to run into a well bred coolmore horse, (all shook up)
All shook up (mrs john magnier)
“he has done plenty of work at home. I’ve taken him to the grass a few times and he has been showing up nicely. I hope he can acquit himself well. He will definitely be a jumper in time”
and there are also a few pricey unraced types in here, 2 bought from the same sale as firestep for a higher fee, which are ben paulings curio bay and the F O’B imperial racing club horse imperial storm. And david pipes brocade racing ptp winner neon moon.
The already raced bumper horses do not worry me, as I believe firestep can beat the existing standard seen, however I’m obviously weary of the unknows. And the possibility of bumping in to a very good one.
FIRESTEP is clearly NO CERTAINTY to win.
however I will stick to my reasoning beforehand and therefore a chance will be taken, to take a decent cut at him here. +7.5
Ludlow 3.20 house island.
1pt win bet365 2/1
His form with kalooki last time even though well held would look to be pretty solid. His hurdles form is also of a good standard. Imo evan William’s horse looks too keen, pigeon ran awful last time. Don bersy has come through the ptp field. And all in all it’s a pretty poor race. So house island is a consistent type who should be well capable of running to 140+ which should be good enough to win here. It’s not the price I was dreaming of, however 2/1 is very fair. +2
12.33 Exeter. Lair du vent. 1pt win 4/1 bet 365.
He was beaten last time out by the wolf however imo lair du vent just slightly over jumped the last 3 and lost a bit of momentum when pecking slightly from the back of his fences, however he showed that he had something left in the tank to come back between each fence and attack the next.
I did like his jumping technique in the whole, and I am expecting him to get round here.
He diddnt go down by far at all, and was only just ran out of it on the run in.
the revised terms today are much more in in his favour. For me he was the one to take out of the race going forward,
I believe that he has the potential to reverse the form off these terms, hopefully that may be good enough to go very close
In the future, imo they may want to drop him to 2 and a half miles, and make all, where he may be able to take a similar race as this, over that trip, with ease.
However I am hoping he gets away with the 3 miles here on raw ability, as i do like what I saw last time. +4
2.00 cork jukebox jive 12/1 0.5 pts EW bet365
Jukebox jive has had 2 recent spins of the flat, his mark has dropped down to 123 and he now has the assistance of a 7 pound claimer on board, his recent flat runs, would give him no excuse kn fitness, the light weight woukd give him every chance should be be good enough here. -1
12.30 chepstow MERCUTIO ROCK 1pt 4/1 (sp 11/1) EW bet365. He ran well in a bumper last time out, however he was out paced there, obstacles infront of him, may show considerable improvement, the form itself from the race looks good enough to go well here regardless. +1.2
GENTLEMAN VALLEY 10/1 Catterick 3.33 0.5pts EW. PaddyP
Was Purchased at the goffs derby sale in 2019, he was sold as 1 of the top 15 lots for £130,000 to ben pauling, he looked a fine specimen, and is related to Guillaume macaire’s smart invincter, who won the PRIX GEORGES DE
TALHOUET-ROY and placed 2nd in the PRIX CAMBACERES as a 3yo. I personally backed gentlemen valley on debut at Hereford before he was unfortunately taken out due to the change in ground conditions. I think he is worth a small play here. And I’m hopeful that he can be a nice acquisition for the yard, +0.75
Deise Aba 11/2 williamhill (4places)
0.5 pts EW
Has been a model of consistency over fences, his beating of cloudy glen reads well in relation to this race, with that form line running through a considerable ammount of the key contenders here. His run in the Kim muir was very credible and the test of stamina here looks sure to suit. -1
2.25 haydock KALASHNIKOV 25/1
bet victor 0.5 pts EW
I want to take a chance on Kalashnikov here at 25/1. He has all the weight and hasn’t ran over hurdles since the supreme, however does have big field handicap hurdle experience when winning the betfair hurdle. He has not made the most convincing of chasers, and I believe that is due to his jumping rather than a lack of talent.
despite the big weight here, I do feel that he would have improved in the past over hurdles for a step up in trip of which he gets here. So therefore a chance will be taken on him being ready enough here.-1
3.12 wincanton EW extra bet365
Goa lil 5/1 4 places 1pt EW
Scardura 17/2 4 places 1pt EW
The pair bring the strongest chase form onto the race, the pair also need a clean round. I think pauls horse is now underpriced with editeur de gite who was a genuine contender now out of the race, I feel it’s now time to act. -4
FIRESTEP NOT DECLARED. If you havent backed already. DO NOT BACK.
Despite being jocked up, unfortunately firestep is a NR. I 100% take the blame for this. As I made a decision based on current ground conditions and that he suddenly got jocked up. I have noted this, please Wait until the end of the Month,or your individual term and if we are not in profit I will sort something out.
3:50 pm Coral Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Standard National Hunt Flat Race 1m 7f 152y
Earl Biffy Biffen
No Hubs No Hoobs
Sixty Dollars More
The Denholm Bandit
Top of The Bill
Who Is That
Saturday 3.50 ascot FIRESTEP Nr2pts win 5/1 williamhill
Hendo has 3 entries
The bomber liston is declared for …
Friday, 20 November 2020 – 3:33
(Overnight) at Catterick Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Intermediate Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race) (1m7½f)
Soft, Good to Soft (in places)
Wraysford has no other entries, however connections also have 1 for paul nicholls in the race. However paul has lando kid jocked up. So it is plausible that he could take firesteps place.
Firestep was taken out twice on account of the heavy ground previously, the current conditions are soft, good to soft in places, he is now jocked up here with Jerry McGrath on board. I have previously given me reasoning on him.
it is expected to be dry
and windy on Thursday with light showers forecast through Friday
and overnight to Saturday 1-2mm. Saturday looks mainly dry.
Looking at the race itself, horses with the previous runs, do not worry me.
Wonderwall is also jocked up, and I am somewhat worried about him being smart, I do know that they chose the names carefully, and kept that name provisionally for the best one of the 4 purchased.
“It’s been fun watching them up Warren Hill. They look lovely horses, I particularly like the Yeats, which we’ve called Wonderwall. He looks a real athlete.”
So his current odds of 14/1 are somewhat appealing when you consider Richard’s (23 per cent) strike-rate over jumps is impressive.
So I am going to add a small win bet on him, and I will add in the long shot thread, which isn’t mandatory.
For our main bet, i want to take a chance on FIRESTEP here. I will personally take the blame should he not run
With 2 pts win the stake today. I have been waiting 2 weeks for him, so I cant leave it down to luck on the prices should be be declared.
We may add more on firestep on the day, if he is declared and we are lucky enough to still get that price and therefore would be able to back EW However I’m worried that it may be long gone by then, so I feel I have to take the chance to lock it in. Please note that there is a chance that he may not get declared.
2.55 Thurles Karen’s gift 2.55 thurles 8/1 bet365. 0.5pts ew
Her saddle slipped last time where she was pulled up, in a race of which she went off at 4/1 and was quite well fancied. Her previous 2 runs were consistent, and that wasnt much of a surprise as she had the ability to beat sharks dime a dozen in a ptp, the latter is a very consistent 125 horse. So Karen’s gift, with an intact saddle should be capable of carrying on her former consistency, where she woukdnt need to improve much to feature very well here. Imo she is priced as if she was literally pulled up. -1
Wed No Bet
I’m aware that we are having quite a poor little run to start this month, it is always going to happen with variance in betting, however there is plenty of time left to turn that around, we wont be chasing, im just waiting for the right opportunities to do carry on as usual. There are some decent entries in the horizon.
17th 1.25 Saint cloud CELESTIN
1pt EW 6/1 bet365
He broke slowly last time, was always on the back foot, and was tenderly handled when it was clear he wasnt going to win. Irska who runs today and finished infront of him there, was always handy throughout the race, and was ridden for her life. If celestin breaks well here, I believe he is value at current odds, to reverse that form, which of he managed to do so, would leave him bang there at the business end of the race.
A clean break from the stalls is vital. -2
kempton 6.00 JONAH JONES 1pt EW 7/1 bet365. he was badly hampered 2 starts ago in a race which is worth watching back. This was a class 2. He has ran well since in class 2 company. He now drops in grade down to class 3, and somehow has managed to drop down 1 pound in the weights for his poly track debut.
This race is winnable for him and he is entitled to go very well here. -2
STOP LINE 5/1 1pt EW (5 places) sky
GAGNEUR 5/1 1pt EW (5 places) sky
STOP LINE Has ran some very credible races, and has been knocking on the door. His last race he ran very well to finish 3rd, 3L behind becquairainbow, the 4th loradame has since come out and bolted up in a similarly competitive race.
His previous race he diddnt have the pace of GAGNEUR, however he was running him down at the finish when again both were behind becquarainbow.
GAGNEUR has plenty of toe and it would be very dangerous for the opposition, should he be allowed to open up and go for home early, He will travel into this race very well, he is a little green, so it could be vital that in the closing stages, imo he should be taken to his right over the last to make use of the stands rail, there is a danger that He may well get lonely out in front, should he be in 1st place over the last as i expect him to be.
High king brings some quality open class form and has beaten stop line narrowly over fences, I’m of the opinion that the Guy Cherel owned STOP LINE has improved since and may narrowly get the verdict in that battle, however high king is a highly respected danger to our pair here, I just cant bring myself to back all 3. Therefore i have been as selective as I can be and decided to cut him.
Imo the market is very right here in terms of the front of the market, however imo they should be 7/2 co favourites rather than the current 5/1.
Hopefully it will be GAGNEUR infront at the last with STOP LINE attempting to run himself and high king down. If GAGNEUR does get caught on the run in, I’m banking on STOP LINE having the staying power to hopefully get the better of high king late on.
I expect BOTH of our selections to be in the first 5, so I make them BOTH a bet with the sky bet market which is EW 5 places.
We are going for a WIN AND A PLACE -2
3.00 Cheltenham BALLYANDY
1 pt EW 13/2 (6 places) sky
Despite being top weight, he is battle hardened, and this race should be a war of attrition of which is right up his street. He says the 2 miles very strongly. Monsieur leciq went very close in this race off 145 last year, on a line through him, ballyandy should be going close off 151 here. There is potential in the race such as Edwardstone who I do like for later assignments, however its ballyandy here for me today.
Imo the conservative route of 6 places at 13/2 and BOG with sky Is the best way to go should you be able to do so.
15/2 with 5 places however is Fine of you so wish. +0.23
2.15 Cheltenham AL DANCER
1 pt EW 8/1 (6 places) pp/ hills
He has the run already on the board this season beating a respectable horse in master tommytucker, who has since followed up.
Al dancer was travelling well in the lightning novice chase where he made a couple of novices mistakes and wasnt far off getting back up to beat mister Fisher, imo if that race was 2 1/2 miles, al dancer would have won.
I believe there is more improvement to come from al dancer at the intermediate trip. +0.45
Thursday/ Friday NO BET
12.45 compiegne MARTINS SPIRIT
1pt EW 9/2 bet365
Martin’s spirit had some classy flat form before being punted off the boards in a race which he was beaten into 3rd by the winner horse maha.
He was cruising when falling on his next Start.
He then took on horse maha again, jumped well, and it was well in the balance at the finish where horse maha showed the extra stamina and just edged ahead at the line.
I believe Martins spirit has improved with each start to date, coming off the flat, he is learning with each start over hurdles, imo he is the better long term prospect of the pair. They meet again, and Martin’s spirit is 2 pounds better off today, he should improve once again for the run, and I’d be hopeful that he can go very close here. -2
.1.45 huntingdon ROWLAND WARD
0.75 pts EW 13/2
I thought he was unlucky last time, I backed him, he was badly hampered when imo going well, it could be argued that he was well in contention. This has has kept his handicap mark down to 129, which is very fair imo.
His win beforehand reads well with thyme white and Goa lil behind off levels.
I’d be hopeful that he will be fit enough to do himself justice here. +
3.10 chepstow. COCONUT SPLASH
2pts EW 5/1. Hills
He won his ptp nicely before going to evan William’s, I liked his hurdles runs alot. He made a very good debut last year against the smart imperial alcazar. Before again running a stormer against son of Camas and king roland when falling whilst still in contention at the last. His win came in a fairly poor race, however he did it well enough. Imo this is quite a difficult opener with the likes of anemoi the obvious danger, however imo coconut SPLASH could be pretty smart over fences.
5/1 is very fair, I like him, I am hopeful that he can win here. +0
1.00 auteuil Hermes baie
8/1 (3places) ew extra bet365
He has ran with great credit to date, he was beaten into 3rd behind 2 of these last time, however not by far, and if you watch back all his races, its easy to make a case for him reversing the form of 2kg better terms here.
Faller at the 1st. Shame, as the form worked out perfectly during the race itself. -2
In the same race. 1.00 auteil
The same applies to BALADIN DE MESC
1pt insurebet (2 places) 14/1 PP
he is also on better terms and isn’t the best jumper of a fence so reverts to hurdles here and is considerably over priced imo.
I would advise you taking the insurebet with PP at 14/1
(If he is 2nd would be money back) -1
3.25 Auteuil qeenies cash
13/2 0.5pts EW bet365
She ran a poor race on her reappearance over fences, however before that, she asserted at the end of the race over hurdles, when well fancied, to be 2nd finishing infront of la doix who is shorter here in the betting, she is 2 pounds better off today, a reproduction of that form would see her go well here. A chance is taken that the switch back to hurdles will do the trick. -1
Aintree 1.00 Quoi de neuf 8/1
0.75 pts EW hills
Quoi de neuf won a decent ptp very readily before embarking purchased by evan Williams for £180,000. He jumped and travelled well throughout, the horse he easily beat, followed up in his ptp next time, the 3rd opened his account over hurdles before finishing 2nd to the very smart DARVER star on his novice chase debut.
Quoi de neuf opened his account over hurdles at the west time of asking, beating a decent mid 130s horse in redzor. With now 140 horses 3rd and 4th behind.
I can easily excuse his run next time in what was an absolute bog
His subsequent races were in big field quality handicap hurdles, where imo he ran with great credit.
He was given a mark of 133 over hurdles which imo is fair, however imo he is open to further improvement with the change of discipline such was the authority in which he won his ptp. The trainer came 2nd with present value here last year. Imo quoi de neuf is a more suitable candidate for this years renewal and therefore should have every chance of being involved here. +0.45
12.50 fontwell windance 0.5pts EW 16/1 bet365. Anthony honeyball is in fine form. Windance a 30k purchase in dec 2018 made his racecourse debut last time when well gambled on in a bumper. the horse that finished just behind him has won next time up over hurdles at taunton, beating a subsequent winner. The winner of the bumper itself that win dance ran in, is smart. There is no disgrace at all in being beaten by him 1st time up. The way windance stayed on that day at the end of the race, I believe there is improvement to come. The fav cost 100k and was beaten by a nice horse last time, however isn’t a world beater imo, therefore i see this race as winnable. -1
12 55 newbury. Amarillo sky 0.5 pts EW 15/2 PP
Won his ptp in March before being sold to colin tizzard for £280,000 The preceding two renewals of this race had been won by 2 very uselful horses in Andy Dufresne and Sporting John.
The time of Amarillo Sky’s heat was slightly the slower than that of Gars de sceaux, (now with gordon elliot) however he looked to win with something in hand in a race in a race which he and the runner-up pulled well clear, he travelled very well out front and jumped very fluently throughout.
Bowe added: “Amarillo Sky [by Westerner and a smart-looking winner at Borris House on March 1] is a slick jumper who travels very quickly, so I could see him being suited by dropping back to two miles in time”
This is undoubably a very tough opener. With soaring glory looking a very nice horse to me. i have heard a strong word for Hendo’s. Danehill kodiak has very classy flat form, and olly Murphy’s horse looks pretty useful.
However at the prices I find the potential of amarillo sky hard to ignore -1.
3.50 musselburgh ROXANYA 10/1 0.5pt EW bet365
She was unfancied when running in a decent bumper behind delvino running an awful race to be beaten by 83L.
On form she has no chance here, HOWEVER she was entered to run again in the race that Sir Gerhard hosed up in on the 31st oct. And was taken out of the races to be declared a non runner due to the ground conditions, as stated.
Previously noted quotes from musselburgh.
Crawford said: “The prize money at Musselburgh is good, particularly on New Year’s Day. Mind you it’s only good if you’re winning some of it”
“Our trips across are straightforward because we are based in the Larne area. We are back and forward often enough so we’ve got it down to a fine art”
They have made the effort to come up to musselburgh (390 Mile round trip) in the search of decent ground which she will get here, therefore I am of the opinion that they believe that wasn’t her true running which she showed on debut,
In the last 12 months They have come over from Ireland to the uk and struck with.
Streets of doyen
This looks to be considerably easier than the 2 races of which ROXANYA has been entered up over in Ireland.
And Connections have previously held an 18% strike rate at the track.
all of the above, makes me inclined to take a small chance on her here at the prices. -1
3.25 Exeter KILLER CLOWN 0.5pts EW 8/1 PP/ betfred (5 places)
Won a ptp nicely for colin Bowe before being purchased by Emma lavelle for £135,000 the 2nd from the race is yet to run, however the well held 3rd has managed to win a couple of chases on the bounce recently. Killer clown was well on top, jumped pretty well and won cosily asserting at the end of the race.
He managed to win a bumper on decent ground and has ran with great credit over hurdles, he finished 12L behind the big breakaway, with subsequent winners craigneiche and the wolf just in front of him, and just 1.25L behind Falco blitz receiving 6 pounds.
Killer clown has recieved a hurdles mark of 124 which i believe to be very reasonable, he is unexposed and now uses this mark to switch to fences. Everything I have seen in his ptp and over hurdles leads me to believe that he can improve on this mark with the switch of codes to his benefit. He is up to 3 miles here, which is the trip where he asserted in the closing stages of his ptp.
His early unseat last time was not of his own doing, and I would be happy to write that off completely.
Therefore I give him every chance of going well here, and would be hopeful that he can both have a clean round, and be involved in the finish of the race. -1
2.45 Hereford ECLAIR SURF 0.5pts EW @6/1 (hills/365)
Oscar Robertson jumped well in a ptp to finish 2nd, where the 3rd home who was beaten 7L in total , was then subsequently beaten a distance behind ECLAIR SURF on his next start. Eclair surf jumped beautifully that day, and went on to be purchased by Emma lavelle for £140,000.
On his hurdles debut, again he jumped well and won easily beating crozier and moroder at his ease. Moroder recently finished very closely matched in a handicap hurdle to holly james (who also runs here) where he was a shade unlucky late on.
Eclair surf went on to run in the challow, which was a big test of stamina (in the ground conditions) of which subsequently he wasnt up to and he made a tired late fall, he then ran in a decent class 4 novice hurdle at Exeter under a penalty, where he again weakened late on, however the race itself reads reasonably well in this context.
He reappears here over what i believe to be his correct trip of 2m4, I also believe that the switch to fences could well bring about improvement. The break since March hopefully brings him back to the encouraging form he showed early on, which therefore would see his hurdles mark of 120 as very workable over this discipline, imo he is running in a race of which is effectively a drop in grade in all but name. I’d be hopeful that he will be involved here. If for whatever reason he isn’t, they may need to look at his wind, and we can revisit him at a later date, as imo there is a decent horse in there. However i think it was as much that he has a fair bit of pace and I believe he was being ran over the wrong trip, so for tomorrow’s impending race, hopefully it will be the day that it all comes together. +0.1
1.10 cork. Indiana jones . 1pt win 11/4 bet365. This is a horse I have been waiting for. His form reads very well. Hopefully he obliges today. +2.75
12.43 compiegne Goodwin. 1.5 pts EW @4/1 bet365. Goodwin is a very talented individual, who has not always given his all in the finish, he got off the mark last time and is up to listed class here, I have always liked him, and I believe victory last time will give him a vital confidence booster, imo he can go on from there, and hopefully be more prolific. With a clear round I believe that He has every chance of victory here. Faller when going very well -3
October archives below
Finishing Total +1.23 pts
2.45 wetherby ROKSANA 1.5pts win 10/3 hills/365/betfred/ betvictor
Roksana imo wants all of 3 miles these days, she ran very creditably last season against the likes of Sumerville boy in open company, however last year she carried a hefty penalty.
Now without this, she receives 7 pounds from the geldings, and almost a stone from the stayers hurdle winner, which Imo makes her very interesting here. She should be very competitive. +5
Down royal 3.00 SAMCRO 3pts win @15/8 William hill/ unibet
Easy Game is match fit, he has taken a decent scalp in the storyteller, however he goes particularly well early season on the good ground he has had, the storyteller would go nowhere near winning a Ryanair, and I just cant have him being odds on to beat SAMCRO. Samcro a leading contender for the ryanair chase, won the marsh chase at the cheltenham festival in March where but for making a mistake at the last, imo he would have won handily by 3L going away. Even though he wont be fully revved up and gives away 2 pounds to the former, I still believe he has the beating of easy game. Fully fit he is a considerably superior horse imo, and long odds on,
1st time up, anything around or above 6/4 I feel is strong value, with a clear round, I expect victory for samcro.
Please now cashout MOMELLA . I wouldnt advise this EW bet with now only 2 places. Please replace at 9/2 1 pt win with hills. (Avail of the boost of you would like to) or for your own ease, the 4/1 at bet365 is acceptable. -1
3.28 newton abbot. MOMELLA
1pt EW 6/1 bet365
MOMELLA has tumbled down the ratings to a mark of 127. She has had a very long break and a wind OP. She also has the assistance of Brian Carver taking 5 pounds off. If she comes back to anything like she was, she could be very well in here. I am more than willing to take a chance at 6/1 advised to cashout this bet.
LONGHOUSE POET 2pts insurebet/ cover bet. 6/4 (3 places) bet365
Imo this effectively gives us almost a free bet at the win. An insurebet (cover bet) with 3 places is money back if you are 2nd or 3rd. And win if your 1st
Taken from our chelt review
“another who ran poorly here, I liked his previous runs, although I thought they made a bit too much use of him the start prior. Chasing looks his game, 3 Miles and hold up tactics imo would see considerable improvement. He’s a horse that could win a nice race and take a big scalp at a price imo (pre cheltenham)”
He comes in here with latest exhibition and run wild fred to beat. Run wild fred his no forlorn hope who improves throughout the season. Latest exhibition is a really nice horse without prior chasing experience
Longhouse poet imo will improve for a fence, he may be able to catch the pair cold here. I will be undoubatbly dissapointed if be finishes out the 3. -2
Very disappointing. No excuses. Winner won with plenty in hand imo.
1.40 taunton ESPRESSINO 0.5pts EW 17/2 sky (5 places)
Espressino went off favourite last time to beat the current market fav of this race, he was going ok when fell, and was previously tumbling down the ratings to a mark of 86 before he found his level, his trainer C.Down won this race last year with Midnight Midge. Although this may be a coincidence, its interesting enough for me to see expressino turning up here in the same race off a mark that he may be defy. I’m willing to take a small chance on him here. +5.31
4.10 taunton STORM HOME 12/1 0.5pts EW bet 365.
He is a long way from his ptp form of failing at the last when likely to beat subsequent multiple graded winner Getabird. However he has tumbled down the ratings to his lowest chase mark of 119. This imo is his easiest and most suitable assignment. He has shown to be in half decent form lately, where prior to his last run over hurdles, he had a couple of decent performances against better horses than this. If he can bring that form over to this discipline, he will give himself a chance, as the horses here with winning form, like harry frys earth leader, have just won a couple of average ptp races that diddnt take much winning. Therefore I’m hopeful that storm home will appreciate what i see as effectively a drop in class in all but name. Imo very unlucky and going well when tipping up. Imo deffinately one for a similar race. -1
12.50 chepstow ONLY THE BOLD 6/1 PP 1.5pts EW
Looked very smart when winning his ptp before subsequently being purchased by Evan Williams for £215,000, he quickened clear on the run in to win nicely, he makes his novice hurdle debut here over 2m3f which should be no issue. The 3rd from the race ilcoura has just won his bumper nicely as we speak, after being heavily gambled on last time when coming 2nd to a subsequent winner. Therefore only bold has substance to his form and solid credentials here.
The former trainer backs this up.
Warren Ewing hailed Only The Bold as “as good a horse as I’ve had” after the Tyrella maiden winner topped the Tattersalls February Cheltenham Sale on Friday when knocked down to Evan Williams for £215,000.
The five-year-old son of Jeremy provided the master of Bernice Stables with a tidy profit too, as he had been picked up for €46,000 at the 2018 Goffs Land Rover Sale.
“I’m delighted,” said Ewing. “I think this is an exceptionally good horse – I think he’s as good a horse as I’ve had. He’s a special horse and you’d expect to be seeing him back here next year.
“He’s always pleased me in everything he’s done and it’s very hard to do what he did on that ground at Tyrella.”
Therefore I believe he is a solid contender for today’s race. And will be very hopeful that he can get off the mark over hurdles at the first attempt -0.33
2.35 Bangor GEMIRANDE 0.5pt EW 10/1 PP
Well bred and also well regarded by his former trainer Isabelle Pacault
Gemirande has moved over from france having won his last start in a chase at Pau, he dictated throughout jumping well, and stayed on nicely when it looked like gramanee was coming to challenge.
His previous 3 bumper runs read fair, with his sole hurdles start reading considerably better, he finished 3rd retaining his valuable novice status, having possibly taken up the lead a shade early of a strong pace, losing 2nd just at the line with the 4th and 5th behind him going on to win their next start.
He is unlikely to be a future world beater
And It is not the easiest maiden hurdle to start in, However He has the advantage of prior experience here and I expect him to jump well throughout which certainly should be of advantage in a maiden hurdle.
He has been with Venetia William’s since the 11th of February, Any improvement made at all, should hopefully see him involved here.
I have no doubt, that he is capable of winning a maiden hurdle, and he is one of many I have been awaiting an entry for. -1
2.00 Bangor GOOD BOY BOBBY
2pt win hills.
I think on tomorrow’s terms, that evens looks a bit of a gift. I have just gone down and backed him accordingly. I expect him to go off infront, make use of his jumping and stamina at the trip. And ultimately stay infront for the win. +2
2.05 wexford sir Jack Thomas.
0.5pts EW 9/2 bet365
Sir Jack Thomas has been running with credit on the flat. He made his handicap debut over hurdles recently and shaped Pretty well. He is running on slightly terms, is undoubtably fit, and hopefully will make his presence felt here. -1
WE Are going back in on KILLER KANE. Add another 1pt EW now at 6/1 with bet365
Imo he is overpriced for the sole reason that nobody knows who he is.
Imo he needs to run to 125 to place. 135 could be good enough to win. He is capable. +1
12.47 Aintree. KILLER KANE 1pt EW 11/2 bet365. +0.75
Same reasoning as the antepost NH thread
now a TOTAL of 2pts EW on killer kane.
5.35 dundalk I AM MAGNETIC 1 PT EW 4/1 William hill (4 places)
I AM MAGNETIC had some smart entries early in the season, imo he has improved with each run, the form of his head defeat last time towards well in relation to this race. I do believe that he is on the incline, and with a 7 pound claimer now on board. This may well be where he gets his head infront. -2
3.00 cheltenham. FIX SUN
0.5pts EW at 8/1 hills (6 places)
We backed him last time where he was non runner. He was a big weak individual last year who is open to plenty of improvement. He was beaten at long odds on on his last start, however made a race ending mistake, so don’t take it literally. He should travel very well on the bridle throughout the race, and assuming that he comes off it, I would be hoping that he can find more. He should be bang there turning in for home. -1
2.15 Carlisle RIBBLE VALLEY 4pts win. 10/11 888sport
This one is optional as he’s so short. But it’s hard for me not to put him up when I have backed so strongly myself. and ofcourse will be added to the P&L
I like him alot, he has a high cruising speed and plenty of quality, he gives weight away here however I personally see him as well able to do so. Assuming he has strengthened up over the summer, he should take this race. in the foreseeable future, imo he wont be disgraced what so ever at graded level. +3.64
2.57 lingfield FAUSTINOVICK 7/2 williamhill. 2pts EW
He chased him andy dufresne in a ptp with conflated a held 3rd behind the pair before falling, this form reads well, he jumps well, and should be well capable of improving on what he did over hurdles, conditions of the race should work out well for him, with only hurdles form and not his ptp experience considered. The step up in distance should also strongly suit.
HOLD THAT TAUGHT also in this race, was bought by Venetian William’s for £220,000 after easily beating battle of actium in his ptp, battle of actium has gone on to be a decent bumper horse for Joseph o’brien, HOLD THAT TAUGHT is markedly up in trip here and worth noting for the future. Hold fire for now imo, However if he was to drift markedly to around 10/1. This also may see him worth taking a chance on here imo. -4
3.10 fontwell THE RUSSIAN DOYEN 12/1 William hill 0.5pts EW
Kisses for katie may be the one to beat having gone up 4 pounds for falling at the last when bang there. However I’m willing to take a chance on the Russian doyen here. The Russian doyen in context to the rest of the field has dropped down the weights having ran against far superior rivals to today’s opposition, he is being targeted at the paddy power gold cup over fences, so although he will come on for the run, he should be ready enough to do himself justice here. 12/1 somewhat underestimates his chances and despite the likes of K.F katie in the field there are also quite a few harshly treated for winning very poor quality races. +0.70
1.07 compiegne MICA MALPIC. 15/8 1pt win bet365. Refer to our members horses to follow thread, where potential triumph hurdle horse Mica Malpic won the prix grandak nicely on debut beating PRUNAY who was subsequently placed at graded level. In a race full of winners this looks the strongest form. The nicole pair are unexposed, however I’d have thought Mica Malpic will go off closer to evens to carry his penalty, rather than the current 15/8. I’d be hopeful that he is good enough to win here, before stepping up to graded level. Where the Grade 1 prix Cambaceres may be on the horizon. Likely injured. -1
4.30 Windsor paraqueen
0.5 pts EW at 25/1 bet365
Has been in poor form however won this last year by 7L (also in testing conditions). Then was also just beaten a head at her next appearance at the track. It could just be that she is a Windsor specialist. And shes back down to that mark of 54 where just beaten here. +2.63
In total she has had 3 runs at Windsor. 2 wins and a head defeat. Whilst making no impact elsewhere.
4.30 Windsor BALLYDOYLE 0.5 pts EW
runs here for Gary Moore.
He had some fair form in Germany and france. He made a poor start over hurdles before winning on the all weather off a mark if 62. He now switches back to turf and the handicapper has taken a chance by dropping to 59. The claimer on board effectively drops him another 5 pounds. He has consistent form on very testing conditions. At 14/1 I think hes worth taking a small chance on here. -1
2.40 plumpton. Simon the great
0.5pts EW at 5/1
He hasn’t won for 2years however this is a poor race and he has his chance. He has tumbled down the weights, and most importantly is back up to 2 and a half miles here, he stays out the trip well at this level and imo should find this considerably easier than last time, a 3 pound claimer is on board. So if he is going to win one, this is it. -1
3.40 NAAS SOUL SEARCH 1.5pts EW 9/2 PP herself and etneya have the best current form in the book, soul search has ran into plenty of good horses and has ran consistently well, she steps up to a mile here having stayed on well in her races over 7f previously, this could well be the trick in getting her head infront. I think she has leading claims here, and i will be very dissapointed if she is out the 4. -3
Fortunes Melody 1.35 auteuil
Hotesse Du Chenet (FR) beat Fortunes Melody last time, however the latter beat her narrowly twice previously giving away weight. Now the roles are reversed and this may well be enough to swing the form around once again. 7/2 imo is a bit of value about doing so. -1
1.50 uttoxeter EDEN DU HOUX 0.5 pts EW 7/1 bet 365
his ptp form reads well enough, and gives him experience of jumping fences, he was very smart in bumpers then slowly started to show his way over hurdles ending in a decent handicap hurdle of finishing behind mc fabulous, and very close to fergal o’Brien’s horse which beat emitom on his chase debut. His mark should be workable and I would be hopeful that he can go well in a very competitive race. -1
FLEGMATIK IS THE ONLY BET FOR TOMORROW
12.50 Carlisle FLEGMATIK 9/1 bet365. 0.5pts EW
Flegmatik started his career in france, he was ridden forcefully and jumped beautifully round the course over the fixed brush hurdles, he was beaten by some very smart horses, and stayed on well to finish not far behind saint roi.
Having jumped the fixed brush around Auteuil, He should have no issue with fences here. His hurdles mark used here is ok.
despite him not being the best of these over hurdles, the 2 mile trip will suit him most of all, with the change of discipline almost certain to show improvement. +5.63
NEW BET GOES AT THE TOP
12.50 Auteuil. Becquarainbow 0.5pts EW 6/1 Bet365. (4 places) Becquarainbow runs here for Francois nicolle, in the betting he is the 2nd choice of the stable, however on form I wouldnt agree. He was giving 12 pounds to prince de Roume when beaten 4 1/2 Lengths in a simular race which has worked out nicely. He is only giving 4 pounds away to him today. Imo this is the best form in the race. The revised terms should see him reversing places and being involved at the business end of the race. +0.1
2.15 nantes. Happy monarch 1pt win. 2/1 bet365
Happy monarch reverts back to hurdles after running up a very strong sequence over fences. Where he beat the likes of fandango, bernardo bellotto and femme d’ Action who are all very solid listed performers. He receives 14 pounds from forclaz here and imo happy monarch should take all the beating. -1
1.15 Tipperary. KATIBA 0.5 pts EW @ 14/1 bet365. I’m willing to take a chance on KATIBA here, it’s a considerable drop in quality to what she has been racing against, she races here off a mark of 90, she has slowly dropped down from a peak of 98, and what interests me is that the races in which she has dropped have been over further, when she showed her best form she was getting headed in the closing stages over 1m2. So it was a surprise to me, to see dermot weld step her up in trip, which saw her not seeing out her races and has resulted in the mark she has now. She drops down to 1m1 here, if she still has the ability that she looked to have in her earlier career THIS IS HER TRIP. If she is good enough she will be involved. And I’m willing to take a chance at a nice price. -1
2.45 newmarket. TEREBELLUM 11/2 4 (places) 1pt EW. PP/sky
I think there may be an opportunity here for her to make the running and kick for home early. there is an abundance of hold up horses behind that will be coming at her, but if james doyle manages to set the fractions right, she sees out the trip well and may last hime. she has ran consistentently well at a high level and i expect her to turn up and rubber race here., despite Nazzeef beating her prior, nazeef hasn’t showed the same consistency and is best watched. In conclusio i will be dissapointed if terabellum is out the 4 here. With her having a live win chance. -2
Lingfield 2.1. NAT LOVE 0.5 pts EW at 6/1.
Nat love ran at thirsk 3 starts ago over a mile I’m a class 6, going close behind chalet which has worked out pretty decent form, with the winner going in again subsequently. He hasn’t really improved on that in 2 outings over 7f in class 5 events However looked as if a step back up in trip would help. He drops back onto class 6 company back up in trip to the mile off just 2 pounds higher than going close at chelmsford. Priced at 6/1 here. He should have a decent chance of going close here. +0.1
galway 5.15 diamond turf 7/1 0.5pts EW bet365 diamond turf hasn’t managed to win in 2 years, however has ran in some good races over hurdles. In His 1st starts over fences he ran over 2m5 which was too far. Since then he has dropped down in trip to today’s trip over 2m2, Where he has been narrowly beaten on his last 2 starts by horses that have managed to run up minor winning sequences. For his 1st handicap run, He has gone up slightly in the handicap by 3 pounds, however he is decent value for this. I’d be hopeful that he can pick up where he left off and can go close here today. -1
2.05 navan ivabatt 11/2 bet365. 0.5 pts EW Despite his long odds on all 3 starts. His form is very strong. He showed his 2nd start to be no fluke, by finishing a close enough 4th of 4th behind lipzinner. he has yet to go close to winning however he has had quality all around him. This assignment is far easier than the task he has had on his last 2 starts. -1
1.15 Ffos lass TRUCKERS PASS 1pt win 2/1 betvictor.
Truckers pass ran well in a ptp finishing a close 2nd before being purchased at the sales for £180,000. On his debut under rules he was narrowly beaten in a bumper by soaring glory who is highly regarded, then went on to find one to good again in his next start. However he wasnt a typical compact bumper horse and Obstacles should be the making of him, he jumped well in his ptp so there should be no issue in that department. Today’s race doesn’t look that deep on paper, and looks a fair opportunity for him to get off the mark over the minimum trip. Before possibly stepping up in distance at a later date. -1
3.00 newmarket. HAPPY POWER 5/1 0.5 pts EW. Happy power has always ran consistently well in group races. He won readily 2 starts ago and followed up nicely last time with snazzy jazzy behind.
He ran well behind limato on his last visit to the track. And more positive tactics seem to have been the key since then. He stays out the trip well so im hoping they continue to keep him up on the pace, with pogo potentially making the running, and make use of his stamina at the trip. +3
Chepstow 2.10 LANGER DAN 0.5 pts EW 6/1 (hills) I backed him for the fred winter where he ran a very solid race in defeat. He is 3 pounds worse off with blacko here who went off fav for that race. But I think the 3 pounds is fair for the experience of running well in a similar yet more competative race. he is up close to the top of the weights but I do see him as the best horse in the race right now. He should go well here. -1
3.35 newmarket. PRETTY GORGEOUS
1pt EW 7/2 skybet (4 places)
I like her alot. Her and shale have traded finishing positions of late, and both bring strong form to the table. Pretty gorgeous travels well through her races and possesses plenty of tactical speed, the ground conditions here are in her favour. she possesses the ability to win this however imo she needs holding on to for a shade longer before making her challenge. That could be the difference between losing and placing here. +4.2
York 2.00 BEN MACDUI 0.5 pts EW 6/1 sky/hills. Imo ben macdui has the best form in the book, he ran on well to win his maiden before a fine 2nd place finish in the molecombe behind steel bull. He was then beaten in a strong race at york, the 6th has followed up twice since, and the 7th placed horse Politics had previously finished 1 3/4 L behind regional when doing all his best work late. This was his 2nd run since then and I believe that he had improved in that time, which imo leaves BEN MACDUI infront of regional here. Our selection may attempt to make all, if headed he shows a willing attitude which should bode well for the step up to 6f today. I will be hoping that he is involved at the business end of the race here. -1
2.20 new market. ONE RULER
9/2 0.5 pts EW 888 bet.
He has been very solid and has some nice form relative this race, 3rd last time wasnt good enough, however in context to here, that effort may be good enough for victory. I would like to think he can build on from that, he may have an easier time being able to dictate affairs. He should ho close here. +3
2.55 CHINDT 4/1 william hill 0.5pts EW. He stays on very strongly in his races, his form has worked out very nicely. This is an extremely strong race, however the staying power which he has shown, should bring him into the races in the closing stages, where he may stay on best of all to get up kn the shadow of the post. -1
Curragh 2.10 PREAMBLE 0.5pts EW 13/2 hills. He ran well on debut before following up that promise with any authoritative win last time out, he is progressive, the form of his win was pretty well, with colfer kay recently going down narrowly in a decent maiden. This is undoubatbly a step up in class. One which i believe he is capable of taking. The others have a higher level of form, however are largely exposed imo, they are running to a level so far, of which i believe preamble is capable of achieving. Hopefully he goes well here. -1
Goodwood 2.55 ONASSIS 0.5pts EW 9/2 William hill. There are some progressive fillies in the field, however onassis sets the bench mark to aim at. She has by far and away the best form in the book going into this, there should be pace on here, which will help as she stays out the trip very well. I would be very hopeful that she goes close here. She has a favourites chance of doing so. +2.7
1.00 Auteuil. BALADIN DE MESC
1pt win 9/2 bet365.
He has the best form of these over hurdles, being in and around the classy magneto. When 11L infront of kapking who also runs here today. BALADIN de MESC did fall on his chase debut, so there are risks attached, however in that races he was going off at 6/4 favourite to beat premier vert, who is very closely matched to today’s fav lossange vert. So the 9/2 for today’s slightly more difficult task appeals comparatively. Hopefully he has a clear round, then he should be on the premises at the business end of the race. -1
1.40 Windsor DREAM WITH ME 0.5pts EW 5/1 sky bet /888 sport.
He has been disappointing However has ran in better races. He can be slowly away, so hopeful he breaks well today as this is his 1st real opportunity. He is facing lesser horses here, and has dropped down the handicap, he finished well infront of the horse that is directly above him in both the handicap rating and the betting market. I see no reason why this should be reversed as the race she did win at the track was very weak. Dream with me should find this race easier to travel into, he stays well, so imo aslong as he breaks well, more forward tactics should benefit him. The head gear is on, so If he is going to win one. For a horse that cost 700,000 This is it. +0.2
MACHIOS 0.5pts EW 11/2 skybet
IN THE SAME RACE. Also at the top of the weights machios, pulled hard but stayed on well over course and distance last time, the 2nd has won since. The winner ran a brilliant race upped to class 3 next time, and the 4th went very close next time also in a class 3 event, therefore his 3.5L beating in the class 5 looks strong, we are going in double handed looking for a win AND a place. +0.1
DARSI IN THE PARK 0.5pts EW 7/1 (hills)
he ran in 3 ptps, on his 1st he was coming to win and fell at the last.
On her 2nd he was well held by the ill fated passageway however infront of some fair horses, before coming down again.
On his 3rd he duly obliged.
It has taken time, but he is showing the promise of his ptp’s over hurdles. he was won well in a modest event. Before running just as well when beaten in a decent class 3 event.
he has shown to be as good over hurdles as any of these, and his form to my eye, seems to be on a progressive line, with still something to give.
The switch to fences may allow him to carry on, in an upward curve, he needs a clear round, and if he manages to do so, he should be very much coming on the scene at the end of the race. With a bit of luck, for victory.
GOLDEN JEWEL 2.15 punchestown
1pt EW at 8/1 skybet (4places)
I have been waiting patiently for golden jewel to recieve an entry, his run 2 starts ago was a huge step up and showed promise. However his run next time screamed it, he had a horrendous passage and was a ridiculously unlucky loser in a very competitive handicap hurdle, the way he came home there showed that a step up to 2 and a half miles should be no issue at all. I dont mind him going up 4 pounds, as he was on a steep upwards curve.
However My only worry is that he may need this run, and he may be using it to straighten him up for a bigger pot. However I cant not back him. So anyone who has a tracker. Pop him in. If it’s not today, apologies. but you will make your money on him. SPEND 3 MINUTES OF YOUR TIME WATCHING HUS LAST RUN. He had to switch around the whole field just before the final flight when coming to WIN up the rail. -2https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2020-02-01/leopardstown/561896/ladbrokes-hurdle-extended-handicap-hurdle-0-150-grade-b
Finishing Total Stakes April 1. Staked 417pts +130.21pts.
+£2,604.20 to a £20 stake